spoilt for choice - clsa · 2013. 5. 8. · spoilt for choice keynote and specialist speakers find...

Spoilt for choice Keynote and specialist speakers

Find CLSA research on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, CapIQ and themarkets.com - and profit from our evalu@tor proprietary database at clsa.com

www.clsa.com

23-27 September 2013 Grand Hyatt Hong Kong

Welcome to the 20th annual CLSA Investors’ Forum We are pleased to present more than 40 thought-leaders on subjects critical to investors. Our daily Keynote Series sets the pace throughout the week, while specialists hone in on specific trends and opportunities. This guide enables you to make the very most of the 20th CLSA Investors’ Forum.

On Monday, Christopher Wood and Eric Fishwick set the tone with their views on global equities and economies, followed by former Bank of Israel governor Stanley Fischer’s luncheon keynote on what’s next after the Great Recession. Russell Napier kicks off Wednesday on the limitations of QE. As a tradition, Marc Faber of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report closes the Forum on Friday, this time by questioning whether governments are responsible for the current troubled markets. Throughout the week, we also have specialist speakers Olivier d’Assier on risk models; Christopher Ryan on A-share market liberalisation; Jeff Uscher on Japan’s pension dilemma; Indonesia’s finance minister, Muhamad Chatib Basri, on the domestic economy; Avinash Persaud on the impact of QE withdrawal; Ilian Mihov on emerging Asia’s economic growth; NYU’s Hal Hershfield on why thinking about tomorrow means a better today; and J Rande Howell on mastering emotions to achieve peak investing performance.

On Monday, data artist Jer Thorp brings abstract data into human context, and Peter Diamandis returns on Tuesday with a focus on driving breakthroughs. Over Wednesday lunch, ideas-generator Jared Cohen explains how the next five billion internet users will reshape the world. The New Yorker’s Michael Specter tells us on Thursday how ‘denialism’ of truths hinders scientific progress. As Thursday’s closing keynote, privacy researcher Christopher Soghoian turns his sights on government surveillance. Specialist speaker Chris Mack predicts the future of semiconductor manufacturing; John Zysman discusses the coming disruption by cloud computing; The Economist’s innovation editor Paul Markillie presents on why 3D printing will be beneficial but disruptive; and Edward Steinfeld talks about China’s innovation.

On Tuesday morning, Pulitzer Prize-winner Jared Diamond reveals what’s to be learned from traditional societies. Don’t miss our conversation with David Beckham, our closing keynote on Wednesday, as the former England captain chats about his sporting career, charitable works and life post-football. On Thursday, clinical-medicine professor Terry Wahls recalls her remarkable journey from wheelchair confinement to completing a 28-mile bike ride. On Friday morning, statistician Nate Silver exposes the signal and the noise from data-based predictions. Oxford University’s gerontologist Sarah Harper argues why demographics is the force for the 21st Century, Sonia Arrison divulges how centenarians will be the norm and Linda Friedland returns with the science and secrets to optimal health. We hear from McCann Truth Central’s David McCaughan about Asian consumers, Stephen Clapham on Premier League football finance and Rosey Hurst with Impactt’s key insights into labour markets.

China remains a focal point in Asia. Harvard’s Noah Feldman coins a cool war between the nation and the USA on Tuesday; Daniel Rosen discusses its investment boom and Joshua Eisenman focus on its trade with Africa; and Jonathan Hurch and Scot Frank share tales tied to their charitable works. Mark Beeson reflects on Asian politics and discusses Asia’s past and next 20 years with Sarah Harper. Dominic Scriven and Bill Stoops scrutinise Vietnam, while David Lesch, who personally knows Syria’s leader, analyses the country’s disintegration.

MIT’s Gerbrand Ceder warns of a materials revolution, James Jensen predicts the impact of North America becoming an LNG exporter, while Mike Biddle mines us through the last frontier of recoverable materials - plastics.

Finance and economics Page 3

Science, technology and innovation 7

Geopolitics and Asian markets Page 39

Environment, energy and commodities Page 50

Demographics, consumer, health and sports Page 28

Notes to delegates

Find CLSA research on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, CapIQ and themarkets.com - and profit from our evalu@tor proprietary database at clsa.com 2

CFA Institute approved provider Earn credits with CLSA CLSA is a participant in the CFA Institute Approved-Provider Program and certain sessions have been approved for CE credit. If you are a CFA Institute member, CE credit for your participation in this programme will be automatically recorded in your CE tracking tool. In accordance with CFA Institute guidelines of the Continuing Education (CE) Program, eligible sessions include keynote and specialist-speaker sessions, but not analyst or company presentations. For ease of reference, the daily Forum schedule will mark sessions eligible for credit.

Register your attendance at CFA-credit-eligible sessions To register attendance at accredited sessions, present your delegate’s badge for scanning on entering a Track room. We will forward your information to the CFA Institute, which will record your attendance for PD credits. You can check your credits by logging on to your PD Diary at www.cfainstitute.org about a month after the Forum. Please contact the CFA Institute about any matters relating to your credits.

Credit-hour calculations Under CFA Institute guidelines, one PD credit hour under the CFA Approved Provider Program is defined as one hour of educational activity. Please check with our staff for the various hours of eligible credits for CFA Institute Professional Development.

CLSA U Among those speaking at our Investors’ Forum this year are a number of CLSA U instructors. Don’t miss their sessions on issues affecting Asian investment themes. As with the courses, these sessions are also eligible for CFA Institute PD credits. Your attendance will be automatically tracked and sent to the CFA Institute. We are pleased to be able to offer this facility as an ongoing part of our Investor Forums and CLSA U programme.

Index Arrison, Sonia ............ 33 Balanco, Laurence ....... 13 Baratte, Nicolas .......... 22 Basr, Muhamad Chatib . 15 Beckham, David ......... 29 Beeson, Mark ........ 41, 43 Biddle, Mike ............... 54 Boyd, Geoff ........... 53, 55 Bruce, Robert ............. 49 Campbell, Oliver ......... 49 Ceder, Gerbrand ......... 51 Chan, Andy ................ 44 Cheng, Patricia ........... 37 Cheung, Francis ............ 7 Clapham, Stephen ...... 38 Cochran, Shaun .......... 11 Cohen, Jared .............. 19 d'Assier, Olivier ............ 7 Diamandis, Peter ........ 18 Diamond, Jared .......... 28 Driscoll, Andrew ......... 50 Dy, Alfred .................. 40

Eisenman, Joshua ....... 47 Evans, Matt ................ 27 Faber, Marc .................. 6 Feldman, Noah ........... 39 Fischer, Aaron ............ 34 Fischer, Stanley ............ 4 Fishwick, Eric ......... 3, 41 Frank, Scot ................ 42 Friedland, Linda .......... 37 Gill, Amar ............. 41, 45 Harper, Sarah ........ 32, 41 Hershfield, Hal ............ 16 Howell, J Rande .......... 16 Hsu, Heather .............. 47 Hudson, Scott ............. 55 Hursh, Jonathan.......... 42 Hurst, Rosey .............. 35 Jensen, James ............ 52 Laprise, Scott ........ 53, 55 Lesch, David............... 46 Leung, Elinor .............. 27 Mack, Chris ................ 22

Maguire, Ed ................ 22 Malik, Rajeev .............. 12 Markillie, Paul ............. 23 McCaughan, Dave ....... 36 McKenzie, Paul ............ 23 Mihov, Ilian ................ 13 Murphy, David ............ 25 Nafte, Anthony ........... 14 Naik, Abhijeet ............. 53 Nandurkar, Mahesh ..... 43 Napier, Russell .............. 5 Ovington, Derek ............ 8 Panjwani, Rajesh ......... 53 Pathmakanthan, Anand 45 Peramunetilleke, Desh ... 8 Persaud, Avinash ......... 12 Powell, Simon ............. 50 Radclyffe, David .......... 50 Richter, Christopher ..... 53 Roper, Ian .................. 50 Rosen, Daniel ............. 40 Rothman, Andy ........... 10

Ryall, Scott ................. 11 Ryan, Christopher ......... 9 Scriven, Dominic ......... 48 Senaratne, Dee ........... 46 Silver, Nate ................ 31 Smith, Nicholas ............ 9 Soghoian, Christopher .. 21 Specter, Michael .......... 20 Steinfeld, Edward ........ 26 Stoops, Bill ................. 48 Sutton, Peter .............. 44 Thorp, Jer .................. 17 Uscher, Jeff ................ 10 Wahls, Terry ............... 30 Wan, Paul ................... 49 Wong, Nicole .............. 32 Wood, Christopher ........ 3 Yonts, Charles ............. 55 Zysman, John ............. 24

Registration Desk Ground Floor

Sunday: 15:00-20:00

Monday to Thursday: 07:00-18:00

Friday: 07:30-14:30

Scan your delegate’s badge for automatic

CFA Professional Development credits

Finance and economics Keynote and specialist speakers


Keynote speakers

CLSA economics and global strategy Christopher Wood Equity Strategist, CLSA

Eric Fishwick Head of Economic Research, CLSA Monday

Asia’s No.1-ranked strategist Christopher Wood and Head of Economic Research Eric Fishwick open our 20th CLSA Investors’ Forum with their assessments of the current state of the markets and emerging economies.

Internationally renowned for his weekly GREED & fear report, Chris is consistently ranked Asia’s top equity strategist by both Asiamoney (No.1 in 2006-12 and 2002-04) and Institutional Investor (No.1 in 2011-12, 2007-09 and 2003-05). Before joining the finance world, he was a journalist with The Economist and is the author of three highly acclaimed books: Boom & Bust, The Bubble Economy and The End of Japan Inc.

Eric joined CLSA in 1999 and became Head of Economic Research in November 2007. Named Asia’s top economist by Asiamoney in 2009, he has 20 years’ experience in financial markets and has worked in developed-economy forex and fixed-income markets as well as emerging-market equities. Before moving into the financial sector, Eric was permanent adviser to the British parliament at the House of Commons. He has also worked at the Industrial Bank of Japan and Nikko Europe. Eric holds an MA in economics and an MPhil in international relations from the University of Cambridge.

Finance and economics


Keynote speaker

The Great Recession is receding: What’s next? Stanley Fischer Former Governor, Bank of Israel (2005-13)

Monday

With most of the world beginning to emerge from the Great Recession, Stanley Fischer, former governor of the Bank of Israel, one of the most astutely led institutions to come out of the Great Financial Crisis, focuses on two sets of issues: the exit and the new normal.

The immediate challenge depends on the speed and effects, domestic and international, of Fed tapering, and of monetary policies in other countries. It depends too on the rates at which fiscal expansion is curtailed, and at which needed structural reforms are implemented. At present the USA leads in exiting, with the Eurozone lagging, and other countries in between and vulnerable.

For the long term, the main factors are whether the world is now entering a period of secularly slower growth; the economic performance of the largest countries; the policy leadership of the international economic system; and future demography.

Stanley Fischer stepped down as Governor of the Bank of Israel at the end of June 2013. He began his service as Governor in May 2005, and was reappointed for a second term in May 2010.

Prior to joining the Bank of Israel, Fischer was Vice Chairman of Citigroup from 2002 through 2005.

Fischer was the First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund from 1994 until 2001.

Before he joined the IMF, Fischer was the Killian Professor and Head of the Department of Economics at MIT. He was a member of the MIT Department of Economics from 1973 to 1994, when he left to join the IMF.

From 1988 to 1990 he was Vice President, Development Economics and Chief Economist at the World Bank.

He was born in Zambia in 1943.

He took the BSc (Econ) and MSc (Econ) at the London School of Economics from 1962-66, and obtained his PhD in economics at MIT in 1969. He was Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago until 1973, when he returned to the MIT Department of Economics as an Associate Professor. He became Professor of Economics in 1977. He has held visiting positions at Hebrew University, Jerusalem, and Hoover Institution at Stanford.



Keynote speaker

What QE cannot do Russell Napier Strategist, CLSA

Wednesday

QE was devised to keep the money supply growing and prevent debt deflation. In this it has succeeded: private-sector degearing has continued without deflation in the price of goods or assets. This has been very beneficial for asset owners. However, QE cannot prevent the addition of excess capacity, particularly if, as in China, that capacity is added in the pursuit of social goals and not profits. QE cannot prevent the decline of overvalued exchange rates in emerging markets and the burst of deflation that follows. Ultimately, QE cannot boost demand to soak up increased supply in an era when the baby-boomer generation is degearing and boosting savings in preparation for retirement. QE is the oil on the wheels to permit a lower degree of friction as prices adjust, but prices must still adjust lower. With policy rates near zero, such downward adjustment will take us to a world of sharply higher real interest rates and sharply lower asset prices as the limits to QE become all too clear.

Russell Napier is an Edinburgh-based consultant who writes about issues impacting global equity markets. Having spent two decades in the industry, he has contributed to the development and scope of CLSA’s equity research. Russell began his career in investment at Baillie Gifford in Edinburgh before joining CLSA in May 1995 as an Asian equity strategist in Hong Kong. He remained in that post until 1999. He is a director of the Scottish Investment Trust and the Mid Wynd International Trust. Russell runs a course at the Edinburgh Business School called ‘A practical history of financial markets’. His book Anatomy of the Bear: Learning from Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms has been published to critical and commercial acclaim.



Keynote speaker

Are ineptocractic governments in the most advanced economies largely responsible for the current economic malaise? Marc Faber Editor and Publisher, The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report

Friday

Different asset classes inflate and deflate at different times with different intensity. All types of “inflation” end eventually in a deflationary bust.

Fiscal and monetary policies have unintended consequences on asset prices; interest income; pension funds; credit growth and government debt; corporate profits; income and wealth inequality; capital spending; economic growth in the USA and emerging economies; commodity prices; and social and geopolitical tensions.

Paradoxically, monetary inflation creates great opportunities to invest in distressed assets. Marc Faber believes safety is achieved through diversification of assets in equities, cash and bonds, real estate and gold.

