s&t foresight studies in russia: current status and future ... · prospective market niches...

HIGHER SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS

National Research University

S&T Foresight studies in Russia: current status and future goals

Alexander Chulok

Head of S&T Foresight Department

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



Outline

2

1. Overview of Russian S&T Foresight activities

2. Problems and challenges of Russian Technology

Foresight system

3. Russian S&T Foresight 2030:

-Results

-Possible ways of use

4. Russian Technology Foresight System: future goals

Foresight in Russia: a Growing Scale

2006

National S&T Foresight 2025 - 1

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


2013

RF critical technologies

2006

RF critical technologies 2011

Regional strategies / clusters

Network of Foresight Centres


Development Institutions: Rusnano, Skolkovo

Programmes for innovation development for corporations

Technology platforms

Industrial strategies and programmes

Roadmaps Rapid growth of future-oriented research

1996 – 1997: Initiation of Foresight

Projects in Russia (HSE)

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4 2014 National Research University – Higher School of Economics

HSE S&T Foresight Studies: an Overview

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2006 2007

Critical technologies

S&T Foresight 2025 S&T Foresight 2030

STI priorities for natural resources

Foresight for nanoindustry markets

Foresight for ICT and mass-media

2030

STI priorities for Bashkortostan

STI priorities for Moscow

STI priorities for Samara

Tomsk innovation

infrastructure

STI priorities for Tula

Regional clusters

Roadmap for power engineering equipment

Sectoral roadmaps for new materials (space, aircraft, nuclear energy)

Roadmap for medicine & pharmaceutical industry

Roadmap for water purification

Roadmap for composite materials

Roadmaps for energy efficiency

Roadmaps for oil & gas sector: upstream & downstream

Roadmaps for technology platforms

Programmes of innovative development of state-owned companies: priorities, roadmaps, technology audit, et al.

Foresight for shipbuilding

Critical technologies

Software – Interaction with expert network

Online database on global technology trends

Software – Interactive technology roadmaps

Demand for future skills

Foresight for civil society

Federal level

Regional level

Sectoral and

corporate level

Foresight

infrastructure

1996 – 1997: Initiation of

Foresight projects in Russia

(HSE team)

Roadmap for space

navigation

S&T Foresight for aircraft

sector

Concept of a roadmap for automotive

industry: FCV Roadmap for LED manufacturing

National Research University – Higher School of Economics

Technology Foresight System:

Background

Priority areas of science, technology and engineering and the list of critical technologies of the Russian Federation are approved (PA and CT) (Presidential Decree of 21 May 2006 # Pr-842)

The Concept of the Russian Long-term S&T Foresight for the period up to 2025 is developed (in fulfillment of the order of the

Government of the Russian Federation of July 28, 2006 N MF-P7-3582)

Launch of Russian Long-term S&T Foresight till 2025 (2007-2008)

Launch of Russian Long-term S&T Foresight till 2030 (2009-2010 )

PA and CT are approved (Presidential Decree of July 7, 2011 № 899)

Update of Russian Long-term S&T Foresight till 2030 (2011-2013)

2011

2007

2009

2006

Launch of the build up of the national system of technology foresight (Presidential

Decree of May 7, 2012 № 596 "On the long-term national economic policies" (paragraph 2, sub-article "d" of article 2)

The adoption of the draft Federal Law "On state strategic planning“ by the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation in the first reading (Noveber 21, 2012)

Establishment of the Interdepartmental Committee on Technology Foresight (Minutes of the meeting of the Presidium of Presidential Council on economic modernisation and innovative development of Russia Number 1 on June 28, 2013)

2012 2013

A Foresight exercise for Russia’s science and

technology towards 2030 is due to be completed. It

highlights specific ways to both revitalise traditional

sectors and penetrate into new high-tech markets…

Presidential Address to the RF Federal

Assembly

12. 12. 2012

3

2014

Science and Technology Foresight of the Russian Federation towards 2030 approved

by D. Medvedev, Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, January 3, 2014

«The Foresight should serve as a basis for developing strategies and innovation

programs of major Russian companies ...»

