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    Jensen alpha and market climate *

    Bernhard Breloer 1

    Friedrich-Alexander-Universitt (FAU) Erlangen-Nrnberg

    Hendrik Scholz 2

    Friedrich-Alexander-Universitt (FAU) Erlangen-Nrnberg

    This Version: March 17, 2014

    1 Bernhard Breloer, Friedrich-Alexander-Universitt (FAU) Erlangen-Nrnberg, Chair of Financeand Banking, Lange Gasse 20, 90403 Nrnberg, Germany, phone: +49 911 5302 429, fax: +49 911

    530 2466, e-mail: [email protected] Hendrik Scholz, Friedrich-Alexander-Universitt (FAU) Erlangen-Nrnberg, Chair of Finance and

    Banking, Lange Gasse 20, 90403 Nrnberg, Germany, phone: +49 911 5302 649, fax: +49 911 5302466, e-mail: [email protected].

    * We are grateful to participants of the CFR Research Seminar of the University of Cologne 2008; theSWFA Annual Meeting 2008, Houston; the EFA Annual Meeting 2008, St. Pete Beach; the 2008FMA Annual Meeting, Dallas; the Annual Meeting of the German Finance Association 2008,Mnster; the Annual Meeting of the German Academic Association for Business Research 2009,

    Nrnberg; the Southern Finance Association Annual Meeting 2009, Captiva Island; and, especiallyto Oliver Entrop, Alexander Kempf, Peter Lckoff, Oliver Schnusenberg, John Stowe, MarcoWilkens and Wenjuan Xie for helpful comments and suggestions on earlier drafts of this paper

    previously titled Ranking of equity mutual funds: The bias in using survivorship bias-free

    datasets. We are responsible for any remaining errors.

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    Jensen alpha and market climate

    Abstract

    This paper studies the impact of market climate on the classic Jensen alpha (JA) of

    funds. We show analytically that the one-factor JA of a fund consists of i) the funds

    alpha based on the assumed multi-factor model and ii) further components that are

    subject to market phases of factor realization. To account for this impact of market

    phases in the performance evaluation of funds, we apply a time period-adjusted JA.

    In our empirical study, we analyze JAs and respective fund rankings for a

    survivorship bias-free data set of 3.102 US equity mutual funds. Our results show that

    factor realizations during the specific lifetime of a fund clearly affect its rank

    position. This impact is particularly strong for funds with shorter lifetimes. Using the

    time period-adjusted JA clearly reduces this impact. Our main results are robust when

    applying alternative multi-factor models as a return generating process.

    Keywords : Equity mutual funds; Jensen alpha; Fund ranking; Market conditions

    JEL Classification : G11

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    1. Introduction

    When evaluating the performance of equity funds, private and institutional investors

    frequently compare fund performance to appropriate benchmarks. Moreover, fund

    managers regularly present their performance with a comparison to benchmarks, e.g.,

    in the fund prospectus. In this context, the CAPM-based one-factor Jensen alpha

    (Jensen, 1968) measures the funds risk-adjusted return, accounting for its systematic

    risk exposure related to a selected benchmark. Even today, the classic Jensen alpha

    (JA) is still one of the most widely used performance measures (Aragon and Ferson,

    2006; Goetzmann et al., 2007). Moreover, it is presented in many finance textbooks

    (e.g., Elton et al., 2009; Bodie et al., 2011).

    The academic literature suggests that beyond systematic risk, several anomalies in

    stock returns should be considered when explaining fund returns. For example, Banz

    (1981) describes a size anomaly indicating that small-cap stocks exhibit relatively

    high returns. Likewise, Fama and French (1992) discover relatively high returns

    among stocks with high book equity to market equity ratios. Consequently, Fama and

    French (1993) introduced a three-factor model which contains a size and a value

    factor next to the market factor. Then, Carhart (1997) added a momentum factor to the

    Fama and French three-factor model based on findings of Jegadeesh and Titman

    (1993). Until now, the four-factor alpha of the Carhart model has been regularly

    applied in the academic literature when evaluating the performance of equity funds.

    However, using the one-factor JA can be justified for several reasons. For example,

    one could simply neglect potential factors like size, value or momentum factors in

    performance models, as these lack a thorough theoretical foundation, e.g., in the

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    context of an equilibrium model such as the CAPM. Moreover, the average investor

    could consider fund returns due to exposures to size, value and momentum factors as

    the success of the fund manager, since the investor herself might be unwilling or

    unable to implement such trading strategies. Furthermore, Berkowitz and Kotowitz

    (2000) and Del Guercio and Tkac (2002) document evidence for a positive

    relationship between JAs and fund flows of US equity funds. Similarly, for Australian

    funds Gharghori et al. (2007) find that fund inflows are driven by risk-adjusted

    performance, e.g., measured based on JA. On a broader international basis, Ferreira et

    al. (2012) confirm a respective positive relationship. These findings indicate the

    relevance of JA with respect to evaluating fund performance.

    In our analytical study, for the sake of simplicity, we first assume fund returns to

    be driven by Carharts (1997) four-factor model. Our first objective is to reveal the

    relationship between the one-factor JA and the Carhart four-factor alpha. Based on an

    approach outlined in Pastor and Stambaugh (2002), the JA of a fund consists of two

    components, these being i) the funds four-factor alpha and ii) the products of the

    funds factor exposures to the size, value and momentum factor and the respective

    factor alphas. The latter represent the intercepts of regressions of the respective factor

    returns on the market factor. On this basis, we show analytically what drives the

    difference between a funds JA and its four-factor alpha and discuss how this

    difference may impact fund rankings based on these measures.

    In a similar context, Krimm et al. (2012) investigate the performance of US equity

    mutual funds based on the Sharpe ratio (Sharpe, 1966, 1994). They document that the

    Sharpe ratio depends on the market climate of factor realizations. They thus suggest

    the use of a normalized Sharpe ratio (Scholz, 2007) to avoid biased rankings of equity

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    funds. Likewise, the classic JA can be subject to market phases of realizations of the

    size, the value and the momentum factor.

