Spatial Data and Analysis in Support of Improved Policy and Planning – An ACIAR example using Africa

Christopher Auricht chris@auricht.com

ACFIDCanberra 21 August 2012

Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research ACIAR

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Current status of spatial data and applications

Applications now matured to point where such systems: Can and are being used in various capacities. For

example - Humanitarian scenarios (especially as they relate to

malnutrition, morbidity and mortality) Economic scenarios with and without interventions at

differing stages i.e. decision support systems e.g. pre-emptive, resilience building / risk management interventions v’s emergency response triggered by high mortality or threat i.e. once a crisis has eventuated

Have ability to look at multiple scales( local, national, regional) and longitudinally (forwards and backwards)

See for example – FAO FIVIMS http://www.fivims.org/ and World Bank sites http://data.worldbank.org/indicator?display=map

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Percentage urban and urban agglomerations by size class

1960198020112025

Source: UN Pop Division World Urbanisation Prospects, 2011 Revision http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Maps/maps_overview.htm

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Urban agglomerations by size class and potential risk of drought

197020112025

Source: UN Pop Division World Urbanisation Prospects, 2011 Revision http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Maps/maps_overview.htm

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Talk outline – Sub-Saharan Africa Example

Context and Background Need for a strategic approach Issues and status of spatial data Methodology used in developing an updated

farming systems dataset and analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa

Food Security and Nutrition AIFSC

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Stitch in time saves nine Spatial data and systems can help inform

where the stitch is needed and the type of stitch required

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Facts According to CGIAR analysis

One billion of the worlds poor within Africa and Asia (those living on less than $1 per day) are fed primarily by: hundreds of millions of small-holder farmers (often

with less than 2 ha of land, several crops, and a cow or two), or

Herders (most with fewer than five large animals)

Solution ? Develop sustainable farming systems that

improve efficiency gains to produce increased food production

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One Billion People Suffer Chronic Hunger and Poverty

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Scale of Rural Hunger Nearly one billion people experience debilitation,

health-threatening hunger each year 4 out of 5 of these people are rural farmers

Trends in maize shortage in ZambiaPercentage of farm households with maize shortage

The Hunger Period

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Hunger Hotspots and Farming Systems

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Background ‘Business-as-usual’ investments in agriculture

unlikely to deliver sustainable solutions in many countries

Numerous obstacles to progress e.g. inefficiencies in program delivery, political uncertainty etc. These are not the only problem!

Existing systems (often under stress) have been / are expected to continue to accommodate large increases in population, increasing urbanisation, rising demand for animal products, plus competition for land and water

Forecasts suggest that current practices will not stay abreast with population growth, environmental change and increasing demand for animal products.

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Population 2000 and 2040 Sub-Saharan Africa (Millions)

Population

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040

Total Pop 659 746 843 952 1,071 1,333 1,623

Rural Pop 447 491 537 586 635 724 795

Urban 212 255 306 366 436 609 828

Agric Pop 403 437 472 508 544

Females in Ag

78 87 97 109 121

Source: UN Pop Division World Urbanisation Prospects, 2011 Revision and FAOStat http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Maps/maps_overview.htm and http://

faostat.fao.org/site/550/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID=550#ancor

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Needs Requires a strategic approach, an appreciation of

scale, and an understanding of the interactions between and within systems

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The current ACIAR SSA Farming Systems project Builds on the work of Dixon et al 2001

www.fao.org/farmingsystems/

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2001 Farming Systems and Poverty Widely accepted as pioneering body of work – looked

at things as a ‘surface’ across landscape not confined by country borders – often problems are regional

Largely driven by LGP/AEZ and market access, supplemented by expert opinion

Extensively used to guide investment at the program level and frame analysis in numerous global studies

Approach focused on high level farming systems within six developing regions

Involved use of various thematic data layers to underpin the delineation, characterisation / description and subsequent analysis of systems

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Kenya

Tanzania

Zimbabwe

Zambia

Moz

ambiqu

e

Uganda

Rwanda

Malawi

#

900 0 900 Kilometers

N

Major Farming Systems

1. Irrigation

2. Tree crop

3. Forest based

4. Rice-tree crop

5. Highland perennial

6. Highland temperate mixed

7. Root crops

8. Cereal-root crops mixed

9. Maize mixed

11. Agro-pastoral millet/sorghum

12. Pastoral

13. Sparse (arid)

14. Coastal artisanal fishing

Major Lakes

National Boundaries

Major rivers

Regional ProgrammeCountries

10. Large commercial and smallholder

Program Application

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Hunger Hotspots and Farming Systems

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Sub-Saharan Update Is there a demand for this information?

