standard bank corporate and investment banking south africa zlatin america / e. europe / asia /...

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1 Standard Bank Corporate and Investment Banking South Africa David Munro 12 May 2008 Standard Bank – a growth story Strong South African base Selected acquisitions in Africa and other emerging markets Establishment of operations in key emerging markets International operations now showing strong growth after substantial investment Standard Bank has grown HEPS and DPS by an average of 20% per annum over the past 20 years

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Page 1: Standard Bank Corporate and Investment Banking South Africa zLatin America / E. Europe / Asia / Africa / Middle East axis increased trade, capital flow zDevelopment of financial markets,

1

Standard Bank Corporate and Investment Banking South Africa

David Munro

12 May 2008

Standard Bank – a growth story

Strong South African base

Selected acquisitions in Africaand other emerging marketsEstablishment of operations

in key emerging markets

International operationsnow showing strong growthafter substantial investment

Standard Bank has grown HEPS and DPSby an average of 20% per annum over the past 20 years

Page 2: Standard Bank Corporate and Investment Banking South Africa zLatin America / E. Europe / Asia / Africa / Middle East axis increased trade, capital flow zDevelopment of financial markets,

2

335396

471558

666

796

961

124 151232 267

320386

102 0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Headline EPS DPS

cents

Group headline earnings and dividends per share

CAGR 19%

CAGR 25%

Group return on equity

1 939 1 957 2 154 2 464 2 830 3 548 4 255

20.1 20.322.6 23.7

25.225.4 24.8

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070

10

20

30

40

NAV per share ROE

cents %

CAGR 14%

Page 3: Standard Bank Corporate and Investment Banking South Africa zLatin America / E. Europe / Asia / Africa / Middle East axis increased trade, capital flow zDevelopment of financial markets,

3

Business unit review

22

15

22

34

18

Headlineearnings

growth %

24.813 153Standard Bank Group

25.8973Liberty Life

24.712 180Banking activities

(246)Central & other

27.36 765Corporate & Investment Banking

28.15 661Personal & Business Banking

ROE %

Headline earnings

Rm 2007

Business unit review - geographic snapshot

581 269Rest of Africa

1510 805South Africa

22

98

15

15

Headline earnings

growth %

13 153Standard Bank Group

(150)Central funding

1 229Outside Africa

973South Africa (Liberty Life)

9 832South Africa (Banking operations)

Headline earnings

Rm 2007

Page 4: Standard Bank Corporate and Investment Banking South Africa zLatin America / E. Europe / Asia / Africa / Middle East axis increased trade, capital flow zDevelopment of financial markets,

4

Headline earnings mix by major business unit

-1%(2006: 1%)

51%(2006: 46%)

7%(2006: 8%)

43%(2006: 45%)

Personal & Business Banking Corporate & Investment BankingCentral & other Liberty Life

Recent developments

• 2007

- Acquired a 77% stake in BankBoston Argentina in April

- Acquired a 61% share of Dundas Unlü Securities in Turkey in September

- Acquired a 50,1% stake in IBTC Chartered Bank Plc in Nigeria in September

• 2008

- Industrial and Commercial Bank of China invested R36,7bn in Standard Bank for a 20% shareholding implemented in March

- In process of acquiring a 60% stake in CFC Bank Ltd in Kenya

Page 5: Standard Bank Corporate and Investment Banking South Africa zLatin America / E. Europe / Asia / Africa / Middle East axis increased trade, capital flow zDevelopment of financial markets,

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Current market conditions

• Significant subprime and secondary effects: a global phenomenon of falling asset prices and failing liquidity

• Constrained liquidity globally

• Heightened risk aversion, banks & investors: future not clear

• Effective closure of Securitisation Markets, global capital constraints

• Spiralling energy costs, electricity tariffs skewing the South African landscape

• Dramatically weaker US real economy

• Global Inflation?

• Knock-on effects of US slowdown on emerging markets

• Commodities still strong, but for how long?

• South African markets weaker since October: FX, Credit spreads, Yield curve

• Some markets seem to be powering ahead: should we be concerned?

