spatial analysis of the relationship between social...

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Geography and Development 10nd Year- No. 27 – Summer 2012

Received : 29/8/2011 Accepted : 9/5/2012 PP : 1- 4

Spatial Analysis of the Relationship between Social Capital and Sustainable Urban

Development Case Study: Cities of West Azarbaijan Province

Dr. Mir Najaf Mousavi Assistant Professor of Urban Planning Geography University of Urmia

Hakimeh Ghanbari Ph.D Student of Urban Planning Geography University of Tabriz

Khaled Esmaeilzadeh M.Sc of Sociology Azad University of Sardasht

Introduction From 1970s onward, the concept and meaning of development was revised that the result of this change was the concept of human development. An important dimension of human development is sustainable development which emphasizes on changing human based view to production based view. Accordingly, physical capital is not the only investment in a country but also human and social capitals gain more importance and can be an essential tool with high capability and performance in clarifying and solving the issues and problems human society faced with, which provide the situation for achieving sustainable development . Hence, the concept of sustainable development, sees the environment health and tendency to sustainable development through the partnership of local organizations. This partnership will lead to social capital. This social capital must be with more per capita for the next generations comparing with today's generation. Social capital like the concept of physical capital and human capital refers to the characteristics of social organization such as networks, norms and trust which facilitates the coordination and cooperation for mutual benefit. Social capital increases the benefit of investment in the field of physical and human capital. Nowadays, many of designers and planners know social capital as an important tool for sustainable development in the environment, social, cultural and economical field and have special attention on this issue and in practice consider social capital and sustainable development as supplement and related from different aspects. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the social capital theory and its relationship to sustainable development in the cities of West Azarbaijan province in Iran. Accordingly, first the various dimensions of social capital in the cities of West Azarbaijan province have been evaluated and then sustainability of the cities have been leveled and finally, the relationship between social capital and sustainable development in the cities of West Azarbaijan province is discussed.

2Geography and Development, 10nd Year, No.27,Summer 2012

Research Methodology This is an applied research type and its study methods is descriptive – analytical and correlation. Statistical society is 36 cities of West Azarbaijan province for sustainable development based on administrative- political divisions of year 2006. The indices of urban sustainable development includes 8 features of population, social, economical, health-medical, cultural, urban infrastructure facilities and equipment, transport and communication and physical indices. The sample volume has been selected 384 people based on Cochran’s formula for the component of social capital. Component of social capital indices include 5 components of social participation, high interest to society , social trust, cooperation and assistance, family relations and friends. Sampling method to measure social capital is sampling with optimal allocation based on population of each city. Tool for gathering sustainable development data which includes 53 indices, are public census of population of housing, statistical yearbooks and relevant organizations and institutions. Tool for gathering social capital data is questionnaire .the questionnaire has been measured through Likert and a five-choice scale. The models of Tapsis , Entropy Coefficient and cluster analysis are used for analysis of sustainable urban development. Also for the relationship between the variables, the inferential statistical tests such as correlation, regression and path analysis were used. Discussions and Results Research findings show that from the view point of urban sustainable development, out of 36 cities of the province, Urmia city is placed at very high-level development and Mahabad, Khoy and Bukan at high-level development and 6 cities at medium-level and other cities are placed at low and very low-level of development, that shows a gap between the cities in sustainable urban development. From the view point of social capital, cities of Mahabad, Bukan, Urmia, Khoy are placed at very high-level ,7 cities at high-level, 12 cities at medium-level and 13 cities at low and very low-level. Findings obtained from field studies show that social capital in the cities of West Azarbaijan province is 2.96 that is 59.28 % , which its most part belongs to Mahabad city with about 76.6% and its lowest belongs to Firuragh city of about 48.4%. Also, Findings show that the relations of family and friends with 3.39 namely 67.8% has the highest and social participation with 2.66 namely 53.2 % has the lowest level of social capital. In terms of physical development, Findings indicate the development of large cities and lack of development of small towns, and in terms of social capital, larger cities likewise have higher social capital than smaller cities. In general, the results indicate that among the five dimensions of social capital , social participation, high interest to society, cooperation and assistance, family relations and friends have a significant relationship with urban sustainable development and social trust due to its weak relation with urban sustainable development is meaningless. Conclusion The results show that the rate of urban inequality for sustainable development indices is 1.33 in the cities of West Azarbaijan province, that shows the gap between the components of urban sustainable development. Moreover, the spatial distribution of the development level shows development is very low in most cities. Also, in terms of overall development, the pattern of regional space in West Azarbaijan province is Core-Periphery. That is how much become closer to the big cities in terms of demographic, economic, administrative , the cities are more developed because most cities in the

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province are small towns. Therefore, these cities are located at the surrounding areas of the province. Also, the top-down planning in the structure plan of the state and regions has increased the proscription of small towns. In total based on the results, we can say that component of the high interest to society with 0.395 has had the highest impact on sustainable development in cities of West Azarbaijan province. Finally, based on the existing facts, we can say that there is a relation between sustainable development and social capital to the amount of 0.67 with % 99 of confidence level. Keywords: Social capital, Urban sustainable development, Spatial analysis, West azarbaijan Province. References

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Assessment of Suitable General Atmosphere Circulation Models for Forecasting Temperature and Precipitation Amounts in Iran Under Condition of Global Warming

Dr. GholamReza Roshan Assistant Professor of Climatology University of Golestan, Gorgan

Dr. Faramarz Khoshakhlagh Assistant Professor of Climatology University of Tehran

Dr. Ghasem Azizi Associate Professor of Climatology University of Tehran

Introduction Exacerbation of the global warming will be inevitable in the coming decades due to the current pace of emission of greenhouse gases. So that he global warming will have the same impact on either environment and natural flora and fauna or human activities. Due to locating most part of Iran in the arid and semi-arid climate, the study of regimes of temperature and precipitation in Iran under the impact of global warming gains importance. Different methods have been developed to simulate and predict the future climate, the most comprehensive of which is general circulation models (GCM). These models have been developed with the objective of simulating all tree-dimensional properties of the weather. This feature makes these methods the most comprehensive of the atmospheric models of forecasting the future regimes of the weather. Specifying the best model that can prognosticate the future climatic conditions from general circulation models helps develop tools and strategies to prevent wasting of national natural resources and better managing of the risks. With having this in mind, the present paper aims at the examination of the suitable model among the general circulation models to predict the temperature and precipitation values for Iran under the impact of global warming. Research Methodology The present research has used 20 models of GCM and the unitary scenario of P50, the mean of SRES scenario or emissions scenarios. Temperature and precipitation data for Iran in time of 1961-1990 was selected as the base data and changes in temperature and precipitation for 2000-2005 were investigated according to the proposed scenario and changes in temperature and precipitation for 1961-1990 to develop the suitable model compatible with the experimental data on temperature and precipitation for the proposed period. To this end, to predict and modeling the changes in temperature and precipitation as the result of rise in greenhouse gas emissions, the integrated MAGICC SCENGEN has been used.


Discussions and Results One of the findings of this research at calculation and interpretation of the real values of temperature and precipitation of country for the period 2000-2005 was identifying the presence of inverse curve of temperature and precipitation during the period of study in such a way that with increase (or decrease) in temperature, a decreasing ( or increasing ) trend of precipitation can e seen. This finding is related to regions of mid-latitudes and sub-tropical regions which have precipitation of cold season. In these latitudes, increase in precipitation (or decrease) coincides with decrease in (or increase) in temperature. The findings of simulated temperature and precipitation for period of 2025 and 2050 indicate an increase in the country’s temperature as 1.24 degrees Celsius for 2025 and 2.44 degrees Celsius for 2050 compared to that in 2005. For example, for regions such as Kerman, Yazd, Sistan and Baluchestan, Hormozgan, and Southern Khorasan experience the maximum increase in temperature. Changes in precipitation for 2025 and 2050 compared to that in 2005 shows an increase of 25.19 and 26.40 percent, respectively. This increase, however is more tangible in regions such as Kerman, Sistan and Baluchestan, and Southern Khorasan, but remember that maximum increase has been predicted for these regions. Conclusion The findings of the simulation of changes in temperature and precipitation in Iran for the period 2000-2005 indicates that the most suitable model to predict the future values of these parameters is the combined output of two models, GISS-EH and CNRM-CM3. The findings of each model displays significant correlation with the real data of precipitation compared to other models. According to the higher correlation of INMCM-30 with the real data series of temperature, this model is proposed as most suitable model. The findings show that none of the general circulation models can simulate the real atmospheric conditions of the change in temperature and precipitation, so this fact renders them without any additional merit and credit in better simulation of temperature and precipitation. The interesting point is that the use of integrated models apparently works more effectively than the use of an output model of a GCM model. Keywords: Forecasting, Simulate, GCM model, temperature and precipitation, Iran. References 1- Babaeian E, Najafe N.Z, Zabol Abbase F, Habbibi Nokhandan M, Adab H, Malbusi Sh (2009).

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Assessment of Suitable General Atmosphere Circulation Models for ...