D. Medvedev, The Meeting with Deputy Prime Ministers, January 20, 2014


S&T Foresight for Russian S&T and innovation

policy: integration to policy-making

S&T Foresight

•Evidence -based analysis •Integration of quantitative and qualitative methods •Prioritizing •Communication •Involving stakeholders •Integration to policy

Grand Challenges and Grand Responses

Demand for new skills

Policy mix

New economy

New consumers'

behavior

New instruments for

S&T policy

Changing society

Multidisciplinary and multicultural

research

Changing National

Innovation System

Enhancing Infrastructure, networks

6 National Research University – Higher School of Economics

• Imbalance of supply and demand of R&D results: business has no systemic vision of future technology scopes, scientists represent little demand for science

• Organization of Foresight: "spraying" of resources and, as a consequence, the problems of coherence and formation of a single unified document

• Lack of systemic coordination between key ministries and agencies

• The transition from thematic to problem-oriented priorities, taking into account the specific features of the institutional environment, groundwork, infrastructure

• Threat to Russia's position in traditional and emerging markets: global technological modernization, wide-spread use of radical products and technologies

• Integration into international forecasting systems, elimination of "white spots" in Russian S&T

• The need for systemic monitoring (global trends, new markets, etc.)

Key challenges and problems of the existing system of technology Foresight

7

Internal restrictions and barriers

External challenges and threats

• Need to develop a national expert system (a national expert status)

• Insufficient number of communication platforms to discuss the results of forecasts and Foresights

• Improving the culture of Foresight among the key players, lack of competences

Problems of networking and expert support


Russian S&T Foresight is aimed at identifying the most promising areas of S&T development in Russia towards 2030 to ensure the implementation of the nation’s competitive advantages.

Russian S&T Foresight 2030: the Methodology was Based

on a Combination of a Wide Range of Instruments

*S&T Foresight 2030 is designed across the priority areas of S&T in the Russian Federation (approved by Presidential Decree of 07.07.2011, no. 899)

Information and communication technologies

Life sciences (medicine & biotechnology)

New materials and nanotechnology

Rational use of natural resources

Transport and space systems

Energy efficiency and energy saving

S&T areas*

Global trends

Estimated effects

Challenges and windows of opportunity

Markets

Product groups

Prospective market niches

Thematic S&T areas

Global centres of excellence

Assessment of the R&D level in Russia

Priority tasks for R&D

Information base (more than 200 sources)

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Horizon scanning

Bibliometric and patent analyses

Wild cards and weak signals

Stakeholder mapping

In-depth interviews, focus groups

Expert panels

Quantitative and qualitative

results


Russian S&T Foresight 2030: the Results are

Useful for Science, Business, Government

Over 150 global

trends in the

economy, science,

politics and society

Effects and timelines

of maximal influence

of challenges and

windows of

opportunities

More than 1000

specified priority

tasks for applied

R&D

Characterising

over 80

prospective

markets и 250

product groups

•Regular high-level

expert panels •(over 50 leading national and

international researchers)

•Expert groups in

specific areas (over 800

representatives of science,

universities, companies)

•Expert surveys (over 1000 experts)

•International and

national conferences (over 40 events)

Priority thematic S&T areas Key sectors of the economy Validation


• Diffusion of production technologies based on molecular self-assembly (2022)

• Development of preventive medicine (2020) • Growth of demand for goods with principally new

qualities (2021)

Challenges Windows of opportunity • Spread of oncological and cardiovascular diseases

(2019) • Increase disease related to the aging population

(2025)

• Development of personailised medicine (2020) • Widespread use of "smart" drugs (2021)

• New interfaces: haptic sensors, 3D – printers, “smart” systems(2021)

• New paradigms of computational architecture (2025) • Transition to the economy based on knowledge (2030)

• Growing imbalance between security and personal freedom (2016-2018)

• Development of technologies for environmentally safe recycling and disposal of toxic substances (2019)

• Growth of shale oil and gas extraction, acceleration in the exploration of the Arctic (2027)

• Climate change (2023) • Spread of new environmental pollutants (2021) • Increase in the proportion of urban population (2023)

• Growth of global energy consumption (2023) • Development of new technologies to ensure the

safety of nuclear power plants (2022-2026)

• Stricter safety requirements in the energy sector (2021)

• Increasing costs of extraction of fuel energy resources (2023)

• Increased requirements for hardware elements of transport and space systems (2022)

• Strengthening environmental requirements and restrictions (2017)

• Transition to rocket engines based on new physical principles (2031)

• Growth of demand for space navigation and telecommunication services (2018)

• Technologies for wireless energy transmission (2042)

Foresight Allows to Assess the Influence of Global Trends on Russia

• A wide range of socio-economic and S&T challenges

Illustrative example


Global Trends Set up Challenges, Windows of

Opportunity and Threats for Russia (a Case for rational use of natural resources)

