statkraft investor update q3 2018 · q1 2017 q3 2018 proceeds from asset disposals net interest...
TRANSCRIPT
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Statkraft Investor Update
Q3 2018
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Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by, and the information contained herein (unless otherwise indicated) has been provided by Statkraft AS (the
"Company"). By attending the meeting or otherwise viewing this presentation you agree to be bound by the following conditions.
This document and the information therein are being furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, in
whole or in part, to any other person.
This document does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire
securities of the Company or any of its subsidiaries in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity.
No part of this document, nor the fact of its distribution or reception, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or
investment decision whatsoever.
This document is not a prospectus and does not comply with rules or regulations regarding investor information, and has not been approved by or filed with
any stock exchange or regulatory authority.
Amongst others, this document does not disclose risks and other significant issues related to an investment in any securities.
Investors should only subscribe for any transferable securities on the basis of information in a relevant prospectus and term sheet, and not on the basis of any
information provided herein.
The information contained in this document has not been independently verified and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no
reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein.
None of the Company, or any of its affiliates, advisers or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss
howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this document.
The information contained in this document is provided as at the date of this document and is subject to change without notice.
This document may not be distributed or delivered to any person or in any jurisdiction where such distribution is unlawful or restricted. This document may not
be delivered in the United States or to any person or entity in the United States.
2
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Agenda
3
Statkraft overview
Strategy and investment ambition
Funding and liquidity
Financial update
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EMPLOYEES
3 500
POWER PRODUCTION
62.6 TWh 97% renewable
CONSOLIDATED CAPACITY
17 478 MW
NEPAL
Statkraft at a glance
INDIA
USA
PERU BRAZIL
CHILE
IRELAND
FRANCE
NETHERLANDS
NORWAY SWEDEN
GERMANY
SOUTH EAST EUROPE
ALBANIA
TURKEY
UK
= Hydropower
= Gas power
= Wind power
= Bio power
= District heating
= Trading and
__Origination
= Solar power
NORWEGIAN STATE OWNED
100 %
CREDIT RATING
A- / BBB+ S&P and Fitch
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Strong ownership support
5
Statkraft 100% owned by the Norwegian State
- Norwegian State rated Aaa / AAA / AAA
Support through equity injections
- NOK 14 billion in 2010 and NOK 5 billion in 2014, after parliamentary approval
Revised dividend policy
- Based on recommendation from Board of Statkraft
- Reduced dividend payout ratio for non-Norwegian hydropower earnings
Ownership support Statkraft’s corporate credit ratings
- Uplift from both S&P and Fitch
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Key credit strengths
6
Strong market
position
Owned by the
Norwegian
state (AAA/Aaa)
Historically strong
support from owner
Balance sheet
flexibility
Investment program
adapted to financial
capacity
Stable cash
flow
Long-term industrial
contracts stabilize
cash flow
A low-cost and flexible
generator of
renewable electricity
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Solid EBITDA despite volatile Nordic and European power prices
7
0,00
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
60,00
70,00
80,00
2010-012012-012014-012016-012018-012020-01
Nordics
Germany
Quarterly average electricity prices
Source: Prices from Nord Pool Spot, Nasdaq OMX and EEX as of Q4 2018. * Items in underlying EBITDA changed in 2017
EUR/MWh
2011 2013 2012 2016 2015 2014
Underlying EBITDA incl. share of profit
from equity accounted investments
Bn NOK
2010 2012 2014 2 016 2018 2020 2017*
11,8 12,2
13,5 12,8
10,9
13,9
14,4
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Primarily a Nordic hydropower company
8
European Flex International
power
Wind power District Heating Market
Operations
Segments and underlying EBITDA* contribution 2017
70.0 % 3.1 % 2.9 % 2.3 % 2.9 %
* Excluding gain/loss from acquisitions/divestments of business activities
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European flexible generation: Maximize value of hydropower assets
9
Priority #1: Protect and improve value of
Nordic hydropower
Production assets with low marginal cost,
high flexibility, great longevity and almost
zero carbon emissions
Unique optimizations skills leading to a
premium price capture through an integrated
business model
Operate gas-fired power plants in Germany
Priority #1: Protect and improve
value of Nordic hydropower
European flexible generation
242 hydropower and 5 gas fired power plants
totalling 15 580MW capacity
Europe’s largest producer of electricity from
hydropower
1/4 of Europe’s reservoir capacity
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Statkraft cash costhydro 2015
Cash cost gas Cash cost coal Cash cost nuclear
EUR/MWh
10
1 Annual Report 2017: Production cost 95 NOK/MWh. Production cost, incl. property tax and depreciation, excl. sales costs, net financial items and tax. This is divided
by 7 years average output from power plants under own management. 2 Cash costs for coal and gas: Estimates for modern plants. 3 Estimates for nuclear plants in Sweden / Finland is around 17-22 EUR/MWh. In Sweden nuclear tax adds to this, but Parliament has decided to phase-out nuclear tax.
