stock smart weekly (may 23, 2014)

8/10/2019 Stock Smart Weekly (May 23, 2014)

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AKD Researc [email protected] 111 253 111

Weekly Review

Following SBPs status quo in MPS the KSE100 Index remained subdued and concluded the week at 28,756 points (down by 0.44%WoW). Though average daily volumes grew by 12.6%WoW to 149.6mn shares, average traded value for the week came off by 3%WoW to US$73.6mn. We cite lack of posi ve triggers as prime culprit behind low investor par cipa on as depicted by declining average traded value for the week. Similarly, foreigners also remained at bay during the week as net in ows of just US$6.6mn were realized against US$20.6mn received in the previous week. During the week, the Finance Minister gave an insight on the upcoming budget, which will have total outlay of PkR3.86tn (US$39.4bn), tax collec on target of PkR2.80tn (US$28.5bn), scal de cit at 4.4% of GDP and PSDP expenditure at PkR525bn (US$5.4bn). Key news ow during the week included: 1) 9MFY14 LSM pos ng growth of 4.34%YoY against 3.8%YoY in the same period last year, 2) Govt receiving US$964mn (about 80% of total 3G/4G auc on) from mobile telecom operators, 3) Fx reserves increasing to US$13.1bn (import cover of 3.8 months), 4) GoP borrow ing over PkR245bn through PIB auc on against the target of PkR100bn and 5) Pakistan military going on the off ensive against TTP and staging airstrikes. Major gainers during the week under review included: AGTL (+12.0%WoW), INDU (+11.2%WoW), HCAR (+8.4%WoW) and KEL (+6.3%WoW) while EFOODS (6.3%WoW), NCL (5.8%WoW) and NML (4.9%WoW) remained laggards. The top ve volume leaders during the week included KEL (136.11mn shares), LPCL (71.81mn shares), HASCOL (27.14mn shares), BYCO (25.19mn shares) and BOP (24.33mn shares).

St ock Sma r t AKD Equity Research / Pakistan

Pakistan Weekly Update

Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investorsshould consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Important disclosures

Copyright2014 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intendedfor distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would becontrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement withinsuch jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitationor offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKDSecurities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

www.akdsecurities.net

AKD SECURITIESMember: Karachi Stock Exchange

Find AKD research on Bloomberg(AKDS), firstcall.com

and Reuters Knowledge

Any breakthrough in negotiations with the TTP will bode well for the market which will further bolster the case for re rating going forward. However, as FY15 budget draws closer we believe market will continue to remain lackluster. Furthermore, with coming week being the rollover week and open posi tion worth PkR5.03bn (as of May 2214) in futures counter, we see market coming under slight strain and advise investors to adopt cautious approach going into the final week of May14.

Outlook

23 May 2014

Top-5 Volum e Leaders

Sym bol Volum e (m n)

KEL : 136.11

LPCL : 73.81

HASCOL : 27.14

BYCO : 25.19

BOP : 24.33

Indices KSE-100 KSE-30This week 28,756.00 19,688.35Last week 28,883.33 19,882.75Change -0.44% -0.98%

Indices KMI-30 AllshareThis week 45,598.75 21,324.42Last week 45,920.10 21,548.40

Change -0.70% -1.04%

Mkt Cap. PkRbn US$bnThis week 6,839.92 69.20 Last week 6,912.57 70.16 Change -1.05% -1.37%

Avg. Daily Turnover (' mn s har es)This week 149.62 Last week 132.93 Change 12.55%

18,000

19,500

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24,000

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27,000

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30,000

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(Index)(mn)

Volume (LHS) KSE-100 Index

Index & Volume Chart

Source: KSE & AKD Research

Universe Gainers & Losers

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%0.0%

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4.0%

6.0%

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A G T L

I N D U

H C A R

K E L

A K B L

E F E R T

F A T I M A

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E F O O D S

28,951 28,843

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28,742 28,756

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Ready Volume (LHS) KSE100 Index (RHS)


2/10

AKD Securities Limited23 May 2014

StockSmartPakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

2

May 09, 2014

May 08, 2014

May 07, 2014

Pakistan Tex les: Higher value add plays preferred, (AKD Daily, May 23, 2014)