Farming systems website in FAO still one of the most visited sites within the organisation – up to 4,000 hits per month (Site > 10 years old!)

Consistent seamless datasets somewhat limited in original work

In need of updating as spatial extent of systems and frame conditions changed e.g. climate, population, urbanisation, market access, economics etc.

Many updated and new datasets available

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Capture and use data and information in an manner that informs decisions in a simple fashion

Maintain rigour and transparency Establishing an enduring

infrastructure/framework to enable changes to be monitored over time

Ability to support numerous policy initiatives – Principle: collect it once – use it many

Challenge

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Current Situation 2012 – Large quantity of potential datasets – approx. 300

alone in the Harvest Choice database temporal and some predictive data now available

GAEZ 3.0 - 1,000’s of datasets representing 100’s of thematic layers

Question - which ones to use and how Strategic approach

Access and collation Assess (fit-for-purpose) and Prioritise (currency, coverage,

scale etc) Process Products Disseminate

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Methodology Work in collaborative fashion with authors and other large

data providers e.g. IFPRI – Harvest Choice, UN-FAO, ILRI, ICRAF, IIASA, CGIAR others

.

Spatial and Tabular Data

Delineate new Farm-ing System Boundar-ies – Iterative pro-cess based on concept of central tendency

Statistics and Anal-ysis

Characterise and describe systems

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Approach Integration of new datasets –

LGP and Market access Supporting Datasets

Population (rural, urban, total) Livestock – cattle, sheep, goats, poultry, LU and

TLU Crop areas and production Yield gaps Protected areas Poverty $2.00 and $1.25 /day Nutrition

ElevationSlope, aspect, drainageSettlements, ports, marketsRoad, rail, river, ICT networksMarket travel times & costs

Hunger, Poverty & Productivity Spatial Covariates/Proxies & Analytical Flow

Port travel times & costs

Terrain, Demography,

Infrastructure, Admin Units

ProductionEnvironment &

Constraints

ProductionSystems &

Performance

Interventions/Responses

Agroecological ZonesCropland extent & intensityPests & Diseases (Maize Stem Borer)Drought Incidence & SeverityRunoffAdministrative Units Farming SystemsCrop Suitability: Rainfed WheatCrop Distribution & YieldsValue of Production per Rural Person

NA

010

2030

40

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

100 80 60 40 20 0

IrrigationThreshold

% of AvailableSoil Water

MaizeYield

Potentialt[DM]/ha

Fertilizer Application Ratekg[N]/ha

Yield Responses to Inputs, Management, CCProfitability of small scale irrigationQuantity of Nutrients RemovedFertilizer ProfitabilityDistribution of Welfare Benefits

Linkage toMacroModels

Aggregate to FPUs

Source: HarvestChoice 2010

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Changes between 2001 and 2012

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Yield Gap – Aggregate of Major Crops

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Big questions for management and policy

What is it? Where is it? What are its characteristics and how does it

operate ? What are the risks/threats ? What are the opportunities (Research / Extension)

? How are these issues changing with time ? Evaluation and Performance

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Spatial data Tool to support process Understand Analyse Develop interventions Monitor Not the answer in itself

has limitations Fit for purpose Complement with expert knowledge

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Spatial data and ACIAR Activities Update of Farming Systems for Sub-Saharan Africa Informing development of policy and program

development as part of the ACIAR ‘Australian International Food Security Centre (AIFSC)’ Announced by Prime Minister Gillard October 2011-

International focus, recognising the significance of food security to developing countries.

Providing a bridge between agriculture (technologies, policies and practices) and their adoption by smallholder farmers (including livestock keepers). Increase adoption increase productivity and diversity and generate additional income

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AIFSC Research gaps in terms of food security,

agriculture and nutrition in line with the AIFSC strategy and African priorities

Support in determining how AIFSC could best complement work being undertaken by partners in target countries and where we should invest

Nutrition indicators – under-nutrition, child nutrition, maternal under-nutrition, micronutrient deficiencies

Nutrition interventions , regional analysis, country snapshots

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Thanks Acknowledgements

ACIAR IFPRI – Harvest Choice CGIAR ILRI ICRAF FAO IIASA others

Questions & Discussion