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Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
Argentina
Ramiro CostaChief Economist
State of Argentine Farm Policy and market conditions post‐election
2016 Agricultural Outlook ForumUSDA Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
Source: The National Institute of Statistics and Census. Argentina
ARGENTINE AGRICULTURE IN CONTEXT
Share of the agro‐industrial sector in the total value of exported goods
59%
8%
34% Agriculturalproducts
Minerals andEnergy
Manufacturedgoods
2016 Agricultural Outlook ForumUSDA Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
ARGENTINE AGRICULTURE IN CONTEXT
Source: USDA Production, Supply and Distribution Online (02‐16‐2016). 2015/16 Feb
Soybean oil(48,5% share) and soybeanmeal (47,9%
share)
Sorghum
SoybeansCorn
Sunflower and Sunflower meal
Barley
Argentina: global exports ranking
30%24%
20%16%
12%7% 4% 3%
‐50%
‐40%
‐30%
‐20%
‐10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Colombia Peru EuropeanUnion
Bolivia Mexico U.S Brazil Chile Argentina
30%24%
20%16%
12%7% 4% 3%
‐43%‐50%
‐40%
‐30%
‐20%
‐10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Colombia Peru EuropeanUnion
Bolivia Mexico U.S Brazil Chile Argentina
2016 Agricultural Outlook ForumUSDA Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
Producer Support Estimate (PSE)
Source: IADB OECD 2013
Date may‐15
Soybean FOB Arg. 360,7 USD/tn
Export Tax 126,2 USD/tn
FOB ‐ Export Duty 234,5 USD/tn
Main agricultural policies: 2002‐2015
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange2016 Agricultural Outlook ForumUSDA
Tax• Exports Duties
NTB• Quantitative restrictions• Other non‐tariff barriers on export
Controls
• Maximum prices for live cattle• Maximum prices for retail sales
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
Infrastructure
2016 Agricultural Outlook ForumUSDA
80% of soybean production: less than 300 miles away from ports
85% transport by: truck
2/3 of the national and state roads: not paved.
February 2016 Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
High tax burden: ordinary taxes + export taxes.
Lower crop prices: export taxes + export quotas + other regulations.
Results: Intervention Policies
Negative impact on incentives for production:
• Investments: technology
• Area growth‐rate
• Agricultural practices
5%
2%
1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1993‐1999 2000‐2006 2007‐2015
Area Growth Rate
9.5429.672
9.826
13.4 13.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
01/O
CT/2015
06/O
CT/2015
09/O
CT/2015
15/O
CT/2015
20/O
CT/2015
23/O
CT/2015
28/O
CT/2015
02/N
OV/2015
05/N
OV/2015
11/N
OV/2015
16/N
OV/2015
19/N
OV/2015
24/N
OV/2015
30/N
OV/2015
03/DEC
/2015
10/DEC
/2015
15/DEC
/2015
18/DEC
/2015
23/DEC
/2015
29/DEC
/2015
04/JAN
/201
607
/JAN
/201
6
USD
AR$ / USD Exchange Rate
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
Election: November 22nd
Presidential inauguration:December 10th
Removal of:
Currency controls: December 17th
Export taxes: December 17th
Export permit system: December29th
TimelineNew Administration: Significant Ag. Policy Changes
2016 Agricultural Outlook ForumUSDA
ARGENTINA TOWARDS 2024/25
World and Argentine Agribusiness Reference Scenario to 2024‐25INAI FOUNDATION
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
Production Estimates: baseline scenario
2014/15 to 2024/25
Source: INAI Foundation & USDA Baseline
2016 Agricultural Outlook ForumUSDA
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
Production Estimates: new scenario
2014/15 to 2024/25
2016 Agricultural Outlook ForumUSDA
x 6
Source: INAI Foundation & USDA Baseline
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
Source: INAI Foundation
2016 Agricultural Outlook ForumUSDA
Wheat
New Scenario: short‐run changes
Corn
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
22/23
23/24
24/25
000 ha
s
Historical Baseline New Scenario
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
Exports: Argentine market share
Source: INAI Foundation
2016 Agricultural Outlook ForumUSDA
2014 2024 baseline
2024 new scenario
Total 7,4% 6,7% 9,5%
Cereals 5,2% 4,5% 8,0%
Wheat 2,7% 2,3% 4,9%
Corn 11,6% 8,8% 17,9%
Soybean 9,1% 7,6% 9,1%
Soybean Oil 49,4% 41,1% 48,5%
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange
Final Remarks
Argentine new ag policy framework
2016 Agricultural Outlook ForumUSDA
A new normal:
On the track of growth New opportunities: investments in agribusiness
There is a new agenda:
Smart integration to world markets Work on productivity