Described by Fortune magazine as a ‘congenital contrarian and shrewd Swiss investment advisor’, Faber is a Forum favourite whose insights, arguments and dry humour can be relied on to fill the room even on the morning after the Gala.

Known as Dr Doom for his widely read monthly investment newsletter, The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, which highlights unusual investment opportunities, Faber is the author of several books including Tomorrow’s Gold: Asia’s Age of Discovery. Published in 2002, it has since been reprinted and translated into Japanese, Chinese, Korean, Thai and German. Faber is also a regular contributor to leading financial publications around the world.

Born in Zurich, Switzerland, Faber studied economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD magna cum laude. For more than a decade, he was Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK), before setting up his eponymous investment-advisory and funds-management firm in 1990.



Specialist speaker

Policy failure: Cost of overcapacity Francis Cheung Head of China-HK Strategy, CLSA

Monday

Chinese government policy to rebalance the economy has been doomed from the start as the country has been too focused on growth in its annual plans. This has led to a doubling of debt and expansion of manufacturing capacity at a time of weak demand. There is little choice but to allow the economy to slow, but the transition is likely to be rocky with a sharp slowdown in 2014-15. Francis Cheung analyses the country’s excess-capacity problem and quantify the risk.

Specialist speaker

Strategy and market analysis through the lens of multiple risk models Olivier d'Assier Managing Director, Asia Pacific, Axioma

Monday

Central bankers, regulators and politicians have created an investment environment in which even company CEOs provide a very wide confidence interval around any earnings forecast past the next two quarters. With so much uncertainty in the return side of the equation, investors have instead begun to look at markets through the lens of risk models.

Using Axioma’s suite of daily fundamental and statistical models, across multiple forecast horizons, Olivier d'Assier provides unique insight into current investment conditions, examining how the investment landscape is changing, what is driving these changes and how investors can rebalance their portfolios to align themselves with the prevailing risk environment.

d'Assier is responsible for the performance, strategy and commercial success of Axioma’s operations in Asia Pacific and is a member of the firm’s global executive committee. Before joining Axioma, he spent seven years at Barra Inc as VP for Asia Pacific and President of Barra Japan, overseeing its operations in Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong, Sydney as well as the opening of the company’s first China office in Shanghai.



Specialist speaker

A city of two tales Derek Ovington Head of Asian Banks Research, CLSA

Tuesday

The HSBC group has long dominated Hong Kong’s banking system, Asia’s key regional financial centre. However, that hegemony is threatened by rising competition from mainland banks, notably Hang Seng Bank's arch-rival, Bank of China (HK). Furthermore, the Hong Kong banking system faces two major challenges in the coming years from the turn in US-dollar interest rates and the economic slowdown in the mainland. Join Derek Ovington as he reviews the structural changes in market shares and profitability over the past two decades to assess the implications of a tougher market environment in Hong Kong and China for market leaders HSBC/Hang Seng, Bank of China (HK) and Standard Chartered.

Specialist speaker

Unlocking growth Desh Peramunetilleke Head of Microstrategy Research, CLSA

Tuesday

“Value” strategies have been the dominant driver of Asian investment returns over the past 10 years, but CLSA believes the next decade belongs to “growth”. Markets tend to reward styles and factors with the lowest visibility. With Asia’s role as the world’s growth engine waning, the scarcity factor will drive the outperformance of growth strategies as investors focus on companies with sustainable growth. Indeed, the traditional pockets of cyclical growth have been impaired with overcapacity leading to suboptimal returns, while defensives are already trading at peak valuations. With emerging markets facing a growth scare due to rising yields in the USA, even Asian consumption and financials are at risk while exporters are the clear beneficiaries of the slow recovery in the West. As the hunt for growth intensifies, this talk offers investors several innovative options to capture the ever-shrinking pockets of growth. Some of the focus areas include margin-turnaround opportunities; unrecognised growth based on sustainable ROE; linkages between capex and future growth; underestimated growth with free cashflow higher than accounting EPS; and exporters with US/EU exposure.



Specialist speaker

Abenomics: Where to from here Nicholas Smith Japan Strategist, CLSA

Wednesday

Corporate profits have doubled over the past year and Prime Minister Abe is declaring ‘Japan is back’. Abenomics is made up of three ‘arrows’: monetary and fiscal stimulus, plus structural reform. Thus far, it has been strictly a one-arrow affair: bold monetary policies halted deflation, crushed the troublesome yen and drove up the stockmarket dramatically. Shinzō Abe won decisive victories in both the lower and upper house, earning him the power to execute almost any policy he cares to pursue. Will Abe have the intestinal fortitude now to push through the reforms that his predecessors dared not? Japan Strategist Nicholas Smith looks at how Abe will navigate the imposing problems of consumption-tax hikes, labour reform, Trans-Pacific Partnership entry and how it will pay for rebuilding Tohoku and quakeproofing Japan.

Specialist speaker

‘A’ opening to the Great Wall Christopher Ryan Managing Director and Head of Asia Pacific, MSCI Inc

Wednesday

Since the end of 2011, the Chinese authorities have accelerated the opening of the country’s domestic capital market. They have raised the total Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) quota from US$30bn to US$80bn, introduced a new Renminbi QFII (RQFII) scheme and lowered the QFII qualification requirements for various groups of investors. As the A-share market continues its path to liberalisation, China’s importance in a global emerging-markets portfolio is likely to rise. Investors who are not well prepared could be caught short in the process. In an extreme hypothetical scenario, if the QFII scheme were to be abolished and all access barriers were removed, the A-share market would comprise about 14% of the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index. This would increase the country’s total EM market weight from 18% to close to 30%.

Chris Ryan has more than 33 years of financial-services experience and has been in the investment-management business since 1983. Throughout his career, he has led a number of Asian regional investment-management firms, including one that is listed in Australia. He is now MSCI’s Head of Asia Pacific



Specialist speaker

Shock to the system: Japan’s pension dilemma lessons for Asia Jeff Uscher Head of Research, Jeff Uscher Consulting

Wednesday

Japan has the oldest population in the world and continues to age rapidly. What can be done to ensure that its pension system can support an unprecedented number of retirees? How are public and private pension schemes set up and how do they invest? The country's pensions are so huge that they influence global financial markets across all asset classes. Whether you invest in Japan or not, you need to understand how its pension system works because, from Singapore to Slovenia, Japanese money moves markets.

Jeff Uscher is the Head of Research at Jeff Uscher Consulting, a sole proprietorship providing research, marketing and translation services to industrial companies and financial-services providers. He has spent more than 35 years as an analyst, head of research and institutional salesman specialising in Japan’s equity markets. Uscher was the founding editor of Grant's Asia Observer, a biweekly newsletter focused on Asian economies and markets. He is a contributing writer to Money Morning, a website aimed at individual investors, and is a consultant to two companies that provide investment-advisory services to hedge funds and other institutional investors. Uscher lives on a 62-acre farm in upstate New York with his wife, grown-up children, too many pets and way too many chickens.

Specialist speaker

How to think about China Andy Rothman China Macro Strategist, CLSA

Wednesday

Many people, using a developed-country framework, are looking for the wrong problems in China. CLSA Macro Strategist Andy Rothman tells us what issues we really should worry about, and discusses how to decide which will be a “crisis”, as opposed to a complex problem that will be expensive to resolve. He also reveals the single most important trend in China, predicts the structural reforms that are likely to be launched at the November Party meeting and examines the country’s short and long-term macro prospects.



Specialist speaker

Korea strategy Shaun Cochran Head of Korea Research, CLSA

Wednesday

With real interest rates rising around the world, the question for a highly externally driven economy like Korea is: does this signal a global recovery or is it a function of unwinding the artificial price signals of QE? Shaun Cochran discusses why Korea’s external dependency has increased, not fallen, and to what degree a global recovery is embedded in share prices and where. He explains in detail why he removed his material Underweight in Samsung Electronics after the stock’s recent significant underperformance, and how he expects the ongoing rotation of funds away from emerging markets and Asean to create relative-return opportunities for North Asia and Korea despite a mixed absolute-return outlook.

Specialist speaker

Australia: Desperately seeking competitiveness Scott Ryall Head of Australia Research, CLSA

Wednesday

Australia has elected a new government with a clear majority and an ability to rule. This comes at a critical time for the domestic economy: the resources-investment boom has peaked in 2013 but other sectors may not increase spending to offset the potential investment gap. This is due to a combination of consumers adapting to the new norm of prudent spending, subdued business confidence under the Labour government and reduced competitiveness of Australian industry due to cost inflation, productivity declines and a high Aussie dollar. What will the coalition government do? Will sentiment turn? What is the impact of a lower Australian dollar? Who are the winners and which are the must-own Aussie companies? What should you avoid? Scott Ryall unveils all in this session.



Specialist speaker

The impact of quantitative easing and its withdrawal Avinash Persaud Executive Fellow, London Business School

Thursday

Few issues are more frequently discussed and felt across global markets than the upcoming withdrawal of quantitative and qualitative easing by some of the world’s major central banks. Since the arrival of near-zero interest rates in 2008 in response to the great credit crunch, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England have engaged in non-traditional monetary easing to an unprecedented degree. In the USA, the large-scale scheme to purchase long-dated government bonds and expand the money supply has nearly tripled the Fed’s balance sheet. The policy has raised concerns about future inflation and the solvency of central banks. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s recent hints that we may be near the beginning of the end of QE has caused significant dislocation across bond and equity markets in the developed and emerging worlds. This session, based on a forthcoming CLSA U Blue Book, answers what exactly quantitative easing is, how it is meant to work, how it has been implemented and how it will be withdrawn. It analyses the real impact of quantitative easing and, in light of this, the implications of a withdrawal for bond, currency and equity markets in the developed and emerging worlds.

Avinash Persaud’s career spans finance, academia and public policy. He has held senior executive posts at several of the largest global investment firms. He is the Chairman of financial-advisory firm Intelligence Capital and the Non-Executive Chairman of emerging-market investment bank Elara Capital. He is also a director on the boards of Beacon Insurance as well as RBC Latin America and the Caribbean. He is an Executive Fellow at the London Business School, an Emeritus Professor of Gresham College and a former Governor of the London School of Economics.

Specialist speaker

India: Deciphering the new normal Rajeev Malik Senior Economist, CLSA

Thursday

India’s emergence from the current economic malaise will be gradual, uneven and protracted. The less-favourable global liquidity backdrop will make the transition more challenging as it will have adverse implications for the rupee and the country’s monetary policy. The outcome of the next general election, which is due by May 2014, will also affect investor and business confidence. India’s favourable structural drivers have not disintegrated permanently. However, their pro-growth constructive role will warrant an active government that focuses on structural changes in the real economy to unlock the country’s latent growth potential.



Specialist speaker

Fall before the rise Laurence Balanco Head of Technical Research, CLSA

Thursday

Laurence Balanco provides a technical framework to examine general cycles and structures that are set to drive regional and global equity markets. In the near term, global markets remain vulnerable to the negative effects of the typical seasonal pattern and the US presidential cycle. Laurence gauges the potential duration of the decline in global equity markets and the best time to start buying equities again.

Specialist speaker

Economic development and the middle-income trap Ilian Mihov Professor of Economics, INSEAD

Thursday

The rapid ascent of several Asian economies and other emerging markets around the world has prompted questions about the sustainability of growth in these countries. Will China and India continue to grow and reach the stages of the USA and Western Europe? Will Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey or Nigeria follow the same growth trajectory? Do these changes represent a permanent shift in the economic landscape, or are they just transitory spurts of growth that will be annihilated soon by rising inflation, trade wars or another round of currency crises?

The session places these trends within a framework for understanding economic development in order to evaluate the sustainability of growth in emerging markets. Historically, the majority of developing countries have shown disappointing economic performance and only in the past 15 years has their growth become consistent with convergence to the advanced economies. More specifically, development of many “rising stars” in the past has suddenly stopped when they reached middle-income levels. What is behind the hurdle of middle income? Why do some countries overcome this hurdle while others stagnate? Ilian Mihov discusses a range of risk factors that in the past have derailed countries from their growth path.

Mihov was appointed Interim Dean of INSEAD on 1 March 2013. Since 2011, he has served as Deputy Dean for Faculty and Research responsible for the recruitment of new faculty, as well as for the development of more than 140 professors at INSEAD. He also oversees the PhD programme at the graduate business school and its Research and Development Committee.

Mihov holds a PhD degree from Princeton University and a BSc degree in business administration from the Moore School of Business at the University of South Carolina where, in 2006, he was recognised as a Distinguished Young Alumnus.



Specialist speaker

Thailand: Reinventing the cycle Anthony Nafte Senior Economist, CLSA

Thursday

The investment cycle that kicked off in Thailand in 2011 was a mirage. The current account has become a major risk. Infrastructure megaprojects hardly ever materialise in emerging Asean. Thaksinomics was an attempt to reinvent the economic cycle favouring domestic demand over export-led growth. This has been repudiated with the slump in domestic demand.

Anthony Nafte argues that a true manufacturing-led investment cycle will start in 2014. The risk of current-account deficit will decline. The infrastructure project has a sound economic rationale. The services-driven investment cycle is real but very slow-moving. It will gain pace from increasing connectivity and expanding markets in the peripheral provinces.



Specialist speaker

Indonesian economy: Recent development, prospects and challenges Muhamad Chatib Basri Finance Minister, Republic of Indonesia

Thursday

Amid a depreciating rupiah, a current-account deficit and infrastructure challenges, Indonesia has had a rough year. However, looking at these issues in isolation does not tell the whole story. The government is committed to steadying the economy, maintaining macroeconomic stability, making structural changes and pushing an investor-friendly reform agenda. Headwinds and short-term bumps are inevitable, but there is growing recognition that growth needs to slow in order to stabilise the economy.

