Spatial Decision Support Systems for Spatial Decision Support Systems for Integrated Water Resources ManagementIntegrated Water Resources Management

Possible Ways AheadPossible Ways Ahead

N. N. HarshadeepHarshadeepSr. Environmental Specialist, South Asia RegionSr. Environmental Specialist, South Asia Region

The World BankThe World Bank( ( harsh@worldbank.orgharsh@worldbank.org ))

Presentation at a Workshop on Presentation at a Workshop on

Spatial Analysis for the Sustainable Spatial Analysis for the Sustainable Management of the Indus Basin in PakistanManagement of the Indus Basin in Pakistan

May 26, 2003May 26, 2003

Outline of PresentationOutline of Presentation

•• Context: Integrated Water Resources Context: Integrated Water Resources ManagementManagement

•• Decision Support Systems (DSS)Decision Support Systems (DSS)–– Knowledge BaseKnowledge Base–– ModelsModels

•• Illustrative Illustrative DSSsDSSs•• Possible Paths AheadPossible Paths Ahead

Ocean

River Basin Boundary

Irrigation

Navigation

Why Integrated Water Resources Management?

…this is why we need IWRM in a basin context!!!

IndustryUrban WSS

Precipitation

Agriculture Department

Irrigation Department

Rural Water Supply DepartmentUrban Water Supply Department

Power Department

Livestock Department

Industry Department

Environment Department

Fisheries Department

Transport DepartmentTourism Department

Groundwater Department

Surface Water Department

Reservoir

Recreation

Hydropower

Forest Department

Ocean Development/CZM Department

Fishing

Community Use

Wetlands / Environment

Rainfed Agr

Livestock

Forest

Rural WSS

Irrigation

Groundwater

Infiltration / Recharge

Base Flow / Pumping

Groundwater Inflow

Groundwater Outflow

Runoff

Evaporation / Transpiration

Return Flow

Sub-Watershed

WatershedSub-Basin

River Basin

Micro-Watershed

Watersheds and BasinsWatersheds and Basins

Branch Headworks

Bran

ch

Distributary

Drain

CommandArea ofOutlet

BranchDrainage Basin

RiverDistributary

Drainage Basin

Wetlands & Waterlogged Areas

Sodic LandPatches

Minor

Outlets

Importance of a Spatial PerspectiveImportance of a Spatial PerspectiveIntegrated Water Resources Mgmt.Integrated Water Resources Mgmt.

! River Basin Planning & Management is inherently Spatial

! Need to examine! relationship between administrative

and hydrologic boundaries! upstream-downstream linkages! environmental issues: pollution and

natural resources management (water quality, sodicity/salinity, waterlogging, public health)

! surface and groundwater management! multi-sectoral demands! spatial distribution of costs and

benefits! Need for spatial characterization of

issues, constraints and options

Soils

Canals

Wetlands

•••

•••

Rivers

Pakistan Water Sector StrategyPakistan Water Sector Strategy

Insufficient dataInsufficient data--basebaseand and inadequate inadequate information availabilityinformation availabilityhas been identified as a has been identified as a primary constraint in primary constraint in sustainable WRM and sustainable WRM and Irrigation management.Irrigation management.

Pakistan Water Resources StrategyPakistan Water Resources Strategy

√√Hydrological and Hydrological and ClimatalogicalClimatalogical databasesdatabases meet the meet the country�s requirements for planning and design of water country�s requirements for planning and design of water resources developmentsresources developments

√√The country�s capability and resources in The country�s capability and resources in allied areas of allied areas of R&D (social, environmental, etc.)R&D (social, environmental, etc.) meet its information meet its information requirements for water resources development and requirements for water resources development and managementmanagement

√√SocioSocio--economic databaseseconomic databases meet the country�s meet the country�s requirements for planning and design of water resources requirements for planning and design of water resources developmentsdevelopments

√√Environmental databasesEnvironmental databases meet the country�s meet the country�s requirements for planning and design of water resources requirements for planning and design of water resources developmentsdevelopments

√√The country�s capability and resources in The country�s capability and resources in hydrological hydrological and and climatologicalclimatological servicesservices meets its requirements for meets its requirements for operational management of wateroperational management of water

√√The country�s capability and resources in The country�s capability and resources in waterwater--related related R&DR&D meet its information requirements for water meet its information requirements for water resources development and managementresources development and management

Not at Not at allall

A LittleA LittlePartiallyPartiallyFullyFully

Transport

Environmental(pollution,ecology)

Urban Water Supply

National Goals(drinking water,

food security)

Risk(floods,droughts)

