sovereign participation in the international bond market: the ghana case

25
1 Sovereign Participation Sovereign Participation in the International in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Bond Market: The Ghana Case Case Sam Mensah Sam Mensah Technical Advisor Technical Advisor Ministry of Finance & Economic Planning Ministry of Finance & Economic Planning Ghana Ghana Annual Conference of ASEA Annual Conference of ASEA October 30, 2007 October 30, 2007

Upload: reeves

Post on 02-Feb-2016

26 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case. Sam Mensah Technical Advisor Ministry of Finance & Economic Planning Ghana Annual Conference of ASEA October 30, 2007. OUTLINE. BORROWING STRATEGY. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

1

Sovereign Participation in Sovereign Participation in the International Bond the International Bond

Market: The Ghana CaseMarket: The Ghana CaseSam MensahSam Mensah

Technical AdvisorTechnical AdvisorMinistry of Finance & Economic PlanningMinistry of Finance & Economic Planning

GhanaGhanaAnnual Conference of ASEAAnnual Conference of ASEA

October 30, 2007October 30, 2007

Page 2: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

2

OUTLINE

Why Ghana wanted to issue bonds on the international capital market

Which factors helped Ghana to tap international market

How Ghana managed a successful Issue

BORROWING STRATEGY

BORROWING STRATEGY

GHANA’S STRENGTHS

GHANA’S STRENGTHS

SUCCESSFUL ISSUING

STRATEGY

SUCCESSFUL ISSUING

STRATEGY

Page 3: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

3

Why Eurobond?

Historical over reliance on concessional debt from multilateral sources especially IMF, World Bank

Concessional Debt Long gestation period – conception to disbursement can take up

to 3 Years; delays can be very costly in economic terms Amounts too small to meet infrastructure requirements for

accelerated growth Conditionalities may not be consistent with national priorities High transaction cost – appraisal, review missions, monitoring

and evaluation tie up significant national resources But terms are generous Need to diversify funding sources to mitigate disadvantages of

concessional debt

Page 4: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

4

Ghana’s Strengths

Reforms undertaken since 2000 have transformed Ghana’s economic condition and prospects

Stable political conditions needed for reforms to succeed

Support from Ghana’s international partners have reinforced the positive steps taken at home

Macroeconomic and social indicators are pointing in a positive direction

Vulnerabilities remain but the strategy is in place and the foundation has been laid for Ghana’s ascent to middle income status by 2015

Page 5: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

5

Ghana's Debt Dynamics

TOTAL PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 30-Jun-07(US$ millions)

Domestic Debt 1,656.27 1,539.78 1,867.53 1,997.35 3,133.31 3,754.63 External Debt 6,491.31 8,023.67 6,777.89 6,887.80 2,782.24 2,664.99 Total Public Debt 8,147.58 9,563.45 8,645.42 8,885.15 5,915.55 6,419.62

Page 6: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

6

Improved external accounts

18

External debt service chart

Forex Rate vrs USD

-

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

% C

han

ge

Page 7: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

7

Comparable Rated Sovereign Peer Group (2006)

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Ghana (B+/ - /B+) Kenya (B+/ - / - ) Ukraine (BB-/B1/BB-) Vietnam (BB/Baa3/BB-) Jamaica (B/B1/B+)

Real GDP Growth % General Govt Debt % of GDP Current Account Balance % of GDP Gross External Debt % GDP

Ghana performs well against its rated sovereign peers

5

Debt Management Comparables

Source: Fitch and EIU Reports

Page 8: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

8

Successful issuing strategy for a debut issue

Elements of successful issuing strategy Political will at the highest levels Competent transaction team Structuring the Offering Telling the Ghana Credit Story

Page 9: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

9

Transaction Team Lead Managers

Citigroup, UBS Co-managers (all Ghanaian)

Databank, EDC Stockbrokers, New world Investments Issuers Counsel

International: DentonWildeSapte (Lead); Cravath, Swaine & Moore (U.S, Law)

