southern africa sulphur workshop 2015 icct
TRANSCRIPT
Benefits of Low Sulphur Fuels and Cleaner Vehicles in Southern Africa
Ray Minjares, ICCT Clean Air Program
Southern Africa sub-Regional Low Sulphur Workshop
July 7, 2015
Outdoor air pollution is the ninth leading contributor to global disease burden
Clean, low-sulfur fuel coupled with a vehicle emission control program are the solution in the transport sector
SADC countries should adopt a low sulphur fuels strategy as the foundation of a comprehensive emissions control program
Global adoption of Euro 6/VI fuels and vehicles can eliminate 75 percent of future deaths caused by vehicle emissions
Key Messages
3.7 million deaths from ambient air pollution in 2012
WHO (2014). Ambient (outdoor) and household (indoor) air pollution global and regional burden of disease data. Annual Review of Public Health. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization.
4
Global Passenger Vehicles will Triple in Number by 2050
2030 2x v.2005 __
2050 3x v.2005 __
WHO Finds Diesel Exhaust Causes Cancer (2012)
“The scientific evidence was compelling and the Working Group’s conclusion was unanimous: diesel engine exhaust causes lung cancer in humans.”
-Dr. Christopher Portier
International Agency for Research on Cancer. (2012, June 12). IARC: Diesel Engine Exhaust Carcinogenic. JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Lyon, France: World Health Organization. doi:10.1093/jnci/djs034
Black Carbon is a key target
• Penetrates deep into the lungs
• The second largest contributor to climate warming after CO2
• Greater than 90 percent of transport-related black carbon comes from diesels
• Up to 99 percent removal efficiency with diesel particulate filter
WHO Report on Health Impacts of Black Carbon (2012)
“BC may not be a major directly toxic component of fine PM, but it may operate as a universal carrier of a wide variety of chemicals of varying toxicity..”
“…removing particulates with a modern diesel particle trap …resulted in a complete absence of cardiovascular effects.”
Janssen, N. A. H., Gerlofs-Nijland, M. E., Lanki, T., Salonen, R. O., Cassee, F., Hoek, G., et al. (2012). Health Effects of Black Carbon (pp. 1–96). Copenhagen: World Health Organization.
9
Fuels and Vehicles Act as a Single System
10
Technology Shift Towards Emissions Control
Courtesy of ClearAire, Inc.
11
Los Angeles reduced airborne cancer risk by 50% since 2005 largely from diesel controls
2012 No Diesel PM
2005 2012
Hypothetical: No Diesel PM
http://www.aqmd.gov/docs/default-source/air-quality/air-toxic-studies/mates-iv/mates-iv-draft-report-10-1-14.pdf?sfvrsn=4
Emission Controls with Stringent Fuel and Vehicle Standards
http://www.theicct.org/global-health-roadmap
Status of Low-Sulphur Fuels in 2015
Costs and Benefits of AFRI-4 Fuels in SSA
Billions 2007 Dollars
SSA Total
West Africa
East Africa Southern Africa
5-Year Refinery Investment Costs
$ 2.76 B $ 0.47 B $ 2.13 B 0.59 B
Health Benefits over 5 Years1
$ 25 B $ 18 B $ 5.3 B $ 1.0 B
10-year Refinery Investment Costs
$ 6.14 B $ 4.96 B $ 2.48 B $ 0.99 B
Health Benefits over 10 Years1
$ 43 B $ 33 B $ 9.0 B $ 1.8 B
1. Central value shown for elasticity=1.5; ranges for elasticities of 1.0 and 2.0 are shown in the report. For Scenario 2
(lower sulfur fuel and pollution control equipment) and alternate 2-stroke motorcycle emissions assumptions.
ICF International (2009). Final Report: Sub-Saharan Africa Refinery Project Executive Summary. Submitted to the World Bank and the African Refiners Association. June 2009
Total Investments (USD)
Per liter costs: Gasoline
Per liter costs:Diesel
China $6.9 billion 0.66-0.78¢ 1.42-1.83¢
Mexico $3.3 billion 1.10-1.40¢ 2.50-3.20¢
Brazil $6.3 billion 1.64-1.96¢ 1.55-1.96¢
India $4.1 billion 0.70-0.87¢ 0.64-0.88¢
Costs of Euro 6/VI Fuels in other countries
Details: China – value of moving to Euro VI-equivalent standards
Benefits Costs Net Benefits
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Climate Benefits Health Benefits Costs of Emission Standards
Costs of Fuel Standards Net Benefits
Cu
mu
lati
ve
co
sts
an
d b
en
efi
ts o
f C
hin
a 6
/VI
(1
00
mill
ion
RM
B)
Details: Mexico – value of moving to heavy-duty standards equivalent to Euro VI
Benefits Costs Net benefits
Net benefits 0 0 122.775063891824
Cost of vehicle technologies 0 -3.51121271867693 0
Cost of DEF 0 -2.49690190613351 0
Cost of fuel standards 0 -6.0471713141831 0
Climate benefits GWP-20 10.3788248127904 0 0
Health benefits 124.451525018027 0 0
$(10)
$10
$30
$50
$70
$90
$110
$130 C
um
ula
tive
pre
sen
t d
isco
un
ted
val
ue
to 2
037
[b
illio
n U
SD
]
18
Projections of future health impacts of vehicle emissions
Source: ICCT Health Roadmap (2013)
Annual premature mortality by region, 2000–2030
Euro 6/VI Adopted
ICCT/UNEP launching a Soot-Free Urban Bus Project in 2015
Seeking city-level commitments to procure only soot-free buses
Johannesburg included in 20 target cities globally Central maintenance and fueling = lower barriers First 6 committed cities will receive
implementation assistance
Near-term : Pursue Early Intervention in Targeted Fleets such as via Soot-Free Bus Fleet
Long-term: Pursue a comprehensive vehicle emission control strategy
Clean Transportation
Clean vehicle technology
Transportation and land use
planning
Clean fuels
Appropriate inspection,
maintenance, & enforcement
Fuel quality is the foundation for air pollution control in the transport sector
Low sulphur fuels are necessary to: Reduce sulphate particulate emissions from all vehicles Enable emission control equipment that produce the
greatest reductions in vehicle emissions overall
Cleaner fuels must be coupled to cleaner vehicles to realize their full health and environmental benefits
Conclusions
