Southeast Michigan Council of Governments

Michigan Suburbs AllianceAugust 2, 2013

2040Regional

TransportationPlan

Six goals shape policy

1. Access to jobs, markets, services and amenities

2. Reliable quality infrastructure

3. Attractive environmental assets

Goals continued

4. Economic prosperity

5. Desirable communities

6. Fiscally sustainable public services

Projects range “from A to Z”

• Transit• Operations• Pavement/bridge maintenance• Bike/pedestrian projects• Safety• Capacity

Employment and Population Similar to 2000 Levels

Southeast Michigan, 1990-2040

Source: SEMCOG 2040 Regional Development Forecast

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

2032

2035

2038

2000000

2200000

2400000

2600000

2800000

3000000

3200000

3400000

3600000

4,100,000.0

4,200,000.0

4,300,000.0

4,400,000.0

4,500,000.0

4,600,000.0

4,700,000.0

4,800,000.0

4,900,000.0

Empl

oym

ent (

Mill

ions

)

How We are Investing Between 2014-2017

Blue Water Bridge Plaza

8%

I-94 Re-construc-

tion & Widening

7%

North Amer-ican Intrena-tional Trade

Crossing85%

How We are Investing Through 2040

Safety6% Bridge

4%

Pavement15%

Capacity4%Major Im-

provement Projects

24%

Nonmotorized1%

Road Operations4%

Transit Capital20%

Transit Operations22%

I-75 Re-construc-

tion & Widening

21%

Blue Water Bridge Plaza

3%

I-94 Reconstruction & Widening

46%

North Amer-ican Intrena-tional Trade

Crossing30%

Motor Fuels Tax Receipts

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012$860

$880

$900

$920

$940

$960

$980

$1,000

$1,020

$1,040

$1,060

Rev

enu

e (i

n m

illi

ons)

20102012

20142016

20182020

20222024

20262028

20302032

20342036

20382040

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

Gas Tax Revenue w/pre-2009 CAFE standardsGas Tax Revenue w/2012-2016 CAFE standardsGas Tax Revenue w/2017-2025 CAFE standards

Ann

ual R

even

ue (

in m

illi

on) $204

million per year

Infrastructure Funding Formulas are Increasingly Obsolete

Impact of Federal Fuel Economy Standards

We're Under-Investing…Changing pavement condition

Perc

ent L

ane

Mil

es

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

GoodFairPoor

2004 2012Costs have more than doubled

…and it is escalating costs to taxpayers

(in millions)

2004 2012

$832

$1,820

More funding is needed to ensure infrastructure is properly maintained.

70% Say More Funding is Needed to Care for What We Have

Agree70%

Dis-agree10%

Not Sure20%

The Paradox:73% also say the problem is inefficiency

in spending, not the amount of $ we have

It’s not the amount we spend, it’s how efficiently we spend it.

Agree73%

Dis-agree10%

Not Sure17%

Pay higher taxes/fees to improve public transit

Pay higher taxes/fees to widen roads

Use public transit or carpool

Travel earlier/later

Occasionally use different route

Occasionally work from home

28%

32%

56%

76%

80%

81%

Actions Willing to Take

Good News: Significant Majority Are Willing to Act

State Equalized Value (SEV) and Taxable Value of Property

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

$100,000,000,000

$120,000,000,000

$140,000,000,000

$160,000,000,000

$180,000,000,000

$200,000,000,000

$220,000,000,000

$240,000,000,000

SEV:-$99 Billion (-44%) from

peak in 2006 to 2015

Taxable Value: -$60 Billion (-33%) from

peak in 2007 to 2015

Inflation Adjusted to 2010 dol-lars

Advocacy Thoughts

• Case for roads and transit• We have a job to do in this climate• Residents and legislature• Transit separate• Short- and long-term strategy

Annual Revenue Generated in Southeast Michigan

Different Funding Mechanisms

2010 2020 2030 2040$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

19¢ Gas Tax Revenue w/Fuel Economy Impact33¢ Gas Tax Revenue w/Fuel Economy ImpactVMT Charge Revenue at $.01/mile VMT Charge Revenue at $.015/mile

(in

mil

lion

s)

Southeast Michigan Council of Governments