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Credit Suisse First Boston 2007 Energy Summit February 6, 2007 Southern Company Overview

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Southern Company Overview. Credit Suisse First Boston 2007 Energy Summit February 6, 2007. Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Southern Company Overview

Credit Suisse First Boston2007 Energy SummitFebruary 6, 2007

Southern Company Overview

Page 2: Southern Company Overview

2

Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information

NOTE: Much of the information contained in this presentation is forward-looking information based on current expectations and plans that involve risks and uncertainties. Southern Company cautions that there are certain factors that can cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information that has been provided. The reader is cautioned not to put undue reliance on this forward-looking information, which is not a guarantee of future performance and is subject to a number of uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside the control of Southern Company; accordingly, there can be no assurance that such suggested results will be realized.

The following factors, in addition to those discussed in Southern Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended Dec

31, 2005, and subsequent securities filings, could cause results to differ materially from management expectations as suggested by such forward-looking information: the impact of recent and future federal and state regulatory change, including legislative and regulatory initiatives regarding deregulation and restructuring of the electric utility industry and implementation of the Energy Policy Act of 2005, and also changes in environmental, tax and other laws and regulations to which Southern Company and its subsidiaries are subject, as well as changes in application of existing laws and regulations; current and future litigation, regulatory investigations, proceedings or inquiries, including the pending EPA civil actions against certain Southern Company subsidiaries, FERC matters, IRS audits and Mirant-related matters; the effects, extent and timing of the entry of additional competition in the markets in which Southern Company’s subsidiaries operate; variations in demand for electricity, including those relating to weather, the general economy and population and business growth (and declines); available sources and costs of fuels; ability to control costs; investment performance of Southern Company’s employee benefit plans; advances in technology; state and federal rate regulations and the impact of pending and future rate cases and negotiations, including rate cases relating to fuel and storm restoration cost recovery; the performance of projects undertaken by the non-utility businesses and the success of efforts to invest in and develop new opportunities; fluctuations in the level of oil prices; the level of production, if any, by the synthetic fuel operations at Carbontronics Synfuels Investors LP and Alabama Fuel Products LLC for fiscal year 2007; internal restructuring or other restructuring options that may be pursued; potential business strategies, including acquisitions or dispositions of assets or businesses, which cannot be assured to be completed or beneficial to Southern Company or its subsidiaries; the ability of counterparties of Southern Company and its subsidiaries to make payments as and when due; the ability to obtain new short- and long-term contracts with neighboring utilities; the direct or indirect effect on Southern Company’s business resulting from terrorist incidents and the threat of terrorist incidents; interest rate fluctuations and financial market conditions and the results of financing efforts, including Southern Company’s and its subsidiaries’ credit ratings; the ability of Southern Company and its subsidiaries to obtain additional generating capacity at competitive prices; catastrophic events such as fires, earthquakes, explosions, floods, hurricanes, pandemic health events such as avian influenza or other similar occurrences; the direct or indirect effects on Southern Company’s business resulting from incidents similar to the August 2003 power outage in the Northeast; and the effect of accounting pronouncements issued periodically by standard-setting bodies. Southern Company and its subsidiaries expressly disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking information.

Page 3: Southern Company Overview

3

Agenda for Today

• 2006 results• Our focus for 2007• Traditional Operating Companies• Southern Power• Preparing for the future• Financial metrics and performance

Page 4: Southern Company Overview

4

2006 Results

EPS excluding synfuel

Guidance: $2.03-$2.08

Actual: $2.10

EPS with synfuel: $2.12

Other Key MetricsCompetitive Generation Net Income: $305M(SPC $125M)

Core ROE: 13.5%Payout ratio: 73% Common Equity Ratio: 41%

Reconciliation to GAAP numbers for 2006 in Appendix

Page 5: Southern Company Overview

5

Historical EPS Performance – Excluding Synfuel

$1.58

$1.81

$1.95 $1.92

$2.03

$1.50

$1.70

$1.90

$2.10

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

2001-2006Average

Growth Rate

5.9%

Reconciliation to GAAP numbers for ’01-’06 in Appendix

$2.10

2006

Page 6: Southern Company Overview

6

Our Focus in 2007 – Near Term

• Georgia Power retail rate case

• Capital projects, including a $4.6 billion environmental construction program over the next three years