In this session, finance minister Muhamad Chatib Basri divulges Indonesia’s secular long-term story, which is supported by the solid pillars of demographic dividends, an expanding middle class, a robust investment cycle, a healthy banking system and democracy.

Basri was an adviser to the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs during 2004-05. He served as the Deputy Minister of Finance for G-20 during 2006-10 and sherpa of the Indonesian President Dr Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at the G-20 Summit in Washington in November 2008. During 2010-12, he was the Vice Chairman of the National Economic Committee of the President of the Republic of Indonesia. Then he was appointed the Chairman of the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) from June 2012. He became the Minister of Finance on 21 May 2013 but is still serving as the Chairman of BKPM until his replacement is determined.

Basri graduated from the Faculty of Economics, Universitas Indonesia, where he was named the most outstanding student of the faculty as well as the university. Subsequently, he won scholarship to continue his postgraduate studies and obtained his master’s degree in economic development in 1996 and doctoral degree in economics in 2001 from Australian National University. He started his career as a research assistant at various local and international educational institutions.

Many of Basri’s papers have been published in science, media and education journals and he has presented at an International Policy Advisory Group workshop and at the Ash Centre at Harvard Kennedy School.



Specialist speaker

Don't stop thinking about tomorrow Hal Hershfield Assistant Professor of Marketing, Stern School of Business, New York University

Friday

Throughout much of the world, people are living longer than they ever have before. In the next few decades alone, the number of 100-year-olds will rise by a factor of 20. Unfortunately, psychologists have shown that people generally choose to satisfy their immediate needs at the expense of their longer-term ones. Hal Hershfield reviews a growing body of work that focuses on how perceptions of the self over time can dramatically impact these choices: when the future self shares similarities with the present self, when it is viewed in vivid and realistic terms and when it is seen in a positive light, people are more willing to make choices today that may benefit them in the years to come.

Hershfield is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at New York University’s Stern School of Business. His research focuses on judgment and decision-making and social psychology, with a particular interest in how thinking about time can strongly affect decision-making and emotional experience. His work has been published/featured on ABC World News, The New York Times, Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, NPR and Forbes. He received his PhD in psychology from Stanford University and his BA from Tufts University.

Specialist speaker

Mastering your emotions to develop and maintain your peak-performance investment mind J Rande Howell Owner, Trader’s State of Mind

Friday

This session presents a radically new way of understanding the influence of emotion on your thinking and performance, how emotional regulation can dampen the power of emotion to influence your investment decisions and how mindfulness can be used to allow you to recognise that you and your thoughts are different from one another. You will also learn how to activate and think from emotionally based programmes in the brain that create a mindset rooted in disciplined impartiality in the midst of investment portfolio management. You will learn how to manage your emotions in the pressurised environment of managing your portfolio. This is what creates the psychological edge in active trading.

Rande Howell helps clients develop a peak-performance state of mind. A licensed therapist and performance coach, his work is rooted in emotional intelligence, mindfulness and Jungian archetypes. It centres around first learning how to regulate emotion, so that it no longer hijacks the rational mind. Freed from self-limiting historical pattern, the mind can then be redeveloped for higher levels of performance. Howell is the author of four books, including Mindful trading: Mastering your emotions and the inner game. He provides educational content for Traders Expo and is a speaker for many organisations including OIC and AfTA. Also, he is currently an education specialist for CLSA.

Science, technology and innovation

Keynote and specialist speakers


Keynote speaker

Making data more human Jer Thorp Former Data Artist-in-Residence, The New York Times

Monday

Jer Thorp shares his beautiful and moving data-visualisation projects, helping audiences put abstract data into a human context. From graphing an entire year’s news cycle, to mapping the way people share articles across the internet, to the 9/11 Memorial in Manhattan, Thorp's cutting-edge visualisations use technology and data to help us learn about the way we use digital technologies, become more empathetic in the data age and, ultimately, tell the story of our lives. How can understanding the human side of data lead to innovation and effective change? What value is there in the novel and interactive approaches to data visualisation? And, what are the business applications of creative data-focused research? Thorp teaches audiences how adding meaning and narrative to huge amounts of data can help people take control of the information that surrounds them, and revolutionise the way we utilise data.

Thorp is the former Data Artist-in-Residence at The New York Times. His software-based art has been featured all over the world. His art brings big data sets to life, combining state-of-the-art science with a natural interest in the human condition. His “Cascade” project at The New York Times visualises the sharing of content through social media, offering tremendous insight into the way we use digital networks to share, influence and connect with others. He was also a major contributor to the 9/11 Memorial project in New York City, where he wrote a programme that organised the names of victims not by alphabetical order, but by relationships - putting coworkers next to coworkers, and brothers next to brothers. Originally from Vancouver, he lives in New York City, where, along with his work at The New York Times, he teaches in New York University’s ITP programme. To investigate the entailments of Big Data, Thorp helped launch The Office for Creative Research with his peers.

Thorp’s award-winning software-based work has been exhibited in Europe, Asia, North America and South America, including in the Museum of Modern Art in Manhattan. He has more than a decade of teaching experience, in Langara College’s Electronic Media Design Programme, at the Vancouver Film School and as an artist-in-residence at the Emily Carr University of Art and Design. He recently presented at The Ford Foundation in New York City, at the National Academies, and he is a member of the World Economic Forum's Global Agenda Council on Design Innovation.



Keynote speaker

Exponential breakthroughs on the road to abundance Peter Diamandis Chairman and CEO, X PRIZE Foundation Cofounder and Executive Chairman, Singularity University

Tuesday

Dr Peter H Diamandis’ work focuses on driving breakthroughs using exponential technologies to create a world of abundance. In this keynote speech, he first provides an overview of key exponentially growing technologies: artificial intelligence, robotics, computational systems, networks & sensors, 3D printing, space and synthetic biology.

He then discusses how breakthroughs in these areas will transform products, companies, industries and even society over the next 20 years. He explains how transformation of the human society from “local and linear” to “global and exponential” is causing disruptive stress or disruptive opportunity, depending on a company’s point of view and agility. These technologies are also leading to the great epoch of wealth creation, where new billion-dollar startups are coming out of seemingly nowhere at a time when 50 and 100 year-old billion-dollar enterprises are going out of business.

Diamandis closes his talk by examining human need by category - water, food, energy, healthcare, education, communication and freedom - and how the world’s largest grand challenges are humanity’s biggest market opportunities. For the first time ever, entrepreneurs are now able to positively affect the lives of one billion people, helping transform the planet while creating great wealth at the same time.

Diamandis is an international pioneer in the commercial space arena, having founded and run many of the leading entrepreneurial companies in the sector. He is the Chairman and CEO of X PRIZE Foundation, best known for its US$10m Ansari X PRIZE for private spaceflight. He is also the Executive Chairman of Singularity University based in Silicon Valley and Cofounder/Co-Chairman of Planetary Resources.

Diamandis serves as Cofounder and Co-Vice Chairman of Space Adventures, the only company to have brokered the launches of private citizens to the International Space Station. He is the author of Abundance: The Future is Better Than You Think, which debuted at No.1 on Amazon’s bestseller list and No.2 on The New York Times’ when it was published last year.

Diamandis earned his undergraduate degree in molecular genetics and graduate degree in aerospace engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and received his MD from Harvard Medical School. He has won multiple awards, including the 2007 Arthur C Clarke Award for innovation, the 2006 Lindbergh Award, the 2006 Neil Armstrong Award for Aerospace Achievement and Leadership, and first place in the Estes Rocket Design Contest when he was an eighth-grader. His mission is to open the space frontier for humanity. His personal motto is ‘The best way to predict the future is to create it yourself’.



Keynote speaker

The new digital age: Reshaping the future of people, nations & business Jared Cohen Author, The New Digital Age

Wednesday

Within the next decade, approximately five billion people will start going online. ‘The next five billion’, as they’re being called, are vastly different from the current two billion who populate the digital sphere, however. They will come from the most problematic parts of the world - regions wrought with political and economic instability - and will require drastically different customer service than the current “first world” users.

In this highly innovative and forward-thinking keynote - drawing on his book, coauthored with Google executive chairman and former CEO Eric Schmidt, The New Digital Age: Reshaping the Future of People, Nations and Business - Jared Cohen examines how this shift in online demographics will affect geopolitics and corporations, individuals and groups alike, as businesses and financial institutions strive to understand the needs and attributes of their new customer base. Cohen is the Director of Google Ideas, an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and the coauthor of The New York Times bestseller The New Digital Age: Reshaping the Future of People, Nations and Business. Previously, he served as a member of the Secretary of State's Policy Planning Staff and as a close adviser to Condoleezza Rice and Hillary Clinton. He was named one of Time’s 100 Most Influential People in 2013.

Cohen has conducted research in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan and throughout Africa. As part of his research, he has interviewed members of Al-Qaeda, Hezbollah and the Taliban. He is the author of Children of Jihad and One Hundred Days of Silence. He coauthored with Schmidt the article, ‘The Digital Disruption: Connectivity and the Diffusion of Power’, which appeared in Foreign Affairs magazine just a few months before the Arab Spring.

The New Digital Age offers a vision of our increasingly interconnected future, answering the question of how everything in the physical world will change over the next decade as five billion new users enter the digital world. Among Cohen’s additional publications are ‘Diverting the Radicalization Track’ on Policy Review; ‘Iran’s De Facto Opposition: Youth in Post-revolutionary Iran’ on SAIS Review; and ‘Passive Revolution: Is Political Resistance Dead or Alive in Iran’ on Hoover Digest.

Cohen received his BA from Stanford University and his MPhil in international relations from Oxford University, where he studied as a Rhodes Scholar.



Keynote speaker

Denialism: The growing phenomenon of people rejecting scientific truths Michael Specter Staff Writer, The New Yorker

Thursday

Scientific knowledge is moving forward faster than at any time in human history. In many fields progress can be measured in weeks rather than years or decades. Yet, rapid technological advances have been met not just with scepticism but also denialism: no matter how powerful the data, people refuse to accept facts they don't happen to like. The results have been deadly and promise to get worse: an unfounded fear of vaccines has led to outbreaks of preventable diseases like measles and pertussis throughout the Western world; humanity’s role in climate change is questioned despite mountains of convincing evidence; and despite the endorsement of authoritative scientific bodies on every continent, genetically engineered food, which has the potential to help feed billions, is opposed violently. Many of our celebrities, and even some of our most famous and honoured doctors, mislead millions on television with half truths and ignored facts.

How do we fight for progress when the truth doesn't seem to matter?

Michael Specter has been a staff writer at The New Yorker since 1998 and published the original edition of Denialism: How Irrational Thinking Harms the Planet and Threatens Our Lives in 2009. He writes often about science, technology and public health. Since joining the magazine, he has written several articles about the global Aids epidemic, as well as about avian influenza, malaria, diminishing freshwater resources, synthetic biology and the debate over the meaning of our carbon footprint. He has also published many profiles, of subjects including Lance Armstrong, the ethicist Peter Singer, Sean (P Diddy) Combs, Manolo Blahnik and Miuccia Prada.

Specter joined The New Yorker from The New York Times, where he had been a roving foreign correspondent based in Rome. From 1995 to 1998, he served as the Time’s Moscow bureau chief. Before Time, he was with The Washington Post, where, from 1985 to 1991, he covered local news, before becoming the Post’s national science reporter and, later, its New York bureau chief. In 1996, he won the Overseas Press Club’s Citation for Excellence award for his reporting from Chechnya. He twice received the Global Health Council’s annual Excellence in Media Award, first for his 2001 article about Aids, ‘India’s Plague’, and then for his 2004 article, ‘The Devastation’, about the ethics of testing HIV vaccines in Africa. In 2002, he received the AAAS Science Journalism Award for his article, ‘Rethinking the Brain’, about the scientific basis of how we learn.



Keynote speaker

The spies we trust Christopher Soghoian Privacy Researcher, American Civil Liberties Union

Thursday

Government surveillance has changed. In the past, surveillance was focused on specific individuals, who were typically suspected of a crime, or a high-value target identified by intelligence agencies. Increasingly though, governments now search through the communications of hundreds of millions of people for patterns and keywords. In order to do so, governments have been forced to turn to the private sector for help.

The companies that provide you with telephone, email, social networking and internet services all collaborate with governments. They routinely disclose their customers’ communications and other private data to law-enforcement and intelligence agencies. In some cases, they are required to do so by law; in others, they do so voluntarily, often for a profit.

Although many companies claim to care about the privacy of their customers, few seem to be willing to compete on the extent to which they assist or resist government surveillance. This talk pierces the veil of secrecy surrounding the ways in which the companies we trust often violate it.

Christopher Soghoian is a privacy researcher and activist, working at the intersection of technology, law and policy.

He is the Principal Technologist and a Senior Policy Analyst with the Speech, Privacy and Technology Project at the American Civil Liberties Union. He is also a Visiting Fellow at Yale Law School’s Information Society Project and a Fellow at the Centre for Applied Cybersecurity Research at Indiana University. He is based in Washington, DC

Soghoian completed his PhD at Indiana University in 2012, which focused on the role that third-party service providers play in facilitating law-enforcement surveillance of their customers. In order to gather data, he has made extensive use of the Freedom of Information Act, sued the Department of Justice pro se and used several other investigative research methods. His research has appeared in publications including the Berkeley Technology Law Journal and been cited by several federal courts, including the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals.

Between 2009 and 2010, he was the first-ever in-house technologist at the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) Division of Privacy and Identity Protection, where he worked on investigations of Facebook, Twitter, MySpace and Netflix. Prior to joining the FTC, he co-created the Do Not Track privacy anti-tracking mechanism now adopted by all major web browsers.

Soghoian is a TEDGlobal 2012 Fellow, was an Open Society Foundations Fellow between 2011 and 2012, and was a Student Fellow at the Berkman Centre for Internet & Society at Harvard University over 2008-09.



