state-of-the-art methods for research, planning, and determining the benefits of outdoor recreation

8/8/2019 State-of-the-art methods for research, planning, and determining the benefits of outdoor recreation

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STATE-OF-THE-ART METHODS for research, planning,and determining the benefitsof outdoor recreation

F A G R I C U L T U R E245, B E R K E L EY , C A L I F O R N I A 94701

USDA FOREST SERVICEGENERAL TECHNICALREPORT PSW-20 11977


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S T A T E - O F -T H E - A R T M E T H O D Sfor research, plan, qand determining

the benefits of oudoor recreationGa r y H. E lsner , Comp i l e r

CONTENTS

Improvement o f Demand Studi es as Tool f o r Plann ing OutdoorR e c r e a t i o n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 H . N . v an L i e rFore cast ing th e Demand-Response t o Changes i n Recre at i ona lS i t e Ch a r a c t e r i s t i c s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

P e t e r G r e i qOn th e Use o f Home and S i t e Surveys i n Recrea Research . . 23

M o r d e c h a i S h e c h t e rR e l a t i v e V al ue o f S e l e c t ed O ut do or R e c r ea t i o n A c t i v i t y A re as . 2 7

J o s e p h E . H o f f m a n , J r .A Rec rea t i ona l V i s i t o r T rave l S im u la t i o n Mode l as an A id t oManagement Planning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1

R o b e r t C. L u c a s a n d Mo r d ec h a i S h e c h t e rA S ur ve y o f W i l d l i f e - R e l a t e d R e c r e at i o n i n t h e Te nn es se eV a l l e y R e g i o n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 6

J o h n L . Mechler a n d E . Lawrence KleinMathematica l programming i n the Context o f P lanning f o rMu l t i p l e G o a l s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 6

A . B. RudraI nv es t i ga t i on s on Rec rea t i ona l Forested Areas. . . . . . . . . 6 0

U l r i c h A m e r


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E l s n e r , Ga ry H ., c o m p i l e r .1 97 7. S t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t m e th od s f o r r e s e a r c h , p l a n n i n g , an dd e t e r m i n i n g t h e b e n e f i t s o f o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n . USDA F o r e s tServ. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-20, 62 p . , i l l u s . P a c i f i c S ou th -w e s t F o r e s t a nd R an ge E x p. S t n . , B e r k e l e y , C a l i f .T he se e i g h t p a p e r s w e re o r e s e n t e d a t W o r k i n g P a r t y S 6 .0 1- 3,X V I h W o rld C o ng re ss o f t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l U n i o n o f F o r e s t r yR e s e a r c h O r g a n i z a t i o n s , O s l o , N or w ay , J u n e 2 2, 1 97 6. T o p i c sc o v e r e d i n c l u d e ( a ) i m p r o v i n g s t u d i e s o n dem and f o r o u t d o o rr e c r e a t i o n , ( b ) f o r e c a s t i n g ch an ge s i n number o f v i s i t o r s a f t e ra ch an ge i n r e c r e a t i o n a l qua1 i t y a t a n a r e a , ( c ) c o m p ar in g t h eu se o f s i t e s u rv ey s w i t h h on e i n t e r v i e w s f o r r e c r e a t i o n p l a n n i n g ,( d) m e a s u r i ng t h e r e l a t i v e v a l u e o f s e l e c t e d o u t do o r r e c r e a t i o na c t i v i t y a r e a s , ( e ) m odel i n g ch an ge s i n u s e o r a r e a c o n d i t i o n st o d e t e r m i n e e f f e c t s o n u s e p a t t e r n s and e n c o u n te r s b e tw e env i s i t o r g r o up s, ( f ) s u r v e y in g w i l d l i f e - r e l a t e d r e c r e a t i o n t od e t e r m i n e i m p a ct o n a l o c a l e co no my, ( g ) a p p l y i n g m a t h e m a t i c a lp ro g r am in g i n t h e c o n t e x t o f p l a n n i n g f o r m u l t i p l e g o a l s , and( h) i n v e s t i g a t i n g t h e d eg re e o f a f o r e s t a t i o n p r e f e r r e d f o rd i f f e r e n t b ro a d c a t e g o r i e s o f l a n d u se s i n r e c r e a t i o n a l a r e a s.Oxford: 907.2Re t r i eva l T e r m s : o u td o o r r e c r e a t i o n ; f o r e s t r e c r e a t io n ; r e c r e a t i o na r e a p l a n n i n g .

GARY H. ELSNER i s i n c h a rg e o f l a n d m an ag em e nt a nd l a n d s c a p e p l a n n i n g m e t ho d -o l o g y r e s e a r c h a t t h e P a c i f i c S o u th w es t F o r e s t an d Range E xp e ri m en t S t a t i o n ,F o r e s t S e r v i c e , U.S. D e pa rt me nt o f A g r i c u l t u r e , B e r k el e y, C a l i f o r n i a . He i sc h a i r m a n , W o r k i n g P a r t y S 6 . 0 1- 3 -- M e t ho d o lo g ie s f o r R e s e a rc h , P l a n n i n g a ndD e t e r m i n a t io n o f B e n e f i t s o f O u td oo r R e c r e a ti o n , I n t e r n a t i o n a l U n i on o fF o r e s t r y R e se ar ch O r g a n i z a t i o n s .

T h e A u t h o r sU LR IC H AMMER i s p r o f e s s o r , S c h o o l o f F o r e s t r y , U n i v e r s i t y o f M u n i ch , G erm an y.PETER G R E I G i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e D ep ar tm en t o f F o r e s t r y , O x f o rd U n i v e r s i t y ,G r e a t B r i t a i n , a nd t h e F o r e s t s C o mm is sio n, V i c t o r i a , A u s t r a l i a . JOSEPH E.HOFFMAN, JR. i s a s s i s t a n t p r o f e s s o r , C o l l e g e o f F o r e s t r y , W i l d l i f e , a nd R angeS c i e n c e s , U n i v e r s i t y o f I d a h o , M os co w. E. LAWRENCE K LE IN i s s t a f f f o r e s t e r ,D i v i s i o n o f F o r e s t r y , F i s h e r i e s , and W i l d l i f e De ve lo pm e nt , T en ne ss ee V a l l e yA u t h o r i t y , N o r r i s , T e nn e ss e e. ROBERT C . LUCAS i s r e s e a r c h s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t ,I n t e r m o u n t a i n F o r e s t a nd R an ge E x p e r i m e n t S t a t i o n , F o r e s t S e r v i c e , U .S. D e p a r t -m e n t o f A g r i c u l t u r e , M i s s o u l a , M o n t a na . JOHN L . MECHLER i s s u p e rv i s o r o f w i l d -l i f e management , Land Be twe en The Lake s , Go lden Pond, K en tuc ky . A. B. RUDRA i sS e n i o r L e c t u r e r , S ch oo l o f A g r i c u l t u r e and F o r e s t r y , U n i v e r s i t y o f M el bo ur ne ,A u s t r a l i a . MORDECHAI SHECHTER i s s e n i o r l e c t u r e r , F a c u l t y o f I n d u s t r i a l a ndM an ag em en t E n g i n e e r i n g , T e c h n i o n - - I s r a e l I n s t i t u t e o f T e c h n ol o g y, H a i f a . H. N.VAN L IE R i s a s s o c i a t e p r o f e s s o r , D e p ar tm e n t o f L an d a nd W a te r U se , A g r i c u l t u r a lU n i v e r s i t y , W a ge nin ge n, T he N e t h e rl a n d s .


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P R E F A C E

T he c h a l l e n g e o f p l a n n i n g f o r o u td o orrec rea t i on i s shared by many coun t r i e st h ro u gh o ut t h e w o rl d . T h i s p u b l i c a t i o n o f f e r sa s e l e c t i o n o f s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t p ap er s b y au-t h o r s f r o m s e ve r a l c o u n t r i e s w h i ch a r e a c t i v e -l y d e a l i n g w i t h t h i s c h a ll e ng e . The e i g h tpapers we re prepared f o r the In t e rna t i on a lUn ion o f Fo re s t r y Research Organ izat i ons(IUFRO) XVI World Congress, hel d i n Oslo,Norway, June 20- Jul y 2, 1976. They a r e t heformal d is cus s i on papers fo r IUFRO Work ingPar ty , S6.01-3, Methodo log ies f o r Research,P l a nn i n g, a nd D e te r m i n a t i o n o f B e n e f i t s o fOutdoor Recr eati on, whic h met on June 22.

The lead paper by H. N. Van Li e r set s t hes t ag e f o r t h e p ap er s t h a t f o l l o w b y d es c r i b i n gpas t demand md e l i ng approaches , exp la i n in gth e i r s t r e n g th s an d weaknesses r e l a t i n g t op lan n ing needs, and making severa l suggest io nsf o r imp rovements i nc lud ing the need t o s tudyi n d e p t h t h e s e pa r at e i n f l u e n c e o f t h e t h r e ebas i c system components - -or i g in, des t i na t i on ,and l in kage- -and th e need to adequate l y mode ls u b s t i t u t a b i l i t y . T he n e xt p ap er , by P e t erG re ig , i n v e s t i g a t e s i n some d e t a i l t h e d e s t i -n a t i o n el em en t a nd t h e q u e s t i o n o f s u b s t i t u t a -b i l i t y . The p ap er e x p l ai n s and i l l u s t r a t e sw i t h s imp le numer i cal examp les f o r s k i a reas amodel f o r f o r e c a s t i n g t h e s h o r t - t e r m c ha ng e i nnumber o f v i s i t o r s t o a n a re a w hi c h r e s u l tf r om a c ha ng e i n t h e d e s t i n a t i o n ' s q u a l i t y .

Mordechai Shech ter 's paper compares i nc l o s e d e ta i l two ap pr oa ch es t o e s t i m a t i n g o u t -d o or r e c r e a t i o n us e and b e n e f i t i n f o r m a t i o n .On th e bas i s o f two comprehens i ve s tu d ies o ft h e l a r g e s t n a t i o n a l p a r k i n I s r a e l , he c on -c l ud e s t h a t s i t e s ur ve ys a r e o f t e n more e f f i -c i e n t and cheaper tha n home in te rv ie ws . How-ev er , t h e pape r recommends com preh ensi ve homes u rv e ys a t l o n g e r i n t e r v a l s , s ay e v e r y I 0y ea rs , f o r t h e c o l l e c t i o n o f a d d i t i o n a l d a t aand f o r b road a rea p lann ing.

Joseph E. H o ffm an ' s p ap er i l l u s t r a t e s t h eu se o f two me as ur es o f t h e v a l u e/ c o s t r a t i o i nc om pa ri ng t h e p e r c ei v e d v a l u e w i t h t h e d e v e l -opment and management co st s f o r sev eral a l t e r -n a t i v e o ut do or r e c r e a t i o n a c t i v i t y a re as . H isda ta i nd i ca te tha t a reas w i t h l ow developmentcos t s may have a h ighe r va lue /cos t r a t i o thanno rm a l l y expec ted .

The repor t by Rober t C . Lucas and Morde-cha i Shechter descr ibes an impor tan t and prac-t i c a l mode l f o r s im u la t i ng changes i n manage-m ent p o l i c y o r a c ce ss w i t h i n d i s p e r se d o u td o orr e c r e a t i o n a r ea s . T he model p r e d i c t s t h e e f -

fects upon use pat te rns and encounters be tweenv i s i t o r g ro up s. I t was d ev el op ed t o h e l p e x-p l a i n and p r e d i c t u se p a t t e r n s a n d en c ou n te r sw i t h i n U.S. W i lderness a reas whe re so l i t ud e i so f t e n a p r i me o b j e c t i v e , an d, c o n s eq u e nt l ywhere management would o f t e n 1 i k e t o d e c re as eenco unte rs. However, t h i s same model may beuse fu l i n examin ing a1 te rn at ive managementst ra te gi es i n areas where management may wi sht o i nc rease encoun te rs, e .g ., i n pa rks whe rew i l d l i f e o b s e r v a t i o n s a r e i m p or t a n t a nd wh er esuch an even t may be termed an enco unte r. Theapproach may indeed by appro pr i a t e f o r s imu la-t i n g a w ide range o f management a l te rn a t i v esi n a w i de a r r a y o f d i s p e r s ed o u td o o r r e c r ea -t i on sys tems.

