stevenson f 22 brief
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June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 1
F-22 Fighter Performance
How does the F-22A compare a quarter century later?
By James P. Stevenson
Sponsored bythe Straus Military Reform Project
of theCenter for Defense Information
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 2
Great fighter characteristics
Obtain the first sightingOutnumber the enemy in the airOutmaneuver to gain firingpositionAchieve split second quick kills
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 3
F-22A replaces F-15
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 4
Why question Air Force?
Sprey’s summary is inconsistentwith what the senior Air Forcemanagement says we needAfter all …
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 5
Generals know best
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 6
Prepared for Pearl Harbor
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 7
So heavily armored …
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 8
and so heavily armed …
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 9
…fighters not needed…
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 10
… that bombers couldfly with impunity…
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 11
… reach their targets…
Such as theAugust 17, 1943raid onSchweinfurt,Germany
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 12
…and destroy Germanwar-making capabilities
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 13
But anti-aircraft was harsh,
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 14
Reality was harsher
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 15
The promised “so heavilyarmed and armored”
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 16
Air Force offered the P-47
Compared to theP-51, the P-47
Weighed twice asmuchCost twice andmuchCould not fly withbombers to theirtargets
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 17
P-51 imposed by FDR
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 18
As for destroying thewar-making capabilities
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 19
“Hap” Arnold assured us:No need to re-attack
“All five of the works at Schweinfurtwere either completely or almostcompletely wiped out. Our attackwas the most perfect example inhistory of accurate distribution ofbombs over a target. It was an attackthat will not have to be repeated fora very long time, if at all.”
Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army Air Forces, General H. H. "Hap" Arnold, said shortly afterthe first deep bomber raid on Germany
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 20
Reality: raids continuedFor another 20 monthswith 22 bombing raids,2,285 bombers,dropping 592,598 bombsuntil 10 April 1945Ball bearing plants werethe only targets, but AirForce destroyed 50% ofhomesQuestioning senior AirForce decisions doesn’tseem unreasonable
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 21
Great fighter characteristics
Obtain the first sightingOutnumber the enemy in the airOutmaneuver to gain firingpositionAchieve split second quick kills
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 22
Obtain first sighting
Topgun surveyWhat single advantage would you like
• Longer range missile• Longer range radar, etc.
Air Force position“First look, first shoot, first kill.”
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 23
The first sighting,electronically
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 24
F-4B: Guns not required
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 25
Radars ~ equal range
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 26
SecDef Perry:F-22 invisible to radars
"And [the F-22’s] biggest distinctiveadvantage over the F-15 or any otherairplane in the inventory today isthat it cannot be seen by the radars,either the ground-to-air defensesystem or the radars that drive theair-to-air missiles.”
William Perry, “Defense Department Budget Briefing.” (7 Feb.1994): A1, A-10.
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 27
F-117 “invisible”
Secretary ofDefense Perrymade similarremarks aboutthe F-117 asbeing invisibleto radar
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 28
Stealth in combat
F-117 had higher loss rate thanF-16 in Serbian air war2 F-117s hit from 1950s technology
(1 loss, 1 out of action)
However advanced, “stealth” aircrafthave to emit radar if enemy aircraftis running silent
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 29
Who do you want to bein a dark alley…
… the cop with the flashlight or the crook with a gun that fires light-homing bullets?
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 30
Radar-homing missile
AIM-7N anti-radiation missile used inDesert StormRussian’s have the R-27P, the newer R-77P,and a rumored R-77T anti-radiation missile
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 31
Russian R-27P for sale
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 32
F-22 rebuttal:Frequency hopping
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 33
Radars on or off?
Some assert that in the next airwar, all the radars will be off andthe air war will merge to aircombat maneuveringThis is what has happened in allprevious wars
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 34
The return of the dogfight
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 35
First sight wins the fight
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 36
“The biggest target in the sky,is always the first to die.”
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 37
F-22s are seen first
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 38
You didn’t see that?
Not invisible but not the first to be seen
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 39
Rearward visibility
In all air wars, 65-95% of pilotsnever saw who shot themIs the F-22 a step forward?
(What about the F-35 Joint StrikeFighter?)
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 40
Rearward visibilitypre-World War 2
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 41
Visibility after combat
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 42
Forgotten lessons
Dogfights a thing of the pastSmooth canopy to help top speed
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 43
F-22: a step forward?
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 44
Technology vs visibility
Rearwardvisibilitysacrificed forstealth
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 45
F-16 cockpit visibility
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 46
Rearward visibility trend
Rearward visibility sacrificed fortechnology
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 47
Great fighter characteristics
Obtain the first sightingOutnumber the enemy in the airOutmaneuver to gain firingpositionAchieve split second quick kills
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 48
Analysis without numbers
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 49
The effect of numbers
An increase in the total numberof aircraft in aerial combat drivesthe exchange ratio toward parityAIMVAL experience
1 v 1 (2 airplanes in the sky)• 3.8-to-1
4 v 4 (8 airplanes in the sky)• ~ 1-to-1
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 50
Aircraft enemy seesfor equal cost
Aircraft for equal cost X
Sortie Rate =
Available Aircraft for Equal Cost
F-22A 1 0.7 0.7
F-15C 3.4 1 3.4
F-16C 9.7 1.2 11.7
Source: Sorties rates come from Operation Desert Storm: Evaluation of the Air Campaign (GAO/NSIAD-97-134 (Washington, D.C.:General Accounting Office, June 1997) pp. 166, 169. Aircraft costs for F-22A come from December Selected Acquisition Reports.
