SOME QUICK FACTS ABOUT CHINA• 1.2 billion people and shrinking (does it make sense to think of China as a

country or a region?).• Economic growth? 9.5% per year for two decades. Its GDP is a little bigger

than GB, about the size of Germany’s. To put this in perspective China today = California’s GDP.

• Per capita GDP (not PPP) is approximately $1,300 vs. $40K in US • Chinese trade volume = #1, but Germany and the US are right in the

neighborhood… US has a 200 billion trade deficit with China; 40% of our non-oil deficit

• China’s government saves 50% each year, but not for long.• The Chinese military is dramatically expanding, with an emphasis on ships

and subs (including domestic & Russian production); talking about 7x increase in nuclear forces (<50 can hit US now)

• Public opinion polling around the world generally shows that China is more respected than the US. Why?

SOME BIG QUESTIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS ABOUT

CHINA’S RISE• Why is China rising (perhaps we should say that the

west is falling)?• Should we care if China becomes Asia’s leading

power? What about India?• Is China a hostile (to the US, western values, or to

everyone) power? Should we contain it?• What can China tell us about the relationships

among democracy, limited govt., and growth? What about justice and human rights priorities?

VARIOUS LENSES FOR UNDERSTANDING CHINESE POLITICAL BEHAVIOR IN THE 20TH C

• First image: Mao vs. Deng vs. Hu and bureaucratic authoritarianism

• Second image:– Totalitarianism– A different type of communism– State capitalism, bureaucratic authoritarianism– Nationalism

• Third image 1: China as a regional and potentially global hegemon that will balance/challenge US hegemony

• Third image 2: China as a third way in intl. politics that combines some aspects of idealism with realism (neorealism)

WHAT CAN CHINESE HISTORY TELL US ABOUT ITS FUTURE BEHAVIOR?

• 2000 years of dynasty & purposeful isolationism• 16th C.: European Jesuits and traders• The Opium Wars with the British (1839-42): Hong Kong, ports,

extraterritoriality• US occupation & the Chinese Exclusion Act (1880)• Defeat by Japan in 1895; The 1900 Boxer rebellion; & the fall of the Qing

dynasty• Sun Yat Sen (1912-13): The western path = chaos• Civil war (1927-1948): Nationalists vs. Communists• Japanese occupation of Manchuria (1931) & the failure of the League of

Nations

• The UN (1947), the revolution (1949) & the failure to join the Security Council

WHAT CAN RECENT CHINESE HISTORY TELL US ABOUT ITS FUTURE BEHAVIOR

FP Under Chinese Communism• The CCP: Neither Marxist nor Leninist• The Sino-Soviet split: Mao’s (1949-76) 3rd World

Marxism vs. Russian authoritarianism• The Cultural Revolution (1966)• 1950: Macarthur’s mistake, the Korean War, & we

threaten to use the bomb• 1962: Sino-Indian border war• 1964: The Chinese bomb and restraint• 1971: Nixon and the Security Council…Finally the

real China gets a seat

THE CLASH OF EMPIRES? Why might conflict be likely even if both sides say that they

want to avoid it?• Realism’s logic, security dilemmas, & allies• China’s already upping it’s military presence: Nuclear

weapons, 29 subs + 10 being built, professionalization • The US’s stated policy is not let China close the gap; our

relations with India• Economic strategies—esp. related to US deficits—will be

increasingly at odds• Trade and domestic pressures: US nationalism?• American exceptionalism, liberal interventionism, and

human rights• Internal pressures and the CCP: Chinese nationalism may be

the only way the CCP stays in power

Why might the US & China get along just fine• China’s CCP can’t afford to be belligerent: 10%

annual growth, but its econ = 1/3 Japan’s, 1/7 US’s; China’s GDP per cap = $US 1300 vs US= $41K

• China’s needs US global economic leadership• The liberal argument: Economic interdependence =

peace (esp. w/ comp. adv and nondiscrim policies)• Neither China nor US is truly imperial• US and China’s FP goals are complementary: – What the Cold War taught us about burden sharing and

institutional rules– Shared interest in the SQ: the Security Council and free

trade: China’s is carefully managing its rise– Shared problems: terrorism & the environment