Average price Nordics
2018 (YTD Q3):
~ 42.8 EUR/MWh
2 3 1 2
Full cost incl. depreciation: ~ 9.83 EUR/MWh1
Statkraft production cost
hydro 2017
Statkraft has a unique cost position
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Securing long term revenues in the Nordics
Nordic long term industrial contract
~ 2.5 TWh/yr new long-
term contracts entered
2017/2018
Majority of Statkraft’s 18 TWh/yr
LTC portfolio expire in 2020
11
Statkraft is actively evaluating additional hedging opportunities
Yearly average production in Nordics approx. 56 TWh for the period
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Serving needs across the whole value chain; from
market access and hedging to green power supply
12 12
Market Operations
Statkraft offer tailor-made solutions for power
producers and consumers
Managing third parties’ renewable production:
20.000 MW
Market Operations: Value creation through a market oriented and adaptable organization
Market access, Solar PV, Venture Capital, Dynamic
Assets Management Portfolio (DAMP), Trading and
Origination
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International Power: Building a sustainable and
profitable position
13
27 hydropower plants and 4 wind farms in operation
in Southeast Europe, South-Asia and South
America
India
Brazil
Chile
Peru
Turkey
Albania
Securing long term revenues International Power
Evaluating hydro-, wind- and solar power
opportunities in selected markets
More than 1.000 MW in operations
Established positions in several emerging markets
- Long-term economic growth
- Rising energy demand
- Increased demand for renewables
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Wind power: Utility scale business model in Europe
Solid track record in delivering projects on cost and
time
Europe’s largest onshore wind power project under
construction in Norway; Fosen 1000 MW
14 14
Existing
Under construction
Planned
Wind Power
Ensure strong North European onshore presence
and major player in the Nordic wind power market
with 790 MW in operation
11 wind farms in operations in Norway, Sweden and
UK
~1500 MW development portfolio in Ireland and UK
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15
District Heating: Continue to strengthen profitability through efficient operations
17 plants in Norway and Sweden with ~1.1 TWh
annual production
Limited capex going forward
Increased profitability through optimization of
existing portfolio
Harstad
Kungsbacka
Trosa
Ås
Moss/Rygge Vagnhärad
Nannestad
Sandefjord
Trondheim Stjørdal
Namsos
Åmål
Gardermoen
District Heating
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16
PIP: Strengthening of:
– Competitiveness
– Cost efficiency
– Performance
Reduced investment level
Restructured international power
Divestments
– Offshore wind
– SN Power
Revised dividend policy
Capitalize on our competitive advantages
Maintain and reinvest in existing asset base
Grow in renewable energy and market
operations
New business development
2016 - 2018 2019 +
Consolidation Profitable growth
Positioning for growth
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540
800
260
Cost reductions from the Performance Improvement Programme
17
Remaining Realised Target cost reduction
Estimated cost
savings 2016-2018
Estimated reduction of the cost base per Q3
2018 compared to 2015 baseline is
approximately 540 MNOK
Achieved cost reductions mainly through
reductions in personnel, consultancy and
travel costs and the ongoing exit of Offshore
Wind Power
The program is on track to deliver the
targeted cost reductions of 800 MNOK
Comments
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800
6 200
5 950 650
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
Large proceeds and financial improvements from asset disposals
18
Triton
Knoll SN Power Scira1 Fjordkraft Total
Proceeds Dudgeon
NOK million
Q4 2017 Q1 2018
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
Q1 2017 Q3 2018
Proceeds from asset disposals Net Interest bearing debt2
