south oxfordshire vale of white horse · cheapest market housing over 10 times lower earnings in...
TRANSCRIPT
Summary social statistics for…
South Oxfordshire Vale of White Horse
1 July 2014 Margaret Melling, District Data Analysis Service
This session – social statistics
Part 1: How South Oxfordshire and Vale of White Horse districts are changing
• Population, housing, age, ethnicity, access to services
• Q&A
Part 2: Focus on the Economy
• Jobs, businesses
• Unemployment
• Home working and self-employment
• Long distance commuting
• Q&A
INTRODUCTION
District Data Analysis service - helping Oxfordshire’s district councils to make use of data and evidence
• Jointly funded by Oxfordshire’s district councils, annual agreement: 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15
• 2 days per week of dedicated analyst time hosted by Oxford City Council providing:
– Chart of the month, local area profiles and summary leaflets
– Presentations
– Web pages with library of resources
– Enquiry service by email or phone to provide advice and guidance on sources of social, economic and environmental data
Recent topics
• Participation in sport and active recreation
• Long distance commuting
• Residents employed by the Armed Forces
• Unemployed
• Enterprises
• Car ownership by single older people
Supporting the work of district councils
• Supporting communities…
– Community-led and Neighbourhood plans
– S106 negotiations and other funding bids
• District services…
– Planning for housing, housing services
– Planning for local infrastructure
– Supporting the local economy
– Supporting access to services, ethnicity, language, health/mobility, age
How many car parking spaces are needed in a new housing scheme
for older people?
How many young people will live in the
catchment of the leisure centre in 10
years time?
How many full time and part time jobs are available locally?
How representative are our consultation
findings?
Social and economic trends (e.g. size of household, age of
occupants)
Part of building a comprehensive evidence base
Operational data (e.g. volume of waste
collected)
Customer surveys / consultations
(e.g. satisfaction with waste service)
Evidence
PART 1: CHANGING DISTRICTS
Source: www.visionofbritain.org.uk
1940
Source:
www.visionofbritain.org.uk
Land
Utilisation
Survey of
Britain
1940
Source: www.visionofbritain.org.uk
Land Utilisation Survey of Britain
Most rapid population growth between 1931 and 1971
+2.5k per decade
Source: www.visionofbritain.org.uk
Total resident population (current district boundaries)
South
and Vale
+27k
per
decade
+13k per
decade
Compared with recent high population growth in Oxford city
From Oxford Strategic Partnership presentation Mark Fransham, original source: www.visionofbritain.org.uk
Oxford city population 1801 to 2011
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
1801
1811
1821
1831
1841
1851
1861
1871
1881
1891
1901
1911
1921
1931
1941
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
2021
Tota
l po
pu
lati
on
5,000 per
decade
3,000
10,000
15,000
2001 to 2011 growth in population also below average growth in region and nationally
+10,000
+17,700
+6,000 +5,400
+9,100
Source: ONS Census 2001 table KS02, Census 2011 table KS102
2001 to 2011 CHANGE in resident population
2001 to 2011 population growth in older age group
2001 to 2011 CHANGE Aged 0 to 19
Aged 20 to 59
Aged 60+
Source: ONS Census 2001 table KS02, Census 2011 table KS102 BUT a big variation in age by local area…
Areas with highest % young people Ranked 1 Benson
South Oxfordshire 011C
Residents of households
Age 0-15 32% (489)
Age 65+ 4% (64)
TOTAL 1,543
Source: ONS Census 2011 table LC1104