    In the context of evaluating fund performance, empirical studies commonly rely on

    survivorship bias-free data to overcome a potential survivorship bias (see, e.g.,

    Grinblatt and Titman, 1989; Brown and Goetzman, 1995; Malkiel, 1995; Elton et al.,

    1996; Carhart et al., 2002; Rohleder et al., 2011). Including both full-data funds and

    non-full-data funds results in datasets with different lengths of fund return history. In

    turn, unequal lifetimes of funds can lead to biased performance evaluations, since

    these funds are exposed differently to market phases of factor realizations.

    Against this background, our second objective is to investigate empirically the JAs

    of actual equity funds that are exposed to market phases of factor realizations. First,

    we document the impact of market climate on the JAs of funds and on respective fund

    rankings. Second, to avoid a biased performance evaluation, we adjust the factoralphas of funds if necessary. In detail, we determine the JAs the funds would have

    shown if they had existed during the full evaluation period. Differences in these time

    period-adjusted JAs of funds are mainly due to fund-specific characteristics, but not to

    the different lifetimes of funds. Before this adjustment, we find that funds with shorter

    lifetimes are more strongly affected by the market phases of factor realizations. This

    is reflected by larger differences between adjusted JAs and classic JAs for these

    funds.

    To test the robustness of our approach, we apply alternative multi-factor models in

    this context and find high correlations between adjusted JAs based on these models

    and adjusted JAs based on the Carhart model. Thus the choice of the respective multi-

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    factor model used to explain fund returns does not seem to severely impact our

    empirical results.

    The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the applied

    performance measures and the methodology for time period adjustments of the JA.

    Section 3 presents the fund sample used as well as our empirical results explaining the

    relationship between JA, lifetime of funds and market phases of factor realizations.

    After applying the time period adjustment of the Jensen alpha, we investigate the

    difference between adjusted JAs and the classic JAs and its impacts on respective

    fund rankings. Finally, Section 4 concludes.

    2. Jensen alpha and the market phases of factor alphas

    In this study, we investigate how market phases of factor realizations impact the JA.

    The classic one-factor JA of fund i is determined by regressing its monthly return in

    excess of the risk free rate ER it on the monthly market excess return ERM t ,

    ER it = i1F + i

    1F ERM t + i t , (1)

    where the funds JA is the constant term i1F in Equation (1), and i

    1F denotes the

    funds systematic risk.

    As a second measure, we apply the four-factor alpha according to the Carhart

    (1997) model, which additionally includes a size factor SMB, a value factor HML and

    a momentum factor MOM to Equation (1),

    ER it = i4F + 1 i

    4F ERM t + 2i 4F SMBt + 3 i

    4F HML t + 4 i 4F MOM t + i t , (2)

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    where the funds four-factor alpha is the constant term i4F and the exposures to the

    factors ERM, SMB, HML and MOM are represented by 1 i 4F , 2 i

    4F , 3 i 4F and 4 i

    4F ,

    respectively. In the following, for the sake of simplicity, we first assume Carharts

    four-factor model to be the return generating process of funds, which accounts for

    potential investment opportunities represented by the factors SMB, HML and MOM.

    Omitting SMB, HML and MOM in the one-factor regression model can lead to

    potential differences between the JA and the four-factor alpha of a fund. To display

    these differences, we now apply an approach outlined in Pastor and Stambaugh

    (2002). According to Equation (1), we first regress each of the factors SMB, HML

    and MOM on the market excess return ERM.

    SMBt = smb1F + smb

    1F ERM t + smb t (3)

    HML t = hml 1F

    + hml 1F

    ERM t + hml t (4)

    MOM t = mom1F + mom1F ERM t + mom t (5)

    We call the intercepts of these regressions factor alphas ( smb1F , hml

    1F and mom1F ). For

    each fund, these factor alphas are estimated based on an evaluation period according

    to the fund-specific lifetime. Thus factor alphas of funds differ when the funds exhibit

    different lifetimes.

    Next, we substitute SMBt , HML t and MOM t in Equation (2) on the right hand side

    of Equations (3) to (5), which reveals - after some rearrangement - the components of

    the one-factor JA as follows:

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    i1F = i

    4F + 2 i 4F smb

    1F + 3 i 4F hml

    1F + 4 i 4F mom1F (6)

    Accordingly, the JA of a fund i consists of its four-factor alpha and the sum of the

    fund-specific factor contributions of SMB, HML and MOM. For example, the

    contribution of the SMB factor equals the funds exposure to the SMB factor times

    the SMB factor alpha.

    Importantly, while a funds factor exposures on SMB, HML and MOM depend on

    its investment style, factor alphas are not identical across funds with regard to fund-

    specific lifetimes and hence are sensitive to market climate. Therefore, two funds with

    identical four-factor alphas and identical factor exposures to SMB, HML and MOM,

    but different lifetimes, may have different JAs due to different fund-specific factor

    alphas. In turn, evaluating the performance of funds with different lifetimes can result

    in a biased JA comparison, e.g., a biased JA fund ranking.

    Thus to appropriately compare the performance of funds based on JA, we treat

    funds as if they are exposed to the same market phases of the respective factors, i.e.,

    to the same factor alphas. Hence we adjust the JA of each fund i by replacing the

    fund-specific factor alphas in Equation (6) by full-period factor alphas smb1F_FP , hml

    1F_FP

    and mom1F_FP each estimated over the full evaluation period. 1

    i1F_adj = i

    4F + 2 i 4F smb

    1F_FP + 3 i 4F hml

    1F_FP + 4 i 4F mom

    1F_FP (7)

    where i1F_adj represents the time period-adjusted JA of fund i.

    1 Alternatively, even longer time periods could be considered to estimate normal factor alphas that

    contain no market climate impact (compare, e.g., Pastor and Stambaugh, 2002; Krimm et al., 2012).

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    By subtracting Equation (6) from Equation (7), the adjusted JA of fund i equals its

    classic JA plus the sum of differences between full-period adjusted and original factor

    contributions of the fund.

    i1F_adj = i

    1F + 2 i 4F smb

    1F_FP smb1F + 3 i

    4F hml 1F_FP hml

    1F + 4 i 4F ( mom

    1F_FP mom1F (8)

    According to Equation (8), the adjusted JA is lower than the classic JA, if the sum of

    differences between the full-period adjusted and original factor contributions is

    negative and vice versa.