According to the recent PBS data, tex le exports for Apr14 came off by 15% on a se quen al basis to clock in at US$1,054mn. As a result, 10MFY14 tex le exports came in at US$11.44bn vs. tex le exports of US$10.74bn during the same period last year, transla ng into 6.5%YoY growth. In this regard, outperforming tex le segments during the year so far have been Co on Cloth, Knitwear, Bedware and Readymade Garments. While the recent sharp apprecia on of PkR vs. the US$ has hurt pro tability of the tex

le sector (as revenues came off but costs remained xed), we believe share prices already re ect a stronger PkR. Within this backdrop, we do not see the PkR strengthen ing further over the course of 1HFY15 which should prove to be incrementally posi ve as raw material inventories adjust to track the new PkR/US$ parity. We con nue to favor tex le plays without or rela vely low concentra on in the yarn segment par cu larly NML (target price: PkR137.5/share).

BAFL: Uncertainty caps upside, (AKD Daily, May 22, 2014)

Following BAFLs con call yesterday, we tweak our EPS es mates by 3% on average but leave our target price unchanged at PkR32/share. While 1QCY14 results were broadly inline with expecta ons and BAFL has also shi ed investments towards PIBs, stock price performance has remained subdued with limited gains of 1.7%CYTD. We a ribute this weak price performance to 1) slowdown in the Islamic banking business and 2) rela vely li le capital cushion which has necessitated an approach to IFC for a possible equity stake. Although we take capital for the sake of funding BS growth as a long term posi ve, a poten al rights issue going forward may suppress immediate term sen ment in the stock. That said, BAFL trades at a CY15F P/B of 1.0x and P/E of 6.1x where we believe a 39% discount to private sector peers more than compensates for afore men oned risks. Our TP of PkR32/share off ers 16% upside where we would recom mend taking posi ons on dips.

HBL: Well placed to play economic rebound, (AKD Daily, May 21, 2014)

HBL has gained 22%CYTD to trade at a CY15F P/B of 1.58x, P/E of 9.4x and D/Y of 5.4%. We believe this valua on set is rela vely un stretched where a more palatable oper a ng environment for banks (within the backdrop of a rebounding economy) can po ten ally lead HBL to post further gains. A er a sh earnings across CY11CY13, we believe HBL is in posi on to post 15%YoY growth in CY14F with impetus provided from the shi into PIBs from Tbills. This should lay the pla orm for double digit growth across the medium term, with prospects for posi ve earnings surprises if credit costs

remain in control (NPL stock reduced by 19%YoY in 1QCY14) and focus remains on non funded income. Our revised target price of PkR200/share (rolled over to CY15F) for off ers a 1yr total return of 13.5% while there is room for further upside over the medi um term should the GoP divest part of its 41.5% stake in the bank, thereby resul ng in increased liquidity in the stock.

PSMC: Wagon Revving up!, (AKD Daily, May 20, 2014)

Following the launch of the new Wagon R (1000cc hatchback) along with swi PkR ap precia on and subsequent incorpora on of higher GMs, we raise our EPS es mates for PSMC by 21% on average. Together with rollover onto Jun15, this results in a revised target price of PkR230/share for PSMC which off ers upside of 14% from current levels. Our Accumulate stance is based on a projected 5yr NPAT CAGR of 11%, driven by sus

tained strong margins (7%+) and an improved outlook for sales despite regulatory risks. In this regard, we have reduced our volumetric assump ons for local lower segment vehicles by 5% on average vs. base case in view of the likely reduced tari ff s on import

28,700

28,720

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28,760

28,780

28,800

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28,860

9 : 0 7

9 : 5 1

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28,700

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28,720

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May 06, 2014

28,780

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May 05, 2014

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28,860

28,920

9 : 3 0

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1 4 : 3 8

1 5 : 3 0


3/10



This Weeks Daily Reports

3

ed vehicles of lower segment (below 700cc). That said, we believe such risks are al

ready priced in. PSMC trades at a CY14F P/E of 6.8x where we have an Accumulate stance on the scrip.

