st regis retail saadiyat - mcarthur + company · 2019-02-26 · site analysis location the...

St Regis Retail SaadiyatTrade Area Analysis

Introduction

2

PROJECT ESSENTIALS

Project Details

Operator Abu Dhabi United Hospitality LLC

Project Name The Collection

Project Location St Regis Saadiyat Island Resort

Coordinates 24°32'18.3"N 54°25'28.0"E

GLA 85,144 sq ft (7,910 m²) including health club

Units 29

Main Retail Levels Ground

Retail Parking 350

Opened 2013

The Collection is a retail offering at The St Regis Saadiyat Island Resort, a hoteland serviced apartment complex located on Saadiyat Island, Abu Dhabi.

The St Regis Saadiyat Island Resort includes a 5-star hotel with 376 keys, 259serviced apartments and 33 villas and is surrounded by the Saadiyat Beach GolfClub with 18-hole course.

The retail offering comprises 29 units of retail, services and F&B located mainlyon ground level of the apartment buildings. Units are arranged in both enclosedair-conditioned mall space and an open courtyard with space for terrace seatingis available for several F&B units.

Customers may use the 3-level basement parking facility with a currentallocation of 350 bays, although capacity is available for over 1,200 vehicles.

St Regis Saadiyat Retail: Project Review: Draft Report: 20 December 2019

Market Background

▪ In current value terms, Abu Dhabi’s GDP growth rebounded into positiveterritory in late 2017 and continued into 2018 owing to higher average oilprices and production.

▪ The IMF expects real GDP growth of 0.5% and 2.6% in full year 2018 and2019 respectively, following a 1.6% drop last year, supported by the ongoingdiversification of the economy into non-oil sectors, such as financial services,retail and tourism.

▪ The population of Abu Dhabi Region stood at around 1.7 million at the end of2018 and, driven by robust birth rates among the citizen population and anexpected pick up in the demand for foreign workers after decline anddepopulation during 2016-2018, is expected to reach 2.0 million by 2028.

▪ Expansion in the population and a shift toward the nuclear family modelamong some Emirati citizens will drive growth in the number of households inAbu Dhabi from 283,000 in 2018 to reach around 342,000 by 2028.

▪ Average household spending on retail, dining and entertainment (RDE) inurban Abu Dhabi stood at around AED303,000 for Emirati households in2018 and around AED58,000 for non-Emirati households. This figure isexpected to rise to AED402,000 by 2028 for Emirati households and aroundAED77,000 for non-Emirati households.

▪ The number of hotel guests in Abu Dhabi City climbed to 4.3 million in 2017,and is expected to reach 4.4 million for 2018. Average length of stay droppedslightly in 2017 and is stagnant for 2018, leading to an expected small rise inoverall guest nights to just over 11.6 million. Year on year, guest nights rosestrongly for customer from UAE, India, China and UK.

3

KEY FINDINGS


Site Analysis

Location

▪ The Collection is located at The St Regis Saadiyat Island Resort complex inthe Saadiyat Beach district of on Saadiyat Island, Abu Dhabi. The St RegisSaadiyat Island Resort includes a 5-star hotel with 376 keys, 259 servicedapartments and 33 villas and is surrounded by the Saadiyat Beach Golf Clubwith 18-hole course.

▪ Saadiyat Island is a 27 sq km residential, leisure, educational and culturalhub, hosting Louvre Abu Dhabi, Saadiyat Beach Golf Club, New YorkUniversity Abu Dhabi, Saadiyat Public Beach and other attractions. Furthermajor residential development is under construction and in the pipeline.

Access & Visibility

▪ Access to the project from the nearby communities as well as the E12highway is relatively straightforward and convenient with a good quality roadnetwork and, typically, a low level of traffic.

▪ The retail offering has good visibility to passing traffic outside the hotelgrounds and, as such, options to implement wayfinding signage directingcustomers to the retail offering from the local roads should be explored.