1 Excluding proceeds related to sell down from 50% to 40% in Q4 2014 2 Net Interest bearing debt from Interim Report Q3/2018
15 300
1 700
28 231
15 457
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Agenda
19
Statkraft overview
Strategy and investment ambition
Funding and liquidity
Financial update
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RAMP UP AS WIND
AND SOLAR DEVELOPER
20
OPTIMISE HYDRO-
POWER PORTFOLIO
GROW THE
CUSTOMER BUSINESS
DEVELOP NEW
BUSINESS INITIATIVES
Statkraft’s new strategy
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Hydropower and other flexible generation
New hydro is challenged on costs, but the need for
flexibility increases and provides a good starting point for
a flexible hydropower player with market expertise
Priorities:
1) Protect and improve value of Nordic hydropower
- Focus on refurbishments, operational improvement, regulatory
work, hedging
2) Opportunistic acquisitions or portfolio swaps
- Restructuring Norwegian regional companies
- Bid for French hydro auctions
- Actively pursue acquiring hydropower in operation or in
construction with particular competitive advantages
3) Operate gas-fired power in Germany
21
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Massive ramp up as wind and solar developer
Solar and wind become the cheapest way to build new power
generation - huge growth expected in all countries
Priorities:
1) Taking on a developer role
- High value creation for Statkraft in the development phase
- Develop and construct projects, and then partially sell down
2) Ramp up in onshore wind (6 GW) and solar (2 GW)
- Wind: Substantial growth in Europe, and South America and India
- Solar: Utility scale solar and commercial size distributed installations.
3) Hedge revenues of wind and solar to mitigate risk
4) Develop batteries and hybrid storage systems
22
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Grow the customer business
More complex energy markets and customers taking stronger
interest in renewable energy. Statkraft well positioned with deep
market expertise and renewable assets
Priorities:
1) Significant ramp up of customer part of market operations
- Take a position as a leading provider of market solutions for renewable
energy for large customers
- Provide market access, hedging, distributed energy solutions and green
power supply to large customers
2) One of top three in District Heating in Norway and
Sweden
3) Continue growth in EV charging through Grønn Kontakt
23
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New opportunities in the energy transition
Norway is an early mover in the energy transition,
through decarbonisation and electrification
Priorities:
Develop new business arising from the green shift
in Norway that has potential internationally:
1) Data centres: Develop, market and sell ready-
to-build data centre site prospects
2) Biofuels: Aim to produce 2nd generation
biofuel from wood feedstock
3) Hydrogen: Investigate business opportunities
in production of renewable hydrogen
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Investment ambition 2018 - 2025
25
Investment ambition 2018 – 2025 subject to financial capacity:
− Average NOK 10 bn per year
Committed to maintain current ratings
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Maintenance and reinvestments Decided investments Reserved Flexibility
NOK billion
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79 %
11 %
2 % 8 %
Norway
Nordic region excl. Norway
Europe excl. Nordic region
The rest of the world
77 %
14 %
2 % 7 %
Norway
Nordic region excl. Norway
Europe excl. Nordic region
The rest of the world
Post investment ambition - predominantly a Nordic hydropower producer
Generation
EBITDA
26
2018 2025
58 %
10 %
15 %
17 %
60 % 9 %
15 %
16 %
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Agenda
27
Statkraft overview
Strategy and investment ambition
Funding and liquidity
Financial update
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Strong credit ratings
28
A- / Stable BBB+ / Stable