Vale of White Horse 003A
Residents of households
Age 0-15 31% (447)
Age 65+ 6% (90)
TOTAL 1,427
Source: ONS Census 2011 table LC1104
Areas with highest % young people Ranked 2 Shippon
Vale of White Horse 008C
Residents of households
Age 0-15 30% (426)
Age 65+ 10% (140)
TOTAL 1,411
Source: ONS Census 2011 table LC1104
Areas with highest % young people Ranked 3 area of Abingdon
South Oxfordshire 018D
Residents of households
Age 0-15 15% (210)
Age 65+ 35% (481)
TOTAL 1,389
Source: ONS Census 2011 table LC1104
Areas with highest % older people Ranked 1 area of Goring
South Oxfordshire 20C
Residents of households
Age 0-15 16% (206)
Age 65+ 30% (389)
TOTAL 1,289
Source: ONS Census 2011 table LC1104
Areas with highest % older people Ranked 2 area of Sonning Common
South Oxfordshire 17D
Residents of households
Age 0-15 18% (232)
Age 65+ 30% (388)
TOTAL 1,297
Source: ONS Census 2011 table LC1104
Areas with highest % older people Ranked 3 area of Henley-on-Thames
Increase in number of flats in Vale of White Horse
542
789622
819
36
419
729930
2,004
187
Detached Semi-detached Terraced Purpose built flat Flat conversion
South Oxfordshire Vale of White Horse
CHANGE in dwellings 2001 to 2011
Sources: ONS Census 2011 table KS401 Census 2001 table UV55
2,004 more flats in Vale than in 2001
• Largest 7 parishes have 71% of purpose built flats and 49% of flat conversions in South and Vale
• Other parishes with higher numbers of flat conversions = North Hinksey, Cumnor and Goring
Majority of flats are in main towns
Source: ONS Census 2011 table KS401
Count of households in purpose built flats and flat conversions (2011)
All
households
Purpose
built flats
Flat
conversionsDistrict South Oxfordshire 56,663 4,943 859
District Vale of White Horse 51,036 5,536 903
Vale Abingdon 14,380 2,744 253
South Didcot 10,085 1,178 63
South Henley-on-Thames 5,687 954 204
South Thame 4,877 646 58
Vale Wantage 4,867 831 98
South Wallingford 3,432 618 89
Vale Great Faringdon 3,135 500 113
46,463 7,471 878
43% 71% 50%
Districts and parishes
TOTAL in 7 parishes
% of South and Vale
Cheapest market housing over 10 times lower earnings in South Oxfordshire and 8 times in Vale
Ratio of lower quartile house prices to lower quartile
earnings, 1997-2012
Source: gov.uk live table 572 last updated April 2014
7
10.5
6
8
4
6.5
Ce
nsu
s 2
00
1
Ce
nsu
s 2
011
10.5 times lower quartile earnings at the time of the Census 2011 survey
Growing private rented sector
Private rented as percent of households
Census 2011
South Oxfordshire 13.3%
Vale of White Horse 13.6%
South East 16.8%
England 16.3%
• Significant increase in
% rented households between
2001 and 2011
• In 2011 still below regional and
national averages
16 of 58 wards with over 15% private rented households
Benson
Didcot
Marcham
and
Shippon
Shrivenham
Abingdon
Henley
Thame
Faringdon
Wantage
Census 2011
Source: ONS Census 2011 table KS402
Wallingford
District Ward Count Percentage
South Benson 2,215 663 29.9%
Vale Marcham and Shippon 1,173 342 29.2%
Vale Shrivenham 1,929 541 28.0%
Vale Abingdon Abbey and Barton 2,612 684 26.2%
South Didcot Ladygrove 3,173 683 21.5%
South Didcot Northbourne 2,384 472 19.8%
South Crowmarsh 973 185 19.0%
South Henley North 2,616 486 18.6%
South Henley South 2,641 482 18.3%
South Sandford 1,038 186 17.9%
South Watlington 2,252 395 17.5%
Vale Hendreds 1,692 282 16.7%
Vale North Hinksey and Wytham 1,885 311 16.5%
Vale Faringdon and The Coxwells 3,386 542 16.0%
Vale Craven 972 153 15.7%
South Thame North 2,301 348 15.1%
All
households
Private rented
Growth of social rented sector in Vale of White Horse
Social rented as percent of households
Census 2011
South Oxfordshire 11.4%
Vale of White Horse 13.3%