Specialist speaker

No more Moore? The future of semiconductor manufacturing Chris Mack Gentleman Scientist, Lithoguru.com

Monday

The impact of the semiconductor integrated circuit (IC) on modern life has been so profound that it is now often taken for granted: we have come to expect increasingly sophisticated electronic products at ever lower prices. Underlying the electronics revolution has been a remarkable evolutionary trend called Moore’s Law, which has come to represent the amazing and seemingly inexhaustible capacity for exponential growth in electronics.

Dr Chris A Mack writes, teaches and consults on the field of semiconductor microlithography. He is also an adjunct faculty member at the University of Texas at Austin and spent the fall 2006 semester as a visiting professor at the University of Notre Dame and the summer (winter!) of 2011 as a Visiting Erskine Fellow at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New Zealand.

He received his Bachelor of Science degrees in physics, chemistry, electrical engineering and chemical engineering from Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology in 1982, a Master of Science degree in electrical engineering from the University of Maryland in 1989 and a PhD in chemical engineering from the University of Texas at Austin in 1998.

Specialist speakers

Value shift: Hardware shrinks, software wins Nicolas Baratte Head of Technology Research, CLSA

Ed Maguire Software Analyst, CLSA Americas

Monday

In the USA, a new breed of firms are redefining enterprise software and pushing the limits of software virtualisation. The advances of cloud computing architecture further decouple applications from the underlying infrastructure. Hyper-scale internet firms redefine scope and scale of computing, accelerating hardware commoditisation. The soft machines will soon rule over the hard machines. The trend is accelerating with open-source mobility and new services models disrupting infrastructure software and hardware incumbents, pressuring margins.

In Asia, hardware and semiconductors dominate and few firms have exposure to enterprise software, cloud and virtualisation. After outperforming the market for three years, Asia tech is facing several negative trends: declining PC units; stagnant TV sales; smartphone and tablet growth that relies on low-ASP, thin-margin products. Most hardware firms are facing low or negative earnings growth. The semi sector has consolidated with known market leaders - positive but further upside is unlikely.



Specialist speaker

3D printing and the third industrial revolution Paul Markillie Innovation Editor, The Economist

Tuesday

Driven by new economic headwinds and novel technologies, manufacturing is undergoing profound changes. As China moves from rapid investment-led growth to more balanced consumption - and with no other emerging-market economy likely to provide a similar-sized boom - some production is already being relocated back to America and Europe.

Instead of seeking out places with the lowest wages to outsource production, manufacturing will increasingly be located within the markets or regions in which the products being made are designed to serve. This process is being enhanced by five remarkable technologies converging: much cleverer computer-design software; new materials; cheaper and better robots; online manufacturing services; and radically different production process, such as 3D printing. In a phrase, manufacturing is going digital and like other industries that have undergone a digital revolution, the transformation will be hugely beneficial to the consumer but greatly disruptive for the companies involved.

Paul Markillie is a senior editor at The Economist. In 1994 he moved to Hong Kong to become the magazine’s first Asian business correspondent and in 2008 he became Innovation Editor, a newly created post. Markillie principally writes about new technologies and their implications in business, travelling widely and interviewing many companies and research organisations. In 2012, he wrote The Economist’s special report ‘The Third Industrial Revolution’, which attracted worldwide interest.

Specialist speaker

Chin@ e-volution Paul McKenzie Consultant, CLSA

Tuesday

The pending IPO of Alibaba will for the first time give investors access to a large, liquid stock that represents a direct play on China’s booming e-commerce sector. Every fund manager with a global, Asian, consumer or tech mandate will need to look at this stock and, in turn, have some basic understanding of China’s e-commerce market. This presentation, accompanied by a major new report, aims to give them that understanding. Paul McKenzie’s career at CLSA spans nearly 20 years, during which he has headed several sector research teams.



Specialist speaker

From scarcity to abudance: The coming disruption of IT John Zysman Professor, University of California, Berkeley

Tuesday

The world of enterprise computing is undergoing a fundamental transformation. It is a generational change as significant as that from the mainframe to the PC, and it is poised to be just as disruptive. Cloud computing is a radically new way of delivering computing resources - in essence, a computing-resource-management model. We are moving from a world built on computing scarcity to one of abundance. The implications for companies that build their business models on the economics of scarcity are profound.

John Zysman has been a professor at the University of California, Berkeley since 1974. In 1982, he cofounded the Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy (BRIE) - an international focal point for out-of-the-box thinking on the new networked economy. His teaching and research focus on technology, trade, and European and Asian political economies.

Zysman’s path-finding book, Manufacturing Matters: The Myth of the Post-Industrial Economy, remains an enduring driver of economic development policy and strategy for both governments and companies. Recent updates to that work include ‘Twenty First Century Manufacturing and Services with Everything: How the ICT Transformation of Services Has Changed Global Competition’. He was cofounder of the Innovation Alliance, an effort by the offices of the prime ministers of Finland and Denmark to build strategic alliances with California to consider how advanced countries should respond to emerging challenges in the global economy. He has been a lead speaker in programmes such as the Brussels Economic Forum, the high-level interministerial meetings under the Belgian Presidency of the European Community, at the Shok Summit in Helsinki and at Green Korea in 2010 and 2012. Books forthcoming in 2013 include: The Third Globalization: Can Rich Countries Stay Wealthy in a Changing Global Economy?; Can Green Sustain Growth: From the Religion to the Reality of Sustainable Prosperity: Energy Systems Transformation for Sustainable Prosperity.



Specialist speaker

Fast forward: China’s middle class dare to dream David Murphy Head of China Reality Research, CLSA

Tuesday

Back in 2007, China Reality Research (CRR) launched Mr & Mrs China, an innovative, grassroots study looking at the urban middle class across the country. Six years on, CRR has revisited the theme to see what has changed for the Chinese middle class. It turns out, quite a lot.

David looks at the state of the Chinese middle class today, where they are investing, spending and saving their money. His new report contains some stark findings on the correlation between wealth and emigration, and the burgeoning importance of social and environmental issues. It also suggests that several of the key issues worrying investors about China are not keeping Mr & Mrs China up at night. Compared to six years ago, they are wealthier, have better access to credit and higher rates of home and car ownership.

Middle-class aspirations remain very high but they are no longer just focused on the material. They have moved up the bourgeois hierarchy of needs. They want to travel overseas, go to the movies and buy a nicer car. They are willing to pay a premium for clean air, clean food and a good education for their child. And if they can’t get these things at home, they are willing to emigrate.

Join David to see what’s changed for China’s middle classes and where they go from here.



Specialist speaker

Hot house for accelerated innovation: China and global technology development Edward Steinfeld Professor of Political Science, Brown University

Tuesday

China, an obvious source for product demand and low-cost manufacturing, is rarely seen as a place to go for innovation. In recent years, however, the Chinese ecosystem has become a globally leading source for particular types of engineering-intensive capabilities for innovation. These capabilities, residing at the intersection between upstream invention (generally performed outside China) and downstream fabrication, permit high-tempo scale-up, unprecedented speed to market, enhanced product functionality, better design for manufacture and extensive cost out. Perhaps most important, these capabilities permit new forms of networked production and cross-border technology development.

This talk examines how China-centric innovation interacts with complementary technology innovation taking place in the United States and Western Europe. Specific examples are drawn from the renewable-energy technology sector (including wind and solar), machine building (large-scale manufacturing equipment), mobile-handset production and semiconductor design. A key point is that overseas firms now need to be present in China not just to sell or to outsource, but to learn. The session concludes with a discussion of various approaches overseas technology partners and investors can take to access and learn from China's emergent innovation capabilities.

Edward Steinfeld is a professor of political science and holder of the Dean’s Chair in China Studies at Brown University. Prior to joining Brown, Steinfeld served for 17 years on the faculty of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. During the 2012-13 academic year, he was a visiting scholar at the Tsinghua University School of Public Policy and Management, where he also serves as a member of the Academic Board.



Specialist speaker

Commodity Kong: How the scale game beats smartphone commoditisation Matt Evans Senior Technology Analyst, CLSA

Wednesday

Apple and Samsung Electronics have been pushed to extraordinarily low valuations on fears of smartphone commoditisation. There is the idea that all handset manufacturers are now producing essentially the same product at the same cost, in which case Apple and Samsung’s profit will inevitably collapse. But if this is the case, why haven’t HTC, LG, Sony, Nokia and Motorola been able to profitably enter the premium market? And why does the three-year-old iPhone 4S still sell for more than US$500? Matt Evans examines the problems with the commoditisation thesis and the classic buying opportunity this has presented for value investors.

Specialist speaker

Start of the mobile-internet boom Elinor Leung Head of Asia Telecom & Internet Research, CLSA

Wednesday

Mobile internet is likely to enter a boom period in China in 2014-15. Policy support is evident with the granting of 4G licences and the new National Broadband Strategy, which targets 85% fixed-line and mobile internet coverage by 2020. Internet companies will benefit and the sector will be the bright spot of a slowing economy.

Elinor Leung expects strong share performance to continue although the sector is already up 62% YTD. Mobile games have enjoyed explosive growth this year and mobile advertising has started to gain real traction. Smartphone-based e-commerce should start penetrating lower-tier cities rapidly and be more far-reaching than physical stores. Online travel rides both e-commerce and tourism booms. Company-wise, leading internet giants have emerged stronger from heavy investments in the past few years, and Alibaba’s upcoming IPO will most certainly draw global investor interest.

Demographics, consumer, health and sports Keynote and specialist speakers


Keynote speaker

The world until yesterday: What can we learn from traditional societies? Jared Diamond Professor, University of California, Los Angeles

Tuesday

Most of us take for granted the features of our modern society, from air travel and telecommunications to literacy and obesity. Yet for nearly all of its six million years of existence, human society had none of these things. Jared Diamond provides a mesmerising firsthand picture of the human past as it had been for millions of years, and considers what the differences between that past and our present mean for our lives today. This is Diamond's most personal presentation to date, as he draws extensively from his decades of fieldwork in the Pacific islands, as well as evidence from Inuit, Amazonian Indians, Kalahari San people, and others. He doesn't romanticise traditional societies, but he finds that their solutions to universal human problems such as child rearing, elder care, dispute resolution, risk and physical fitness have much to teach us.

Diamond is the author of Pulitzer Prize-winning Guns, Germs and Steel and Collapse. In his new book, The World until Yesterday, he compares life in modern, industrialised societies with the old days and argues that the traditional ways have much to teach us about conflict resolution, care of elders and children, risk management, multilingualism and nutrition. The book debuted in the top three of The New York Times’ bestseller list in late 2012.

With a unique blend of anthropology, sociology and evolutionary biology, Diamond depicts a way of life that is startlingly different from the way we live today. Focusing on how we can improve contemporary society by learning lessons from the past, Diamond’s message is both urgent and persuasive: with some thought and effort, we can have the best of both worlds. The New York Times calls Diamond's writing ‘one of the most significant projects embarked upon by any intellectual of our generation’.

Currently a professor of geography at UCLA, Diamond is also the author of two other bestselling books, The Third Chimpanzee and Why Is Sex Fun?. He has received some of the world's most prestigious awards, including a MacArthur Genius Grant, the Dickson Prize in Science, the Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement and the National Medal of Science, America's highest civilian award in science.

Demographics, consumer, health and sports


Keynote speaker

A conversation with David Beckham David Beckham UNICEF Ambassador

Wednesday

English sportsman and international football star David Beckham joins us to discuss his sporting career, charitable work and life after football.

Beckham is one of the world’s most iconic figures, with a glittering career that has spanned more than 20 years. The former England captain has played for several of the world’s biggest football clubs including Manchester United, Real Madrid, AC Milan, Los Angeles Galaxy and Paris Saint-German. He became the first English player to win league titles in four countries. After announcing his retirement at the end of the 2012-13 season, he played his final game collecting his 10th league title as PSG won Ligue 1.

Beckham's professional career began with Manchester United where he made his first-team debut in 1992 aged 17. With United, Beckham won the Premier League title six times, the FA Cup twice and the UEFA Champions League in 1999. He then played four seasons with Real Madrid, winning the La Liga championship in his final season with the club. In July 2007, Beckham signed a five-year contract with major league soccer club Los Angeles Galaxy in a groundbreaking global partnership.

At 21, Beckham made his foray into international football, making his England debut on 1 September 1996. He was captain for six years, during which time he led the team 58 times, eventually going on to become the most capped outfield player in the country’s history. He has twice been runner-up for FIFA World Player of the Year and was the first British footballer to play 100 Champions League matches.

Off the field, Beckham has supported UNICEF since his days at Manchester United. In January 2005, he became a Goodwill Ambassador with a special focus on UNICEF’s Sports for Development programme.

More recently, Beckham has pledged his support for the current Unite for children, Unite Against AIDS campaign. He is also a patron of the Elton John Aids Foundation, a founding member of the Malaria No More UK Leadership Council and MLS W.O.R.K.S, charities related to the Major League Soccer, teaching skills to disadvantaged youth in the USA. In March 2013, he was named the first global ambassador for Chinese football.



Keynote speaker

Minding my mitochondria to defeat progressive multiple sclerosis Terry Wahls Clinical Professor of Medicine, University of Iowa

Thursday

Dr Terry Wahls is a professor of medicine and a patient with a chronic progressive neurological disorder. Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis confined her to a tilt recline wheelchair for four years. Wahls expected to become bedridden by her disease. However by using her own research, Functional Medicine and Paleo Principles, she created a programme focused on maximising the health of her mitochondria. Within a year, she was able to walk freely without a cane and even complete a 28-mile bike ride with her family. In this session, Wahls tells her remarkable story and teaches us about the connections between the health of our mitochondria and the health of our bodies. She links mitochondrial dysfunction and the explosion of chronic disease and healthcare costs, and provides a roadmap for restoring health and reducing healthcare costs both individually and globally.