D e te rm i n in g t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b etwe en h u n t -i n g , f i s h i n g , n on co ns um pt iv e w i l d l i f e u s e andt h e l o c a l e conomy i s a d i f f i c u l t b u t w o r t h w h i l et a s k f o r w i l d l i f e - r e l a t e d r e c r e a t i o n p la n ni n g.John L . Mechler and E . Lawrence K l e i n rep o r t ona m a jo r st u dy o f w i l d l i f e i n t he s o ut h ea s te r nU n i t ed S t at e s. T h e i r pa pe r i s i n s t r u c t i v e b o t hi n te rm s o f t h e a re a s t u d i e d a nd i n t er ms o fi l l u s t r a t i n g how a c a r e f u l s t u d y o f g r o ss e x-p e n d i t u r e s may be u s e fu l t o t h e o b j e c t i v e p l a n -i n g o f w i l d l i f e - r e l a t e d r e c r e a t i o n w hi ch m yhave a pos i t i v e monetary impact on a l oc a leconomy.

Long- range p lan n ing f o r adequate outdoorr e c r e a t i o n a re a s i s u s u a l l y do ne i n a c o n te x ti n wh ich r ec r ea t i on va lues mus t be comparedw i t h o t h e r u se s f o r t h e l a n d , s uc h a s , t i m b erp roduc t i on . A . B. Rudra s p e c i f i e s c a r e f u l l ythe use o f goa l p rog raming and exp l a ins i t s ap -p l c a t i o n t o an i l l u s t r a t i v e a rea c o n t a in i n gp o te n t i a l f o r r e c r e a t i o n , t i m b er an d mu1 t i p l euses. Sinc e many o f t he parameters needed f o re i t h e r c o n v en t i o na l l i n e a r p r o g ra m in g o r g o alprograming ar e never known w i t h comple te cer -t a i n t y , h i s p aper a l s o i n c lu d es a b r i e f i n t r o -d u c t i o n t o t h e u s e o f s t o c h a s t i c p ro gr am in gand exp la ins i t s advantages .

The l o ng - ra n ge p l a n n i n g o f a l t e r n a t i v euses o f l andscape un i t s has rece i ved i n t ens i v einv est iga t i ons i n Germany. U l r i c h Ammer 's pa-p er h i g h l i g h t s t h e r e s u l t s o f t h es e st u d i es i nt erm s o f t h e p r e f e r r e d d e gr ee o f a f o r e s t a t i o n .H i s c o n c l us i o n s a pp l y t o f o r e s te d l a nd s i n an daround popu la ted areas and ru r a l a reas. Ther e s u l t s a r e c ompared w i t h t h e c u r r e n t p r o po r -t i o n s o f f o r e s te d l a nd s i n ea ch c ate g o r y andi m p l i c a t i o n s f o r c ha ng es i n p l a n n i n g g o a l s a r edescr ibed .These papers were prepared f o r an


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i n t e r n a t i o n a l c on fe re n ce o f f o r e s t r y o b j e c t i v i t y .resea rchers . But each paper has i t s ownr e le v a nc e t o a s p e c i f i c d e c i s io n ma k in g One goal o f I U F b , s t o i nc r eas e t hes i tu a t i o n and as such may be use fu l t o communicat ion among fo re s t ry researchersre cr ea t i on managers or p lanne rs who are wor ldwide. Th is pub1 ic at on was des igneds e ar c hi n g f o r a way t o g a i n a d d i t i o n a l t o h e l p a c h ie v e t h a t g o a l .

Improvement of Demand Studies as Tool For Planning Outdoor Recreat ionH. N . V a n L ier

A b st r ac t -- P l an n i ng f o r r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s i n f o r e s t e d a re a sr e q u i r e s s o l u t i o n t o t h e sequ ence o f p ro bl em s o f d e t e r m in i n g t h et y pe , l o c a t i o n , c a p a c i t y , and l a y o u t o f f a c i l i t i e s . M od el s h avebeen dev el oped t o f o r ec as t t he demand f o r s pe c i f i c s i t e s , bu tt h ey a r e n o t n e c e s s a r il y a p p l i c a b l e t o o t h e r s i t e s . A g r a v i t ymodel was deve l oped t o ove rcome t h i s l i m i t a t i on . A l t e r na t i v e si n t h e f o r m o f c o mp et in g r e c r e a t i o n s i t e s a r e i n cl u de d i n t h emode l. But even t h i s k in d o f model has l i m i ta t i on s : t he im-p o s s i b i l i t y o f c l e a r l y s e p ar a ti n g t hr e e b a si c f a ct o r s t h a t a f f e c tt he d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t r i p s : o r i g i n o f t r a v e l , d e st i na t io n , and1 i nk ag e ( o r r e a c t i o n t o t h e d i s t a n c e t o be t r a v e l e d ) . I nad d i t i on , t he mean ing o f each fa c t o r has no t ye t been thorough-l y i n v e s t i g at e d .

The demand f o r ou t doo r r ec r ea t i on i s ev i - 1a r ge r ec r ea t i ona l a r eas , s pec i a l p r o - j ec t s,den t . The m a in p r ob l em i s de t e r m i n i ng no t on l y e tc . I t has o f te n been emphasized th a t a c los ewhat s i ze i t w i l l t ak e, b u t a l s o i n what d i r e c - r e l a t i on s h i p ex i s t s bet ween t he c om ponent s1t i o n i t w i l l change. As B i j k e r k (1975) empha- t y pe , a l l o c a t i o n , c a p a c i t y and l a y o u t i n r e c r e -s ized , t h i s demand prob lem a l so covers fo r es t a t i o n p l ann i ng ( v an L i e r and o t he r s l q71 ) .a reas s in ce l l economic and soc ia l changes i n the Nevertheless a sequence-based approach may meetw e st e rn w o r l d i n c r e a se t h e need f o r m u l t i p l e t h e f i r s t r e a ui remen t.l a n d use, l e a d i n g t o t h e f a c t t h a t r e c r e a t i o ni n f o r e s t e d a re as , t h e r e f o r e ? i s an i m p o r ta n t Demand s tud ie s a re a ce n t ra l i ssue i ni s su e as w e l l f ro m t h e p o i n t o f f o r e s t r y p o l i c y these problems. Accord ing t o B i j k er k (1975),as f o r e s t r y p l a n n i n g. I ' The same author pointst o t h e f a c t t h a t ' 'a s a r e s u l t o f c ha ng in g ec o- "adequate p la nni ng o f t he import ant phenomenono f r e c r e a t i o n , good s t a t i s t i c s on p a r t i c i p a t i o nnomic and soc ia l c i rcum stance s-- the demandcreated by the happy few now being created by r a t e , d i s t r i b u t i o n o ve r t yp e s and d i st a n c e ,so c i a l g roups , t he ad d i t i on o f day and weekend f r equenc y and t i m e o f oc c u r r ence i s v i t a l . 'Ir e c r e a t i o n t o t h a t i n v a ca t io n s , t h e g r e a t e rm o b i l i t y o f r e c r ea t i on i s t s and t he awakeni ng o f Demand s t ud i e s a r e needed i n t he f i r s tt h e u r ba n p o p u l a t i o n t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h e a bun- p l a c e f o r t h e d e t e r mi n a t i o n o f t y p e an d amountd an ce i n n a t u r a l r e so u r ce s i s d w i n d l in g - - o f ( a d d i t i o n a l ) f a c i l i t i e s . S i nc e i n many o ffo re s t s a r e becoming an in c r ea s i ng ly impor tan t t hese demand s tud ies models a r e used i n wh ichf e a t u r e i n o u td o o r r e c r e a ti o n . " t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n - e f f e c t o f r e c r e a t i o n i s t s o v erthe area i s t aken in to account by means o fP l an n i ng o f f o r e s t s f o r r e c r e a t i o n o r d i s t an c e f u n c t io n s , t he y a l s o f o rm a b a s i s f o rp l a n n i n g o f r e c r e a t i o n i n f o r e s t a r ea s means t h e a l l o c a t i o n p ro bl em s as w e l l as f o r t h es o l v i n g t he s equenc e o f p rob lems c onc e rn i ng t be cap ac i t y o f p ro jec ts . Layout means t ype , s i zed e t e r m in a t i o n o f t y p e ? l o c a t i o n , c a p a c it y and and m ut ua l l o c a t i o n o f d i f f e r e n t e le me nt s i nl a y o u t o f o ut d o or r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i 1 i t i e s . p r o j e c t s o r ar ea s. I t d et er mi ne s th e a t t r a c t -F a c i l i t i e s i n t h i s c o n te x t mean a l l k i nd s o f i ve ne ss o f t h e t o t a l f a c i l i t y - -a qua1 i t y t h a tp r o v i s i o n s f o r o u t d oo r r e c r e a t i o n ? as f o r i n - a f f e c ts demand. Demand s tu di es are , th er ef or e,s tance smal l p laygr ounds y beaches? wate rs? v i t a l f o r t h e p l an n i ng o f o u t d oo r r e c r e a t i on .


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HOW DID IT AL L START?Older s tud ies re gard ing ou tdoor rec rea-t i on can be d i v i ded i n t o t wo t y pes . The f i r s t

t ype , i n wh ich a sample o f a cer ta in popu la-t l o n has been in ter v iew ed a t home about th e i routdoor rec re at i ona l behav ior , has been car-r i e d o u t i n s ev e ra l c o u n t r i e s i n t h e l a s t 20years . I n fo r mat i on i s ga thered about back-ground var ia ble s (as income, f am i l y s ize , age,sex, prof ess io n, etc . ) on the one hand andnumber o f t r i p s , t y pe o f p r o j e c t s , d i s t anc et r a v e l e d , a c t i v i t i e s pe rf or me d, e t c . o n t h eoth er hand (Cent raal Bureau voor de St a t i s t ie k1966, Outdoor Re cr ea ti on Resource Review Com-miss ion 1962, R i j ksd ie ns t voor he t Nat iona leP lan 1961) . The da ta a r e o f t en , bu t no t a l -ways, used f o r s tud ies r egard ing the in f l u -ence o f background var iab les upon behav ioron ou tdoor rec re a t io n .

i n w hi c h popu l a t i on ( P " ) , d i s t anc e ( SU ) andpopu la t i on den s i t y (PU . Du) a re taken in toaccount . Van L i e r (1969/70) cons t ruc t edmodels fo r in la nd beaches i n the Nether land s:

i n wh ich P = popu la t ion and D = d i s t anc e .One o f t he ma in disadvantages o f t h i st y p e o f model i s th e f a c t t h a t a l t e r n a t i v e(compet ing) pr o j ec ts and areas are not expl i -c i t l y t ak en i n t o acc ount ( one has t o bear i nm i n d' t h at u s i n g v i s i t - umbers means that thei n f l uenc e o f c om pe ti ng p r o j e c t s i s imp1 i c i t l yaccounted fo r ) . Th is ack i n t he mode lingmeans that.. .

1 . I t i s v e ry h ar d t o t r a n s p l a n t a c a l i b r a t e duse-model t o ot he r areas , g i ven the fa c ttha t t he suppor t -s t ua t i on ( t y pes and d i s -t r i b u t i o n o f f a c i l t i e s ) i n most cases i sq u i t e d i f f e r e n t , w h i l e i t a lso m igh t betha t t he "demand1' d i f f e r s .2. The i n f l uenc e o f a t o - be - c rea t ed f a c i l i t yo r t he improvement o f e x i s t i ng ones cannotb e c a l c u l a t e d e x p l i c i t l y .