Received : 3/9/2011 Accepted : 9/5/2012 PP : 8 - 10

The Geopllitical Opportunities and Challenges of the Islamic Republic of

IRAN in the Markets of Natural Gas

Dr. Yadollah Karimipour

Associate Professor of Political Geography

University of Tarbiyate Moallem, Tehran

Introduction In order to reduce the country’s dependence on oil revenues and develop new sources of foreign exchange earnings, using its great potential of natural gas resources and preserve and broaden its geo-economic role in the region and the world, the Islamic Republic of Iran should implement a high-profit, low-risk, and reliable trading strategy for macro scale selling of its natural gas. The main question of this paper is that, among the five major trading markets, namely the Persian Gulf, Indian Subcontinent, East Asia, China, and Europe, which one has the above said strategic features and criteria. The following four concerns restrict Iran’s ability to reach/participate in the natural gas market: 1- ever-tightening intentional sanctions, especially by North America and the European Union, and

most recently by East Asia; 2- The slow production cycle of natural gas, especially in marine fields, including in the South Pars

Gas Condensate Field; 3- Iran’s major flaws in the LGN production technology and great lags from Qatar; and 4- Lack of the required investment for operating production cycle, in comparison with other

competitors in the market. This article studies the target markets of the Islamic Republic of Iran by considering these limitations Research Methodology This article by implementing analytical – descriptive method and by referring to library, documentary and first hand reports specifies the Islamic Republic’s challenges for entering in to natural gas markets and seeks appropriate answers to this fundamental question of the article. This article is largely influenced by the methods and outcomes of Mert Bilgin’s research methodology, which is published in the paper named“Geopolitics of European dependence on natural gas and Energy politics magazine( spring 2009). Discussion and Results The researcher, based on the documents and statistical analysis approves that the subcontinent market( pipe line of peace ) in not considered strategic for Iran due to the political tensions between

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India and Pakistan, insecure pipeline routes, poverty of original countries from the view point of foreign currency payments, and seemingly insoluble India-Pakistan disputes over trade rules. Also from this view, the markets of southern countries of Persian Gulf is not a strategic market for Iran due to the smallness of markets, dependency of the domestic industry of these countries on the state subsides, complicated and various discrepancies between Iran and these countries, and also the existence of Qatar as the holder of the third largest natural gas resources in the world. Furthermore, LNG market of the East Asia, which includes Japan and Korea, seems unattainable for Iran up to a foreseeable future, because of great lag of Iran from Qatar, widespread sanctions, seclusion of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Also the China market cannot be a substantial market for the natural gas of Iran due to some reasons including great distance from Iran, time lag of Iran in comparing with the other exporter countries. Meanwhile, at the present time, Iran for entering in to the world markets as the second holder of natural gas reserves in the world and selecting a proper market, must overcome to its most fundamental problem i.e. low production. Among all of the countries with natural gas reserves, Iran has the lowest reserves-to-production ratio. Also the Islamic Republic, in its shared fields in the Persian Gulf with Qatar, Kuwait, and in the Caspian Sea with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan has a weak place from the view point of investment, technology and advancement of logistics.

Conclusion From the view point of this research, the European Union market for natural gas market is the most strategic and lucrative one for Iran, since:

1- Europe seeks to diversify its sources of natural gas imports in order to reduce its reliance on Russia;

2- Iran-Europe pipeline is shorter and has fewer geopolitical complications in comparison; 3- the European market is an advanced market with growing demand for imported energy; and 4- Europe is the safest pipeline route.

Consequently, the Islamic Republic of Iran should recognize the undeniable importance of European Union among its natural gas markets.

Keywords: Geopolitical chances, Geopolitical challenges, Natural gas market, Geo economy, Nabokov, Peace pipe line, Iran embargo

References 1- Etkinson R.F and et.al (2000). History philosophy, translated by Nouri, Hasan Ali, Tarhe nov,

Tehran. 2- Rabiee Guilani, Maryam, review of Iran’s map in LNG market up to year (2020). M.S thesis of

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Ergodicity in Geomorphology

Dr. Seyed Ali Almodaresi Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering Yazd Branch, Islamic Azad University

Dr. Mohammad Hossein Ramesht Professor of Geomorphology University of Isfahan

Dr. Ali Reza Abbasi Assistant Professor of Geomorphology Najaf Abad Branch, Islamic Azad University

Dr. Masoud Moayeri Associate Professor of Geomorphology University of Isfahan

Hossein Entezari M.Sc Student of Civil Engineering Young Research Club, Yazd Branch Islamic Azad University

Introduction Several methods have been offered to explain the uneven change patterns in the form of developmental investigations as well as studies of geomorphologic processes and systematic literature probes. One of these methods entails the creation of a mathematical model based on analytic extrapolations and numerical simulations, while another is modeling physical landscape changes, using reality display hard wares on a small scale (Massly and Zimpfer, 1976). A third approach is based on the assumption that creating the revolutionary patterns of a geomorphic landscape can be reconstructed by analyzing the phenomenal procedure present on the site, and therefore the difficulties of time could be eliminated by developmental changes. Accordingly, it is believed that if one landscape elapses its revolution creation in six stages, it is not necessary to observe and record the analysis from the start to the end, but in every stage of creation, the index form in the change scene is created as a prevailing phenomenon in which such forms are not destroyed in successive stages and few remain in the landscape. Now, if in the final stage of geomorphic landscape we witness several forms, which do not create the prevailing form but which exist in the scene, then each of the remaining forms can be separated and shown. By default, we can consider any form of the model as a logical representative of a period of time in

the development hierarchy, and hence based on the variety of forms that we have seen, conclusions can be drawn about the changes occurred over time. Statistically speaking, we can call this data sampling method “Ergodic”, as spatial alternative collections of time. “Ergo” in the Greek language means work or energy and “hodos” means way (Pain, 1985). In simple words, Ergodicity in Geomorphology denotes a historically revolutionary change model of phenomena so that these changes could be classified into different stages. The most important feature of this classification is based on the same average change rate during each stage of development. The purpose of the present study, taken from a theoretical project at Isfahan University, is to describe the ergodicity concept in geomorphology using a watershed basin created by a miniature model in a natural space (crack areas of Meybod Plain), to evaluate its changes influenced by artificial rain, and to describe the case of ergo concept which has not been widely perused in geomorphology


Research Methodology The data analyzed in this research are related to the changes in a single miniature basin that is obtained by an artificial rainfall in four separate stages. Initially, measures were taken to evaluate the desired location in crack areas of Meybod, Yazd. A miniature basin in completely natural conditions and without any artificial manipulation situated in 25 km north Yazd with 500m distance from main road with an extent of 10 m2 was selected. After marking and preparing the basin to obtain the base map, the researchers took vertical images of the miniature basin, and initial height data were obtained via installed index, determining the base line level and measuring the height of each indicator installed with the base index level. Despite the continuous rainfall, there was no precipitation outside the basin. Continuing the operation in the next day showed that a special state called “Steady State” was obtained which established the stability. Afterwards, the driven data had to be extended so that instead of four forms of basins an interface could be achieved. In this stage, the continuous mode of change in the basin has been measured, using GRD files and their processing in Wechsler Software. With the extended data in this software, fifty frames of the basin change patterns were obtained and image and paired analysis of the fifty frames driven were possible in DiGem Software with a statistical analysis framework. The paired analysis on the basis of statistical indicators enabled us to calculate the average change in each stage, the separate transformation stage and the time phase. Discussion and Results Ergodicity in geomorphology means models of historical revolutionary changes of a phenomenon so that these changes can be classified into different stages. The notion of the separate stage is based on average rate of change in each phase. In other words, levels which have an equal moderate variation are considered as a phase. On the other hand, the change development process of each geomorphologic phenomenon can have an indicator stage. By implementing the first stage of rainfall, assessment has been done to the changes occurred at the rainfall scene, and the subsequent rainfall phase is continued. This evaluation is carried on up to the last stage. In the fifth stage of rainfall, however, the basin outlet reached zero although the long-run rainfall did not show any changes in the outlet. Next day, this operation was repeated and the same results were obtained. Such cases represent the achievement of a stable system, i.e. a desired change to zero. The total rainfall conducted on the basin from the start till the end of the modeling was 206.5 min, and Debi of rainfall was 0.569 Li/s. It is important to point out that severe rainfall with constant Debi till the last stage was done. After obtaining the digital data of the basin in four rainfall stages, these figures should be changed into intermediate figures so that the evolution of the basin in the conditions of these four stages can be reconstructed. This was done using the Voxler Program, and the obtained numbers were converted to images so as to show all continuous changes between the first and the fourth stage The Voxler Software can show all the changes in the stages in the form of continuous images. After achieving the preliminary imagery analysis of the prepared files in the Voxler Software, the researchers converted it to Digem Software Program. Due to the high capability of this software, images of the basin changes were prepared in 50 separate frames (figure 4). This enables us to study the 50 achieved phases rather than to evaluate the phase that has equivalent average changes and the ratio of separate phase change that indicates the proceeded ergodic stages. Conclusion Although various methods exist, including mathematical models based on extrapolation, reconstruction model and analysis of forms present on scene, geo-allometric model and physical modeling of landscape changes using reality display hardware in a smaller scale is highly significant to explain the development, the accuracy of the simulation miniature method in development stages, and changes of phases in a watershed basin. As the research analysis demonstrated, three distinct phases of change development in relation to the miniature watershed model are extractable, and

