spencer dale group chief economist · primary energy consumption by end-use sector annual demand...

Spencer DaleGroup chief economist

2019 BP Energy Outlook© BP p.l.c. 2019

0

5

10

15

20

25

2017 ET ME LG RT

Renew.*

Hydro

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Oil

Primary energy consumption by fuel CO2 emissions

Billion toe

Energy Outlook scenarios

2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Evolving transition (ET)

More energy (ME)

Less globalization (LG)

Rapid transition (RT)

Gt of CO2

*Renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass and biofuels


Billion toe

Three windows on the energy transition

0

5

10

15

20Transport

Industry

Non-combusted

Buildings

0

5

10

15

20Other

Africa

Other Asia

India

China

OECD

0

5

10

15

20Renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Oil

Primary energy demand

End-use sector Region Fuel


0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

1995-2017 2017-2040

Primary energy consumption by end-use sector

Annual demand growth and sector contributions

% per annumBillion toe

Energy demand by sector

0

5

10

15

20

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Transport

Industry

Non-combusted

Buildings


Primary energy consumption by region

Primary energy growth and regional contributions

% per annumBillion toe

Regional energy demand

0

5

10

15

20

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Other

Other Asia

Africa

India

China

OECD

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

1990-2000

2000-2010

2010-2020

2020-2030

2030-2040


Increase in primary energy demand, 2017-2040

Billion toe

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Primary energy demand2017

Population GDP/capita Energy/GDP Primary energy demand2040

20402017

Income per head

World population

Energy efficiency

Increase in primary energy demand


Primary energy consumption by fuel Shares of primary energy

Billion toe

Global energy by fuel type

0

5

10

15

20

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Oil

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040


Billion toe

Three windows on the energy transition

0

5

10

15

20Transport

Industry

Non-combusted

Buildings

0

5

10

15

20Other

Africa

Other Asia

India

China

OECD

0

5

10

15

20Renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Oil

Primary energy demand

End-use sector Region Fuel


Five key questions and uncertainties

How much ‘more energy’ does the world need?

How important are plastics for the future of oil demand?

What might happen if the trade disputes escalate?

How quickly could renewables grow?

A low-carbon energy system: what more needs to be done?


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0 100 200 300 400 500

Human development and energy consumption

80% of population

Sample of countries

Line of best fit

Gigajoules/head

HDI

UN Human Development Index and energy consumption, 2017


-70%

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

-70%

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038

Primary energy demand and carbon emissions

Dual challenge: more energy, less carbon

Primary energyCO2

Evolving transition scenario

less carbon

more energy

Primary energy

CO2

Cumulative growth rate








13


Liquids demand Liquids demand growth

Mb/d, average annual growth

Demand for oil and other liquid fuels

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Power BuildingsIndustry Non-combustedNon-road TrucksCars

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2005-2010

2010-2015

2015-2020

2020-2025

2025-2030

2030-2035

2035-2040

Power

Buildings

Industry

Non-combusted

Transport

Total

Transport

Mb/d


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2017

Mb/d

Liquid feedstocks for single-use plastics

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Impact of single use plastics ban

2040

Impact of tighter plastics regulations in ET scenario

Mb/d

Demand for non-combusted liquid fuels

Demand for liquid fuels and plastics


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

More energy

Evolving transition

Single-use plastics ban

Greater reform

Less globalization

Rapid transition

Supply with no investments in new fields

Demand and supply of oil

Trillions of $s

Mb/d


Less globalization scenario

Reduced openness and trade leads to slight reduction in trend global GDP growth

Concerns about energy security adds a small risk premium (10%) to imported energy


Alternative scenario: Less globalization

-900

-600

-300

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

ET

Lessglobalization

Net exports (oil & gas)

Mtoe

-900

-600

-300

0

300

600

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

US

China

Difference relative to ET scenario in 2040:

Global GDP and energy

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%GDP Energy

Renewables Coal

Gas Oil

Total


Renewables share of power generation

Renewable energy

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1995 2010 2025 2040

Geothermaland biomass

Solar

Wind

Fuel shares in power

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Gas

Coal

Renewables

Hydro & Nuclear


Speed of penetration of new fuels in global energy system

Share of world energy

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0 10 20 30 40 50

Oil (1877) Gas (1899) Nuclear (1974) Hydro (1922) Renewables (2006)

Years from reaching 1% share

Speed of energy transition


CO2 emissions in ET scenario

0

10

20

30

40

1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040

Evolving transition

CO2 emissions by sector

0

10

20

30

40

1995 2017 2040

Transport

Industry

Buildings

Power

Gt of CO2

CO2 emissions

Gt of CO2


Rapid transition scenario: policy measures

Wide range of policy measures: broadly equivalent in terms of their implied costs and effort

No silver bullet: a comprehensive set of policy measures is needed

Carbon prices are key, especially in the power and industrial sectors

Role for targeted regulatory measures, especially until carbon prices reach material levels


CO2 emissions

CO2 emissions CO2 in 2040: ET vs RT scenario

0

10

20

30

40

ET 2

04

0

Pow

er

Ind

ustr

y &

Bu

ildin

gs

Tra

nsp

ort

RT

20

40

Gt of CO2

Gt of CO2

0

10

20

30

40

1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040

Evolving transition

Rapid transtion


Primary energy consumption by fuel

Billion toe

Global energy demand and fuel mix

0

4

8

12

16

20

2017 Rapid transition Evolving transition

Renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Oil

2040


Hard-to-abate carbon emissions

CO2 emissions in RT scenario in 2040

2Gt of CO Decarbonise power sector• Renewables• Gas (and coal) plus CCUS• Energy storage and demand-side-response

Other low-carbon energy sources and carriers • Hydrogen• Bioenergy

Efficiency• Circular economy• Process efficiency

Storage and removal of carbon • CCUS• Negative emission technologies, eg land carbon,

bioenergy with CCS (BECCS)

0

4

8

12

16

20

Buildings

Industry

Transport

Power

Spencer DaleGroup chief economist

spencer dale group chief economist · primary energy consumption by end-use sector annual demand...

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