SBP adopts wait and see approach, (AKD Daily, May 19, 2014)

Despite some expecta ons of a rate cut in the May'14 MPS, the SBP has taken the cau ous approach for now in keeping the DR unchanged at 10%. In this regard, the central

bank has cited vola le in a on (9.2%YoY in Apr'14) as a key risk. At the same me, while the economy appears to be on an up ck, the SBP wishes to see this trend take root. This is con ngent upon 1) mely materializa on of further foreign in ows from mul lateral and bilateral donors (currently fx reserves: US$12bn; import cover: 3.6 months), 2) reduc on in scal borrowing and 3) stability in the exchange rate (PKR has appreciated by 6.8%CYTD vs. the US$) and its impact on trade numbers. Provided this is

achieved and in a on remains in check, we believe the SBP may have room to cut the DR by at least 50bps in the next MPS par cularly as in a on expecta ons remain low, aggregate demand is moderate and FY15 CPI is expected to average ~8%YoY. While the market could remain choppy un l Budget announcement, we remain con dent that the rate hike cycle is over. Within this backdrop, we retain faith with our cylicals theme were our preferred plays include UBL, PTC, ENGRO, LUCK and OGDC.


4/10



4

Commodities

International Major Currencies

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Major World Indices Performance

Source: Bloomberg

TRJ-CRB Index

Source: Bloomberg

PkR/US$ Trend

Source: Bloomberg

Regional Valuatio ns (2014)

Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe

270

275

280

285

290

295

300

305

310

315

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A u g - 1 3

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97.0

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109.0

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SPOT Units 23 May 14 16 May 14 WoW CYTDTRJCRB Points 308.16 305.92 0.73% 9.99%

Nymex (WTI) US$/bbl. 104.03 102.02 1.97% 5.70%

ICE Brent US$/bbl. 111.86 110.27 1.44% 0.94%N. Gas Henry Hub US$/Mmbtu 4.49 4.46 0.67% 3.36%

Cotton USd/Pound 92.35 92.55 0.22% 2.95%

Gold US$/Tr.Oz 1291.55 1293.46 0.15% 7.12%

Sliver US$/Tr.Oz 19.398 19.371 0.14% 0.36%

Copper US$/MT 6959 6923.5 0.51% 5.65%Platinum US$/Oz 1478.25 1466.13 0.83% 7.94%

Coal US$/MT 73.9 73.9 0.00% 12.65%

SPOT 23 May 14 16 May 14 Chg +/ WoW CYTD

Dollar Index 80.382 80.043 0.339 0.42% 0.43%

USD/PkR 98.858 98.537 0.320 0.32% 6.14%

USD/JPY 101.920 101.500 0.420 0.41% 3.22%

EUR/USD 1.363 1.369 0.006 0.46% 0.81%

GBP/USD 1.684 1.681 0.003 0.18% 1.72%

AUD/USD 0.922 0.936 0.014 1.49% 3.41%

NZD/USD 0.854 0.863 0.009 0.99% 3.99%

CHF/USD 0.896 0.893 0.003 0.34% 0.31%

CAD/USD 1.090 1.086 0.004 0.37% 2.62%

USD/KRW 1,025 1,024 0.590 0.06% 2.39%

CNY/USD 6.236 6.233 0.003 0.04% 3.00%

Country Bloomberg Code 23 May 14 16 May 14 WoW CYTD

Pakistan KSE100 Index 28,756 28,883 0.44% 13.83%

Srilanka CSEALL Index 6,280

6,315

0.55% 6.22%Thailand SET Index 1,397 1,405 0.60% 7.56%

Jakarta JCI Index 4,973 5,032 1.16% 16.35%Malaysia FBMKLCI Index 1,869 1,883 0.75% 0.12%Philippines PCOMP Index 6,811 6,818 0.09% 15.65%Vietnam VNINDEX Index 541 529 2.27% 7.30%Hong Kong HSI Index 22,966 22,713 1.11% 1.46%Singapore FSSTI Index 3,278 3,263 0.47% 3.49%Brazil IBX Index 21,780 22,236 2.05% 2.28%Russia RTSSTD Index 9,671 9,393 2.96% 4.97%India SENSEX Index 24,693 24,122 2.37% 16.64%China SHCOMP Index 2,035 2,027 0.40% 3.85%S&P SPX Index 1,892 1,878 0.78% 2.39%DJIA INDU Index 16,543 16,491 0.31% 0.20%NASDAQ Composite CCMP Index 4,154 4,091 1.56% 0.53%UK UKX Index 6,811 6,856 0.65% 0.92%German DAX Index 9,745 9,629 1.20% 2.01%Qatar DSM Index 13,008 13,105 0.74% 25.32%Abu Dhabi ADSMI Index 4,926 5,021 1.91% 14.81%Dubai DFMGI Index 4,864 5,181 6.12% 44.34%Kuwait KWSEIDX Index 7,347 7,404 0.77% 2.68%Oman MSM30 Index 6,744 6,735 0.14% 1.32%Saudi Arabia SASEIDX Index 9,751 9,807 0.58% 14.24%MSCI EM MXEF Index 1,041 1,032 0.90% 3.84%MSCI FM MXFM Index 660 669 1.23% 11.08%