Maintaining current ratings with S&P and Fitch
Strong support from owner
CAPEX adapted to financial capacity
Rating impact assessment completed prior to new investment decisions
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Liquidity position
NOK 9.2 bn [1.0] Revolving Credit Facility with
10 core banks
- Matures 2022
NOK 1bn [0.11] in committed credit line renewed
on a yearly basis
EMTN Programme EUR 6bn
- EUR 3.1 bn available under current Programme
No commercial papers outstanding
Available liquidity and target
1 Liquidity capacity defined as cash and cash equivalents, plus committed
revolving credit facilities, plus projected receipts for the next six months
Liquidity and market access
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q32018
EUR million NOK million
Revolving Credit Facility Credit Line Cash and Cash equivalents
Liquidity capacity target1: >1.5x projected
payments over next six months
29
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Balanced debt maturity and mixed funding sources
Debt maturity profile 30.09.2018 Distribution of funding sources
30
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Funding overview
31
Norwegian bond and Commercial Paper market
Euro bond market
Swedish bond market
Sterling and Swiss Franc bond markets
considered
Funding need Funding sources
Funding centralized on group level
Flexibility through diversification of funding sources and maintaining sufficient back-stop facilities
Funding need going forward determined by cash flow
from operations and capex
NOK 2.7 bn redemption in Q2 2019
Funding strategy
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Agenda
32
Statkraft overview
Strategy and investment ambition
Funding and liquidity
Financial update
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NOK million Q3 2018 Q3 2017 YTD 2018 YTD 2017
The year
2017
Net operating revenues and
other income 5 656 4 650 18 817 16 651 23 350
Operating profit/loss (EBIT)
underlying 2 679 1 437 10 069 7 476 10 824
Net profit 1 265 1 783 11 818 6 417 11 710
Nordic prices measured in EUR up 77% Q-on-Q
Overall generation down 3% Q-on-Q
Operating expenses down 7% Q-on-Q
Key figures
33
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Financial performance
34
6.7%
10.6%
Q2
6.4%
10.1%
6.5%
Q4
8.3%
Q1 Q3
9.7%
Q1 Q2 Q4 Q3
10.5%
12.5%
Q1
11.9%
Q2
13.2%
Q3
ROACE: Underlying EBIT last 12 months / Average capital employed
12 months rolling ROACE of 13.2%
- Improvement compared with the year 2017 due to higher underlying operating profit (rolling 12
months), primarily driven by higher Nordic power prices
- Average capital employed stable
2016 2017 2018
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Price drivers and the German power market
35
Q3 2018 vs. Q3 2017
Coal, CO2 and gas prices increased
German power prices up by 63%
- Mainly related to higher gas and CO2
prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1-
2017
Q1-
2016
Q3 Q2 Q1-
2015
Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-
2018
Q3
Coal, ARA (USD/t)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q3 Q3 Q1-
2015
Q3 Q1-
2016
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q2 Q1-
2017
Q2 Q4 Q1-
2018
Q2
CO2, EUA (EUR/t)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q4 Q1-
2015
Q2 Q2 Q4 Q3 Q1-
2016
Q3 Q2 Q1-
2017
Q4 Q2 Q3 Q1-
2018
Q3
Gas, NBP/TTF (EUR/MWh)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q4 Q1-
2017
Q3 Q1-
2015
Q1-
2016
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-
2018
Q3
EEX, base (EUR/MWh)
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Nordic reservoir level
Rapid increase mid-quarter due to high precipitation
Weather drier than normal in Q2
Nordic reservoir level (total market) at 87% of median at the end of
September 36
0
20
40
60
80
100
Q1 Q4 Q2 Q3
Median
2018
2017
%
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Nordic system price, monthly average
Nordic power prices 50.5 EUR/MWh, up 77% Q3 2018 vs. Q3 2017
EUR/MWh
37
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Q4 Q3 Q1-
