Starter Question 5

• Take a copy of “Romney says…” off the cart. What effect does the primary system have on the ideological orientation of presidential candidates versus the general election? To what extent is health care reform evidence of this shift for Romney? What topic(s) could be considered evidence of the same shift for Obama? You may use topics from the 2008 election for your answer. (10 minutes)

• I will also be walking around to check your notebooks

Presidential Campaigns and Elections

By Mr. Miguel

Academy of Our Lady of Guam

Getting Nominated

• Pre-Primary Season

• Primaries and caucuses

• Presidential Primary

• Convention

Pre-Primary Season

• Can begin unofficially • “Invisible Primary”

• If successful, file with Federal Election Commission (FEC) • Option: Exploratory

Committee

• Funding the Campaign

• Official announcement

Primaries and Caucuses

Party Caucus

• Grass root members in each community gather

• Discuss current candidates

• Delegates often locally chosen -> sent to national convention

• Larger caucuses -> national delegates

• Time consuming/low participation

Presidential primary

• More common

• Closed Primary: only registered policy members can vote

• Open Primary: any registered voter can vote

• Dem. favor proportional representation

• Rep utilize a variety of methods• Winner take all, direct voting,

no formal systemBoth: process in which delegates to the parties national convention are chosen

State Primaries

• Front Loading

• Tradition: Iowa + New Hampshire Caucus

• Consequence: candidates must be prepared form the very beginning! • Favors well known candidates/incumbent advantage

• No holding back

• Conflicts between states + national party preferences

• Strategy: Gain momentum

The Convention

• Hammer out + approve platforms

• VP officially named (means of balancing ticket)• George Bush• John Kerry• Obama• McCain

• No clear evidence of VP’s influence in elections

• Provides nominees with a “convention bump” (Colbert Bump?)

The General Election

Campaign

• The Electoral College

• Who Runs the Campaign?

• Role of the Media

• Presidential Debates

• Money

• GOTV

The Electoral College

• Not a national race

• 538 votes total/270 to win

• 23rd Amendment gives DC 3 votes

• If no candidate receives majority -> Constitution calls for HoR to choose from top three electoral vote winners • Each state has 1 vote • Senate decides VP

• All states EXCEPT Main and Nebraska operate on winner take all basis

Criticism of Electoral College

• Undemoratic

• Popular outcome can be dictated by “faithless electors”

• Distorts candidates campaign strategies

Who Runs the Campaign?

• Increasingly specialized mix of professional staff members and hires• Research teams • Legal team• Internet staffers• Travel team• Media Consultants

Presenting the Candidate

The issues

Valance Issues

• Policy matters on which the voters + candidates share the same preference

• “motherhood + apple pie”

• No opposition

Position Issues

• Two sides

• Gain friends and enemies

• Realistic candidates avoid being clearly identified with this

Wedge Issues

• A position issue on which the parties differ and that proves controversy within the ranks of a party

• Ex. Affirmative Action

• Rep – not dangerous

• D – dicey, divided

Real campaigns: debate positions not on issues but about which issues should be considered

The Media

Negative Advertising

• Can turn off voters

• Public accepts accurate attacks; registers more quickly with voters

• Goal: not to maximize opportunities for free coverage but to control the kind of coverage they get

• Broadcast news – lack of substance

• Hard vs. soft news

Presidential Debates

• Do they matter?

• Can move voter intentions 2-4% can be significant

• Citizens learn about issues better

• 2008 = unusually important

Money

Hard Money

• Refers to funds given directly to candidates by individuals, political action committees (PACs), the political parties, and the government

• Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA)

• Limit flow of large contributors • Ind. $2300 limit per

cand./$108,200 to all candidates per 2 year election cycle

Soft Money

• Unregulated

• As long as the money is not spent to tell the people HOW to vote or is not coordinated with a specific candidate’s campaign, FEC could not regulate it

• Unlimited funds for TV + Radio ads (free speech)

• 527 groups

Interpreting elections

• Claiming electoral mandate – maintain the people want the president • Preference for his/her leadership• Can be turned on its head

• Media offers interpretation• Hone in on agreed-upon standard explanation of

elections• 92’ – Clinton won because of GHWB’s

ineffectiveness at dealing with recession• 96’ – Clinton appealed to “soccer moms”• 2000 – Bush was more likable than Gore

Citizens and Elections

• First Model: The Elite Model

• Second Model: Pluralistic Model

• Third Model: Participatory Model

• Fourth Model: Elements from all 3

Elections make a difference?

• Direct relationship between national elections and the policies that government subsequently enacts

• Keeps officeholders attentive to what they are doing

• Citizens CAN and DO change what the government does

Group Component: Party Platforms

• Group Component: Party Platforms – Computer Lab? (20 minutes)• Find g• First, identify your caucus. Then, create a list of 15 topics, or planks, that are important

to your members. Your plank list should reflect the degree of consensus or division within your party. The first planks should be the ones with the most consensus. Please put the name of every member of your party's caucus on your page.

• New Component: Complete your party platform in your own words. Identify five issues in your party platform that are in the official planks of your national party. Copy and paste the plank from the national party onto your page under your plank. Use a different font color. Be prepared to explain similarities and differences when the platforms are presented Wednesday.

• Here are links for each national party's platform: Republicans ~ Democrats ~ Libertarians

• Here are the links for APGOPO Party Platforms: Republicans ~ Democrats ~ Libertarians• For example, if no Republicans in our class support abortion rights that plank can be

near the top. If a few support abortion rights, then it is lower down the list of planks. If our class members significantly contradict the national party, then that item should not be on the class platform; if all our class Republicans are pro-choice then abortion should not be on the platform.

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