EPS Growth PE(x)Pakistan 26% 8.85 Indonesia 15% 11.92 Malaysia 18% 13.44 Philippines 9% 15.16 Vitenam 15% 16.43 India 15% 13.54 China 13% 7.05

% ROE Divd YldPakistan 21.42 5.30 Indonesia 18.55 2.22 Malaysia 13.37 3.29 Phi li ppi ne s 1 4.6 9 2.31 Vitenam 15.70 2.94 India 16.34 1.85 China 14.23 4.01


5/10

5



Chart Bank

FIPI Flows for the week

3,824

1,435

2

(954)

2,294

(2,000)

(1,000)

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19 May 20 May 21 May 22 May 23 May

(US$'000)

Advance to Decline Ratio

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AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index

5%0%5%

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KSEAll Share Index AKD Universe

LIPI Flows for the week

Ind., 0.10

Co., (0.96)

Bank/DFI, 7.80

NBFC, 4.70

M.Funds, (11.11)

Others, 0.90

(10.00)

(8.00)

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Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential

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KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM

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KSE100MSCI EM

MSCI FM


6/10

6

AKD Securities Limited StockSmartPakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Valuat ions

Market PER Chart 2014F

Source: AKD Research

Market P/BVS Chart 2014F



23 May 2014

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23 May 14 2011A 2012A 2013A/E 2014F 2015FEPS (PkR) 4.35 4.93 5.45 6.87 7.89 EPS chg (%) 28.46 13.37 10.55 26.16 14.79 EPS chg (%) ExFinancials 31.79 16.01 18.40 28.66 15.81 Book Value per Share (PkR) 21.46 24.77 28.52 32.08 35.85 Payout (%) 54.07 54.01 51.50 46.91 47.06 ValuationsPrice to Earnings (x) 13.99 12.34 11.16 8.85 7.71 Price to Book (x) 2.83 2.45 2.13 1.89 1.69 PER (x) ExFinancials 14.95 12.89 10.89 8.46 7.31 P/BVS (x) ExFinancials 3.31 2.88 2.44 2.12 1.87 Price to CF (x) 21.12 29.79 9.04 20.14 11.62 Earnings Yield (%) 7.15 8.11 8.96 11.31 12.98 Dividend Yield (%) 3.87 4.38 4.62 5.30 6.11 EV / EBITDA (x) 8.49 7.23 6.35 5.59 4.95 ProfitabilityReturn on Equity (%) 20.25 19.89 19.10 21.42 21.99 Return on Assets (%) 3.61 3.50 3.72 4.16 4.32 Chg in Sales (%) 17.74 17.92 6.23 11.61 10.59 Gross Margin (%) 22.24 21.15 22.43 22.33 22.89 Operating Margin (%) 13.37 12.30 13.09 13.35 14.21 Net Margin (%) 10.45 10.05 10.46 11.82 12.27


7/10

7


AKD Universe Active Coverage Clusters Valuations

23 May 2014


Stocks Symbol Price TP Stance EPS

(PkR) PE(x)

PB (x)

DY (%)

(PkR) (PkR) 13A/E 14F 15F 13A/E 14F 15F 13A/E 14F 15F 13A/E 14F 15F

Automobile and Parts

Indus Motors INDU 470.2 500.1 Accumulate 42.7 44.0 53.3 11.0 10.7 8.8 2.1 1.9 1.7 5.3 5.3 5.1

Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 205.8 229.9 Accumulate 22.5 29.4 30.0 9.2 7.0 6.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.9 2.9 2.9