Plant Bowen, Cartersville, Georgia

Scrubbers –2005 – 2010

Scrubbers –2005 – 2010

Precipitators – 1979 – 1981

Precipitators – 1979 – 1981

NOx Controls1992 – 2003

NOx Controls1992 – 2003

Original Plant1975

Original Plant1975

Page 7: Southern Company Overview

7

Our Focus in 2007 – On-going and Long Term

• Continue industry-leading reliability and customer satisfaction, while maintaining retail prices that are below the national average

• Meeting increased energy demand with the best economic and environmental choices

• Continuing to deliver on our value proposition: superior risk-adjusted total shareholder return

ConstructiveRegulation

Healthy CapitalSpending

High ReliabilityLow Prices

High CustomerSatisfaction

Customers

Page 8: Southern Company Overview

8

EFOR of 1.11% ranked first among electric generation companies with more than 6,000 MW

RELIABILITY

CUSTOMER SATISFACTION

Number 1 among electric utilities in the American Customer Satisfaction Index for the past 7 years

Our Focus on Low Price and Reliability Drives Strong Customer Satisfaction

Nuclear EFOR of 0% in 4th quarter 2006

Prices significantly below national average

LOW PRICE

Page 9: Southern Company Overview

9

4 Traditional Operating Companies

Southern Power

Net Income: Solid base plusLong-term growth

Exceptional Long-Term

Shareholder ValueTop Quartile Returns (13.5%)

Our Major Businesses

Georgia Power

Mississippi Power

Gulf Power

Alabama Power

Page 10: Southern Company Overview

Traditional Operating CompaniesThe foundation of our business

Page 11: Southern Company Overview

11

Traditional Operating Companies

• Strong organic growth– 2% average long-term growth in electricity demand– 1.7% average long-term customer growth

• Economies of scale– 4.3 million retail customers– 27,000 miles of transmission– Over 41,000 MW of generation

• A diverse regional economy

• Constructive regulatory environment

35%Industrial

32%Residential

33%Commercial

Customer Mix(12/31/2005)

Page 12: Southern Company Overview

12

We Plan to Invest Over $11B in Our Traditional Operating Companies Over the Next 3 Years

All Other

New Generation

Transmission & Distribution

Environmental 4.6

$2.4

0.7

3.8

’07-’09 Total $11.4

’07-’09

40%

21%

6%

33%

100%

• Intensive environmental spending period

• $3.3B of growth capital

• 6-7% annual growth in invested capital

• Expected annual D&A of approximately $1.3B

(in billions)

“All other” includes generation maintenance, nuclear fuel, and general corporate investments

Page 13: Southern Company Overview

13

2007 Georgia Power Base Rate Case

• Expect to file June 29, 2007• Decision due December 2007 with new rates

effective January 2008• Primary driver for need for increase:

– Recovering environmental capital costs • Other drivers:

– Transmission and distribution– Additional capacity– Operations and maintenance

Page 14: Southern Company Overview

Southern Power

Page 15: Southern Company Overview

15

Southern Power Business Model

• Long-term bilateral contracts

• Financially strong counterparties

• Minimal fuel risk and spark spread risk

• Minimal remarketing risk through the middle of the next decade– Over 6,700 MW of nameplate capacity at Southern Power – Recent contracts provide average coverage of capacity of

about 82% through 2015

Page 16: Southern Company Overview

16

Southern Power Company

MunicipalsCity of Dalton FMPAPMPA KUANCMPA1 OUC

Co-ops11 GA EMCs NCEMCEnergyUnited Seminole

IOUs & IPPsAlabama Power Georgia PowerFlorida Power & Light Gulf PowerProgress Energy Florida DukeProgress Ventures

