state population forecast: 2010-2040 presentation€¦ · comparison to prior forecast –migration...
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OFMOFFICE OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
November 13, 2019
Office of Financial Management
Forecasting and Research Division
State Population Forecast: 2010–2040
Highlights of November 2019 Update
• Changes to the 2018 forecast assumptions
• Fertilityo The actual number of births in 2018 was 1,360 below our
estimate. 2019 estimated births are 3,725 lower.
o This decrease is consistent with national trends and may be a new normal, not a short-term trend.
o The 2019 update assumes lower long-term fertility rates.
• Migrationo Near-term migration received a moderate upward
adjustment due to improvements in the short-term economic outlook.
• Mortalityo No adjustments to life expectancies were made.
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Comparison to Prior Forecast – Migration
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2019, 90,200
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Actual/Estimated 2018 Forecast 2019 Forecast
Comparison to Prior Forecast - Components of Change
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0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Population Change Births Deaths Natural Increase Net Migration
2018 Forecast 2019 Forecast
+ 97,900
+ 2,300
+ 6,800
- 4,500
+ 102,400
Population Growth
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Washington’s Population Will Surpass 9 Million by 2036
1 M
2 M
3 M
4 M
5 M
6 M
7 M
8 M
9 M
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Washington’s Population is Aging
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827,700
1,281,700
1,766,100
2,016,200
117,300 140,000217,400
397,600
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Pop 65+ Pop 85+
Dependency Ratio
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19701.30
19801.63
19901.65
20001.71
20101.79
20201.57 2030
1.4020401.36
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Ratio of Working Ageto Non-Working Age
Old (75+)
Young Old (65-74)
Young (0-17)
Policy Relevant Population Change: 2019-21
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2.9%
8.9%
8.9%
1.8%
1.7%
2.1%
2.2%
4.3%
1.3%
3.1%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Medical Assistance
Long-Term Care
Medicaid - Elderly
Medicaid - Adults
Medicaid - Children
TANF
Corrections
Juvenile Rehabilitation
Higher Education
K-12 Education
Projected Change
Population growth in specific subgroups will impact major budget areas although the magnitude will
depend on policy choices, economic factors, and social conditions.
Male Ages 18-39
Ages 17-29
General Population
Ages 75+
Ages 0-19
Ages 0-17
Ages 12-17
Ages 5-17
Ages 20-64
Ages 65+
Overall Population Growth
Summary
• The state population will surpass 9M by 2040
• Migration will continue to be the main contributor to state population growth between 2019 and 2040
• Net migration: 1.2M persons• Natural increase: 549K persons
• The state’s elderly population is increasing dramatically• 1 in 5 Washingtonians will be an elderly person by 2030• 2M residents will be 65 or older by 2040. This is 790K more
than today• The 85 and over population will nearly triple between now
and 2040 from 136K to 398K
• In 2040, the state will have 74 dependents for every 100 persons of working age
• 1.9M children (0-17)• 2.0M elderly (65+) • 5.4M persons of working age (18-64)
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Contact:
Mike Mohrman, State Demographer
Office of Financial Management
Forecasting and Research Division
360-902-0602
Rob Kemp, Senior Forecast Analyst
Office of Financial Management
Forecasting and Research Division
360-902-7305
Website:
https://ofm.wa.gov/pop/stfc