Spill Modeling Applications for Spill Modeling Applications for ExxonMobilExxonMobil

Wolfgang J. KonkelWolfgang J. KonkelExxonMobil Biomedical SciencesExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences

June 26, 2007June 26, 2007

Modeling ToolsModeling Tools•• Oil Spill ModelsOil Spill Models

–– 2 Dimensional, deterministic and stochastic 2 Dimensional, deterministic and stochastic (50+ licenses)(50+ licenses)

–– 3 Dimensional, deterministic includes air model 3 Dimensional, deterministic includes air model and NOAA Spill Tools (2 licenses)and NOAA Spill Tools (2 licenses)

•• Chemical Spill Models, 3 Dimensional Chemical Spill Models, 3 Dimensional deterministic, includes air model (6 licenses)deterministic, includes air model (6 licenses)

•• Hydrodynamic modeling, provides current data for Hydrodynamic modeling, provides current data for oil and chemical spills (2 licenses)oil and chemical spills (2 licenses)

Utilization of Modeling ApplicationsUtilization of Modeling Applications

•• Oil SpillOil Spill–– Exercise Support Exercise Support –– Spill Response AnalysisSpill Response Analysis–– Dispersant AdvocacyDispersant Advocacy–– Contingency PlansContingency Plans–– Accidental SpillsAccidental Spills

•• Chemical SpillChemical Spill–– Operations SupportOperations Support–– Exercise SupportExercise Support–– Accidental SpillsAccidental Spills

Oil Spread from Valdez Spill Approximately 0700

~ 15 Km2

6 miles2 ~ 15 km2

Model Spreading Yields Similar Results

Historic 1989 winds and Spring hydrodynamic model utilized

Spreading Curve vs TimeSpreading Curve vs Time

Successful spill response requires the slick area to be intercepted (mechanical) for skimming, burning or treatment (dispersants).

Storm

Offshore

Slick Area vs Time for 10K BBL Spill

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70

Time (Hours)

Are

a (K

m2)

Storm

Offshore

Protected

3/99-372-V1

RELATIVE AREA COVERAGERELATIVE AREA COVERAGE

Km2/HourMechanical

Small Skimmers 0.008 – 0.012Medium Skimmers 0.0016 – 0.06Large Skimmers 0.08 – 0.3

Burning 0.02 - 0.12Dispersants

Vessels 0.1 – 0.6Helicopters 0.048 – 0.28Small Planes 0.24 – 0.56Large Aircraft 2 - 4

Some Numbers Courtesy of Al Allen

Km2/HourMechanical

Small Skimmers 0.008 – 0.012Medium Skimmers 0.0016 – 0.06Large Skimmers 0.08 – 0.3

Burning 0.02 - 0.12Dispersants

Vessels 0.1 – 0.6Helicopters 0.048 – 0.28Small Planes 0.24 – 0.56Large Aircraft 2 - 4

Some Numbers Courtesy of Al Allen

Response Operations are Encounter Rate Limited

Improvements in Modeling Improvements in Modeling CapabilitiesCapabilities

•• Digital map utilization and coverageDigital map utilization and coverage•• Satellite and aerial imagesSatellite and aerial images•• Access to Access to griddedgridded wind data, server basedwind data, server based•• Access to remote hydrodynamics, server Access to remote hydrodynamics, server

basedbased•• Internationally recognized digital habitat Internationally recognized digital habitat

datadata

Air IssuesAir Issues

•• Spill response in some locations within 2 Spill response in some locations within 2 hourshours

•• ExxonMobil OEL for HC exposure is 100 ExxonMobil OEL for HC exposure is 100 ppmppm

•• Air models indicate that large spills will Air models indicate that large spills will produce that atmosphere for over 24 produce that atmosphere for over 24 hours hours

Large Spills Produce Larger Hazardous AtmosphereLarge Spills Produce Larger Hazardous Atmosphere

Maximum Total Hydrocarbon Concentration in Air at 24 Hours

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000

Oil Spill Volume (BBL)

Tota

l Hyd

roca

rbon

s (P

PM)

Comparison of Drifter vs. Model outputs

Drifter buoy produced following track

Drifter track vs. model using only wind data for same time period

Drifter track vs. model using combined currents and winds for same time period

IssuesIssues

•• Local data collection and transmission is Local data collection and transmission is poorpoor

•• Server based data do not produce outputs Server based data do not produce outputs that match fieldthat match field

•• Requests for inappropriate utilization of Requests for inappropriate utilization of toolstools

•• Validation of air outputsValidation of air outputs