space weather prediction center highlights...2015/04/14 · fy15: $10.1m fy16 (projection): $10.1m...
TRANSCRIPT
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National Weather Service
Space Weather Prediction Center Highlights
Space Weather Workshop 2015
Dr. Thomas Berger Director
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SWPC Organization
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SWPC Partnerships
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557th Weather Squadron
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NWS Reorganization • Effective 1-April-2015
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The Office of
Assistant Administrator AA
DAA
Office of Planning & Programming for Service
Delivery
Office of Dissemination
Office of Central Processing
Office of Observations
Office of Facilities
Office of Chief Operating Officer
National Centers for Environmental
Prediction National
Water Center
Office of The Chief of Staff*
International Affairs
Office of the Chief Learning Officer
CFO/CAO
Assistant CIO
Office of Organizational Excellence
Enterprise Risk Management and Internal Audit
Office
Regional Offices
Proposed HQ Office Field Office
Analyze, Forecast, and Support Office
Office of Science and Technology
Integration
Existing HQ Office
* Includes Office of Communications,
Congressional Affairs, and Equal Opportunity &
Diversity
Portfolio Management Focus
Driver of Process
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FY15: $10.1M FY16 (Projection): $10.1M + possible $2.5M PB plus up = $12.6M FY17: in process now
FY15 Breakdown
AFS STI Obs CP Diss Grand Total
Labor $1,760,099 $4,331,960 $6,092,059
Non Labor $1,389,369 $1,816,039 $400,000 $788,572 $51,342 $4,442,322
TOTALS $3,146,468 $6,147,999 $400,000 $788,572 $51,342 $10,534,381
SWPC Allocations SWPC Budget
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SWPC Customers
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Num
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Subscription Service began January 2005
Customer Growth SWPC Product Subscription Service
Customers Solar Cycle
Satellite companies Banking FEMA Academia FAA
Shipping Automobile industry
Communication companies Oil drilling Electric utilities
State Departments of Transportation
Precision agriculture Major Airlines Manned space
flight Surveying groups
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SWPC Space Weather Scales
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SWPC Geomagnetic Storm Forecasts
1. Geomagnetic Storm Watch Issued upon detection of Earth-directed CME and WSA-Enlil model run
• 1-3 day forecast
2. Geomagnetic Storm Warning Issued upon detection at the ACE (soon DSCOVR) spacecraft at the L1 Lagrange point
• 15-50 minutes before impacting Earth
3. Geomagnetic Storm Alert Issued when geomagnetic storm is detected on USGS magnetometers
• Current condition
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SWPC in the News • September 12th 2014 “Double CME” impact • G3 Geomagnetic storm
X1.6 Flare/CME 10-Sep-2014 following M4 flare/CME on 9-Sep-2014
9 Accuracy of forecast arrival time: <1.5 hr for both CMEs!
Solid: Forecast Dots: ACE da
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SWPC in the News • March 17th “St. Patrick’s Day” Geomagnetic Storm. • “Glancing blow” CME predicted with G1 magnitude. • Actual arrival 15 hours early. Magnitude G4! • ~75 min warning of G4 conditions (1216 UT warn, 1334 UT alert)
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New Observations: DSCOVR!
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Falcon 9 Launch, 11-Feb-2015 Courtesy of SpaceX
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New Observations: DSCOVR • In transit to L1: Lissajous orbit insertion ~June 7– 8. • All Space Weather instruments turned on and functional. • Transition to NOAA Operations: ~July 15.
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DSCOVR First Wind!
Interplanetary magnetic field angle (from magnetometer instrument)
Solar wind density (from Faraday Cup instrument)
Solar wind speed (from Faraday Cup instrument)
Solar wind temperature (from Faraday Cup instrument)
DSCOVR WIND
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New Observations: GOES-R • EXIS – X-ray and EUV sensor, expanded dynamic
range and flare location
• SEISS – significant increase in range of energetic particle measurements
• SUVI – new UV solar imager
• MAG – high sample rate magnetometer
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NOAA GOES-R Launching to Geosynch in early 2016!
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Future Observations • NOAA “Space Weather Follow-on” • Launch: ~2020 • Primary mission: operational (real-time) coronagraph at L1
to replace the SOHO/LASCO – 20 years old this year… • Mission studies currently being conducted.
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Compact Coronagraph Courtesy of NRL
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Future Products: ARMAS • Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety. • Joint Korea-US Collaboration
RRA/KSWC, SET, NOAA/SWPC, NASA/LaRC, NSF/NCAR
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SWPC Modeling Efforts
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Sun: WSA Operational
Solar Wind: Enlil Operational
Magnetosphere: U. Michigan SWMF Operational in 2016
Ionosphere: IPE Operational in 2017
Thermosphere: WAM Operational in 2017
Aurora: OVATION Operational
Ground: E-Field Operational in 2016
FY16 PBR: +$1.5M for SWPC R2O “Testbed” activities
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New Models: U. Mich. “Geospace” • Real-time operations on NWS supercomputer in 2016. • Working with U. Mich, NCEP/NCO, and NASA/CCMC. • Accurate “re-Forecast” of St. Patrick’s Day G4 storm!
2015-03-17 12:00:00 [29 minutes forecast lead time] SWMF calculated regional K
(60 degrees Magnetic latitude)
K = 8, 9 K = 7 K = 5, 6 17
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New Models: WAM/IDEA
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• Operational Global Forecasting System (GFS) model extended to 600 km (WAM) + Ionospheric Model (IPE)
• Joint SWPC, UC/CIRES, NCEP/EMC, NOAA/OAR. • Ionospheric forecast products in 2017.
Thermosphere
Mesosphere
Operational GFS 0 – 60 km
WAM Neutral Atmosphere
0 – 600 km
IPE Ionsopheric
Electrodynamics
Stratosphere
Troposphere
2015 2017—2019
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50 years of space weather forecasts from Boulder! WELCOME!