As ide f rom these l im i ta t ions , mos t mode lsa ls o cannot be t ran sp la n ted i n t ime, s incechanges o f behav io r i n t ime mos t l y a re no ttaken in to account . This , however , i s veryo f t e n t r u e f o r o t he r mode ls a l s o and t he r e f o r ew i l l be i gn or ed i n t h i s pa pe r.For thes e reasons, new model-types were. deve loped i n t he past 10 y ea rs . I t a l l s t a r t -

The second typ e of research can be cal le dp r o j e c t re se ar ch . P eo pl e v i s i t i n g c e r t a i nt y pes o f out doo r r ec r ea t i ona l p r o j ec t s a r ei n te r vi e we d r e g a r di n g t h e i r o r i g i n , t h e d i s -t anc e t r av e l ed , t he a c t i v i t i e s pe rf or med onthe p ro je c t , the expendi tur es , and some back-ground (socio-economic) var ia bl es . Based onthese data, very of te n so-ca l led use-modelsa r e c onst r uc t ed , o f w h ic h t he gene r al f o r m i s :

i n wh ic h t he v i s i t t o a c e r t a i n p r o j e c t f ro m ac e r t a i n o r i g i n depends on t he p opu l a t i on ( p i ) ,the di st an ce ( Oi) and (some) socio-economicv a r i a b l e s (X .. . x n ) .For example M.erewi t z (1966) co ns tr uc te dthe f o l l ow ing model f o r a lake i n t he U.S.A.:

ed w i t h t h e g r a v i t y model approach o f VanDoren (19671, i n wh c h t he a l t e r n a t i v e s a r etaken i n t o account n t he f o l l ow i ng w ay :

where the popu la t ion ( P i ) , t he a t t r a c t i o n i n -dex (AJ ) , t he d is tance between o r i g i n and p ro -j e c t ( D * ~ ) s a l s o t h e combined i n f l u e n c e o fa t t r ac t i on and d i s t anc e o f t he c om pe ti ng p r o -j e c t s ( z J = 1 AJ D a r e ~ a k e n n t o a cc ou nt .SHORTCOMINGS

The shortcomings o f and problems wi th theuse-models have al re ad y been mentioned.In recent years , the approaches wi t hgrav i t y -models a re a lso c r i t i c i z e d by many au-th or s. Niedercorn and Bechdol t (1969) drewd i s t i n c t i ons bet ween an o r i g i n f a c t o r , a des -t i n a t i o n f a c t o r , and a 1 inkage fa c t or as es-sen t ia l pa r t s o f t he model ing. On the bas is

o f t he se d i s t i n c t i o n s , t h e f o l l o w i n g s h o r t -comings can be l is ted:I . The i m po s s i b i l i t y o f s epa r a t i ng and ex-t r a c t i n g t he se t h r e e f a c t o r s v e r y c l e a r l y ,Th is pr obl em has been emphasized manyt imes and by many auth ors . Both s t a t i s t i -c a l l y and c onc ep t ua l l y i t i s i m pos s i b l e t os epa ra te t he i n f l uenc e o f o r i g i n , des t i na -

t ion and I i nkage on v i s i t r a te s (o r num-be r s) o f ou t doo r r ec r ea t i ona l f a c i I i t i e s .S t a t i s t i c a l l y i t i s imposs ib le becausethe va lues g iven to , f o r i ns tance , t he


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a t t r a c t i o n i n d i c e s o f p r o j e c t s o r a r ea sa nd d i s t a n c e p a r a m e t e rs ( as p a r t o f a s pe -c i f c d i s t a n c e f u n c t i o n ) d e p e n d t o a c e r -t a i n d eg re e o n t h e s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y se s~ r o c e d u r e h a t i s u se d ( as f o r i n s t a nc e ,c o v a r i a n c e t e c h n i q u e s , r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y -s e s ) . I n t h i s r es D e c t t h e c r i t e r i o n u se da s a p e a su r e f o r t h e g o od ne ss o f f i t p l a y sa l s o a n i m p o r t a n t r o l e . C o n c e p tu a l l y t h e5 e ?? rs : i sn i s d i f f i c u l t b ec au se i t assumes:ra : t 5 e i n f l u e n c e o f t h e o r i g i n , i . e . ,cPe p u s h - f a c t o r , i n n o way i s r e l a t e d w i t ht h e s u Dp or t s i t u a t i o n , w h i l e f o r t h e sa n e- ea sc n t h e a t t r a c t i o n - i n d e x i s assum ed t ob e u n r e l a t e d t o t h e d e c i s i o n o f p e o p l ew h e th e r t h e y w i l l h av e t h e i r o u t i n g o rn o t .

I n o t h e r w o rd s , i t i s as su ve d t h a t t h ed e c i s i o nm a k i n g p r o c e s s r e g a r d i n g t h e m ak-i n g o f a t r i p , y e s o r n o , b y a n i n d i v i d u a lr un s a s f o l l o w s: ( a ) f i r s t , t h e D er so nd e c i d es t h a t h e d e f i n i t e l y wa n t s t o go o u tno m a t t e r w h a t h e c a n d o o u t d o o r s ; ( b )s ec on d , h e m akes a n i n v e n t o r y o f a l l DOS-s i b i l i t i e s o f t h e p r o j e c t s a n d t h e t r a v e ld i s t a n c e s a n d t h e n c h o o se s w h i c h on e h ew i l l v i s i t , k n o w in g t h e p r o p e r t i e s o f t h ed i f f e r e n t p r o j e c t s ( a t t r a c t i v i t y ) a s a l s ot h e b a r r i e r s ( i . e . , d i s t a n c e and t r a v e l -t i p e c o s t s ) t o o ve rc om e.

T h e re a r e r ea so ns t o b e1 i e v e t h a t t h ed e c i s i o n m a k i n g p r o c e s s s om e ti me s P o r e c rl e s s r u n s l i k e t h i s , b u t i n many ca se sb o t h a s p e c t s a r e i n t e r w o v e n : m any D e r so n sd e c i d e t o make a t r i p b e ca us e t h e y know av e ry n i c e p l a c e t o p e r f o rm a c e r t a i nw an te d a c t i v i t y . N e v e r th e le s s t h e d i s -t i n c t i o n i n o r i g i n - , d e s t i n a t i o n - a n dl i n k a g e - f a c t o r s i s u s e f u l , b e ca us e i t e n -a b l e s o n e t o a p p r o a ch t h e p r o c e ss s ys te m -a t i c a l l y . One h a s , ho w ev er , t o k ee p i nm in d t h a t t h i s d i s t i n c t i o n i s a m eans, n o ta p u r po se i n i t s e l f .2. T h e n e a n i n g o f e a ch o f t h e s e t h r e e f a c t o r sh as u p t o now n o t b ee n i n v e s t i g a t e d t h o r -o u g h ly . I n o t h e r w o rd s , w h at a r e t h eb ac kg ro un d v a r i a b l e s i n t h e p u s h - f a c t o r ,how i s a l i n k a g e p e r c e i v e d by t h e r e c r e a -t i o n i s t s , a n d wh a t p r o p e r t i e s o f t h e p r o -

j e c t s d e t e r m i n e t h e a t t r a c t i v i t y ? Re-c e n t l y , s t u d i e s r e g a r d i n g t h e s e a s p e c tsh av e s t a r t e d t o a p pe a r.RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

R e g ar d in g t h e R e s ea rc h I t s e l fC e s a r i o (1 97 .5 ) r e c e n t l y p r o p o s e d a ne wm eth od t o a n a l y z e o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n t r i p d a ta

( f o r i n s ta n ce , r e g a r d i n g v i s i t s t o f o r e s ta re a s o r p r o j e c t s w h i c h a r e s i t u a t e d i n a n dc l o s e l y r e l a t e d w i t h t h e s e a r e a s ) . I n t h i sm et ho d a t w o - s ta g e ap p ro a c h i s f o l l o w e d . I nt h e f i r s t s t a g e a c o v a r i a n c e t e c h n i q u e i s us edt o e x t r a c t s y s t e m a t i c a l l y o r i g i n f a c t o r s( c a l l e d e m is s iv e n es s ) a nd d e s t i n a t i o n f a c t o r s( c a l l e d a t t r a c t i v e n e s s ) . I n t h e s e c o n d s t a g ea n a n a l y s i s i s c a r r i e d o u t i n o r d e r t o f i n dt h e i n f l u e n c e o f d i f f e r e n t f a c t o r s f o r b o t ht h e e m i ss i ve n es s a nd a t t r a c t i v e n e s s . D i f f e r -e n t t e c h n i q ue s c a n be u se d f o r t h i s , a s f o ri n s t a n c e , m u l t i v a r i a t e a n a l y se s , e t c . F o r t h ee m i ss iv e ne s s s e l e c t e d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f p op u-l a t i o n c e n t e r s c a n b e u se d. I n t h e same w ayt h e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s c a n b e a n a l yz e d b y u s i n gp r o j e c t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s .

I n t h e a p pr oa ch es o f a n a l y z i n g t r i p d i s -t r i b u t i o n r e g a r d in g ou t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n ,K l aa s se n ( 1 97 4) d i s t i n g u i s h e s be tw e en p r o j e c t so r a re a s w h i c h a r e o r i g i n - e x c l u s i v e a nd t h o s ew h i c h a r e d e s t i n a t i o n - e x c l u s i v e . When a l a r g ep a r t ( sa y 7 0 p e rc e n t ) o f t h e r e c r e a t i o n i s t s o na c e r t a i n p r o j e c t o r i g i n a t e f ro m o n e p op u l a-t i o n c e n te r , t h e p r o j e c t h a s o r i g i n - e x c l u s i v i -t y . When t h e m a j o r i t y o f a l l r e c r e a t i o n i s t sf ro m a c e r t a i n p o p u l a t i o n c e n t e r t r a v e l t o o ned e s t i n a t i o n , t h e n t h a t p r o j e c t ha s d e s t i n a t i o n -e x c l u s i v i t y . S t u d i es r e g a r d i n g t h e p ro b l em o fp l a n n i n g a l a r g e n um ber o f s m a l l a r e a s a s o p -p os ed t o a s m a l l num ber o f l a r g e a r e a s a r es t a r t i n g . K la a ss en (1 97 4) fo u n d t h a t t h ef i r s t p l a n n i n g s ys te m ( a l a r g e number o f r a t h -e r s m a l l a r e a s ) m i g h t b e a d v a n ta g e o u s. A c-c o r d i n g t o B i j k e r k ( 19 75 ) t h e same e f f e c tseems t o o c c u r i n t o w n p l a n n i n g , w h e r e " p o l y -n u c l e a t i o n seem s t o k t h e l e a d i n g p r i n c i p l e . "

I t i s o bv i o u s t h a t f u t u r e r e s e a r c h r e -g a r d i n g demand f o r o u t do o r r e c r e a t i o n a l f a c i l -i t i e s s h o u l d a l s o f o c u s on t h e s e a s p e c ts .

R e g a rd i ng Demand Mode 1 i n gM any a t t e m p t s h a v e be e n ma de t o i m p r o v et h e s t r u c t u r e o f b o t h u se -m o de ls a nd g r a v i t y -t y p e m o d e l s . R e g a r d i n g u s e - m o d el s , V a n L i e r( 19 73 ) c o n s t r u c t e d t h e f o l l o w i n g o ne f o r i n -l a n d be ac h r e c r e a t i o n i n t h e N e t h e r l a n d s :

i n w h i ch t h e p o p u l a t i o n ( P ) , t h e v a c a t i o n i s t se l s e w h e r e ( E ) , t h e v a c a t i o n i s t s i n t h e a re a( B ) , t h e d i s t a n c e ( D ~ ) , h e a 1 t e r n a t i v e s i n -s i d e (Ac l ) a nd o u t s i d e ( A c 2 ) t h e o r i g i n , b o t hw e i gh t ed a c c o r d i n g t o r e c r e a t i o n t y p e a nd d i s -t a n c e a r e t a k e n i n t o a c co u n t .