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similar results are shown with the quantitative method as well as the qualitative method. Phase 1 consists of 1-9 stages (figure 4) and is recognized as the first spatial phase in which the structural equilibrium will begin to change. The second phase is 10-24 where in-equilibrium is intensive, whereas the third phase consists of 25-50 stages, repeated movements with negative feedback that start towards other equilibriums. Of course, each stage known as a macro phase is divided into several micro phases, indicating the position, intensity and magnitude of the change index. On the basis of what was shown in figure 5 and 6, it is clear that the micro phase based on the macro phase is distinguishable. According to figure 2, the height changes of the four frames found in the basin make clear that equilibrium, the mechanism of corrosion and its repeated rehabilitation in the basin are the function of operational forces. Regarding the prevailing process in miniature model, rainfall can also be considered for other modeling processes. In this way, different ergodic process models can be compared. For the purpose of modeling the changes, the softwares used in this research; namely, Didger, Voxler and Surfer are recommended. Of course, stating engineering obligations and limitations in applying these softwares are very important; this is, however, beyond the scope of the present study. Another important finding in this study is the true function of the standard deviation of digital height data to determine the phase of ergodic changes, not being mentioned in other similar researches. However, with extensive experiments and especially using tectonic in the miniature model, new illuminating findings will certainly be achieved that will guide related studies regarding the substitution of time and space. On the other hand, the researchers’ access to efficient softwares in the field of extended and digital reconstruction period could help us to detect the non-registered processes. Therefore, the complexity of Ergodicity discussion neglected in Geomorphology can be explained on the strength of accurate digital and statistical documents. Substituting categories of space with time is one of the main goals of Ergo, which is, indeed, possible and practical. As seen, 8 phases of change in the changes of miniature basin were detected, and even on the strength of different rate of standard deviation, steps with visual capabilities, which could not be distinguished accurately, are feasible now. Keywords: Ergodic, model, analog, progressive changes, landscape changes ,theoric geomorphology Refrences 1- Brown (1976). Ergodic theory and topological Dynamics. New York, Academic Press 2- Brunsden, D. and Thornes, J.B. (1977). Geomorphology and time. London, Methuen. 3- Bull, W. B (1977). Allometric change of landforms. Geological Society of America Bulletin, 86

(11). 4- Bull, W.B (1975). Land forms do not tend toward a steady state. In theories of land forms

development. Boston: Alien & Unwin 5- Carson, M. A (1971). The Mechanics of Erosion. London, Pion. 6- Carter, C. S. & Chorley, R. J. (1961). Early Slope Development in an Expanding Stream System.

Geological Magazine, 98. 7- Gould, S. J (1966). Allometry and size in ontogeny and phylogeny.Biol.Rev.,41. 8- Melton, M.A (1958). Geometric properties of mature drainage systems and their representation in

an E4 phase space. Journal of Geology 66, 35-54. Professional Paper 252 9- Mosley, M.P. and Zimpfer, G.L (1976). Explanation in geomorphology. Zeitschrift f & uuml;r

Geomorphologie 20. 10- Nash, D. B (1984). Morphologic dating of fluvial terrace scarps and fault scarps near West

Yellowstone, Montana. Geological Society of America Bulletin 95 (12). 11- Pain, A. D. M (1985). "Ergodic’ reasoning in geomorphology: time for a review of the term?

Progress in Physical Geography, 9 (1). 12- Sarigear, R.A.G (1952). Some observations on slope development in South Wales. Transactions,

Institute of British Geographers 18.

Ergodicity in Geomorphology


Geography and Development

10nd Year- No. 27 – Summer 2012 Received : 3/9/2011 Accepted : 9/5/2012

PP : 14- 17

The Assessment of Geostatistic Methods and Linear Regression in Order to Specify the Spatial Distribution of Annual Precipitation

Case study: Boushehr Province

Dr. Gholam Ali Mozaffari Assistant Professor of Geography University of Yazd

Dr. Seyed Hossein Mirmusavi Assistant Professor of Geography University of Zanjan

Younes Khosravi

M.Sc Student of Climatology

Introduction The time variability of precipitation is considered as a key factor affecting on the structure and functioning of ecosystems, but from the view point of size and scale is far less than the spatial variability (Knapp and Smith, 2001; Austin et al, 2004; Collins et al, 2008). Determine the most appropriate interpolation methods at a regional level and its spatial and location distribution, is necessary for spatial distribution of rainfall. There are different methods to estimate parameters that as the classical methods, such as Thissen and arithmetic average proposed. Although all of these calculations are quick and easy, but for reasons including failure to consider the location, layout and relationship between them, are not of good accuracy. There are other methods that consider the spatial correlation structures of the data are of great importance that such method is geostatistic. In geostatistic, first the presence or absence of spatial structure of the data is presented and then if there is spatial structure, data analysis is performed. Precipitation behavior in each region varies according to altitude. This behavior is described in the regression relationship in relation with height or the distance. On the other hand, because each region has its own spatial characteristics, so follows a certain interpolation method and the results of one region can not be attributed to another region. The aim of this study is to review the relationship between precipitation and elevation based on digital elevation model and then evaluating its results with ordinary kriging and simple models in order interpolate the annual rainfall in Bushehr province.

Research Methodology The study area is Bushehr province. from the number of 101 stations in the region, due to short-term period and the selection of suitable sites with good dispersion, only data from 57 precipitation stations with 11-year period (1997-2007) were used. The statistical methods used in this study are as follows: A- Geostatistic methods: Method used for interpolation, is kriging which is the best linear unbiased estimate ..

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B - Variogram analysis The main purpose of calculating the variogram is that be able to recognize variability of the variable regard to the spatial or time distance. For performing this, it is necessary to calculate the sum square differences between couples placed at the distance of h from each other and be plotted against h. C- Methods and evaluation criteria Different interpolation method based on the Cross-Validation procedure will be evaluated. In this method, a point is removed temporarily and by using the considered interpolation, a value is estimated for that point. Then the removed value is returned to its place and for the rest of points, this estimate is done separately. D - Linear regression Regression analysis provides the possibility to predict the changes of dependent variables through independent variables and determine the share of each independent variables in explaining of the dependent variable. Discussion and Results A- Analysis of kriging interpolation model in precipitation interpolation Semi variogram was used for spatial analysis of data. For making the best interpolation, the most important step, is presenting an appropriate model of Semi variogram. The models used in this study include: spherical model, exponential model, Gaussian model, circular model, rational quadratic, Tetra spherical and Penta spherical modal which have made with two techniques of simple kriging and ordinary kriging. The best model which is able to explain the spatial distribution of rainfall is the exponential model of ordinary kriging. So with great confidence we can use this model for estimation of rainfall and other parameters used in the region. B- Evaluation of linear regression based on digital elevation model for the interpolation of precipitation There are wide equations for performing interpolation by regression analysis, which selecting the appropriate equation, depends on the correlation value between the secondary and primary variables. For this purpose firstly, the data of rainfall and altitude of the under study were called in ver1.4 Curve Expert software environment by using linear regression models. Then the considered data were fitted by 18 models. Correlation between topography and spatial interpolation methods indicates that the highest correlation exists respectively, in the fourth degree polynomial, quadratic functions and ordinary kriging model with exponential model. Correlation with the topography of the exponential model showed a positive relationship between amounts of precipitation with altitude but this relationship is weaker than the other two methods that this kind of relationship clears the relationship of rainfall and rainfall in the rainfall interpolation.

Conclusion 1-The best method for interpolation of annual rainfall in Bushehr province, the fourth degree polynomial regression function was diagnosed. 2 -The use of linear regression methods and using it in the digital elevation model of the earth, shows better the precipitation behavior in the areas where are faced with a lack or deficiency of stations, which itself shows better the value of this approach in environmental studies.

The Assessment of Geostatistic Methods and Linear Regression in ...


3-One of the principles of kriging interpolation method is the existing of basic point data ,containing a point value to a parameter that the proper and adequate attention to the distribution manner of meteorology stations reduces the errors and increases the accuracy of interpolation. 4-Cluster analysis can be used to verify the homogeneity of selected data in different zones. Because cluster analysis creates the possibility that similar data can be placed in one group and while the data within a group have many similarities with each other, but other groups have significant differences. 5-The final goal of the spatial variation of rainfall is the safe simulation of precipitation data changes in location, so that the next targets, including short-term and long-term forecasts of rainfall in each region is provided. Keywords: Geostatistics, Linear Regression, Digital Elevational Model (DEM), Geographic Information System (GIS), Precipitation, Boushehr province. Refrences 1- Asakereh, H (1387). Application of the kriging interpolation of precipitation (Case study:

12/26/1376 interpolation of precipitation in Iran), Geography and Development, No. 12 2- Austin, A. T., L. Yahdjian, J. M. Stark, J. Belnap, A. Porporato, U. Norton, D. A. Ravetta, and S.

M. Schaeffer (2004). Water pulses and biogeochemical cycles in arid and semiarid ecosystems. Oecologia 141.

3- Bndrabady Rahimi, S.Mehdian, MH (1382). Spatial variation of monthly rainfall in arid and semiarid regions of South East Iran, the third regional conference and the first national conference on climate change, Isfahan University.

4- Collins, S.L. Sinsabaugh, R.L. Crenshaw, C. Green, L. Porras Alfaro, A. Stursova, M. Zeglin, L.H (2008). Pulse dynamics and microbial processes in aridland ecosystems, Journal of Ecology, 96.

5- Dingman, S. L., Seely-Reynolds, D.M., and Reynolds, R.C (1998). Application of Kriging to Estimating Mean Auual Precipitation in a Region of Orographic Influence. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 24.

