Steps to a Sustainable

Baltic Sea Region

Lars Rydén Director

Baltic University Programme Uppsala University

The Baltic University Programme

• a network of 180 universities & institutes of higher learning; • coordinated by a Secretariat at Uppsala University, Sweden;• focuses on sustainable development, environmental protection and democracy;

AimAim To support the key role that universities play in a democratic, peaceful and sustainable development by:

• developing university courses• participation in projects in cooperation with authorities, municipalities & others. 

The Baltic University Programme

In Figures

- 14 countries in the Baltic Sea Basin

- 183 universities

- 13 regional centres

- 1.500 teachers/researchers contributed

- 8.500 students yearly

Baltic University Programme’s Network

Locations where one or more universities participate

The Baltic University Programme

Activity areas

- education

- research

- information

- applied projects

The Baltic University Programme courses

Environmental Science courses

1. The Baltic Sea Environment

2. Environmental Science

3. English for Environmental Science

The Baltic Sea Region courses

1. The Baltic Sea Region – Cultures, Politics, Societies

2. Peoples of the Baltic

3. Regional Development and the Baltic Sea Region

Sustainable Development course

1. A Sustainable Baltic Region

The Baltic University Programme courses

Water Management courses1. Sustainable Water Management in Baltic Sea Region 2. The Baltic Waterscape3. The Use and Management of Water4. River Basin Management

Environmental Management courses1. Policy Instruments for Environmental Management 2. Cleaner Production & Technologies3. Product Design & Life Cycle Techniques 4. Environmental Management Systems & Certification

Sustainable community development courses1. The city2. Building sustainable communities3. Sustainable Urban Management

New Books from a New PublisherBaltic University Press

Something New Under the SunJohn McNeill, 2000

Development 1900 – 2000

• global population 4 x • global economy 14 x• industrial production 40 x• energy use 16 x• carbon dioxide emissions 17 x• sulphur dioxide emissions 13 x• ocean fishing catches 35 x • number of pigs 9 x • forests 0.8 x • agricultural fields 2 x • blue whale 0.0025 x

The Baltic Sea region development

• Energy budget 6-8 x• Fishing in the Baltic Sea 4-6 x ?• Forest production 2-4 x ?

Swedish energy budget 1900-2000

Development!From Joachim SpangenbergSustainable Europe Research Institute

1800 1900 2000

From

Wackernagel and Reese

authors of the ecolo-

gical footprint concept

Development!

How much space do we have?

- Surface area analysis - footprints a decrease of a factor of 2 globally is needed - Material flows analysis

a decrease of a factor of 2 globally is needed

- Energy flows analysis linked to material flows

But in industrial countries this makes a factor of close to ten !

Do we see changes at the turn of the millennium ?

Population Growth rate is decreasing since about 1994

Energy flows Globally a steady increase continues

Economic expansion Globally a steady increase continues

The problem of coupling or linking

Economy is coupled to material flowsIn industrial economies GDP is coupled to resources flows. However, in the west a significant increase in GDP/resource flow is seen in since 1970s.

But this gain is offset by an increased per capita consumption, the so called rebound effect.

In addition 98 % of the products in Europe are ending up as waste today. Linear flows dominate.

Resource flow/GDP asCO2 emissions 1970-2000

From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson, Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on IEA statistics

EU-15

Sweden

How to achieve decoupling ?

The service economy

We need to de-materialise the economy

The recycling society

We have to recycle the resources

The solar society

We have to de-carbonise the energy flows

We will look at four issues

1. Energy

2. Transport

3. Urbanisation

4. Demography

1. ENERGY

Current developments - Globally - energy consumption is increasing - Baltic Sea Region – slow increase; during periods constant - Energy use is dominated by fossil fuels - Today we use in the west about 100 energy slaves per person

Tendencies for the future:

• Coal is used less• Gas is used more• Transport sector consumption is increasing

No serious efforts to out-phase fossils

Costs of using fossil fuels

• Non-renewable resources are used• Climate effect, global warming• Acidification• Eutrophication• Air pollution• Pollution with heavy metals

The carbon content of the energyFrom Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson, Chalmers Universityof Technology, 2002 based on IEA statistics

Alternative energy developments 1.

Housing sector (About 30 % of energy budget)

• Energy efficient houses more common• Biomass in increasing • Heat pumps increasing in Sweden• Solar panels slowly increasing• Value of increased efficiency • 19 BSEK in Sweden alone

Alternative energy developments 2.