    3. Empirical analysis

    3.1 Data and summary statistics

    As the source of fund data, we use the mutual fund database from the Center for

    Research in Securities Prices (CRSP). We select U.S. domestic equity mutual funds

    for an evaluation period from January 1996 to December 2009. 2 From this sample, we

    eliminate funds with the description of ETF, Index, Long-Short, Alpha-Only, Fixed

    Income, Retirement, Variable Insurance or Target in their names (compare, e.g.,

    Comer et al., 2009; Amihud and Goyenko, 2013; Breloer et al., 2014). If a fund offers

    multiple share classes, we select the oldest one. For the remaining funds we extract

    monthly returns. Moreover, we require funds to exhibit at least 36 months of

    continuous monthly returns. To avoid data-errors and outliers, we eliminate all funds

    with fragmentary return histories and with implausible monthly returns greater than

    2 We choose funds with the following Lipper objective codes: Capital appreciation funds (CA), equityincome funds (EI), growth funds (G), growth and income funds (GI), mid-cap funds (MC), and

    small-cap funds (SG). For fund selection, we rely on the most recent objective code.

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    100 percent or less than 100 percent. Our final data set contains 3,102 domestic

    equity funds.

    Table 1 shows the total yearly number of funds as well as the number of annual

    fund starts and disappearances. 3 Basically, we find that the number of funds almost

    continuously increases, peaking at the end of 2006 (2,283 funds). Since 1999, funds

    disappear from our sample while new funds enter. Thus the lifetimes of funds in our

    fund sample differ.

    Insert Table 1 about here

    To account for different lifetimes of funds, we divide our fund sample as follows.

    The first subsample contains those funds that exist throughout the full evaluation

    period, so called full-data funds (FD funds). The remaining non-full-data funds

    are sorted into three subsamples based on the length of their return histories: a long

    lifetime sample (LLT funds), a medium lifetime sample (MLT funds) and a short

    lifetime sample (SLT funds). In total, we count 638 FD funds, 829 LLT funds, 819

    MLT funds and 816 SLT funds. On average, FD (LLT, MLT, SLT) funds have a

    lifetime of 168 (136, 88, 51) months.

    In this context, Figure 1 shows the monthly number of funds in our subsamples.

    The number of LLT funds increases until the end of 2000, remains on the same level

    until the start of 2005 (829 funds) and decreases thereafter. MLT funds show a similar

    pattern. That is, most MLT funds exist from December 2000 to December 2004

    (about 570 funds on average). In contrast, SLT funds exhibit a relatively high number

    of funds during the last third of the evaluation period. On average, we count about 170

    3 Since each fund has at least 36 months of monthly returns, no funds disappear in the first three years

    and no new funds start after January 2007.

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    SLT funds from December 1996 to December 2004, while more than 350 SLT funds

    exist from January 2005 to December 2009.

    Insert Figure 1 about here

    To analyze the performance of our funds, we use monthly excess returns of the

    market ERM and the factors SMB, HML and MOM. 4 Table 2 presents descriptive

    statistics for the four factors and factor alphas according to Equations (3) to (5). The

    factors ERM, SMB, HML and MOM exhibit positive but not statistically significant

    monthly means measuring 0.38, 0.26, 0.35 and 0.44, respectively. Similar, monthly

    factor alphas of SMB, HML and MOM are positive but statistically not significant,

    measuring 0.192, 0.428 and 0.596, respectively. Moreover, the four factors exhibit

    low correlations, measuring between 0.39 and 0.23, which is also reflected by low

    variance inflation factors (VIF) of about 1.3. Thus, multicollinearity should not be a

    concern.

    Insert Table 2 about here

    Focusing on the variation of factor alphas over time, Figure 2 shows the SMB,

    HML and MOM factor alphas based on a 12-month rolling window. In general,

    monthly factor alphas vary largely. For example, the SMB factor alpha is often

    negative during the period from 1996 to 1999, but shows large fluctuations.

    Conversely, from 2000 to 2004 it is mostly positive, exhibiting lower variability.

    Similarly, the HML and MOM factor alphas clearly show variations over time.

    Insert Figure 2 about here

    4 The monthly factor and T-bill returns are downloadable from Kenneth Frenchs website(http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html), which also contains

    information about the factor construction.

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    To illustrate the variation in factor alphas during the individual lifetimes of our

    non-full-data funds, Figure 3 shows absolute frequencies of factor alphas for our

    subsamples of LLT, MLT and SLT funds. In addition, the bold vertical lines indicate

    the respective full-period factor alphas of SMB, HML and MOM. Referring to LLT

    funds in Panel A, their factor alphas vary only slightly with respect to full-period

    factor alphas. Particularly, SMB and HML factor alphas of LLT funds are exclusively

    positive. In comparison, factor alphas of SLT funds in Panel C vary clearly around

    full-period factor alphas. Thus, SLT funds exhibit larger shares of negative SMB and

    MOM factor alphas as well as relatively high positive SMB and MOM factor alphas.

    Figure 3 about here

    Against the background of these findings, we expect these differences in factor

    alphas to impact JA fund rankings. In the next Section 3.2, we therefore investigate

    the relationship between JAs, lifetime of funds and factor contributions.

    3.2 Jensen alpha, four-factor alphas and factor contributions

    We now take a closer look at descriptive statistics and factor alphas for our fund

    subsamples. Table 3 shows average JAs, alphas and betas of the four-factor model and

    corresponding standard deviations for the cross-sections of FD, SLT, MLT and LLT

    funds. In addition, the average factor alphas for each fund subsample are presented.

    Focusing on the FD fund sample in Panel A, JAs are positive on average, measuring

    0.025%, while four-factor alphas are negative, measuring 0.045%. Furthermore, the

    cross-sectional standard deviation of JAs is higher than that of four-factor alphas.

    Noteworthy is the difference between JAs and four-factor alphas of FD funds, which

    is driven solely by variation in the funds factor exposures, as the factor alphas of all

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    FD funds coincide with the full-period factor alphas. Hence, based on Equation (6),

    funds with exclusively negative factor exposures exhibit higher four-factor alphas and

    vice versa given the positive SMB, HML and MOM factor alphas during the lifetime

    of FD funds.