As a clinical professor of medicine at the University of Iowa, Wahls teaches internal medicine residents in their primary care continuity of care clinics, sees patients in a traumatic brain injury clinic and conducts clinical trials. She is the author of Minding My Mitochondria: How I overcame secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) and got out of my wheelchair and The Wahls Protocol: How I Beat Progressive MS Using Paleo Principles and Functional Medicine, due to be released in March 2014. She is committed to teaching the public and medical community about the healing power of the Paleo diet and therapeutic lifestyle changes to restore health and vitality.



Keynote speaker

The signal and the noise: How advisers should value predictions, filter out unreliable data and incorporate useful data into their activities Nate Silver Editor-in-Chief, FiveThirtyEight.com, ESPN

Friday

Based on his bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise, author Nate Silver looks at how data-based predictions underpin a growing sector of critical fields, from political polling and hurricane watches to the stockmarket and even the war on terror. That means it’s important to ask: what kind of predictions can we trust? What methods do the most reliable forecasters use? What sorts of things can be predicted - and what can’t? Silver takes us on a tour of modern prediction science and the implications for investment advisers trying to make sense of it all, uncovering a surprising connection among humility, uncertainty and good results.

Silver has become today’s leading statistician through his innovative analyses of political polling. He first gained national attention during the 2008 US presidential election, when he correctly predicted the results of the primaries and the presidential winner in 49 states.

Silver runs the award-winning political website FiveThirtyEight.com, on which he publishes a running forecast of current elections and hot-button issues. Now published on The New York Times website, FiveThirtyEight.com has made Silver the public face of statistical analysis and political forecasting.

Before he came to politics, Silver established his credentials as an analyst of baseball statistics. He developed a widely acclaimed system called Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA), which predicts player performance, career development and seasonal winners and losers. He is the author of a series of books on baseball statistics, which include Mind Game, Baseball between the Numbers and It Ain’t Over ‘til It’s Over. Silver has written for ESPN.com, Sports Illustrated, Slate, New York Sun and The New York Times. His work has been reported in such publications as The New York Times, Newsweek, Huffington Post and Vanity Fair.

Silver has been honoured by a series of accolades, including Time’s 100 Most Influential People of 2009 and Rolling Stone’s 100 Agents of Change. Most recently, Fast Company names him No. 1 of the 100 Most Creative People in Business 2013 and Creativity magazine puts him on its Creativity 50 2013 list. FiveThirtyEight.com won Best Political Coverage in the Weblog Awards in 2008.



Specialist speaker

Lively ghost cities Nicole Wong Regional Head of Property Research, CLSA

Monday

This year, apart from the usual discussion of which property markets in the region to own or to avoid, Nicole Wong also digs into a special phenomenon in the biggest housing market of all: Chinese ghost cities. Many would doubt the robustness of China’s property markets after seeing rows and rows of empty flats in cities featured by CNN, or statistically deriving that every middle-income Chinese household probably has two or more flats. What is the true level of demand and magnitude of excess in the mainland housing market? Starting with the worst parts - the “ghost cities” of Zhengzhou and Ordos - and the speculator paradise of Wenzhou, Nicole is surprised that the worst is not as bad as many might think.

Specialist speaker

Demographics: The force for the 21st Century Sarah Harper Professor, University of Oxford

Monday

The 21st Century will see a marked change in the size, distribution and age composition of Asia's population. Emerging economies will account for 97% of growth to 2050, when over half of the global population will live in Asia. In addition, Asia will become mature by 2040 with more than one fifth of its residents (some one billion people) aged 60-plus compared to less than one billion aged below 15. This will arise through rapidly falling birth rates, increasing life expectancy and high rural-to-urban migration. Asian societies need to adapt quickly to competition for global skills; retain skilled labour within the region; create institutional structures to support a growing number of elderly dependents at a time of falling numbers of children; and respond to the demand of fast and unstoppable urbanisation.

Sarah Harper is Professor of Gerontology at the University of Oxford and Director of the Oxford Institute of Ageing, a multidisciplinary research unit concerned with the implications of population ageing. She works on globalisation and global population ageing, addressing such questions as the implications of the widespread falls in fertility and growth in extreme longevity, with particular interests in Europe and the Asia Pacific. Harper is an author of the Royal Society report on population change, People and the Planet, combining population with environmental questions. As well as advising governments around the world, she sits on the Global Ageing Council, the Advisory Board of Population Europe, the World Demographic Association and the Scientific Board of Natural England.



Specialist speaker

100 plus: How the coming age of longevity will change everything, from careers and relationships to family and faith Sonia Arrison Author and Technology Analyst, Singularity University

Wednesday

Humanity is on the cusp of an exciting longevity revolution. The first person to live to 150 years has probably already been born.

In her book, 100 Plus, technology analyst and Silicon Valley insider Sonia Arrison lays out a thorough roadmap of the exciting new world confronting us, where fresh organs for transplants will be grown in laboratories, cloned stem cells will bring previously unstoppable death-sentence diseases to their knees, and living past 100 will be the rule, not the exception. She delivers a thorough and incisive summary of how longer and healthier lives will upend our personal, financial and spiritual habits, and how we must work to speed up progress so that longer lives are not only available to the next generation, but also to those who are adults today.

Arrison is a bestselling author and technology analyst who has studied the impact of new technologies on society for over a decade. Her award-winning book, 100 Plus: How the Coming Age of Longevity will Change Everything, from Careers and Relationships to Family and Faith, is a national bestseller and has been featured in top media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, The Economist, MSNBC, Bloomberg News, Fox News, CBS and the Today Show.

As a founder, academic adviser and trustee at Singularity University in Mountain View, California, Arrison is focused on exponentially growing technologies and their impact on society. She is also a columnist for TechNewsWorld and a Senior Fellow at the Fraser Institute in Vancouver, British Columbia. Formerly Director of the Technology Studies Department at the Pacific Research Institute in San Francisco, she is author of three books and numerous policy studies, and was the host of a radio show called Digital Dialogue on the Voice America network.

Often asked for advice on technology issues, Arrison has given testimony and served as an expert witness for various government committees, such as the Congressional Advisory Commission on Electronic Commerce and the California Commission on Internet Political Practices.



Specialist speaker

Asia’s middle class is still spending Aaron Fischer Head of Consumer and Gaming Research, CLSA

Wednesday

Asia’s middle class is still spending, driving demand for global luxury goods and Macau gaming. After the booming years of 2010-12, during which global luxury-goods sales enjoyed an 11% Cagr (versus a long-term average of 6%), Aaron Fischer expects 8% annual growth for the next five years. The key driver will be the Asian middle class, which has yet to purchase high-end goods in a significant way.

The prospects for Macau gaming is also bright. Growth should be moderate in 2013-14, as most of the casinos are already running at full capacity, but more than US$70bn of investment has been planned for the longer term to improve the city’s infrastructure. This should help bring in more mainland tourists and lengthen their stay in Macau. Meanwhile, new casinos in the Cotai area will start opening from 2015, providing another key earnings driver.

Aaron remains Overweight the global luxury-goods and Macau gaming sectors, which are protected by solid economic moats (strong brands for luxury-goods companies and gaming licences for casino operators), which are key to sustained earnings, cashflow and dividend generations.



Specialist speaker

The price of everything but the value of nothing: Will 2014 be the year when the low-cost sourcing bubble bursts? Rosey Hurst Founder and Director, Impactt

Thursday

The tragedies in Bangladesh garment factories have thrown the risks of sourcing from low-cost countries into sharp relief for retailers, brands and investors across all consumer sectors. Meanwhile, in China and other producing countries around Asia, governments are struggling to meet the ever-rising expectations of factory workers who have fuelled their development.

Will 2014 be the year when the true cost of low-cost sourcing become apparent and the sourcing bubble bursts? Rosey Hurst premieres Impactt’s latest data set, based on the experiences of 745,386 workers at 552 factories in Asia, providing unique insights into labour markets and working conditions in key sourcing bases, to understand: the true labour cost of sourcing from “low-cost countries”; challenges for producers around the region; implications for social harmony and economic growth in China, India, Bangladesh and Cambodia; and implications for sourcing companies. Is there such a thing as just too cheap? And if so, what will be the effects in traditional and emerging consumer markets?

Hurst is the founder and director of Impactt. She has more than 15 years’ experience in ethical trade and labour standards and has been working in China since 2001. Impactt works with organisations to improve working conditions in their supply chains in a way that brings clear business benefits to both ends of the chain. Hurst has led many innovations in ethical trade, founding Sedex and Local Resources Network, pioneering the use of participatory techniques in China, and developing methodologies for refining labour practices through improved quality, productivity and human-resources management.



Specialist speaker

The truth about Asia's connected consumer Dave McCaughan Director, Asia Pacific, McCann Truth Central

Thursday

Some 53% of Asia’s teens believe that their mobile phone is more important than their sense of smell in making sense of their world. More than 90% of moms with smartphones use them to support their shopping. And they use their connections to develop their own alternative economies. Asian people are more connected than ever. Personalities are framed and changed by them, what was once privacy is now a need to constantly broadcast. Brands are reacting by creating messaging that plays to the changing definitions of our mobile entertainment devices and a world where we are constantly “on”.

A look across Asian findings from half a dozen studies unveils the truth about youth, beauty, moms, privacy, wellness and connection, and the way our changing mobile and social media habits are altering the way brands reach Asians today and tomorrow.

Now based in Tokyo, Dave McCaughan was in previous lives a yoghurt maker, menswear salesman, for 10 years a children’s storyteller and then a butler for a reclusive Duke in Rome. He had also worked for Coca-Cola, MasterCard, Cathay Pacific, Tokyo Disneyland, Sunstar and Hitachi. He joined McCann in 1986 in his native Sydney, where he built the strategic planning function, and has subsequently been based in Bangkok, Hong Kong and since 2003 in Tokyo, leading the firm’s regional strategy development. He started McCann PULSE in 1995, the longest-running continuous investigation into people’s lives in Asia. It was renamed Truth Central in 2012. McCaughan now plays the twin roles of General Manager of McCann operations in Japan and Global Director of Truth Central, McCann World Group’s global insight and research unit.

Amazingly still seen as an Asian thought leader on youth marketing (despite the hair), McCaughan is also leading key initiatives into the ageing markets of Asia. He has an extensive history of working on the implications of media changes, how society is influenced and influences them.

McCaughan is a regular columnist for Advertising Age and Japan Close-Up. He is also a board member and contributor to ESOMAR’s Research World magazine.



Specialist speaker

China’s migrant workers: The price of bad policies Patricia Cheng Head of China Financial Research, CLSA

Thursday

Social issues can be a potent time bomb, especially when they involve 263m people. While migrant workers help build China’s success, they are denied opportunities to achieve greater upward mobility because of hukou (household registration) constraints. Coupled with the one-child limit, hopes of shifting the economy from investment-led to consumption-led are jeopardised. Businesses, especially low-end manufacturing, have to deal with higher operating costs and slower demand. Policies designed to smooth the planned economy have now become an obstacle to growth. Join Patricia Cheng for a virtual tour of the one country with two systems. Stops will be made at factories, construction sites, villages and city ghettos.

Specialist speaker

Beyond success - Strong body, resilient brain: The science, secrets & strategies of body stamina and brain health Linda Friedland Director, Dr Linda Friedland Health & Media Institute

Thursday

This CLSA U talk covers some of the recent exciting scientific and medical breakthroughs and how these affect your stamina and performance. Discover how best to boost your immunity, retard ageing, build resilience and promote brain health and neuroplasticity.

An internationally acclaimed health expert, medical doctor, television personality, highly regarded global speaker and a bestselling author of five books, Dr Linda Friedland has presented at more than 1,000 business events throughout more than 30 countries, reaching at least 250,000 attendees and clients globally throughout Asia, Europe, Africa, Australia, the UK and the USA. With a background of more than 20 years in clinical medicine and a decade of consulting and advisory work to boards and executives, Friedland, an authority on executive and corporate health, leadership, performance, strategy, women's health and parenting, is one of the highest rated international speakers for many organisations. Originally from South Africa, she is married with five children and lives in Australia.



Specialist speaker

The folly of footy finance: How Premier League clubs haemorrhage cash Stephen Clapham Founder, Behind the Balance Sheet

Thursday

The English Premier League is a £2.4bn global industry: Malaysia has almost as many Manchester United fans as England, while Indonesia has more than twice as many. Steve Clapham explains why only one club in the most popular football league in the world makes any money, and how this might change with the adoption of the Financial Fair Play rules this year.

Why does it cost so much more to earn a point at the top of the league than in the middle? Is it better to spend money buying players or paying them high wages? Why does the average Premier League goal cost over £3m? Why do clubs consistently lose money? How could two clubs lose over £500m buying and selling players in 10 years?

The presentation includes a sneak preview of the new Footy Finance mobile app, which brings football accounts to life in the form of an animation.

Clapham is the founder of The Balance Sheet Surgery LLP, trading as Behind the Balance Sheet. He has been an investment analyst for 25 years. He has worked on the “sell side” for a number of investment banks covering the transport, utilities and conglomerates sectors. In 2005, he moved to the “buy side”, where he was a partner at Toscafund Asset Management LLP then Head of Research at Altima Partners LLP, both then multibillion-dollar firms. Clapham was consistently rated in the top 10 in various sectors, when he was a sell-side analyst. He has received the prestigious Starmine Most Accurate Forecaster award, and was a runner-up in the highly regarded Institutional Investor survey.

Geopolitics and Asian markets Keynote and specialist speakers


Keynote speaker

Cool war: The future of global competition Noah Feldman Professor, Harvard Law School

Tuesday

China and the United States are economically interdependent yet geopolitically competitive. The emerging ‘new type of great power relationship’, to use Xi Jinping’s phrase, is therefore a paradox: a cool war in which the two sides need each other and benefit from positive-sum exchange, yet also struggle against each other in a zero-sum battle for regional supremacy. The historical precedents for a rising power and the status quo power avoiding conflict are not promising; and the economic irrationality of World War I did not prevent it. Can regional and global tensions continue to rise even as free trade agreements are negotiated? What will be the consequences for global competition, both economic and political? How can cyber-conflict be managed so that it does not create a war footing? Above all, can positive gains be used as leverage to override traditional great power incentives?

