SOUTHEAST ALASKA PARKS

PLENARY #2:SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND,

DRIVERS, AND EFFECTS

Climate Change Planning in Alaska’s National Parks

Selecting Drivers – Key points

Drivers are the Critical forces in our scenarios planning process.

Critical forces generally have unusually high impact and unusually high uncertainty

We are aiming to create scenarios that are: Challenging Divergent Plausible Relevant

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CLIMATE SCENARIOSBIOREGION: ______________

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CLIMATE SCENARIOSBIOREGION: ______________

Avoid pairs of drivers that are too similar – think of the effects of crossing them with one another

Choose drivers that lead to the effects that are most critical

Pick drivers with a wide range of possible outcomes

Choose drivers that impact several sectors, e.g tourism, subsistence, and wildlife, not just one

Select drivers with effects in most of the parks in the network

Select drivers with a high enough likelihood to be convincing to stakeholders

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Climate Change Scenario Drivers

TEMPERATURE AND LINKED VARIABLESthaw, freeze, season length, extreme days, permafrost, ice, freshwater temperature

PRECIPITATION AND LINKED VARIABLES:rain, snow, water availability, storms and flooding,

humidity

PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO)definition, effects, and predictability

SEA LEVELerosion also linked to sea ice and storms

OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

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Temperature and linked variables Temperature based on downscaled

monthly averages from SNAP Uncertainty due to GCM uncertainty,

emissions scenarios, downscaling uncertainty, PDO

Season length, freeze, and thaw dates interpolated from mean monthly temperatures

Permafrost thaw derived from ground cover, soil type, air temperature projections

Extreme days an extension of temperature trend

Sea ice and freshwater temperature also linked to air temperature

Precipitation and linked variables

Temperature based on downscaled monthly averages from SNAP Uncertainty due to GCM uncertainty,

emissions scenarios, downscaling uncertainty, PDO

Uncertainty greater than for temperature

Models do not separate rain/snow Storms include wind and precipitation

Flooding and erosion more dependent on timing than quantity

Water availability linked to precipitation and temperature

Humidity and cloud cover

Projected Winter Temperatures

2010’s

2050’s 2090’s

Projected Length of Unfrozen Season

2010’s

2050’s 2090’s

Drivers are linked to effects

Climate effects are the outcomes of the critical forces or drivers, as expressed by significant changes in particular parks. Points to consider include:

Time frame (20 years? 100 years?)Uncertainty (of both driver and effect)Severity of effect (and reversibility)Scope: what parks, who is impacted?Repercussions: what is the story?Feedback to policy

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Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:La_Nina_and_Pacific_Decadal_Anomalies_-_April_2008.png

Pattern of Pacific climate variability that shifts phases about every 20 to 30 years (compared to 6-18 months for ENSO)

First identified by Steven R. Hare in 1997.

Warm or cool surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, north of 20° N.

In a "warm", or "positive", phase, the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms; during a "cool" or "negative" phase, the opposite occurs.13

PDO -- Effects

Major changes in marine ecosystems correlated with PDO.

Warm eras have seen enhanced coastal ocean productivity in Alaska and inhibited productivity off the west coast of the contiguous United States.

Cold PDO eras have seen the opposite.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/images/fgz/science/pdo_latest.gif

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PDO -- Predictability

PDO is caused by several processes with different origins, including ENSO and more stochastic influences .

Currently NOAA has limited ability to predict PDO more than 1 year out.

Controversy exists over how PDO works, and how it might best be monitored, modeled and predicted.

Predictive strength may be improving.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

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Ocean Acidification

Reduced survival of larval marine speciesAlgae and zooplankton reducedSerious consequences for food websExact thresholds unclear

Sea Level and Storm Surges

http://seagrant.uaf.edu/map/climate/docs/sea-level.pdf

Along the southern shores of Alaska the effect so far is hardly noticeable, because most of the coastline also is slowly rising due to tectonic forces and isostatic rebound.

On the Bering Sea coast and in the Arctic, however, communities are experiencing increased damage from storm surges (extreme high water events caused by high winds and low atmospheric pressure), shoreline loss to fierce winter storms, and saltwater intrusion into freshwater sources, sanitation lagoons, and fish and wildlife habitats.

