spotlight on the port stephens economy...tomaree business chamber, business breakfast dr anthea...
TRANSCRIPT
Tomaree Business Chamber, Business Breakfast
DR ANTHEA BILL, Hunter Research Foundation Centre5 April 2018
Spotlight on the Port Stephens Economy
• Hunter economy
• Growth drivers
• Housing and demographic trends
• Conclusion
PRESENTATIONOUTLINE
HUNTER ECONOMY
LABOUR MARKET: CONTRACTION & RECOVERY
Recovery period
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:CONVERGENCE WITH NSW
AUSTRALIA: FULL-TIME JOBS GROWTH
Source: ABS, Labour Force Survey.
Annual Growth (%)
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
DEC03
DEC04
DEC05
DEC06
DEC07
DEC08
DEC09
DEC10
DEC11
DEC12
DEC13
DEC14
DEC15
DEC16
DEC17
Full-time employment
Part-time employment
PULSE SURVEYS
Phonesurveys
300Households
300 Businesses
BUSINESS PERFORMANCE: NEW HIGHS SUSTAINED
* Figure has been interpolated for June 2015
CONSUMER SPENDING: IMPROVING
Source: Bishop and Cassidy, Reserve Bank Bulletin, March 2017.
WAGES: STILL SLUGGISHWage Price
Index Forecasts
REGIONAL OUTLOOK:CONFIDENCE SUSTAINED
DRIVERS OF GROWTH2016 CENSUS
CENSUS 2016: INDUSTRY PROFILE
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
Health CareRetail Trade
ConstructionPublic Administration & Safety
Accommodation & FoodManufacturing
Education & TrainingTransport, Postal etc
ProfessionalOther Services
Administrative & SupportFinancial and Insurance
MiningWholesale Trade
Rental, Hiring etcAgriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Arts and Recreation ServicesElectricity, Gas, Water & Waste
Information Media & Telecommunications Port Stephens LGA
Source: ABS, Census 2016
CENSUS 2016:METRO VS NON-METRO
Hunter excl. Newcastle
Newcastle & Lake Macquarie
Rest of NSW
Greater Sydney Port Stephens
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2006-11 2011-16
Employment Growth
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006-11 2011-16
Population Growth %
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2006-11 2011-16
Working Population%%
Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing.
CENSUS 2011-16: HUNTERLABOUR MARKET TRANSITION
+21,900
-13,472
-1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
AgricultureMining
ManufacturingElectricity
ConstructionWholesale Trade
Retail TradeAccommodation & Food
Transport etcInfo & Telecom
Financial & InsuranceReal Estate Services
ProfessionalAdmin & Support
Public Admin & SafetyEducation & TrainingHealth Care & Social
Arts & RecreationOther Services
Thousands
Job Growth, 2011-16Job Growth, 2006-11
Manufacturing
CHANGES IN INDUSTRY DRIVERS:PORT STEPHENS
Health Care &Social Assistance
-1,362 +1,780
HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION
HOUSING: RENTS AND SALE PRICES
Source: Housing NSW, Rent and Sales Report
0
100
200
300
400
500
Med
ian
Wee
kly
Rent
($)
Median Rent
3 bed median rent ($/week) LGA Port Stephens
Benchmark 3 bed median rent ($/week) State NSW
NSW
Port Stephens
0100200300400500600700
Med
ian
Hous
e Sa
le P
rice
($ 0
00)
Median House Sale Price
House median sale price ($ 000) LGA Port Stephens
Benchmark house median sale price ($ 000) State NSW
NSW
Port Stephens
HOUSING PRICES: LONG-TERM PRICE GROWTH
0
100
200
300
400
500
600 Cessnock Lake Macquarie
Maitland Newcastle
Port Stephens
$
Source: Housing NSW, Rent and Sales Report
HOUSING PRICES: SLOWER GROWTH
PORT STEPHENS: RESIDENTIAL APPROVALS
Source: ABS, Building Approvals.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000Re
siden
tial B
uild
ing
Appr
oval
s (no
.)
New House (no.) LGA Port Stephens
New other residential (no.) LGA Port Stephens
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Mill
ions Total Residential
Total Non-residential
CONSTRUCTION PIPELINE: VALUE$
Source: ABS Building Approvals
VALUE BUILDING APPROVALS
Public expenditure Williamtown, defence upgrades
PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY: FIRST HOME BUYERS
HOUSING STRESS: WHAT DOES THE CENSUS TELL US?
6.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
162011 2016% Households
10.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16 2011 2016% Households
RENTAL STRESS
Source: ABS Census of Population and Housing
MORTGAGE STRESS
DEMOGRAPHIC & OTHER DRIVERS
POPULATION GROWTH: PORT STEPHENS
Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2016.
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%
Singleton
Muswellbrook
Upper Hunter Shire
Lake Macquarie
Newcastle
Port Stephens
Dungog
Cessnock
Maitland
% Population Change 2011- 2016
Persons
Females
Males
AGEING POPULATION: PORT STEPHENS
Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2016.
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0% Age Dependency Ratio
POST SCHOOL QUALS: PORT STEPHENS1.1%
0.7%
5.8%
6.2%
20.1%
1.2%
8.3%
56.5%
1.5%
0.9%
6.7%
7.3%
22.1%
0.7%
9.2%
51.7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Postgraduate Degree
Graduate Diploma and Graduate Certificate
Bachelor Degree
Advanced Diploma and Diploma
Certificate
Inadequately Described
Not stated
No Qualifications
2011 2016
Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2016.
FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES:PORT STEPHENS
• Williamtown RAAF Base - defence & innovation opportunities
• Newcastle Airport
• Health and aged care – aging population and retirees
• Tourism
TOURISM: HUNTER
Source: Destination NSW.
$ million
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total visitors (RHS)
Totalexpenditure (LHS)
‘000s
HUNTER BUSINESSES& DIGITAL ECONOMY
Source: HRF Centre, Hunter Pulse Business Surveys * Data not collected 2014.
HUNTER BUSINESSES: USE OF DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY
DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY:KNOWLEDGE SEEKERS?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Developing aweb presence
Utilisingcloud-based
solutions
Acceptingpaymentsthroughwebsites
Marketing viasocial
networks
Other area notalready
mentioned
Do not needto improve
knowledge ofICT
How would you like to improve your knowledge of ICT?
2015 2016 2017
Source: HRF Centre, Hunter Pulse Business Surveys
Source: HRF Centre, Hunter Pulse Household Survey
HUNTER HOUSEHOLDS: AGE BARRIERS PERSIST
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Home has internetaccess
Have accessed theinternet
Purchased goodsand services via
internet
Social networkingfacebook/twitter
Acccess theinternet frommobile phone
<65 65+
SUMMARY• Business confidence and performance• Consumer spending improved• Opportunities provided by ageing population,
defence and tourism
• Consumer spending LT subdued• Ageing population poses some risks to working
profile, need to better engage technology• Human capital development a priority
THANK YOUTHIS PRESENTATION will be available on
our website later today
INTERESTED IN OUR ECONOMIC BREAKFASTS?
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