strategic regional analysis · the strategic regional analysis (sra) is a key planning document...

78
Strategic Regional Analysis Fall 2014

Upload: others

Post on 24-Jul-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Strategic Regional Analysis

Fall 2014

Page 2: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Overview of the Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA)

2

The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having

at least 80% of students attending SPF green or blue schools in every region. The SRA details the current state of

school performance and capacity by region and identifies the gaps for each. This document is intended to identify the

areas in need of additional quantity of seats, quality of seats, or both.

A key subsequent process to the SRA is the Call for New Quality Schools that invites applications to open new schools

that will address the gaps identified in this report.

Alignment to the Denver Plan

Demographic/Capacity gap: compares the number of DPS students today (and forecast in 5 years) to the number of

seats available in the region. The forecast is updated once a year in the spring.

Capture gap: identifies whether students are leaving the region for other offerings, indicating a potential need for

school improvements and/or new/different offerings targeted to attract and retain students.

Performance gap: identifies gaps in the performance of the schools in the region.

Gaps in ECE: identifies unmet demand for preschool services; the mill levy has prioritized funding for expanding

access to preschool seats.

Gaps in secondary specialized programs: identifies gaps in intensive pathway options, recognizing that the needs

of students who are off-track are not all the same.

Organization of Regional Gaps

Page 3: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Tiered Support Framework

The Tiered Support Framework process prioritizes and addresses performance gaps, including

those highlighted in the SRA, for our most struggling schools through: – An annualized process that provides early warning indicators for identifying and tiering our most struggling schools

– A consistent set of data-driven criteria for all school types (district-managed, innovation, charter) that includes SPF

data as well as other indicators correlated to student outcomes.

– A data-driven framework for aligning intensive supports and/or intervention decisions with proactive

communications and annual progress monitoring

The Tiered Support Framework tiering and recommendations will be presented in November

3

Page 4: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Regional Summary: Far Northeast

4

Key gaps Changes in

Progress

Remaining

open issue Notes

Dem

og

rap

hic

/Ca

pac

ity G

ap

s

Preschool capacity Though 150 seats have been added or approved to

the region through new capacity, a shortage

remains due to limited community providers.

Elementary seating capacity Jacobs campus opened in 2014 with Highline

Academy. KIPP (2015) and STRIVE (2016) are

both approved to open.

Middle School seating capacity Opening of a new school may be delayed until 2016

High School seating capacity Adequate program capacity once the East Quad is

complete.

Off-track offerings Legacy IP HS may be postponed to open until

2016, but will then meet demand needs.

Pe

rfo

rma

nce

Ga

ps

Elementary school performance:

(1,687 seats, or 19% are orange/red) 19% of regional seats are SPF red/orange. See

page 69 for list of tiered supports schools.

Secondary school performance:

(1,411 seats, or 9% are orange/red) Though many programs have made academic

progress, performance gaps remain, leading to

tiered supports for several schools (page 69).

Page 5: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Regional Summary: Near Northeast

5

Key gaps Changes in

Progress

Remaining

open issue Notes

Dem

og

rap

hic

/Ca

pac

ity

Ga

ps

Preschool capacity Regional options are serving demand.

Elementary seating capacity: Will need to seed new ES near Stapleton in 2016,

with a permanent facility needed in 2017.

Middle School seating capacity Will need to seed new MS in Greater Park Hill

Stapleton zone in 2016, with a facility in 2017.

High School seating capacity NNE HS opens in 2015 to serve demand and will

require additional seats in 2018.

Off-track offerings Regional options are serving demand.

Pe

rfo

rma

nc

e

Ga

ps

Elementary school performance:

(1,381 seat, or 9% are orange/red) Tiered supports have been implemented in schools

north of City Park to improve performance (see pg.

69 for full list of tiered schools).

Secondary school performance:

(2,006 seats, or 8% are orange/red) Tiered supports have been implemented to improve

performance (see pg. 69)

Page 6: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Regional Summary: Northwest

6

Key gaps Changes in

Progress

Remaining

open issue Notes

Dem

og

rap

hic

/Ca

pac

ity G

ap

s

Preschool capacity Regional options are serving demand.

Elementary seating capacity: Regional options are serving demand.

Middle School seating capacity Regional options are serving demand.

High School seating capacity Regional options are serving demand.

Off-track offerings Regional options are serving demand.

Pe

rfo

rma

nce

Ga

ps

Elementary school performance:

(2,395 seats, or 25% are orange/red) Tiered supports have been implemented in several

schools to improve performance (page 69).

Secondary school performance:

(1,285 seats, or 8% are orange/red) Tiered supports have been implemented in several

schools to improve performance (page 69).

Page 7: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Regional Summary: Southeast

7

Key gaps Changes in

Progress

Remaining

open issue Notes

Dem

og

rap

hic

/Ca

pac

ity G

ap

s

Preschool capacity Hampden Heights campus will help address

seating shortage. Demand should be monitored to

determine if additional ECE capacity is needed.

Elementary seating capacity: Hampden Heights campus will address far

southeast shortage.

Middle School seating capacity Regional options are serving demand.

High School seating capacity Regional options are serving demand.

Off-track offerings Currently there are no programs in the region to

meet the student demand.

Pe

rfo

rma

nc

e

Ga

ps

Elementary school performance:

(No orange/red seats) 100% of SE elementary seats are blue or green

Secondary school performance:

(No orange/red seats) 100% of SE secondary seats are blue or green

Page 8: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Regional Summary: Southwest

8

Key gaps Changes in

Progress

Remaining

open issue Notes

Dem

og

rap

hic

/Ca

pac

ity

Ga

ps

Preschool capacity Regional options are serving demand.

Elementary seating capacity: STRIVE Ruby Hill opened in 2014. Regional

options are now serving demand.

Middle School seating capacity Compass Academy (2015), STRIVE MS (2016)

are approved to open.

High School seating capacity Regional options are serving demand.

Off-track offerings Permanent location needed for Summit.

Pe

rfo

rma

nce

Ga

ps

Elementary school performance:

(1,252 seats, or 25% are orange/red) While many programs have increased

performance, several are still receiving tiered

support (page 69).

Secondary school performance:

(3,048 seats, or 18% are orange/red) While several charter options provide high quality

seats for middle school students, additional

performance issues remain (page 69).

Page 9: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Overall Board of Education Decisions for Fall 2014

Program Locations for Schools Approved in June 2014 to open in 2015

Banneker Jemison STEM Academy - NNE

Compass Academy MS – SW

Hampden Heights School of Expeditionary Learning - SE

High Tech Early College: Global Leadership Academy - FNE

Kepner International Dual Language Academy - SW

KIPP Colorado Elementary School – FNE

KIPP Montbello Collegiate High School - FNE

NNE High School - NNE

Near Northeast Community Engagement School - NNE

REACH Charter School – NNE

Rocky Mountain Prep Elementary School – Region not yet determined

Roots Elementary - NNE

RiseUp Community School – NW

STRIVE Prep High School - FNE

STRIVE Prep- Southwest - SW

9

Page 10: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Timeline for regional strategies for 2015-16 school year

Spring 2014 Fall 2014 Winter 2015 Spring 2015

District Activities

Board Decisions

Program approvals

and facility placements

(if applicable)

Remaining facility

placements and

enrollment system

changes

Charter renewals and

school intervention

decisions

Program approvals

and facility placements

for the 2016-17 school

year

Fall SRA (this

document) highlighting

capacity and

performance gaps

Call for Quality School

recommendations to

the Board

Spring SRA with 5-

year enrollment

forecast

Launch Call for Quality

Schools based on this

documents gaps by

region

2015-16 enrollment

projections, budgeting,

and hiring begins

10

School/TSF

Intervention Decision

Recommend for Tier

Support Framework

supports and

interventions

Page 11: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

District Enrollment Growth: DPS is the fastest growing urban district in the US

11

DPS Enrollment Since 2001

72,437 72,490 72,188 72,565 72,652 73,013 73,503 74,564

77,292

79,423

81,870

84,424

87,398

89,445

Note: Connections Academy enrollment was excluded.