    Focusing on LLT, MLT and SLT funds, in Panel B, C and D we observe lower

    four-factor alphas compared to FD funds. Given the disappearance of many funds,

    particularly in the SLT fund subsample, the relatively high performance of FD funds

    could be due to a survivorship bias (see, among others, Brown and Goetzman, 1995;

    Elton et al., 1996; Rohleder et al., 2011). Furthermore, these subsamples exhibit

    higher cross-sectional standard deviations of four-factor alphas compared to FD

    funds.

    In contrast to FD funds, the difference between JAs and four-factor alphas of LLT,

    MLT and SLT funds is not only driven by the variation in fund-specific factorexposures, but also by different factor alphas during the funds lifetimes. While the

    average factor exposures of all four subsamples are similar, cross-sectional means and

    standard deviations of factor alphas based on funds lifetimes differ considerably

    among the subsamples (see also Figure 3). For example, the SMB factor alphas of

    LLT funds show a mean and a standard deviation of 0.318% and 0.145%,

    respectively, while for SLT funds these numbers are 0.246% and 0.436%,

    respectively. Thus, the JAs of SLT funds tend to be more affected by variations in the

    SMB factor alphas. We have similar findings regarding HML and MOM factor

    alphas.

    Insert Table 3 about here

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    While the factor exposures of our fund subsamples tend to be similar on average,

    their factor alphas clearly differ. These should be reflected in variations in the

    corresponding factor contributions to the JA. Thus we now focus on the relationship

    between JAs and four-factor alphas with respect to factor contributions as outlined in

    Equation (6). Positive factor contributions result in higher JAs compared to the four-

    factor alphas and vice versa. As the majority of funds exist during positive market

    phases of factor alphas, the sign of factor contributions is mostly affected by the sign

    of the funds factor exposures. Therefore, we first split each fund subsample, based on

    the sign of the funds SMB exposures, into a positive and a negative SMB exposure

    group. Similarly, we group funds with respect to their HML and MOM exposures for

    each subsample. Table 4 reports the cross-sectional averages of JAs, four-factor

    alphas and corresponding factor contributions for our four subsamples in Panels A

    to D.

    In Panel A of Table 4, we observe that FD funds with positive SMB exposures

    exhibit an average JA of 0.078%. Therefore, in line with Equation (6) and our

    expectations, JAs mainly corresponds to the sum of the four-factor alphas of 0.036%

    and the positive SMB factor contribution of 0.071%. Additionally, positive HML and

    MOM factor contributions further increase the positive difference between the

    average JA and four-factor alpha for this fund group. While we expect opposite

    results for FD funds with negative SMB exposure, on average, these funds exhibit a

    slightly higher JA (0.044%) than four-factor alpha (0.056%). Here, the negative

    SMB factor contribution of 0.024% is more than compensated by the positive HML

    factor contribution of 0.047%, resulting in an overall positive factor contribution.

    Findings for the FD funds group with positive (negative) HML exposures reveal that,

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    on average, the positive (negative) HML factor contribution results in a higher (lower)

    JA compared to the four-factor alpha. In contrast, FD funds with negative MOM

    exposure show a higher JA compared to the four-factor alpha, as the negative MOM

    factor contribution is overcompensated by a positive HML factor contribution.

    Since the lifetimes of non-full-data funds differ, in Panels B to D we now also

    account for variations in factor alphas. That is, we further sort funds in each non-full-

    data subsample into fund groups with high or with low SMB factor alphas. If the

    SMB factor alpha during the fund-specific lifetimes is higher (lower) than the full-

    period SMB factor alpha, the fund is sorted into the high (low) SMB factor alpha

    group. In Panel B of Table 4, we observe for LLT funds in the high SMB factor alpha

    group that funds with positive SMB exposures show, as expected, average JAs higher

    than corresponding four-factor alphas. This positive difference is largely driven by a

    positive SMB factor contribution. In contrast, funds with negative SMB exposure

    exhibit lower JAs than corresponding four-factor alphas, as expected, mainly due to

    negative SMB factor contributions. Furthermore, we observe comparable findings for

    funds in the low SMB factor alpha group as well as for respective groups of funds

    based on HML and MOM factor alphas and corresponding exposures. Moreover,

    results for MLT funds are largely in line with LLT funds (see Panel C). Importantly,

    on average, LLT and MLT funds show higher absolute factor contributions than FD

    funds, due to variations in factor alphas.

    Regarding the SLT funds in Panel D, we document for the high factor alpha fund

    groups that funds with positive factor exposures show among the highest factor

    contributions. Conversely, SLT funds in the low factor alpha groups have minor

    factor contributions, as these groups are exposed to small factor alphas on average

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    (compare Figure 3). 5 In addition, the SMB and MOM factor alphas of these SLT fund

    groups are negative on average (compare Figure 3). Therefore, respective groups with

    positive factor exposures have negative factor contributions and lower JAs compared

    to four-factor alphas. Accordingly, SLT funds with positive factor exposures exhibit

    higher JAs than four-factor alphas due to positive factor contributions.

    Insert Table 4 about here

    In short, differences between JAs and four-factor alphas are substantially

    influenced by variations in factor contributions which are driven by factor alphas

    during the funds lifetimes. In particular, the factor contributions of SLT funds

    substantially vary due to the market phases of factor alphas.

    3.3 Time period adjustment of Jensen alpha

    So far, we have observed that the JAs of our fund subsamples are differently affected

    by factor contributions. After accounting for the sign of factor exposures, this is

    mainly caused by market phases of factor alphas. To eliminate the market climate

    impact on JAs, we now control for fund-specific factor alphas by replacing those with

    full-period factor alphas. Consequently, we determine the adjusted JA for each fund

    according to Equation (7). As result, we expect adjusted JAs of funds in the high

    factor alpha fund groups to be lower (higher) than the classic JAs given positive

    (negative) factor exposures. Since LLT funds mainly consist of funds with factor

    alphas closer to full-period factor alphas, the JAs of this subsample should be less

    affected by time period adjustments. In contrast, JAs of SLT funds should

    5 In results not reported, we find that factor alphas are the higher (lower) for SLT funds in the high(low) factor alpha groups compared to corresponding LLT and MLT fund groups. These results are

    available from the authors upon request.