Arrival experience and parking

▪ The branding and identity of ‘The Collection’ is good and promotes the retailoffering inside. The name has connotations of luxury brand collections andand includes a supermarket, everyday services and F&B. The parking garagehas ample provision for retail visitors.

4

KEY FINDINGS


Demand Analysis

▪ We expect the primary trade area (PTA) of the project to include the residenthouseholds and hotel guests of Saadiyat Island’s Saadiyat Beach districtroughly equivalent to a 5-10mins drive time from the project.

▪ The primary trade area includes the relatively low density neighbourhoodssurrounding the project, including 1,200 households and 5,600 localresidents. Forthcoming residential developments within in the area include83 units at Jawaher Saadiyat and 29 plots at Saadiyat Beach Golf Views. By2023, we forecast that the number of housing units will exceed 1,300households and 6,200 residents.

▪ The population consists of mainly expatriate couples and families working inAbu Dhabi. The income bracket of resident households is upper-middle toupper income with an average annual spending budget of AED900,000.

▪ Average spending on categories relevant to retail developments (retail,dining and entertainment, RDE) is estimated at AED385,000 in 2019,yielding a forecast total household RDE spending within the PTA of AED474million.

▪ We also expect the primary trade area of the project to include the hotelguests of Saadiyat Island’s Saadiyat Beach district, which currently offers1,693 rooms. Nearly 700,000 hotel guest nights are expected to be spentduring 2019 and with an average daily RDE spending of AED307, hotelguests are expected to generate total RDE spend of AED213 million in 2019.

▪ Assuming the primary trade area households will generate 60% of thedevelopment’s total revenue and hotel guests generate a further 20%, thisequates to 10% of total RDE spending by PTA residents and 7% of PTA hotelguests spending.

5

KEY FINDINGS


AED694 millionannual Retail, Dining and

Entertainment spending

potential

Demand Analysis

6

PRIMARY TRADE AREA SUMMARY - 2019

St Regis Retail Target Customers

700,000 guest nights at Saadiyat Beach resorts

per year

5,600 residentsin 1,200 upper income

households


Site Analysis

7

CONTEXT MAP

PROJECT SITE

Source: Google Maps; McARTHUR + COMPANY Analysis

ABU DHABI INT. AIRPORT

5km

ABU DHABI

SAADIYAT

ISLAND

ABU DHABI

ISLAND

MUSSAFAH

REEM

ISLAND

KHALIFA CITY

YAS

ISLAND

AL MARYAH

ISLAND


EMIRATES

PALACE

SHK ZAYED

MOSQUE

Site Analysis

8

ACCESS / EGRESS

PROJECT SITE

Source: Google Maps; McARTHUR + COMPANY Analysis

SAADIYAT ISLAND

ABU DHABI

AL MINA


NYU ABU DHABI

MAMSHA AL SAADIYAT

LOUVRE ABU DHABI

RESORT HOTELS

ACCESS FROM WEST

ACCESS FROM EAST

EGRESS TO WEST

EGRESS TO EAST

Site Analysis

9

SITE PHOTOS


Site Analysis

10

SITE PHOTOS


Site Analysis

11

SITE PHOTOS


Supply Analysis

12

ABU DHABI CITY: MAJOR RETAIL DEVELOPMENTS MAP

Source: McARTHUR + COMPANY Analysis; Esri, HERE, DeLorme, © OpenStreetMap.

ABU DHABI

58

62

59

60

61

PROJECT SITE


Demand Analysis

▪ We expect the primary trade area (PTA) of the project to include the residenthouseholds and hotel guests of Saadiyat Island’s Saadiyat Beach districtroughly equivalent to a 5-10mins drive time from the project.

▪ The primary trade area includes the relatively low density neighbourhoodssurrounding the project, including 1,200 households and 5,600 localresidents. Forthcoming residential developments within in the area include83 units at Jawaher Saadiyat and 29 plots at Saadiyat Beach Golf Views. By2023, we forecast that the number of housing units will exceed 1,300households and 6,200 residents.