To keep pace with enrollment

increases of almost 15,000 students

since 2008, DPS will add more than

15,000 seats between the 2008 &

2012 bond programs as well as TIF

programs. These seats will help

address the additional 6,500

students that are forecasted to

enroll by 2018.

Page 12: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

District Enrollment Forecast: Additional 6,500 students by 2018

12

District Enrollment

Drivers of Enrollment Growth

Note: 2018 forecast holds the number of ECE students and students living outside Denver, but attending a DPS school, as a constant

number (i.e. 2013 = 2018). If additional ECE funding is available, the forecasted number of students may be higher in 2018.

1. Increased capture rates

2. Continued residential development

3. Increases in student age population in the City of Denver

43,788 44,872 46,097 47,298 49,088 51,823

15,336 15,662 16,343 17,049 17,640 19,650

19,228 18,889 19,430 20,077 20,670

22,380 78,352 79,423 81,870

84,424 87,398

93,853

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2018

E-5th 6th-8th 9th-12th E-12

Page 13: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

District Forecast: By 2018, DPS will add about 2,800 elementary students, 2,000

middle students, and 1,700 high students

13

Elementary Student Forecast • By 2018, elementary enrollment will increase 2,735 students from 49,088 in

2013 to 51,823 in 2018, or 6% growth.

• Growth in the FNE accounts for 36% of the total growth, with the NNE

accounting for 35%.

• FNE will add about 1,000 students

• NNE will add about 975 students

Middle Student Forecast • DPS middle school student population will grow by about 2,000 students in

2018 or 11% growth (17,640 in 2013 to 19,650 in 2018).

• Growth in the NNE accounts for 41% of the total growth, with the FNE

accounting for 33%.

• NNE will add about 825 students

• FNE will add about 770 students

High Student Forecast • The high school student population will grow about 1,700 students by 2018, or

8% growth (20,670 in 2013 to 22,380 in 2018).

• Growth in the FNE accounts for 40% of the total growth, with the NNE

accounting for 36%).

• FNE will all about 690 students

• NNE will about 620 students

Page 14: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

District SPF Summary by Grade Level

2014-15 data is based on 2014 enrollment projections.

1. Elementary: 3,100 additional elementary students are served in a blue or green school, 11% increase. 66% of elementary

students now attend a green or blue school. There are 275 less elementary students attending orange or red schools.

2. Middle: 705 more middle school students are served in a blue or green school, a 7% increase. 61% of middle school

students now attend a green or blue school. Roughly 20% of students attend a red or orange MS, in line with 2013-14.

3. High: SPF performance declined. The % of students attending at blue or green seat declined from 53% to 51%.

Additionally, the % of students attending a red or orange school increased from 12% to 19%.

Key Observations

Note: Year under bar reflects enrollment that school year, SPF rating from previous year.

14

Page 15: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Far Northeast SPF Map: Elementary Schools

15

Page 16: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Far Northeast SPF Map: Secondary Schools

16

Page 17: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Far Northeast SPF Map: Alternative Education Secondary Schools

17

Page 18: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Far Northeast Regional Summary: Demographic/Capacity Gaps

Regional Overview: Residential development will lead to continued enrollment growth going forward, necessitating

further capital investments to meet demand. Programs already approved will provide adequate capacity to the region

through 2017. Performance issues remain at the elementary level, particularly in Montbello. Choice data shows families

are staying in the region at the secondary level as a result of higher performing schools.

Key gaps Steps Taken Strategies going forward

De

mo

gra

ph

ic/C

ap

ac

ity G

ap

s

Preschool capacity

Opened Oakland Fall 2014, 48 seats.

Opened Highline Academy FNE Fall

2014, 32 seats. Opening KIPP and

adding ECE to Academy 360 in Fall

2015.

Explore constructing an ECE center at

Green Valley Ranch if seating shortage

persists despite program openings.

Elementary seating capacity: Montbello Board approved KIPP and STRIVE ES to

open in the FNE in 2015. Adequate capacity in the neighborhood.

Elementary seating capacity: Green

Valley Ranch

Opening Highline Academy FNE in 2014.

Board approved KIPP and STRIVE ES to

open in the FNE in 2015.

Adequate capacity in the neighborhood.

Middle School seating capacity Likely delay of High Tech Middle School

in 2016.

With new middle school capacity, there

will be adequate capacity in the region.

High School seating capacity KIPP and STRIVE HS approved to open

in 2015.

Physical capacity beyond that already

planned/underway will be needed at East

Quad campus in 2017

Off-track offerings Board approval of Legacy IP HS to serve

behavioral-needs students in the FNE.

With the opening of Legacy, there will be

adequate capacity.

18

Page 19: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Far Northeast Regional Summary: Performance & Choice Gaps

Key gaps Steps Taken Strategies going forward

Pe

rfo

rma

nc

e G

ap

s

Elementary school performance:

(1,687 seats, or 19% are orange/red)

Closed Northeast Academy and SOAR

at Oakland.

Several regional schools are receiving

tiered supports (page 69).

Secondary school performance:

(1,411 seats, or 9% are orange/red)

Completed the phase-out of

Montbello HS.

Continued supports for secondary

schools in the turnaround cohorts (page

69).

Charter schools up for renewal:

DSST GVR HS, KIPP Montbello MS,

Sims-Fayola 6-12.

Ch

oic

e G

ap

s Elementary schools:

Very high regional participation along with high percent of families getting one of their preferences.

Green Valley Ranch and McGlone are very popular options, while Amesse and Omar D Blair are less popular with families.

Secondary gaps:

Gaps in level of interest in regional programs. DSST and STRIVE GVR are very popular while Sims-Fayola, Noel Community Arts,

and Collegiate Prep have lower levels of interest.

19

Regional Overview: Residential development will lead to continued enrollment growth going forward, necessitating

further capital investments to meet demand. Programs already approved will provide adequate capacity to the region

through 2017. Performance issues remain at the elementary level, particularly in Montbello. Choice data shows families

are staying in the region at the secondary level as a result of higher performing schools.

Page 20: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

FNE Elementary Performance

Gaps

1. 19% of students in the FNE are attending a red/orange school at the ES level in the FNE in 2014 versus 33% in 2013.

2. Amesse, SOAR-GVR, and DCIS Ford remain red/orange. While SOAR Oakland closed, there are still more red/orange

seats in 2014 than there were two years ago.

3. Greenwood and Waller both dropped from SPF green to SPF yellow.

Additional Observations

1. 49% of seats are blue/green in 2014 versus 51% in 2013.