6- Donald L Phillips L,D. Jayne Dolph J and Marks, D (1992). A Comparison of Geostatistical Procedures for Spatial Analysis of Precipitation in Ountainous Terrain. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 58.

7- Dehghani, M (1387). Application and an estimate of the types of kriging, MA Seminar, University of Yazd.

8- Goovaerts, P (2000). Geostatistical Approach for Incorporating Elevation into Spatial Interpolation Rainfall. Journal of Hydrology, Amsterdam. 228(1-2).

9- Hargrove, W (2001). Interpolation of rainfall in Switzerland using a regularized spline with tension. Geographic Information and Spatial Technologies Group, book Ridge National laboratory.

10- Iran Meteorological Organization (1388). Meteorological Yearbook. 11- Isaaks, E.H, Srivastava, R.M (1989). Applied Geostatistics. Oxford University Press: New York. 12- Kalantari, Khalil (1385). Processing and data analysis in social research - Economic using

software SPSS, Sharif publication.

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13- Knapp, A.K. Smith, M, D (2001). Variation among Biomes in Temporal Dynamics of Aboveground Primary Production, Journal of Science, 291.

14- Krishna murthy, B.R and SAbbaiah, G (2007). Geostatistical Analysis for Estimation of Mean Rainfalls in Andhra Pradesh, India, International of Journal of geology, 3(1).

15- Lookingbill, T.R and Urban, D.L (2003). Spatial estimation of air temperature differences for landscape-scale studies in montane environments. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 114.

16- Lashany Zand, Mehran (1381). The guidelines deal with drought and climate of Iran (case study of six basins in West and North West of Iran), Ph.D. Thesis, University of Isfahan.

17- Madani, H (1377). Fundamentals of Statistics, Amirkabir University Press. 18- Masoudian, S. A (1382). Analysis of monthly temperature structure of Iran, Isfahan University

Journal. 19- Mehdizadeh, M (1381). Geostatistical estimation of temperature and precipitation in the lake

basin, MA thesis, Agricultural Meteorology, College of Agriculture, Tehran University. 20- Pak Hosni, AA (1380). Exploratory data analysis, Tehran University Press. 21- Soltani, S., Modarres, R (1385). The frequency and intensity of meteorological drought in

Isfahan, Iran Journal of Natural Resources. 22- Shams al-Din, A (1379). Changes in regional precipitation using kriging in the Northern

provinces, irrigation and drainage MA thesis, Faculty of Agriculture, Shiraz University. 23- Safari, M (1381). Determine the optimal network of groundwater level measurements using

geostatistical methods, case study Chmchal Plains, irrigation and drainage MA thesis, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modarres University.

24- Ronald, P.B., and jay, M.V.H (2009). Blackbox Kriging: Spatial Prediction without Specifying Variogram Models, Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 1(2):297-322.

25- Tazeh, M., Kothari, MR; Bkhshaei, M and Khosravi, y (1387). The land zoning Transo index using the statistics and GIS (Case study: the western part of the Esfahan province), International Conference botanical trees and ecosystems to climate change in the Caspian, Caspian Institute Sari ecosystems.

26- Tally Ghahrood, Manijeh (1384). Three-dimensional GIS environment, Publications Unit, Teacher Training University Jihad, Tehran.

27- Tsakiris G, Vangelis H (2004). towards a drought watch system based on spatial SPI. Water Resour Manag 18(1).

28- Wang,F (2006). Quantitative methods and applications in GIS. CRC Press.

The Assessment of Geostatistic Methods and Linear Regression in ...




Time Series Analysis of the Pressure of the Synoptic Pattern Centers Affecting on Seasonal Precipitation of Iran

Dr. Ali Akbar Rasuly Professor of Natural Geography University of Tabriz

Dr. Iman Babaeian Assistant Professor of Climatology University of Tabriz

Dr. Hushang Ghaemi Professor of I. R. of Iran Meteorological Organization

Dr. Peyman ZawarReza Profassor of Environmental Research Center University of Canterbury, Newzealand

Introduction Iran has a variable and very complicated climate: hot and dry in Central deserts, Monsoonal rainfall in South East regions, Dry and Cold in Northern boundaries and wet and mild in Caspian Sea beaches. Generally, about 70 percent of the average rainfall in the country falls between November and March. Rainfall varies from season to season and from year to year. Precipitation is sometimes concentrated in local, but violent storms causing erosion and local flooding, especially in the winter months. A small area along the Caspian coast has a very different climate; here rainfall is heaviest from late summer to mid winter but falls in general throughout the year. Geographical conditions of Iran has great differences, so that besides the two high mountain chains of Alborz in the north and Zagros in the west, there are areas with low elevation at Caspian sea and center of Iran named Dasht-e Lut and Dasht-e Kavir. Across Iran, mean annual precipitation varies from less than 50mm in Central desert area to above 1500mm in South West of Caspian Sea.. The center of Iran consists of several closed basins that collectively are referred to as the Central Plateau. The eastern part of the plateau is covered by two salt deserts, Dasht-e Kavir (Great Salt Desert) and the Dasht-e Lut. There is a permanent salt lake, Lake Urmia in the northwest of Iran. The presence of different topographic condition and vegetation cover has made different climatic conditions in different parts of Iran. The studies of different researchers show that the most important effective synoptic systems on Iran climate are high pressure of Siberian and low pressures of Mediterranean, Sudanese, Black sea and Monsoon. When strengthening Monsoon system in summer season, a secondary system from low pressure of Monsoon is formed on Persian Gulf which is the continuity of Indian Monsoon. In this study, by using the data of medium sea pressure level of American meteorology and oceanography, the time series of central core pressure of the said systems will be analyzed and studied.

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Research Methodology In this research mean sea level reanalysis data have been downloaded for the period of 1948-2009 from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Regarding to the significant controlling role of Siberian high, Mediterranean, Sudanese, Black Sea and Monsoon lows on the climate of Iran, time series of central pressure of the above mentioned weather systems are extracted for each seasons and years under study. For high pressure weather system, maximum amount of the MSL and for low pressure systems the minimum amount of low pressure are calculated using GrADS analysis display software. For Monsoonal low, only summer MSL is extracted because of dominant activities of the Monsoon in summer. Time series of Siberian high, Mediterranean, Sudanese and Black Sea low in winter and spring are calculated as well. Mann-Kendal non-parametric method is used to check any probable change or trend in the synoptic weather systems affecting Iran from 1948-2009. Then the year of significant change in mean sea level pressure is computed by drawing iu and

'iu series.

Discussion and Results Using Man-Kendal test and statistics and iu and '

iu statistics, trend in time series of all weather

systems affecting Iran and point of change have been determined. Siberian high pressure: There were no significant change in winter time series of Siberian high, but strengthening trend in spring time Siberian high is significant in 95% significant level and point of change is 1974. Strengthening of spring Siberian high pressure can increase the amount of precipitation. Black Sea low pressure: Generally, Black Sea low is a weak low pressure system among all dynamical weather systems affecting Iran. Usually, Black Sea can signify the cyclones passing the Sea toward the east. Man-Kendal test shows that there are significant trends both in winter and spring time series of the systems from 1948-2009. Points of trend are 1978 and 1979 in winter and spring. Mediterranean low pressure: Mediterranean Sea is one of the important regions of cyclogenesis in Middle East. Cyclones usually pass southern part of Mediterranean Sea in February, but their tracks display to the northern part from December to January. Regarding to the many researches done by Iranian scientists, Mediterranean lows have the most weather system that controls Iran climate, especially in the western region. Analysis of 61 years reanalysis pressure data confirm that central pressure of the system has been filled by 3.9 and 2.4mb in winter and spring, respectively, meaning that the cyclogenesis activities has been weakened. Changes in pressures time series are significant in 95% confidence level. Sudanese low pressure: Sudan low is an active system both in warm and cold seasons. It has thermal behavior in summer and brings hot and dry weather to the Arabian Peninsula causing dusty climate. It is a dynamic low pressure in winter and brings humidity to the Arabian Peninsula and south of Mediterranean Sea in cold and rainy seasons. When combining with Mediterranean low, an active and deep combined low forms between Mediterranean Sea and Alborz mountain range of Iran. Usually plateau of Iran experiences heavy rainfall during combined Sudanese and Mediterranean lows. Our results show that during the period of study the central pressure of Sudanese low has been weakened by 2 and 0.5mb in winter and spring.

Time Series Analysis of the Pressure of the Synoptic Pattern Centers ...


Monsoon and Persian Gulf lows: Indian Ocean and Oman Sea have significant effect on the climate of Iran in summers, especially in the southeastern regions. Usually trough of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is elongated toward Persian Gulf in summer, bringing tropical hot and humid air-mass to the region. Statistical tests and trend analysis confirms that central pressure of Monsoon over Pakistan and Persian Gulf low has been decreased by 3.8 and 1.2mb, respectively. Conclusion Statistical behavior of the main synoptic weather systems affecting Iran's climate including Siberian high, Mediterranean low, Sudanese low, Black Sea low, Monsoon and Persian Gulf lows are assessed in this paper during 1948-2009 by using NOAA reanalysis pressure data. Statistical test of Man-Kendal and trend analysis were assessed on time series of the central pressure of the weather systems affecting Iran. It is shown that the central pressure of the main weather systems affecting Iran is weakened. There was no significant change in Siberian high pressure in winters, change in spring time series is significant at 95% confidence level. Weakening of Mediterranean low are 3.9 and 2.4mb in winter and spring. Both of changes are significant. Black Sea low is expected to decrease by 3 and 4mb winter and spring and Sudanese low has been decreased by 2 and 0.5mb.