Local: ILC Lead Managers Counsel

International: Clifford Chance Local: JLD & MB

7-member MOFEP/BoG Support Team

Page 10: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

10

Timeline /MilestonesJul 2006 – Jan 2007

Discussions with investment bankers and receipts of Expressions of Interest – EOI visits from 13 Investment Banks

Feb 6 Cabinet approval to proceed given Feb-Jun 2007 RFP process; selection of Lead

Managers, Co-managers international and local counsel; mandates negotiated and signed

July 9 Kick-Off meeting in Accra July 9 -11 Due Diligence Meetings July 20 Fiscal Agent Appointed July 30 Parliamentary approval for

transaction Aug 15 Draft Preliminary Prospectus to UK

Listing Authority Sept 3-14 Road show materials finalized

All agreements, legal documentation finalized

Deal Announced

Sept 17-28 Road show, book building, pricing Oct 1-5 Closing and settlement

Page 11: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

Transaction Highlights

Transaction SummaryFinal Terms: New Issue

Issuer: THE REPUBLIC OF GHANA

Ratings: B+ stable (S&P), B+ positive (Fitch)

Format: Reg S/ 144A

Amount: US$750 million

Coupon: 8.50%

Issue Price: 100%

Pricing: Mid-swaps + 325 bps

Maturity: October 4, 2017

Settlement: October 4, 2007

Benchmark reference: UST 4.75% Aug 2017

Spread to benchmark: 387 bps

Listing: London Stock Exchange

Joint Bookrunners: CITI, UBS

Co-Managers: EDC Bank, Databank, New World (Ghana)

– On September 27th 2007, the Republic of Ghana issued

its debut US$750 million 10-year Reg S/ Rule144A

bond. This transaction was priced following a 6-day

investor roadshow in the US (New-Port Beach/LA, NYC

and Boston) and Europe (London, Frankfurt/ Munich

and Zurich).

– The orderbook grew in excess of US$3 billion, this

was over 4 times subscribed with 158 orders from

investors globally.

– The sovereign issuer was able to achieve the maximum

size of US$750 million that it required at the tight end of

the initial guidance of 8.50% to 8.75% thanks to a high

quality and well-diversified order-book.

On the 27th of September 2007, Citi (and UBS as joint bookrunners) priced the landmark US$750 million 10-year inaugural international bond issue for the Republic of Ghana, despite very volatile prevailing market conditions. The transaction generated in excess of US$3 billion in global demand with 158 investors participating in the orderbook.

1

Page 12: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

Bookbuilding Evolution

The international marketing effort through the US and European roadshow paid off, evidenced by the the diversity of the orderbook and the high quality of the accounts.

Marketing the Transaction

Sept 17 Announcement

Sept 19 Wed Newport Beach/ LA

Sept 20 Thur NY

Sept 21 Fri Boston (Global Conference Call)

Sept 24 Mon London

Sept 25 Tue Frankfurt/ Munich

Sept 26 Wed Zurich

Sept 27 Pricing

Timeline

Key Selling Points Bloomberg Presentation Offering Circular Sales Force Memo

Roadshow schedule

2

Page 13: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

Book Building Process

In spite of the market volatility and heightened risk aversion sentiment, Ghana was able to achieve more than 4 times subscription, with investors eager to take part in a transaction by a rare Sovereign Issuer.

3

> US$50m11%

US$10m-US$50m42% US$3m-<US$10m

26%

< US$3m21%

Order Book Analysis

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Sept 14th Sept 19th Sept 26th 8:30 AM

Sept 26th 3:30 PM

Sept 27th 2:00 PM

Ord

ers

US

$ (

mill

ion

)

Books Open

Deal Announced

Books ClosedTotal Orders:

158

Transaction Priced:

Mid-swaps + 325 bps

Roadshow Commences

$3.3bn

$750m

Initial Guidance Set

Orders Size

Page 14: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

Investor Distribution

Hedge Funds22%

Banks & Trusts17%

Private Banks/ Insurance Companies/

Pension Funds7%

Investment / Asset Manager

54%

Orders by Investor Type

Allocations by Investor Type

Investment / Asset Manager

65%

Private Banks/ Insurance Companies/

Pension Funds9%

Hedge Funds17%

Banks & Trusts9%

Orders Geographic Distribution

Allocations Geographic Distribution

Europe23%

UK31%

USA45%

Asia1%

Europe29%

UK28%

USA42%

Asia1%

158 accounts participated in the deal with the majority of the issue sold into the US and Europe. The final order book was above US$3 billion with investment/ asset managers representing 65% of the investors along with a significant participation by hedge funds.

