spatial data and analysis in support of improved policy and planning
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Spatial Data and Analysis in Support of Improved Policy and Planning. Christopher Auricht / John Dixon ACIAR Canberra 21 June 2012. Talk outline. Context and Background Needs Issues and status of spatial data - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Spatial Data and Analysis in Support of Improved Policy and Planning
Christopher Auricht / John DixonACIARCanberra 21 June 2012
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Talk outline Context and Background Needs Issues and status of spatial data Methodology used in developing an updated
farming systems dataset and analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa
Status and future work
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Facts According to CGIAR analysis
One billion of the worlds poor within Africa and Asia (those living on less than $1 per day) are fed primarily by: hundreds of millions of small-holder farmers (most
with less than 2 ha of land, several crops, and a cow or two), or
Herders (most with fewer than five large animals)
Solution ? Develop sustainable farming systems that
improve efficiency gains to produce increased food production without using more land, water or other inputs
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One Billion People Suffer Chronic Hunger and Poverty
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Scale of Rural Hunger Nearly one billion people experience debilitation,
health-threatening hunger each year 4 out of 5 of these people are rural farmers
Trends in maize shortage in ZambiaPercentage of farm households with maize shortage
The Hunger Period
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Population density and underweight children under five
Sources: CIESIN and Hunger Task Force (A and B, unpublished data)
And GAEZ database
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Background Business as usual investments in agriculture unlikely
to deliver sustainable solutions in many countries Numerous issues often identified as barriers to
progress e.g. inefficiencies in program delivery, political uncertainty etc. These are not the only problem!
Existing systems (often under stress) have been, and are expected to continue to accommodate large increases in population, increasing urbanisation, rising demand for animal products and competition for land and water
Forecasts suggesting that current practices will not stay abreast with population growth, environmental change and increasing demand for animal products.
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Needs Requires a strategic approach, an appreciation of
scale, and an understanding of the interactions between and within systems
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The current ACIAR project Builds on the work of Dixon et al 2001
www.fao.org/farmingsystems/
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2001 Farming Systems and Poverty Global study – part of the World Bank Rural Sector
Review Widely accepted as pioneering body of work Been extensively used to guide investment at the
program level. Approach focused on high level farming systems
within six developing regions Involved use of various thematic data layers to
underpin the delineation, characterisation / description and subsequent analysis of systems
Supplemented by expert opinion
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Sub-Saharan Update Farming systems website in FAO still one of
the most visited sites within the organisation
Previous study 10 years old Consistent seamless datasets somewhat
limited in original work In need of updating as spatial extent of
systems and frame conditions changed e.g. population, urbanisation etc.
Many updated and new datasets available
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Current Situation 2012 – Large quantity of potential datasets – approx. 300
alone in the Harvest Choice database longitudinal and some predictive data now available
GAEZ 3.0 - 1,000’s of thematic datasets representing 100’s of layers
Challenge – which ones to use and how Strategic approach
Access and collation Assess (fit-for-purpose) and Prioritise (currency, coverage,
scale etc) Process Disseminate
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Methodology Work in collaborative fashion with authors and other large
data providers e.g. IFPRI – Harvest Choice, UN-FAO, ILRI, ICRAF, IIASA, CGIAR others
.
Spatial and Tabular Data
Delineate new Farm-ing System Boundar-ies – Iterative pro-cess based on concept of central tendancy
Statistics and Anal-ysis
Characterise and describe systems
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Current Status Draft Farming System Boundaries Material for thematic areas covering
Population time-series avail for rural, urban and total
Poverty $2.00 and $1.25 /day Environment – LGP, Rainfall, Elevation, Major Envt
Constraints, Slope, Satellite Imagery Livestock Crops (major crops) Irrigation Time to market Yield gap
ElevationSlope, aspect, drainageSettlements, ports, marketsRoad, rail, river, ICT networksMarket travel times & costs
Hunger, Poverty & Productivity Spatial Covariates/Proxies & Analytical Flow
Port travel times & costs
Terrain, Demography,
Infrastructure, Admin Units
ProductionEnvironment &
Constraints
ProductionSystems &
Performance
Interventions/Responses
Agroecological ZonesCropland extent & intensityPests & Diseases (Maize Stem Borer)Drought Incidence & SeverityRunoffAdministrative Units Farming SystemsCrop Suitability: Rainfed WheatCrop Distribution & YieldsValue of Production per Rural Person
NA
010
2030
40
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
100 80 60 40 20 0
IrrigationThreshold
% of AvailableSoil Water
MaizeYield
Potentialt[DM]/ha
Fertilizer Application Ratekg[N]/ha
Yield Responses to Inputs, Management, CCProfitability of small scale irrigationQuantity of Nutrients RemovedFertilizer ProfitabilityDistribution of Welfare Benefits
Linkage toMacroModels
Aggregate to FPUs
Source: HarvestChoice 2010
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Total Population Time Series 1990-2015 1990
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Total Population Time Series 1990-2015 1995
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Total Population Time Series 1990-2015 2000
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Total Population Time Series 1990-2015 2005
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Total Population Time Series 1990-2015 2010
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Total Population Time Series 1990-2015 2015
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Issues Agreed work flow and dissemination Google space What spatial and analytical products are needed Sub-system and sub-regional analysis (new
boundaries and analysis) Other data
Climate change Access to groundwater Protected areas Satellite derived products – LGP, Land-use Incorporation of gap yield datasets
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Thanks Acknowledgements
ACIAR IFPRI – Harvest Choice CGIAR ILRI ICRAF FAO IIASA others
Questions & Discussion