Noah Feldman specialises in constitutional studies, with particular emphasis on the relationship between law and religion, constitutional design and the history of legal theory. Bemis Professor of International Law at Harvard Law School, he is also a contributing writer for The New York Times Magazine and a columnist for Bloomberg View. Before joining the Harvard faculty, Feldman was Cecelia Goetz Professor of Law at New York University School of Law. He was named a Carnegie Scholar in 2005. In 2004, he was a visiting professor at Yale Law School and a fellow of the Whitney Humanities Center. In 2003, he served as a senior constitutional adviser to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq, and subsequently advised members of the Iraqi Governing Council on the drafting of the Transitional Administrative Law or interim constitution. From 1999 to 2002, he was a Junior Fellow of the Society of Fellows at Harvard University. Before that, he served as a law clerk to Justice David H Souter of the US Supreme Court (1998 to 1999) and to Chief Judge Harry T Edwards of the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit (1997 to 1998).

He received his AB summa cum laude in Near Eastern Languages and Civilizations from Harvard University in 1992. Selected as a Rhodes Scholar, he earned a DPhil in Islamic Thought from Oxford University in 1994. He received his JD from Yale Law School in 1997, serving as Book Reviews Editor of the Yale Law Journal. He is the author of six books: Constitutional Law, 18th edition (Foundation Press, 2013); Cool War: The Future of Global Competition (Random House, 2013); The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State (Princeton University Press, 2008); Divided by God: America's Church-State Problem and What We Should Do About It (Farrar, Straus & Giroux 2005); What We Owe Iraq: War and the Ethics of Nation building (Princeton University Press 2004); and After Jihad: America and the Struggle for Islamic Democracy (Farrar, Straus & Giroux 2003). His acclaimed fifth book, Scorpions: The Battles and Triumphs of FDR’s Great Justices, was published in 2010 by Twelve and has won several awards to date.

Geopolitics and Asian markets


Specialist speaker

Philippines: On solid ground Alfred Dy Head of Philippines Research, CLSA

Monday

Despite recent market volatility, Alfred Dy highlights that the Philippines’ macro backdrop remains rock solid. The country continues to be a net lender in global debt markets. It has maintained a current-account surplus for years now and should continue to do so in the coming years. The low-interest-environment is likely to persist given benign inflation. The domestic consumption theme is intact given rising per-capita income and a still growing population currently near 100m. The banking sector has lots of room to lever up given a low loan/deposit ratio of only 70%.

Specialist speaker

China’s foreign investment Daniel Rosen Partner, Rhodium Group, LLC

Monday

For all the talk of it shaking the world, China's globalisation has just begun. The country remains a major manufacturer and trading power - though half of its exports are still shipped by foreign invested firms. But in just a handful of years, it has gone from a laggard to a first-tier global direct investor, not just building mines in developing nations but increasingly making large acquisitions in the OECD. We are at the beginning of a multidecade takeoff in Chinese OFDI, but the motivations for and constraints on this deal flow are poorly understood even by senior policymakers and business leaders. Using a real-time database of deal patterns and five years of analysis, Rhodium Group's Daniel Rosen describes how structural reform in China is driving outflows, the new policy barriers Chinese money faces abroad and the contours of specific investment opportunities in the years ahead.

Daniel H Rosen is the founding partner of advisory firm Rhodium Group, and leads the firm’s China practice. He is also a visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington DC, and an adjunct associate professor at Columbia University, where he has taught a graduate seminar at SIPA on the Chinese economy since 2001. Over 2000-01 he was Senior Advisor for International Economic Policy at the White House National Economic Council and National Security Council. Rosen is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and serves on the board of the National Committee for US-China Relations. He has authored six books, and is working on his seventh, on China's global direct investment.



Specialist speakers

20 years: A radically different Asia Amar Gill Head of Asian Research, CLSA

Eric Fishwick Head of Economic Research, CLSA

Mark Beeson Professor of International Politics, Murdoch University

Sarah Harper Professor, University of Oxford

Monday

At the 20th CLSA Investors’ Forum, we discuss major political, social, economic, demographic and consumer changes over the past 20 years, and make projections for the next two decades. While long-term forecasts clearly have a degree of uncertainty, the demographic forces are pretty much in place, as are the trends of economic transformation and rising incomes. China will become the largest economy globally and India is set to overtake Europe in terms of GDP during this period. Asia’s economic evolution will have major implications for how longer-term investors should be positioned.

Mark Beeson is Professor of International Politics at Murdoch University. He is the author of many books and articles on the politics, economics and security of East Asia. His most recent works are Regionalism and Globalisation in East Asia: Politics, Security and Economic Development (2nd edition, Palgrave) and China's Regional Relations: Evolving Foreign Policy Dynamics with Fujian Li (Boulder: Lynne Rienner), both of which will appear in 2014.

Professor Sarah Harper is Professor of Gerontology at the University of Oxford and Director of the Oxford Institute of Ageing, a multidisciplinary research unit concerned with the implications of population ageing. She works on globalisation and global population ageing, addressing such questions as the implications of the widespread falls in fertility and growth in extreme longevity, with particular interests in Europe and the Asia Pacific. Harper is an author of the Royal Society report on population change, People and the Planet, combining population with environmental questions. As well as advising governments around the world, she sits on the Global Ageing Council, the Advisory Board of Population Europe, the World Demographic Association and the Scientific Board of Natural England.



Specialist speakers

The Chairman’s Trust session: A tale of two Chinas Jonathan Hursh Executive Director and Founder, INCLUDED

Scot Frank CEO, One Earth Designs

Monday

Some 33 million people in China still live in poverty. Among the many issues facing the country, rural-urban migration is one of the most pressing. Millions of migrants are flocking to the urban centres in search of a better life. When migrants move to the cities they are simply searching for the same things as the rest of us: a better life for their children, and an opportunity to work hard and study hard. Yet what they find is often far from what they imagined, with no access to healthcare or education and living on the edges of society. INCLUDED is a nonprofit organisation working within migrant populations in China and beyond.

Those who remain in rural settings have their own specific set of problems. Smoke from indoor stoves is the leading cause of death among children under five in the developing world. One Earth Designs (OED) is a social enterprise that aspires to make clean and abundant energy sources available to 2.5bn dirty-fuel users. It serves as a catalyst for social and environmental innovation. Working alongside rural communities, it unleashes the potential of modern design thinking coupled with valuable local knowledge. OED’s products enable a lifestyle that is not only convenient and accessible, but also in harmony with others and nature.

Jonathan Hursh, Executive Director and Founder of INCLUDED, founded the organisation in Beijing in 2006 and has overseen its growth into Shanghai, Kathmandu and Dhaka. INCLUDED is on path to build out a linked network of 10 strategic cities and 100 community centres across the world to advance the cause of migrant slums. Hursh deeply believes that smart cities are inclusive towards their migrants. He is the recipient of the World Economic Forum-connected Schwab Social Entrepreneur of the Year in 2013 and was recently recognised on the Global 100 Public Interest Design list for his leadership in good design for migrant slums.

Scot Frank is the cofounder and CEO of OED. He has lived and worked in China for seven years. With a degree in electrical engineering and computer science from MIT, he holds three patents and his background includes founding three startups, working at IBM’s India Research Laboratory and advising renewable-energy projects for the Clinton Global Initiative and Richard Branson’s Carbon War Room. Frank has been named a Forbes 30 under 30 entrepreneur, Unreasonable Fellow and Cordes Fellow.

OED and INCLUDED are two beneficiaries of the CLSA Chairman’s Trust, which provides financial and human capital to support communities and groups across Asia and in other markets in which CLSA operates. Over the past six years, the Trust has dispersed and pledged more than US$21m to over 110 charitable organisations. More than 100 CLSA employees are actively engaged in Chairman’s Trust projects across Asia, Australia, the USA and the UK.



Specialist speaker

Asian politics: The persistence of difference Mark Beeson Professor of International Politics, Murdoch University

Monday

Political systems in Asia remain diverse, different and distinctive. Although some East Asian states have become democratic, many have not. Some of the most important ones, such as China, are unlikely to become democratic in the foreseeable future. Despite the region's remarkable economic development, it is not inevitable that East Asia will replicate the Western experience. Indeed, new geopolitical and environmental problems may make democratic transition even harder in the future.

Mark Beeson is Professor of International Politics at Murdoch University. He is the author of many books and articles on the politics, economics and security of East Asia. His most recent works are Regionalism and Globalisation in East Asia: Politics, Security and Economic Development (2nd edition, Palgrave) and China's Regional Relations: Evolving Foreign Policy Dynamics with Fujian Li (Boulder: Lynne Rienner), both of which will appear in 2014.

Specialist speaker

Navigating the rough Mahesh Nandurkar Executive Director, India, CLSA

Monday

India’s growth outlook has taken a severe beating over the past three months thanks to continued rupee pressure and a deteriorating fiscal situation. With political uncertainties as an added risk, the economic growth outlook is at its worst in a decade. The silver lining is that such tough times usually trigger some forced reforms and policy improvements. More corporate earnings downgrades are imminent as the RBI is unlikely to reverse its current tightening policy in a hurry and government spending cuts are likely. Join this session as Mahesh Nandurkar steers investors to uncovered opportunities.



Specialist speaker

Taiwan: Recovery in growth, strong liquidity Peter Sutton Head of Taiwan Research, CAST

Tuesday

Taiwan has always been a leveraged play on global growth driven by exports and investment spending. This drives its economic and stockmarket performances. Just as emerging markets face tightening liquidity and slowing growth, liquidity in Taiwan remains strong and we forecast a return to robust GDP growth as developed economies pick up and global trade improves.

In the technology sector, commoditisation of mobile devices is driving prices down and volumes up. However, larger volumes mean better utilisation and profitability for component makers. Sentiment is very negative but the medium-term outlook is excellent.

The financial sector should do well as the economy rebounds in 2014. Bad debt is low, revenue growth is returning, costs are contained and valuations attractive.

Specialist speaker

Thailand: Finding the right shade of red Andy Chan Head of Thailand Research, CLSA

Tuesday

Thailand’s unwanted claim to fame is having triggered the 1998 Asian crisis, and amid the current speculations of QE tapering this continues to draw unwarranted comparison. Andy Chan outlines why Thailand’s challenges lie in an ageing population and politics as power groups desperately try to find a right shade of red to co-exist. Beyond politics, Thailand is well poised to take advantage of Asean connectivity and leverage off an already robust service economy (yes, tourism is bigger than exports now), while keeping its traditional manufacturing and trading prowess as the country’s land infrastructure is upgraded.



Specialist speaker

Malaysia: Storm warning Anand Pathmakanthan Head of Malaysia Research, CLSA

Tuesday

Malaysia’s historical defensiveness has been wilting in the face of a lethal combination of current-account shrinkage, Asean-leading government and consumer debt ratios, and continued political and economic policy uncertainty despite a relatively strong showing by the government in May’s general elections. This convergence of negatives is weighing on the ringgit and, juxtaposed against premium market valuation vis-à-vis faster-growing Asean peers, we see downside risks dominating in the run-up to Budget 2014 on 25 October. The government must deliver on austerity (spending/subsidy cuts, path to GST implementation) if investor confidence is to be restored.

Specialist speaker

Asia Pacific infrastructure Amar Gill Head of Asian Research, CLSA

Tuesday

Rapid urbanisation, rising incomes and foreign-direct-investment (FDI) inflows compel the region to invest in infrastructure. China must focus on water and clean energy; Japan on quakeproofing; and India, Indonesia and the Philippines on critical bottlenecks. Given fiscal and current-account constraints, the private sector will need to undertake a larger share of projects. Against macro uncertainties, market forces will dictate higher returns for project developers, which should translate to better equity returns.

Amar Gill estimates that over the three years to 2015, infrastructure investments in Asia Pacific will rise 24% to US$1.55tn. Asean countries and India are likely to see the fastest growth in investments. He finds that equity returns are correlated with ROIC, with returns boosted on companies with positive cashflow. In this session, Amar identifies infra-related companies in the region with good ROIC, positive FCF and positive BUY ratings by CLSA analysts across the region.



Specialist speaker

Indonesia: Navigating cross-currents Dee Senaratne Head of Indonesia Research, CLSA

Tuesday

Dee Senaratne discusses why Indonesia’s “late-cycle” risks are most vulnerable to tightening global liquidity. The recent blowout in the current-account deficit, sustained forex reserve contraction and the central bank’s questionable decision to keep rates on pause couldn’t come at a worse time as markets expect a potential shift in global monetary policy. The uncertainty in monetary policy has already caused havoc for the JCI and its Asean peers, as the dollar carry trade unwinds. The rupiah is a key confidence barometer for Indonesian assets and its continued depreciation does not bode well for risk appetite.

Meanwhile, corporate Indonesia is in a unique price environment: domestic prices are elevated (wages, rents, electricity and interest costs) while global prices are depressed (commodities). We see four main ways companies can contend with this: passthrough, productivity, premiumisation and penetration. Companies that are “price-setters” should have the least earnings risk.

Specialist speaker

Bashar al-Assad and the disintegration of Syria David Lesch Professor of Middle East History, Trinity University

Tuesday

The Syrian conflict is now well into its third year. The death and destruction that has visited the country is unprecedented in the modern history of the Middle East. It is a crisis that, if it continues to rage on indefinitely, could have disastrous regional and international repercussions. How did it get to this point? How did President Bashar al-Assad, once thought to be a modernising reformer, the so-called “hope” of the Syrian people when he took power in 2000, become a leader whose name has been lumped together with Saddam Hussein and Adolph Hitler?