4

Page 15: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

Press Coverage: The Republic of Ghana

The Republic of Ghana on Thursday became the first west African sovereign state to enter the international bond markets, selling a benchmark issue to raise $750m.

The deal met almost $3bn of demand and could, bankers say, be the first of a number from African countries that have benefited from debt relief.

The sale underscores a continuing robust appetite among some investors for high-yielding assets, particularly in emerging markets - in spite of the turmoil that has affected sentiment in the wider financial markets.

The 10-year bond was sold at par to yield 8.5 per cent, at the tight end of initial price guidance, according to Citigroup and UBS, which managed the deal.

Ghana makes international bond debut

Bankers said the bonds went to a wide range of investors, with about 40 per cent going to the US, 36 per cent to the UK and the rest to Europe.

"We have been preparing for this day for the past two years, and the process has been hard work," said Kwadwo Baah-Wiredu, Ghana's minister of finance and economic planning. "We have repositioned Ghana from being a very highly indebted country to one with a healthy, expanding economy.

"We are the first African country other than Egypt, Morocco and South Africa, which has made it on to the international market."

The minister said the proceeds of the bond would be used to improve Ghana's infrastructure, including the building of roads and the energy sector.

"Ghana has emerged as a trend setter in sub-Saharan Africa, having entrenched political stability and put in place macroeconomic policies that have secured it extensive external debt relief under a series of international creditor-driven initiatives," Paul Rawkins, senior director in Fitch's Sovereign rating team in London, recently said.

A number of other African governments including Nigeria, Kenya and Zambia are considering issuing sovereign debt on the international bond markets.

Ghana is rated B+, in the speculative grade category, by Standard & Poor's and Fitch.

Published September 27, 2007

By Joanna Chung

5

Page 16: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

Press Coverage: The Republic of Ghana (cont’d)

Ghana sold a $750 million Eurobond Thursday, with order books testifying to abundant appetite for the debut bond from the West African country and possibly for future issues from the continent.

The 10-year dollar bond was sold at par to yield 8.5 percent, the tight end of the guidance given on Wednesday, lead managers Citi and UBS said. The book size was almost $3 billion with about 40 percent placed to U.S. investors, 36 percent with UK investors and the rest in Europe, officials with the banks said. About 158 accounts bought into the deal, they added.

"We are very happy. This is the first African country other than Egypt, Morocco and South Africa, which has made it on to the international market," Ghana's finance minister Kwadwo Baah-Wiredu, in London for the bond sale, told Reuters.

"We had investors from all over the world and it shows Ghana's story is good. I hope other African countries will be able to succeed as well,"

Ghana sees huge demand for debut 10-yr Eurobondhe added. The minister said the proceeds of the bond would be used to improve Ghana's infrastructure and pledged to continue with reforms that have helped speed up economic growth.

Ghana is rated 'B+' by Standard & Poor's and Fitch, a distinctly speculative grade.

The Ghana deal is also significant in that it marks the first foray into global bond markets for a country that had its debts written off as part of a historic 2005 $40 billion debt relief effort for Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC).

"This is the first instance when a country post-HIPC is tapping international capital and we expect it to be the first of many bond issues from African countries," said Razia Khan, economist at Standard Chartered Bank in London.

Ghana's success comes a day after Turkey sold $1.25 billion in 2018 Eurobonds, which were three times oversubscribed.

The two deals how that in spite of the global liquidity squeeze that is forcing central banks to pump in billions of dollars into money markets and make emergency loans to banks, there is cash on hand to invest in high-yield assets.