Franklin 1 & 2 CCs

563 & 623 MW MW

Dahlberg 1-10 CTs - 747 MW

Wansley 6 & 7 CCs - 1,129 MW

Harris 1 & 2 CCs

625 & 628 MW Stanton A CC 657 MW*

Oleander 5 CT 160 MW

(2007)

Rowan 480 MW CC 465 MW CT

DeSoto CT 320 MW

Franklin 3 CC 620 MW (2009)

Orlando Gasifier 285MW** (2010)

Oleander 1-4 CTs - 693 MW

CUSTOMERS PLANTS

Orlando Gasifier285MW (2010)

Stanton A CC657 MW

Franklin 3 CC620 MW (2009)

Page 17: Southern Company Overview

17

Southern Power Business Outlook

• Earnings projections through 2009 are at or slightly above 2007 projection of $115 million

• Existing contracts for capacity, including new units at plants Franklin and Oleander, will add to earnings growth beyond 2009

• Expect additional growth opportunities from markets reaching equilibrium by end of decade

• Maintain our strategy of a low risk business that seeks long-term contracts with solid, creditworthy counterparties

Page 18: Southern Company Overview

Preparing for the Future

Page 19: Southern Company Overview

19

• Plans to meet demand must include multiple technology options:– Nuclear power– Coal – both pulverized coal and integrated

gasification combined cycle (IGCC)– Natural gas combined cycle– Renewable energy– Energy efficiency

Southern Company Must Continue to Meet Increasing Demand for Electricity

Page 20: Southern Company Overview

20

Nuclear Power Development

• Southern is taking deliberate steps toward adding new nuclear capacity– Financial strength and scale– Filed an Early Site Permit (ESP) for two additional units at

Plant Vogtle in Georgia– Proposed the Westinghouse AP1000 reactors– Only ESP to date that has referenced a specific technology– Georgia Power nuclear accounting order was approved by Georgia

PSC, to allow recovery of up to $51 million in permitting costs– Working toward a COL in March 2008

Page 21: Southern Company Overview

21

Advances in Coal-Fueled Generation

• FutureGen – Southern Company is a founding member and a key participant with the U.S. Department of Energy

• Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership sponsored by the Department of Energy– Mississippi Power’s Plant Daniel – test site for CO2

storage project• TRansport Integrated Gasification – TRIGTM technology –

developed at PSDF in Wilsonville, Alabama

Page 22: Southern Company Overview

22

Wilsonville, AlabamaPower System Development Facility

“America’s Advanced Coal Research Center”– U.S. Department of Energy

Page 23: Southern Company Overview

23

Southern Company’s IGCC

• TRansport Integrated Gasification – TRIGTM technology – developed at PSDF in Wilsonville, Alabama– Unique that this can efficiently use PRB or lignite coal

• Technology to be further demonstrated at Orlando Utilities’ Stanton Energy Center– 285 MW IGCC air-blown transport gasifier– Startup expected in mid-2010– Jointly owned by Southern

and Orlando Utilities, co-funded by U.S. DOE

• Mississippi Power is exploring building 600 MW facility– Received DOE certification

and IRS approval of tax credits

Coal

Air/Oxygen

Gasifier

Syngas to CC

Combined Cycle

Page 24: Southern Company Overview

24

Renewable Energy Investments

• Southern Company is pursuing equity investments in renewable energy projects including wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal– Southern Company owns a 30 MW geothermal

project that supplies 15% of the power in Hawaii

• Southern Company has invested $6 million over the past five years in research and development of renewable energy– More than 20 research and development

projects are in progress, including one that uses switchgrass as a biomass fuel

• Our customers in the Southeast can now sign up for green energy

Page 25: Southern Company Overview

25

Energy Efficiency

• Southern Company’s programs have avoided the need for ~3,000 MW of peaking capacity

• Programs include– Interruptible/Stand-by– Direct load control– Time of use rates, real time pricing– Energy audits– Good Cents / Good Cents Select