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    substantially change due to time period adjustments, as the factor alphas during their

    lifetimes deviate substantially with respect to full-period factor alphas (see Section

    3.2).

    We sort LLT, MLT and SLT funds into the same fund groups as in Section 3.2.

    Based on Equation (8), Table 5 refers to the adjusted JA, the classic JA and the

    differences between adjusted and original factor contributions of LLT, MLT and SLT

    fund groups in Panel A, B and C, respectively. In line with expectations, LLT funds

    with positive SMB exposures in the high factor alpha group exhibit smaller adjusted

    JAs (0.109%) than corresponding JAs (0.161%). This is mainly caused by a

    downward adjustment of the SMB factor contribution (0.059%). For funds with

    negative SMB exposure, a positive adjustment of the SMB factor contribution

    (0.021%) leads to a higher adjusted JA (0.049%). However, funds in the low factor

    alpha group with positive HML (MOM) exposure also exhibit lower adjusted JAs.

    This is because the positive adjustment of the HML (MOM) contribution of 0.016%

    (0.026%) is exceeded by a negative adjustment of the SMB factor contribution of

    0.026% (0.046%). For MLT funds in Panel B and SLT funds in Panel C, we find

    that the differences between adjusted JAs and classic JAs are mostly in line with our

    expectations. Not surprisingly, most substantial are observed for the groups

    containing SLT funds. For example, for SLT funds with positive SMB exposures in

    the high factor alpha group, the difference on average between adjusted JA and JA

    measures 0.16%. Thus, strong deviations in factor alphas lead to substantial

    adjustments in factor contributions and hence to adjustments in JAs.

    Insert Table 5 about here

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    One conclusion drawn from these findings is that comparing funds based on the

    classic JA can result in biased fund rankings as soon as the investigated funds exhibit

    different lengths of return history. To illustrate differences in fund rankings for our

    fund subsamples, we present scatter plots similar to Bollen and Whaley (2009).

    Therefore, we plot rank positions of funds based on adjusted JAs and JAs in one

    diagram.

    Figure 4 shows respective scatter plots for all funds as well as for the subsamples

    of FD, LLT, MLT and SLT funds. In addition, corresponding mean absolute rank

    changes (MARC) are reported. In the case of identical rank positions, coordinates of

    funds would be located exactly on the bisecting line. For all funds in Panel A, we

    observe that a larger share of funds is distributed closely to the bisecting line but

    several funds are still widely dispersed. Against this background, FD funds in Panel B

    and LLT funds in Panel C show relatively few differences in rank between those

    based on adjusted JA and those based on JA. Since factor alphas of LLT funds are

    only slightly adjusted, LLT funds exhibit an average MARC of only 163.5 ranks.

    Importantly, the positions of SLT funds clearly deviate from the bisecting line

    reflected by a relatively high average MARC of 357.9 ranks (see Panel E). Thus we

    conclude that in this subsample, rank positions of funds based on the classic JA are

    clearly influenced by market climate.

    Insert Figure 4 about here

    3.4 Robustness: Augmented factor models

    Until now, our analysis is based on the assumption that the Carhart four-factor model

    represents the return generating process of funds. However, recent literature offers

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    alternative models that take additional performance factors into account. In the

    following, we thus study whether our results are affected by choosing augmented

    multi-factor models as the assumed return generating process of funds.

    Taking the Carhart four-factor model (Model 1) as the point of departure, there are

    several performance factors which could additionally be considered. For example,

    Pastor and Stambaugh (2003) document that expected returns of stocks are sensitive

    to market liquidity and suggest the use of a liquidity factor. Furthermore, Frazzini and

    Petersen (2013) show that assets with high market exposure produce relatively low

    alphas compared to assets with low market exposure. Consequently, they introduce a

    so-called betting-against-beta (BAB) factor. Moreover, Asness et al. (2013) find high

    quality stocks to exhibit higher risk-adjusted returns than low quality stocks. To

    account for this potential anomaly, they introduce a quality-minus-junk (QMJ) factor

    which may help to better explain stock returns. We consider these three potential

    performance factors and hence augment the Carhart four-factor model either with a

    liquidity, a BAB or a QMJ factor, resulting in three respective five-factor models

    (Models 2 to 4). 6 Finally, we include these three additional factors at the same time,

    resulting in a seven-factor model (Model 5).

    Panel A of Table 6 presents Pearson correlations between adjusted JAs based on

    the Models 1 to 5, respectively, which measure from 0.919 to 0.997. Likewise,

    respective Spearman rank correlations in Panel B range between 0.907 and 0.997.

    These high correlations indicate that the use of the Carhart (1997) four-factor model

    6 The monthly return of the liquidity factor is downloadable from Lubos Pastors website(http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/lubos.pastor/research/), which also contains information about thefactor construction. The monthly returns of the BAB and QMJ factors are downloadable from AndreaFrazzinis website (http://www.econ.yale.edu/~af227/data_library.htm), which also contains

    information about the factor construction.

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    as return generating process of funds is quite robust against the application of these

    alternative multi-factor models.

    Insert Table 6 about here

    4. Summary and conclusion

    Our theoretical and empirical analyses indicate that using the classic JA to measure

    and compare fund performance for a survivorship bias-free dataset can result in a

    biased comparison. Different realizations of factor alphas during fund-specific

    lifetimes result in varying factor contributions to the JA and thus impact respective

    fund rankings.

    To illustrate the impact of market phases of factor alphas on JA with respect to

    lifetime of funds, we group funds based on the length of their return histories. We use

    the Carhart four-factor model as the return generating process and show that

    differences between the four-factor alphas and JAs of funds are driven by their SMB,

    HML and MOM factor contributions. In detail, after accounting for the sign of the

    factor exposures, factor contributions are driven by factor alphas and their respective

    market phases. This is particularly the case for funds with short return histories. To

    reduce the impact of market climate on factor contributions, we suggest standardizing

    the evaluation period for all funds by replacing fund-specific factor alphas with full-

    period factor alphas. We thus determine the JA which funds would have shown if they

    had existed during the full evaluation period. This adjustment of factor alphas and

    factor contributions has a stronger impact on funds with shorter return histories,

    causing larger differences between adjusted JAs and corresponding classic JAs.

