spsc low carbon tool: interim status report crepc/spsc meeting san diego, ca october 5, 2012 arne...
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SPSC Low Carbon Tool: Interim Status Report
CREPC/SPSC meetingSan Diego, CA
October 5, 2012
Arne Olson
Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc.
E3 has operated at the nexus of energy, environment, and economics since it was founded in 1989
E3 advises utilities, regulators, government agencies, power producers, energy technology companies, and investors on a wide range of critical issues in the electricity and natural gas industries
Offices in San Francisco, CA and Vancouver, B.C.
30 professional staff in economics, engineering & policy
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The 2010 & 2011 SPSC Carbon Reduction Scenarios
SPSC Study Case carbon reduction targets based on economy-wide Waxman/Markey bill
• 17% below 2005 levels by 2020
• 42% below 2005 levels by 2030
Low Carbon Case in the WECC 10-year plan
• Tool evaluates congestion given transmission and generation assumptions, carbon pricing changes dispatch but not new build
Low Carbon Case in the WECC 20-year plan
• Evaluates new transmission and generation; carbon pricing can change new generation and transmission build choices
• LBNL funded E3 to develop the “Low Carbon Scenarios Tool” to support SPSC development of inputs to the WECC’s 20-year tool & track combined impacts of DSM & electrification on WECC loads
3
Proposed Interface of Low Carbon Tool & WECC LTPT
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WECC Long-term Transmission Planning
ToolElectricity sector only: 2032
Low Carbon ToolEconomy-wide “baseline”
emissions forecast
Emission reduction measures
Economy-wide carbon reduction scenario
Electricity-sector carbon target
New electricity demand due to electrification
Input to WECC
Carbon reduction policies in electricity sector
Optional input to WECC
Optional input to WECC
Low Carbon Tool Screen Shot
Excel-based, users can define and save new scenarios
Option for State & Province-specific GHG reduction inputs & outputs or WECC-wide inputs & outputs
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Low Carbon Tool: WECC Baseline CO2 Forecasts
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40%
12%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Elec
tric
Sec
tor E
mis
sion
s (M
MTC
O2e
)
RPS Targets
Coal Displacement
Low GHG Case
Reference Case
58%24%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Econ
omy
Wid
e Em
issi
ons
(MM
TCO
2e)
Fuel Efficiency
Biofuels
Electrification
Natural Gas
Industrial Extraction
Electric Sector Savings
Offsets
Low CO2 Case
Reference Case
40%
12%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Elec
tric
Sec
tor E
mis
sion
s (M
MTC
O2e
)
RPS Targets
Coal Displacement
Low GHG Case
Reference Case
Economy-wide baseline (CO2 from fuel combustion only)
Electricity Sector Baseline(CO2 from fuel combustion only)
Example Scenario: Economy-Wide CO2 Reduction Options
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1. Fuel Efficiency & Conservation
2. Fuel Switching Zero-Carbon Biofuels
3. Electrification (res., comm., industrial & transportation vehicles)
6. Decarbonization of Electricity Sector (DSM, RPS, coal displacement & CCS)
7. Offsets/Residual (non-WECC or non-fossil fuel based CO2 reductions)
5. Reduction in Mining & Refining Energy Use Due to Reduced Demand
4. Fuel Switching Natural Gas Vehicles
-80%-42%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Econ
omy
Wid
e Em
issi
ons
(MM
TCO
2e)
Fuel Efficiency
Biofuels
Electrification
Natural Gas
Industrial Extraction
Electric Sector Savings
Offsets
Low CO2 Case
Reference Case
Example Scenario: Impacts in Electricity Sector
Electrification increases carbon in electricity sector even while reducing carbon in overall economy
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impact of electrification
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Elec
tric
Sec
tor E
mis
sion
s (M
MTC
O2e
)
Electric Efficiency
RPS Targets
Coal Displacement
CCS Retrofits
Generic Decarbonization
Electrification
Non-Electrification Result
Reference Case
Active Case
Zero-carbon resources
Example Scenario: WECC Electrification Impacts
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Net impact of electrification and energy efficiency results in higher load growth than reference case
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Net
Ele
ctric
Dem
and
(TW
h)
Reference
+ Energy Efficiency
+ Electrification
Next Steps
Work with SPSC & LBNL staff to develop draft inputs to the “Low Carbon Case”
Webinar with SPSC to show draft inputs, solicit feedback
To be scheduled in Oct – Nov. timeframe
Revise inputs based on SPSC & LBNL feedback
Work with WECC staff to integrate results of Low Carbon Case into Long-Term Planning Tools
SPSC members may also be interested in developing state & provincial specific scenarios
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Thank You
Contact:
Arne Olson, [email protected]
Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc.101 Montgomery Street, San Francisco, CA 94104(415) 391 – 5100
Low Carbon Tool Approach
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Base Case Non-ElectricFuel Demand
Fuel-Specific Emissions Factors
Low Carbon Case Non-Electric Emissions
Policy-Driven Changes•Fuel Efficiency•Biofuels Switching•Natural Gas Switching•Electrification
Low Carbon Case Fuel Demand
Policy-Driven Modifiers•Electric Efficiency•Electrification
Low Carbon Case Electric Demand
Clean Energy Goals•RPS Targets•Coal Displacement•Sector Carbon Cap
Low Carbon Case Electricity Mix
Offsets
Base Case Electricity Demand
Base Case Electricity MixLow Carbon Case Electric Emissions
Inputs for Low Carbon Case
Low Carbon Tool inputs can be calibrated to long-term carbon reduction targets in 2050
• Potential to calibrate to existing studies, i.e. Science (2012) Williams et al., on California GHG reduction pathways
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
2032
2035
2038
2041
2044
2047
2050
2053
2056
2059
Adop
tion
%
S-Curve vs Linear Adoption
S-Curve
Linear
2032 impacts to electric sector evaluated based on long-term carbon goals and assumptions about adoption rates of GHG reduction measures, specified in the tool as “s-curve”