spatial representations for the dbsa development report...

CSIR 2010 Slide 1

Spatial Representations for the DBSADevelopment Report 2030

Overview of key findings

Prepared by: CSIR, Built Environment, Planning Support Systems and DBSA

Presented by: Tabo Foulo (DBSA)

16 February 2011

DBSA

CSIR 2010 Slide 2© CSIR 2010 Slide 2

Presentation Outline

• Introduction and purpose of spatial representations

• ONE: Indicative spatial representations of where economic and population growth will most likely take place in South Africa

• TWO: Comparative spatial representations of projected economic and population* growth patterns at local municipality level (1996-2025)(* Projections completed, mapping being finalised)

• THREE: Implications of key spatial patterns of future development for natural & energy sources* and ecosystem functions (* Water Balance & Population Growth Projections completed, mapping to be done)

• Summary & conclusion

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Introduction and Purpose (1)

• DBSA Development report provides opportunity to consider:• Extent of existing development challenges;

• Implications of current and desired development trajectories and priorities within a range of critical areas, such as education, energy, safety and security and the green economy for the unfolding future;

• Ways in which these challenges manifest, and can be impacted on, in space.

• Recognising and considering contextual and geographical realities and interrelationships are critical in any initiative aimed at effectively and efficiently addressing development challenges in integrated and context specific ways.

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• Spatial policy considerations in the South African context are crucial, due to a number of aspects, such as:• The fact that spatial patterns are still largely a reflection of

Apartheid legacies and extreme inequalities;

• The recognition that economy is still quite dependant on natural resources;

• Key resource conditions, vulnerabilities and spatial policy implications are also crucial, especially considering global grand challenges such as climate change, water availability and water quality having significant place specific impact;

• In order for South Africa to reach its most crucial development

goals and outcomes, including growing the economy, job

creation, rural development and sustainability, it is imperative to

consider the respective spatially and place specific challenges

and opportunities and key factors associated with regional

development and growth and the spatial implications thereof.

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• Over the last decade numerous studies and reports highlighted significant spatial and settlement patterns, such as:• Extremely concentrated development patterns

• Relatively large part of the country that is not effectively habitable

• Key role that the network of settlements and their surrounding hinterlands play in housing the South African nation and generating the economy and the important role of accessibility;

• Large numbers of people still bound to poverty stricken former Bantustan areas, where in spite of evidence of outmigration population is still growing;

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• Over the last decade numerous studies and reports highlighted significant spatial and settlement patterns, such as (cont):• Strong town ward movement and sustained population growth in

metropolitan areas

• Largely due to national growth, urbanisation and migration from traditionally highly populated rural districts.

• Increasing service demands in metro areas (in spite of huge strides being made in providing people with access to basic services), a younger urban population, an increase in numbers of black people within metropolitan areas, as well as higher numbers of the economically active, and people in poverty within metropolitan and urban nodes; and

• Role of strong centres and nodes (urban, as well as resource base) within continued concentrations of economic growth.

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One: Indicative spatial representations of where economic and

population growth will most likely take place in SA (1)

South African society reflects a highly dualistic system (with sharp poor-rich, so-called rural-urban, inter racial, and spatial disparities).

Spatial patterns influenced by factors such as:• Increasing degree of spatial complexity - Manifested, inter alia, by a

variety of administrative regions, functional economic/ human activity regions, various types of fuzzy regions, social networks, internet-based collaboration networks, ecosystems and other spatial system demarcations;

• Historic patterns of concentration;

• Existing socio-economic and spatial conditions and interrelatedness; and

• Recent socio-economic growth trajectories and trends such as migration, as well as accessibility patterns influence spatial patterns.

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Strong spatial patterns and interdependencies emerge between:

• Attractors of growth and basins of decline; and

• Network of cities and towns and surrounding hinterlands, as well as between different types of areas.

Against this background, indicative spatial representations were developed providing an indication of where economic and population growth will most likely take place in SA:

1. Areas that will most probably form the backbone of the South African economy in the future; and

2. Areas that will most likely be marked by high population densities in the future.

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1. Areas that will most probably form the backbone of the South African economy in the future, identified by considering:

• Spatially explicit patterns and trends, which would most likely influence the probability and spatial location of future economic development (given current trajectories to continue).

