source: transnet group planning · groenwater - lime acres 22 51% 38% 34% 38% 41% 43% 44% 46% 49%...

RailPlanning Principles

Match Capacity to demand

Source: Transnet Group Planning

1Installed Capacity

•Operational Capacity =

65% of theoretical

slots

•35% = maintenance, peaks,

operational failures, etc

Projected Demand

•Annual Rail Timeslot

requirements per section forecast

for 30 years

Capacity Utilisation

Determine “Rail-able” portionDetermine “Rail-able” portion

Demand

Capacity= %

Freight Demand Forecast

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0 50 100

150

200

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300

350

400

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850

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950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

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1350

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

Frei

gh

t (M

tpa)

Straight-line distance between MD's (km)

Total Freight on Surface Total Freight on Rail

Rail Addressable MarketShort Haul

>50

% o

f to

tal f

reig

ht v

olum

es




1Installed Capacity


65% of theoretical

slots



Projected Demand



for 30 years


Surface Forecast - all modesSurface Forecast - all modes


Demand

Capacity= %


-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2022

2027

2032

2037

Frei

ght

Tonn

es (

Mill

ions

)

Container/Tons

Automotive

Break Bulk

Dry Bulk

Liquid Bulk

Perishables

Total 2008 Forecast

Assume market share shiftAssume market share shift




1Installed Capacity


65% of theoretical

slots



Projected Demand



for 30 years




Demand

Capacity= %


For all 65 commodities

Addressable Market

Current Market Share

Commodity All

Surf

ace

(Bas

e)

> 1

50 K

m S

urfa

ce

Rai

l Act

ual (

Bas

e)

Rai

l Mar

ket

Shar

e (A

ll)

Rai

l Mar

ket

Shar

e (>

150k

m)

Mar

ket

Shar

e A

mbi

tion

%

Cat

ch-U

p %

MOTOR VEHICLES 1,899,067 1,418,444 227,579 11.3% 16.0% 75% 3%BARLEY 558,181 419,050 293,261 49.6% 70.0% 60% 1%BEVERAGES 12,162,271 8,903,707 515,718 4.0% 5.8% 20% 1%BRICKS 18,137,725 6,157,968 CEMENT 14,976,859 9,057,874 3,056,863 19.3% 33.7% 30% 0%CHROME 7,899,490 2,603,641 2,131,140 25.5% 81.9% 100% 0%CITRUS 987,053 853,980 79,166 7.6% 9.3% 10% 1%COAL MINING EXPORT 63,448,022 63,448,022 63,448,022 100.0% 100.0% 100% 0%CONTAINER TRAFFIC 39,363,980 25,090,479 5,323,302 12.8% 21.2% 75% 3%COPPER 105,960 81,405 402,625 100.0% 100.0% 100% 0%FERTILIZERS AND PESTICIDES 3,039,575 1,201,967 601,566 18.7% 50.0% 50% 0%FOOD AND FOOD PROCESSING 35,932,585 28,118,751 843,047 2.2% 3.0% 15% 1%FERROCHROME 2,847,579 2,803,235 2,170,923 72.0% 77.4% 100% 0%FERROMANGANESE 642,892 592,091 588,910 86.5% 99.5% 100% 0%PETROLEUM REFINERIES AND PRODUCTS OF PETROLEUM/COAL 28,437,259 16,825,673 3,040,743 10.1% 18.1% 25% 2%

Assume efficiency improvementAssume efficiency improvement





1Installed Capacity


65% of theoretical

slots



Projected Demand



for 30 years




Demand

Capacity= %


0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

45-5035-4525-3515-255-151-5

%

Train Length (Wagons)

General Freight Train Configurations

GF - Consolidated

GF - Current

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

188-2000-8

%

Train Length

Coal (South of Ermelo)

Consolidated

Current





1Installed Capacity


65% of theoretical

slots



Projected Demand



for 30 years




Demand

Capacity= %


Convert Rail Demand per commodity to equivalent trains

per day

Convert Rail Demand per commodity to equivalent trains

per day

Assume efficiency improvementAssume efficiency improvement

To determine the number of trains required to move a predetermined amount of freight a train service design is assumed

This service design depends on the route as well as the type of commodity moved

Train service design factors:

Wagon type

Load/wagon (route specific)

Load utilisation

Train length (design)

Train length distribution

Mamathwane - Sishen 6 89% 54% 55% 64% 68% 71% 73% 77% 80% 83% 86% 90% 93% 97% 101% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125%