Keywords: Sea level pressure, Time series, Trend, Mann-Kendal test, Seasonal precipitation of Iran.

Refrences 1- Alijani B (2004). Climate of Iran, 6th edition, Payam-e-Noor University Press, Tehran, 221pp. 2- Azizi Gh., Roshani M (2008). Climate change study over Caspian Sea using Man-Kendal method,

Journal of Geographical Researches, No 64. 3- Deser C. and Phillips A. S., 2009, Atmospheric Circulation Trends, 1950–2000: The Relative

Roles of Sea Surface Temperature Forcing and Direct Atmospheric Radiative Forcing, Journal of Climate, Vol. 22(2).

4- Efimov V. V., Shokurov M. V. and Hein D., Mesoscale Cyclonic Eddies in the Black Sea Region, (2008). Metoffice technical note, No. CTATbR 2008.

5- Evans J. P., 2009, 21st century climate change in the Middle East, Climatic Change, Vol. 92 (3-4). 6- Evans J (2009). Global warming impact on the dominant precipitation processes in the Middle

East, Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 7- Ezber Y., Lutfi Sen O., Kindap T. and Karaca M (2007). Climate effects of urbanization in

Istanbul: a statistical and modeling analysis, International Journal of Climatology, Vol 27. 8- Gong D., Y. and Ho C. H (2001). Siberian High and climate change over middle to high latitude

Asia, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, July 2001. 9- Javanmard, S. et al (2003). Detection of climate change over I. R. Iran using historical synoptic

pattern of middle-east, Proceeding of World Climate Change Conference, 2003, Moscow. 10- Javanmard S., Babaeian I., Bodagh Jamali J., Khazanedari L., Shahabfar A (2003). Investigation

the correlation between Kakstan-Oman Sea Pressure gradient with precipitation of Iran, Journal of Geographical Research, No 71.

11- Kalnay, E and Coauthors (1996). The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis 40-year project. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 77.

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12- Kuteswaram, P (1978). Notes on synoptic meteorology theory, 3rd edition, University of Tehran- Geophysics Institute.

13- Lashkari H (1996). Synoptic patterns of heavy rainfall over Southwest of Iran, PhD thesis in Climatology, Tarbiat Modarress University.

14- Lefevre R. J. and Nielsen-German J. W (1995). An Objective Climatology of Mobile Troughs in the Northern Hemisphere, Tellus, Vol 47.

15- McCabe, G. J., Clark M. P. and Serreze M. C (2001). Trends in Northern Hemisphere Surface Cyclone Frequency and Intensity, Journal of Climate.

16- Modirian R., Karimian M. and Babaein I (2008). Simulation of summer rainfall in southeast of iran using RegCM3 regional climate model, Journal of Nivar, No 66067.

17- Rasuli A (2003). Analysis of time series-extracting first and second climatic elements of Tabriz city, Journal of Nivar, No 46 and 47.

18- Panagiotopoulos, F., Shahgedanova M., Hannachi A. and Stephanson D. B (2005). Observed Trend and Teleconnections of the Siberian High: A Recently Declining Centre of Action, Journal of Climate, 18.

19- Suzana, J. Camargo (2009). How can we predict futurechanges in tropical storm frequency and intensity?: a review, Annual meeting of abrupt climate change in a warming word, July 8-10, 2009, LDEO, Palisades, New york.

20- Trigo I. F., Bigg G. R., Davies T. D (2002). Climatology of Cyclogenesis Mechanisms in the Mediterranean, Monthly Weather Review, Vol.130 (3).

21- Zaitchik B. F., Evans J. P., and Smith R. B (2007). Regional Impact of an Elevated Heat Source: The Zagros Plateau of Iran, Journal of Climate, Vol. 20 (16).

Time Series Analysis of the Pressure of the Synoptic Pattern Centers ...




Investigation and Analysis of the Type and Time Length of Displacements at the Route

of Meandering Rivers and Their Role on Lateral Erosion in Semi –Arid Areas Case study: Garaagaj River

Dr. Maryam Bayati Khatibi Associate Professor of Geomorphology University of Tabriz

Introduction Meanders are of dynamic landscapes and important shapes affecting on the characteristics of flood plains, which are formed for different reasons and displaced under some conditions in various shapes. These geomorphologic and hydrological phenomenon are the most important factors of changing the flood plains and also are the main reason of increasing the entering sediments in to the rivers. By knowing this fact that the type of configuration at the rivers’ flow path especially the existence of meanders are not accidental at most of the times, therefore through the study of the configuration of the rivers’ path and recognition of the factors effective on changing their flow path, it is possible to recognize the dominant dynamism on the river’s flow in the time period of the study and also the manner and trend of changes’ occurrence in the current situation in the flood plains and manner of dominancy of possible conditions in the future . by the study of these phenomenon and referring to the existing heritages, which indicates the displacement of the rivers’ flow paths in the past, it is possible to comment on the manner of pervious changes and also about the features of the processes and the dominant dynamism on the rivers from the view point of erosion or sedimentation and settlement of deposits. Garaagaj is considered as the most meander rivers of Garangoo ( having geographical coordinates of 37 °00 ' to 37 20' of north latitude and from 46° 45 ' to 47 ° 15 ' of east longitude) . This river with having different meanders in its path and the changes has made in the path, has increased the sedimentation load of the river. regarded that a lot of dams and weirs have been established at the path of this river, the creation of meanders and consequently increase of the lateral erosion during the time, in addition to the entrance of lateral soils of large flood beds in to the river, the increase of resulting sediments has changed to a great and severe problem for the established dams at the route of these rivers. Research Methodology Areal photos have been used for the review and analysis of displacement rate of active channels in Garaagaj flood plain ,and the new and old routes have been fixed and traced from areal photos , the rate of displacements have been measured from the remaining lines and signs and the required

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calculations have been made by the resulting data. Sinuosity rate of Garaagaj river has been calculated by using (S=T/L) S relation. In this paper, for the review of displacements made in meander route and along Garaagaj River, firstly the radius of meanders’ arch and then the bed width has been calculated and then by the use of the resulting data of these measurements, the ratio of these two parameters (R/W) has been obtained. For estimating the required time for displacements in active channels, the relation of (∆t=Wcb/V) has been used. Discussion and Results The produced meanders at the path of Garaagaj River have various configuration and magnitude along different parts of the river. Review of the river meanders with S index shows that out of 25 parts of the under study, 8 parts are of sinuosity type and 17 parts are of meander type. Sinuosity rate of Garaagaj is more at the river outlet and at the end of the path, but sinuosity change is relatively low at the path length, in fact it can be said that more than 70% of the path along the under study parts are of meander type path and considering that each arch at meander path is considered as the exciter and displacement motor for the next arch and finally for displacement of the flow path, therefore increase of meander type parts of the path indicates the high potential of the flow path for more and faster displacement. The studies show that there exists a relationship between meander radius (R) and width (W), type and size of sedimentation load and also lateral erosion. When the rate of R/W reaches to maximum, flow turbulence also increases which leads to the increase of erosion power of the flow at meanders’ part. Review and study of the rates obtained from estimating the ratio of canal radius (R/W) with displacement rate of flow path in Garaagaj River and canal width specifies maximum amount of displacements happened in the past at the river path. Displacement of the path is together with creating cesspits and bank sides and as a whole erosion of the bed, so such phenomenon can be seen in the path of the said river. Studying the type of displacements in the path of different parts of Garaagaj river shows that different types of displacements have been happened at the river path .study of Garaagaj river bed shows that the required time for canal displacement at Garaagaj path is various in different parts. The lowest time for displacement of channel is 4 years and maximum time required for displacements is more than 17 years. This river at the areas near to confluence place of Garangoo changes its path rapidly and in a short time , but in middle parts, this time decreases and again at the ending part of path, the time of displacement will increase. Type of soil at flow bed and flood bed has a great effect on the severity and weakness of lateral erosion. When the soil shows sensitivity to the lateral erosion, the amount of material left in to the water will increase at the same rate and the width of flood bed will increase. Studying the soil type of surface formations of Garaagaj path shows that the type of formations at the under study area is sensitive to lateral erosion. Conclusion Meanders are the main causes of lateral erosion and are considered as the changing factor of flood plains. In semi arid areas that the flood plain banks do not protected by vegetation cover, the occurrence of such changes is great and lateral erosion has been intensified. On eastern slope of Sahand Mountain, as a semi arid area, the most typical meanders have been formed on the river path. One of these meander paths is Garaagaj Chai, which by creating various and different arches along its path has great displacements which has intensified the lateral erosion. With respect to the type of surface formations at the flow path of this river, frequent displacements at the flow arch and meeting the meander part of the flow with uncovered sides made the flood plain to become wider and middle bank sides at the flow path to be displaced rapidly.

Investigation and Analysis of the Type and Time Length of Displacements...