"There is appetite for sovereigns," said Kaushik Rudra, emerging debt strategist at Lehman Brothers. "People are differentiating between corporates and sovereigns and have more confidence in the sovereign outlook than the corporate outlook.“

Analysts say the order book testifies not only to the attractiveness of the 8.5 percent yield but also to growing confidence in Ghana's economy, which the finance minister said would grow at 6.5 percent this year despite floods and drought.

A recent oil discovery may help consolidate growth. World prices for cocoa and gold, its other main exports, are high.

"The economy stands out because of the speed of

economic transition... it has successfully reduced the size of the fiscal deficit and it has the benefits of political stability in its favour despite being in a difficult neighbourhood," Khan added.

Stuart Culverhouse, head of research at Exotix, a subsidiary of ICAP, said dollar debt of the kind issued by Ghana and Turkey was in short supply and an 8.5 percent yield was attractive.

"I'm not surprised it was oversubscribed so heavily," he said. "A new issue from Africa will get into benchmark indices and people will be buying it for tracking purposes as well."

Meanwhile, Ghana's cocoa board raised a $900 million trade finance facility, the largest structured soft commodity syndicated deal in Africa, the organisers of the loan said.

Published September 27

By Sujata Rao

6

Page 17: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

Press Coverage: The Republic of Ghana (cont’d)

Ghana's finance minister Kwadwo Baah-Wiredu said on Thursday that his country's 6.5 percent economic growth target was achieveable despite recent floods in the West African country.

"Earlier we had drought, now rains have come and we have floods but we are seeing it as an opportunity and a challenge. Agriculture may be affected but 6.5 percent growth will be achievable as we have done a lot on the industrial side and mining and construction are also doing well," he told Reuters.

The minister was speaking after Ghana successfully issued a debut Eurobond for $750 million that was almost four times oversubscribed.

"We are very happy. This is the first African country other than Egypt, Morocco and South Africa which has made it on to the international market and it shows the Ghana story is good," Baah-Wiredu said. "I hope other African countries will be able to succeed as well."

Baah-Wiredu said a recent oil find in Ghana by Tullow Oil contained at least 1.3 billion barrels and likely more. He said it was in excess of the original estimate of 900 million barrels.

"The prospectus indicated 1.3 billion barrels and we hope it could be more. It is at least 1.3 billion barrels," he said.

Central bank governor Paul Acquah said he was sticking with his inflation target of 7 to 9 percent by end-December 2007.

Analysts have been sceptical about this level citing the floods in northern Ghana, the country's bread basket.

"The inflation target is in the 9 percent to 7 percent range. It's coming down rapidly. Currently our rate is 10.4 percent," the governor said. "Our target for end-December is (7-9 percent). We are an inflation-targeting central bank and we we are working seriously to achieve this.“

Published September 27, 2007

by Sujata Rao

Ghana's 6.5 percent 2007 growth target achievable

7

Page 18: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

Press Coverage: The Republic of Ghana (cont’d)

8

The Republic of Ghana attracted substantial interest from a wide investor base for its debut bond issue, said lead managers Thursday.

Furthermore, Ghana is the first post-HIPC (Heavily Indebted Poor Countries) debt relief country to successfully tap the international capital markets.

The sovereign issuer attracted over $3 billion orders received from 158 investors and sold a larger-than-expected $750 million 10-year Eurobond via joint bookrunners Citi and UBS.

The issue was priced at par to yield 8.5% which equates to 387 basis points over Treasurys. Pricing was at the tight end of initial yield guidance in the 8.5%-8.75% area.

"Ghana has emerged as a trend-setter in sub-Saharan Africa, having entrenched political stability and put in place macroeconomic

policies that have secured extensive external debt relief under a series of international creditor-driven initiatives," said Paul Rawkins, a senior director in Fitch's Sovereign rating team in London.

The Ghanaian Finance and Economic Planning Minister Kwadwo Baah-Wiredu told Dow Jones Newswires in May that the proceeds from the debut issue of bonds on international capital markets will be used to help upgrade the country's fraying infrastructure.