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The fo rmula can be re wr i t t e n as fo l l o ws :

where g = c o m pe t i t i o n a l e f f e c t o f a c e r t a i np r o j e c t o n o t h e r p r o j e c t s , c = c a p a c i t y o ft h a t p r o j e c t a n d r = r e d u c t i o n c o e f f i c i e n tdepending on d is t ance . Thi s shows tha t prop-e r t i e s o f p o p u l a t io n c en t er s and a l t e r n a t i v ep r o j e c t s e x p l i c i t l y a l so a r e ta ke n i n t o

i n w h ic h t h e us e l e v e l ( Y i t ; f o r a r ea i i nyear t i s des c r ibed by s ev er a l v a r i a b l es( x i t ) . I t was f ound t ha t f o r U.S. F o r es tServ ice a reas such var ia b le s as percentage o fa r ea ov e r 7000 f ee t i n e l ev a t i on , r oad con-s t r u c t i o n i n a d j a ce n t Na t i o na l F o r e s t s, t r a v e lt im e, p r e c i p i t a t i o n , p o p u l a t i o n w i t h i n a c e r -t a i n d i s t ance , s i z e o f w il de r nes s a r ea , numbero f l ak es and number o f en t r y po i n t s a r ei m po r t an t .

Regarding gr av i t y - ty pe models, many a t -tempts a r e made fo r improvements and imple-ment at io n. Freund and W i l so n (1974) g i ve anexample o f an imp lementa t ion by es t imat ing ag r av i ty - mo d el t o e x p l a i n r e c r e a t i o n a l t r a v e land p a r t i c i p a t i o n . I n c o n c e n t r a t i n g o n t h eimp lementa t ion method and the na ture o f re -su l t s , t hey found tha t a ma jor t ask was tomake ph ys i ca l l y observed measurements serv e asp r ox i es f o r par am et er s s p ec i f i ed by t he g r av-i t y -m ode l. I n add i t i on , t hey f ound i t neces-sary t o choose a reasonab le se t o f mean ingfu lp r e d i c t o r v a r ia b l e s.

Ac c or d i ng t o Wol f e ( I 9721, a disadvantageo f t he g r avi t y - mode l i s t he t endenc y t o ov er -es t i m a t e t he number o f s ho r t r ec r ea t i o na lt r i p s and t o underes timate the number o f . t helong ones. He th er ef or e cons t ruc ted a so-c a l l e d i n e r t i a - m o d e l :

i n w h i ch t h e same v a r i a b l es ( popu l a t i on P,c a p a c i t y C , and d is t anc e D) a re used bu t t hed i s t a n c e f u n c t i o n i t s e l f ( o r t h e d e s c r i p t i o no f t h e r e a c t i o n o f r e c r e a t i o n i s t s o n d i st a nc e )i s t ransfo rmed. Whether th i s t ype i s moreadequate t o s i mu la te r e a l i t y s t i l l i s t o bep ro ve d f o r d i f f e r e n t f or ms o f o u td o or r e cr e a-t i o n . I t w ou ld be w o r t hw h i l e t o t r y i t o u tf o r f o r e s t a r e a s .T a ki n g a l l t h i n g s t o g e t h e r, i t i s c l e a r

account . The model s imu la tes t r i p s o rn at ed i n a g r a v i t a t i o n a l f i e l d .For t he use o f w i ldernes s area , modelswere cons t ruc ted by McKi l l o p (1975) o f t h ef o l l ow i ng t y pe :

t h a t t h e m od el in g i t s e l f i s so me th in g t o b ef o l l ow e d c r i t i c a l l y . o t h er - s i mu l a t io n pr oc e-dures f o r ou tdoo r re cr ea t i on demand may becomeo p e r a t i o n a l i n th e ne ar f u t u r e .Regard ing the Or ig in Fac tor

An impo rtan t aspe ct o f demand-model in gf o r ou t doo r r ec r ea t i on i s t he ac hi ev em en t o fob t a in ing knowledge on the reasons o f peop let o s eek r ec r ea t i on i n t he ou t doo r s . Manyideas have been form ulat ed, les s r esearch hasbeen done, and almo st no re s u l t s have come up.Up t o now t he r es ea r c h i n t h i s f i e l d hasbeen r e s t r i c t e d t o a n al ys es o f t h e i n f l u e n c eo f SOC io-economic va r i ab l e s upon demand (meas-ured mos t l y as number o f t r i p s ) , a l t houghot he r approaches a l so have been f o l owed. LaPage and Ragain (1974) found t ha t a l ar gechange i n camping (51 per cent o f former camp-ers were e i t he r camping les s o r had dropped

out o f t he camping marke t ) was re la te d t o achange i n t h e s t y l e o f c amp in g i t s e l f , and t ochanges i n t h e f a m i l y c y c l e , a l t h o u g h t h e l a t -t e r gave no t i n a c ons i s t en t pa t t e r n . Thesef i n d i n g s p o i n t t o t h e p ro bl em o f t h e s u b s t i -t u t a b i l i t y wh ich has been de f ined by Hendeeand Burge (1974) as " th e inte rcha ngea bi I i t y o fr e cr e at i on a c t i v i t i e s i n s a t i s f y i n g p a r t i c i -pants ' mot ives, needs, wishes and des i res . ' 'I t i s q u i t e ob v io u s t h a t r e s ea r ch , e s p e c i a l l ydea l i ng w i t h t h i s as pec t o f t he demand,needed .How var iou s socio-economic f ac to rs havet h e i r i n f l uenc e upon ou t doo r r ec r e a t i o n par -

t i c i p a t i o n i s s hown by d i f f e r e n t r e se a rc h er s .Recent l y McEvoy (1974) expe r ime nta l l y in ve s t i -g ate d t h e i n fl u en c e o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h ework ing t ime. From th e research i t appearedtha t " subs t an t i a l i nc reases i n the consumpt iono f o ut do or r e c r ea t i o n w i l l r e s u l t i f t h e f o u r -day workweek i s adopted by a s i g n i f i c an t seg-ment o f t he work fo rce . ' ' For p la nn in g ou tdoorr e cr e at i on t h e f u t u r e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f l e i s u r et i m e w i l l be v e r y i m po r t an t. Ac c or d i ng t oB i j kerk (1975) i t i s impor tan t t o know whether


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'we are moving towards les s work ing hours pe rday, le ss worki-ng days per week, le ss worki ngweeks pe r year o r les s work ing years i n a1 f e - t i m e . "I n th e approach of Cesar io (1975), th ed ema nd-pa rt o f t h e t r i p - d i s t r i b u t i o n can be

Th is f or mul at io n shows t ha t t he demand (ai)depends on househol d-cate gories (hh cat) whichwere based on income and fa mi ly c yc le as a ls oon the t yp e o f house (won) , the possess ion o fa ca r (mob) and the le ve l o f u rban iza t io n (u)o f t he o r i g i n .Regard inq the L i nkage Factor

The p ro b le m o f t h e re a c t i o n o f p e o p le t od i s t a n c e (o r o n f a c t o r s d e r i ve d f ro m d i s t a n ce ,such as t r av e l - t ime o r cos ts ) has been tac k le dby many inv es t iga t o rs . Wo l fe (1972) i n i t i a t e da new approach by us ing a d i f fe re n t rea c t i on -t o -d i s t a n ce - f u n c t i o n b ased o n t h e so -ca l l e di n e r t i a o f s t a r t i n g up and on t h e i n e r t i a o fmovement. The s t a r t i ng up in e r t i a i s causedby the f a c t th at "a gr eat many people may notw i sh t o make a t r i p o f a n y l e n g t h , h ow eversh o r t ," w h i l e t h e i n e r t i a o f movement i scaused by the fa c t th a t "among the m in or i t y o fp e op l e who i n d u l g e i n le n g t hy t r i p s , a s t i l ls m al l er m i n o r i t y f i n d s t r a v e l i t s e l f so s ti mu -l a t i n g t h a t t h e f a r t h e r t h ey go, t h e f ar t h e rthey want t o go."

Th is ha? 'eaman (1974) t o anal yze th er e a c t i o n t o as a f u n c t i o n o f d i s t a nc e .On t h e b as i s n a l y s i s o f f i v e g r a v i t y -f u n c t i o n s , h e J t h a t t h e r e a r e c as ed i nw h ich (a) e ach new m i l e t o b e t ra ve l e d o f f e r smore res is t anc e than the la s t ; (b ) each newm i l e t o b e t r a v e le d o f f e r s l e s s r e s i s t a n cethan the l as t ; and (c ) each new mi le t o bet ra ve l e d has a co n s t a n t re s i s t a n ce .The se re s u l t s su gg es t t h a t t h e re a c t i o nt o d i s t a n c e i s h a r d t o u n d er s ta nd , e s p e c i a l l ybecause i t i s a l s o r e l a te d t o t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n

o f o ut do or r e cr e at i on f a c i l i t i e s i t s e l f . T h i sl a s t aspect has been st re sse d by OIRourke(1974). who says i t i s "a f u n c t i o n o f t h es t r u c t u r e o f o p p o r t u n i t i e s a v a i l a b l e t o t h er e c r e a t i o n i s t s . "From the fo rego ing i t can be concludedt h a t t h i s p a r t o f t h e demand has t o be i n ve s -t i ga te d thoroug hly. One has, however, t o keepi n mind t h a t i t w i l l be v e r y c om p li c at e d s i n c et h e a v a i l a b i l i t y and d i s t r i b u t i o n o f o ppo rtu -

ana lyzed more tho rough ly . I n h i s researchon ly p op ul at io n and income were accounted fo r ,bu t i t i s necessary and i t shou ld be poss ib let o e nl ar ge t h e e f f o r t s i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n .L i n t sen (1975) c onst ruc ted a speci a l demandf u n c ti o n , i n wh ic h t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n e f f e c t wasnot included, however:

n i t i e s p l ay s a n i m po r ta n t r o l e . I s t h e r oa d af a c t o r o n i t s own o r i s i t a p a r t o f t h e s i t e ?I n a d d i t i o n , i n many c as es t h e t r a v e l i t s e l fcan be en joya ble . Th i s probably causes th ei n e r t i a o f movement ( ~ o l f e 972).Regard ing the Des t ina t ion Fac to r

The l ead ing p rob lem i n ana lyz ing the des-t i n a t i o n i s wh et he r i t can be analyzed ob jec-t i v e l y ( i e. , b ased o n h a rd f a c t s such a sa crea ge o f p a rk i n g a rea s , p l a y in g f i e l d s ,e tc . ) o r whe ther i t has t o be analyzed sub-j e c t i v e l y ( i . e . , u s i n g p e r c ep t i o n o f t h e a re ab y t h e r e c r e a t i o n i s t s ) a s w e l l .

I n th e approach o f Cesar i o (1975) on1 yob je ct iv e var ia b l es were used, such as numbero f ac res , number o f camping un i t s , leng th o fbeach, etc.An i n ve n t o ry o f ca m pin g-s it e s i n t h eNetherl ands by Uke lens tam (1974) showed t h att h e p re f e re nce s o f campers w i t h re g a rd t o t h el o c a t i o n o f t h e s i t e s a r e c l o s e l y r e l a t e d w i t hf o re s t s and sea co as t ( f i g . 1 ) . The a t t r a c t i v -i t y ( o r t h e a t t r a c t i v i n e s s ) i n i t s essence i smore sub jec t iv e , however, i n h i s "ana lys is o f

v i s i t s t o ou td oo r r e c r ea t io n s i t e s i n t h ev i c i n i t y o f a l a r g e town i n t h e N et he rl an ds( ~ i n d o v e n )I1 L in tsen (1975) found tha t a t t ra c -t i v i t y d e ter mi ne d by c a l i b r a t i o n o f g r a v i t y -models per socio-economic groups shows larged i f f e r e n ce s ( t a b le 1 ) . The f i n d in g s showt h a t ( a) t h e r an k in g o f t h e a re as ( f i r s t ,second , e tc . ) d i f f e r s f rom househo ld ca tegoryt o household categor y; and (b) t he var ian cyo f t h e a t t r a c t i v i t y - i n d i c e s p e r a re a among t h ehouseho ld ca tegor ies i s la rge .From t h i s i t can be concluded t ha t th ea t t r a c t i v i t y o f s i t e s depends n o t o n l y on t h es i t e - p r o p e r t i e s b u t a l s o on t h e d i f f e r e n t i a -t i o n i n demand.Th is shows tha t s tud ies regard ing thep e r c e pt i o n o f e s p e c i a l l y w i ld e r n e ss and f o r -es t r y a reas shou ld be encouraged i n the nearf u tu r e. The f i r s t steps on t h i s d i f f i c u l tpa th ha ve been made, however.