Page 26: Southern Company Overview

26

Southern Is the Industry Leader in Demonstrating and Applying New Technologies

Chiyoda ScrubberEnergy Efficiency

Renewables

FutureGen

CO2 Sequestration

IGCC – TRIG

Mercury Control Research Center

Power SystemsDevelopment Facility

Real Time Pricing

GoodCentsSELECT

Page 27: Southern Company Overview

Southern Company’sFinancial Metrics and Performance

Page 28: Southern Company Overview

28

The best, risk-adjusted total shareholder return (TSR)(balanced price appreciation plus dividend yield)

EPSGrowth

DivYield

TSR

Southern Company

ValueProposition

TSR

Regular, predictable, sustainable earnings growth with attractive dividend growth

5% 5% 10%

Page 29: Southern Company Overview

29

Historical EPS Performance – Excluding Synfuel

$1.58

$1.81

$1.95 $1.92

$2.03

$1.50

$1.70

$1.90

$2.10

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

2001-2006Average

Growth Rate

5.9%

Reconciliation to GAAP numbers for ’01-’06 in Appendix

$2.10

2006

Page 30: Southern Company Overview

30

Best Forward-Looking Earnings Predictability in the Industry

SOSCG

ED EXC SRE

AEECEGETR FPL PEG

MDUPGN

PPL

D NI PNWWEC

AEP FE

DUK

DTE

XEL

TXU

AYE EIX PCG

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Source: Earnings Predictability Score from Value Line as of 12/29/2006; includes all large-cap electric utilities covered by Value Line as of 12/31/06

Value Line Earnings Predictability Score

Regular, predictable, sustainable

Page 31: Southern Company Overview

31

In April 2006, the Southern Company Board of Directors approved an increase to the annual dividend of 6¢, or 4.0%, to $1.55 per share

Commitment to Dividend Provides Stable Income for Investors

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

237 consecutive quarters of

dividend payments

Commitment to dividend is foundation of financial policy

Page 32: Southern Company Overview

32

OneYear

PostSpin

TenYear

ThirtyYear

Southern Company (%) 11.7 15.2 16.0 15.4

S&P 500 Electric Utility Index (%) 23.2 9.2 11.8 NA

S&P 500 Index (%) 15.8 5.6 8.4 12.5Annualized returns for periods ending December 29, 2006

Source: Bloomberg, FactSet and Standard & Poor’s. Assumes all dividends are reinvested and returns are compounded daily.

Exceptional returns for long-term investors

Focused on Shareholder Return

Page 33: Southern Company Overview

33

Consistency Has Provided Exceptional Value for Our Shareholders

Focused management team has delivered on its commitments

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

$18,000

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06

Value of $1000 invested on 12/31/86Value ($)

Source: Bloomberg; assumes all dividends are reinvested and returns are compounded daily through 12/31/06; includes all large-cap electric utilities covered by Value Line as of 12/31/06

SO$16,023

Page 34: Southern Company Overview

34

Price performance as of 1/26/2007 from Bloomberg

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

4/2/01 10/2/01 4/2/02 10/2/02 4/2/03 10/2/03 4/2/04 10/2/04 4/2/05 10/2/05 4/2/06 10/2/06

SO 69%

Dow Jones28%

S&P Electric Utility Index

31%

Southern’s Price Performance from Spin to 1/26/07

Page 35: Southern Company Overview

35

U.S. companies with electric utility operations and market capitalization over $10 BBSource: Bloomberg; data as of 1/26/2007

Southern’s Credit Rating is Among the Best in the Industry

Strong balance sheet provides financial security

Market Cap S&P Issuer($ billions) Credit Rating

Southern Company 27.2 AFPL Group 22.7 AConsolidated Edison 12.4 AExelon Corp 39.7 BBB+Sempra Energy 15.0 BBB+Constellation Energy 12.9 BBB+Dominion 29.0 BBBDuke Energy 24.0 BBBEntergy 19.0 BBBFirstEnergy Corp 18.8 BBBAmerican Electric Power 17.1 BBBPublic Service Entrp 17.0 BBBPPL Corp 13.4 BBBProgress Energy 12.0 BBBAmeren Corp 11.0 BBBTXU Corp 24.8 BBB-Edison International 14.5 BBB-AES Corp 13.8 BB-PG&E 16.1 NR