▪ The population consists of mainly ex-patriate couples and families working inAbu Dhabi. The income bracket of resident households is upper-middle toupper income with an average annual spending budget of AED900,000.

▪ Average spending on categories relevant to retail developments is estimatedat AED385,000 in 2019, yielding a forecast total household spending onretail, dining & entertainment (RDE) within the PTA of AED474 million.

▪ We also expect the primary trade area of the project to include the hotelguests of Saadiyat Island’s Saadiyat Beach district, which currently offers1,693 rooms. Nearly 700,000 hotel guest nights are expected to be spentduring 2019 and with an average daily RDE spending of AED307, hotelguests are expected to generate total RDE spend of AED213 million in 2019.

▪ Assuming the primary trade area households will generate 60% of thedevelopment’s total revenue and hotel guests generate a further 20%, thisequates to 10% of total RDE spending by PTA residents and 7% of PTA hotelguests spending. We consider these to be achievable targets if therecommendations in the report are implemented.

13

KEY FINDINGS


Demand Analysis

14

PRIMARY TRADE AREA: DEFINITION

Conclusion

We expect the primary trade area of the project, therefore, to include theresident households and hotel guests of Saadiyat Island’s Saadiyat Beachdistrict east of the Nudra Saadiyat, north of the E12 highway and west of theHidd al Saadiyat development.

This area includes the following residential neighbourhoods and hospitalitydevelopments:

▪ St Regis Saadiyat Island Resort

▪ St Regis Saadiyat Island Residences

▪ Saadiyat Beach Villas

▪ Saadiyat Beach Residences

▪ Saadiyat Rotana Resort & Villas

▪ Rixos Saadiyat Island Abu Dhbai Hotel

▪ Park Hyatt Abu Dhabi Hotel & Villas

▪ Jumeirah at Saadiyat Island Resort & Hotel

▪ Jawaher Saadiyat (under construction)

▪ Saadiyat Beach Golf Views (under construction)

▪ Future hospitality plots along the Saadiyat Beach previously designated asHilton, Ritz Carlton, Mandarin Oriental and Shagri-La.


St Regis Residences: an apartment development and part of the trade area

Saadiyat Beach Golf Views: upcoming villa development within the trade area

Demand Analysis

15

PRIMARY TRADE AREA MAP

SAADIYAT ISLAND


PROJECT SITE

JAWAHER SDYT (U/C) SDYT BEACH GOLF VIEWS (U/C)

SDYT BEACH RESIDENCES

MAMSHA AL SDYT (U/C)

HIDD AL SDYT

JUMEIRAH HOTEL

PARK HYATT

RIXOS

ROTANA


Demand Analysis

16

DRIVE TIMES MAP

SAADIYAT ISLAND


PROJECT SITE


Demand Analysis

17

PRIMARY TRADE AREA: RESIDENTIAL

The number of residential housing units within the primary trade area isexpected to be 1,367 during 2019.

This includes

▪ St Regis Residences: 259 apartments and 33 villas

▪ Saadiyat Beach Villas: 580 3-6 bed villas and townhouses

▪ Saadiyat Beach Residences: 495 1-4 bed apartments

Forthcoming residential developments within in the area include 83 units atJawaher Saadiyat and 29 plots at Saadiyat Beach Golf Views. By 2023,therefore, we forecast that the number of housing units will reach 1,479.

Units per Development 2019f 2023f

St Regis Residences 292 292

Saadiyat Beach Villas 580 580

Saadiyat Beach Residences 495 495

Jawaher Saadiyat 0 83

Saadiyat Beach Golf Views 0 29

Total Units 1,367 1,479


Households 2019f 2023f

Residential Units 1,367 1,479

Occupancy Rate % (e) 90 90

Households (e) 1,230 1,331

Household size (people per household) (e) 4.6 4.7

Population (e) 5,611 6,216 Apartments at St Regis

Demand Analysis

18

PRIMARY TRADE AREA: HOUSEHOLDS & POPULATION


Villa at St Regis Apartment buildings at St Regis

St Regis Residences comprises 259 apartments and 33 villas as part of the StRegis Saadiyat Island Resort.