The results suggested that R/W on Graagaj River is not same in all parts of path, in some parts is high and in other parts is low .This range shows the change of type, features and displacement rate throughout river length. With respect to the results of performed studies, these changes can be related to the type of flow paths and the impact of tectonic factor. In the under study area, in parts meander and Sinuosity can be seen, except active tectonic, no other reason can be find for changing configuration of Garaagaj Chai river. In performing development operations in meander paths of semi arid areas , which lateral erosions resulting from displacements can produce major ad great problems, review and estimation of the required time for displacements has a great importance. The obtained results of the studies at Garaagaj Chai river flow path shows that the required time for displacement of channel at Garaagaj Chai river is various in different parts. Minimum time required for displacements is 4 years and maximum time is more than 17 years. It can be said that 4 years is a short time for displacements and the river at this time can make major changes in its middle and lateral part. Keywords:Meanders, movement of channel ,displacement time ,lateral erosion ,semi-arid ,Garaagaj, Refrences 1- Bayati, K. M (2006). Investigation on cause of genises and development of meander in vallyies

of mountaniousarea,Rooshde Geography, No,75. 2- Fagan,Simon D., Gerald C. Nanson (2004).The morphology and formation of floodplain-surface

channels, Cooper Creek, Australia.Geomorphology 60. 3- Fiedler, F (1999).Realization of Meander Permutations by Boundary Value Problems Bernold

journal of differential equations 156. 4- Formann, E , H. M. Habersack, St. Schober (2007). Morphodynamic river processes and

techniques for assessment of channel evolution in Alpine gravel bed rivers .Geomorphology 90. 5- Francesco, P. Di O. Golinelli, E. Guitter(2000).Meanders: exact asymptotics Nuclear Physics B

57. 6- Francesco, P. Di , E. Guitter , J.L. Jacobsen (2000). Exact meander asymptotics: a numerical

check.Nuclear Physics B 58. 7- Frings, Roy M (2008). Downstream fining in large sand-bed rivers .Earth-Science Reviews 87. 8- Gangodagamage,Chandana,Elizabeth Barnes, EfiFoufoula-Georgiou (2007). Scaling in river

corridor widths depicts organization in valley morphology .Geomorphology 91. 9- Hooke , J. M (2007).Complexity, self-organisation and variation in behaviour in meandering

rivers .Geomorphology 91. 10- Hooke, J.M (2008). Temporal variations in fluvial processes on an active meandering river over a

20-year period.Geomorphology.Vol.100. 11- HooseinAbadi ,M and ShafayeBajestan,M (2009). Investigation on imposible Water erosion in

Karron River meander.8thmanagement international conference, Ahvaz university. 12- Jaberzadehe, M.,Atari ,J.,Majdzadeh ,M.Abolgasemi,M (2008). Labratori study on edy flow and

the its role on curvature deposit.4thsevil management conference, Tehran university. 13- Knox , James C (2006).Floodplain sedimentation in the Upper Mississippi Valley: Natural versus

human accelerated Geomorphology 79.

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14- Kim, S.B., J. Watanabe , N. Nanato, S. Murase, O.B. Hyun (2006).Current density distributions of the meander type resistive fault current limiters Physica C 445–448,1069–1072.

15- Kemp, Justine(2004).Flood channel morphology of a quiet river, the Lachlan downstream from Cowra, southeastern Australia.Geomorphology 60.

16- Kiss, Tímea Kiss, KárolyFiala ,GyörgySipos(2008).Alterations of channel parameters in response to river regulation works since 1840 on the Lower Tisza River (Hungary).Geomorphology 98.

17- Lofthouse,Caroline, André Robert (2008). Riffle–pool sequences and meander morphology. Geomorphology 99.

18- Nohegar,A, Yamani, M (2005). Investigation on meander geomorphological situation and its role of bed and bank erosion in Minab, Geography research quarterly,No 51.

19- Mahmodi, A. Tahmasbi.,Garahmohamadloo, M., Jafari, S (2008). Investigation on morphological changing on Gorgan River, near Gonbad town.3th Water management conference.

20- Petts ,G., Foster, J (1985). Rivers and landscape .Arnold. 21- Rezai mogadam. M. Afzali, H., Heidarpor, M (2009). Investigation on Ahar meander at

AzomadVarzeganplain.Geography and environment planning, No 33. 22- Sasani,F.,Afzali,H.,Heidarpor, M (2005). Investigation on the role of lateral migration at

curvature length on gross grain material ,5th Iran Hydrolical conference. 23- Seminara, G (2008). River meandering: linear versus non linear models .Geophysical Research

Abstracts,Vol. 10, EGU2008-A-07448, 2008.SRef-ID: 1607-7962/gra/EGU2008. 24- Smith,Charles. E (1998). Modeling high sinuosity meanders in a small flume.Geomorphology 25. 25- Srivastavaa,Pradeep, ManeeshSharmab, Ashok K. -Sarma, J. N (2005). Fluvial process and

morphology of the Brahmaputra River in Assam,India.Geomorphology 70. 26- Zahedi, M., Bayati, K. M (2010)Hydrology ,Samt Publ.

Investigation and Analysis of the Type and Time Length of Displacements...




Climatic Design of Residential Building of Sabzevar with Emphasis on Building

Orientation and Depth of Canopy

Saeed HosseinAbadi Ph.D Student of Urban Planning Geography University of Tabriz

Dr. Hasan Lashkari Associate Professor of Geography University of Shahid Beheshti

Dr. Mohammad Salmani Moqadam Assistant Professor of Urban Planning Geography

Introduction Considering the impact of climatic and environmental factors in creation of residential spaces is not a new debate. From the beginning, human has tried to create a favorable living place based on the temperature and climatic conditions of his living area. Also in terms of scientific and technical point of view, the climatic design or compatible architecture with the climate has been developed as a scientific debate for many years.The discussion of climatic design has two important aspects, , creating better quality and thermal comfort in the buildings and saving fuel required for heating control of such building. Therefore , it is required to determine design regulations based on the climatic conditions o f that area. Considering the importance of the said subject, the goal of this article is to determine the proper direction and orientation of buildings and proper depth of the canopy for residential buildings of Sabzevar for achieving part of climatic design principles. Research Methodology The method used in this study is a combination of mathematical relations, models and bio - climatic indices. Firstly by using Givani building bio-climatic graph, the thermal requirements of the building, welfare borders , lack of requirement to sun and the priorities of climatic design for the under study city were determined. The data used for bio-climatic graph are the statistics related to climatic factors of medium, minimum and maximum temperature and medium, minimum and maximum relative humidity ( monthly) of a 51 years period ( 1954eo up to 2005), gathered from climatologic station of Sabzevar After determining the thermal needs and the need for directing or preventing the sun light penetration, the amount of received energy in vertical walls of the buildings were calculated by using computation methods. . Finally with respect to the angle and direction of the sun light in geographical latitude of the area, the most appropriate depth for canopy of the windows were also determined.

27

Discussion and Results Each place has his own special climatic conditions and hence first it is necessary to identify thermal needs of the spaces for determining the design criteria including building orientation and depth of the canopy. Thus in this paper, by transferring the climatic data of Sabzevar city on the building bio- climatic graph, its most important thermal needs and priorities were determined. The most important priorities obtained from the city's Bio -climatic graph, include the followings: 1) To protect the building against the sun, during warm seasons 2) Using solar energy for heating the building during cold seasons. 3) Using daily temperature fluctuations D) Decreasing the wind effects on building heat loss 4) protect of building against outside warm air. F) Provision of facilities for increasing humidity in the dry and hot seasons. This study tries to realize the Priorities of 1, 2 and 4 (above) by determining the appropriate orientation of the building and depth of canopy. The direction of the building is one of the most important factors in creating thermal comfort. In order to achieve climatic design goals, angle of the building place shall be determined with regard to the impacts of the two climatic factors of sunlight and wind direction. In fact, if proper angel of the building be determined exactly, the three goals listed above may be achievable. Of course, In addition of choosing the proper direction, appropriate depth of canopies shall be determined for the windows. Basically, building direction shall be so that it receives the highest energy in cold times and the lowest one in warm seasons. The difference amount of energy in cold and warm times can be used for determining the best direction (energy of cold time minus warm times). If the result of this subtraction is a large number, it represents a more suitable building direction.Accordingly165 degrees (15 degrees east) are best direction for building. In two sided buildings of the city, the best direction of the building settlement for receiving the solar energy is angle 15 degrees east. In this case, one of faces is placed at angle +165 degrees and the other will be placed at 15 degree. Also the north - south direction has the second rank in terms of level of importance. In the next step, for realization of another determined goal i.e. decreasing the effect of cold winter winds, the direction of winter winds was compared with the direction determined for sun light. The results of this study showed that the selected direction for sun radiation is appropriate also for wind. Conclusions In this study, determining the principles was considered for the design of residential buildings according to the environmental conditions. Therefore, firstly, the thermal and environment needs of buildings and the principles that should be considered in the design of buildings were determined. On this basis, items including directing solar energy during cold times, protecting buildings against the penetration of sunlight into the building in warm times and decreasing the effect of cold winds in loss of heat in buildings is one of the purposes and principles that should be considered in climatic design of buildings of Sabzevar. One of the solutions to achieve these goals is the proper orientation of building with respect to factors of wind , sun and determining proper depth of canopy. According to the recognized principles and priorities, main face or faces of building should be placed in the direction that receive less solar energy in warm times and more energy in cold times. Result of this

Climatic Design of Residential Building of Sabzevar with Emphasis on ...


calculation was that direction 15 and 30 degrees east in one sided buildings and angle 15 degree east and north - south direction is the best placement angles in two sided building. In the next step, for realization of another determined goal i.e. decreasing the effect of cold winter winds, the direction and angle of winter winds were compared with the direction determined for the sunshine. It concludes that the selected directions for sun are also suitable for wind. So that in case of choosing the said directions, winter winds will have less influence on the buildings. Determination of proper depth of the canopy was another issue that was discussed in the paper. In this regard, the depth of canopy shall be determined so that decreases the arrival of sun in warm times and doesn’t prevent its penetrating into the building in cold times. Calculations illustrated that if there is a window with 1 meter elevation, depth of canopy should be 0.26 meter in south direction. Canopy depth increases with the increase of window elevation. Keywords: residential building, direction of building, depth of canopy, climatic design, Sabzevar.