Page 36: Southern Company Overview

36

SRE

AEPAYE

AEE

CNP

EDCEGDDTE

EIX

ETR

XEL

EXC

FE

FPLMDU

PNW

PPL

PGN

PEGSCG

TXUWEC SO

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Source: Based on annualized TSR for Mirant spin to 12/31/06 and S&P issuer credit rating as of 12/31/06 from Bloomberg; includes all large-cap electric utilities covered by Value Line as of 12/31/06

S&P Issuer Credit Rating

TSR since Mirant spin

BB+ BBB- AA-BBB+BBB

DUK

NI

Southern’s Returns Are Highest for its Credit Rating

Attractive returns coupled with financial security

Page 37: Southern Company Overview

37

SO

AEP

AEE

CNP

ED CEG D

DTE

DUK

EIX

ETR

XEL

EXCFE

FPL

MDU

NI

PCG

PNW

PPL

PGN

PEG

SCG

SRE TXU

WEC

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40

Sources: Security Market Line drawn using 10-year Treasury yield from Bloomberg as of 12/31/2006 and latest market risk premium from Ibbotson; utility betas from Value Line as of 12/29/06; annualized TSR from Bloomberg for Mirant spin to 12/31/06; includes all large-cap electric utilities covered by Value Line as of 12/31/06

Beta

Security Market Line

TSR since Mirant spin

Exceptional risk-adjusted returns

Southern’s Returns Among Highest For Level of Risk

Page 38: Southern Company Overview

38

Top Five Reasons to Own Southern Company

• Focused management with a proven track record of delivering on commitments

• Regular, predictable, sustainable earnings growth • Attractive dividend growth rate• Strong balance sheet• Exceptional risk-adjusted returns

Industry-leading financial integrity

Page 39: Southern Company Overview

Credit Suisse First Boston2007 Energy SummitFebruary 6, 2007

Southern Company Overview

Page 40: Southern Company Overview

Appendix

Page 41: Southern Company Overview

41

Reconciliation of 2001-2006 EPS Excluding Synfuel to EPS as Reported Under GAAP

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 CAGR, 01-06

EPS excluding synfuel $1.58 $1.81 $1.95 $1.92 $2.03 $2.10 5.9%

Synfuel earnings 0.04 0.05 0.08 0.15* 0.11 0.02

EPS as reported under GAAP $1.62 $1.86 $2.03 $2.07 $2.14 $2.12 5.5%

*2004 synfuel earnings includes $0.05 for the recognition of synthetic fuel tax credits reserved in previous years

Page 42: Southern Company Overview

42

On the Agenda for 2007:Georgia Power Company Fuel Recovery Case filed September 15,

2006 Refiled November 13, 2006 Decision expected February 2007

Base Rate Case – to be filed by July 1, 2007 4 three-year Accounting Orders since

1996 Decision expected December 2007

Retail Regulated Business: Regulatory ProceedingsAccomplished in 2006:Georgia Power Company/Savannah

Electric & Power Fuel Recovery Case – March 2006 Merger completed July 1, 2006 Nuclear Accounting Order

Gulf Power Company Storm Damage Recovery

Existing stipulation extended through 2009

Mississippi Power Company Storm Damage Recovery

Mississippi PSC certified storm damage and recovery costs of approximately $302M

Recovered $276M through community development block grants

PSC Order for $112M Securitization Financing (remaining unrecovered, storm center, reserve)

Page 43: Southern Company Overview

43

Projected Sources and Uses

SourcesNet Operating Cash FlowCommon EquityNet Debt and Preferred

Capital ExpendituresCommon Dividends

2007-2009

$ 11.01.54.6

$ 13.2

$ 17.1

(billions)

Uses

$ 17.1

3.9

Page 44: Southern Company Overview

44

Projected Capital Expenditures by Function'07 - '09

New Generation 0.7$ 5%Fossil/Hydro Retrofits 1.0 8%Environmental 4.6 35%Nuclear Fuel & Retrofits 0.7 5%Transmission 1.5 11%Distribution 2.3 17%Other 0.6 5%