Agriculture Energy

Social/Public Health

Water “Sector” LinkagesWater “Sector” Linkages

Water Resource

Environmental & Social Indicators Environmental & Social Indicators in Water Resources Managementin Water Resources Management

• Water Resources (Surface & GW)• Spatial & Sectoral Competition for water• Water Quality (Surface & GW)• Waterlogging/Salinity• Overextraction/Recharge• Land Use/Land Cover• Watershed Degradation/Erosion/Siltation• Natural Habitats / Wetland Management• Coastal Zone Management (incl. salinity intrusion)• Weed/Exotic Species Management• Fisheries/Livestock Management• Pesticide & Fertilizer Use• Climate Change• Environmental Safeguards• Capacity

Sample Environmental Indicators Sample Social Indicators

• Stakeholder Views & Consultation• Poverty & Livelihoods• Distribution of Benefits• Equity• Gender Issues• Access to Relevant Information• Farmer Organization Performance• Participation in Decision Making• Empowerment• Decentralization• Conflict Resolution• Cultural Property• Public Health• Vulnerable Groups• Social Safeguards• Capacity

Mangroves/CZMSalinity Intrusion

Flows at Rim StationsGlacial Recession

Waterlogging

Water Availability at Tail End of Systems

Flows below Kotri“Flow to Sea”

Water Quality

Salinity/Aquifer Management

Barani Area Management(forest, rangeland, water sources)

Inter-ProvincialWater Sharing

Water Quality in Lean Season

Flood Impacts

Small Storage DamUtilization

WetlandManagement

The Main ProblemsThe Main Problems•• Knowledge BaseKnowledge Base

–– ComprehensivenessComprehensiveness–– Information AccessInformation Access

•• Analytical CapacityAnalytical Capacity–– Concerted efforts to Analyze Concerted efforts to Analyze

Problems in a Holistic MannerProblems in a Holistic Manner–– Modern Information Management Modern Information Management

and Analysisand Analysis

•• InstitutionalInstitutional-- “Shared Vision” Planning & “Shared Vision” Planning &

ManagementManagement-- Access to Relevant Expertise and Access to Relevant Expertise and

LessonsLessons-- “Project” Mode of working“Project” Mode of working

The Primary OpportunitiesThe Primary Opportunities

•• Recognition of the ProblemsRecognition of the Problems•• Past and Ongoing Work on Past and Ongoing Work on

Knowledge Base and Analytical Knowledge Base and Analytical CapacityCapacity

•• Reform AgendaReform Agenda•• Learning from Worldwide Learning from Worldwide

ExperiencesExperiences•• Rapid IT advancesRapid IT advances

Decision Support SystemsDecision Support SystemsInformation System

GIS, Spreadsheets, Databases, Documents, Web, Other Software

ModelsOptimization/Simulation

Planning/Management/Operation

IssuesHydrologic Cycle, Quality,

Allocation, Economic, Social, Institutional, Legal

Engineering, Environmental, ...

Data

Information

Knowledge

Decision-Making

Decision Support SystemsDecision Support Systems

Information Systems• Geographic Information Systems• Interactive Spreadsheets• Databases• Internet• Other Documents

Models• Optimization/Simulation• Deterministic/Stochastic• Operation/Management/Planning

… Public Policy, Hydrology, Engineering, Economics, Environment, Ecology, Law, Politics, ...

Inputs

, Upd

ates

& Feed

back

Dissemination, Use,

Decision-making

Interaction

Disciplines… Government, Academic, NGOs, International Institutions, Research, Consultants, General Public, Other Stakeholders...

Actors

Decision Making

Dat

a, In

form

atio

n, K

now

ledg

e, O

bjec

tives

, C

onst

rain

ts, S

cena

rios,

Tool

s, M

etho

dolo

gies

! What are the Benefits of Cooperation?! What are the Costs of Inaction?! What are the Inter-sectoral and Inter-regional Tradeoffs?! What are the Major Constraints to Development in each

Sector/Region?! What are the Investment Priorities?! What are the Environment-Development Linkages?! What are the Long-term Planning Implications

(vs. Planning for the Short-term)?