Indications are that all of this is being made worse by a gradual rise in sea level.

Survey Results

Survey asked only about the IMPORTANCE of various effects

In selecting drivers, we will also consider the UNCERTAINTY

Time frame is also an important consideration

Not all participants responded to the survey (27 responses as of this morning)

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Increasedcarbon

storage inplants

reducesatmospheric

CO2

Increased airtemperature

Averageannual

temperaturesshift from

belowfreezing to

above

Increasedprecipitation

More storms Moreavalanches

Freezing rainmore

common

Lightning andlightning-

induced fires

Air qualityimpacts fromforest fires

ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTSAv

erag

e Ra

ting

0

5

10

15

20

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Increase

d carbon st

orage in

plants

reduce

s atm

ospheri

c CO2

Increase

d air t

emperature

Average

annual

temperatur

es sh

ift fro

m below fre

ezing t

o above

Increase

d precipita

tion

More sto

rms

More av

alanc

hes

Freez

ing ra

in more

common

Lightn

ing and l

ightni

ng-induce

d fires

Air quali

ty im

pacts fr

om forest

fires

3 - very important

2 - medium importance

1 - sl ightly important

0 - not important

ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS

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Fall ing globalphytoplanktonconcentrationreduces ocean

productivityand CO2

sequestration

Freshwaterinflux from

thawingglaciersdilutes

mineral waters

Toxic marinealgae andshellfish

poisoningaffects human

and marinemammals

Oceanacidification

affectsplankton and

benthiccalcifying

fauna

Oceanacidification

reduces soundabsorption

Coastalerosion and

sea level riseincrease

frequency ofsaltwaterflooding

Stream flowsfrom melting

glaciersincrease, thendecrease over

time

Groundwatersupplies that

depend onseasonal

glacialrecharge

become lessdependable

HYDROSPHERIC EFFECTSAv

erag

e Ra

ting

0

5

10

15

20

25

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Fallin

g global

phytoplan

kton co

ncentra

tion reduc

es oce

an prod

uctivit

y and CO2...

Fresh

water in

flux fro

m thaw

ing glacie

rs dilu

tes minera

l wate

rs

Toxic

mari

ne alga

e and sh

ellfish

poiso

ning affec

ts human a

nd m

arine m

ammals

Ocean

acidifica

tion affec

ts plan

kton an

d benthic

calcif

ying fa

una

Ocean

acidifica

tion reduc

es so

und abso

rption

Coastal

erosio

n and

sea l

evel ri

se in

crease

frequen

cy of

saltw

ater floodin

g

Strea

m flows from

melting g

lacier

s incre

ase, th

en decre

ase ove

r time

Groun

dwater su

pplies t

hat de

pend on s

easonal

glacia

l rech

arge beco

me less

d...

3 - very important

2 - sl ightly important

1 - sl ightly important

0 - not important

HYDROSPHERIC EFFECTS

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Shorter snowand iceseason

Glaciersdiminish

Glacialoutwash

affect aquaticproductivity

Glacial lakesand glacially

dammedlakes fail,

causing flashfloods

Culturalresources are

exposed assnow and ice

recede

CRYOSPHERIC EFFECTSAv

erag

e R

ating

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Shorter snow andice season

Glaciers diminish Glacial outwashaffect aquaticproductivity

Glacial lakes andglacially dammedlakes fail , causing

flash floods

Cultural resourcesare exposed assnow and ice

recede

3 - very important

2 - medium importance

1 - sl ightly important

0 - not important

CRYOSPHERIC EFFECTS

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Landslides and mudflows increase on steep

slopes

Earthquake activityincreases in recently

deglaciated areas

Large/small tsunamiscould result from

collapse of unstableslopes in fjords

Soil moisture declines Demand for rubble androck increases as it is

require for repairs andnew construction

LITHOSPHERIC EFFECTSAv

erag

e Ra

ting

0

5

10

15

20

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Landslides andmud flows increase

on steep slopes

Earthquake activityincreases in

recentlydeglaciated areas

Large/smalltsunamis could

result fromcollapse of

unstable slopes infjords

Soil moisturedeclines

Demand for rubbleand rock increasesas it is require forrepairs and new

construction

3 - very important

2 - medium importance

1 - sl ightly important

0 - not important

LITHOSPHERIC EFFECTS

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Ecological tipping points likely to result in rapid change