Sishen - Lohatlha 15 76% 57% 52% 58% 62% 60% 62% 65% 69% 71% 74% 77% 81% 86% 91% 98% 101% 103% 106% 109%

Lohatlha - Beeshoek 18 62% 49% 45% 49% 52% 49% 52% 54% 57% 59% 61% 64% 68% 72% 76% 82% 84% 87% 89% 91%

Beeshoek - Postmasburg 18 61% 47% 41% 46% 49% 51% 53% 55% 58% 60% 63% 66% 69% 74% 79% 85% 87% 89% 92% 94%

Postmasburg - Groenwater 15 75% 58% 51% 56% 60% 63% 65% 68% 72% 74% 78% 81% 86% 91% 97% 105% 108% 111% 113% 116%

Groenwater - Lime Acres 22 51% 38% 34% 38% 41% 43% 44% 46% 49% 51% 53% 55% 58% 61% 65% 70% 72% 74% 76% 78%

Lime Acres - Silverstreams 16 84% 64% 57% 63% 67% 70% 73% 76% 80% 83% 87% 91% 95% 101% 107% 115% 119% 122% 126% 130%

Silverstreams - Ulco 16 89% 69% 61% 67% 71% 74% 77% 81% 85% 88% 92% 97% 102% 107% 114% 122% 126% 130% 134% 138%

Ulco - Barkly West 16 88% 69% 61% 67% 71% 74% 77% 81% 85% 88% 91% 96% 101% 107% 114% 122% 125% 129% 133% 137%

Barkly West - Fieldsview 16 89% 69% 61% 67% 71% 74% 77% 81% 85% 88% 92% 96% 101% 107% 114% 122% 126% 130% 134% 138%

Segment Ops

Slo

ts

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026




1Projected Demand



for 30 years

Capacity UtilisationInstalled Capacity•Operational Capacity =

65% of theoretical

slots



Demand

Capacity= %

This determines where new capacity needs to be built, how much and the timing…

Rail Capacity vs Demand


Network Pressure Map 2007

Network Pressure Map 2017Network Pressure Map 2027Network Pressure Map 2037

Rail Capacity vs Demand


Rail Development PlansInfrastructure Zones

Ore Line

Western & Southern Cape

Eastern Cape & Central Port System

Gauteng Freight Ring & Central Core

Coal line, NATCOR and Eastern port system

Maputo Corridor

Northern System

Sishen

Saldanha

Cape Town

East London

Port ElizabethMosselbaai

Rosmead

Cookhouse

Noupoort

Upington

Hotazel

Springfontein

Queenstown

Blaney

Port Shepstone

Musina

Durban

Kimberley

Steelpoort

Komatipoort

PhalaborwaVaalwater

Lephalale

Veertien Strome

Danskraal

Worcester

Groenbult

Polokwane

Nakop

LESOTHOHalfweg

De Aar

Hutchinson

Beaufort West

Mafikeng

Bethlehem

Belmont

Alicedale

Klerksdorp

Kaapmuiden

Richards BayBloemfontein

Pietermaritzburg

Harrismith

Modimolle

Nelspruit

Vryheid

Ngqura

Maseru

Bitterfontein

Kalbaskraal

Dal Josafat

Stanger

Glencoe

RietvalleiSWAZILAND

Empangeni

Ermelo

Zesfontein

Ogies

Hoedspruit

Roossenekal

Pyramid

CachetHoutheuwel

Lichtenburg

ColignyWelverdiend

Wesrand

RustenburgGreenview Derwent

Belfast

Machadadorp

Iron Ore Line: Profile

Distance 861 km Topography oSemi-desert, descending

to the coast from 1 295 m above sea level at the Sishen mines. Axle loads Operated at 30 t/axle

Ruling Gradient 0,37% loadedTraction 50kV AC

Civil Olifantsrivier Bridge# of lines Single line with crossing

loopsTrain Authorisation

Simmis S colour light signalling Locomotives oClass 9E and 34 Class Diesels

oClass 15 E locomotives being commissionedWagons CR type: max payload of

100 tonsGross tons per train

34 200 tons @ 4km in length

Volumes in 2008/09

36mt export iron ore, 1 mt general freight

Competitiveness Longest heavy haul production trains in the world

End of train @ 4 kilometres

source: transnet group planning · groenwater - lime acres 22 51% 38% 34% 38% 41% 43% 44% 46% 49%...

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