2. Green Valley Ranch Elementary, the only regional SPF blue school, dropped to green.

3. KIPP Montbello Collegiate Prep 5th grade represents the 76 seats in blue.

2014-15 enrollment data are projections. 20

School Name

2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

Green Valley Elementary

Lena Archuleta Elementary School

Marrama Elementary School

McGlone

Omar D. Blair Charter School

Farrell B. Howell ECE-8 School

Marie L. Greenwood Academy

Florida Pitt-Waller ECE-8 School

Maxwell Elementary School

Academy 360

Monarch Montessori

DCIS at Ford

Amesse Elementary School

SOAR at Green Valley Ranch

SOAR Oakland (Closed)

Page 21: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

FNE Middle School Performance

Gaps

1. 13% of students in the FNE are attending a red/orange school at the MS level in the FNE in 2014 versus 0% in 2013.

2. Both Sims Fayola and Noel Community Arts decreased their SPF rating to red.

3. STRIVE - Montbello and MLK Early College both decreased their SPF rating.

Additional Observations

1. 54% of seats are blue/green in 2014 versus 67% in 2013.

2014-15 enrollment data are projections. 21

School Name 2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

STRIVE Prep - GVR

DSST: Green Valley Ranch MS

KIPP Montbello College Prep

STRIVE Prep - Montbello

Martin Luther King Jr. MS

DCIS at Montbello MS

Noel Community Arts School MS

Sims Fayola Intl. MS

Page 22: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

FNE High School Performance

Gaps

1. 31% of students in the FNE are attending a red/orange school at the MS level in the FNE in 2014 versus 11% in 2013.

2. Both Sims Fayola and Noel Community Arts both decreased their SPF rating to red.

3. With the SPF decreases at both High Tech Early College and MLK, only 17% of regional high school seats are green/blue

versus 51% a year ago.

Additional Observations

1. 17% of seats are blue/green in 2014 versus 51% in 2013.

2. Sims Fayola’s SPF decreased 15 percentage points and is now SPF red.

2014-15 enrollment data are projections. 22

School Name 2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

DSST: Green Valley Ranch

High-Tech Early College

Martin Luther King Jr. Early College

DCIS at Montbello

Collegiate Preparatory Academy

Noel Community Arts School

Sims Fayola Intl. Academy Denver

Montbello High School (Closed) N/A

Page 23: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

FNE Alternative High School Performance

Gaps

1. While Vista Academy is SPF yellow, PUSH Academy performance continues to be a concern.

Additional Observations

1. PUSH Academy increased their SPF by 22 percentage points.

2014-15 enrollment data are projections. 23

School Name

2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

Vista Academy

P.U.S.H.Academy

Page 24: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Capture Gaps: Continued strong HS enrollment trends, though slowing at MS

24

Enrollment in FNE Schools Percent of FNE Students

Leaving the District

FNE has experienced strong enrollment trends for the past several years, though 2013 is the first year where some trends are beginning to

slow at middle school.

FNE enrollment continues to increase at transition grades, though growth appears to be slowing at 6th grade.

Since 2011, about 200 more 6th grade students and about 325 more 8th grade students have enrolled in a FNE school.

In addition to more students enrolling in a FNE school, fewer families are leaving the district at transition grades.

It’s important to note that, similar to 6th grade enrollment trends, there was a slight increase in 5th grade families leaving the district for 6th grade

in 2013.

1,029

773

1,261

996

1,241

1,097

6th 9th

2011 2012 2013

Key Observations

11.9

18.0

16.1

12.1

15.2

13.7

8.9

11.5

13.3

9.8 10.8

12.4

5th 8th District K-11th

2010 2011 2012 2013

Page 25: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

2018 Forecast: Strong enrollment growth in FNE will continue, with an additional

2,400 students by 2018

The majority of the forecasted growth in the FNE will be east of Chambers Road and primarily due to increased student

yields in existing homes and new residential developments.

Gateway (FNE-C), is forecasted to increase 1,463 students, with an increase of 743 students in GVR (FNE-B) by 2018.

At the middle and high school levels in Montbello, DPS will see enrollment gains as capture rates continue to improve as

improvements of FNE schools continue.

25

8,970 9,977

3,829 4,498

4,283

4,970

17,082 19,445

2013 2018

ES MS HS Total

Key Observations

FNE Forecast

ES: +11%

+1,007

HS: +16%

+687

MS: +18%

+669

Page 26: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Near Northeast SPF Map: Elementary Schools

26

Page 27: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Near Northeast SPF Map: Secondary Schools

27

Page 28: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Near Northeast SPF Map: Alternative Secondary Schools

28

Page 29: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Near Northeast Regional Summary: Demographic/Capacity Gaps

Key gaps Steps Taken Strategies Going Forward

Dem

og

rap

hic

/Ca

pac

ity G

ap

s

Preschool capacity

Additional seats offered at High Tech

Elementary, Isabella Bird, and Ashley to

meet growing neighborhood needs

Consider increasing ECE offerings as part of

the expansion to address Buckley Annex.

Elementary seating capacity

Isabella Bird Community School opened in

August 2013 and expanded to full build for

Fall 2014

High Tech Elementary School opening in

Fall 2014

Additional elementary seats will need to be

seeded in 2016 and opened in 2017 to meet

the neighborhood growth in Stapleton.

Additional seats will be added in 2015 to

address the development at Buckley Annex.

Middle School seating capacity: Park

Hill - Stapleton

Relocated McAuliffe MS to the Smiley

campus to meet Greater Park Hill

Stapleton demand

Denver Discovery opening on the Swigert-

McAuliffe campus Fall 2014

DSST: Conservatory Green opened Fall

2014

Additional MS seats will need to be seeded in

2016 and opened in 2017 to support the

Greater Park Hill Stapleton zone to meet

enrollment growth.

High School seating capacity:

Stapleton

High School campus in North Stapleton

will be opening Fall 2015, with 1,000 seats

of capacity

Phase 2 of High School campus will be

needed in 2018 to support program build-out

Off-track offerings Existing programs are meeting regional

needs None needed at this time

29

Overall regional strategy

While recent program openings will support enrollment growth, further capacity will be needed in 2016 to meet

increased elementary and middle enrollment coming from Stapleton. Performance gaps remain north of City Park.

Page 30: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Near Northeast Regional Summary: Performance & Choice Gaps

Overall regional strategy

While recent program openings will support enrollment growth, further capacity will be needed in 2016 to meet

increased elementary and middle enrollment coming from Stapleton. Performance gaps remain north of City Park.

Key gaps Steps Taken Strategies Going Forward

Pe

rfo

rma

nce G

ap

s Elementary school performance:

(1,381 seats, or 9% are orange/red)

Several regional programs are receiving

tiered support (page 69).

Continued support for schools in the tiered

support framework (page 69).

Secondary school performance:

(2,006 seats, or 8% are orange/red)

Completed phase-out of Venture Prep MS.

Completed phase-out of Smiley MS.

Creation of Greater Park Hill – Stapleton

shared MS boundary.

Closing of Venture Prep MS and Smiley

program, with relocation of strong program

(McAuliffe) into Park Hill to handle

neighborhood demand.

Program changes to get Manual back on

track are being considered by key

community members.

Ch

oic

e G

ap

s Elementary Level

Choice-out rates among families living in North City Park remain high as families seek higher-performing programs.

Secondary Level

Relocation of McAuliffe MS to Smiley campus is significantly increasing the percentage of Park Hill families attending a school in

the enrollment zone: up to 65% in 2014 from as low as 18% prior to establishing the enrollment zone.

