Space Weather Forecast Models from theCenter for Integrated Space Weather Modeling

The Solar Wind Forecast Model

Carrington Rotation 1896 Carrington Rotation 2000

Product: Heliospheric Tomography

Probabilistic Geo-EffectivenessObserved climatology

300400500600700

Vel

(km

/s)

0

20

40

Den

(#/

cc)

05

1015

Bto

t (n

T)

-4-202

VB

z

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 40204060

Epoch (days)

3-hr

ap

0 20 40 60 80 10010

-3

10-2

10-1

100

3-hr ap (nT)

Pro

ba

bili

ty a

p>

ab

ciss

a

Probability That ap Will Exceed a Given Value

Days Relative to Interface

-3 to -1-1 to +1lowVhighV

Global Ambient Solar Wind: • erupted magnetic flux distribution• outward pressure due to hot corona• extended heating for fast wind• rotational interactions• commencing in SEC development environment in Spring 2007

Importance for Space Wx Forecasting: • constitutes most of the solar wind• recurrent activity• path for CMEs, SEPs and Cosmic Radiation• carries “killer” electrons• onset, duration, and magnitude of “high speed stream” events• coupling with geospace models

The GeospaceForecast Model

Verification of Daily Solar Wind Model

CISMModel

Development

Val

idat

ion

Broad Scientific Usage, CCMC

Feedback

SE

C i

den

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es m

od

els

wit

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ote

nti

al v

alu

e

CISM Modelon SEC

developmentcomputer

SE

C e

valu

ates

op

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ion

al v

alu

e

Mo

del

in

Tes

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Mo

del

in

Op

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CISM: 100% 70% 1% 0% SEC: 0% 30% 99% 100%

Implementation Effort:

V report PDR CDRs PRR

CISM Science to SEC OperationsModel Transition Process

The Planetary Equivalent Amplitude Forecast Model

1-7 Day Ap Time Series Prediction: • index constructed from North American ground- based magnetometers (same as USAF)• persistent, trend, recurrent features of observed Ap• “exogeneous” solar wind speed input (from ACE) • based on McPherron (1990) linear filter scheme• continuously running in SEC development environment since May 2004

Importance for Space Wx Forecasting: • “end-of-day” summary of geomagnetic activity• alerts for geomagnetic activity watch levels• automated way of obtaining a forecast• quick outlook of anticipated geomagnetic activity• driver for other empirical methods (Kp, MSIS90)

3-24 Hour ap Time Series Prediction:• running index constructed as daily index but from 3-hour averages• persistence of latest ap measurement combined with “exogeneous” solar wind speed input (ACE)• continuously running in SEC development environment since October 2006

Importance for Space Wx Forecasting: • short term outlook of effects due to quick changes in solar wind conditions• better 1-day forecast for Ap• probabilistic forecast of Ap/ap warning level crossings

Legend to Ap/ap forecast products: blue bars: daily measured values black bars: 1-day predicted values grey stripe: 27-days of solar rotation colored lines: watch/warning levels Validation of Daily Ap

Daily Ap

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1 day Time Intervals

PE

USAF

Autoregression

AR (70yrs)

Global Prediction Efficiencies (PE) for Daily Ap

Probabilities of Warning Thresholds for given predicted ap

Probabilistic Warning Levels

Products: Daily, 3-Hr, 24-Hr Indices

Global Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere:

• physics-based simulations of Earth’s space environment with coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere model• commencing in SEC development environment in Winter 2007/2008

Importance for Space Wx Forecasting: • specification of geomagnetic disturbance and characterization of the electro-jet• electron content of ionosphere• description of the neutral atmosphere density and wind• identification of magnetopause location• predictions and alerts for utility companies, telecommunications, and satellite operators

Legend to SW forecast product: blue bars: daily measured values black bars: 8-hour predicted values colored lines: watch/warning levels

Product: Solar Wind Parameters at L1