Increased growing season length

Large-scale landcover changes

Vegetation expands into deglaciated coastal areas

Tree species and vegetation classes shift

Mountain and arctic ecosystems could change substantially, leading to extinctions

Drought stress affects dry forests

Atypical outbreaks of forest pests and plant diseases

Invaisve exotic speices and native species from other areas

Mature forests and 'old growth' decline

Fire increases in boreal and tundra ecosystems

BIOSPHERIC EFFECTS - vegetation and fireAv

erag

e Ra

ting

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ecologic

al tippin

g points

likely t

o resul

t in ra

pid chan

ge

Increase

d growing s

easo

n length

Large

-scale

landco

ver c

hang

es

Vegetati

on expan

ds into deg

laciat

ed co

astal

areas

Tree sp

ecies

and ve

getati

on clas

ses s

hift

Mountain an

d arcti

c eco

systems c

ould chan

ge su

bstan

tially, le

ading t

o extinc

t...

Drough

t stre

ss aff

ects dry

fores

ts

Atypica

l outbrea

ks of fo

rest pests

and plan

t dise

ases

Invaisv

e exoti

c speice

s and n

ative

spec

ies fr

om other are

as

Mature fo

rests

and 'o

ld growth' d

eclin

e

Fire i

ncreases

in bore

al and tu

ndra

ecosys

tems

3 - very important

2 - medium importance

1 - sl ightly important

0 - not important

BIOSPHERIC EFFECTS - vegetation and fire

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Harbor seals moveor decline

Increased ambientsound affects

marine mammals

Caribou andreindeer healthmay be affected

Fire and vegetationchanges may

increase moosehabitat

Climate changedecouples birth

timing, hinderingmoose calf

survival

Reduced snowcover reduces

survival of smallmammals

BIOSPHERIC EFFECTS - wildlife: mammalsAv

erag

e Ra

ting

0

5

10

15

20

25

Harbor sealsmove or decline

Increasedambient soundaffects marine

mammals

Caribou andreindeer healthmay be affected

Fire andvegetation

changes mayincrease moose

habitat

Climate changedecouples birth

timing,hindering

moose calfsurvival

Reduced snowcover reduces

survival ofsmall mammals

3 - very important

2 - medium importance

1 - sl ightly important

0 - not important

BIOSPHERIC EFFECTS - wildlife: mammals

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Commercial fisheries shift

Ocean acidification affects fisheries

New stream habitats become available for colonization

Fish diseases increase with rising temperatures

Some existing salmon waters may become unsuitable

Ice worm populations decline locally

Marine intertidal environments change

Exotic pests, diseases and their vectors expand

Intensified management of fisheries affects subsistence

BIOSPHERIC EFFECTS - wildlife: fish and invertebratesAv

erag

e Ra

ting

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Commercial

fisherie

s shift

Ocean

acidifica

tion affec

ts fish

eries

New stream

habita

ts bec

ome ava

ilable

for coloniza

tion

Fish dise

ases s

uch as

Ichtyo

phonus in

crease

with ris

ing tempera

tures

Some ex

isting s

almon w

aters

may beco

me unsu

itable

Ice w

orm populati

ons dec

line lo

cally

Marine i

ntertidal

envir

onments ch

ange

Exotic p

ests,

disea

ses a

nd their

vecto

rs exp

and

Intensified

mana

gemen

t of fi

sheri

es exp

ands, a

ffecting

subsis

tence

3 - very important

2 - medium importance

1 - sl ightly important

0 - not important

BIOSPHERIC EFFECTS - wildlife: fish and invertebratesBIOSPHERIC EFFECTS - wildlife: fish and invertebrates

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Changes to terrestrial and aquatic species compositions in parks and refuges

Parks and refuges maynot be able to meet mandate of protecting current species within...