Manual HS continues to have large choice-out rates from neighborhood families seeking higher-performing programs. This has

resulted in waiting lists at East HS, DSST-Cole, and Bruce Randolph, while Manual has over 800 empty seats.

30

Page 31: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Capture Gaps: Overall steady trends in enrollment behavior, though seeing a

slight increase in 8th grade students leaving the district for 9th grade

31

Live and Attend Trends at

October Count

Percent of NNE Students

Leaving the District

Over the past few years, there has been little change in enrollment behavior in the NNE.

NNE has the highest percent of students who attend a school in their region (87% vs. 78% district average in 2013).

About 14% of 5th graders leave the district for 6th grade and this has remained fairly constant over the past few years. Park Hill has seen

declines going into 6th grade, but as a result of McAuliffe relocating to the Smiley Campus, the 2014 first round of Choice data shows that more

students will now be joining the district than leaving at this transition grade.

For 8th graders, there was a steady decline in students leaving the district for the past several years, but in 2013 there was an increase.

49.7

87.9

9.9

50.0

88.0

9.8

50.5

86.7

10.7

% AttendingBoundary School

% Choice withinRegion

% Choice out ofRegion

2011 2012 2013

Key Observations

14.2 13.6 13.7 13.7

12.4 13.3 13.7 14.1

12.4

5th 8th District K-11th

2011 2012 2013

Page 32: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

2018 Forecast: Driven by continued residential development in Stapleton, NNE

student population will increase by about 2,400 students

By 2018, there will be about 2,400 more students living in the NNE (10% growth from 2013).

Stapleton (NNE-D) accounts for 83% of the total growth in the region and represents the largest growth in the district (2,016 additional students by

2018), driven by roughly 300-400 additional units closing each year through 2018.

NNE-E will experience growth primarily as a result of the Buckley Annex development (364 additional students in 2018).

Other areas with high growth are the north Park Hill area (NNE-B), primarily due to a new low-income residential development near the Park Hill golf

course. Otherwise, Park Hill is showing minimal growth.

NNE-F shows more stable growth from 2013 to 2018 as the effects of new developments are leveling off (34 student increase).

32

14,488 15,464

4,659 5,483

6,136

6,755

25,283

27,702

2013 2018

ES MS HS Total

Key Observations

NNE Forecast

ES: +7%

+ 976

HS: + 10%

+ 619

MS: +18%

+ 824

Page 33: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

NNE Elementary School Performance

Gaps

1. Continue supporting schools remaining or dropping to orange or red through the Tiered Support Framework or Turnaround

(Columbine, Gilpin, Harrington, and Wyatt Academy). These four schools are located in the same geographical area.

2. Monitor schools that dropped from green to yellow (Dora Moore, Palmer and Whittier)

Additional Observations

1. 71% of seats are blue/green in 2014 versus 68% in 2013.

2. 313 more students are in an orange or red seat, or an increase of 29%

3. Polaris is the only school West of Colorado Blvd. that is blue.

4. Carson has achieved blue status for the first time in 5 years, while Bromwell improved to blue as well.

2014-15 enrollment data are projections. 33

School Name

2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

McMeen

Polaris at Ebert

Steck

Bromwell

Carson

Denver Green School

Hallett Fundamental Academy

Montclair

Odyssey

Park Hill School

Place Bridge Academy

Westerly Creek

William (Bill) Roberts

Garden Place

Lowry

Swansea

Teller

Smith

Denver Language School

School Name

2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

Dora Moore

Palmer

Whittier

Cole Arts & Science

Academy

Pioneer

Stedman

Ashley

Barrett

Columbine

Gilpin

Harrington

Wyatt Academy

Page 34: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

NNE Middle School Performance

Gaps

1. The % of students attending a red/orange school in the NNE is the same as last year.

2. Since 2012, Morey dropped from SPF green to SPF yellow to SPF orange. School leadership has been replaced in 2014.

3. Denver Public Montessori opened SPF red, particularly due to low growth scores

Additional Observations

1. 65% of seats are blue/green in 2014 versus 67% in 2013.

2. To address regional performance concerns, Smiley MS closed in 2013-14 and Venture Prep MS is closing after 2014-15.

3. There was a slight increase in of students in blue and green seats; overall there continues to be a decline in green seats

and the orange and red seat are staying the same.

2014-15 enrollment data are projections. 34

School Name 2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

DSST: Stapleton MS

McAuliffe International School

Denver School of the Arts MS

DSST: Cole MS

Hill Campus of Arts and Sciences

Bruce Randolph School MS

Morey Middle School

Smiley Middle School

Venture Prep MS

Denver Public Montessori MS

Page 35: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

NNE High school performance

Gaps

1. 7% of students in the NNE are attending a red/orange school at the HS level in the NNE in 2014 versus 15% in 2013.

2. Manual HS continues to be SPF red. Manual HS enrollment in 2014-15 has declined from 418 in 2013-14 to 279 this year

as families increasingly seek higher-performing options.

Additional Observations

1. 79% of seats are blue/green in 2014 versus 81% in 2013.

2. 7% of seats are red/orange in 2014 versus 15% in 2013.

2014-15 enrollment data are projections. 35

School Name

2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

DSST: Stapleton

East High School

Denver School of the Arts

DSST: Cole

George Washington High School

Venture Prep

Bruce Randolph School

Manual High School

Page 36: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

NNE Alternative High School Performance

Gaps

1. Performance at DC-21 and P.R.E.P. continues to be a concern.

Additional Observations

1. SPF performance increased at both Denver Online and Emily Griffith Technical College.

2. Of the 884 seats in the region 555 seats, or 63% are blue or green.

3. There are 305 seats, or 35% are orange or red.

2014-15 enrollment data are projections. 36

School Name 2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

Denver Online High School

Emily Griffith Technical College

DC21 at Wyman

P.R.E.P.

Page 37: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Northwest SPF: Elementary schools

37

Page 38: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Northwest SPF: Secondary schools

38

Page 39: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Northwest SPF: Alternative Education Secondary schools

39

Page 40: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Northwest Regional Summary: Demographic/Capacity Gaps

Overall regional strategy

High levels of residential development will continue to gentrify the region, which may continue the trends of lowering the

overall student-age population. The Northwest is the only region without a blue school at any elementary level.

Key gaps Steps Taken Strategies Going Forward

Dem

og

rap

hic

/Ca

pa

cit

y G

ap

s

Preschool capacity

Existing programs are meeting regional

capacity needs.

None needed

Elementary seating capacity: Existing programs are meeting regional

capacity needs.

Continue monitoring residential

development projects at South Sloan’s

Lake and Sun Valley to identify potential

capacity expansion needs.

Middle School seating capacity: Existing programs are meeting regional

capacity needs. None needed

High School capture gap: Existing programs are meeting regional

capacity needs. None needed

Off-track offerings Existing programs are meeting regional

capacity needs. None needed

40

Page 41: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Northwest Regional Summary: Performance & Choice Gaps

Overall regional strategy

High levels of residential development will continue to gentrify the region, which may continue the trends of lowering the

overall student-age population. The Northwest is the only region without a blue school at any elementary level.

Key gaps Steps Taken Strategies Going Forward

Pe

rfo

rma

nce G

ap

s

Elementary school performance: (2,395

seats, or 25% are orange/red)

Several regional programs remain in the

tiered support framework (page 69).

Continued tiered supports for regional

programs (page 69).

Secondary school performance:(1,285

seats, or 8% are orange/red)

Several regional programs remain in the

tiered support framework (page 69).