Kwadwo Baah-Wiredu said although Ghana had received funds from organizations such as the African Development Bank over many years, that had been "piecemeal," and the country required more cash to improve its infrastructure.

Standard & Poor's Corp. and Fitch Ratings assigned Ghana's debut notes a B+ rating.

"Its very positive to see high demand for that type of credit," said Luis Costa, an emerging markets debt strategist at ING.

Ghana was the third emerging market sovereign to tap international capital markets this week, behind Mexico and Turkey.

Mexico became the first emerging market sovereign to return to overseas bond markets, since the summer credit crisis and global market sell-off. The sovereign raised $1 billion in a re-opening of its 2017 and 2034 overseas global bonds. Although the deal was four times oversubscribed, the country had to pay out much higher yields in comparison to the bonds' Friday closing levels.

Meanwhile, Turkey raised $1.25 billion from the sale of bonds maturing in 2018.

Unlike Mexico, "Turkey priced with virtually no premium - very close in yields to the 2020's" ING's Costa said.

“The bond was three-times oversubscribed - they had no problem getting the deal away," Costa added.

The bonds priced to yield 6.85%, which is just below the 6.888% yield on Turkey's last Eurobond issuance in February, when the country re-tapped its 2020 series to sell $750 million.

As emerging market sovereigns have started to return to capital markets, it will only be a matter a time before quasi-sovereigns also come back, says Costa, referring to Russia's Gazprom and Rosneft.

Published September 27, 2007

By Clare Connaghan,

Ghana Attracts Substantial Demand For Debut Bond Offering

Page 19: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

Press Coverage: The Republic of Ghana (cont’d)

Ghana was welcomed by international debt investors yesterday (Thursday) when it priced the first offshore bond issue by a sub-Saharan African government for almost 30 years.

The $750m 10 year deal, led by Citigroup and UBS, attracted more than $3bn of orders from 158 accounts across the globe.

The issue came as Ghana celebrates its 50th year of independence. It was the second issue from an Old World emerging market issuer since the recent market volatility, and followed a successful $2bn five year bond by India’s ICICI Bank and a $1.25bn 10 year issue by Turkey on Wednesday.

The strength of demand for these transactions encouraged emerging market debt specialists to believe stability was returning to the market.

"Having seen two successful deals [in EMEA] this week, we expect to see more sovereign issuance — from Gabon, for example," said one syndicate banker in London. "Then the quasi-sovereigns should come to the market, which should pave the way for financials and corporates."

Suggestions that a $750m deal would be too big for B+/B+ rated Ghana and hurt the market proved unfounded. Priced at par, the bonds traded up to 101.50/102.00.

"We are very pleased with the outcome of the deal, but not surprised it went so well, given that we started working on it in 2005," said Kwadwo Baah-Wiredu, minister of finance and economic planning in Accra. "It was well prepared and represents the international efforts made by Ghana over the years."

Ghana thrills with $750m bond blowoutGhana has implemented stringent economic reforms in recent times, driving inflation down from 41% in 2001 to 10.4% in August 2007.

Its GDP has grown strongly and Ghana

has also benefited from debt relief agreements in 2001, 2002 and 2004 under the Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) programme. It received multilateral debt relief under last year’s G8 initiative.

Ghana has implemented stringent economic reforms in recent times, “Our story has been very positive and this positive evolution is the result of a lot of discipline," said Baah-Wiredu. "As we seek to continue on the growth path,

Momentum built quickly, driving the pricing to the tight end of guidance, although some market participants though that this was still on the generous side.

"Right timing, right credit but questionable pricing as the deal has traded 30bp tighter,” one said. “It was too cheap by some margin. The leads obviously didn’t exert any pressure on investors to get a better level, but then leverage is with investors at the moment

there are a number of reforms that we want to undertake, including a major overhaul of the country’s energy and road infrastructure. We had the approval from the parliament for an issue of up to $750m to fund these projects.“

The transaction followed an intensive roadshow where the issuer visited investors in the US and Europe. These visits helped to establish the main areas of concern although reconciling the investors’ feedback was no easy task.