South East 13.7%
England 17.7%
• Growth in proportion of
Social rented
households between
2001 and 2011 Vale is
against downward trend
in region and nationally
16 of 58 wards with over 15% social rented households
Census 2011
Didcot
Abingdon
Henley
Thame
Faringdon
Wantage
Source: ONS Census 2011 table KS402
Wallingford
District Ward All households Count Percentage
Vale Abingdon Caldecott 1,830 602 32.9%
South Wallingford North 2,647 598 22.6%
Vale Abingdon Northcourt 1,987 415 20.9%
Vale Faringdon and The Coxwells 3,386 691 20.4%
South Berinsfield 2,403 480 20.0%
Vale Abingdon Ock Meadow 2,187 425 19.4%
South Didcot Northbourne 2,384 452 19.0%
Vale Wantage Segsbury 1,612 299 18.5%
South Didcot Park 2,311 399 17.3%
Vale Hendreds 1,692 283 16.7%
Vale Abingdon Fitzharris 1,862 302 16.2%
Vale Sutton Courtenay and Appleford 1,154 187 16.2%
Vale Wantage Charlton 3,105 500 16.1%
South Didcot All Saints 2,265 363 16.0%
Vale Abingdon Abbey and Barton 2,612 416 15.9%
Vale Greendown 910 143 15.7%
Social rented
Demographic change helps to predict demand for services
Overall population growth and changes in types of housing including tenure
Demand for services Location of services
• Areas of new housing tend to have much higher rates of children than average
• Possible to use historical data to model how age profile of new developments will change
For example..
Accessing services – mobility, language
• Those who might be less mobile
– Older people living alone without access to private transport
– People in poor health or with caring responsibilities
• Those who might have language / culture differences
– Ethnicity, language
Higher proportions of single older people outside major urban centres
Source: ONS Interactive map
Households with single person aged 65+ living alone
2,500 older people living alone without a car in rural areas
Source: Census 2011 table DC1401
Percent of all households occupied by people aged 65+ living alone
South Oxfordshire => 6,570 single older people
Vale of White Horse => 5,957 single older people
With a car Without a car
Towns Rural
With a car Without a car
Towns Rural
Becoming more ethnically diverse
Vale of White Horse
South Oxfordshire
CHANGE in resident population by ethnic group, 2001 to 2011
Sources: ONS Census 2001 table KS06; Census 2011 table KS201
increase in population between 2001 and 2011
Low proportion of residents overall “cannot speak English well” (or at all)
% of resident population aged 3 and over who “cannot speak English well”
or “cannot speak English”
Sources: ONS Census 2001 table QS205
541 484
Small ethnic group of Gypsy or Irish Travellers
Nationally 24% of
Gypsy or Irish
Traveller live in a
caravan or
temporary structure
White: Gypsy
or Irish
Traveller
Caravan or
other mobile
or temporary
structure
South Oxfordshire 135 921
Vale of White Horse 109 541
Sandford 27 105
Wheatley 17 164
Shrivenham 16 4
Great Milton 14 15
Benson 12 4
Crowmarsh 12 2
Didcot Northbourne 12 86
Kennington and South Hinksey 12 13
Berinsfield 11 10
Faringdon and The Coxwells 11 1
• 244 residents of
South and Vale
identified as Gypsy
or Irish traveller in
2011
Sources: ONS Census 2001 tables DC2101, KS401
2,500 older people living at home with highest health needs
Availability of care - an issue to monitor
Vale
South
Accessing services - growing internet use
• Access to the Internet using a mobile phone more than doubled between 2010 and 2013, from 24% to 53%.
• In 2013, 72% of all adults bought goods or services online, up from 53% in 2008.
• In 2013, 36 million adults (73%) in Great Britain accessed the Internet every day, 20 million more than in 2006, when directly comparable records began.