Continued tiered supports for regional

programs (page 69).

Ch

oic

e G

ap

s Elementary Schools:

94% of families are enrolling at one of their top 5 choices

Several low performing programs are creating strong demand for higher performing regional options

Secondary Schools:

Due to continued improvements at Skinner MS, it is now the most attractive program option for boundary families, as evidenced by

frequency of families rating it their first choice.

Roughly 50% more families are listing STRIVE Prep-Lake as their first choice compared to Lake International.

41

Page 42: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Capture Gaps: NW students are choosing NW schools at much lower rates than

other regions of the city

Students living in the NW are choicing out of schools in their region more than any other region in the district, and the

trends are not showing improvement.

Though there are positive trends among 8th graders choosing to stay with DPS for 9th grade, there has been little

movement for 5th graders.

42

Percent of Students Attending

School outside Region

Percent of NW Students

Leaving the District

23.9

14.9

24.3

14.3

24.5

14.6

NW District

2011 2012 2013

Key Observations

11.5

21.8

13.7

10.6

17.7

13.3

10.7

16.1

12.4

5th 8th District K-11th

2011 2012 2013

Page 43: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

2018 Forecast: Several new developments in NW Denver will impact student

enrollment

43

10,098 10,497

3,626 3,874

3,894 4,178

17,618 18,549

2013 2018

ES MS HS Total

Gentrification that started in the Highlands continues to move both

north and south of that neighborhood. This tends to drive low-income

families out of the area and higher-income families into newly-

developed, higher-cost units. This trend often leads to lower student

yields in the area, and ultimately, lower student enrollment (as seen

in NW-E, NW-F, and NW-B).

ES: +4%

+399

HS: +7%

+284

MS: +7%

+248

In NW-C, the residential development on the former St. Anthony’s hospital site, along with the Sun Valley mixed-income

developments will drive increases in enrollment. However, as the Highlands gentrification continues to move south, this may off-

set enrollment increases beyond 2018 (see subsequent slides for additional information).

In NW-D, there were large increases in student population over the years, will still show some growth by 2018, but start to level off.

NW Forecast

Key Observations

Page 44: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

NW Elementary School Performance

Gaps

1. 25% of students in the NW are attending a red/orange school at the ES level in the NW in 2014 versus 30% in 2013.

Additional Observations

1. 51% of seats are blue/green in 2014 versus 49% in 2013.

2. No ES in the NW has been rated blue in the past three years.

2014-15 enrollment data are projections. 44

School Name

2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

Academia Sandoval

Barnum Elementary

Bryant Webster

Edison Elementary

Knapp Elementary

Newlon Elementary

Brown International

Columbian Elementary

Colfax Elementary

DCIS at Fairmont

School Name

2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

Valdez Elementary

Eagleton Elementary

Cowell Elementary

Cesar Chavez Academy

Munroe Elementary

Beach Court Elementary

Trevista ECE-8

Cheltenham Elementary

Fairview Elementary

Centennial ECE-8

Escuela Tlatelolco

Greenlee Elementary

Page 45: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

NW Middle School Performance

Gaps

1. 27% of students in the NW are attending a red/orange school at the MS level in the NW in 2014 versus 30% in 2013.

2. Continue supporting Lake through the Turnaround network and monitor West Generations Academy.

Additional Observations

1. As a result of Strive-Lake and West Leadership declining in rating, only 47% of seats are blue/green in 2014

versus 65% in 2013.

2013-14 enrollment data are projections. 45

School Name 2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

STRIVE Prep - Highland

DCIS MS

Girls Athletic Leadership School

Skinner Middle School

STRIVE Prep - Lake

West Leadership Academy MS

Trevista ECE-8 at Horace Mann

Lake International School

West Generations Academy MS

Page 46: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

NW High School Performance

Gaps

1. 16% of students in the NW are attending a red/orange school at the HS level in the NW in 2014 versus 22% in 2013.

Additional Observations

1. 46% of seats are blue/green in 2014 versus 42% in 2013.

2. West HS will close at the end of 2014-15

3. STRIVE HS at North opened in 2013-14

2014-15 enrollment data are projections. 46

School Name

2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

CEC Middle College of Denver

DCIS

West Leadership Academy

North High School

Escuela Tlatelolco School

West High School

West Generations Academy

Page 47: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

NW High Alternative School Performance:

Gaps

1. There are no green or blue seats in the region for alternative schools.

Additional Observations

1. 55% of the seats are orange or red.

2. 50% of the schools increased their SPF rating.

2014-15 enrollment data are projections. 47

School Name 2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

Academy of Urban Learning

Florence Crittenton High School

West Career Academy

ACE Community Challenge School

Justice High School Denver

Colorado High School Charter

Contemporary Learning Academy

North High School Engagement Center

Page 48: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Southeast SPF: Elementary Schools

48

Page 49: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Southeast SPF: Secondary Schools

49

Page 50: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Southeast Regional Summary: Demographic/Capacity Gaps

Overall regional strategy

Stable regional growth is forecasted over the five-year horizon. Hampden Heights ES will address overcapacity in far SE.

Performance of programs remains strong as all schools are either SPF green or blue.

Key gaps Steps Taken Strategies Going Forward

Dem

og

rap

hic

/Ca

pac

ity G

ap

s

Preschool capacity

Due to regional elementary capacity

constraints, no program expansions have

been possible. Minimal regional

community partners prevents further

expansion.

Opening 80-100 ECE seats at the

Hampden Heights campus to address

shortage of offerings in far southeast

region.

Elementary seating capacity Opening of Hampden Heights Elementary

campus in August 2015.

Middle School seating capacity Adequate regional capacity to meet

demand needs.

High School seating capacity No actions are needed to meet regional

demand.

No actions are needed to meet regional

demand.

Off-track offerings There are currently no programs in the

region.

Consider opening an intensive pathway

center in the region due to lack of any

offerings in the region.

50

Page 51: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Southeast Regional Summary: Performance & Choice Gaps

Key gaps Steps Taken Strategies Going Forward

Pe

rfo

rma

nce G

ap

s

Elementary school performance: (0

seats below green)

Secondary school performance: (0

seats below green)

Ch

oic

e G

ap

s

Elementary Level:

Regional schools are high performing and are attractive to neighborhood families.

Secondary Level:

Merrill MS and Grant-Beacon MS are becoming increasingly attractive to neighborhood families as a result of increased

performance.

51

Overall regional strategy

Stable regional growth is forecasted over the five-year horizon. Hampden Heights ES will address overcapacity in far SE.

Performance of programs remains strong as all schools are either SPF green or blue.

Page 52: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Capture Gaps: SE enrollment trends moving in the right direction– more enrolled

in SE schools and fewer students leaving the district at transition grades

52

Enrollment in SE Schools Percent of SE Students

Leaving the District

705

777 800 859

897 889

6th 9th

2011 2012 2013

Key Observations

16.5

23.6

13.7

16.7

24.9

13.3 13.6

21.6

12.4

5th 8th District K-11th

2011 2012 2013

Enrollment in SE schools has steadily climbed over the past several years (+192 6th grade students or +27%, +112 9th

grade students or +14%).

Fewer students are leaving the district at transition grades, with about a 3 percentage point decline for 5th graders and

2 percentage point decrease for 8th graders.

– Though these are positive trends, these are also the highest rates in the district.

Students living in the SE also have the highest percentage of students attending their boundary school (63% in 2013,

compared to 50% at the district level).