2015
Q2 Q4 Q2 Q1-
2016
Q3 Q3 Q1-
2017
Q2 Q4 Q1-
2018
Q2 Q3
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Energy management
38
Q3 generation down 3% Q-on-Q
Technology TWh Change in TWh
Hydropower 12.0 -0.2
Wind power 0.6 0.1
Gas power 0.5 -0.3
Bio and solar power 0.1 0.0
Total 13.1 -0.4 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
May Jul Jan Aug Mar Feb Apr Jun Sep Oct Nov Dec
2017 2018
Stormyr dam, Nedre Røssåga hydropower plant
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Q3 net operating revenues and other income
39
NOK million
Sales revenues less energy purchase
247 223 172 212
-308
-39
284
-339
277
-441
Customers Generation Grid, sale of gas
and other revenues
Trading &
Origination
Other operating
income
Transmission
costs
Total net operating
revenues and
other income
4 106
5 656
5 915
4 650
+22%
Q3 2017 Q3 2018
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NOK 2.7 billion in underlying EBIT
Underlying EBIT up NOK 1243 million Q-on-Q
Primarily driven by higher Nordic power
prices. This was partly offset by lower
contribution from Nordic origination, value
reduction of long-term contracts in Brazil and
negative effects from market access activities.
NOK 237 million in reduced opex Q-on-Q
40
NOK million
1 437
2 679
7 476
10 069
Q3 2017 Q3 2018 YTD 2017 YTD 2018
+86%
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Financial items
41
NOK million
Breakdown Net financial items Q3 2018
105
402
282
Other financial items Currency gains and losses
214 199
Interest income Interest expenses Net financial items Q3 2018
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Underlying EBIT Q3 2017 Q3
2018
Q3 net profit breakdown
42
NOK million
Booked net profit affected by unrealised value changes from energy derivatives
Underlying EBIT Q3 2018 Net Profit Q3 2018
Underlying EBIT ∆ +86% Q-on-Q
1 437
2 679
1 265
1 006
237 518
139 352
402
1 528
Q3 2017
Operating
profit/loss
(EBIT)
underlying
Impairments
17
Operating
expenses
Net operating
revenues and
other income
Q3 2018
Operating
profit/loss
(EBIT)
underlying
Net financial
items
Unrealised
value changes
from energy
derivatives
Gain/loss from
acquisitions/
divestments of
business
activities
Share of
profit/loss in
equity
accounted
investments
Tax Q3 2018
Net profit
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Q3 segment EBIT underlying
43
NOK million
39 63
-101 -26
147
-671
190 99
-29
301
Industrial
ownership
Market
operations
European flexible
generation
International
power
Wind
power
District
heating
1 442
2 939
Q3 2017
Q3 2018
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Q3 2018 capital expenditure1
Distribution of CAPEX in the quarter:
- 60% new capacity investments
- 39% maintenance/other investments
- 1% shareholdings
New hydropower capacity under
construction in Albania
Wind power developments in Norway
Maintenance primarily within Nordic
hydropower and Norwegian grid
Shareholding investments mainly
related to Silva Green Fuel
44
European
flexible
generation
28%
1 Excluding loans to equity accounted investments
Other includes District heating, Market operations and Other activities
24%
20%
39%
5%
13%
European flexible generation
International power
Wind power
Industrial ownership
Other
NOK
1.6
billion
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Cash flow in Q3
45
NOK million
19 899 19 046
6 182 6 045
Cash reserves 30.09. Cash reserves 30.06. From operations
869
Investing activities Currency
exchange rate
effects
Financing activities
121
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Strong underlying performance in the quarter
Robust financial position
Solid foundation for growth phase
Investment plan with large degree of flexibility
Summary
46
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www.statkraft.com
THANK YOU Investor contacts:
Debt Capital Markets
Funding Manager Stephan Skaane Vice President Tron Ringstad
Phone: +47 905 13 652 Phone: +47 992 93 670
E-mail: [email protected] E-mail:[email protected]