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Figure I --Campers i n the Nether lands pre f er re d camping s i te s i n fo re s tso r a long th e seacoast , according t o an i nve ntor y made byIjekenstam (1974).

'able 1- The a t t r a c t i v i t y - i nd i c e s o f 12 r ec r ea t i on a reas f o r 12 househo ldca teg ori es (hhcat) depending on income and fa mi ly cyc le .

hhcatarea4 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1 .070 .H O .053 .069 .074 .036 .049 .I12 .067 -06 4 -098 -0472 .026 .060 .028 .033 -04 2 .069 .049 .067 .041 .027 .049 -0 55

Source: Li nt se n 1975


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1

Tuan (1974) s tu d ied environme ntal percep-t i o n , a t t i t u de s , and v a l ues, wh i l e P e te r son( 1974) s tud i ed t he pe r c ep t i on o f w i l de r nes samong the d i f f e re n t groups about some a c t i v i -t i e s tha t were approved o f (e .g ., padd lecanoe ing and f i sh in g) and o th ers t ha t wered isapproved. D i f fe r enc es were found i n thepercep t ion by re c r ea t i on i s ts and managers .Car l s ( 1974 ) r epo r ted t ha t t he pe r c e p t i on o fc e r t a i n l an ds ca pe s i s n e g a t i v e l y c o r r e l a t e dw i th t he "ar ea o f peop l e and th e a rea o fh i gh dev el opmen t, " po s i t i v e l y c o r r e l a tedw i t h "a re a o f s tr ea m, o f w a t e r f a l l and o flake."

The r es ea r c h on t he des t i na t i on f a c to rhas been done i n two ways: (a) stu dy ing th ep r o p e r t i e s ( ha rd f a c t s ) o f t h e ar ea and r e l a t -i ng t hese to t he a t t r a c t i v ene s s ; and ( b)s t u d y i n g t h e p e rc e pt i o n b y r e c r e a t i o n i s t s o fthe area.An approach i nc lu di ng per cept io n and harafac t s i s needed. The r ec e n t l y pub l i s hed r e -

p o rt of th e Committee on Assessment o f Demandfo r Outdoor Recreat ion Resources (1975) shouldb e me nt io ne d. I n t h i s r e p o r t a t t e n t i o n i spa id t o th e p la nn i ng and so c ia l and economicpo l i c y o f ou tdoo r r ec r ea t i o n and t o m ethods o fana lyz i ng demand. Spec ia l top i cs are thedemand f o r a l t e rn at i v e types , the demand fo rs i t e - s p e c i f i c o u td o o r r e c r e a t i o n re so ur ce s,a s o ci o -p s yc h ol o gi c al d e f i n i t i o n o f r ec re a -t i o n demand, and th e e s t ima t i on and use o fmodels.

CONCLUSIONSThe fo l l o w i n g gene ra l c onc l us i onsreg ard ing the demand f o r outdoor recvea-t i o n i n f o r e s t s c a n be d ra wn :

Demand studies are a v t a1 p a r t o fp l a n n i n g o u t d o o r r e c r e a t i o n f a c l i t i e s i ngeneral . Th i s a l so accounts fo t h e t y p e o ff a c i l t i e s and p r o j e c t s wh ic h a e predomi-n a n t l y s i t u a t e d i n f o r e s t a re as o r w hi ch a r efor med by t h e s pec i a l l ay ou t o f t h e f o r e s ti t s e l f .2. Res earc h r ega r d i ng t he s ub s t i t u ta -o i l i t y o f t h e demand s hou ld be encour aged .

I n s i gh t i n t h i s m at t e r opens t h e p o s s i b i l i t yf o r p l a n n er s t o a d j u s t t h e p l an s i n a b e t t e rway t o t h e n a t u r a l s u t a b i l i t y o f f o r e s t a re asf o r o u t do o r r e c r e at i o n .3 . Demand studies based on model-approaches have been per formed i n severalways. Improvements were made i n re ce ntyears. Never the less th e type o f model tos im ul at e t r i p d i s t r i b u t i o n i n p a r t i c u l art o f o r e s t a r e as s ho ul d b e o b j e c t o f f u r t h e rs tud i es .

4. A s e p a ra t i o n o f o r i g i n - , l i n k ag e -and de s t i na t i on - f ac to rs i n demand-models i sv e r y o f t e n used. B oth t he s tudy o f t he wayi n w hi ch t h e se f a c t o r s s ho u ld be d i s t i n -gui shed and th e ana l y s i s o f t hes e th r eebas ic f ac to rs on ly have been s tar te d, however .More r es ea r c h i s needed, es pec i a l l y f o r f o r e s ta reas , g i v en t he f ac t t h a t up t o now no tenough i s known about th e fac to rs (va r iab les )d e t e r mi n i n g t h e i r a t t r a c t i v e n e s s . P e r ce p t i o nresearch shou ld be ment ioned i n th i s regard .

5. F or t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h e o r i g i n - f a c t o r ,s tud ies regard i ng background var ia b l es shou ldbe pe rfor med. The r ea c t i o n o f r ec r ea t i on i s t so n d i s t a n c e t o f o r e s t a r e as i s a s p ec i a l p ro b-lem s inc e not hin g i s known about t he percep-t i o n o f t r a v e l d is ta nc e as r e l a te d t o t h e p r o-posed v i s i t t o f o r e s t a re as . More and d e t a i l -ed s t ud ies on t h i s p ar t o f th e dernand-model ingare needed.Fi na l l y , some remarks about p lan ning i nfo r e s t r y and r ec r ea t i o n by B i j k e r k ( 1975 ) a r e

app r op r i a te :1 . A more syst emat ic approach, ac co rd ingthe sequence a1 lo ca t on-capac i t y - l ayou t , t odetermine the requ i rements o f new rec r ea t io nf a c i l i t i e s i n f o re s ts , w i l l improve t h e e f f e c -t i v enes s o f t he p l ans, as we l l as l ower t hed i f f i c u l t i e s o f a c q u ir i n g funds f o r o u td oo rr e c r e a t i o n .2. A c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f f o r e s t s a cc or di ngt o r e c r ea t i o n al p o t e n t i a l w i 1 1 p r ov e t o be o fg r ea t b ene f i t t o p l ann i ng an i ncr eas ed r ec r ea -t i o n a l u se . Re se ar ch o n t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f

mak ing such c lass i f i ca t i ons shou ld be encour -aged.3 . Data o n r ec r e a t io n a l a c t i v i t i e sshould be inc lu ded i n th e census, as such dat aare becoming indispensable for adequate plan-n in g o f f a c i l i t i e s f o r o ut do or r e c r ea t io n .

VERBESSERUNG DER FRAGEUNTERSUCHUNGENFUR DIE PLANUNG VON FREILUFTERHOLUNG

ZusammenfassungDie Frage nach Fr e i l u f te rh o l un g, besondersi n W al dgeb ie te , i s t k l a r . Zuk Un ft i ge A ender-ungen dieser Fragen mi t Bezug auf Zahl undRichtung, missen unte rsu cht werden wenn es s ic hurn d i e Planung von Anlagen hSn del t. Die LUsunge i ne r Re ihe Prob leme mi t Bezug auf Fes ts te l l un gv on A r t , S te l l e , K apazi tS t und E i n r i c h tun g v on

Fre i lu f te rho lungsan lagen i s t no twendig . E ineBeschreibung 1st qegeben worden von 'Gebrauchs-


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m o d e l l e ' d i e z u e r s t e n t w i c k e l t w o rd e n s i n d urnd i e F r a g e n f U r b e s t i m m te S t e l l e n z u b e-s c h r e i b e n , g l e i c h w i e d i e N a c h t e i l e d i e s e rM o de l l e . B e s o nd e rs b e zU g l i c h d i e U nm ffg l i c h k e i td i e s e f U r a n d e r e G e ge nd en z u b e n i l t z e n . Umd i e s e N a c h t e i l e z u Ub e r w i nd e n 1 s t d as n a c h s t eM o d e l ! , d a s ' S c h w e r p u n k t m o d e l l l e n t w i c k e l tw o rd e n . I n d i e s e m M o d e l l e w e r de n A l t e r -n a t i e v e n w i e k o n k u r r i e r e n d e S t e l l e n o d e rG eg en de n p l a n m a s s i g e i n g e b a u t . D i e N a c h t e i l ed i e s e s M o d e l l e s s i n d z w e i f a l t i q :- - d i e U n m o g l i c h k e i t d r e i G r u n d l aq e n d i e s e sM o d e l l e s , n S m l i c h U r s p r u n g , B e s ti m m un g u n dV e r b i n d u n g , d e u t l i c h z u s e p a r i e r e n u nd zue x t r a h i e r e n . D i e S e p a r a t i o n d e r E i n f l u s sd i e s e r d r e i G r u n d la g e n a u f F a h r t v e r t e i l u n g i s ts t a t i s t i s c h s ow oh l w i e k o n z e p t i s c h s ch we rd u r c h z u f u h r e n- - d i e B e d eu tu n q j e n e r d r e i G r un d la g en i s tn i c h t e i n q eh e nd q e c r u f t w o r de n . E i n s i c h t i nd e n H i n t e r g r u n d v a r i a b e l e n v o n ' P u s h ' ( U r sp r u n g )u n d ' P u l l ( B e st im m u n q ) s o wo h l w i e i n d e rA b s t a n d p er z e p t i o n ( v e r b i n d u n g ) f e h l e n .

I n Rahmen n e u e r e E n t w i c k l u n q e n s i n d V o r -s c h l a g e a em ac ht w o r de n u nd U n t e r s u c h u n ~ e nd u r c h g e f u h r t w o r d en u n d i e s e N a c h t e i l e z uu b e r w i n d e n . N eu e A n a l y s e n n-i t S ez ug a u f F a h r t -v e r t e i l u n g e n e b en so w i e a u f H i n t e r g r u n d e d e rU r s p r u n g u n d B e st im m un g s i n d f e r t i g o d e r w e r de ng e ma c ht . E i n i g e B e i s o i e l e n s i n d ge ge be nw o r d e n .

H i n z u s i n d e i n i g e S c h lu s s be m e rk u n ge n g e-m a ch t w o r de n . F r a g e u n te r s u c h u ng e n s o l l e n i nd e r Z u k u n f t d u r c h q e f u h r t w e r d e n . D as P r o b le md e r S u b s t i t u t i o n s f a h i g k e i t d e r F r aq e m u s s te nb e i n o c h k om n en de U n t e r s u c h u n g e n n e h r b e n a ch -d r u c k t w er d en . D i e s g i l t a u c h f i r d i e A n a ly s e nd e r F a h r t v e r t e i l u n g e n , d i e S e p a r a t i o n i n U r -s p r u n g , V e r b i n d u n g u n d B e s t i m m u n g s f a k t o r e n u n dd i e m ehr d e t a i 11 i e r t e n A na l y s e n d i e s e rF a k t o r e n .

L I A M E L I O R A T I O N D E S ETUDES D E LA D EM AN D ECOMME MOYEN DE PLANIFICATION DE LARECREATION EN PL EI N AIR

La r e c r e a t i o n e n p l e i n a i r , p l u s p a r t i c u -1 i S r em e n t s o us f o r g t , e s t t r S s re c h e r c h e e . Desm o d i f i c a t i o n s f u t u r e s d e l a dem ande , q u a n t 2 l aq u a n t i t e e t I f o r i e n t a t i o n , d e v r o n t S t r e e t u -d i e e s q u a nd i 1 s ' a g i t d u p l a n n i n g d e s fa -c i l i t e s . L a s o l u t i o n d e s p ro b l & m e s r e l a t i f s 2l a d e t e r m i n a t i o n p r o p r e m e n t d i t e 2 l a l o c a t i o n ,5 l a c a p a c i t e e t 2 I ' am e n ag e m en t d e s p r o j e t s e np l e i n a i r e s t d ' u n e i m p o r t a n c e m a je u re .