Challenges

Climate change,

intensification of dangerous

hydrometeorological

processes

Windows of opportunity

20152030

Spread of new

environmental pollutants

Increasing death-rates

and disease incidence

caused by air pollution

20152030

20152030

Growing number of

inhabitants under "water

stress" 20152030

20152030

Increase in the proportion

of the urban population

20152030

20152030

20152030

Development of technologies for

environmentally safe recycling

and disposal of toxic substances

Conducting complex

exploration of the Arctic

Creating super-computing

technologies and information

infrastructure

Widespread use of materials

with new properties and

technologies, "green"

construction 20152030

Development of methods of

forecasting hydrometeorological

processes 20152030

Threats

Adverse environmental conditions

Growth of production and

consumption waste and

accumulated environmental damage

Increase in the negative impact of

climate change

Lack of effective monitoring of

natural and technogenic disasters

Lack of markets for environmental

services

Low level of raw materials

extraction in the development of

hydrocarbon deposits

Inadequate quantity and low

efficiency of geologic explorations

20152030 - distribution of expert assessments related to timing of maximum effect of challenges and windows of opportunity


Weak Signals and Wild Cards (Examples)

Health and human enhancement

Weak signals

Economy, new

production,

infrastructure

Society

Energy,

environment

Wild cards

Total satellite failure will cause mayhem in

transportation, communication and information systems

Technologies of cost-effective thermonuclear fusion

will be developed

Mini nuclear reactors will be used to meet the energy

needs of industry and dwellings, thus long and costly

energy distribution networks will become obsolete

Justice, legislation, execution services will be

conducted with the use of crowdsourcing technologies

Sharp decrease of privacy immunity

Advancements in biotechnology will stop physical

and mental aging

Due to several new techniques, it’ll be possible to

“manufacture” and “replace” any body part on demand

New, previously unknown diseases will emerge

3D printing technologies will change the nature of

production

Increase in the computing power will result with the

emergence of self-ruling machines, production and

communication systems

New technologies will make access to clean water

possible all around the world

New, economically advantageous energy sources

(hydrogen fuel cells, and others) will be widely used

Technologies will be developed developed to control

and reverse climate change

Universities will be gradually replaced by internet-

based online education and training programmes

Impossibility of ensuring information confidentiality

Advanced surveillance systems will allow the

detection of criminals before they start acting

Brain will be endued with infinite memory and great

computing capabilities

Computer systems will leave humans behind in

intellectual development

Gene therapy will enable the cure of illnesses before

birth


Radical products and services – R&D outcomes

2015 2020 2025 2030 2015 2020 2025 2030

Metacomputing “Smart” businesses

“Smart” infrastructures

Cloud solutions

“Internet of things”