Construc on and Materials

DG Khan Cement DGKC 83.2 118.2 Buy 12.6 12.6 13.6 6.6 6.6 6.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 3.6 3.9 4.2

Chemicals

Engro Polymer Chemicals EPCL 14.7 16.5 Accumulate 1.1 1.1 1.7 13.8 12.8 8.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.0

ICI Pakistan Limited ICI 385.6 310.5 Reduce 7.4 22.2 32.5 51.8 17.4 11.9 3.4 2.8 2.4 1.8 2.5

Lo e Chemical Pakistan Ltd. LOTCHEM 7.0 8.5 Buy (0.3) 0.6 1.0 n.m 11.9 6.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 3.6 7.1

Engro Corpora on ENGRO 196.6 196.2 Neutral 18.7 22.9 34.8 10.5 8.6 5.7 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.0

Engro Fer lizers Limited EFERT 59.2 55.5 Reduce 4.2 5.6 9.6 14.0 10.5 6.2 3.5 2.6 2.6 0.0

Dawood Hercules Limited DAWH 76.9 71.8 Reduce 9.2 13.1 18.3 8.3 5.9 4.2 n.a n.a n.a 1.3 0.0

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 39.1 49.3 Buy 6.0 6.6 6.7 6.5 5.9 5.8 2.3 2.3 2.2 12.8 16.0 16.6

Fauji Fer lizer Company FFC 109.3 138.6 Buy 15.8 16.4 16.8 6.9 6.7 6.5 5.8 5.6 5.5 14.0 14.9 15.3

Fa ma Fer lizer FATIMA 30.2 35.1 Accumulate 4.1 5.0 5.8 7.4 6.0 5.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 8.3 6.6 6.6

Food Producers

Engro Foods Limited EFOODS 104.5 UR UR 0.3 UR UR 379.8 UR UR 7.0 UR UR UR UR

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 247.0 302.1 Buy 21.1 28.9 32.3 11.7 8.5 7.6 3.3 2.7 2.2 3.3 4.7 5.2

Pak Oil elds POL 531.0 612.6 Accumulate 45.8 59.1 66.9 11.6 9.0 7.9 3.6 3.3 2.9 8.5 8.7 9.4

Pakistan State Oil PSO 393.4 UR UR 50.8 UR UR 7.7 UR UR 1.6 UR UR 1.3 UR UR

Electricity

Hub Power Co. HUBC 57.7 72.2 Buy 8.8 7.0 11.8 6.5 8.2 4.9 2.0 2.2 2.1 13.9 15.6 14.7

KElectric Limited KEL 7.7 12.1 Buy 0.2 0.3 0.4 31.7 24.8 19.0 3.9 3.4 2.9 0.0

Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO 59.4 64.0 Accumulate 8.4 8.0 10.0 7.1 7.4 6.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 12.6 13.0 16.0

Fixed Line Telecommunica on

Pakistan Telecommunica on PTC 27.3 29.7 Accumulate 3.1 4.2 5.0 8.9 6.5 5.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 12.8 11.0 13.7 Personal Goods

Nishat Mills NML 108.3 137.5 Buy 16.6 18.7 22.1 6.5 5.8 4.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 3.7 4.4 6.2

Banks

Allied Bank Limited ABL 127.0 100.0 Sell 14.2 11.7 13.0 8.9 10.9 9.8 2.0 1.8 1.6 4.1 4.3 5.2

Bank AlFalah BAFL 27.2 32.0* Accumulate 3.5 4.0 4.5 7.8 6.8 6.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 7.4 5.5 6.4

Habib Bank Limited HBL 182.7 200.0 Accumulate 17.1 19.7 21.6 10.7 9.3 8.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 4.4 5.4 6.0

MCB Bank Limited MCB 286.1 300.0 Neutral 19.7 22.3 24.4 14.6 12.8 11.7 2.8 2.4 2.2 4.4 4.5 5.1

Na onal Bank of Pakistan NBP 58.8 65.0 Accumulate 2.5 6.8 8.4 23.7 8.7 7.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 3.4 8.5 10.2

United Bank Ltd UBL 165.3 225.0 Buy 15.8 18.8 20.9 10.5 8.8 7.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 6.0 5.4 5.7