U ne d e s c r i p t i o n d e s ' m o d S l e s d ' u t i l i-s a t i o n ' q u i a v a i e n t 6 t e d 6 ve lo p p6 s i n i t i a l e m e n ta ux f i n s d e d e c r i r e l a de m and e p o u r d es s i t e sp r e c i s e s , a 6 t 6 do n ne e a u s s i q u e d e s de s -a v a n t a g es d e c e s m o d S le s e n c e q u i c o n c e r n eI ' i m p o s s i b i l i t e d e I e s u t i l i s e r p o u r d ' a u t r e sr e g o n s .

Un d e u x i h e m o de le , ' d u t y p e g r a v i t 6 ' ,e t a i t c o n s t r u i t p o u r s u rm o n t e r c es d e sa v an ta g esp a r 1 ' i n c l u s i o n e x p l i c i t e d ' a l e r n a t i v e s( d ' a u t r e s s i t e s o u r e g i o n s ) d an s l e m o d g l e.L e s l i m i t e s d e c e d e u x i h e t y p e s o n t :- - L 1 i m p o s s i b i 1 i t 6 d e s 6 p a r e r c l a i r e m e n t l e st r o i s f a c t e u r s d e b a se : o r i g i n e e t d e s t i n a t i o nd u v o y a g e u r e t a c c e s s i b i l i t 6 d u s i t e . A 12f o i s s u r l e p l a n d e c o n c e p t i o n e t d e s t a t i s -t i q u e l a d e s t i l l a t i o n d e l ' i n f l u e n c e d e c ha cu nd e c e s t r o i s f a c t e u r s s u r I ' u t i l i s a t i o n d e sf a c i l i t e s e s t d i f f i c i l e .- - La s i g n i f i c a t i o n d e c ha cu n d es f a c t e u r s n ' ao as 4 t 6 r e c h e r c h g e p r o f on d 6 m e nt e t n o t r e com -p r e h e n s i o n r e s t e i n s u f f i s a n t e .

L o r s d e s d 4 v el o pp e m e nt s p l u s r e c e n t s d esp r o p o s i t i o n s o n t e t e f o r m u l 6 e s e t d e s e t u d e so n t 4 t 6 e n ta me s p ou r f a i r e f a c e c e s d e u xl i m i t e s . Des a n a ly s e s n o u ve au x r e l a t i f s 2 l ad i s t r i b u t i o n d es v oy ag es a i n s i q u' ; l a d e s t i n a -t i o n e t 2 l l o r i g i n e d es v o y ag e u rs o n t 6 t 6 f a i t so u s o n t e n v o i e d e r e a l i s a t i o n . Q u e l qu e se x am p le s o n t 4 t e d o n n e s .

A l a f i n i l a 4 t 6 r e m a r q u e q u e d e s e t u d e sd e l a de ma nd e s e r o n t n e c es s a i r e d an s 1 ' a v e n i re t q u e I e p r o b l S m e d ' u n e s u b s t i t u t i o n p o s s i b l ed e c e t t e dem ande de v -a r e c e v o i r p l u s d 1 a t t e n -t i o n . C e c i e s t v a l a b l e a u s s i b i e n p o ur 1 esa n a ly s e s de d i s t r i b u t i o n d e vo ya ge s , p o u r l as e p a r a t i o n d es t r o i s f a c t e u r s o r i g i n e , a c c e s s i -b i l i t e e t d e s t i n a t i o n q ue p ou r l ' a n a l y s e d e c e sg ro up es d e f a c t e u r s d e f a c o n p l u s d e t a i l l e e .

LITERATURE C ITEDBeaman, J .

1 97 4. D i s t a n c e a nd t h e ' r e a c t i o n ' t o d i s -t a n c e a s a f u n c t i o n o f d i s t a n c e . J . L e i s .R e s . 6 ( 3 ) : 2 2 0 - 2 3 1 .

B i j k e r k , C .1 97 5. R e c r e a t i o n v a l u e s o f f o r e s t s a n dp a r k s . P h i l . Trans . R . Soc. Lond. B .2 7 1 : 1 7 9 - 1 9 8 .

C a r l s , E. G .1 9 7 4 . T h e e f f e c t s o f p e o p l e a nd m a n- in du ce dc o n d i t i o n s o n p r e fe r e n c e s f o r o u t d o o rr e c r e a t i o n l an d sc a pe s . J. L e i s . R e s .

6 ( 2 ) : 1 13- 1 24 .


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Cesar io , F. J.1975. A new method f o r ana ly zi ng outd oorr e c r e at i o n t r i p d at a. J. L e i s . R e s . 7 ( 3 ) :200-21 5.

raa l Bureau voor de S t a t i s t ie k1966. V r i j e t i j d s b e s t e d i n g i n N ed er la nd 1962-1963. Deel 8: Een samenvattend ov er zi ch tKarakte r i s t eke pat ronen. De Haan,Hilver sum. 57 p.aa l Bureau voor de S t a t i s t ie k1971. De Nederlandse Bo ss ta t i s t i ek , 1964-1968. St aa ts ui tg . Den Haag. 67 p.

Assessment o f Demand f o r Outdoor1975. Assess ing demand f o r outd oor re cre a-t i o n. Nat. Acad. Sci. , Washington, D . C .124 p .

R . J., and R . R . Wilson9 7 4 . An examp le o f a g r a v i t y model t o e s t i -ma te r e c r e a t i o n t r a v e l . J. L e i s . R e s .6(3) :24 l -256.J. C . , and R . J. Burdge1974. T he s u b s t i t u t a b i l i t y c on ce pt : I m p l i -ca t i o n f o r re c re a t i o n re se a rch a nd manage-ment. J. L e i s . R e s . 6(2):157-162.

G. F. P.1974. Aan ta l en sp r e id ing van d iv e rs e t ypenr e c r e a t i e v e r b l i j v e n i n N ed er la nd . R e c r .voorz. 6( 4) : 136-143.

1974. Pre lude op een re cr ea t i ev e kostenbatenana lyse . R e c r . V o o r z . 3(3 ) :96-102.W. F., and D . P. Ragain

1974. Fami ly camping t rends--an e i gh t yearpanel s tudy. J. L e i s . R e s . 6(2):101-112.W.1975. Een ana ly se van he t bezoek aan open-l u ch t re c re a t i e g e b ie d e n i n de a g glo m e rat i eEindhoven. T . H. Eind hove n. 144 p.

cEvoy, I l l , J .1974. Hours o f work and th e demand fo r ou t-d o o r re c re a t i o n . J. L e i s . R e s . 6(2 ) :125-139.

W.1975. Wi lde rness use i n Ca l i fo rn ia : a quan-t i t a t i v e a na ly si s . J. L e i s . R e s . 7 ( 3 ) :165-178.

1966. R e c re a t i o n a l b e n e f i t s o f w a t e r re -

source development. W a t e r R e s o u r c e s R e s .2 (4) :625-640.

Nied erc orn , J. H., and B. V . Bechdo l t , J r .1969. An e co no mic d e r i va t i o n o f t h e ' g r a v i t yl aw ' o f s p a t i a l i n t e r a c t i o n . J. Re g . S c i .9 (2) :273-282.O'Rourke, B.1974. Trave l i n the rec rea t io na l exper ience--a l i t e r a t u r e r ev ie w. J. L e i s . R e s .6(2 ): 140-156.Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission1962. Nat i onal re cr ea t i on survey. Studyr e p o r t 19. Washington, D.C. 61 p.Peterson, G . L.

1974. A compar ison o f the sen t imen ts andpercept ions o f w i l der ness managers andcanoests i n the boundary water canoe area.J. L e i s R e s . 6(3 ) :194-206.

R i j k sd ie n s t vo o r h e t N a t i o n a le P la n1961. Mensen op zondag. Publ . I 4 St aa ts -dr ukk er i ' s Gravenhage. 166 p.Tuan Yi-Fu1974. Top ophi l ia : a study o f envi ronmenta lpe rcep t ion , a t t i t u de s , and va lues . Pren-t i c e Ha l l , Englewood C l i f f s , N.J. 260 p.Van Doren, C . S .1967. An in te ra c t io n t r av e l model fo r p ro -j ec t i ng a t tendance o f campers a t M ich iganS t a t e P a rks : a s t u d y i n re c re a t i o n a l ge o-

graphy. Ph.D. Thesis, Michi gan St at eU n i v . 2 6 4 p .Van L ier , H. N.1969/70. Capa ci t e i t sbe rek eni ng voor n ieuw t es t ich ten s t randbaden . V e r k e e r s t e c h n i e k20(12) en 21 ( I ) , b i j voe gse l R e c r . V o o r z .12:186-190 en 1 :2-6.Van L i e r , H. N.1973. De te rm ina t ion o f p lann ing cap ac i t y andl a yo u t c r i t e r i a o f o ut do or r e c r e a t i o n pr o -j e c t s . Pudoc Wageningen. Ag r ic . Res.Repo rts 795, 156 p .

L i e r , H. N., J . G . Bakker , and H. Bergman971. Onderzoek te n behoeve van op enl uc ht -r e c r e a t i e v e v o or z i en i ng e n b i j d e i n -r i c h t i n g van h e t p l a t t e l a n d . Cult. T e c h n .T i j d s c h r . 11:97-128.

f e , R . I .972. The in er t i a model . J. L e i s . R e s .^(I) :73-76.


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F o r e c a s t i n g the D em a n d - R e s p o n s e t oC h a n g e s i n R e c r e a t i o n a l S i t e Character is t ics

1P e t e r G r e i g

A b s t r a c t ~ A ew method i s p re se nt ed f o r f o r e c a s t i n g t h esh o r t - t e rm ch ange i n numbers o f v i s i t o r s a t a n a re a, a f t e r somechange i n t h e r e c r e a t i o n al q u a l i t y th e r e. A g ro up o f r e c r e a t i o nareas may be sub s t i tu t es f o r t he a rea o f concern . Recr ea t i on is tsd ec i de on t r i p s t o p a r t i c u l a r a re as , d ep en di ng o n t h e r e l a t i v ec o s t s and q u a l i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f an a re a, and on t h e i r p a r t i c -u l a r pr ef er en ce s f o r t h o s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . B ot h t h e c h a r a c t e r i s -t i c s a s we11 a s t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p re fe re nce s i n t h e co mm un it y,can be descr ibed mathemat ica l l y and a model o f re c r ea t i on is ts 'cho ices deve loped. Us ing observed da ta on cos ts , ch ar ac te r i s t i c s ,and numbers o f v i s i t s a t the a reas i n the g roup, the model can beused to fo re cas t new cho ices a f te r some change i n the char ac t e r is -t i c s o f a n a re a. S im ple n um er i ca l examples i l l u s t r a t e a p p l i ca t i o no f the model .I n f o r e s t r y p r a c t i c e , many o p e r a t i o n s i n - The o t h e r c l a ss i s co ncerne d w i t h e s t i -v o l v e a l t e r a t i o n s t o t h e f o r e s t l an ds ca pe . m at i ng , b y s t a t i s t i ca l m et ho ds , t h e re l a t i o n -