Page 53: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

2018 Forecast: SE student population is expected to grow 3%, or about 350

students, by 2018

The DU area (SE-A) shows little to no growth at all education levels, as the growth in the area has leveled off and may

continue to decline (13 more students by 2018).

– As current homes are renovated into new higher-priced homes, there is likely to be a reduction in the number of school-aged children

living in this area.

The SE-B area is experiencing growth from increased capture rates at the elementary level. With DSST: Byers and

performance improvement at Merrill, there will likely also be gains at the secondary level.

In SE-C, there was large growth in elementary age students over the past few years, which is likely to continue at all

education levels by 2018 (total increase of 202 students).

53

6,091 6,217

2,015 2,161

2,127 2,198

10,233 10,576

2013 2018

ES MS HS Total

Key Observations

SE Forecast

ES: +2%

+126

HS: +3%

+71

MS: +7%

+146

Page 54: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

SE Elementary School Performance

Gaps

1. The region continues to have all high performing schools.

Additional Observations

1. 100% of seats are blue/green in 2014 versus 91% in 2013.

2014-15 enrollment data are projections.

54

School Name

2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

Cory Elementary School

Lincoln Elementary School

Slavens ECE-8 School

University Park Elementary School

Bradley International School

Asbury Elementary School

Highline Academy Charter School

Ellis Elementary School

Holm Elementary School

McKinley-Thatcher Elementary School

Samuels Elementary School

Southmoor Elementary School

Steele Elementary School

Creativity Challenge Community (C3)

Page 55: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

SE Middle School Performance

Gaps

1. The region continues to have all high performing schools.

Additional Observations

1. 100% of seats are blue/green in 2014 versus 56% in 2013 as a result of Hamilton MS improving to SPF green.

2014-15 enrollment data are projections.

55

School Name 2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

Lincoln Elementary School (6th grade)

Slavens ECE-8 School

Highline Academy Charter School

DSST: Byers

Merrill Middle School

Grant Beacon Middle School

Hamilton Middle School

Page 56: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

SE High School Performance

Gaps

1. The region is high performing.

Additional Observations

1. 100% of seats are blue/green in 2014 versus 55% in 2013.

2014-15 enrollment data are projections.

56

School Name 2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

South High School

Thomas Jefferson High School

Page 57: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Southwest SPF: Elementary Schools

57

Page 58: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Southwest SPF: Secondary Schools

58

Page 59: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Southwest SPF: Alternative Secondary Schools

59

Page 60: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Southwest Regional Summary: Demographic/Capacity Gaps

Overall regional strategy

Capacity may continue to be a concern due to regional student-age population increases that are resulting from

gentrification in northwest Denver that are forcing families to move south.

While elementary performance is inconsistently improving, district-MS performance continues to be a concern. The

consideration of enrollment zones at the MS level should lead to improved programs for students.

Key gaps Steps Taken Strategies Going Forward

De

mo

gra

ph

ic/C

ap

ac

ity G

ap

s

Preschool capacity: Construction of 14-classroom LeDoux

ECE Center.

Monitor waitlist data for far SW region

to see if community partners can offer

additional seats.

Elementary seating capacity:

Construction of LeDoux to relieve

pressure on Castro, CMS, Munroe/

Opening of STRIVE ES at Ruby Hill in

2014.

Closely monitor elementary seat

capacity.

Monitor Force/Doull neighborhood

levels to ensure boundary students

have seats.

Middle School seating capacity: Adequate capacity to serve regional

demand.

Ensure that any regional options

replacing Kepner MS will be able to

serve regional demand, roughly 350

students per grade.

High School capture gap: Adequate capacity to serve regional

demand. No further capacity needed.

Off-track offerings: Adequate capacity to serve regional

demand. No further capacity needed.

60

Page 61: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Southwest Regional Summary: Performance & Choice Gaps

Key gaps Steps Taken Strategies Going Forward

Pe

rfo

rma

nce G

ap

s

Elementary school performance: (1,891

seats, or 20% are orange/red)

Several regional programs remain in the

tiered support framework (page 69).

Continued support for schools in the tiered

support framework (page 69).

Secondary school performance:(3,048

seat, or 18% are orange/red)

Phase-out of Kepner MS and introduction

of new programs in its place for 2015-16.

Several regional programs remain in the

tiered support framework (page 69).

Significant supports needed to improve

performance at regional schools (page 69)

Ch

oic

e G

ap

s

Elementary Level: 93% of families received their top 5 choice.

Secondary Level: 93% of families received their top 5 choice.

Several regional MS programs are very popular with long waiting lists, while other options continue to have low interest.

61

Overall regional strategy

Capacity may continue to be a concern due to regional student-age population increases that are resulting from

gentrification in northwest Denver that are forcing families to move south.

While elementary performance is inconsistently improving, district-MS performance continues to be a concern. The

consideration of enrollment zones at the MS level should lead to improved programs for students.

Page 62: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Capture Gaps: Enrollment data shows stable trends over past few years

There has been little change in enrollment trends over the past few years.

SW enrollment data points closely align to district averages.

62

Live and Attend Trends at

October Count

Percent of SW Students

Leaving the District

Key Observations

51.8

83.6

13.4

50.6

83.9

13.1

49.5

85.1

13.7

% AttendingBoundary School

% Choice withinRegion

% Choice out ofRegion

2011 2012 2013

11.3

20.0

13.7

10.5

16.2

13.3

11.2

16.4

12.4

5th 8th District K-11th

2011 2012 2013

Page 63: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

2018 Forecast: SW student population predicted to grow about 3% by 2018, the

lowest growth rate in the district

There are no new residential developments in the region.

In SW-A, SW-B, and SW-C, there was large growth at the

elementary level over the past several years, but the

student population will begin to level off as we near a

“ceiling” reflecting high levels of yield and capture rate.

The student population in the southern part of the region

(SW-D) will hold steady at all education levels (increase of

61 total students by 2018). 63

9,380 9,646

3,499 3,634

3,965 4,039

16,844 17,319

2013 2018

ES MS HS Total

Key Observations

SW Forecast

ES: +3%

+266

HS: +2%

+74

MS: +4%

+135

Page 64: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

SW Elementary School Performance:

Gaps

1. 20% of students in the SW are attending a red/orange school at the ES level in the SW in 2014 versus 11% in 2013.

Additional Observations

1. As a result of improvements at College View and Johnson, 66% of seats are blue/green in 2014 versus 53% in 2013.

2014-15 enrollment data are projections. 64

School Name

2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

KIPP Sunshine Peak Academy (5th grade)

Denison Montessori School

Doull Elementary School

Force Elementary School

Godsman Elementary School

Grant Ranch ECE-8 School

Gust Elementary School

Sabin World School

Traylor Academy

Kaiser Elementary School

College View Elementary School

Johnson Elementary School

Kunsmiller Creative Arts Academy

Mathematics & Science Leadership

Castro Elementary School

Goldrick Elementary School

Schmitt Elementary School

Charles M. Schenck (CMS)

Valverde Elementary School

Page 65: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

SW Middle School Performance:

Gaps

1. 37% of students in the SW are attending a red/orange school at the MS level in the SW in 2014 versus 44% in 2013.