    Against this background, fund rankings based on JA (instead of adjusted JA) are

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    influenced by fund-specific factor alphas which can thus result in misleading

    conclusions about the performance of the investigated fund sample. Comparing

    correlations between adjusted JAs based on the Carhart four-factor model and based

    on four augmented multi-factor models, our findings indicate only minor differences

    and hence underline the robustness of our empirical results.

    The findings reported here are not only important to researchers concerned with

    fund performance and ranking, but also to investors and analysts comparing the

    performance of individual funds. Moreover, our results are also useful for investment

    company boards when rewarding fund managers for their performance relative to

    others. Regarding future research, several possible directions emerge from these

    results. In the context of empirical studies, the use of time period-adjusted alphas

    could be applied to funds investing in different asset classes. Moreover, the approach

    of adjusting JA could be transferred to other popular performance measures like the

    Information ratio.

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    Table 1: Yearly total numbers, starts and disappearances of fundsThis table shows the total numbers of funds as well as the numbers of annual fundstarts and disappearances within the evaluation period from January 1996 to December2009. Total number refers to the number of funds operating at the end of each year.

    Funds

    Year Total number Starts Disappearances

    1995 1,097 1996 1,271 174 1997 1,500 229 1998 1,737 237 1999 1,946 213 42000 2,101 232 772001 2,198 173 762002 2,241 138 952003 2,219 120 1422004 2,217 132 1342005 2,260 190 1472006 2,283 145 1222007 2,174 22 1312008 2,049 1252009 1,849 200

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    Table 2: Descriptive statistics of factorsThis table shows descriptive statistics for the monthly explanatory factors. The evaluation period is from January 1996 toDecember 2009. Monthly factor alphas are estimated based on Equation (1). Means and factor alphas are reported in percent. STDrefers to the standard deviation of monthly returns. VIF refers to the variance inflation factor. Numbers in brackets representt-statistics that are based on the null hypothesis H o: x = 0.

    Factor Mean STD Factor

    alphaVIF

    Correlation

    ERM SMB HML MOMERM 0.38 0.049 1.32 1

    (1.02)SMB 0.26 0.039 0.192 1.21 0.23 1

    (0.87) (0.65)HML 0.35 0.037 0.428 1.31 0.28 0.39 1

    (1.20) (1.54)MOM 0.44 0.062 0.596 1.23 0.33 0.08 0.16 1

    (0.92) (1.32)

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    Table 3: Descriptive statistics of fund subsamplesThis table shows cross-sectional means and standard deviations (STD) of one-factor Jensen alphas as well as alphas and betas of the four-factor model for four fund subsamples. In addition, the table presents cross-sectional means and STD of corresponding factor alphas basedon fund lifetimes. Funds are first sorted into full-data funds (FD funds) and non-full-data funds. Non-full-data funds are then allocated tothree subsamples based on the length of fund return histories. LLT (MLT, SLT) funds refer to funds with long (medium, short) lifetimes.Monthly (factor) alphas and STD are reported in percent.

    1F-model 4F-modelFactor alpha

    during fund lifetime

    1F adj. R2 4F 4F 4F 4F 4F adj. R2 smb

    1F hml 1F mom1F

    Panel A: FD fundsMean 0.025 0.767 0.045 0.965 0.152 0.084 0.007 0.871 0.192 0.428 0.596STD 0.199 0.113 0.173 0.161 0.311 0.315 0.106 0.071Panel B: LLT funds Mean 0.034 0.767 0.052 0.988 0.16 0.052 0.024 0.873 0.318 0.533 0.549STD 0.305 0.129 0.242 0.146 0.314 0.337 0.125 0.076 0.145 0.159 0.334Panel C: MLT funds Mean 0.072 0.801 0.150 0.997 0.194 0.015 0.019 0.887 0.313 0.492 0.509STD 0.319 0.139 0.272 0.171 0.337 0.319 0.126 0.090 0.191 0.249 0.562Panel D: SLT funds Mean 0.121 0.804 0.155 1.001 0.194 0.005 0.001 0.889 0.246 0.298 0.165STD 0.477 0.166 0.393 0.183 0.337 0.321 0.153 0.102 0.436 0.371 0.825

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    Table 4: Components of Jensen alphaThis table shows average one-factor Jensen alphas, four-factor alphas and factor contributions for four fund subsamples. Funds are firstsorted into full-data funds (FD funds) and non-full-data funds. Non-full-data funds are then allocated to three subsamples based on the lengthof fund return histories. LLT (MLT, SLT) funds refer to funds with long (medium, short) lifetimes. Fund subsamples are further divided by

    positive factor exposure and negative factor exposure (for each of the factors SMB, HML and MOM). In addition, LLT, MLT and SLT fundsare sorted based on the factor alpha of funds being higher than the corresponding full-period factor alpha (high factor alpha) or lower than thecorresponding full-period factor alpha (low factor alpha). Monthly alphas and factor contributions are reported in percent.

    1F 4F 2

    4F smb1F 3

    4F hml 1F 4

    4F mom 1F

    Panel A: FD funds pos. SMB 0.078 0.036 0.071 0.027 0.016neg. SMB 0.044 0.056 0.024 0.047 0.011

    pos. HML 0.075 0.048 0.022 0.122 0.021neg. HML 0.058 0.039 0.040 0.104 0.045

    pos. MOM 0.010 0.076 0.043 0.030 0.053neg. MOM 0.059 0.014 0.016 0.101 0.044

    Panel B: LLT fundsHigh factor alpha pos. SMB 0.161 0.018 0.129 0.023 0.028neg. SMB 0.066 0.043 0.044 0.031 0.010

    pos. HML 0.105 0.085 0.039 0.173 0.022neg. HML 0.146 0.083 0.052 0.158 0.044

    pos. MOM 0.117 0.193 0.052 0.085 0.108neg. MOM 0.112 0.125 0.002 0.082 0.071

    Low factor alpha pos. SMB 0.074 0.164 0.059 0.018 0.049neg. SMB 0.152 0.136 0.017 0.033 0.032