Refrences 1- Al-Temeemi, Abdul-Salam (1995).Climatic design techniques for reducing cooling energy

consumption in Kuwaiti houses. 2- Ali jani, B (1994). New approach in application of climatology in resource management and

development of Iran (the role of climate in housing design) Journal of Geographical Research, No. 35.

3- Amiri, A (2004). Thermal comfort in indoor spaces and the design climate of Qom, Nivar Issue, Number 55, 54.

4- Beyraq dar, MA (1988). architectural design of rural dwellings Khorasan, Iran Meteorological Organization.

5- Eley, Charles (1998). Passive solar design strategies :guidelines for home building, San Francisco, California, Passive solar Industries Council, National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

6- Fiocchi ,Carl, Simi Hoque,and MohammadShahadat (2011).Climate Responsive Design and the Milam Residence, Sustainability, 3.

7- Iran Meteorological Organization, data and statistics of meteorological station of Sabzevar for the period 1954 to 2005.

8- Iranmanesh, Nasim & Bigdeli, Elahe (2009). Climatic design & low carbon city regarding the traditional, experiences Climatic design & low carbon city ,45th ISOCARP Congress.

9- Kasmaei, M (1990). Architecture and Climate, Khuzestan - Khorramshahr, Housing and Building Research Center press, Ministry of Housing and Urban Development.

10- Kasmaei, M (1993). The guidance of the design of hot and dry climatic region of Semnan, publication, Housing and Building Research Center, Ministry of Housing and Urban Development.

11- Kasmaei, M (2004). Climate and Architecture, Tehran,Khak publications. 12- Kasmaei, M (2006).Climatic zoning and design of East Azarbayejan Province guidelines,

Ministry of Housing and Urban Development, Housing and Building Research Center Publications.

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13- Lashkari, Hassan and pur Khadem Namin, Z (2005). Optimization of the orientation of open spaces in the city of Ardabil on the basis of climate, Journal Geographical Research, No. 79.

14- Mahram, M (2005). Study and architectural design consistent with warm and dry climate (design of residential building in the city of Kashan), MS Thesis, Tarbiat Modarres University, Department of Architecture..

15- Mahmoudi Nejhad, H and Taqavaee, AA (2006). Solar Housing, requirement use of solar energy in housing design,concepts and qualitative evaluation, Payam e mohandes, No.34.

16- Mertens, Elke (1999). Bioclimate and city planning , open space planning, Atmospheric Environment 33.

17- Moshiri, Sh (2008). sustainable design on the basis of warm and dry climate, Journal of Urban Identity, Fall and Winter 3 (5).

18- Oke (1988). Street design and urban canopy layer climate, Energy and Buildings, Volume 11, Issue 1.

19- Pardaraz Consultants (2009). Development Plan (comprehensive) and the city of Sabzevar city sphere of influence, and recognition of the status quo, Volume I, July.

20- Pour Jaafar, M and Mahmoudi nejhad, H (2007). Effect of physical factors in reducing energy consumption of housing, commitment on climatic design with emphasis on cold regions of Iran, Journal of Rah va Sakhtemen, No. 42.

21- Roshan Zadeh, M (2006). Look at the climatic design of buildings, the Fifth Conference on Optimization of fuel consumption in buildings.

22- Saliqeh. M (2004). Accommodate housing for the city of Chabahar with climate modeling, Journal of Geography and Development, No. 4.

23- Shaqaqi, SH, Shemirani, M (2008). the relationship between sustainable development and design of buildings in cold and dry climate (Case Study of Tabriz), Science and Technology Environmental Biology, Fall 1387, No. 10.

24- Sheikholeslami,F and Thahbaz M (2006).the strategies of housing design consistent with the climate in Hamadan, the conference's top cities, top plan, the civil municipality of Hamadan.

25- Tavoosi, T; Ataie, H Kazemi, A (2008). Climate and architecture of new schools in Isfahan, Journal of Geography and Development, No. 11.

Climatic Design of Residential Building of Sabzevar with Emphasis on ...




Comparison of EPM, MPASIAC and PESIAC Models for Estimating Sediment and Erosion by

Using GIS (Case Study: Ghaleh-Ghaph Catchment, Golestan Province)

Dr. Reza Ghazavi Assistant Professor of Rangeland and Watershed Management University of Kashan

Dr. Abbasali Vali Assistant Professor of Rangeland and Watershed Management University of Kashan

Yaser Maghami M.Sc of Geomorphology University of Tehran

Jaleh Abdi M.Sc of Geomorphology University of Tehran

Siyamak Sharafi Ph.D Student of Geomorphology University of Tehran

Introduction Soil erosion is an important challenge in the recent century. Water resources pollution, decrease in water storage capacity of dams, and decrease in environmental potential are the results of erosion.EPM, MPSIAC and PSIAC are the general methods that used for erosion evaluation. These models need the exact information and their output depends on the number and correctness of this information. Lack of information is one of the most important problems for statistical analysis and studies of erosion and sedimentation. This problem is important especially in developing countries such as Iran. In the recent years, GIS with a large capacity, helps the researchers for classification, storage and update the important information as layers or tables and decreased the human errors. The main goal of this study is evaluating the sedimentation and erosion ability of a catchment via EPM, MPSIAC and PESIAC models using GIS. Research Methodology In this study, GIS and Rs were used for evaluation of sedimentation potential and erosion ability of a catchment via EPM, MPSIAC and PESIAC. The main factors important in erosion evaluation were estimated using all three models. Based on this information, erosion and sedimentation potential was evaluated for any sub-basin.

31

Discussion and Results The results of all three methods were generalized to all sub-basins and to the under study watershed. Based on the results, sub-basin number one, in view of qualitative erosion, is average based on EPM model, high based on MPSIAC model, and average in PSIAC model. Qualitative erosion was very low, high, and low in sub basin two, based on EPM, MPSIAC and PSIAC respectively. Qualitative soil erosion in studies watershed generally is evaluated extend, high, and moderate based on EPM, MPSIAC and PSIAC models respectively. Based on RMSE method, smallest values of RMSE indicate that model is better. Results shows that PSIAC model have smallest value compared to EPM and MPSIAC and so is the best model for soil erosion and sediment evaluation. Conclusion Water and soil resources management in each watershed need to a good recognition of its sediment delivery ratio. Study about soil degradation also need to exact basic information. With new models and exact systems and tools, researchers can save and evaluate this base information. The main goal of this study is evaluation of sedimentation and erosion ability of a catchment via EPM, MPSIAC and PESIAC models using GIS. For this study, equal parts maps were designed using land use, slope and geological maps. Soil erosion and sedimentation rate was calculated in each sub-basin by different models. Land-use maps was designed using ETM Land sat satellite images. Results of RMSE index showed that PSIAC method is more suitable method for sediment and erosion evaluation in this area. Refrences 1- Ahmadi H (2008). Applied Geomorphology. Tehran publication. 2- Borzo A, Momayezi M,Nikandish A (2008). Evaluation of EPM, MPASIAC and PESIAC

model for sediment and erosion estimation Fars province. Iranian journal of Agriculture knowledge.5.

3- Dadkhah M, Najafinejad A (1997). Evaluation of EPM model for erosion estimation in Letyan Dam watershed. Iranian journal of natural resources .5.

4- Gobin A, Govers G (2003). Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assesment. Third Annual report. Europian commission funded fifth framework project – contract QLK5-CT-I999-01323. Available at: ttp://www.pesera . JR C.it

5- H ill J (1993). Land Degradation and Soil Erosion Hazard Mapping in Mediterranean Environment With Operational Earth Observation Satellites. Proceedings of the international symposium of Operationalization of remote sensing, 9, 19-23 April, Enschede, The Netherlands.

6- Hudson,N.W (1987). Soil and Water Conservation, Semi arid and arid area. FAO, Soil Bulletins, No. 57.

7- Jalili k, Hadid M (2005). Quality and quantity evaluation of soil erosion and sedimentation by MPSIAC model using GIS. 3th conference of sedimentation and erosion.

8- Rangzan K, Moradzadeh M (2006). GIS and RS application for preparing information layers of land use and land cover for MPSIAC model. Sedimentation conference. Khozestan, Iran.

Comparison of EPM, MPASIAC and PESIAC Models for Estimating...


9- Rangzan K, Zarasvandi A, Haydari A (2008). Evaluation of EPM and MPASIAC model for sediment and erosion estimation using GIS and RS.(A case study: Pegah sorkh catchment, Khozestan Province.64.

10- Rastgo S, Ghahreman B, Sanieenejad H, Davoodi K, Khodashenas S (2007). Sediment and erosion evaluation of Tang konesht watershed via EPM and MPASIAC model using GIS. Journal of Science and Technology of Agriculture and Natural Resources. 7.