Devices for monitoring the current state of the body

Bioelectronic interfaces

Drug delivery systems

Biocompatible materials

Nanostructured composite materials

with special properties

Emitters based on nano-

heterostructures

Electronic elements based on graphene, fullerenes, carbon

nanotubes, quantum dots

Memristor-based electronic elements

Monitoring of environment,

assessment and forecasting of

natural and technogenic emergencies

Liquefied natural gas

Fuel cells

High capacity electrochemical energy storages “Smart” networks

Nano

Molecular self-assembly and self-

organisation of nanomechanical

systems

Technologies and materials for 3D printing

Augmented reality

Illustrative example


Medicine and

health

Molecular diagnostics for prophylactic

and personalised medicine

Exploration, development and research of

promising drug candidates by assigning

molecular pharmacological targets

Biodegradable and composite

medical materials

Bioelectrodynamics

and X-ray medicine

Human proteomics

Transport and

space systems

Energy efficiency and

power saving

Environment

management

Information and

telecommunication

systems

New materials

and

nanotechnology

Functional

materials

Hybrid materials and

convergent technologies

Construction

materials

Computer modelling

of materials and

processes

Materials

diagnostics

Information

processing

technologies

Computer

architectures and

systems

Telecommunication

technologies

Component base,

electronic

devices, robotics

Promising technologies for

environment monitoring and

assessment, and forecasting of

natural and anthropogenic

emergencies

Environment

preservation and

safety technologies

Exploration, prospecting and

integrated use of mineral and

hydrocarbon resources

Development of

integrated

transport

environment

Increasing transport

systems’ safety and

environmental properties

Intelligent energy

systems of the future

Modelling promising

energy technologies

and systems

Promising

energy

technologies

Efficient use of

power

Predictive modelling,

techniques and tools for

developing and maintaining

promising systems

Information

securityAlgorithms and

software

Biotechnology

Agribiotechnologies

Forest biotechnologies

Industrial

biotechnologies

Development of

methodologies for

biotech research

Environmental

biotechnologies

Food production

biotechnologies

Aquabioculture

Human genome

description for

prophylactic and

personalised

medicine

Technologies,

prototypes and stands

for developing

promising transport

and space systems

Exploration and

utilisation of

oceanic, Arctic and

Antarctic resources

New materials and

catalysts for power

engineering of the

future

Biomedical

cellular

technologies

Major S&T Areas for the Future


Materials for organic LEDs, flexible solar cells, displays

and light storages

Fluorescent materials activated with ions of rear earth and transition metals

Light emitting nanostructures

Nanostructured liquid crystal materials

Heat proof materials

Radiation proof materials

Intellectual and tuned construction

materials

Construction and functional

materials

Diagnostics of materials

Hybrid materials, convergent

technologies, biomimetic

materials and medical supplies

New materials

and nanotechnol

ogies

Computer modeling of materials and

processes

Материалы с особыми

оптическими свойствами

High-strength materials

Wear and tear proof materials

Materials with specific

electromagnetic properties

Anticorrosion materials

Catalysts

Sensor materials

Binding materials

Membranes

Coatings changing light absorption under external

influence

Priority S&T areas split into detailed R&D tasks (a case of new materials and nanotechnologies)

Nanostrructured optical fibers and LEDs

15

1. Priority S&T areas 2. Thematic fields 3. Applied R&D 4. Priority R&D tasks


Priority areas of S&T

Thematic S&T areas

Priority R&D tasks Publications in peer-reviewed journals

Research fronts

Discovery of fast-growing areas Benchmarking against global leaders

- Global centres of excellence in S&T - National centres of competence

Benchmarking the Level of R&D in Russia

Against the Global Leaders

White spots

Groundwork

Parity Word leader


Opportunities for Using Foresight Results to

Form STI Policy Measures

Trends and challenges

Markets

Products, services

R&D priorities

Recommendations

Foresight

results

Development institutions

Government

Research institutions

Companies

Universities Society

Development of a

research agenda

Integration into global

research space

Search for «objective» criteria to select priorities for state support

«Fine tuning» of the existing instruments and build up of a line of new ones

Involvement of business and society

Openness, availability and practical relevance of foresight results

Elimination of interdepartmental barriers

Development of long-term

strategies and plans

Technological modernisation

Integration into global value

chains

Development of

educational programmes

Development of a

research agenda

Build up of a development

strategy Development of innovative environment

Communication platforms

Joint projects and initiatives

New behavioral

models

Change of the

consumer preferences


Russian S&T Foresight 2030: Deliverables and Outputs

were Used to Develop Strategic Documents

Documents Implemented Foresight outputs

Long-term Forecast of Socio-economic Development of Russia until 2030 (ratified by the Government of the Russian

Federation 25.03.2013)

Global trends of technology development (section 2.2)

Variants of S&T development (section 5)

State Programme “Development of Science and Technology” for 2013-2020 (ratified by the decree of the

Government of the Russian Federation on 20.12.2012 # 2433-р) The list of thematic areas to finance basic and applied research in priority S&T areas (Appendix 1)

Sectoral Foresight studies and roadmaps (space navigation; aircraft; shipbuilding; petrochemistry; biotechnology and gene engineering; composite materials; etc.)

Global and national trends of socio-economic and S&T development

Characterisation of prospective markets and innovative products and services

Priority S&T areas

Recommendations on S&T policy measures

Strategies and programmes for companies, regional innovative clusters, and technological platforms


Results of Russian S&T Foresight 2030 were Used for

ERANet RUS Project

Global trends in the

economy, science, politics

and society

Effects and timelines for

challenges and windows

of opportunities

Specified priority

tasks for applied R&D

Expert Networks

Prospective markets and

product groups

Policy

recommendations

S&T Foresight 2030 ERANet RUS

Scenarios

Societal challenges

Promising thematic fields

Promising thematic areas

Technology roadmap

Policy seminars

Delphi Survey


Communication, Validation and Dissemination

of the Results of Russian S&T Foresight 2030

•International and national conferences on Foresight and long-term forecasting

•Annual meetings of HSE International Advisory Board on Foresight (2011-2013)

•Academic seminars and workshops (regular seminar on «Foresight theory and practice»)

•Consultations with key stakeholders

•Presentations for technological platforms, innovative regional clusters, companies, and public bodies

•Reports at the sites of federal executive bodies, development institutions, business and industry associations