    pos. HML 0.160 0.003 0.063 0.109 0.009neg. HML 0.040 0.015 0.065 0.097 0.057

    pos. MOM 0.104 0.008 0.096 0.021 0.036neg. MOM 0.136 0.028 0.029 0.106 0.027

    Panel C: MLT fundsHigh factor alpha pos. SMB 0.027 0.150 0.150 0.011 0.017neg. SMB 0.172 0.130 0.049 0.016 0.009

    pos. HML 0.013 0.218 0.050 0.200 0.045neg. HML 0.279 0.236 0.076 0.191 0.073

    pos. MOM 0.176 0.296 0.074 0.095 0.140neg. MOM 0.150 0.199 0.014 0.122 0.087

    Low factor alpha pos. SMB 0.155 0.222 0.041 0.016 0.042neg. SMB 0.128 0.097 0.013 0.006 0.024

    pos. HML 0.062 0.049 0.062 0.048 0.002neg. HML 0.035 0.052 0.059 0.052 0.010

    pos. MOM 0.019 0.094 0.091 0.023 0.006neg. MOM 0.044 0.034 0.064 0.015 0.001

    Panel D: SLT fundsHigh factor alpha pos. SMB 0.040 0.181 0.220 0.034 0.035neg. SMB 0.192 0.104 0.088 0.006 0.007

    pos. HML 0.007 0.225 0.028 0.255 0.052neg. HML 0.361 0.302 0.118 0.224 0.046

    pos. MOM 0.036 0.204 0.059 0.058 0.167neg. MOM 0.256 0.182 0.023 0.092 0.142

    Low factor alpha pos. SMB 0.163 0.159 0.007 0.021 0.019neg. SMB 0.156 0.162 0.003 0.030 0.026

    pos. HML 0.214 0.208 0.001 0.028 0.033neg. HML 0.005 0.020 0.030 0.018 0.014

    pos. MOM 0.150 0.139 0.056 0.036 0.031neg. MOM 0.035 0.127 0.035 0.031 0.027

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    Table 5: Time period adjustment of Jensen alphaThis table shows average time period-adjusted Jensen alphas, Jensen alphas and differences between full-period adjusted- and original factorcontributions for non-full-data fund subsamples. Non-full-data funds are sorted into three subsamples based on the length of fund returnhistories. LLT (MLT, SLT) funds refer to funds with long (medium, short) lifetimes. Fund subsamples are further divided by positive factorexposure and negative factor exposure (for each of the factors SMB, HML and MOM). In addition, LLT, MLT and SLT funds are sorted

    based on the factor alpha of funds being higher than the corresponding full-period factor alpha (high factor alpha) or lower than thecorresponding full-period factor alpha (low factor alpha). Monthly alphas and differences in factor contributions are reported in percent.

    1F_adj 1F 2

    4F ( smb1F_ FP smb

    1F 3 4F ( hml

    1F_F P hml ,1F 4

    4F ( mom1F_F P mom 1F

    Panel A: LLT fundsHigh factor alpha pos. SMB 0.109 0.161 0.059 0.001 0.006neg. SMB 0.049 0.066 0.021 0.004 0.000

    pos. HML 0.049 0.105 0.017 0.051 0.011neg. HML 0.118 0.146 0.023 0.054 0.003

    pos. MOM 0.131 0.117 0.006 0.029 0.038neg. MOM 0.108 0.112 0.000 0.020 0.025

    Low factor alpha pos. SMB 0.062 0.074 0.016 0.012 0.015neg. SMB 0.156 0.152 0.006 0.009 0.010

    pos. HML 0.148 0.160 0.026 0.016 0.002

    neg. HML 0.008 0.040 0.021 0.013 0.001 pos. MOM 0.085 0.104 0.046 0.001 0.026neg. MOM 0.100 0.136 0.013 0.009 0.015

    Panel B: MLT fundsHigh factor alpha pos. SMB 0.043 0.027 0.076 0.000 0.006neg. SMB 0.141 0.172 0.025 0.001 0.006

    pos. HML 0.086 0.013 0.023 0.072 0.022neg. HML 0.266 0.279 0.036 0.072 0.022

    pos. MOM 0.234 0.176 0.028 0.031 0.061neg. MOM 0.155 0.150 0.001 0.042 0.038

    Low factor alpha pos. SMB 0.151 0.155 0.037 0.009 0.024neg. SMB 0.124 0.128 0.013 0.003 0.014

    pos. HML 0.066 0.062 0.024 0.029 0.002neg. HML 0.070 0.035 0.012 0.036 0.014

    pos. MOM 0.012 0.019 0.043 0.006 0.044neg. MOM 0.012 0.044 0.022 0.005 0.038

    Panel C: SLT fundsHigh factor alpha pos. SMB 0.120 0.040 0.151 0.000 0.009neg. SMB 0.124 0.192 0.065 0.003 0.000

    pos. HML 0.100 0.007 0.005 0.110 0.009neg. HML 0.325 0.361 0.080 0.108 0.008

    pos. MOM 0.131 0.036 0.019 0.006 0.081neg. MOM 0.135 0.256 0.048 0.005 0.066

    Low factor alpha pos. SMB 0.084 0.163 0.082 0.017 0.014neg. SMB 0.167 0.156 0.024 0.001 0.012

    pos. HML 0.099 0.214 0.039 0.071 0.006neg. HML 0.053 0.005 0.012 0.075 0.004 pos. MOM 0.078 0.150 0.013 0.001 0.084neg. MOM 0.137 0.035 0.004 0.028 0.078

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    Table 6: Rank correlation between adjusted Jensen alphasThis table presents Pearson correlations and Spearman rank correlations of funds between time period-adjusted Jensen alphas (JA adj) basedon several multi-factor models. The evaluation period is from January 1996 to December 2009. Model 1 is the Carhart four-factor model.Model 2 refers to a five-factor model that additionally includes a liquidity factor (Pastor and Stambaugh, 2003). Model 3 represents a five-factor model that additionally contains a betting-against-beta factor (Frazzini and Petersen, 2013). Model 4 refers to a five-factor model thataugments the Carhart model by a quality-minus-junk factor (Asness et al., 2013). Model 5 is a seven-factor model that contains the fourfactors of the Carhart model as well as the liquidity, the betting-against-beta and the quality-minus-junk factors.