' These a l t e r a t i o n s o f t e n a f f e c t t h e r e c r e at i o n - sh ip b e t w e e n v i s i t o r n u m b e rs a t r e c re a t i o na l q u a l i t y o f t h e a re a co ncerne d- -e ve n i f rec - a rea s , and t h e va r i o u s ch a ra c t e r i s t i c s o fr e a t i o n i s o n l y one o f t h e m u l t i p l e u ses i n - t h o se a re as . U su a l l y , a cau sal r e l a t i o n s h ipvo lved . In eva lua t i ng whether o r no t to make i s i m pl i ed , o n t h e s u pp o s it i o n t h a t v i s i t o r st h e a1 t e r a t i o n , a n e sse n t i a l p i e ce o f i n fo rma - ch o o se a cco rd in g t o t h e i r p re f e re n ce s f o rt i o n w i l l b e a n e s t i m a t e o f t h e change, i f ch a ra c t e r i s t i c s . Thus , t h e se co nd c l a s s o fa ny , i n t h e number o f v i s i t o r s t o t h e ar e a. methods may be sa id t o depend on re vea le dpreferences . Most ly , t he methods have in-Th is paper desc ri bes a new method o f vo l ved t h e u se o f m u l t i p l e re g re ss io n a n a l ys i sfo re ca st in g th e change i n numbers o f v i s i t o r s (Johnston and Elsner 1972, L ime 1971, Seneca(and t h e i r o r ig in s ) a f t e r a sp ec i f i c change i n and C i cc he t t i 1969, Sha fer and Thompson 1968,t h e r e c r e a t i o n al q u a l i t y o f a f o r e s t o r a ny Holman and Ben net t 1973, Cheung 197 2) . Moreo t h e r r u r a l a r e a . recen t1y, a method has been developed t o tak ei n t o ac co un t t h e s u s p i c i o n t h a t c h a r a c t e r i s -R e c re a t io n a l q u a l i t y i s d e f i n ed h e r e as t i c s may n ot be e n t i r e l y i nd ep en de nt i n t h e i rc o m pr i s i ng t h e p hy s i c al c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f s ep ar at e c o n t r i b u t i o ns t o a r e c r e a t i o n i s t ' srec rea t i ona l a reas th a t may in f lue nce house- preferences f o r an area. Thus Cesar io (1973)h o ld s i n t h e i r ch o i ce s b et we en such a re as . used the Automat ic In te ra c t io n De tec to rR e c re a t i o n a l ch a ra c t e r i s t i c s h a ve b e e n t h e (A. I .D . ) Ana lys is wh ich a l lo ws f o r poss ib lesub j ec t o f much research , wh ich can be d iv id ed in te ra c t on be tween va r i ab les .i n t o t w o c l a sse s . The "st ate d pref eren ce" methods a11 pl ac eThe f i r s t c l a s s i s co nc er ne d w i t h e s ti m a- t h e re sp on de nt i n a h yp o t h e t i ca l ch o i ce s i t u a -t i n g , b y d i r e c t r es po ns es fr o m r e c r e a t i o n i s t s , t i on , so the re a re se r io us doubts abou t wheth-t h e r e l a t i v e i m po rt an ce s o f v a r i o u s c h a r a c t e r - e r t h e r e s u l t s w i l l p r e d i c t a c t ua l c h oi ce s.i s t i c s , t h e o v e r a l l " a t tr a c t iv e n es s " o f an The "revealed pref eren ce" methods developed soa re a, o r b o th . T h i s c l a s s i s c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y far have modeled the re la t ionships between

i t s dependence on s ta ted p re fe rences (S nden ch a ra c t e r i s t i c s a n d o b se rve d ch o i ce s w i t h o u t1973, C o r de l l and James 1972, S haf er and spe ci f y i ng t he under ly ing ' caus al phenomena.oth er s 1969, H o i n v i l l e 1971, Juurand and In th a t sense , these models a re incomp le te l yothers 1974). spec i f ied , so tha t p red ic t i ons f rom them maybe inaccurate.The a u t ho r i s g r a t e f u l t o Dr . 1 . S . The new method desc rib ed i n t h i s paper,Ferguson, D r . J . A. Sinden, Dr. C . P r i c e , wh i l e be long ing t o the "revea led p re fe rence"P r o f . J. A . C . Brown, M r . J. B. Jack, and c l a ss , d i f f e r s f r o m i t s p re de ce ss or s by i n c o r -Dr. J. E. O pi e f o r c o n s t r u c t i v e c r i t i c i s m p o ra t n g e xp l i c i t l y t h e u nd er1 y i n g cau se s o fo f an e a r l i e r d r a f t . observed cho ices . Sp ec i f i c a l l y , househo lds


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ar e cons idered t o make cho ices t ha t maxim izee xp e ct e d s a t i s f a c t i o n , s u b j e c t t o b ud ge t co n-s t r a i n t s . Thus, t he me thod ac co r ds w i t h ac-c ep ted u t i l t y t heo r y , as ex pounded, f o r exam-p l e , i n Gree n ( l 9 7 2 ), w i t h on e i mp o r ta n t d i f -f e re n ce . S a t i s f a c t i o n i s t a k en t o be a f u n c-t i o n o f r e c r e a t io n a re a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s, r a t h -e r t han s i m p l y o f t he a reas t hems e lv es. Themethod, the re f ore , fo l l ow s a deve lopment o fa cc ep te d u t i l i t y t h e or y a t t r i b u t e d m ost f r e -quen t l y t o Lancas ter (1966).

The ba s i c elements of th e new method w i l lb e p re s en t ed a nd i l l u s t r a t e d w i t h s i m p l e nu-mer i ca l examples , w i t h some sugges t ions f o re m p i r i c a l e ~ t i m a t i o n . ~The me th od has t h r e ebas ic e lements :( i ) D e f i n e t h e g r ou p of r e c r e a t i o n a r ea sfro m which th e household may choose,once i t has dec ided t o make a rec re-a t i o n t r i p . The g r ou p mu st i n c l u d ea l l a re as t h a t a r e p o t e n t i a l s u b s t i-t u t es f o r t h e a r ea c hosen.

i i ) I s o l a t e and meas ur e t he c ha r ac te r i s -t i c s l i k e l y t o i n f lu e n ce t h e house-h ol d ' s choic es between members o ft h e g roup.i i ) E s t i ma te t h e ex pend i t u r e o f house -h o l d s o n r e c r e a t i o n t r i p s , and r e -l a t e t h i s t o t he r e l a t i v e p r ef e r-ences f o r t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s .

The d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e grou p o f r e c r e a t io na re as i s a w e ll -k no w n p r ob le m i n r e c r e a t i o nand econometr ic s t ud ie s. Hence, i t i s l e f tu n t i l l a s t i n t h e e ns ui ng d e s c r i p t io n , so t h a ta t te n t i o n can be focused on th e more i nnova-t i v e as pec ts o f t he p r es en t me thod . Ther e -f o r e , t h e d e s c r i p t i o n be g i ns on t h e u nd er -s t a nd i n g t h a t , f o r a r e c r e a t i o n a re a o f p a r -t i c u l a r conc er n t o dec is i onm aker s, t he gr oupo f s u b s t i t u t e a r ea s has a l r ead y been def i ned.

THE "BEST" AREAS AT A GIVEN COSTTo i l l u s t r a t e t h e met ho d, c o n s i d e r a hy -po t he t i c a l p r ob l em and s e t t i n g . Suppose thep ro bl em i nv o l ve s a l t e r a t i o n s t o a p a r t i c u l a rsk i a rea. For simp1 i c i t y , assume on ly onec e n t e r o f p o p u l a t i o n i s i n v o l v e d. The g ro upo f r e c r e a t i o n a re a s t o b e c o n si d e re d , t h e r e -f o r e , i n c lu d e s a l l s k i a re as a cc e s s i b le t ot h a t p o p u l a t i o n c e n t e r , a ss um in g f o r s i m p l i c i -t y t h a t t he se a r e t h e be s t s ub s t i t u t e s f o r t h earea concerned.

Emp i r ic al w ork on the model i s under way a tt he Departmen t o f Fo r es t r y , Ox for d Un i v e r s i t y .The f i na nc ia l suppor t o f t he Fore s ts Commis-s io n , V i c t o r i a , A u s t r a l i a, i s g r a t e f u l l yac know ledged.

Consider a " repr esen ta t i v e" househo ldf r om t h i s po pu l a t i on c en te r . A "hous ehol d"may, o f c ou rs e , c ompr is e an i nd i v i dua l , o r af a m il y -- t h e t e r m i s us ed t o d e no t e t h e u n i tth at makes th e choic es.The method makes three basic assumptionsabout th e behav ior o f a househo ld :1 . A househo ld i s we l l - i n for med about

t h e c h a ra c t er i s t i cs o f a l l t heac c es s i b l e a r eas ,2. A ho us eh ol d a l l o c a t e s a p a r t o f i t sannua l income to s k i i ng t r i p s du r -i ngth e year , and3. A household chooses th e area (ora re a s) t h a t p r o v i d e s t h e b es t s k i i n gq u a l i t y f o r t h e g i v e n b u d ge t - -s k ii n gqua1 i t y be i ng some f unc t i o n o f a r eac h a r a c t e r i s t i c s .To i l l u s t r a t e t he a n a l y t i c a l p ro ce du re ,

c o n si d e r j u s t o ne o f t h e h o u s e h ol d ' s o b j e c -t i v e s i n go i ng t o a s k i a r ea f o r a weekend.Say t h i s o b j ec t i v e was t o m ax im iz e t he d i s -t ance c ove red on t he snow, t r a v e l l i n g downh i l la t some g i v en r a te o f des cen t . Fo r t h i s ob-j e c t i v e , s e ve r a l a re a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s w o ul d b ei m por tant , i nc l u d i ng snow qu a l i t y , s l ope qua l -i t y , l i f t q u a l i t y , and o t h e r s . T a k in g j u s tt h e f i r s t two t o si m pl i fy t h e i l l u s t r a t i o n , i twoul d be nec es sa r y t o de f i n e t he c ha r ac te r i s -t i c s i n te r ms o f some measu r ab l e, phy s i c a l a t -t r i b u t es t ha t gove rned the d i s tan c e c ove red bya s k i e r t r a v e l l i n g d o w n h il l a t a gi v en r a t e .For example , the s teeper the s lope, the sha l -l ower t he t r av e r s es needed fo r a g i v en r a t e o fdesc ent ; s o t he g r e a te r t he d i s ta nc e c ov e r edi n one weekend , c e te r i s pa r i bu s . A s i m i l a rs i t u a t i o n e x i s t s f o r " c r i s p e r" snow s ur f a cec o n d i t i o n s . O f course, a l lowances would havet o be made f o r o th er f ac t ors , such as i cy con-d i t i ons, o r dangerous 1 y s teep s l opes , a f f e c t -i n g s a f e t y , b u t t h e s e need n ot a f f e c t t h e p r e -s e n t i l l u s t p a t i o n .

The two ch ar ac te r i s t i c s m ight be measured,f o r each sk i a rea on weekends du r in g a g i vensnow season. The re su l t s f o r each area wouldbe a ve ra ge d t o y i e l d q u a n t i t i e s f o r a n av e ra g eweekend. I f , f o r example , t he re were j u s tf ou r s k i a r eas w i t h i n a week end's t r av e l 1 i ngt i me , t hen the ave r age quan t i t i es m i gh t be:

Area Snow Slopenumber : q u a l i t y ( ~ ~ ) q u a I i t y ( ~ , )25 5085 2525 5075 75


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I f = w e e k en d s w e r e s p e n t a t a g i v e na re a , t h e n t h e q u a n t i t y o f e ac h c h a r a c t e r i s t i cw o u ld b e t w i c e t h a t s hown i n t h e t a b u l a t i o nb e ca u se t h e d i s t a n c e c o v e r e d o n t h e s now w o u ldb e d o u b l e d . T h us , c o n s i d e r i n g snow qu a1 i t y o ni t s ow n, t h e h o u s e h o ld w o u l d h av e t o m aket h r e e t r i p s t o a r e a 1 i n o r d e r t o o b t a i n t h esame q u a n t i t y a s c o u l d b e o b t a i n e d o n j u s t o n et r i p t o a r e a 4 . B u t t h e h ou s eh o ld m us t c on -s i d e r t h e r e l a t i v e q u a n t i t i e s o f both c h a r a c -t e r i s t i c s o n a11 t h e ar ea s .