David W Lesch is Professor of Middle East History at Trinity University in San Antonio, Texas. He received his PhD in Middle East history from Harvard University. He was recently named the Ewing Halsell Distinguished Professor of History at Trinity University. He is the author or editor of 12 books, including several that have focused on Syria and Bashar al-Assad. His most recent book is Syria: The Fall of the House of Assad and his edited work, ‘The Arab Spring: Change and Resistance in the Middle East’. He met regularly with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad between 2004 and 2009.



Specialist speaker

Switching gears Heather Hsu China A-Share Strategist, Fortune CLSA

Tuesday

Despite mounting economic, social and political challenges, China remains in good hands. Having taken office only six months ago, the new leaders are already introducing reforms. The government is taking some steps to democratise the economic system by opening up a few sectors. This will encourage competition and drive better efficiency as private investment becomes a substitute to government-led spending. While hiccups and resistance are well expected, we believe this is the best time to buy good-quality stocks as long-term investments.

Specialist speaker

China-Africa: Investment trade flows Joshua Eisenman Senior Fellow in China Studies, American Foreign Policy Council

Wednesday

Over the past decade, China-Africa trade has grown exponentially, and as of 2012 it was generally balanced. Once disaggregated by country, however, trade surpluses emerge for resource exporters and deficits for nonresource exporters. Chinese firms have successfully expanded their African natural-resource purchases, increased exports of value-added manufactured and consumer products, and rapidly enlarged their presence in Africa. Yet, the patterns of trade produced by these successes have also resulted in the spread of African anti-Chinese resistance narratives at both the grassroot and, increasingly, elite levels. To counteract their negative effects Chinese firms would be well served to focus more on “green” technologies, develop corporate social responsibility programmes and support African demands for more trade fairness.

Joshua Eisenman is Fellow in Asia Studies at the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC) and is pursuing a PhD in political science at UCLA. He is coeditor of China and the Developing World: Beijing's Strategy for the 21st Century (ME Sharpe 2007) and author of the book's chapter on China-Africa relations. He is collaborating with Ambassador David H Shinn on a book on China-Africa relations, an effort that is already under advance contract with the University of Pennsylvania Press.

Eisenman received his MA in international relations with specialisations in China studies and international economics at Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He speaks and reads Mandarin Chinese.



Specialist speakers

The return to growth Dominic Scriven CEO, Dragon Capital

Bill Stoops CIO, Dragon Capital

Wednesday

The Vietnamese government has been eminently successful in stabilising the economy with a tough programme of fiscal and monetary discipline that has been underway since 2011. Inflation is well down in the single digits, the currency is anchored, the trade deficit is modest, forex reserves have tripled. The flipside of stabilisation has been a growth slump, led by a virtual cessation of new lending. But amid this, deeper macro restructuring is underway, via SOE and public spending reform, and bank-sector rationalisation. Dragon Capital’s CEO Dominic Scriven discusses Vietnam’s move back to sustainable high-growth dynamics in 2013-14, and how this puts the equity market in a sweet spot for investment.

With more than 25 years’ experience in investment, working for UK, US and Chinese firms in Europe and Asia, Scriven cofounded Dragon Capital in 1994. The fund has assets of more than US$1bn and invests across the economy. It was a core developmental shareholder in both VFM, the country’s first domestic fund manager, and HSC, the securities arm of the Ho Chi Minh City provincial government. Scriven graduated in 1985 from Exeter University in law and sociology.

Dragon Capital CIO Bill Stoops began working in emerging markets as a journalist in Hong Kong in 1980, after graduating from Brown University with a Bachelor of Arts (History) degree in 1978. He then set up his own political-risk consultancy, before joining Schroder Securities as a conglomerates analyst in 1983. Two years later, he moved to Seoul to open Citicorp’s first brokerage representative office. In 1989, Stoops was recruited by Baring Securities in London to run its North Asian equity sales team. Four years later, Barings sent him to New York to establish a “new emerging markets” sales desk. He went on to specialise in emerging European markets, in which capacity he worked for Deutsche Bank and HSBC from 1998 to 2006. That year, Stoops moved to Vietnam as a Director of Dragon Capital, with responsibility for research and capital markets. He was appointed to his current position three years later.



Specialist speaker

Asian transport: Freight takes flight Paul Wan Head of Asian Transport, CLSA

Thursday

Sluggish global trade growth has translated to a two-year downturn in air freight, which is exacerbated by a decade-long modal shift from air to sea. The good news is that the shift is showing signs of bottoming and air has gained share in US imports and EU exports in recent years. Paul Wan estimates that air-freight demand should grow by 0.5%/6.3% in 2013/14, with airlines seeing a stronger rebound in earnings than container shippers given better supply-demand dynamics.

Specialist speakers

Singapore: Hypertension Robert Bruce Head of Singapore Research, CLSA

Oliver Campbell Research Analyst, Singapore, CLSA

Thursday

Singapore’s growth over the past eight years has been fuelled by a rapid expansion of the foreign working population, as the government sought to expand the talent pool and open the property market in 2005. The non-resident population doubled from 2004 to 1.5m in 2012. At an annual growth rate of 9%, compared to 1.4% for local residents, expatriates have grown from 18% to 28% of Singapore’s population and contribute to 37% of its workforce. This has created substantial wealth for Singaporeans along the way, but many are feeling squeezed, and the government has signalled a period of transition in the economy as it seeks quality over quantity and drives for productivity and less reliance on foreign labour. While the long-term aspirations and strategy have merit, in the interim they could cause significant disruption. Robert Bruce and Oliver Campbell guide investors through the beneficiaries and highlight those at risk of margin compression.

Environment, energy and commodities Keynote and specialist speakers


Specialist speakers

Commodities: Riding the cycle Andrew DriscollHead of Resources Research, CLSA

Ian Roper Commodity Strategist, CLSA

David Radclyffe Head of Australia Resources Research, CLSA

Monday

China’s structural shift to less-commodity-intensive growth is well underway, with negative consequences for prices. Supply has started to respond to weaker markets for some commodities, but it is still accelerating for others. Despite these factors, there are many opportunities within the space, notably in terms of differentiation between the various commodity trends and trading the equities. Please join this session and meet CLSA’s new Head of Australia Resources Research, David Radclyffe.

The iron-ore and coal markets have diverged this year, and Andrew Driscoll and Ian Roper discuss how their near- and long-term outlooks differ. Base metals are late-cycle relative to the steel raw materials, and they explain why the copper bull market has years to run. Some miners won’t survive the downcycle, but quality operators are set to enjoy some tailwinds from cost-reduction plans, asset rationalisation and a renewed focus on capital allocation. Find out which miners are best positioned, and where our resources research team sees the best absolute and relative investment opportunities.

Specialist speaker

Asian oil & gas: Enviable growth Simon Powell Head of Asia Oil & Gas Research, CLSA

Monday

Despite the recent slowdown in its oil demand, China is still set to represent half of the world’s incremental demand to 2015. Its domestic oil and gas production is the envy of global players elsewhere and the dash for gas continues with the long-awaited gas-price reform. Upstream growth at PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC alongside international M&A and imports deals are the solution to incremental demand. Simon Powell outlines the key themes in the space, including the emerging domestic oil-services sector, which is growing rapidly due to the increasing number of onshore wells that are being drilled.

Environment, energy and commodities


Specialist speaker

The materials revolution coming your way Gerbrand Ceder Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Tuesday

Novel materials form the cornerstone of much technological innovation. In some cases, they enable completely new industries (eg, lithium batteries), whereas in other fields they have limited progress (eg, fuel-cell vehicles). Professor Gerbrand Ceder provides some examples of technology fields, such as ultra-safe batteries, where new materials innovation is likely to transform the industry, and discusses how novel initiatives such as the Materials Genome will significantly accelerate materials discovery.

Ceder is a Professor of Materials Science and Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He received an engineering degree from the University of Leuven, Belgium, and a PhD in materials science from the University of California at Berkeley in 1991. His research interests lie in the design of novel materials for energy generation and storage, including battery materials, thermoelectrics, photovoltaics and photocatalysts. He has worked for 18 years in the Li-battery field, optimising several new electrodes materials and has regularly served as scientific adviser to companies and investors in this area. He has published more than 300 scientific papers, and holds several US patents. He has served on MIT’s Energy Council as well as on several DOE committees, including the workgroup preparing the Basic Needs for Electrical Energy Storage report. Ceder has received the MRS Gold Medal and the Battery Research Award from the Electrochemical Society for his work on understanding battery materials, the Career Award from the National Science Foundation, and the Robert Lansing Hardy Award from The Metals, Minerals and Materials Society. He is a cofounder of Computational Modeling Consultants, Pellion Technologies and The Materials Project. His work on high-throughput computing was the inspiration of the Presidential Materials Genome Initiative.



Specialist speaker

North America switches sides: What does its change from an LNG importer to an LNG exporter imply for gas trade and pricing? James Jensen President, Jensen Associates

Tuesday

The international gas industry was originally developed as a series of isolated regional markets often with their own pricing systems. That regional isolation was challenged both by the LNG surpluses of 2009/10 and the development of North American shale gas, the low costs of which threaten the oil-linked contract-pricing structure in Europe and Asia. James Jensen discusses the potential for North American LNG exports and their impact on trade and pricing.

Jensen is the President of Jensen Associates, a consulting firm in Weston, Massachusetts, specialising in energy economics. He is recognised for his expertise in international natural-gas supply, demand, pricing, regulation and trade. He has testified on natural-gas issues before US Senate and House Congressional Committees as well as various regulatory agencies. He received the 2001 Award for Outstanding Contributions to the Profession of Energy Economics and to its Literature from the International Association for Energy Economics.



Specialist speakers

Melting pot Geoff Boyd Head of Auto & Steel Research, CLSA

Abhijeet Naik Executive Director, India, CLSA

Christopher Richter Senior Research Analyst, Japan, CLSA

Scott Laprise Head of China Auto and Steel Research, CLSA

Tuesday

Geoff Boyd in Korea, Abhijeet Naik in India, Scott Laprise in China and Christopher Richter in Japan reveal what they are seeing in their markets and indeed across the world for individual companies they cover. They also discuss the May 2013 AsiaUSA™ Research, Melting pot, on the mid-term structural forces at play in China. The report highlighted the expectation for a 7% base-case demand Cagr in China on a five-year view, but 8-10% is possible based on Korea’s historical auto takeup rate. On the supply side, an expected c.12% Cagr leaves the team with a view that general auto returns in China would slide as a rule of thumb for the industry post the 2009-10 monetary-stimuli-driven demand boom that caught everyone by surprise.

Specialist speaker

Asian power and utilities: Slower and cleaner Rajesh Panjwani Head of Asia Power Research, CLSA

Wednesday

Power demand and generation growth across Asia has been slowing for two years, dampening the sector’s capacity additions. Meanwhile, the focus on energy efficiency and pollution control has been increasing, leading to a higher share of gas, wind and solar power in the energy mix - albeit off a low base. We expect thermal capacity addition in Asia to remain weak in the medium term as China and India, which account for c.90% of capacity additions, grapple with their own challenges. China’s thermal utilisation is only 55% and India’s generators and distributors face coal shortages and stretched balance sheets. Rajesh Panjwani sees no respite for power-equipment makers but coal-sensitive IPPs are well positioned to be benefit from weak coal prices. The share of gas in the energy mix will continue to rise, offering interesting investment opportunities in gas transmission and distribution companies. Wind and solar power will be increasingly adopted, creating opportunities for grid investments. Rajesh expects the slowdown in nuclear-power additions to extend as most countries have enhanced safety standards and face increased public scrutiny post the Fukushima disaster.



Specialist speaker

Mining the last frontier of waste with breakthrough technologies and business strategies Mike Biddle Founder and President, MBA Polymers

Wednesday

Dr Mike Biddle, winner of the prestigious Gothenburg Award in 2012 and The Economist’s Innovation Award in 2010, among many others, reveals how he pioneered the development of breakthrough technology for mining plastics from highly mixed waste streams.

Biddle started MBA Polymers more than 20 years ago - literally from his California garage. Today, the company is a world leader in recycling plastics from some of the largest and most complex waste-generating sectors: automotive, computer/electronics/appliances and municipal solid-waste streams. MBA has designed, built and now operates state-of-the-art, world-scale plants in China, Austria and the UK. It is capable of processing more than 300m pounds of mixed plastics-rich waste per year, with the intention of building additional capacity to meet the growing demand for its products. Some of the largest manufacturers in the world use MBA’s plastics to replace virgin plastics in their new products. In this session, Biddle also examines why plastics is the last major material category to be recovered from end-of-life products on a large scale and what is required to propel this last frontier of “above ground mining” forward on a global scale.

Before starting MBA, Biddle worked for large multinational companies such as GE, Cummins and Dow. Besides the 2012 Gothenburg Award (previous winners included Al Gore and Kofi Annan), The Economist’s Innovation Award 2010, he was also named a World Economic Forum Tech Pioneer and has received the Thomas Alva Edison Award for Innovation and the Ascent Award for Entrepreneurship. MBA was named a Global Cleantech 100 company in 2009 and 2010.

Biddle received a BS in chemical engineering from the University of Louisville and a PhD in polymer science and engineering from Case Western Reserve University. He was a Sloan Fellow at Stanford University's Business School (Executive MBA).



Specialist speakers

Asian steel: Four seasons ending with a cold winter Geoff Boyd Head of Auto & Steel Research, CLSA

Scott Laprise Head of China Auto and Steel Research, CLSA

Scott Hudson Investment Analyst - Steel, Packaging & Chemicals, Australia, CLSA

Thursday

There was some excitement surrounding the steel sector in Asia and globally going into September, due to a mild price increase that has occurred since July. We saw some underpinning for the summer surge, off the very low pricing and sentiment levels in late spring. However it’s difficult to see this uptrend lasting much longer. The structural forces of overcapacity in the steel world, particularly in China and Asia, are too strong, and will blow cold winds over the rally by October. In this session, Geoff Boyd, Scott Laprise (China) and Scott Hudson (Australia) discuss their negative bias to the sector and the outlook for individual companies they cover.