Additional Observations

1. 50% of seats are blue/green in 2014 versus 44% in 2013

2014-15 enrollment data are projections. 65

School Name 2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

DSST: College View MS

STRIVE Prep - Westwood

STRIVE Prep - Federal

Kunsmiller Creative Arts MS

Henry World School

Kepner Middle School

Page 66: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

SW High School Performance:

Gaps

1. 43% of students in the SW are attending a red/orange school at the HS level in the SW in 2014 versus 8% in 2013

Additional Observations

1. 9% of seats are blue/green in 2014 versus 17% in 2013.

2014-15 enrollment data are projections.

66

School Name

2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

KIPP Denver Collegiate High School

STRIVE Prep - SMART

John F. Kennedy High School

Kunsmiller Creative Arts Academy

Abraham Lincoln High School

Southwest Early College

Page 67: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

SW Alternative High School Performance:

Gaps

1. No high performing seats available

Additional Observations

1. No performance increase in the last three years.

2014-15 enrollment data are projections.

67

School Name

2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

Respect Academy

Summit Academy

Excel Academy

Page 68: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

APPENDIX

68

Page 69: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Tiered Schools Framework (TSF) with identified supports for 2015-16

69

The list of TSF schools and the interventions will be presented to the Board of

Education in November.

After presentation to the board, this document will be updated.

Page 70: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Timeline for Strategic School Decisions 2015-16 school year

70

Analysis and

Decision

Making

October September November December

February/March January April/May June

Analysis and

Decision

Making

Communications

Communications

Finalize

recommendations on

current year new school

and charter renewals

DPS Board vote on new

school & Charter

Renewals Public

comment

DPS Board vote on

turnaround/Redesign

recommendations Public

comment

Staff

recommendations on

turnarounds/redesign

Tiered Support Framework

(TSF); identify schools for

supports and interventions

including Turnaround and

Redesign

SRA

published

IS /OSRI conversations

with school leaders in

schools that are at risk for

future turnaround or

closure based on SPF

New schools and

facilities approved

Enrollment,

projections and

budget available

Call for Quality

Schools

Preliminary ID of likely

turnaround schools based

on finance, enrollment,

interim data

Page 71: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

Tiered Schools Framework (TSF) 2.0

71

#1 Academic and Non-Academic Power Flags

Is the school meeting academic and key community* expectations?

Academic Power Flags: red or orange on school performance

framework (SPF), red on growth, persistently low performing, drop of

more than 10% on SPF

Non-Academic Power Flags: attendance, suspensions, choice out,

demand, parent satisfaction, student satisfaction, Principal

effectiveness rating, voluntary teacher turnover

Intensive school

supports,

interventions or

enhanced

monitoring

Continuous quality

improvement

Good to great support,

replication of best practices**

Yes

School on track

to improve

Implement

redesign,

turnaround,

restart or non-

renewal/ closure

Watch list and

strategic supports

No

Yes

#2 School Quality Indicators

Are the necessary conditions for school success present?

Interim and School Quality Data: school quality review, Instructional

Superintendent (IS) assessment of school, LEAP and LEAD data,

student perception survey

#3 Body of Evidence

Does the body of evidence suggest redesign, turnaround, restart or non-

renewal/closure?

Academic and School Quality Indicators & Additional Data: history and effectiveness of

school and interventions/support, availability of higher performing options, community

engagement

No No

*Parent, student and teacher community expectations

**Schools meeting SPF expectations will still be monitored for leading indicators such as significant

changes in demand, re-enrollment or declines in SPF growth or status

Page 72: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

FNE School Data

72

School Name % FRL % Minority % ELL % SPED 2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

DSST: Green Valley Ranch 73% 80% 16% 4%

STRIVE Prep - GVR 81% 87% 34% 9%

DSST: Green Valley Ranch MS 77% 78% 27% 7%

KIPP Montbello College Prep 92% 92% 37% 13%

Green Valley Elementary 79% 84% 34% 13%

STRIVE Prep - Montbello 93% 93% 42% 14%

Lena Archuleta Elementary School 90% 89% 62% 10%

Marrama Elementary School 86% 82% 39% 12%

McGlone 97% 96% 57% 8%

Omar D. Blair Charter School 61% 74% 27% 7%

Farrell B. Howell ECE-8 School 94% 96% 57% 11%

High-Tech Early College 84% 91% 31% 10%

Marie L. Greenwood Academy 95% 96% 68% 8%

Florida Pitt-Waller ECE-8 School 74% 82% 29% 13%

Martin Luther King Jr. Early College 89% 91% 33% 14%

Martin Luther King Jr. Early College MS 89% 91% 33% 14%

DCIS at Montbello 89% 95% 43% 8%

DCIS at Montbello MS 89% 95% 43% 8%

Vista Academy 84% 90% 30% 14%

Vista Academy MS 84% 90% 30% 14%

Maxwell Elementary School 95% 94% 51% 10%

Academy 360 79% 84% 24% 9%

Monarch Montessori 65% 70% 37% 5%

Collegiate Preparatory Academy 84% 91% 29% 15%

DCIS at Ford 96% 97% 57% 8%

Noel Community Arts School 88% 92% 37% 19%

Noel Community Arts School MS 88% 92% 37% 19%

Sims Fayola International Academy Denver 78% 93% 22% 20%

Sims Fayola International Academy Denver MS 78% 93% 22% 20%

Amesse Elementary School 96% 92% 48% 7%

SOAR at Green Valley Ranch 73% 76% 41% 6%

SOAR Oakland 95% 92% 44% 12%

P.U.S.H.Academy 85% 95% 23% 4%

Montbello High School 80% 89% 27% 16%

Page 73: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

NNE School Data

73

School Name % FRL

%

Minority % ELL % SPED 2013

SPF

2014

SPF

DSST: Stapleton 48% 60% 10% 4%

McMeen Elementary School 86% 68% 42% 8%

Polaris at Ebert Elementary School 3% 9% 3% 4%

Steck Elementary School 11% 15% 9% 4%

DSST: Stapleton MS 52% 55% 15% 4%

East High School 36% 45% 6% 8%

McAuliffe International School 21% 26% 4% 6%

Bromwell Elementary School 8% 13% 7% 8%

Carson Elementary School 16% 17% 8% 9%

Denver School of the Arts 14% 22% 3% 2%

Denver School of the Arts MS 14% 22% 3% 2%

DSST: Cole 76% 82% 28% 10%

DSST: Cole MS 76% 82% 28% 10%

Denver Green School 59% 50% 24% 14%

Hallett Fundamental Academy 91% 92% 13% 13%

Hill Campus of Arts and Sciences 59% 57% 19% 15%

Montclair Elementary School 67% 59% 28% 8%

Odyssey Charter Elementary School 35% 29% 5% 4%

Park Hill School 24% 28% 6% 14%

Place Bridge Academy 96% 62% 67% 9%

Westerly Creek Elementary School 16% 22% 6% 8%

William (Bill) Roberts K-8 School 16% 22% 4% 8%

Garden Place Elementary School 95% 95% 52% 12%

George Washington High School 56% 63% 9% 10%

Lowry Elementary School 36% 37% 13% 8%

Swansea Elementary School 98% 97% 64% 11%

Teller Elementary School 36% 32% 9% 13%

Smith Renaissance School 98% 93% 35% 12%

Denver Language School 12% 27% 17% 1%

Denver Online High School 33% 44% 2% 5%

Emily Griffith Technical College 47% 79% 15% 7%

Page 74: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

NNE School Data (Cont.)

