stats pc q1 2014

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055

The following statistical summary of the Park CIty Market is comprised of condominium, single family and vacant lot activity in areas 1 - 23 as defined by the Park City Multiple Listing Service. Throughout the following slides, I have defined this as Greater Park City, or simply GPC. Slides pertaining to distressed sales or foreclosures are for all of Summit County.

Park City Real Estate Q1 2014 Review


Todays topics:

DemandSupplyCash SalesDistressed and Foreclosure SalesPricing Trends Market Segmentation Summary

Park City Real Estate Sta7s7cs

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Q1 2014 Poster Child

Represents 47% of condo sales in areas 1 - 9Represents 13% of all condo and SF sales GPC


NAR announced (4/28/14) the pended home sales index for March improved 3.8% last month; this was the first improvement in eight straight months but remains 8% below one year ago and is at lowest point since February 2012.

Dr Yun attributed this increase to improving weather, but blamed reduced demand due to 1) low inventory; 2) restrictive credit; 3) affordability - home prices rising faster than income.

GPC PSHI for February was dismal: down 18% from January and down 20% from March 2013. However, March was phenomenal: up 49% from February and up 15% from March 2013.

Demand: Pending Sales

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Demand: Pending Sales

Similar to and different from the na0onal market

70.0

80.0

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120.0

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Jan-01

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1

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NAR & GPC Pending Home Sales Index !"#$%&'()*+

Source: NAR, PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

National PSHI Park City PSHI

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Demand: Pending Sales

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Pended Sales: Greater Park City As of 3/2014

Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein!!

Land SFR Condos


Pended sales for Q1 2014 aredown 1.5% from Q1 2013up 16% over Q1 2012

Demand: Pending Sales

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Pended Sales: Greater Park City 1st Quarter Comparison

(as of 3/2014) Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

VL SF CO

55%

26%

19%


NAR stated (4/22/14) existing sales were flat in March; slipped 0.2% from February to a SAAR of 4.59M and are 7.5% below the 4.96M pace in March 2013. This is the lowest sales volume since July 2012.

Dr Yun said that “current sales activity is underperforming by historical standards. There really should be stronger levels of home sales given our population.” He expects a strong spring season.

GPC had different results: the three month rolling average saw an 8.5% increase over February and a 6% increase in sales over March 2013.

Demand: Exis7ng Sales

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Demand: Exis7ng Sales

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NAR and PC # of Transactions As of 3/2014

Source NAR, PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

NAR SAAR Left Axis PC 3 Mo Rolling Avg Right Axis


Actual sales in March jumped 25% over February; they were 4% higherthan March 2012.

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# of

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Closed Sales: Greater Park City (as of 3/2014)

Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

CO SF VL


Closed sales for 2013 are 6.3% above 2012 and22.1% above 2011Highest Q1 since 2007


51%

32%

17%

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Closed Sales: Greater Park City 1st Quarter Comparison


Condo Sf VL

Past 5 years annual composi0on closed:Condo. 45%; SF 40%; VL 15%


Volume for Q1 2014 is 16.6% above Q1 2013 and38.3% above Q1 2012


42%

11%

48%

0

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Voum

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Greater Park City Quartly Volume 1st Quarter Comparison


Condo SF VL


Volume for Q1 2014 is 19.4% above Q1 2013 and44.2% above Q1 2012


33%

10%

57%

0

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Greater Park City Annual Volume 1st Quarter 12 month comparison


Condo SF VL


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NAR: Total housing inventory at the end of March rose 4.7% to 1.99M existing home, which represents a 5.2 month supply at the current sales pace, compared with 5.0 months in February. Unsold inventory is 3.1% above a year ago, when there was a 4.7 month supply.

GPC total listings April 1st was 1,124; this is down 6% from February and is near the low of 1,113 listings in December. However, current inventory is down 4% from this time last year. The absorption rate has increased 9.7 months due to the reduced number of sales.

Supply: Inventory


1,124 Lis0ngs 4/1/14 -‐ at historic lows

Supply: Inventory

40%

32%

28%

0

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# of

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ings

Active Listings - Greater Park City (Inventory as of first of the month)

April 2014 Source: PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

VL SF CO


Absorp0on rate at 9.7 monthsIncrease due to lower sales Q1

Average absorp0on rate between 1/10 and 3/14 is 12.6 months

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# of

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Absorption Rate (ex lots): Greater Park City As of April 2014

!"#$%&'()(*+(,+$$-./(#0/12(Source: PC MLS/ Compiled by Rick Klein

Supply: Inventory

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Supply: 4/1/14 compared to 4/1/13

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Supply: Q1 14 Absorp7on Rate Per Area

* # of Sales based upon past 12 months

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NAR: cash sales were 33% of transac?ons in March, compared with 35% in February and 30% in March 2013. Investors, who account for most cash sales, purchased 17% of homes in March. 71% of investors paid cash.

GPC: cash sales declined to 47% in Q1 2014, down a whole 1% from 2013.

Cash Sales

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Cash Sales

26%

35%

45%

50% 48%

50% 48% 47%

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 2014

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Cash Sales History Source: PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

Cash Sales


NAR: Distressed homes accounted for 14% of sales in March - 10% REO and 4% short sales; they were 21% in March 2013. Foreclosures sold for 18% below market value and short sales were discounted 12%

GPC distressed properties accounted for 5.8% of Q1 2014 sales up from 3.4% Q4 2013 but down sharply from 13% in Q1 2013. Distressed sales sold for only 2% below market transactions.