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 51
Effect of numbersMe 262 had 100knots advantage incruise speed overP-51P-51 numbersovercametechnologyNumbers increaseprobability ofgetting the first shot
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 52
Missiles for equal cost
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 53
Vietnam AIM-7 promise
AIM-7 promisedProbability ofKill (PK)
80-90 percent
~ 8-9 out of 10
Vietnam actualkill rate
9.6 percent
~ 1 out of 10
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 54
F-22 claimedprobability of kill
The recent tests between F-15s andF-22s used a 0.65 probability of kill(PK) for the AMRAAM missile kills
Justification based on 1991 Iraqi combat
However, radar missile kills wereAIM-7Ms, not AMRAAMs.PK was .34 against non-maneuveringtargets
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 55
Friend from Foe
IFF has always been the weak linkIn every war since WWII, we’ve been told theIFF would workBut forces turned them off to avoid beingtracked
Assertion today is that it is fixedEvidence that F-15s in 1991 Iraq war hadautonomous right to fire beyond visualrange (BVR) from own electronics
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 56
Within visual range
AIM-9X
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 57
What about the AIM-82?
The AIM-9X of its dayClaimed: 955-to-1 kill-loss ratio
Used to sell the F-15
Reality: cancelled due to total failureThe IR missile may be improved butAir Force has screwed up the gun byrequiring a trap door to open prior tofiring it
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 58
Great fighter characteristics
Obtain the first sightingOutnumber the enemy in the airOutmaneuver to gain firingpositionAchieve split second quick kills
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 59
Fighter characteristics
Acceleration, maneuverability,and persistence are fundamentalcharacteristics to gaining a firingsolution
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 60
Input to acceleration
Higher thrust-to-weight ratio, betteracceleration
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 61
F-22A and F-15A weights
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 62
Thrust-to-weight compared
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 63
Acceleration time 0.8-1.2
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 64
Input to maneuverability
Lower wing loading, bettermaneuverability
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 65
Wing loadings compared
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 66
Input to persistence
Higher fuel fraction, greaterpersistence and/or range
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 67
Fuel fraction contributesto range and persistenceFuel Fraction
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 68
Fuel fraction 0.72Voyager around-the-world non-stop
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 69
1955 F-8 fuel fraction 0.30
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 70
2006 F-22 fuel fraction 0.275
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 71
F-22 and F-15 cruiseand maximum speed
F-22 F-15
SupersonicSubsonic
0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.0
Mach Numbers
10K
20K
30K
40K
50K
60K
Alt
itud
e
Cessna Citation 0.92
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 72
F-22 miles per pound of fuel
Cannot supercruiseabove this altitudewithout afterburner
Requires Afterburner
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 73
Great fighter characteristics
Obtain the first sightingOutnumber the enemy in the airOutmaneuver to gain firingpositionAchieve split second quick kills
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 74
Split-second kills.50 caliber of World WarII had quicker:
Time to first shot
Time of flight
Cumulative lethality
Today’s 20mm hasLonger start up time
Less range
Longer time to target than20mm of World War II
P-51 .50 caliber gun and 400 rounds
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 75
Split-second killsF-22 requires gun door toopen
M61A2 requires 1/2 secondstart up time
Missiles require 10-15seconds electronicacquisition time forcooperative threat
After acquired, missilelaunch requires openingmissile bay doors
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 76
To justify the F-22
Radar missile PK used to justifyF-22 requires leap of faith—
That combat PK will equal predictions• It never has
That IFF will work• It never has (even AWACS can’t tell a Hind from a Blackhawk)
That enemy will not fire an anti-radiationmissiles
• Russians are not selling anti-radiation missiles to our allies
That frequency-hopping radar will defeatanti-radiation missile
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 77
Ignore its weaknesses
F-22 does not have rearwardvisibility, acceleration,maneuverability, or persistence ofprevious era fightersF-22 costs prevent the purchase ofadequate numbers
Original requirement was for 750 butincreasing program acquisition unit cost of 3 for $1 billion, gives the Air Force . . .
June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 78
In round numbers,for equal $$$
F-22190 airplanesWeapons
• 1,140 AMRAAM missiles• 280 heat-seeking
missiles• 190 guns
Sustained sortierates of 133 F-22s
F-161,800 airplanesWeapons
• 7,200 AMRAAM missiles• 3,600 heat-seeking
missiles• 1,800 guns
Sustained sortierates of 2,160 F-16s