11- Refahi H (1996). Soil erosion and by water conservation. 12- Tajgardan T, Ayobi S, Shataiee S (2007). Sediment and erosion evaluation by MPSIAC model

using GIS and RS.( A case study: Ziyarat watershed). Journal of Pajohesh and Sazandegi.79. 13- Tangestani, M.H (2001). Integration Geographic Information System in Erosion and Sediment

Yield Application Using the Erosion Potential Methd of (EPM) Proceeding of the GIS Research UK.

14- Tangestani, M. H (2005). Comparison of EPM and PSIAC models in Gis for erosion and sediment yield assessment in a semi arid environment: Afzar catchment, Fars Province, Iran.

15- Ziai H (2002). Principales of engineering watershed management. 16- Ziaiesfandarani H (2009). GIS and RS application for sediment and erosion estimation of Shahid

Abbaspour dam watershed. MS thesis.Shahid Chamran University.

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Evaluation and Zoning of Severity and Danger of Desertification in the Some Parts of Sistan Plain and Hamoon Lake Bed Using IRIFR Model

Dr. Ahmad Pahlavanravi Assistant Professor of Geomorphology University of Zabol

Introduction According to Glantz,s theory, desertification term has about one hundred definitions(Glantz, 1977) . The common point in all these definitions is the severe demolition of the environment due to desertification..Some of these definitions are: ecosystem degradation (Reining, 1978), degradation of plant species (Le Houerou, 1975), decrease of ecosystem production and a decrease in biological production. Each of these definitions shows the ecosystem change from favorable conditions to unfavorable conditions and decrease of biological production. In the Environment and Development conference of the United Nations held in Riodojaniro in 1992, desertification was defined as: land degradation and demolition of dry , semi dry and dry semi humid areas as the result of human activities and climatic changes. At present desertification is a serious problem plagued many countries of the world. Considering and paying attention to desertification for a country like Iran which 80 million hectares of which is covered by dry and semi dry areas, is a necessary and inevitable issue.12 million hectares of this area is covered by running sands , 6 million of which is formed of active sand hills (Refahi , 2006) . Wind erosion due to wind blowing usually happens on bare areas with no surface vegetation cover. Wind is said to horizontal movements of the atmosphere. Wind is subject to pressure, therefore changes of pressure produces different winds in the atmosphere. At the low levels of the atmosphere, molecules are near to each other, the contacts are great and the pressure is high, therefore the wind blows in the direction which has the highest pressure (Moghimi 2006). Soil erosion is a phenomenon, in which soil is displaced due to environmental factors like water, wind, gravity force and so on and after carrying, is deposited in another area. The under study area is considered as one of the driest areas in the world and wind erosion is actively salient in this area and each year, makes a great deal of soil out of access. In the areas with no control on erosion, the soils are gradually eroded and lose their fertility. Erosion, not only weakens the soil and desolates the farms and makes great and irreparable damages, but also through sedimentation of materials in water ways, dam reservoirs, ports and decreasing their impounding capacity, makes Rstages. Such situation is visible in the study area which is a large part of Sistan plain and Hamoon Lake. Wind erosion is saliently active in this region. During wind erosion, the particles are moved by three methods of creeping, jumping and suspension. Particles mostly move by jumping movements. Diameters of jumping particles are usually between 0.05 up 0.5mm. Jumping movements of particles are usually happened at the limit of 0.1up to 0.15mm (Refahi 2006).increase of soil erosion, in addition to the soil features and nature depends greatly on the jumping particles. So that the particles which are moved by jumping method,


when contacting with the ground surface, move the resting particles of the ground surface. During this process, the particles which their threshold speed is more than the wind rate will move. Research Methodology In general, the effective factors on intensifying the wind erosion in the area under study can be divided in to two human and environmental factors. Environmental factors are mainly rooted in the structure of climatic changes, geology, pedology and geomorphology, and human factors (management) can be used for uncontrolled grazing of livestock, clearing plants, changing forest and pasture lands to agricultural lands and non controlled and inappropriate use of lands. Although for specifying the priorities , it is sometimes required to use the statistics and comparing the under study parameters in particular time periods , but until achieving this methods , it is possible to use the information, experiences and expressions of the people who have obtained during the long times of living in this area.With respect to the above said items, in this research for estimating the severity of desertification, IRIFR.E model, presented by the Iranian researches ( Ekhtesassi and Ahmadi) has been used. IRIFR model like PSIAC model, evaluates the role and effect of nine factors in wind erosion and the resulting sedimentation amount. A score is given to each factor depending on its severity and weakness and its effect on desertification. By adding up the above scores, degradation severity of geomorphologic facies, whish is the basis of studies for soil erosion, will be estimated. The following table shows the nine factors effective on intensifying the wind erosion(able 1-)

Table-1: Effective factors on soil erosion and sediment generation based on IRIFR model No. AEffective factors on soil erosion and sediment

generation based on IRIFR model Score

1 Litlogy 0-10 2 Geomorphology 0-10

3 Wind speed and condition 0-20 4 Soil and land cover -5-15 5 Vegetation cover density -5-15 6 Surface erosion effects 0-20 7 Soil moisture 0-10 8 Type and dispersion of wind sedimentations 0-10 9 Land use planning and management -5-15

Discussion and Results With respect to the field studies, the land use map was designed which includes nine facies as the following figure ( figure No. 10). Specifications of geomorphologic facies has been presented in the following table (table No. 12).

35

Fig-1: working units maps obtained from the study area using aerial photo processing, Topographic and geology maps and the visits.

Table-12 Units,types and Geomorphologic facies types were identified in the study area

Name and code of Geomorphologic

Unit

Name and code of Geomorphologic

type Name and code of Geomorphologic Facies Symbol

2Covered plain 3-2 Covered

plain 1-3-2 Obsolete undesirable agricultural lands R2.1 2-3-2 Bare land R2.2

3Playa

1-3 Clay plain

1-1-3 Salty and bloated land R3.2 2-1-3 dry earth crust without vegetation F1.1 3-1-3 dry earth crust with cane F1.2 4-1-3 Hard and dry earth crust with Tamarix tree F1.3

2-3 desert 1-2-3 Humid region L1.1 2-2-3 Kavir Lake L2.1 3-2-3 Lurg L3.1

In continue, after specifying the homogenous units (land use map), the considered factors in each unit has been evaluated based on the designed table and the results obtained from evaluation and scoring the under study indices in this study have been presented in the following table(table 13) . Finally with respect to the obtained results from pervious stages, the map for current condition of desertification is being obtained by using IRIFR model in the under study area and based on the following figure (figure No.2) Conclusion The results of this research indicate this fact that desertification has been occurred actively in the area and has an increasing trend and also show that the under study area is placed at desertification class of medium, severe and very severe and from all of the under study area, 26% equal 22791 hectares is placed in medium desertification class, 44.3% equal to 38832.6 hectares in severe desertification class and 29.7% equal to 26034.4 hectares in very severe desertification class . Regarding the obtained results from this research and performed visits of the area, it is possible to prevent the progress of

Evaluation and Zoning of Severity and Danger of Desertification in the ...


desertification process in the areas which are placed in low critical places through performing biological and mechanical plans, otherwise, due to special conditions dominant on the area, the condition of these areas becomes more critical and severe. The areas of severe class with an area of more than 38832.6 hectares, have dedicated itself most part of the area which includes humid area, Kavir lake , dry and hard earth crust without any vegetation cover together with cane. In case of lack of control, this phenomenon is transferred to other areas and makes the situation of the area more critical. After providing the land sensitivity to wind erosion map, each class limit in all the area is calculated by using digit system. The calculation and relative percentage of wind erosion classes in the study area has been presented in the following table.

Table 14. Percentage of the area related to each level of desertification class in the study area IRIFR score

Limit Condition Erosion Intensity classes

Region Area in Hectares Area Percentage

0-25 Non-sensitive I--25-50 few II--50-75 Medium III 22791 26

75-100 Severe IV38832.6 44.3 100< Very Severe V26034.4 29.7

Estimation of sediment yield resulting from wind erosion in the study area by using IRIFR model: To evaluate sediment yield potential of wind erosion in the study area by using IRIFR model, the relation presented between sedimentation degree and amount of sedimentation production as below, was used:

QS = 41[EXP (0.05R)] In which: Qs is annual sediment yield, tone per Square kilometer R is Sediment yield degree (using total score factors affecting wind erosion) For obtaining the R sedimentation degree, in each of geomorphologic facies and all of the study area from the total score, the effective factors on wind erosion is extracted and by using the above relation, the sedimentation potential resulting from wind erosion has been estimated. Results of evaluating sedimentation amount of the area has been presented in the following table.

Table No.15: results of evaluating sedimentation amount at the study area

Geomorphological Facies Sediment Degree

Specific sediment Ton/Km2/year

Specific sediment Ton/hec/year

R2.1 92.4 25.4161 41.6 R2.2 98.5 5645.26 56.5 R3.2 995788017 57.9 F1.1 105.6 8051.16 80.5 F1.2 74.5 1700.33 17F1.3 71.5 1463.47 14.6 L1.1 863021.7 30.2 L2.1 985505.9 55L3.1 99.1 5817.18 58.2

Average 91.62 4002.1 40

Keywords: Desertification, Wind erosion, IRIFR, Sistan plain.

37

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