74

School Name % FRL

%

Minority % ELL % SPED 2013

SPF

2014

SPF

Dora Moore ECE-8 School 75% 59% 16% 10%

Palmer Elementary School 49% 54% 12% 15%

Whittier K-8 School 93% 86% 17% 13%

Cole Arts and Science Academy 93% 91% 45% 15%

Pioneer Charter School 96% 99% 63% 8%

Venture Prep 86% 87% 24% 15%

Stedman Elementary School 86% 88% 20% 12%

Ashley Elementary School 95% 88% 49% 9%

Barrett Elementary School 93% 96% 34% 10%

Bruce Randolph School 98% 96% 44% 17%

Bruce Randolph School MS 98% 96% 44% 17%

Morey Middle School 45% 44% 7% 10%

Columbine Elementary School 91% 90% 23% 15%

Gilpin Montessori Public School 79% 70% 16% 15%

Harrington Elementary School 96% 94% 43% 10%

Manual High School 75% 93% 22% 18%

Smiley Middle School 85% 88% 15% 29%

Wyatt Edison Charter Elementary School 96% 97% 48% 9%

DC21 at Wyman 85% 91% 19% 24%

DC21 at Wyman MS 85% 91% 19% 24%

P.R.E.P. 94% 94% 11% 20%

P.R.E.P. MS 94% 94% 11% 20%

Venture Prep MS 94% 98% 38% 10%

Denver Public Montessori MS 48% 67% 10% 17%

Page 75: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

NW School Data

75

School Name

% FRL % Minority % ELL % SPED 2013

SPF

2014

SPF

STRIVE Prep - Highland 90% 96% 47% 11%

Academia Ana Maria Sandoval 37% 59% 31% 8%

Barnum Elementary School 95% 94% 61% 12%

Bryant Webster Dual Language ECE-8 School 88% 96% 56% 8%

CEC Middle College of Denver 87% 91% 13% 4%

DCIS 52% 57% 11% 5%

DCIS MS 52% 57% 11% 5%

Edison Elementary School 39% 42% 6% 8%

Girls Athletic Leadership School 52% 49% 18% 13%

Knapp Elementary School 97% 95% 64% 11%

Newlon Elementary School 93% 95% 59% 9%

Skinner Middle School 75% 74% 16% 16%

Brown International Academy 48% 46% 12% 10%

Columbian Elementary School 91% 94% 32% 20%

Colfax Elementary School 93% 91% 36% 12%

DCIS at Fairmont 81% 82% 40% 17%

STRIVE Prep - Lake 94% 97% 47% 16%

Valdez Elementary School 57% 67% 40% 13%

West Leadership Academy 98% 94% 52% 19%

West Leadership Academy MS 98% 94% 52% 19%

Eagleton Elementary School 94% 95% 47% 15%

Cowell Elementary School 97% 93% 62% 10%

North High School 85% 89% 21% 27%

Academy of Urban Learning 85% 91% 8% 28%

Cesar Chavez Academy Denver 88% 95% 39% 8%

Munroe Elementary School 99% 96% 74% 11%

Florence Crittenton High School 94% 89% 31% 15%

West Career Academy 77% 93% 17% 16%

ACE Community Challenge School 95% 96% 33% 10%

Page 76: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

NW School Data (Cont.)

76

School Name

% FRL %

Minority % ELL % SPED

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

Beach Court Elementary School 89% 94% 42% 12%

Justice High School Denver 85% 96% 21% 12%

Trevista ECE-8 at Horace Mann 96% 95% 42% 12%

Colorado High School Charter 82% 92% 17% 20%

Cheltenham Elementary School 99% 91% 36% 12%

Fairview Elementary School 98% 84% 34% 21%

Lake International School 97% 92% 41% 16%

Centennial ECE-8 School 74% 76% 15% 14%

Contemporary Learning Academy High School 85% 92% 18% 15%

Escuela Tlatelolco School 91% 98% 55% 5%

Greenlee Elementary School 95% 91% 31% 12%

North High School Engagement Center 92% 95% 20% 11%

West High School 94% 97% 30% 20%

West Generations Academy 97% 91% 38% 14%

West Generations Academy MS 97% 91% 38% 14%

Page 77: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

SE School Data

77

School Name

% FRL %

Minority % ELL % SPED 2013

SPF

2014

SPF

Cory Elementary School 11% 12% 8% 5%

Lincoln Elementary School 27% 28% 8% 6%

Slavens ECE-8 School 8% 9% 4% 8%

University Park Elementary School 31% 21% 12% 9%

Bradley International School 48% 38% 14% 14%

Asbury Elementary School 42% 33% 13% 13%

Highline Academy Charter School 37% 44% 25% 6%

Ellis Elementary School 93% 65% 57% 12%

Holm Elementary School 85% 72% 48% 10%

McKinley-Thatcher Elementary School 57% 60% 18% 19%

Merrill Middle School 74% 55% 40% 14%

Samuels Elementary School 80% 70% 48% 7%

Southmoor Elementary School 30% 29% 14% 6%

Steele Elementary School 13% 10% 3% 7%

Grant Beacon Middle School 89% 82% 37% 15%

South High School 73% 56% 32% 9%

Hamilton Middle School 55% 53% 18% 9%

Thomas Jefferson High School 54% 55% 10% 16%

Creativity Challenge Community (C3) 15% 9% 5% 7%

Page 78: Strategic Regional Analysis · The Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) is a key planning document that supports the Denver Plan 2020 goal of having ... Alignment to the Denver Plan

SW School Data

78

School Name % FRL % Minority % ELL % SPED 2012

SPF

2013

SPF

2014

SPF

KIPP Sunshine Peak Academy 99% 98% 61% 8%

DSST: College View MS 87% 86% 38% 11%

STRIVE Prep - Westwood 95% 97% 51% 13%

STRIVE Prep - Federal 96% 99% 55% 10%

Denison Montessori School 61% 69% 24% 11%

Doull Elementary School 92% 91% 53% 15%

Force Elementary School 95% 93% 54% 12%

Godsman Elementary School 96% 94% 59% 9%

Grant Ranch ECE-8 School 60% 51% 17% 11%

Gust Elementary School 93% 88% 42% 10%

KIPP Denver Collegiate High School 92% 95% 36% 9%

Sabin World School 78% 75% 28% 12%

Traylor Academy 76% 75% 26% 10%

Kaiser Elementary School 78% 68% 15% 19%

College View Elementary School 95% 86% 55% 9%

Johnson Elementary School 97% 91% 60% 8%

STRIVE Prep - SMART 90% 97% 29% 8%

John F. Kennedy High School 73% 75% 14% 14%

Kunsmiller Creative Arts Academy 83% 81% 32% 9%

Kunsmiller Creative Arts Academy ES 83% 81% 32% 9%

Kunsmiller Creative Arts MS 83% 81% 32% 9%

Mathematics & Science Leadership Academy 97% 97% 83% 11%

Castro Elementary School 99% 94% 73% 11%

Abraham Lincoln High School 97% 95% 41% 11%

Goldrick Elementary School 95% 92% 66% 10%

Henry World School 87% 80% 26% 15%

Southwest Early College 74% 95% 28% 5%

Schmitt Elementary School 93% 87% 55% 9%

Charles M. Schenck (CMS) Community School 98% 94% 72% 16%

Valverde Elementary School 99% 96% 57% 12%

RESPECT Academy 86% 95% 36% 12%

Kepner Middle School 99% 95% 58% 17%

Summit Academy 82% 91% 27% 8%

Excel Academy 80% 89% 27% 16%