Industry sector (About 30 % of energy budget)

• Cleaner production approach introduced• Large potential for energy savings • Certification addresses energy• Product policies addresses energy

Energy intensity per sector (E/GDP)

- Industry- Transport- Service- Residential

From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson, Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on IEA statistics

Sustainable Development dimensions

Environmental Addresses the fundamental dilemma of non-

renewable resource use and pollution

Social Improved health potential

Economic Immense economic loss in present regime

2. TRANSPORT

Current developments

- Globally – mobility is increasing steeply - Baltic Sea Region – fast increase - Energy use is dominated by fossil fuels - Today we travel on an average 40 km/capita/day

Tendencies for the future:

- Transport sector consumption is dominated by cars - Up to one car per drivers licence - Tourism increasing - Commuting is increasing

No serious efforts to address mobility increase

Mobility developments EU-151980-2000

From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson, Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on EEA statistics

Mobility costs

• Non-renewable resource use

• Infrastructure costs• Increased forced

mobility• Health costs: pollution,

accidents• Economic costs

Alternative mobility developments 1

Urban and personal transport

• Decreased mobility – use of ICT• Decreased mobility – more efficient

urban planning• Decreased mobility – shop less far away• Improved public transport• Increased biking in cities • Mobility management initiatives

Alternative mobility developments 2

Technical - Alternative fuels introduced- Energy efficient cars have a

large potential - Ecological driving

Freight sector - Rail transport increasing- Transport addressed in

product policies- Safer ship transport in the

Baltic Sea?

Current developments - Cities as classical unhealthy environments less serious - Ecological footprints of cities very large - Globally – urbanisation increasing, now passed 50 % - Baltic Sea Region – urbanisation increasing, passing 90 % - Some mega cities – uneven development

Tendencies for the future:

- Urbanisation continues - Urban transport problems critical - Air pollution still problematic

No serious efforts to address urbanisation

3. URBANISATION

Alternative urban developments 1

Improved personal life- How people want to live – improved housing - Rebuilding slab house areas - Urban integrative planning - Cities for people, not cars

Alternative urban developments 2

Improved urban management- Improved energy management – district heating- Improved traffic planning – safer streets - Improved waste management- Greener cities- The factor five city is possible

Rural and urban cooperation - Economic alternatives to agriculture- Making town and rural life attractive

4. DEMOGRAPHY

Current developments - Globally – population growth is decreasing - Baltic Sea Region – population growth is levelling off - Population “collapse” in East is decreasing - Population is ageing (LE increases 3 months/year!)

Tendencies for the future - Population will stabilise - Public social care in crisis - Public income and social care in crisis

No serious efforts to address age challenge

Current developments - Globally – population growth is decreasing - Baltic Sea Region – population growth is levelling off - Population “collapse” in East is decreasing - Population is ageing (LE increases 3 months/year!)

Tendencies for the future - Population will stabilise - Public social care in crisis - Public income and social care in crisis

No serious efforts to address age challenge

Different types of development

Who are the actors ?

Actor/Action Resources

Poli- cies

Legal

rules

Pro-jects

Production

Practi-calities

Life styles

global x

region x x

nation x x

municipality x x

company x x

family x

individual x

Frames for practical work

1. Brundtland Commission, 1987Safeguarding possibilities for future generations

2. Rio Conference, UNCED, 1992 The 40 chapters in Agenda 21

3. The natural Step FoundationFour systems conditions for sustainable development

4. Eco-design wheel Eight steps to sustainable products and services

5. Alan Atiksson approach The compass, the pyramid

6. Finland’s Future Studies Academy Forecasting, back casting, visioning

Something New Under the Sun, John McNeill, 2000 The long term perspective 1

20th Century priorities

- International security and military might - Economic growth - Nationalism - From Totalitarian governance to Democracy

From

Wackernagel and Reese

authors of the ecolo-

gical footprint concept

Development!

The long term perspective 2

A crisis to get through?(in line with Johannesburg 2003)

- Safeguarding Biological productivity (e.g. in Baltic Sea)- Safeguarding Water - Safeguarding Biodiversity- Decoupling economic growth and material flows

The long term perspective 3

21st Century priorities

- Implementing a new energy regime with large consequences for both the transport sector and urban development

- A stabilised population

- Developing democracy sustainability strategies accepted in society

The Baltic University Urban Forum, BUUFThe Baltic University Urban Forum, BUUFCooperation to promote sustainable development

between cities/towns & universities in the BSR

AimAim - to develop strategies for sustainable development for cities and towns

.

Partners:Partners:

Organising partners: BUP, KTH, UBC

20 cities & towns in 9 countries,

15 universities & 3 NGO’s

The Union of Baltic Cities disseminates the results > 100 cities.

www.Balticuniv.uu.se/buuf 

Go Regional - Baltic Sea Region!Go Regional - Baltic Sea Region!

www.balticuniv.uu.sewww.balticuniv.uu.se