STEREO Space Weather STEREO Space Weather Beacon:Beacon:

March 2004March 2004

D.A. BieseckerD.A. BieseckerNOAA/SECNOAA/SEC

OutlineOutline

Ground station network statusGround station network status SEC’s priorities – and thus what you SEC’s priorities – and thus what you

might choose to do with STEREO might choose to do with STEREO datadata

What SEC can reasonably expect What SEC can reasonably expect from the STEREO datafrom the STEREO data

Ground Station PartnersGround Station Partners Earliest Beacon Mode operation April, 2006Earliest Beacon Mode operation April, 2006

End of phasing for ‘B’ s/c ~ 60 days after launchEnd of phasing for ‘B’ s/c ~ 60 days after launch None have yet signed on the bottom lineNone have yet signed on the bottom line

Moving along nicelyMoving along nicely Probables would give us the coverage we needProbables would give us the coverage we need Looking for redundancy wherever possibleLooking for redundancy wherever possible

Probables are NOAA (Fairbanks), NOAA (WallopsProbables are NOAA (Fairbanks), NOAA (Wallops)*,)*, RALRAL** (UK), CNES (France), and CRL (Japan) (UK), CNES (France), and CRL (Japan)

Possible is USAF (California), ACRES (Australia), Possible is USAF (California), ACRES (Australia), NOAA (Boulder)NOAA (Boulder)**

Others?Others? * primary tracking target is ACE* primary tracking target is ACE

Ground Station ParticularsGround Station Particulars NOAA/Wallops and NOAA/Fairbanks (13m)NOAA/Wallops and NOAA/Fairbanks (13m)

Formal request not yet made – needs to be a high priorityFormal request not yet made – needs to be a high priority Informal contacts indicate antenna availability likelyInformal contacts indicate antenna availability likely

CNES (9m near Toulouse)CNES (9m near Toulouse) Should receive confirmation soonShould receive confirmation soon Performance of antenna recently tested and additional Performance of antenna recently tested and additional

upgrades being considered to increase link marginupgrades being considered to increase link margin Technical exchange on-goingTechnical exchange on-going

RAL (12m, 2.4m and 3.7m)RAL (12m, 2.4m and 3.7m) ACE is primary here – use smaller dishes for ACE?ACE is primary here – use smaller dishes for ACE?

CRL (6m) – now 7mCRL (6m) – now 7m Expect decision on funding on April 1, 04. Preliminary word Expect decision on funding on April 1, 04. Preliminary word

is favorableis favorable Valley Forge (PA) Composite Technologies building new Valley Forge (PA) Composite Technologies building new

antennaantenna Technical exchange to start when budget approvedTechnical exchange to start when budget approved

Other beacon issuesOther beacon issues

MOU with NASAMOU with NASA Draft received from NASA in DecemberDraft received from NASA in December

Still needs action by SECStill needs action by SEC Formalizes the roles of SEC and SSCFormalizes the roles of SEC and SSC

Software to decode Viterbi encoded data Software to decode Viterbi encoded data in test (Phil Karn)in test (Phil Karn) Performance ‘slightly’ less than expected?Performance ‘slightly’ less than expected? Might force use of Turbo encoding earlier in the Might force use of Turbo encoding earlier in the

missionmission Still need actual s/c data for testingStill need actual s/c data for testing

N. Arge promises the followingN. Arge promises the followingfrom Wang-Sheeley workfrom Wang-Sheeley work

Given the s/c Given the s/c position in position in heliographic coord.heliographic coord. Solar wind and IMF Solar wind and IMF

radial polarity (Bx) radial polarity (Bx) forecasts (1-7 days)forecasts (1-7 days)

In time for In time for STEREO?STEREO? |B|, density, other B |B|, density, other B

componentscomponents

Predicted Solar Wind Speed at Earth

Predicted IMF Polarity at Earth

SEC’s Identified Needs: ISEC’s Identified Needs: I

Highest priority – Highest priority – in no particular orderin no particular order SEP event forecasts – start, peak, & end times; SEP event forecasts – start, peak, & end times;

peak flux, spectrum, fluence, probability of SEPpeak flux, spectrum, fluence, probability of SEP Energetic electron flux prediction for ISSEnergetic electron flux prediction for ISS Regional geomagnetic nowcasts and forecasts Regional geomagnetic nowcasts and forecasts

(e.g. Auroral electrojet maps)(e.g. Auroral electrojet maps) Ionospheric maps of TEC and scintillation Ionospheric maps of TEC and scintillation