"There was a wide range of opinions on where value was on the deal," said an official at Citigroup. "While there was a consensus on the tenor accounts like, we had to bridge the gap between the variety of opinions as far as pricing was concerned. Some accounts thought there was value through 8%; others were at a much wider end. The guidance of 8.5% to 8.75% tried to encompass this feedback and bridge this gap between accounts."

and I think the leads played to that. I was expecting a spread in the mid-200s and they came at 387bp, so this was generous indeed."

The leads defended the pricing. "Given the deal’s significant size, we felt that a print at 8.5% would give investors the performance they were after," an official at UBS said. "We did not want to do a deal at 8.25% that would then go on to trade weakly in the market. While a smaller deal was available at a tighter print, this was not what the issuer wanted to achieve."

Leads feel their way

Pricing was also made difficult by the lack of comparables. From Europe, the Middle East and Africa’s emerging markets, only Turkey had priced a deal since the summer’s credit turmoil, and Turkey is an extremely regular and familiar issuer.

Since Ghana is single-B, sovereigns such as Pakistan, Ecuador, Argentina and Jamaica were considered as benchmarks, but dismissed, because of the specificity of each of those credits and the wide ranges in which they trade. Investors’ feedback was the main point of reference.

Some accounts that participated in the deal had already invested in Africa through local currency bonds and were therefore more familiar and bullish about the credit. Several Nigerian banks have also issued Eurobonds this year.

Continental European investors bought 29% of Ghana’s bonds, UK accounts 28%, US buyers 42% and Asians 1%. Asset managers took 65% and hedge funds 17%, leaving 18% for banks, insurance companies and pension funds.

"The proceeds of this deal supplement our domestic resources which finance these projects in Ghana," said Paul Acquah, governor of the Bank of Ghana.

"We wanted to make sure that the borrowing was consistent with our objectives. Debt sustainability was at the core of going forward with this deal. It is important to bear in mind how Ghana has been through an energy crisis, how energy has been rationed and generating issues. The cost of fixing these issues is very high but we had to make sure that we used the proceeds in a prudent way.“

Published September 28, 2007

By Hélène Durand

9

Page 20: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

Press Coverage: The Republic of Ghana (cont’d)

The Republic of Ghana (NR/B+/B+) secured an outstanding book of US$3.25bn for last Thursday’s debut US$750m 10-year Reg S 144a Eurobond, demonstrating the pent-up appetite for sovereign supply from the region. Citi and UBS were joint bookrunners for the land-mark issue, which was priced at par at the tight end of 8.5–8.75% guidance, equivalent to 387bp over Treasuries, before rallying on the break.

Jonathan Brown, managing director and co-head of European syndicate at UBS, said guidance for the first sub-Saharan sovereign Eurobond outside South Africa in 30 years was done in something of a vacuum owing to the lack of an obvious comparable, as US investors looked to Argentina and Venezuela, while Europeans focused on Indonesia and Pakistan – “none of which really fitted the bill”, according to Brown.

“Ghana could probably have done US$300m at tighter pricing but the issuer needed to do a bigger deal that attracted global demand. Their priority was achieved by getting a size-able deal done at a reasonable price that traded well in the secondary,” he added.

Some would say the secondary performance was too good, as the bond traded as high as 102-1/4 for a 45bp tightening against Treasuries before settling back to 101-3/4–102-1/4 by late Friday, or 368bp over 10-year US debt.

An origination manager away from the deal was impressed by its timing, but criticised final pricing. “The leads were not as aggressive as they could have been, as a two-point rally for a 10-year suggests another 1/8 or 1/4 point was clearly achievable,” he said.

Brown argued that 8.25% or 8.375% in the primary state was not practical if the deal was to gain momentum.

“The issue needs to be protected against potential volatility over the next week or so. Where the deal trades in a fortnight will represent a better gauge of how it has done,” he said.

Ghana’s Finance Minister, Kwadwo BaahWiredu, was very pleased with the result and reiterated that the money raised would be used to tackle energy bottlenecks that have blighted the economy in recent years as well as to improve transport infrastructure.