• Comparatively high levels of economic activity and economic growth patterns over the last decade

• Used as key indicators of agglomeration patterns, regional

friction, and existing institutional densities in regions. GVA used

as best currently available indicator for economic activity,

recognising the limitations and the advantages of in future using

more integrated inclusive wealth indicators (Map i);

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1. Areas that will most probably form the backbone of the South African economy in the future, identified by considering (cont):

• High levels of accessibility to high order government and economic services and towns (See Map ii);

• Population migration patterns indicating areas of highest growth (See Map iii); and

• The ability of the economy to adapt, critically influenced by skills levels (for which GDP/capita is used as a proxy indicator at a finer scale) and levels of economic diversity (using sector specific GVA as key proxy) (See Map iv).

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1. Areas that will most probably form the backbone of the South African economy in the future (FIGURE 1):

Indicated on a scale

from red (highest) to

blue (lowest) the areas

that would most likely

act as attractors of

economic development

in the future, given

current trends to

continue. These areas

are typically centres of

economic

agglomeration,

attractors of people

(spanning income, skills

and age groups), highly

accessible and with an

ability to diversify and

adapt their economies

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2. Areas that will most probably be marked by high population densities in the future, were identified by considering:

• Spatially explicit patterns and trends, which would most likely influence the probability and spatial location of high densities of future settlements and areas acting as population attractors (under the condition that current trajectories continue),

• Existing population concentration with high levels of natural population growth that is still likely to continue (Map a);

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2. Areas that will most probably be marked by high population densities in the future, were identified by considering:

• Migration patterns with resultant areas of net population growth and decline.

• Unfortunately only anecdotal and case study specific information on

external immigrants into South African exists and thus external migration

with most likely impacts on big urban centres, border towns and transit

areas and towns have not been included (Map b).

• Accessibility to high order government as well as economic services and towns (Map c); and

• People’s ability to access a means of living

• Including their proximity to job opportunities, other economically active

people (with associated livelihood opportunities that holds i.t.o.

employment, informal business opportunities etc.)(Map d).

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2. Areas that will most probably be marked by high population densities in the future, were identified by considering (FIGURE 2):

Indicated on a scale from red

(highest) to blue (lowest) the

areas that would most likely

act as attractors of high

population densities and

settlement growth in the future

(given current trends to

continue).

Typically centres of existing

population concentrations

which will be marked by high

natural growth rates, areas

attracting internal (and most

probably also external)

migration, areas that offer the

opportunity to access means

to make a living (including

formal and informal

employment opportunities,

and access to economically

active people and grant

incomes).

CSIR 2010 Slide 15

Two: Comparative spatial representations of projected economic

and population growth patterns (LM level, 1996-2025) (1)

Spatial representations have been done of projected growth patterns for 10 year intervals, for the time frames 1996, 2005, 2015 and 2025 :

1. Economic growth patternsGDP has been proven as one of the indicators that provides the most likely indication of future growth, past and current GDP and compound GDP growth at local municipality level have been projected to provide a relative indication of the spatial distribution of future economic activity.

2. Population growth patternsPast and current population growth at local municipality level has been projected* to provide a relative indication of the spatial distribution of future population densities. (*Projections completed,

mapping being finalised)

3. GDP/Capita patternsGiven the above projections of economic and population growth and spatial distribution, the spatial distribution of projected* GDP/Capita has also been calculated and represented at local municipal level. (*Projections completed, mapping to be finalised)

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1. Economic growth patterns: Spatial representations of past and current economic growth patterns at LM level (1995-2007) :

Current GDP per local

municipality is indicated

by bubbles, sized by the

economic activity to

provide a comparative

indication across the

country. Compound

economic growth rates for

the respective local

municipalities have been

calculated for the time

period 1995-2007 and are

indicated through the

colour scale of the bubbles

ranging from high growth

rates in red and low

growth rates in blue.

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1. Economic growth patterns: Spatial representations of projected economic growth patterns for 10 year intervals at LM level (1996, 2005, 2015, 2025):

1996 2005

2015 2025

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2. Population growth patterns: Spatial representations of past and current population growth patterns at LM level (1995-2007) :

Current population

numbers per LM is

indicated by bubbles,

sized by actual population

numbers to provide a

comparative indication

across the country.

Compound population

growth rates for the

respective LMs are

calculated for 1995-2007

and indicated through the

colour scale of the bubbles

ranging from high growth

rates (red) to low growth

rates (blue).

CSIR 2010 Slide 19

Three: Implications of key spatial patterns of future development

for natural and energy sources and ecosystem functions (1)

• Key spatial patterns and strong spatial trends evident over the last ten years in South Africa, which would most probably influence spatial development patterns in future have been identified.

• Using multi-criteria modelling at local municipal level and spatial relational analysis at a more regional scale, a comparative and indicative spatial interpretation of areas that would most likely act as attractors of future population and economic growth, and place significant pressure on, and be highly dependant on, water, energy and other natural resources, have been identified.