Distressed Sales

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Distressed Sales

2.36%

0.93%

3.41%

0.14%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

% Sold % Listed

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Summit County Distressed Sales and Listings Q1 2014 All Property types excluding fractionals

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Short Sale Bank Owned

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Distressed Sales

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45.0% Q

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4

Percent of Distressed Sales Summit County All Property types excluding fractionals

Source: Summit County Recorder, PCMLS/Compiled by Rick Klein

Short Sale REO

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Distressed Sales & Pricing

As percentage of distressed proper0es declines, difference in sales price narrows

0.00%

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$350,000

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All Ex Distressed % Distressed right axis

Greater Park City Median Prices

6 month rolling average (as of 3/2014)

Source: PCMLS/Coompiled by Rick Klein

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Shadow Inventory/Foreclosures

Core Logic announced (4/29/2014) 48,000 foreclosures in March down 10% from one year ago. Before the recession foreclosures averaged 21,000 per month. Since Sept 2009, 5.0M homes have been foreclosed. Approx. 720,000 homes are in some stage of foreclosure compared to 1.1M last year; a 37% decline.

Black Knight Financial Services (formerly LPS) stated delinquencies are below 6% for the first time since 2008.

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Shadow Inventory/Foreclosures

The average loan in foreclosure is now2.6 years past due (vs. 0.7 years in 2008)

Source: Black Knight Financial ServicesFormerly LPS


Q1 2013 NODs are down 53% and TTDs are down 17% from Q1 2013

Shadow Inventory/Foreclosures

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Foreclosure Report - Summit County Includes all property types except fractioinals

Source: Summi County Recorder/Compiled by Rick Klein

Notice of Default Trustee's Deed

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Home Prices

NAR (4/22) stated median existing home price rose 7.9% to $198,500 from one year ago.

Case Shiller announced (4/29) home prices increased 12.9% for the 12 months ending February for the 20-City Composite. However, 13 out of 20 cities saw a decline in February.

FHFA stated (4/23) home prices increased 6.9% for the 12 months ending February 2014 and were up 0.6% from December.

CoreLogic reported (5/6) home prices increased 11.1% year over year in March; this is the 25th consecutive month of YOY price gains. Excluding distressed sales, prices up 9.5%. Utah up 9.2%

GPC 6 month rolling median was $526,133 in March up 1.9% from last year; GPC 12 month median was $511,500 up 2.3% from one year ago.


Federal Housing Finance Agency


Source: FHFA


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NAR and PC Median Price Trends As of 3/2014

Source: NAR, PCMLS/Rick J. Klein

US Median left axis PC Median right axis


2013: 6 month rolling avg. up 2%

Home Prices

$0

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Greater Park City Median Prices 6 month rolling average


6 mo Median Price


Q1 2014: 12 month median price up 2.3% above Q1 2013Up 6.6% above Q1 2012

Home Prices

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GPC 12 Month Median Prices As of 3/2014


Median Price


Q1 2014: 12 month average price up 3.4% above Q1 2013up 5.8% above Q1 2012

Home Prices

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GPC 12 Month Average Prices As of 3/2014


Average Price


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Evidence of a 0me lag effect?

Home Prices

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Home Prices by Segment

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Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Home Prices by Segment

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Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Q1 2014 Snap Shot

*Median: based on 12 months

2013 2014 % change 2013 2014 % changeCO 1-9 CO 10-23Listings 3/31 273 265 -2.9% Listing 3/31 161 188 16.8%# transactions 333 367 10.2% # transactions 272 366 34.6%Median 522500 515,000 -1.4% Median 308,750 350,000 13.4%Volume 284,143,572 298,511,194 5.1% Volume 90,091,024 137,490,096 52.6%

SF 1-9 SF 10-23Listing 3/31 155 140 -9.7% Listing 3/31 205 221 7.8%# transactions 178 187 5.1% # transactions 371 405 9.2%Median 1,075,000 1,257,000 16.9% Median 665,000 710,000 6.8%Volume 276,546,251 344,254,660 24.5% Volume 347,087,937 408,241,620 17.6%

VL 1-9 VL 10-23Listing 3/31 62 54 -12.9% Listing 3/31 311 256 -17.7%# transactions 50 38 -24.0% # transactions 155 208 34.2%Median 502,500 677,000 N/A Median 225,000 270,825 20.4%Volume 34,822,150 37,848,418 8.7% Volume 48,317,995 90,767,040 88%

GPC Areas 1-23 CO, SF, VL 2013 2014 % change

Listings 3/31 1167 1122 -3.9%# transactions 1359 1571 15.6%Median 500,000 510,000 2.0%Volume 1,061,162,586 1,277,092,157 20.3%

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055Mortgage Rates

30 Year Fixed 5/1 ARM

Conforming 4.375%4.460% APR

3.250%3.001% APR

High Balance($600,300)

4.250%4.292% APR

3.500%3.048% APR

Non-Conforming 4.125%4.153% APR

3.000%2.861% APR

Rates quoted for a purchase transac?on (as of 5/09/14)

Conforming 15 year fixed: 3.500%; APR 3.647%

Rick J. Klein435 647 9055In Summary

Demand remains strong: total number of sales for the past 12 months are up 15.5%

Inventory declined 3.7% over the past year and remains at historic lows since 2007.

Property prices show sustained, albeit muted appreciation. Median prices have increased 2% in the past year.

Our market is highly segmented; consumers need knowledgeable professional agents for selling or purchasing property.

Distressed sales were less than 6% of our sales in the first quarter and NODs have declined over 50% in the past six months.

Rates are great too many homes are being financed with cash.

stats pc q1 2014

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