Traditional Operating Companies 11.4$ 87%

Southern Power 1.6 12%Other 0.2 1%

Total Southern Company 13.2$ 100%

Page 45: Southern Company Overview

45

Projected Capital Expenditures by Subsidiary

'07 - '09Alabama 3.9$ 30%Georgia 5.6 43%Gulf 1.1 9%Mississippi 0.6 4%SEGCO 0.1 1%SCS/SNC (Corp.) 0.1 1%

Traditional Operating Companies 11.4$ 87%

Southern Power 1.6 12%Other 0.2 1%

Total Southern Company 13.2$ 100%

Page 46: Southern Company Overview

46

• Over the next decade our current plans call for more than two dozen scrubbers, a dozen SCRs, and several baghouses

• $4.6 billion over the next three years to further lower emissions of sulfur dioxide (S02), nitrogen oxides (NOX), and mercury

Notes: Alabama Power and Georgia Power each include 50% of SEGCO; “Coastal Utilities” includes Gulf Power and Mississippi Power

Our Environmental Strategy Will Help Preserve the Availability of Our Low Cost Generation Fleet

(billions)

Alabama Power

Georgia Power

Coastal Utilities Total

Scrubbers $1.3 $1.4 $0.8 $3.5SCRs 0.2 0.2 0.1 $0.4All Other 0.1 0.3 0.2 $0.6

$1.6 $1.9 $1.1 $4.6

Page 47: Southern Company Overview

47

Developing Technologies for CO2 Capture and Storage

• FutureGen – Southern Company is a founding member and a key participant with the U.S. Department of Energy– The project includes the design, construction, and

operation of a gasification-based plant that will capture and sequester carbon dioxide at full-scale

• We have joined the Department of Energy-sponsored Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership– Mississippi Power’s Plant Daniel has been chosen as a

test site for a carbon dioxide geological storage project

Page 48: Southern Company Overview

48

Mercury Control Research

• Southern Company conducted the first full-scale tests of activated carbon injection for mercury control

• We designed and built the industry’s first integrated Mercury Research Center to test new power plant control technologies

• We are delaying adding expensive baghouses with activated carbon injection by chemical addition at PRB units

Page 49: Southern Company Overview

49

Land and Natural Resource Conservation

• Power of Flight – protects birds though habitat and species restoration and environmental education

• Longleaf Legacy – supports restoration of longleaf pine forests and helps sequester carbon through tree planting

• Five Star Restoration – national conservation program that provides grants and technical support for riparian (land-bordering waterways), coastal, or wetlands restoration projects

Page 50: Southern Company Overview

50

Southern’s Returns Among Highest For Level of Risk

Attractive risk-adjusted returns

ED

AEE

SCG EXC SRE ETRFE FPLWEC

PPL PGN

DCEG DTE MDU EIX PCG

PEGPNW TXU

AEPNI AYE XEL DUK

CNP

SO

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Source: Based on annualized TSR for Mirant spin to 12/31/06 and standard deviation for 2002 - 2006 from Bloomberg; includes all large-cap electric utilities covered by Value Line as of 12/31/06

Ratio of Historical TSR to Standard Deviation of TSR

Page 51: Southern Company Overview

51

Update on FERC Settlement

• In October 2006, Southern Company accepted a FERC settlement order on Southern Power’s pool participation

• The order calls for the functional separation of Southern Power and the embedded wholesale business– Southern Power remains a member of the pool– Southern Power will establish its own marketing, planning, and

sales activities

Page 52: Southern Company Overview

52

EmbeddedWholesale

SouthernPower

Organizational Implications

Pre Settlement Post Settlement

Embedded wholesale and Southern Power separated and no longer managed jointly as Competitive Generation

Competitive Generation

Embedded wholesale and Southern Power managed as one organization

TraditionalOperating

Companies

SouthernPower

EmbeddedWholesale

TraditionalOperating

Companies