* TP for BAFL rises to PkR33.8/share upon successful Warid stake sale #####


8/10

8



AKD Universe Coverage Clusters Performance


Stocks Sym bol Pr ice 1 Year 1 Year 23-May-14 1M 3M 6M 12M CYTD High Low

KSE-100 Index 28756.00 0.1 12.3 20.6 34.7 13.8 29458.15 20958.86

Industr ial Engineering

Al-Ghazi Tractor AGTL 241.43 20.5 -11.7 20.7 16.8 13.7 325.48 197.00Millat Tractors MTL 494.16 5.6 3.9 2.9 5.7 2.4 519.58 433.73

Au to m ob ile and Par ts

Indus Motors INDU 470.23 -5.9 26.1 42.3 46.5 41.2 499.50 303.88Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 205.79 -2.9 29.8 49.0 36.9 33.7 227.75 121.37

Constru ction and Materials

DG Khan Cement DGKC 83.24 -6.7 -2.8 9.8 8.8 -2.9 96.43 68.29Lucky Cement LUCK 346.87 -2.2 15.3 30.0 93.4 15.7 369.08 177.49

Chemicals

Engro Polymer Chemicals EPCL 14.70 -9.2 -3.9 18.6 20.1 9.6 16.78 11.89ICI Pakistan Limited ICI 385.59 1.2 45.6 119.7 129.4 52.4 395.14 159.97Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited LOTCHEM 7.02 -2.9 4.5 3.2 -15.5 -4.4 8.89 6.46Daw ood Hercules DAWH 76.87 -10.2 -9.6 41.4 27.2 37.0 94.59 46.03Engro Fertilizers Ltd. EFERT 59.15 4.0 n.a n.a n.a n.a 66.55 29.66Engro Chemical ENGRO 196.64 8.0 20.8 35.2 52.1 49.8 201.27 120.75Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA 30.21 4.8 5.5 16.6 35.4 17.5 32.33 21.29Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 39.06 -10.4 -13.5 -2.1 5.1 2.2 45.42 36.92Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC 109.27 -1.9 -5.1 3.0 0.3 5.7 119.52 101.37

Food Produ cers

Engro Foods Limited EFOODS 104.51 4.8 0.9 -7.7 -18.6 25.5 162.22 80.37

Non Life Ins ur ance

Adamjee Insurance AICL 47.38 12.3 24.1 63.7 92.5 85.0 74.12 23.57

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 247.03 -6.0 -11.4 -2.5 21.5 -4.3 287.84 199.29Pak Oilf ields POL 530.97 7.3 4.7 4.6 16.0 13.3 539.63 428.73Pakistan State Oil PSO 393.43 14.4 16.5 31.0 92.2 40.5 405.69 184.67

Electricity

Hub Pow er Co. HUBC 57.70 5.8 -6.5 -12.7 13.9 -6.7 73.42 50.13K-Electric Limited KEL 7.72 12.7 27.4 36.4 14.9 36.6 7.98 4.99Kot Addu Pow er Company KAPCO 59.43 4.4 -3.7 -9.9 13.3 -2.0 68.34 52.42

Fixed Line Telecomm unication

Pakistan Telecommunication PTC 27.34 -2.6 -12.3 3.2 38.4 1.6 31.70 17.46

Personal GoodsNisaht (Chunian) Ltd. NCL 40.96 -24.6 -30.0 -33.0 -16.9 -20.9 68.82 40.51Nishat Mills NML 108.26 -18.4 -14.0 12.9 28.2 19.2 140.79 78.64

Banks

Allied Bank Limited ABL 127.00 0.4 56.5 63.6 100.2 55.2 128.34 60.39 Askari Bank Limited AKBL 19.53 0.2 40.8 59.8 36.3 39.5 20.29 10.76Bank AlFalah BAFL 27.17 -1.8 -2.9 11.1 58.7 0.5 29.07 17.12Habib Bank Limited HBL 182.67 -0.8 25.2 24.6 92.8 20.6 192.11 92.14Habib Metropolitan Bank HMB 32.00 5.2 32.8 28.0 77.7 27.6 32.68 17.31MCB Bank Limited MCB 286.07 2.8 16.6 11.0 16.7 11.9 288.97 220.54Meezan Bank Limited MEBL 39.75 -0.8 6.3 -0.6 38.8 0.9 41.24 28.18National Bank of Pakistan NBP 58.77 2.6 4.3 7.6 36.2 1.2 63.08 40.65