Global financial crises

South Africa Sovereign 5-yr CDS vs.iTraxx Europe Crossover Series 7 and EMBI+ Spreads

Normalised Indices

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

04 M

ay 07

01 Ju

n 07

29 Ju

n 07

25 Ju

l 07

22 A

ug 07

17 S

ep 07

12 O

ct 07

07 N

ov 07

03 D

ec 07

28 D

ec 07

23 Ja

n 08

18 Feb

08

14 M

ar 08

09 A

pr 08

Spreads

SA 5-yr CDSiTraxx CrossoverEMBI+

Page 6: Standard Bank Corporate and Investment Banking South Africa zLatin America / E. Europe / Asia / Africa / Middle East axis increased trade, capital flow zDevelopment of financial markets,

6

SA macroeconomic outlook

• Slowdown in the SA economy becoming more evident– Prospective performance below trend

• Marked retrenchment in consumer spending

• Planned government infrastructure spend could provide an underpin to Wholesale banking growth in current conditions

2003 a 2004 a 2005 a 2006 a 2007 a 2008 f 2009 f 2010 f

GDP (% y/y) 3.1% 4.9% 5.0% 5.4% 5.1% 3.2% 3.9% 5.0%CPIX (annual average) 6.8% 4.3% 3.9% 4.6% 6.5% 9.2% 6.4% 5.0%Prime interest rate (year end) 11.5% 11.0% 10.5% 12.5% 14.5% 15.5% 14.0% 13.0%Average R/$ exchange rate 7.55 6.43 6.33 6.77 7.05 7.80 7.62 7.74

Source: South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Quarterly bulletin; Standard Bank Group Economics

Global emerging markets

Page 7: Standard Bank Corporate and Investment Banking South Africa zLatin America / E. Europe / Asia / Africa / Middle East axis increased trade, capital flow zDevelopment of financial markets,

7

Focus is on Global Emerging Markets

Brazil, Russia, China, India forecast as “G6” economies by 2050

Latin America / E. Europe / Asia / Africa / Middle East axis increased trade, capital flow

Development of financial markets, bank sector

Major commodity producing economies; significant infrastructure requirements

African and International footprint- in key markets

- franchise established

South African heritage- non-aligned, within axis

- appropriate product capability

Experience of developing financial markets – wholesale, retail

Core product expertise

Economic growth in the developing world:

The position for Standard Bank:

London

New York

Lima

Buenos Aires

Sao Paulo

Sydney

Prague

Milan Istanbul

Moscow

Tehran

DubaiShanghai

Hong Kong

Singapore Kuala Lumpur

Bucharest

Mexico City

Securities dealerBanking license

Representative office

Isle of Man

Jersey

Bank and Trust Licences

Outside Africa representation

Page 8: Standard Bank Corporate and Investment Banking South Africa zLatin America / E. Europe / Asia / Africa / Middle East axis increased trade, capital flow zDevelopment of financial markets,

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• Standard Bank started focusing on the African continent in 1992, when Standard Bank acquired the African operations of ANZ Grindlays Bank in 8 African countries (Botswana, Kenya, Uganda, Zaire, Zambia and Zimbabwe, with minority holdings in Ghana and Nigeria)

• Standard Bank is the Largest African banking group by assets, market capitalization and earnings

African representation

• Standard Bank Africa employs over 6 900 staff in Africa, with more than 50% of the staff based in Uganda, Namibia, Zimbabwe and Malawi. More than 98 % of the employees in country is local staff

• Standard Bank Africa’s main competitors on the continent are the International Banks, such as Citi, Barclays and Standard Charter, as well as the various local Banks in Country

African representation

Page 9: Standard Bank Corporate and Investment Banking South Africa zLatin America / E. Europe / Asia / Africa / Middle East axis increased trade, capital flow zDevelopment of financial markets,

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Our Structure

18

Corporate and Investment Banking SA

Coverage and

Distribution

Investment Banking

Global Markets

Transactional Products and

Services

Business Risk Director

Chief Operations

Officer

Page 10: Standard Bank Corporate and Investment Banking South Africa zLatin America / E. Europe / Asia / Africa / Middle East axis increased trade, capital flow zDevelopment of financial markets,

10

Our Brand of Corporate and Investment Banking

Transactional Ability

Idea Advisory Balance SheetCarry /

Risk Transfer

Client Relationship Management

Client centric model

• Two basic underpins

– A client centric business model in South Africa focused on sustainability and growth;

and

– Connectivity and integration with our International and African businesses

Page 11: Standard Bank Corporate and Investment Banking South Africa zLatin America / E. Europe / Asia / Africa / Middle East axis increased trade, capital flow zDevelopment of financial markets,

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Keys to 2008 CIB SA

• Safety first: Liquidity, Credit, Market and Operational risk

• Strength of our client franchise and transactional underpin

• Volatility of markets

• Opportunity for significant transactions:– BEE– FDI– Infrastructure– M&A

• Quality of our Capital Management: BII & Ecap

• Quality of our management of other scarce resources

Motivation of our staff: Finding the BalanceFocus on the Client

CIB’s brand of Corporate and Investment Banking

Intimately linked to highly sustainable transactional services

Allows us to maximise the value in our client relationships in the local market while

At the same time leveraging and being leveraged by our International and African operations