Stefan BringezuDirectorResearch Group Material Flows & Resource Management

Research foresight for Environment and SustainabilityWorkshop on mega-trends and surprises

EEA, Copenhagen, 14-15 May 2007

Environmentally important mega-trends

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Megatrends

Decouplingof economic growth and direct material and energy use (efficiency) in all countries although with different rate

Increasing global resource use and environmental impactsmainly through growth in DCs and TCs

EU shifts resource supply and environmental impacts to other regionslike other old-industrial countries, while improving domestic environmental quality

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Decouplingof economic growth and direct material and energy use (efficiency) in all countries although with different rate

Increasing global resource use and environmental impactsmainly through growth in DCs and TCs

EU shifts resource supply and environmental impacts to other regionslike other old-industrial countries, while improving domestic environmental quality

Megatrends

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Decoupling of resource use and environmental pressures

80

85

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100

105

110

115

120

125

130

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Index 1990=100 Gross domestic product at market prices [Millions of euro (at 1995 prices and exchange rates)]

Gross inland energy consumption [Thousands tonnes of oil equivalent (TOE)]

Emission of greenhouse gases [Global warming potential, CO2 equivalent, 1000 tonnes]

EMC (environmentally weighted material consumption) [Normalised (World 95) and equally weighted scores]

DMC [1000 tonnes]

Source: Eurostat NewCronos online database (GDP, energy, greenhouse gas emissions); van der Voet et al. 2004 (EMC); Eurostat/IFF 2004 (DMC); see also EEA Report no. 9/2005: Figure 3.3, p.20

EU15

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Decoupling aggregate material use and GDP

Source: EEA report 4/2005

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Technological progress needs time: Given a certain rate of increase of material productivity (GDP/material use) relative decoupling is higher with lower rates of economic growth

GDP growth p.a.: 2.3 % (EU15), 3.5 % (EU-10) GDP growth p.a.: 1.6 % (EU15), 3.2 % (EU-10)

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Decouplingof economic growth and direct material and energy use (efficiency) in all countries although with different rate

Increasing global resource use and environmental impactsmainly through growth in DCs and TCs

EU shifts resource supply and environmental impacts to other regionslike other old-industrial countries, while improving domestic environmental quality

Megatrends

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0

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30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Billion Tons

Biomass Coal Crude Oil Natural Gas Metal Ores Ind. & Constr. Minerals

Worldwide used extraction of resources

MOSUS Baseline scenario

Source: SERI; Giljum et al. 2007

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Total material requirement and economic growth

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1

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40

60

80

100

120

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35GDP per capita in `000 US$

TMR per capita in TonsV JP

USA

Japan

Finland

Netherlands

West-D

Czech Republic

Poland

China West-GermanyEU

UK

Italy

Germany

TMR per cap. in t

Source: different sources and Bringezu and Schütz 2001

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Decouplingof economic growth and direct material and energy use (efficiency) in all countries although with different rate

Increasing global resource use and environmental impactsmainly through growth in DCs and TCs

EU shifts resource supply and environmental impacts to other regions

I. mineral supply: geology, technology and market drivenII. shifting impacts: III. biomass supply:

Megatrends

(environmental) policy driven

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The EU has a growing net demand of foreign resources

PTB absolute

PTB of HF

PTB of TMR trade

Million tonnes

Source: Schütz et al. 2003

Physical trade balance of EU-15 considering hidden flows of imports and exports

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EC/ EU imports from developing countries

Developing countries .

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000

million tonnes

Newly industrialized . countries inside EUR .

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000

million tonnes

Newly industrialized countries . outside EUR .

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1976 1982 1988 1994 2000

Raw materials

Semimanufacturedand finished goods

ERs of raw materials

ERs ofsemimanufacturedand finished goods

DMI total imports

million tonnes

The EU induces growing Ecological Rucksacks (Hidden Flows) in other regions of the world Source: Schütz et al. 2003

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Resource-intensive imports from “Anchor countries”- MOSUS baseline EU-25

Resource intensive imports will increase

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

in billion US$

Turkey Mexico China Indonesia India Thailand Argentina Brasil

Source: SERI; Giljum et al. 2007

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Ever decreasing ore grades are going to be used

Source: U. Dorner after PreConsultants 2002

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Environmental Impact of Copper Mine Ok Tedi Mine, Papua New Guinea

These images show environmental impact of the mine

• 1990: Both the mine and township of Tabubil, are clearly visible

• 2004: Raised river beds, forest damage and decline in biodiversity are some impacts

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Shifting problems: the case of Platinum Group Metals

* Assumptions: 1.4-2 L cylinder capacity, Euro III, 3.5 g PGM / car, 100 000 km / car during lifetime, -1.8 g NOx / km, -0.07 g CH4 / km, +1 g CO2 / km

The use of primary PGM in Europe implies:

• extremely high SO2 emissions in Siberia (outdated technology for the smelting process)

• high CO2 emissions in South Africa (92 % of power generation from coal)

• extreme amounts of TMR and related mining waste

For the production of 1 t primary PGM

• 1800 t SO2eq emissions

• 23 450 t CO2eq emissions

• 388 600 t TMReq

… occur concentrated in other regions

Source: Mathieu Saurat and Stefan Bringezu

1 t primary PGM used in car catalysts* would help to avoid

• 51 400 t NOx 36 000 t SO2eq

• 2000 t CH4 (28 600 t CO2eq) 17 400 t CO2eq

… diffusely emitted in Europe

equivalent to

equivalent to+ increased fuel cons. net effect

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Global land use for consumption of agricultural goods in 1.000 m2/cap

Source: Bringezu 2005 / Steger 2005

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Scenarios for biofuels and land use

Additional land requirements (in 1000 m2/cap) for biofuels add to the exceedance of global land use availability.

A significant reduction of animal based food could provide room for the production of non-food crops (in 1000 m²/cap).

Source: Bringezu 2005 / Steger 2005

If the EU uses 18% biofuels in 2030, it will have fuelled up nearly total of its „fair share“ of all natural grasslands and savannas

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Conversion of forests into palm plantations in Papua, Indonesia

• 1990: a new human presence, earth colored roads provide access to the forest

• 2000: rectilinear patterns cover 10,000 ha

• 2002: Cleared area nearly doubles since 2000

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Conclusions

We need more information on

the EU´s global resource use- material resources- land use

shifts of burden to regions outside the EU- environmental impacts- socio-economic implications- security issues

potentials for absolute reduction and a more balanced pattern of domestic and foreign resource use