(nowcasts and forecasts)(nowcasts and forecasts) Geomagnetic index forecasts (A, K, Dst) and Geomagnetic index forecasts (A, K, Dst) and

probability forecastprobability forecast

SEC’s Identified Needs: IISEC’s Identified Needs: II

High Priority – High Priority – in no particular orderin no particular order Geomagnetic activity predictions (1-7 days): CME’s, coronal Geomagnetic activity predictions (1-7 days): CME’s, coronal

holes, solar magnetic observations; and ACE/EPAMholes, solar magnetic observations; and ACE/EPAM Geomagnetic storm end time forecastGeomagnetic storm end time forecast Real-time estimates of geomagnetic indicesReal-time estimates of geomagnetic indices Improved image analysis capability (e.g. SXI, STEREO, SMEI)Improved image analysis capability (e.g. SXI, STEREO, SMEI) Short-term (days) F10.7 forecastShort-term (days) F10.7 forecast Short-term (days) X-ray flare forecastShort-term (days) X-ray flare forecast Geosynch. magnetopause crossing forecastsGeosynch. magnetopause crossing forecasts EUV indexEUV index Real-time quality diagnostics (verification) of all Real-time quality diagnostics (verification) of all

warning/watch/forecast productswarning/watch/forecast products Routine statistical/numerical guidance for all forecast Routine statistical/numerical guidance for all forecast

quantitiesquantities

NOAA/SEC use of STEREONOAA/SEC use of STEREO

Based on success of transitioning Based on success of transitioning missions such as ACE and SOHO into missions such as ACE and SOHO into operations; expectations are highoperations; expectations are high Most important lesson is probably the Most important lesson is probably the

time it took to integrate into forecast time it took to integrate into forecast centercenter

Expect STEREO to be faster just because Expect STEREO to be faster just because we’ll receive beacon data from startwe’ll receive beacon data from start

It needs to be faster due to changing It needs to be faster due to changing geometry and thus changing capabilitiesgeometry and thus changing capabilities

Transition to operationsTransition to operations

`Easiest’ products are data`Easiest’ products are data How to displayHow to display

3-d graphics3-d graphics Single s/c 2-d images still useful?Single s/c 2-d images still useful?

Halo CME observed at Earth is easily Halo CME observed at Earth is easily distinguished as front/back sided with one side distinguished as front/back sided with one side viewview

Interpretation must be straightforwardInterpretation must be straightforward Higher level productsHigher level products

Require interpretation of dataRequire interpretation of data

Coronal Mass EjectionsCoronal Mass Ejections Currently – SOHO/LASCOCurrently – SOHO/LASCO

Halo CME’sHalo CME’s 1-3 day advance warning of geomagnetic storm1-3 day advance warning of geomagnetic storm Uncertain hit/miss estimate for ‘partial’ halo CME’sUncertain hit/miss estimate for ‘partial’ halo CME’s error of error of ±11 hours in arrival time±11 hours in arrival time rough estimate of intensity and durationrough estimate of intensity and duration

STEREOSTEREO 3-d views of CME’s3-d views of CME’s

1-3 day advance warning of geomagnetic storm1-3 day advance warning of geomagnetic storm Continuous observations as CME propagates from Sun to EarthContinuous observations as CME propagates from Sun to Earth Reliable hit/miss prediction Reliable hit/miss prediction Potential for prediction of arrival time to within hours (or less?)Potential for prediction of arrival time to within hours (or less?) Improved estimate for storm durationImproved estimate for storm duration

e.g.e.g. CME related geomag storm CME related geomag storm

Did a CME occur? - dataDid a CME occur? - data Is it Earth directed?Is it Earth directed?

Halo – dataHalo – data Partial halo – reliable prediction needs more Partial halo – reliable prediction needs more

than datathan data When will it arrive? – more than dataWhen will it arrive? – more than data How long will the storm last? – more than How long will the storm last? – more than

datadata How strong will the storm be? – more than How strong will the storm be? – more than

datadata

STEREO beacon CME detectionSTEREO beacon CME detectionOVERVIEWOVERVIEW

Objective:Objective: Use near-real-time STEREO beacon Use near-real-time STEREO beacon data to infer direction, speed, data to infer direction, speed, extent, and mass of Earth-directed extent, and mass of Earth-directed CMEsCMEs

Application: Application: Advance warning of oncoming Advance warning of oncoming CMEs affecting geospaceCMEs affecting geospace

Forecast Gain: Forecast Gain: Immediate, HighImmediate, High

GRAPHICGRAPHIC

APPROACHAPPROACHStrategy: Strategy: Forward modeling study to Forward modeling study to develop understanding of stereo develop understanding of stereo images, then construction of ops images, then construction of ops analysis toolsanalysis tools

Uniqueness: Uniqueness: Only N-R-T beacon analysis Only N-R-T beacon analysis underway, is based upon underway, is based upon triangulationtriangulation

Context: Context: Complements tomographic Complements tomographic approachesapproaches