Sample Questions/Issues to be AddressedSample Questions/Issues to be Addressedby DSSby DSS

Information SystemsInformation Systems

GIS DatabasesUser Interaction

• Maps• Classification• Queries• Scenarios • Simple Models• DSS Interfacing

• Land Use• Agriculture• Urban• Demographic• Environment• Flows• Groundwater• Energy• Transport• Projects - current/proposed• Economic

Outputs

Other Tools

• Internet• Spreadsheets• Databases• Presentations• Documents• Programs/Models

• Maps/Overlays• Tables• Statistics• Links• Spatial Analyses• Model Outputs

Opt

imiz

atio

n

Land Use• Urbanization• Cropping Patterns

Water Supply• Hydrologic Cycle • Conjunctive Use

Water Demands• Irrigation• Industrial• Domestic• Livestock• Hydropower

Management Options• Hardware• Software

Water Allocation• Inter-Sectoral• Inter-Regional

Water Supply• Surface Water• Groundwater

Production• Hydropower• Agricultural Products

Management Designs• Hardware• Software

Economic• Benefit Distribution• Shadow Prices

Sample Modeling Systems

DomesticIndustryLivestock

Groundwater

AgricultureIrrigated

AgricultureBarani

Return Flows

In-Stream Uses

Losses

Dem NodeInflow Outflow

Precipitation

Sample Modeling FrameworkThe Story at a Demand Node

Modern Spatial ToolkitModern Spatial Toolkit

Pakistan: Flows in Rivers (Indexed)

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1937

1939

1941

1943

1945

19

47 194

9 195

1 195

3 19

55 19

57 19

59 196

1196

319

6519

671969197

119

7319

7519

7719

79198

1198

319

8519

87198

9199

119

93

Mea

n An

nual

Flo

w (I

ndex

with

100

at 1

937)

IndusKabulJhelumChenabRaviSut lejTotal

• GIS

• GPS / Modern Survey Tools

• Remote Sensing

• Modern Hardware

• Modern Software

• Modern Platforms (www)

• Modern Applications/DSS

• and most important� Skilled Staff with multi-sectoral perspectives

�along with all the old-fashioned insights, knowledge, expertise

.150 0 150 300 45075Kilometers

Wheat Yields 2001-02

Source: AVHRR Sateilite Imagery Analysis

Wheat Yields (kg/ha)Admin. Boundaries

Value1 - 500

500.0000001 - 1,000

1,000.000001 - 1,500

1,500.000001 - 2,000

2,000.000001 - 2,500

2,500.000001 - 3,000

3,000.000001 - 3,500

3,500.000001 - 4,000

4,000.000001 - 4,500

4,500.000001 - 5,000

5,000.000001 - 5,500

5,500.000001 - 6,000

6,000.000001 - 6,500

Demonstration ofDemonstration of

Sample Spatial Information Sample Spatial Information Systems and Interactive ModelsSystems and Interactive Models

The Roadmap…The Roadmap…

•• Inventory and gap Inventory and gap analysisanalysis

•• Public access to Public access to relevant informationrelevant information

•• Identify key decisions Identify key decisions to be madeto be made

•• Decision Support Decision Support System development System development (information systems (information systems and modeling)and modeling)

•• Appropriate Appropriate Institutional Capacity Institutional Capacity Development (Focal Development (Focal Point, InterPoint, Inter--institutional links, institutional links, training/awareness)training/awareness)

•• Link to decision makingLink to decision making

•• AccessAccess (restrictions, lack of sharing (restrictions, lack of sharing tendency and protocols, cost)tendency and protocols, cost)

•• AdequacyAdequacy of dataof data–– Quality (incl. data standards)Quality (incl. data standards)–– Coverage (comprehensiveness, updating, Coverage (comprehensiveness, updating,

stocktaking of what’s out there)stocktaking of what’s out there)•• Inadequate DSS use and Inadequate DSS use and link to decisionlink to decision--

makingmaking

•• Low Low awarenessawareness on spatial information on spatial information systems and analysis (knowing what’s out systems and analysis (knowing what’s out there, who’s who, senior management, there, who’s who, senior management, adequate training)adequate training)

•• Low Low technical and resource capacitytechnical and resource capacityfor modern IT penetration (skilled for modern IT penetration (skilled manpower, hardware, software, modern manpower, hardware, software, modern DSS) in many organizationsDSS) in many organizations

•• Lack of Lack of focal pointfocal point; lack of inter; lack of inter--agency agency coordination and cooperationcoordination and cooperation

Problems (identified by workshop participants)

Potential Path Ahead

Key PrinciplesKey Principles

•• Make best use of available information Make best use of available information –– not not wait for the “best” data and tools to become wait for the “best” data and tools to become availableavailable

•• Develop a “Shared Vision” for sustainable Develop a “Shared Vision” for sustainable development, management and operation in the development, management and operation in the Indus Basin from a multiIndus Basin from a multi--sectoralsectoral perspectiveperspective

•• Make information availableMake information available•• Explore modern IT optionsExplore modern IT options•• Focus on Training and AwarenessFocus on Training and Awareness•• Require an appropriate level of analysis for Require an appropriate level of analysis for

decisiondecision--makingmaking

…finally……finally…Remember the client!!!