Maryam Khosrowshahi, managing director of DCM at Citi, pointed out that such spending has a higher economic return than typical World Bank and ADB loan-funded projects, which are smaller, take longer to arrange and tend to focus on social areas such as education and health.

Stuart Culverhouse, chief economist at Exotix, noted that the US$750m issue was certainly on the higher side of initial expectations, saying: “This represents a sizeable amount that underlines the need for Ghana to continue with its economic improvements and debt management reforms in order to make that level of borrowing sustainable.”

Khosrowshahi described the transaction as a “tremendous success that opens the door for other African issues”, while Culverhouse sees the deal as a significant development “that shows countries which follow the right policies do not have to be cut off from the international markets.”

As far as future issuance is concerned. Baah-Wiredu stressed that Ghana would keep its options open while staying within prudent guidelines to maintain the country’s debt sustainability. He also suggested that the sovereign bond had “opened the gates through which Ghanaian corporates will follow.”

The scale of the demand should certainly encourage other African issuers to come to the market. Elsewhere in the sovereign space, Gabon is expected to launch in November having mandated Citi and JPMorgan, while Zambia, Tanzania and Kenya are potential visitors, along with some Nigerian banks, most probably in 2008.

Published September 29, 2007

Africa is openEuropean and US dedicated EM accounts lapped up Ghana’s debut Eurobond last week in a deal that bodes well for future sub-Saharan sovereign issuance. Disappointed investors helped propel the bond sharply higher in the secondary market as the Republic established a liquid benchmark for the next EM frontier. John Weavers reports.

10

Page 21: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

Secondary Activity on Ghana 8.5% October 2017

October 2007

The Republic of Ghana

Strictly Private and Confidential

Page 22: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

Trading History: Bid/Offer Price

Market Commentary– The transaction was followed by a strong secondary market performance as investors were keen to buy the Ghana paper.

– The bid price has been stable considering this is the debut transaction for Ghana.

– The bond price increased to102 in the course of 6 days and has stabilized around the 102 region.

– The bid/offer spread was tightest at issue because of the high liquidity. The spread now is around 50 cents and would be

expected to remain around this area. 1

Week 0

24/09 – 29/09

Week 1

01/10 – 05/10

Week 2

08/10 – 12/10

Week 3

15/10 – till date

Re-offer Price

99.0

99.5

100.0

100.5

101.0

101.5

102.0

102.5

103.0

9/24/2007 9/30/2007 10/6/2007 10/12/2007

Bid

Pri

ceBid Price Offer Price

Page 23: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

Trading History: Yield

Market Commentary

– The yield tightened last week from the 8.22 region during the first week of trading to around 8.17 corresponding to an

appreciation in bid price during this period.

2

Week 0

24/09 – 29/09

Week 1

01/10 – 05/10

Week 2

08/10 – 12/10

Week 3

15/10 – till date

8.15

8.20

8.25

8.30

9/24/2007 9/30/2007 10/6/2007 10/12/2007

Yie

ld

Page 24: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

Trading Volume

Market Commentary– Week 0: Balanced customer flows.

– Week 1: Small flow, net customer sellers.

– Week 2: Net street selling, small customer buying.

3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Week 0 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3

Pri

nc

ipa

l A

mo

un

t U

SD

(m

illi

on

s)

24/09 – 29/09 01/10 – 05/10 08/10 – 12/10 15/10 – till date

Page 25: Sovereign Participation in the International Bond Market: The Ghana Case

25

SOME LESSONS LEARNED AND CHALLENGES Challenge of creating a meaningful role for local investment

banking and legal experts - 3 Local co managers appointed but process is almost completely managed by international advisors because of highly technical nature of work. How do we capture some of the expertise locally when lead managers carry liability?

100% pot allotment means local managers are unable to participate in allotment process difficulty of securing allotments for critical local investment

constituencies Reorienting economic management from program-driven

discipline to market-driven discipline Developing a strong investor relations culture to support

secondary market and future issues e.g. information desk, regular information releases, etc