PROGRAMMATICSPROGRAMMATICSResources Needed: Resources Needed: 0.2 FTE level of effort0.2 FTE level of effortDevelopment Time: Development Time: 2-3 years at 0.2 FTE2-3 years at 0.2 FTECurrent Status: Current Status: Basic LOS Basic LOS routines routines done, analysis not yet starteddone, analysis not yet started

Recurring Solar Wind StreamsRecurring Solar Wind Streams

CurrentlyCurrently For first time stream – estimate from For first time stream – estimate from

longitude longitude Recurring stream – use previous Recurring stream – use previous

occurrence and changes in coronal hole occurrence and changes in coronal hole since then – 27 dayssince then – 27 days

STEREO – Lagging spacecraftSTEREO – Lagging spacecraft Use actual observation from ~few days Use actual observation from ~few days

earlierearlier Improved start time of high speed windImproved start time of high speed wind Improved end time of high speed windImproved end time of high speed wind Determination of high speed wind Determination of high speed wind

properties (properties (e.g.e.g. velocity) velocity)

Solar Wind Discontinuities (and Solar Wind Discontinuities (and more)more)

CurrentlyCurrently In-situ observation at L1In-situ observation at L1 ~1 hour warning of~1 hour warning of

n, V, n, V, BB

STEREOSTEREO Either spacecraft, depending on heliosphereEither spacecraft, depending on heliosphere

May potentially provide ~ 1 day warning of V, BMay potentially provide ~ 1 day warning of V, B

Weimer Weimer et al.et al. (2003) (2003)

EARTH

L1

ToSun

IMF

v

vv

Long-term ForecastsLong-term Forecasts

Current – up to 7 day leadCurrent – up to 7 day lead STEREO – 14 or more day leadSTEREO – 14 or more day lead

EUV FluxEUV Flux New equatorial coronal holesNew equatorial coronal holes New active regionsNew active regions Level of flaring activityLevel of flaring activity

DoneDone

Backup slides followBackup slides follow

Space Weather Beacon DataSpace Weather Beacon Data

All non-imaging data desiredAll non-imaging data desired High SWx forecast impact and low High SWx forecast impact and low

impact on telemetryimpact on telemetry The image data requires trade-offsThe image data requires trade-offs

High SWx forecast impact, high impact High SWx forecast impact, high impact on telemetryon telemetry

Which image data are most useful?Which image data are most useful?

SECCHI Draft Observing PlansSECCHI Draft Observing Plans

Hourly Plan 7 256 x 256 pixel imagesHourly Plan 7 256 x 256 pixel images 00 mins EUVI, COR1, COR200 mins EUVI, COR1, COR2 15 mins COR215 mins COR2 30 mins EUVI, COR230 mins EUVI, COR2 45 mins COR245 mins COR2

Hourly Plan 28 128 x 128 pixel imagesHourly Plan 28 128 x 128 pixel images EUVI every 5 minutesEUVI every 5 minutes COR1 every 6 minutesCOR1 every 6 minutes COR2 every 10 minutesCOR2 every 10 minutes

SEC Preferred Observing PlansSEC Preferred Observing Plans

Hourly Plan 7 256 x 256 pixel imagesHourly Plan 7 256 x 256 pixel images 00 mins COR2, HI1 or HI200 mins COR2, HI1 or HI2 15 mins COR215 mins COR2 30 mins COR230 mins COR2 45 mins COR245 mins COR2

Provides 4 images of 2500 km/s CME Provides 4 images of 2500 km/s CME (fastest)(fastest) ‘‘Reliable’ velocity and acceleration Reliable’ velocity and acceleration

determinationdetermination

256 x 256 EIT Images256 x 256 EIT Images

2x Enlargement

12 min cadence10.4”/pixel

128 x 128 EIT Images128 x 128 EIT Images

4x enlargement

12 min cadence20.8”/pixel

256 x 256 LASCO C3 Images256 x 256 LASCO C3 Images

2x Enlargement

~30 min cadence224”/pixel

128 x 128 LASCO C3 Images128 x 128 LASCO C3 Images

4x enlargement

~30 min cadence448”/pixel

Space Weather Beacon QuestionsSpace Weather Beacon Questions Observing planObserving plan

Piggyback on full resolution observing plan or some space Piggyback on full resolution observing plan or some space weather beacon only images? weather beacon only images?

Brightness or polarized images?Brightness or polarized images? EUVI wavelength scan?EUVI wavelength scan? HI-1 or HI-2 data?HI-1 or HI-2 data?

Non-image data?Non-image data? Brightest pixel in each 64 x 64 pixel block (32 x 32 pixel Brightest pixel in each 64 x 64 pixel block (32 x 32 pixel

image)image) Cosmic Ray Counts from HI ScrubbingCosmic Ray Counts from HI Scrubbing

Do we generate SW Beacon images when Do we generate SW Beacon images when we don’t know someone is listening ?we don’t know someone is listening ?