Specialist speaker

The power of pollution Charles Yonts Head of Sustainable Research, CLSA

Thursday

China’s pollution has become a mainstay of newspaper headlines since levels in Beijing literally went off the charts in January. It is now clear that officials cannot simply sweep the issue under the rug, even if they were so inclined. As Beijing tightens regulations and raises targets, citizens and NGOs are taking local politicians to task for ignoring environmental-impact assessments or tolerating violations. Some companies and industries are proving more adept at adjusting to the new environment; others will struggle as long-ignored risks come to the surface. Charles Yonts analyses the risks and focuses on China’s attempts to clean up the biggest contributor to its capital’s poisonous air: coal-fired power.


Notes

Important notices

05/08/2013

© 2013 CLSA Limited, CLSA Americas, LLC (“CLSA Americas”) and/or Credit Agricole Securities Taiwan Co., Ltd. (“CA Taiwan”)

This publication/communication is subject to and incorporates the terms and conditions of use set out on the www.clsa.com website. Neither the publication/communication nor any portion hereof may be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of CLSA group of companies (excluding CLSA Americas, LLC) (“CLSA”), CLSA Americas (a broker-dealer registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and an affiliate of CLSA) and/or CA Taiwan. CLSA, CLSA Americas and CA Taiwan has/have produced this publication/communication for private circulation to professional, institutional and/or wholesale clients only. The information, opinions and estimates herein are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where doing so would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject CLSA, CLSA Americas and/or CA Taiwan to any additional registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and we make no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Any opinions or estimates herein reflect the judgment of CLSA, CLSA Americas and/or CA Taiwan at the date of this publication/communication and are subject to change at any time without notice. Where any part of the information, opinions or estimates contained herein reflects the views and opinions of a sales person or a non-analyst, such views and opinions may not correspond to the published view of CLSA, CLSA Americas and/or CA Taiwan. This is not a solicitation or any offer to buy or sell. This publication/communication is for information purposes only and does not constitute any recommendation, representation, warranty or guarantee of performance. Any price target given in the report may be projected from one or more valuation models and hence any price target may be subject to the inherent risk of the selected model as well as other external risk factors. This is not intended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual recipients. Before acting on any information in this publication/communication, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. CLSA, CLSA Americas and/or CA Taiwan do/does not accept any responsibility and cannot be held liable for any person’s use of or reliance on the information and opinions contained herein. To the extent permitted by applicable securities laws and regulations, CLSA, CLSA Americas and/or CA Taiwan accept(s) no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this publication/communication or its contents. Where the publication does not contain ratings, the material should not be construed as research but is offered as factual commentary. It is not intended to, nor should it be used to form an investment opinion about the non-rated companies. Subject to any applicable laws and regulations at any given time, CLSA, CLSA Americas, CA Taiwan, their respective affiliates or companies or individuals connected with CLSA/CLSA Americas/CA Taiwan may have used the information contained herein before publication and may have positions in, may from time to time purchase or sell or have a material interest in any of the securities mentioned or related securities, or may currently or in future have or have had a business or financial relationship with, or may provide or have provided investment banking, capital markets and/or other services to, the entities referred to herein, their advisors and/or any other connected parties. As a result, investors should be aware that CLSA, CLSA Americas, CA Taiwan and/or their respective affiliates or companies or such individuals may have one or more conflicts of interest. Regulations or market practice of some jurisdictions/markets prescribe certain disclosures to be made for certain actual, potential or perceived conflicts of interests relating to research reports. Details of the disclosable interest can be found in certain reports as required by the relevant rules and regulation and the full details are available at http://www.clsa.com/member/research_disclosures/. Disclosures therein include the position of CLSA, CLSA Americas and CA Taiwan only and do not reflect those of CITIC Securities International Company Limited, Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank and/or their respective affiliates. If

investors have any difficulty accessing this website, please contact [email protected] on +852 2600 8111. If you require disclosure information on previous dates, please contact [email protected]. This publication/communication is distributed for and on behalf of CLSA Limited (for research compiled by non-US and non-Taiwan analyst(s)), CLSA Americas (for research compiled by US analyst(s)) and/or CA Taiwan (for research compiled by Taiwan analyst(s)) in Australia by CLSA Australia Pty Ltd; in Hong Kong by CLSA Limited; in India by CLSA India Ltd (Address: 8/F, Dalamal House, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400021. Tel No: +91-22-66505050. SEBI Registration No: BSE Capital Market Segment: INB010826432; BSE F&O Segment: INF010826432; NSE Capital Market Segment: INB230826436; NSE F&O Segment: INF230826436); in Indonesia by PT CLSA Indonesia; in Japan by CLSA Securities Japan Co., Ltd; in Korea by CLSA Securities Korea Ltd; in Malaysia by CLSA Securities Malaysia Sdn Bhd; in the Philippines by CLSA Philippines Inc (a member of Philippine Stock Exchange and Securities Investors Protection Fund); in Thailand by CLSA Securities (Thailand) Limited; and in Taiwan by CA Taiwan. United States of America: Where any section of the research is compiled by US analyst(s), it is distributed by CLSA Americas. Where any section is compiled by non-US analyst(s), it is distributed into the United States by CLSA solely to persons who qualify as "Major US Institutional Investors" as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934 and who deal with CLSA Americas. However, the delivery of this research report to any person in the United States shall not be deemed a recommendation to effect any transactions in the securities discussed herein or an endorsement of any opinion expressed herein. Any recipient of this research in the United States wishing to effect a transaction in any security mentioned herein should do so by contacting CLSA Americas. United Kingdom: Notwithstanding anything to the contrary herein, the following applies where the publication/communication is distributed in and/or into the United Kingdom. This publication/communication is only for distribution and/or is only directed at persons ("permitted recipients") who are (i) persons falling within Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001 (the "FPO") having professional experience in matters relating to investments or high-net-worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc. falling within Article 49 of the FPO, and (ii) where an unregulated collective investment scheme (an "unregulated CIS") is the subject of the publication/communication, also persons of a kind to whom the unregulated CIS may lawfully be promoted by a person authorised under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 ("FSMA") by virtue of Section 238(5) of the FSMA. The investments or services to which this publication/communication relates are available only to permitted recipients and persons of any other description should not rely upon it. This publication/communication may have been produced in circumstances such that it is not appropriate to categorise it as impartial in accordance with the FSA Rules. Singapore: This publication/communication is distributed for and on behalf of CLSA Limited (for research compiled by non-US and non-Taiwan analyst(s)), CLSA Americas (for research compiled by US analyst(s) and/or CA Taiwan (for research compiled by Taiwan analyst(s)) in Singapore through CLSA Singapore Pte Ltd solely to persons who qualify as Institutional, Accredited and Expert Investors only, as defined in s.4A(1) of the Securities and Futures Act. Pursuant to Paragraphs 33, 34, 35 and 36 of the Financial Advisers (Amendment) Regulations 2005 with regards to an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or Overseas Investor, sections 25, 27 and 36 of the Financial Adviser Act shall not apply to CLSA Singapore Pte Ltd. Please contact CLSA Singapore Pte Ltd in connection with queries on the report. MICA (P) 138-12-2012 The analysts/contributors to this publication/communication may be employed by a Credit Agricole, CLSA or CITIC company which is different from the entity that distributes the publication/communication in the respective jurisdictions.

MSCI-sourced information is the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc (MSCI). Without prior written permission of MSCI, this information and any other MSCI intellectual property may not be reproduced, redisseminated or used to create any financial products, including any indices. This information is provided on an "as is" basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. MSCI, Morgan Stanley Capital International and the MSCI indexes are service marks of MSCI and its affiliates. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and Standard & Poor's. GICS is a service mark of MSCI and S&P and has been licensed for use by CLSA.

EVA® is a registered trademark of Stern, Stewart & Co. "CL" in charts and tables stands for CLSA/CLSA Americas/CA Taiwan estimates unless otherwise noted in the source.

Prepared for - W: [email protected]

Research & sales offices www.clsa.com

Australia CLSA Australia Pty Ltd CLSA House Level 15 20 Hunter Street Sydney NSW 2000 Tel: +61 2 8571 4200 Fax: +61 2 9221 1188

India CLSA India Ltd 8/F, Dalamal House Nariman Point Mumbai 400021 Tel: +91 22 6650 5050 Fax: +91 22 2284 0271

Philippines CLSA Philippines, Inc 19/F, Tower 2 The Enterprise Center 6766 Ayala corner Paseo de Roxas Makati City Tel: +63 2 860 4000 Fax: +63 2 860 4051

USA - Boston CLSA Americas, LLC 99 Summer Street, Suite 220 Boston, MA 02110 Tel: +1 617 295 0100 Fax: +1 617 295 0140

China - Beijing CLSA Limited - Beijing Rep Office Unit 10-12, Level 25 China World Trade Center Tower 2 1 Jian Guo Men Wai Ave Beijing 100004 Tel: +86 10 5965 2188 Fax: +86 10 6505 2209

Indonesia PT CLSA Indonesia WISMA GKBI Suite 901 Jl Jendral Sudirman No.28 Jakarta 10210 Tel: +62 21 2554 8888 Fax: +62 21 574 6920

Singapore CLSA Singapore Pte Ltd 80 Raffles Place, No.18-01 UOB Plaza 1 Singapore 048624 Tel: +65 6416 7888 Fax: +65 6533 8922

USA - Chicago CLSA Americas, LLC One South Dearborn Street Suite 2100 Chicago IL 60603 Tel: +1 312 220 7346 Fax: +1 312 212 4401

China - Shanghai CLSA Limited - Shanghai Rep Office Room 910, 9/F 100 Century Avenue Pudong New Area Shanghai 200120 Tel: +86 21 2020 5888 Fax: +86 21 2020 5777

Japan CLSA Securities Japan Co., Ltd. 16/F, Shiodome Sumitomo Building 1-9-2, Higashi-Shimbashi Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0021 Tel: +81 3 4578 8000 Fax: +81 3 4578 8080

Taiwan Credit Agricole Securities (Taiwan) Company Limited* 27/F, 95, Section 2 Dun Hua South Road Taipei 10682 Tel: +886 2 2326 8188 Fax: +886 2 2326 8166 * CAST is an exclusive Taiwan research provider to CLSA

USA - New York CLSA Americas, LLC 1301 Avenue of The Americas 15th Floor, New York 10019 Tel: +1 212 408 5888 Fax: +1 212 261 2502

China - Shenzhen CLSA Limited - Shenzhen Rep Office Room 3111, Shun Hing Square Di Wang Commercial Centre 5002 Shennan Road East Shenzhen 518008 Tel: +86 755 8246 1755 Fax: +86 755 8246 1754

Korea CLSA Securities Korea Ltd 30/F, One IFC 10 Gukjegeumyung-ro Yeongdeungpo-gu Seoul, 150-712 Tel: +82 2 397 8400 Fax: +82 2 771 8583

Thailand CLSA Securities (Thailand) Ltd 16/F, M. Thai Tower All Seasons Place 87 Wireless Road, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330 Tel: +66 2 257 4600 Fax: +66 2 253 0532

USA - San Francisco CLSA Americas, LLC 50 California Street, Suite 850 San Francisco, CA 94111 Tel: +1 415 544 6100 Fax: +1 415 434 6140

Hong Kong CLSA Limited 18/F, One Pacific Place 88 Queensway Hong Kong Tel: +852 2600 8888 Fax: +852 2868 0189

Malaysia CLSA Securities Malaysia Sdn Bhd Suite 20-01, Level 20 Menara Dion 27 Jalan Sultan Ismail 50250 Kuala Lumpur Tel: +60 3 2056 7888 Fax: +60 3 2056 7988

United Kingdom CLSA (UK) 12/F, Moor House 120 London Wall London EC2Y 5ET Tel: +44 20 7614 7000 Fax: +44 20 7614 7070

CLSA Sales Trading Team Australia +61 2 8571 4201 China (Shanghai) +86 21 2020 5810 Hong Kong +852 2600 7003 India +91 22 6622 5000 Indonesia +62 21 573 9460 Japan +81 3 4580 5169 Korea +82 2 397 8512

Malaysia +60 3 2056 7852 Philippines +63 2 860 4030 Singapore +65 6416 7878 Taiwan* +886 2 2326 8124 Thailand +66 2 257 4611 UK +44 207 614 7260 US +1 212 408 5800

Research subscriptions To change your report distribution requirements, please contact your CLSA sales representative or email us at [email protected]. You can also fine-tune your Research Alert email preferences at https://www.clsa.com/member/tools/email_alert/.

©2013 CLSA Limited (for research compiled by non-Taiwan analyst(s)) and/or Credit Agricole Securities Taiwan Co., Ltd (for research compiled by Taiwan analyst(s)). Key to CLSA/CLSA Americas/CA Taiwan investment rankings: BUY: Total return expected to exceed market return AND provide 20% or greater absolute return; O-PF: Total return expected to be greater than market return but less than 20% absolute return; U-PF: Total return expected to be less than market return but expected to provide a positive absolute return; SELL: Total return expected to be less than market return AND to provide a negative absolute return. For relative performance, we benchmark the 12-month total return (including dividends) for the stock against the 12-month forecast return (including dividends) for the local market where the stock is traded. We define stocks we expect to provide returns of 100% or higher including dividends within three years as “Double Baggers”. 05/08/2013

CLSA is certified ISO14001:2004

CLEANGREEN& TM

At CLSA we supportsustainable development.

We print on paper sourced fromenvironmentally conservativefactories that only use fibres

from plantation forests.Please recycle.

Prepared for - W: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

https://www.clsa.com/member/tools/email_alert/

spoilt for choice - clsa · 2013. 5. 8. · spoilt for choice keynote and specialist speakers find...

Documents