A WORK IN PROGRESS BY:KATIE KRUGER

UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND

I Like Your Style:The State of the Union and Its

Affect on Presidential Job Approval

What is a “good” State of the Union?

People care about the State of the Union A LOT

But why is it important? It’s a reflection on the previous year It outlines the future agenda for the administration It’s a place for the president to show the nation who he is a

leader

But why work so hard on something that might have been considered a constitutional formality? There is an expected benefit to be had from a “good” speech

--- a bump in job approval

Why is a high job approval important?

It makes life easier politically

The job approval taken after the SOTU is thought to be a reflection on the success of the agenda

Presidents use speeches to hide political deficiencies, “spinning a mountain of success where only a molehill exists” (Farnsworth 2009)

Political rhetoric is used to gain acknowledgment of previous accomplishments (Denton 1988)

After the SOTU Change after the SOTU

1953

1965

1972

1980

1986

1992

1998

2004

2010

0

20

40

60

80

Gallup After

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Gallup Diff

Presidential Job Approval

DOES THE CONTENT OF THE STATE OF THE UNION

HAVE AN AFFECT ON PRESIDENTIAL JOB APPROVAL?

Research Question

SOTU CODING

All State of the Union addresses that were publically broadcast from 1953-2010 were coded for the following types of sentences:

Policies and goalsNational Security

International Diplomacy and TradePatriotism

Political Cooperation and Criticism

*Excluded: 1955-60, 1971, 1973, Carter’s 1981 because they were not broadcast to the public.

Eisenhower 1954

Ford 1977

W. Bush 2002

Coding Over Time

1953

1963

1967

1971

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

PolicySecurityDiplomacy/TradePoliticsPatriotism

OLS Regression ResultsConstant = -3.17, 76.94

N = 50

R2 = .13, .31

Values are unadjusted OLS regression coefficients and one-tailed p-values

Change in Job Approval

Job Approval

Policy .074(.042)*

.116(.202)

Security .012(.38)

-.11(.172)

Diplomacy .031(.319)

-.047(.407)

Politics -.027(.308)

-.358(.017)*

Patriotism .063(.328)

-.262(.275)

Divided Gov’t

.733(.287)

-4.53(.132)

Election Yr -1.38(.12)

-1.39(.354

Economy .049(.39)

-1.19(.015)*

What we see

Policy is the most important factor to determining a positive change in job approval rating

Political language, especially in an election climate, has a negative affect on job approval in terms of change and more generally

Job approval data is still inconsistent. Average: 17.5 Days Range: 0 to 52 days

Goals for the Future

Include more addresses, maybe looking beyond the SOTU

I’d like to look more closely at the specific content of the speech and go beyond counts

I’d also like to examine various proportions One category proportionately higher relative to another

Address the weakness of the job approval data used here. It is far too inconsistent to be reliable.

Questions and/or comments?

Thank you

Examples of coded sentences

Policy: I proposed to minimize environmental uncertainties affecting coal development, expand nuclear power

generation, and create an energy independence authority to provide government financial assistance for vital energy programs where private capital is not available. --- Carter 1978

  Security: We will stay on the offense; we will keep up the pressure; and we will deliver justice to our enemies. ---W. Bush

2008 Diplomacy / Trade: We'll work with our trading partners for a new round of negotiations in support of freer world trade, greater

competition, and more open markets. ---Reagan 1984 Politics: Bluntly, I must remind you that we have not made satisfactory progress toward achieving energy independence.

---Ford 1977 And what the American people hope, what they deserve, is for all of us, Democrats and Republicans, to work

through our differences, to overcome the numbing weight of our politics. ---Obama 2010

Patriotism: The American economy is one of the wonders of the world. ---Eisenhower 1954 Forty years ago, and then 20 years ago, two Presidents, one Democrat, one Republican, John F. Kennedy and

Ronald Reagan, advocated tax cuts to, in President Kennedy's words, "get this country moving again. ---W. Bush 2001