The apartments consist of 46 studios, 56 one-bedroom apartments, 71 two-bedroom apartments, 57 three-bedroom apartments, 24 four-bedroomapartments and five penthouses. Rental prices in 2018 ranged from aroundAED105-110k for a studio, AED140-155k for a 1-bed, AED200-220k for a 2-bed and AED270-300k for a 3-bed apartment.

The 33 villas located around the perimeter of the complex are partly owned byprivate investors with 8 villas owned by ADUH. 4-bed properties for rent start ataround AED500k.

The population is around 600 people, with mainly ex-patriate couples andfamilies working in Abu Dhabi. Income bracket is upper-middle to upper income. St Regis masterplan

Demand Analysis

19



Saadiyat Beach Villas Saadiyat Beach Residences

Saadiyat Beach Villas and Saadiyat Beach Residences were originally developedby TDIC.

Saadiyat Beach Villas comprises 580 units of 3-6 bed villas and townhousesranging from 3,950 to 14,994 square feet. Rental prices start at AED300kranging up to AED600-700k.

Saadiyat Beach Residences comprises 495 units of 1-4 bed apartments. Rentalprices range from AED90-110k for a 1-bed, AED140-155k for a 2-bed andAED170-190k for a 3-bed.

The population is around 5,000 people, with mainly ex-patriate couples andfamilies working in Abu Dhabi. Income bracket is upper-middle to upper income.

Saadiyat Beach Villas masterplan

Demand Analysis

20



Saadiyat Beach Golf Views villas under construction Jawaher Saadiyat villas under construction

Forthcoming residential developments within in the area include 83 units atJawaher Saadiyat and 29 plots at Saadiyat Beach Golf Views.

Jawaher Saadiyat will comprise 4-6 bedroom villas as well as 4-bed townhousesin a gated community with kids playground and community centre.

The combined population of the two communities once matured is expected tobe in the region of 500-600.

Jawaher Saadiyat masterplan

21

To calculate the overall spending power of the residents within the primary tradearea that is relevant to the retail offering of the project, government data onconsumer spending totals and breakdown by category for Abu Dhabi, publishedin the Household Expenditure and Income Survey 2010, was taken into account.We have forecast the data forward through 2023 based on IMF forecasts foreconomic growth in the emirate.

We have also multiplied the Abu Dhabi average by a factor of 5 to take accountof the higher average household incomes of the island’s residents. Averagehousing rental on the island stood at around AED295,000 per annum in 2018.

Dining and entertainment spending are included in the category Recreation /Education. In line with regional benchmarks, we have estimated that around60% of this spending is on recreation, while 40% is on education. Miscellaneouscategory includes spending on personal goods and services (such as health andbeauty products, hairdressing, spa, etc) as well as financial services. In line withregional benchmarks, we have estimated that around 50% of this spending is onpersonal goods and services.

As such, average annual spending on retail, dining and entertainment byresidents of the primary trade area is expected to be AED385,351 in 2019,rising to AED444,054 by 2023.

Demand Analysis

PRIMARY TRADE AREA: HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE

Source: McARTHUR + COMPANY Analysis; SCAD

Annual Spending per PTA

Household (AED)2019f 2023f

Food * 151,844 170,072

Apparel * 89,810 100,592

Housing 305,540 321,478

Home * 48,146 53,925

Healthcare * 8,333 9,333

Transport /Comms 165,732 185,628

Recreation / Education * 89,810 121,332

Misc * 66,663 74,666

TOTAL 925,879 1,037,026

* Retail, Dining &

Entertainment385,351 444,054


Demand Analysis

22

PRIMARY TRADE AREA: TOTAL HOUSEHOLD RDE SPENDING

Multiplying the total number of households by the average household spendingon dining and entertainment yields the total expected spending within theproject’s catchment zone by residential households.