    JA adj (M1) JA adj (M2) JA adj (M3) JA adj (M4) JA adj (M5)

    Panel A: Pearson correlationJA adj (M1) 1JA adj (M2) 0.997 1JA adj (M3) 0.967 0.969 1JA adj (M4) 0.941 0.940 0.919 1JA adj (M5) 0.953 0.954 0.962 0.948 1Panel B: Spearman rank correlationJA adj (M1) 1JA adj (M2) 0.997 1JA adj (M3) 0.961 0.963 1JA adj (M4) 0.927 0.926 0.907 1

    JAadj

    (M5) 0.941 0.941 0.951 0.943 1

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    Figure 1: Monthly number of funds in subsamplesThis figure shows the monthly number of funds in four subsamples. The evaluation period is from January 1996 to December 2009. Thefunds are first sorted into full-data funds (FD funds) and non-full-data funds. Non-full-data funds are then allocated to three subsamples

    based on the length of fund return histories. LLT (MLT, SLT) funds refer to funds with long (medium, short) lifetimes.

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500600

    700

    800

    900

    1 2 . 1 9 9 6

    1 2 . 1 9 9 7

    1 2 . 1 9 9 8

    1 2 . 1 9 9 9

    1 2 . 2 0 0 0

    1 2 . 2 0 0 1

    1 2 . 2 0 0 2

    1 2 . 2 0 0 3

    1 2 . 2 0 0 4

    1 2 . 2 0 0 5

    1 2 . 2 0 0 6

    1 2 . 2 0 0 7

    1 2 . 2 0 0 8

    1 2 . 2 0 0 9

    FD funds (638) LLT funds (829) MLT funds (819) SLT funds (816)

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    Figure 2: Rolling 12-month factor alphasThis figure presents monthly rolling 12-month factor alphas stemming from regressions of the monthly factors SMB, HML and MOM on themarket excess return ERM according to Equation (1). The evaluation period is from January 1996 to December 2009. The first windowranges from January 1996 to December 1996. The horizontal axis indicates the end dates of the respective rolling windows. Monthly factoralphas are reported in percent.

    -8

    -7

    -6

    -5

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    1 2 . 1 9 9 6

    1 2 . 1 9 9 7

    1 2 . 1 9 9 8

    1 2 . 1 9 9 9

    1 2 . 2 0 0 0

    1 2 . 2 0 0 1

    1 2 . 2 0 0 2

    1 2 . 2 0 0 3

    1 2 . 2 0 0 4

    1 2 . 2 0 0 5

    1 2 . 2 0 0 6

    1 2 . 2 0 0 7

    1 2 . 2 0 0 8

    1 2 . 2 0 0 9

    SMB factor alpha HML factor alpha MOM factor alpha

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    Figure 3: Frequencies of factor alphas for different fund subsamplesThis figure shows the absolute frequencies of factor alphas with respect to each fund subsample and the factors SMB, HML and MOM.Factor alphas stem from regressing the factors SMB, HML and MOM on the market excess return ERM according to Equation (1) based oneach funds specific lifetime. The bold vertical lines refer to the corresponding full-period factor alphas of SMB, HML and MOM. Funds arefirst sorted into full-data funds and non-full data funds. Non-full data funds are then allocated to three subsamples based on the length offund return histories. LLT (MLT, SLT) funds refer to funds with long (medium, short) lifetimes. Panels A, B and C show the absolutefrequencies of factor alphas for LLT, MLT and SLT funds, respectively. Monthly factor alphas are reported in percent.

    LLT funds

    SMB factor alpha

    F r e q u e n c y

    -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

    0

    1 0 0

    2 0 0

    3 0 0

    LLT funds

    HML factor alpha

    F r e q u e n c y

    -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

    0

    1 0 0

    2 0 0

    3 0 0

    LLT funds

    MOM factor alpha

    F r e q u e n c y

    -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

    0

    1 0 0

    2 0 0

    3 0 0

    MLT funds

    SMB factor alpha

    F r e q

    u e n c y

    -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

    0

    1 0 0

    2 0 0

    3 0 0

    MLT funds

    HML factor alpha

    F r e q

    u e n c y

    -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

    0

    1 0 0

    2 0 0

    3 0 0

    MLT funds

    MOM factor alpha

    F r e q

    u e n c y

    -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

    0

    1 0 0

    2 0 0

    3 0 0

    SLT funds

    SMB factor alphas

    F r e q u e n c y

    -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

    0

    1 0 0

    2 0 0

    3 0 0

    SLT funds

    HML factor alpha

    F r e q u e n c y

    -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

    0

    1 0 0

    2 0 0

    3 0 0

    SLT funds

    MOM factor alpha

    F r e q u e n c y

    -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

    0

    1 0 0

    2 0 0

    3 0 0

    Panel A: LLT funds

    Panel B: MLT funds

    Panel C: SLT funds

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    Panel A: All funds (MARC: 210.1) Panel B: FD funds (MARC: 54.6)

    Panel C: LLT funds (MARC: 163.5) Panel D: MLT funds (MARC: 234.1)

    Panel E: SLT funds (MARC: 357.9)

    Figure 4: Scatter plots of fund ranks based on Jensen alphas and time period-adjusted Jensen alphasThis figure shows scatter plots of rank positions for all funds and for four fund subsamples. The evaluation period is from January 1996 toDecember 2009. The rank positions are based on the classic Jensen alpha (JA) and the time period-adjusted JA. Funds are first sorted intofull-data funds (FD funds) and non-full-data funds. Non-full-data funds are then allocated to three subsamples based on the length of fundreturn histories. LLT (MLT, SLT) funds refer to funds with long (medium, short) lifetimes. Panel A presents the scatter plots of rank

    positions with respect to all funds. Panels B to E present scatter plots of rank positions with respect to the FD, LLT, MLT and SLT fundsubsamples. MARC refers to the mean absolute rank change between the classic JA and the adjusted JA.

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