Changes in terrestrial and marine wildlife distributions affect visitor experiences

Some species suffer severe losses

Animals and plants expand into landscapes vacated by glacial ice

Predator-prey relationships change in unexpected ways

Migratory routes and destinations change

Alpine breeding birds' habitats reduced

Kittlitz's murrelet populations continue to decline

Waterfolw shifts occur as coastal ponds become more salty

Productivity of nesting shorebirds increase

Altered migration patterns make hunting more challenging

Community resources available for subsistence decline

BIOSPHERIC EFFECTS - wildlife: other issuesAv

erag

e Ra

ting

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Change

s to te

rrestr

ial an

d aquati

c spec

ies co

mpositions in

parks an

d refuge

s

Parks a

nd refu

ges m

aynot b

e able

to m

eet man

date of p

rotecti

ng curre

nt sp...

Change

s in te

rrestr

ial an

d mari

ne wild

life dist

ributions a

ffect v

isitor

exper.

..

Some sp

ecies s

uffer sev

ere lo

sses

Animals

and plan

ts ex

pand in

to landsca

pes vaca

ted by g

lacial

ice

Predator-p

rey re

lationshi

ps chan

ge in

unexp

ected w

ays

Migrato

ry routes a

nd desti

nations

chan

ge

Alpine br

eeding

birds' h

abitats

reduce

d

Kittlitz

's murre

let populati

ons con

tinue to

declin

e

Wate

rfolw

shifts o

ccur a

s coasta

l ponds

become m

ore sal

ty

Productivit

y of n

esting s

horebirds in

crease

Altered

migrati

on patt

erns make

hunting m

ore chall

enging

Community

reso

urces a

vaila

ble for s

ubsist

ence

declin

e

3 - very important

2 - medium importance

1 - sl ightly important

0 - not important

BIOSPHERIC EFFECTS - wildlife: other issues

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Impacts to wilderness values

Tourism season lengthens

Landscape-level changes affect visitor experiences

Visitor use patterns shift

Visitor demand for new interpretive/education media products

Safety hazards develop

Predictive uses of TEK will change

Natural resource development and economic activities expand

Developmental pressures increase as snow and ice cover reduced

Infrastructre development expands along Alaska's coasts

Damage to roads, buildings, other infrastructure

Relocating indigenous communities

Aver

age

Ratin

gCOMMUNITY, TOURISM, INDUSTRY AND OTHER EFFECTS

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5

10

15

20

25

30

Impa

cts to

wild

erness

values

Touris

m seaso

n length

ens

Landsc

ape-l

evel c

hang

es aff

ect vis

itor e

xperi

ence

s

Visitor u

se patterns s

hift

Visitor d

eman

d for n

ew in

terpre

tive/e

duca

tion media

products

Safety

hazard

s deve

lop

Predictive

uses

of TEK

will

chan

ge

Natural reso

urce dev

elopment a

nd econo

mic acti

vities e

xpan

d in Alas

ka

Developm

ental p

ressur

es incre

ase as a

n effec

t of r

educe

d snow and

ice c

over

Infrastr

uctre deve

lopment ex

pands

along Alas

ka's c

oasts

Damag

e to ro

ads, b

uildings,

other infra

struc

ture

Relocati

ng in

digeno

us com

munities

Fuel

and en

ergy pric

es incre

ase su

bstantiall

y

3 - very important

2 - medium importance

1 - sl ightly important

0 - not important

COMMUNITY, TOURISM, INDUSTRY AND OTHER EFFECTS

Critical UncertaintiesSouthwest Alaska Network (SWAN) group, August

workshop

Normal WarmerStream/lake temps

Negative

(colder)

Positive (warmer)PDO

Historical Significant increaseExtreme precip/storms

Measureable

CatastrophicOcean Acidification

Less MoreRiver basin hydrology

Less MoreWater availability

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Climate Drivers

Climate drivers are the critical forces in our scenarios planning process

Critical forces generally have unusually high impact and unusually high uncertainty

Climate drivers table specific for SE Alaska were compiled by John Walsh and Nancy Fresco of SNAP (see handouts).

All scenarios are created by examining the intersection of two drivers, creating four sectors

Selection of drivers is crucial to the planning process

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