•Publication of materials on the website devoted to long-term Foresight www.prognoz2030.hse.ru

Communication platforms

Key ministries International organisations and

associations

Development institutions and associations


http://www.prognoz2030.hse.ru/

21 21 21

Dissemination of S&T Foresight results

Websites

Book series

Foresight-Russia

journal Leaflets

Analytical

reports


Technology Foresight System:

Objectives and Outcomes

• Coordination and methodological support of the federal executive bodies and other interested parties in Foresight exercise

• Development of communication platforms for the discussion and implementation of Foresight results

• Improvement of the methodology and the development of unified standards of work

• Creation of a single public database of Foresight materials

• Support and development of the national expert system for technology Foresight (including sectoral S&T Foresight centers)

Tasks for the Interdepartmental Committee on Technology Foresight

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• Russian Long-term S&T Foresight

• Priority areas of science, technology and engineering and the list of critical technologies of the Russian Federation

• Long-term foresights for each industry

• Critical technologies for each industry

• Roadmaps for sectors of economy and corresponding S&T development trajectories

• System for monitoring S&T development

• Proposals on the use of the Foresight system results in strategic documents of state planning

Outcomes of the technology Foresight system

22


Effective Long-term STI Policy: Basic Principles within the Technology Foresight System

23

Focusing on the full range of the most important problems of socio-economic development The transition from the forecast of supply (opportunities) of science to the forecast of innovative markets and the demand for S&T Expanding scopes for research (2040 and further) Variability of scenarios for long-term development Coverage of the entire innovation cycle (from basic research to commercial use) The focus on the most promising breakthroughs, including interdisciplinary S&T fields Development of the system of technology Foresight as a platform for the formation of science, technology and innovation policy

Grand Challenges S&T Responses

There is need to develop a common methodology that links forecasts (Foresight), and measures to realise the priorities (roadmaps) for the formation of a coherent vision of the long-term prospects for the key players to achieve sustainable growth of economic competitiveness National Research University – Higher School of Economics

Build up of a Organisational Structure for

Technology Foresight System

The Presidential Council on economic modernisation and innovative development of Russia

Research and methodological centre (HSE)

Sustainable expert network

Leading universities, research institutions, companies (including those with government participation), small and medium-sized innovative enterprises, development institutions, research foundations, international organisations

Ministry of Economic Development

Other relevant ministries and agencies

Ministry of Education and Science

Interdepartmental Committee on

Technology Foresight

International Advisory Board

OECD

UNIDO

EU Institute for Prospective Technological Studies

University of Manchester

GeorgiaTech

Fraunhofer ISI

and others

Development of a common methodology

Scientific, methodological and

organizational support of key

projects

Systematic and systemic

monitoring of global trends and

challenges, promising markets, radical products and technologies

Monitoring the level of technological

development key economy sectors

Benchmarking the level of domestic

technological base in comparison with the best foreign analogues

Support a network of experts and

validation results within the expert community

Development of technology roadmaps


Expert Networks for the System of Technology

Foresight

Over 200 organisations About 2000 experts Over 15 countries


S&T Foresights Should be Strongly Plugged in

the System of Strategic Planning Documents

Federal Level Forecasts of socio-economic development of Russia for the medium and long term Strategic forecasting of socio-economic development risks and national security threats of the Russian Federation Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation Main directions of activities of the Government of the Russian Federation for the medium term

Regional Level Forecasts of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation in the long and medium term Development programmes for innovative regional clusters

Technology Foresight

Russian Long-Term S&T Foresight Priority areas and critical technologies Cross-sectoral roadmaps

Industry Level State programmes of the Russian Federation Sectoral documents of state strategic planning, industrial critical technologies Strategic research agenda for technological platforms Programmes of innovative development for companies with state participation


Implementation of Results into Decision Making:

Development of Technology Roadmaps

Challenges

R&D

Products

Technologies

Foresight Roadmaps (routs)

Complex projects (actions)

Strategies for technology

development

Strategies to enter the market State programmes

Markets

Optimal trajectories to reach the aims

• Research

• Technological development

• Technology imports

• Human resources, competencies

• Infrastructure

• Government policy measures

S&T/R&D programmes

Pri

ori

ties

t


Critical technologies (priorities)

Critical Technologies of the Russian Federation

•Thematic areas

•State of Russian

R&D

•Evaluation of

industrial potential

•Characteristics of

markets, innovative

products

•Support

programmes

Industry critical technologies

Отраслевые форсайты

Thank You!

Alexander Chulok

[email protected]