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• In order to explore these implications in a more tangible and spatially explicit way, and given spatial data availability, the projected population growth (given current trajectories) are being related to spatial representations of:

1. Probable water availability in 2025, derived from current mean annual run-off and existing water transfer systems and potential population growth;

2. Areas that could play a significant role in providing access to natural resources in the form of mining potential, agricultural potential and acting as water resource systems (where run-off needs to be managed as effectively as possible in order to sustain water resources).

(* Water Balance & Population Growth Projections completed, mapping to be done)

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2. Areas that could play a significant role in providing access to natural resources in the form of mining potential, agricultural potential and acting as water resource systems.

Areas identified as most

probably under pressure

for high density develop-ment, also areas with:

• Highest mining

potential – in the central

and northern parts of the country;

• Highest agriculture

land capability – in the

central parts of the

country and northern

parts of Free State, as

well as

• Highest mean annual water runoff

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Summary & Conclusion

• Key spatial patterns that would most probably significantly influence

future development, including economic and population growth and

pressures in relation to accessibility patterns, migration trends and

resource availability (given current development trajectories) are clearly

visible.

• The significance of the west, southern and eastern coastal areas, the

extended Gauteng city-region area, and the network of towns and

settlements and natural resource endowments in Mpumalanga, North-

West and Limpopo provinces are clearly evident.

• Continued growth (due to large existing population numbers) within the

metropolitan areas and the former Bantustan areas, coupled with the

additional pressures of in-migration in the metropolitan areas, clearly

highlight the critical need for addressing job creation, access to

livelihoods, access to key services such as health care and education in

these areas.

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Discussion

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ADDITIONAL SLIDES – Methodology

• The methodology followed:

• Identify key spatial patterns and strong spatial trends evident over the last ten years in South Africa – that would most probably influence spatial development patterns in future

• Use multi-criteria modelling at local municipal level and spatialrelational analysis at a more regional scale to provide a comparative and indicative spatial interpretation of areas that would most likely:

• act as attractors of future population and economic growth, and

• place significant pressure on, and be highly dependant on, water and energy resources

• Utilise projected economic and population growth to provide an indicative spatial representation of future spatial development patterns (at local municipality level)

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ADDITIONAL SLIDES – Analysis considered to determine

the economic growth path dependency

• Maps i-iv

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Map i (a): Where has the economy been growing & declining? How does

this relate to existing economic activity? What does this mean for the

future?

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Map i (b)Indication of current economic activity per local

municipality in relation with the network of settlements

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Map ii: Patterns of accessibility and

connectivity on a regional basis

• This would include levels of mobility, access to service nodes (towns, centres), as well as connectivity to communication infrastructure.

• Utilised analysis prepared on Geo Spatial Analysis Platform (2006), based on access on road network to towns with medium and higher order service nodes (Derived from urban functional index)

• Established and tested analysis

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Map iii: Comparative levels of population growth and decline and

inter-municipal movement trends

Key spatial patterns that would most probably significantly

influence future development (4)• This would include population gains and losses, due to natural growth as

well as migration.

• Stats SA data – Population gains & losses 2001-2007, spatially disaggregated by making use of the Geospatial Analysis Platform

• Trend analysis used in the National Spatial Trends Overview (2009)


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Map iv: Ability of the economy to adapt – GDP/capita & Economic

sector diversity

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ADDITIONAL SLIDES – Analysis considered to determine

the population growth areas

• Maps a-d

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Map a(1): Where have population been growing & declining? How does this relate

to existing population sizes? What does this mean for the future?

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Map a(2): Indication of current population size per local municipality in

relation with the network of settlements distribution

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Map b: Comparative levels of population growth and decline and

inter-municipal movement trends


influence future development (4)• This would include population gains and losses, due to natural growth as

well as migration.

• Stats SA data – Population gains & losses 2001-2007, spatially disaggregated by making use of the Geospatial Analysis Platform

• Trend analysis used in the National Spatial Trends Overview (2009)


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Map c: Accessibility to economic and government services

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Map d: Relative geographical accessibility to employment demand

and supply for the economically active part of the population.


influence future development (4)

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Water balance

• Resource availability and potential areas of risk• Preliminary analysis of the spatial implications of water balance and

availability.

• Water resource availability for high & low growth scenarios as described in Data

Component (DBSA Report)

• Spatial analysis done for National Spatial Trends Overview, 2009

• Indication of current water availability, as illustrated by water run-off per catchment area and future water transfers between catchment areas

CSIR 2010 Slide 38

Contact details for further engagement and/or

comments and inputs: Elsona van Huyssteen [email protected]

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