United Bank Ltd UBL 165.30 -7.6 22.1 29.0 61.3 24.7 187.07 100.18

Ab s olut e Per fo rm ance (%)


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Economic Snapshot

Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research

End Month Data Units Aug -13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr -14

T-bill

3M % 9.00 9.15 9.47 9.63 9.93 9.92 9.91 9.94 9.97

6M % 9.20 9.35 9.68 9.88 10.02 9.98 9.95 9.93 9.97

12M % 9.28 9.41 9.76 9.91 10.05 9.99 9.99 9.95 9.98

PIB 10Y % 11.97 12.28 12.83 12.93 12.90 12.59 12.80 12.67 12.80

KIBOR 6M % 9.15 9.29 9.55 9.52 10.13 10.14 10.15 10.11 10.18

Discount rate % 9.00 9.50 9.50 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00

Inflation

Headline inflation % 8.55 7.40 9.10 10.90 9.18 7.90 7.90 8.50 9.20

Core inflation % 8.50 8.70 8.40 8.50 8.20 8.00 7.80 7.60 8.50

Food inflation % 10.30 7.90 9.80 13.00 9.30 7.20 7.60 9.30 9.90

External Indicators

Export (PBS) US$ (mn) 1,996 2,622 1,864 1,804 2,275 2,061 2,167 2,263 1,915

Import (PBS) US$ (mn) 3,572 3,791 3,281 3,651 3,561 4,137 3,600 3,690 4,067

Trade Deficit (PBS) US$ (mn) (1,576) (1,169) (1,417) (1,847) (1,286) (2,076) (1,433) (1,427) (2,152)

Home Remittances US$ (mn) 1,233 1,283 1,348 1,131 1,385 1,246 1,210 1,337 1,216

Current Account US$ (mn) (575) (574) (166) (572) 285 (464) 164 (156) (416)

Banking Sector

Deposits PkR (bn) 7,174 7,125 7,133 7,309 7,529 7,566 7,599 7,571 7,586 Advances PkR (bn) 3,817 3,831 3,921 4,008 4,071 4,127 4,110 4,100 4,088

Investments PkR (bn) 3,708 3,873 3,776 4,035 4,070 4,217 4,443 4,503 4,467

Weighted Avg. lending rate % 11.11 11.10 11.10 11.13 11.07 11.17 11.19 n.a n.a

Weighted Avg. deposit rate % 4.83 4.79 4.90 4.89 5.05 5.19 5.14 n.a n.a

Spread rate % 6.28 6.31 6.20 6.24 6.02 5.97 6.05 n.a n.a

Public Finance

Tax collection PkR (mn) 147,221 203,596 153,329 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

Direct taxes PkR (mn) 44,574 86,436 50,466 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

Indirect Taxes PkR (mn) 102,647 117,160 102,863 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a

Currency

Reserves (LHS) US$ (mn) 9,998 9,995 9,525 8,247 8,314 7,988 8,744 10,074 11,741

USDPkR - Interbank PkR/USD 104.51 105.24 106.89 107.64 106.93 105.49 105.12 99.97 98.30


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AKD Research Team Analyst Tel no. E-mail CoverageNaveed Vakil +92 111 253 111 (692) [email protected] Director - Research & Business DevelopmentRaza Jafri, CFA +92 111 253 111 (693) [email protected] Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks

Anum Dhedhi +92 111 253 111 (637) [email protected] Pakistan Economy Asad I. Siddiqui +92 111 253 111 (693) [email protected] E&Ps & OMCsBilal Alvi +92 111 253 111 (647) [email protected] Textiles, Cements & ChemicalQasim Anwar +92 111 253 111 (680) [email protected] Technical AnalysisHassan Quadri +92 111 253 111 (639) [email protected] Research Production / Autos

Azher Ali Quli +92 111 253 111 (646) [email protected] Research ProductionNasir Khan +92 111 253 111 (646) [email protected] Research ProductionTariq Mehmood +92 111 253 111 (643) [email protected] Library Operations

23 May 2014

stock smart weekly (may 23, 2014)

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