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Sticking to the first law of thermodynamics and the rule of three

Jean-Marc Jancovici Jean-marc.jancovici@carbone4.com Jean-marc.jancovici@theshiftproject.org jmj@manicore.com

IHP - October 2015

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According to you, what is energy?

My electricity or gas bill

Something I’m full of when I really feel great

Something to be saved! (why can be unclear)

What changes the world, or I missed something?

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Energy, stronger than euros (or dollars) By definition, energy = change :

Counting energy is therefore nothing else than counting how much the physical world has changed

Change of temperature

Change of position in a field

Change of speed

Change of chemical composition

Change of atomic composition

Creating or absorbing radiation…

Change of shape

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The laws of physics will always remain stronger than our desires

The law of conservation imposes that man can only take advantage of a source of energy that already exists in the environment (primary energy)

All primary energies are free: no one ever paid a single cent for the formation of oil, gas, waterfalls or coal. Fossil fuels are as free as renewables.

The “cost of energy” represents only salaries and rents that had to be paid to other humans in the course of extracting energy from the environment. Nature never gets paid.

The more an energy source is diffuse and non manageable, the more expensive it will be. It’s just physics.

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1 L

≈ 0,5 kWh

80 kg + 10 kg up 2000 m

0,05 kWh per day (10 kWh/year)

6 m3 earth lifted up 1 m

x 10

10 kWh 2-4 kWh

mechanical output

x 100

@ 1000 €/month: 200 €/kWh

1,5 €/L : 0,4 €/kWh

2000 €/kWh

÷ 500

÷ 5000

1 day out of 2: 100 kWh/year

Even a slave: 4-40 €/kWh ÷ 10-100

Nietzsche wanted supermen, oil did the job

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Energy consumption per capita, 1880 to 2013. Source: Jancovici, 2014, on primary data coming from Schilling et al., 1977, BP Statistical Review, 2014, UN & World Bank 2014

20.000 kWh per person and per year ≈ 200 “energy slaves” per capita

Yummy kWh, or plenty of (fossil) food for plenty of machines…

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Very moral, very efficient, but alas not renewable at all

=

200 (world average) to 600-1000

(Western average)

+

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Productive system

Capital

Work

Production

Our economy seen by classical economists

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Resources Capital

Productive system Production

Muscles = 1

Machines + Energy = 200 !

Actually, you'd better have some resource!

Work

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Energy consumption vs. GDP in constant $, 1965 to 2014. Source World Bank 2015 for the GDP, BP Statistical Review 2015 for energy

The best macroeconomic model in the world: a straight line

1965

2014

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No energy, no GDP

Annual change of the world energy consumption (green) and the world GDP (blue). Source World Bank 2015 for the GDP and BP Stat 2015 for energy

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1000 years with no growth

World GDP reconstituted from 0 to 2003. Source Maddison, 2010

1800 years with almost no growth

3% per year for eternity?

No fossil fuels: no need to promise any growth!

Beginning of fossil fuels

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CnHp

O2

CO2

Present job structure, leisure and holidays, long studies, health, retirement, globalization, information society, urban concentration and sprawling…

Crack?

Boom?

Free !!

= GDP

The fire age, perpetual growth and two questions

Ores & minerals, oceans and soils, wood, all living species… (all free also)

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Mathematics are definitely hateful

As soon as an initial stock is given once and for all (fossil fuels, ores…), mathematics allow to demonstrate that :

It is impossible to have an indefinitely rising extraction

It is even impossible to have an indefinitely constant extraction !

In such a case there is only one possibility for the annual extraction :

It is nil at -∞

It is nil at +∞

It goes through an absolute maximum in between

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Mathematics are definitely hateful

As soon as an initial stock is given once and for all (fossil fuels, ores…), mathematics allow to demonstrate that :

It is impossible to have an indefinitely rising extraction

It is even impossible to have an indefinitely constant extraction !

In such a case there is only one possibility for the annual extraction :

It is nil at -∞

It is nil at +∞

It goes through an absolute maximum in between

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The peak !

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Conventionnal Deep offshore

Extra-heavy

Refinery gains NGL CTL,

biofuels

So…

World liquid production, by primary source. Source : « Transport energy futures: long-term oil supply trends and projections », Australian Government, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government, Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional

Economics (BITRE), Canberra (Australia), 2009

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And if we don’t want a massive change?

Temperature increase in 2100 arising from cumulated emissions since 1870. IPCC, 2015

2015

Cumulated CO2 emissions since 1870 in Gt

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Back to high school or almost

Emission scenarios leading to radiative forcing scenarios. IPCC, 2015

÷ 3

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If we want to lower emissions, it is better to know where they are

Breakdown of world GHG emissions in 2014. Jancovici, on various data.

Energy use: no more coal!

Eating (meat dominates)

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Fancy a little rule of three ?

To be divided by 3 by 2050… and will!

+ 25% in 2050?

The Kaya identity:

+ 2% per year = x 2 in 36 years; + 4% per

year = x 4 in 36 years!

Magic technique N° 1: ! NRJ per $ of GDP

Magic technique N° 2: ! CO2 per kWh = +nuke, RE, CCS & switch coal -> gas

Problem: ≈ 0% in 15 years!

Problem: ≈ 0% in 15 years!

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Questions?