I n a d d i t i o n , t h e h o u se h ol d ha s t o c o n-s i d e r t h e r e l a t i v e c o s t s o f t h e f o u r a l t e r n a -t i v e s . L e t t he s e c o s ts , i n c l u d i n g t r a v e l l i n g ,a c c om m o d a t io n a nd s k i i n g , b e , o n a v e r ag e :

Area number : A v e r a g e c o s t s$ ( P I

I f t h e h o u s eh o ld a l l o c a t e d , s ay $ 10 0 f o rt h e y e a r ' s s k i i n g w e ek en ds , t h e n t h e m axim umnum ber o f t r i p s t o e a ch a r ea w o u ld b e:

Are a numbe r : Maximumweekends

I t f o l l o w s t h a t t h e maximum q u a n t i t i e so f e ac h c h a r a c t e r i s t i c t h a t c o u ld b e o b t a i n e da t e ac h a r e a w o u l d b e :

M axim um q u a n t i t i e s o fA r e anumber :

1234

T he se r e s u l t s c a n b e i l l u s t r a t e d g eo me t-r i c a l l y ( f i g . 1 ) . T he i n i t i a l c h o ic e s t h a tf a c e t h e h o u se h o ld c an b e r ed u ce d f r o m f o u r t ot h r e e . A r e a 3 w ou ld be a n i n e f f i c i e n t c h o i c e

b ec au se mo re o f b o t h c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s c o u l d b eo b t a i n e d , f o r t h e same bu d ge t, a t a ny o f t h eo t h e r t h r e e a r e a s , o r some c o m b in a t i o n o fth em . T he ho u s e h o l d w as n o t o b l i g e d t o c h o o s ej u s t o n e o f t h e a v a i l a b l e a r e a s - - i t c o u l d makea n um ber o f t r i p s t o m or e t h a n on e a r e a , s ol o n g a s t h e b u d g e t w as n o t e x ce e de d . I n t h i sc a se , t h e maximum q u a n t i t i e s o f c h a r a c t e r i s -t i c s o b t a i n e d w ou ld f a l l som ew here a l o n g t h es t r a i g h t l i n e s 1-4 , o r 4 -2, o r b o th . O b v io u s-l y , n o t fl p o i n t s o n t h e s e l i n e s a r e o b t a i n -a b l e , b ec au se f o r a s i n g l e h ou s e ho l d, f r a c -t i o n s o f t r i p s ca n no t b e made. B u t t h i s i sn o t a c o n s t r a i n t w hen l a r g e n um be rs o f h o u se -h o l d s a r e c o n s i d e r e d . T he 1 i n e s 1 - 4 a n d 4 - 2r ep r e s en t a l l e f f i c i e n t c o m b in a t i on s o f t r i p st o t h e s k i a r ea s ; t h e r e fo r e , t h e y c o n s t i t u t ew ha t h as b ee n c a l l e d t h e " e f f i c i e n c y f r o n t i e r "( L a n c a s t e r 1 9 6 6 ) . . T he y r e p re s e n t a l l t h e' b e s t " t r i p s f o r t h e g i v e n bu dg et .

The r e l e v a n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s f o r t h eg ro u p o f a re a s ca n th u s b e i d e n t i f i e d e m p i r i -c a l 1 y. I f , o n a d o p t i n g some s e t o f c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c s , a n a re a ap pe ar s t o be i n e f f i c i e n ti . e ., f a 1 I s b e ne a th t h e e f f i c i e n c y f r o n t i e r ) ,y e t r e c e i ve s s i g n i f i c a n t num bers o f v i s i t o r sf r o m t h e g i v e n p o p u l a t i o n c e n t e r , t h en t h ec h a r a c t e r i s t i c s m us t h av e be en w r o n g l y c ho s en ,o r w r o n g l y m ea su re d. S i m i l a r l y , i f a n a r e aa pp ea rs e f f i c i e n t y e t r e c e i v e s no v i s i t o r s ,t h e n t h e sam e c o n c l u s i o n w o u l d b e dr a w n.

Once t h e e f f i c i e n c y f r o n t i e r h as b ee n d e-f i n e d , t h e a c t u a l p o i n t on i t t h e h o u s eh o l dw o u ld c h oo s e d ep en ds o n t h e r e l a t i v e i m po r-t a n c e t h e h o u s eh o l d a t t a c h e s t o t h e t wo c h a r -a c t e r i s t i c s . Thus i t i s n e ce s sa ry t o c o n s i d e rt h e h o u s eh o l d p r e f e r e n c e s .HOUSEHOLD PREFERENCES

H o u s e h o l d p r e f e r e n c e s c a n b e r e p r e s e n t e db y i n d i f f e r e n c e c u r ve s w h i ch t r a c e o u t t h et r a d e - o f f t h e h o u se h ol d i s p r e p ar e d t o makeb etw ee n t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . I f , f o r e xa m ple ,snow q u a l i t y i s p oo r a t a g i v e n a re a , t h eh o u se h o ld m i g h t b e p re p a r e d t o s e l e c t a n o t h e ra r e a w i t h b e t t e r sn ow , e v en i f h e s l o p e q u a l -i t y i s a b i t w or s e. T h i s s e l e c t i o n ca n b e i l -l u s t r a t e d b y c u r v e s ( f i g . 2 ) . E ac h c u r v et r ac e s o u t t h e c o m b in a t i o n o f q u a n t i t i e s o f Ziand Z 2 b etw e en w h i c h t h e h o u se h o ld i s i n d i f -f e r e n t . The c u rv e s f u r t h e r f r om t h e o r i g i nr ep r e s en t h ig h e r l e v e l s o f u t i l t y ( i e . " s a t -i s f a c t i o n " o r " pr e f e re n c e 1 ' ) ; i n f a c t t h e y maybe b e s t t h o ug h t o f a s c o n t o u rs o f a c o n t i n u o u ss u r fa c e . From h e re o n, t h e te r m " u t i l i t yf u n c t i o n " w i l l be us ed t o d e s c r i b e t h i s s u r -f a ce . T he c u r v e s w i l l b e i n c l i n e d m ore s t ee p -l y t o w a rd o n e o f t h e a x es i f t h e h o u s e h o l d h asa s t r o n ge r r e l a t i v e p re f e re n c e f o r t h e c h ar ac -t e r i s t i c i d e n t i f i e d w i t h t h a t a x i s t h a n f o rt h e o t h e r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c .


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I n the ex t reme, i f the household was in- An in d i v id ua l househo ld would , t her e for e ,t e r e st e d i n j u s t o ne o f t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , never need to v i s i t more than k areas, where ksay Zl, t h en th e u t i l i t y fu n c t i o n s c o nt o ur s i s t h e r e l e v a n t n umber o f c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s .w ou ld c o n s i s t o f s t r a i g h t l i n e s , t h us : But t h ere were o the r househo lds i n then c r e a s i n g po pul at ion center , and s in ce th ey may have hadIeve1 s d i f f e r en t p re fe rences , t hey mus t be cons idered.o fz:u+. u t i l i t y0 i COMMUNITY PREFERENCES

I f t he c ha r ac t e r i s t i c s come i n t o o l ay sequen -as suggested by Juurand and others. t he contours n igh t appear as :

I t i s o o s s i b l e t o s u oe ri mp os e f i g u r e 2 onf i g u r e 1 , as shown i n f i g ur e 3 .

The household nay seek t o maximize th eq u a n t i t y o f s i t e c h a r a c t er i s t i c s f o r a o i ve nc o s t , i r r e s p e c t i v e o f t h e number o f t r i p s . I nr e so e ct t o t h e snow q u a l i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c ,f o r examole, t he househo ld cou ld ob t a i n thesame qu an t i ty by ta k i ng e i th e r one weekend a tarea 4 , or th r ee weekends a t a rea 1 . Thehouseho ld m igh t be ind i f f e ren t be tween thesetwo a l t e r n a t i v e s , c e t e r i s o a r i bu s , i f t heov e ra l l c os t s o f each w ere equa l. T he c os t s ,o f c ou r se , w ou ld h ave t o i n c l ud e , i n a d d i t i o nt o t r a v e l c o s ts , t h e o p p o r t u n i t y c o s ts o ft i m e, s i nc e one a l t e rn a t i v e t akes up t h reet imes as rany weekends as the o t her . I t i so o s si b l e t o a l l o w f o r t h i s i n e m p ir i c a l wo rk(see, f o r example, K e i th and Workman 1975,Bees ley 1965). Under these con di t io ns, theh o us e ho l d' s c h o i c e s i t u a t i o n i s i 1 l u s t r a t e d i nf i g u r e 3 .

Under the se c i rcumsta nces, the householdwould r ea ch i t s h ig h es t l e ve l o f u t i l i t y a tj u s t o ne p o i n t on t he e f f i c i e n c y f r o n t i e r .T h is p o i n t , T , i s where t h e u t i l i t y f u n ct i o ni s j u s t t an ge nt o n t h e e f f i c i e n c y f r o n t i e r . Tf a l l s ex ac t l y midway bet ween po i n t s 1 and 4,which means th at th e household 's budget i sd iv ided equa l l y be tween areas 1 and 4 . Thus,l e t t i n g the househo ld 's budget be $100, theo pti mu m c o mb i na t io n o f t r i p s i s :

Area number: Opt imum t r ips :household Hi

Let the household jus t d iscussed by de-noted by Hi, and l e t the re be j u s t th ree oth erh ou se ho ld s H2, H3, H C on si de r e ach i n t u r n.F i r s t l y , imagine H2 has the same annual budgetf o r s k i i n g weekends as HI $100, but i t has ast ro nger preferen ce than Hi f o r Zl r e l a t i v e t oZT T h i s means t h a t H 2 ' s u t i l i t y f u n c t i o nwould be in cl in ed more than Hi 's towards theZl a x i s ( f i g . 4 ) . As a r e s u l t o f t h i s i n c l i-n a t i on , t h e p o i n t o f t an ge nc y o n t h e e f f i c i e n -c y f r o n t i e r i s f u r t h e r t ow ar ds t h e Zl a x i s .I n f a c t , i t i s " ta ng en t" d i r e c t l y upon p o i n t4 , imp ly ing t ha t H2 devotes i t s who le budgett o a rea 4 ex c l us iv el y . Thus the optimum com-b i n a t i o n o f t r i p s f o r H2 i s :

Area number: Optimum t r i p s : Hz1 02 03 04 2

H3 has exact ly the same preferences and budgetas Hz, so tha t i t s optimum combinat ion oft r i p s i s the same. These can be added toy i e l d :

Area number: Optimum t r i p s : Hy + H3

H4 has an even s t ro nger pref eren ce fo r Z lt han f o r Z2, s o t h a t i t s u t i l i t y f u nc t i on i stanqent even fu r th er towards th e po i n ts 4 and2. Hence i t s budget i s d iv ide d equa l l y be-tween Zl ax i s: midway between are as 2 and 4.But H4 's budget i s $300, so th a t t he or i g i na le f f i c i e n c y f r o n t i e r (drawn f o r a bu dg et o f$100) i s expanded by a sca l a r f ac to r o f 3( f q. 4) . Thus H4's optimum combinat i on o fv i s i t s i s :

Area number: Optimum v i s i t s : H41 02 33 04 3


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increasing levals of utility

Efficiency Frontier \$100 budget) contours of equal levels of utility

3, ( "Snow q u a l i t y " )J.

Figure 1--Maximum quantities of two Figure 2--~amily f indifference characteristics obtainable at four curves (the "utility function") of ski areas iith an annual budget of a household. $100.

300

Figure 3--Optimum choice for household H1 occurs at T, the point of tangency of its utility function on the Efficiency Frontier.

Z , ( "Snow q u a l i t y " )


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2

The t o t a l number o f v i s i t s f o r t h e w ho le com-m u n i t y i s :

- H2 + '43 H4 CommunityI -0 0 2

T hus, f o r a g i ve n e f f i c i e n c y f r o n t i e r , ac e r t a i n d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p re fe re nc es c ou pl edw i t h a c e r t a i n d i s t r i b u t i o n o f e xp en di tu re sr e s u l t i n a c e r t a i n number o f v i s i t s t o t h eareas concerned. The same number o f v i s i t swou ld have resu l ted i f , n s t ea d o f HI,, t h e r ehad been two households wi th Hnls pre ferences,e ac h w i t h a b u dg e t o f $ 15 0. S i m i l a r l y , i f H3h

state-of-the-art methods for research, planning, and determining the benefits of outdoor recreation

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