Household spending on retail, dining and entertainment within the PTA is thusexpected to reach AED474 million in 2019 rising to AED591 million by 2023.

Item Unit 2019 2023

Households # 1,230 1,331

Average Household Spending on Dining & Entertainment AED 385,351 444,054

Total Spending on Dining & Entertainment AED 474,096,943 591,080,920

Source: McARTHUR + COMPANY Analysis


23

Demand Analysis

PRIMARY TRADE AREA: HOUSEHOLD SPENDING CAPTURE RATE REQUIREMENT

Item Unit 2019f 2023f

A GLA AED 7,910 7,910

B Base Rent per sqm (AED) * % 1,435 1,522

C Base Rent Revenue AED 11,349,195 12,040,361

DSales Revenue Required

(at 15% rent-to-sales ratio)AED 75,661,300 80,269,073

E

Sales Revenue Required

from PTA Households (at

60% of total)

AED 45,396,780 48,161,444

FPTA RDE Spending

Potential

AED/

m²474,096,943 591,080,920

G Capture Rate Required m² 10 8

* Spend per Household per

monthAED 3,075 3.015

Source: McARTHUR + COMPANY Analysis. Note: * Indicative estimate only, subject to change

METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS:

A. As per the proposed space programme and new merchandise mix, the projectwill offer 7,910m² of gross leasable area (GLA) including the health club.

B. We estimate that the average stabilised base rent per square metre at theproject will be in the region of AED1,435 (including AED700 per sqm for thehealth club), rising slightly over time with rent increments.

C. At this rate, we calculate the total base rent revenues that the project wouldgenerate around AED11.4 million in 2019 and will reach AED12.0 million by2023(C = A x B).

D. Retailers generally need to keep rent payments to around 15% of sales inorder to operate comfortably, which gives a total sales turnover requirement ofAED76 million in 2019 in order to support the base rent revenue (D = C÷15%).

E. It is typical of a centre with positioning of the project that around 60-80% ofturnover is generated from customers from within the PTA. Assuming a figure of60%, the total turnover requirement from resident households of the primarytrade area would be AED45.4 million in 2019 (E = D x 70%).

F. We anticipate that the spending on RDE within the primary trade area (PTA)will be AED474 million in 2019 (see previous slide).

G. Therefore the project will need to capture around 10% of total RDE spendingby residents of the PTA (G = E÷ G).

The sales revenue potential of the project from PTA customers equates to aroundAED3,075 per household per month, which we consider an achievable target ifthe changes recommended in this report are implemented.

.


Demand Analysis

24

PRIMARY TRADE AREA: HOTEL GUESTS

We also expect the primary trade area of the project to include the hotel guestsof Saadiyat Island’s Saadiyat Beach district.

The number of hotel rooms available within the primary trade area is expected toreach 1,693 during 2019.

Several hotel projects have been proposed for beachfront plots within the tradearea (including Shangri-La, Hilton, Ritz-Carlton and Mandarin Oriental), althoughnone of these are currently under construction. The Ritz-Carlton, with 300 rooms,currently seems the most likely project to be re-activated and open by 2023.

The number of hotel guest nights within the PTA is expected to reach just over695,000.