4.1
4.5
4.9
5.8
6.4
7.0
7.4
7.6
7.7
7.9
8.3
8.4
10.2
11.3
12.8
16.5
8.5
Wokingham
Vale of White Horse
South Oxfordshire
Chiltern
South Bucks
West Oxfordshire
Aylesbury Vale
Wycombe
Cherwell
Bracknell Forest
West Berkshire
Windsor and Maidenhead
Oxford
Milton Keynes
Reading
Slough
Thames Valley
South and Vale below Thames Valley average on rate of violence per 1,000 population
Violence against the person with
and without injury per 1,000
population 2012-13
Source: Neighbourhood Statistics, Notifiable offences recorded by the Police
2012-13 Violence against the person with and without injury
Summary – part 1
• 2001 to 2011 population growth in older age group
• Market housing remains unaffordable
• Growing private rented sector
• Risk of isolated older people in rural areas
• Growing internet use
Questions?
PART 2: FOCUS ON THE ECONOMY
Growth in employee jobs between 2009 and 2012
• 110,000 employee jobs in South and Vale (2012)
• +4,200 additional jobs since 2009
– South and Vale +4%, England +1%, SE +1%, London +7%
– +1,900 (more) Professional, scientific & technical jobs in South Oxfordshire
– +1,200 (more) Business, admin & support jobs in Vale of White Horse
– -1,100 (fewer) Construction jobs in South and Vale
Didcot + under 100 Abingdon + under 100
Chalgrove +1,600 (inc Monument Park)
Greendown ward +800 Harwell +500 Source: ONS Business
Register and
Employment Survey
Top 3 sectors account for 38% of jobs in South and Vale
Total South and Vale workplace population = 124,000
Workplace population (Census 2011) All usual residents aged 16 to 74 in employment in the area the week before the census
Source: ONS Census
2011 table WP605
Possible to highlight jobs in detail from Census 2011 data
Culham E33038724
TOTAL 1,673 workplace jobs
Professional, scientific and technical
activities 789 (47%)
Public administration and defence;
compulsory social security 321 (19%)
Culham RAL
Rutherford Appleton E33043948
TOTAL 2,097 workplace jobs
Professional, scientific and technical
activities 1,444 (69%)
Education 148 (7%)
Top area for manufacturing in South and Vale
E33038751
TOTAL 1,206 workplace jobs
Manufacturing 431 (36%)
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of
motor vehicles and motor cycles
175 (15%)
Total of 9,119 manufacturing jobs in South and Vale
Above average % of small businesses in South Oxfordshire
Growth in South and Vale business enterprises
Annual change in total
number of active
enterprises
Source: ONS Business demography published Nov 2013
Working age job seeker allowance claimants below 1% and almost at pre-recession levels
People claiming job seeker allowance as percent of
resident population aged 16 to 64
Source: DWP from nomis
May 2014 Vale = 0.8% South = 0.7%
Jan 2008 Vale = 0.5% South = 0.6%
Self employment and home working in rural areas
South Oxfordshire
Self employed Working at
home
Self employment and home working in rural areas
Vale of White Horse
Self employed Working at
home
Clusters of long distance commuting
Residents travelling 30km or more to work as a
percent of residents aged 16 and over in employment
and travelling to work (2011)
Summary – part 2
Signs of a healthy local economy
• +4,200 employee jobs added in South and Vale between 2009 and 2012
• Growth in South and Vale business enterprises
• % of working age job seeker allowance claimants almost at pre-recession levels
Rural areas include home workers AND long distance commuters
Questions?
FINDING OUT MORE..
• Source data can be downloaded from www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk and www.nomisweb.co.uk
• Visualisation tools available on ONS website www.ons.gov.uk/census
• Data for Oxfordshire and visualisation tools at insight.oxfordshire.gov.uk
• District Data Service including analysis of data for South Oxfordshire and Vale of White Horse www.oxford.gov.uk/districtdataservice