Hotel Rooms 2019f 2023f

St Regis Saadiyat Island Resort 376 376

Jumeirah at Saadiyat Island Resort 293 293

Saadiyat Rotana Resort & Villas 340 340

Rixos Saadiyat Island Abu Dhabi Hotel 378 378

Park Hyatt Abu Dhabi Hotel & Villas 306 306

Ritz-Carlton Saadiyat Island - 300

Total Hotel Rooms 1,693 1,993

Hotel Guest Nights 2019f 2023f

Rooms 1,693 1,993

Occupancy (%) 75 75

Occupied Rooms (at 75% occupancy) 1,270 1,495

Guests per Night (est 1.5 guests per room) 1,905 2,242

Guest Nights (x 365 days) 695,188 818,376 St Regis Saadiyat Island Resort

Demand Analysis

A recent Mastercard survey found that international tourists spend an average ofAED3,000 per person during their visits to Abu Dhabi, of which around 24% isspent on dining and entertainment – equivalent to AED281 per visitor per day.We have forecast this figure forward with a CAGR of 3% over the 2018-2023period.

In addition to the city’s international visitors, Abu Dhabi receives many hotelguests from Dubai, Al Ain and other areas of the UAE. Spending data is, however,not available for UAE-based visitors, so we have applied the same dining andentertainment spending amount across all hotel guests.

Total potential dining and entertainment spending by hotel guests staying in thePrimary Trade Area of Saadiyat Island amounted, therefore, to an annualAED213 million in 2019, which is expected to rise to AED282 million by 2023(C1 = A1 x B1).

If we assume a target revenue potential from this group of customers of 20% ofthe project’s total, this equates to AED15.1 million in 2019 (B2 = A2 x 20%), or7% of total spending on retail, dining and entertainment by hotel guests stayingin the area (D2 = B2 / C3).

This spending is equivalent to 207 tourists per day spending an average ofAED200 each (E2 = C2 / A1 / 200).

25

PRIMARY TRADE AREA: HOTEL GUESTS

Total Hotel Guest RDE Spending Unit 2019 2023

A1 Hotel Guest Nights # 695,188 818,376

B1 Average Daily RDE Spending AED 307 345

C1 Total Hotel Guest RDE Spending AED 213,089,317 282,332,528

Source: McARTHUR + COMPANY Analysis; SCAD; Mastercard


Total Hotel Guest RDE Spending Unit 2019 2023

A2 Sales Revenue Required AED 75,661,300 80,269,073

B2Sales Revenue Required from Hotel

Guests (at 20% of the total)AED 15,132,260 16,053,815

C2 Total Hotel Guest RDE Spending AED 213,089,317 282,332,528

D2 Capture Rate Required % 7 6

E2* Hotel guest visitors per day,

spending AED200 each.AED 207 220

Demand Analysis

We expect the residents of the rest of Abu Dhabi, living outside the primary tradearea, to be occasional visitors to and customers of the project and form asecondary trade area (STA).

There are around 294,000 households in the rest of Abu Dhabi, which is forecastto rise to 319,792 by 2023.

If we assume a target revenue potential from this group of customers of 20% ofthe project’s total, this equates to AED15.1 million in 2019, or AED57 perhousehold per annum. Given the expected positioning of the project, it will likelyappeal to the higher income brackets of Emirati households and professionalnon-national households. As such a more revealing breakdown would be thatone in ten households visits the project once per year and spends AED515.

26

SECONDARY TRADE AREA: RESIDENTS OF THE REST OF ABU DHABI

Households Unit 2019 2023

Abu Dhabi City # 295,314 321,141

Primary Trade Area (PTA) # 1,248 1,349

Abu Dhabi City outside PTA # 294,066 319,792

Source: McARTHUR + COMPANY Analysis


Households Unit 2019 2023

Sales Revenue Required

from STA (at 20% of the

total)

AED 15,132,260 16,053,815

STA Households # 294,066 319,792

* Spend by every one in

STA households per annumAED 515 502

Mamsha al Saadiyat mixed-use development under construction

AED694 millionannual Retail, Dining and

Entertainment spending

potential

Demand Analysis

27

PRIMARY TRADE AREA SUMMARY - 2019

St Regis Retail Target Customers

695,000 guest nights at Saadiyat Beach resorts

per year

5,600 residentsin 1,200 upper income

households


st regis retail saadiyat - mcarthur + company · 2019-02-26 · site analysis location the...

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