Somali Region Early warning

department ,Disaster concept &

history of disaster22 – 23 March 2012

March 22 -23

Jijiga

OVERVIEW

1. Introductory note on disasters

2. Overview of Disaster in Ethiopia

3. Hazard trends in the Somali Region

4. Learning from the past

5. Situation scenarios in 2011

INTRODUCTION NOTE ON DISASTERS

Cause human tragedy – Deaths, displacement & suffering

Cause crippling economic losses – costing countries millions

Hamper development – shifting of resources & logistical

disruptions, halting progress of dev. projects

Increase future vulnerability to disasters

Increase dependence on humanitarian assistance

Increase social unrest & reduce political stability

OVERVIEW OF DISASTERS IN ETHIOPIA

No of events: 1980-2010No of people killed: 313,486

No of people affected: 57,382,354

Average affected per year: 1,851,044

Ecomomic Damage (US$ X 1,000):

31,700

Ecomomic Damage per year (US$ X 1,000):

1,023

OVERVIEW OF DISASTERS IN ETHIOPIA

Number of Disasters Reported

OVERVIEW OF DISASTERS IN ETHIOPIA

Top 10 Disasters – Affected peopleDisaster Date Affected Remark

Drought 2003 12,600,000

Drought 1983 7,750,000

Drought 1987 7,000,000

Drought 1989 6,500,000

Drought 2008 6,400,000

Drought 2009 6,200,000

Drought 1999 4,900,000

Drought 2005 2,600,000

Drought 1997 986,200

Flood 2006 361,600

OVERVIEW OF DISASTERS IN ETHIOPIA

Killed by Disaster Type

OVERVIEW OF DISASTERS IN ETHIOPIA

No affected & Killed by Disaster Type

HAZARD TRENDS IN THE SOMALI REGION

Major hazards in SRS: Droughts, diseases , Floods & Conflict

Drought is historically the biggest killer, followed by diseases

SRS is one of the most prone areas to droughts & conflicts

Droughts have grown in frequency over the last 2 decades

Recovery period is reduced, increasing vulnerability

Numbers of IDP & destitute groups are growing over time

Dependence on humanitarian assistance is therefore growing

Critical trend that has serious implications for Dev’t & security

HAZARD TRENDS IN THE SOMALI REGION

SRS Droughts 1999-2011Year Severity Affected areas

1999-2000 Very severe 7 Deyr receiving zones

2002-2003 Very severe Shinile & FIK

2004 Moderate Gode

2005 Severe Gode, Liban & Afder

2007 Severe Gode, Fik, Korahe, Warder & Dagahbur

2008 Very severe & deyr receiving zones

2009 Severe/ very severe All the Region

LEARNING FROM THE PAST One of the basic objectives of this workshop is to help us predict the

likely social and economic consequences of 2011 gu failure

One way of predicting the future outcome of such an event is to look

the outcome of a similar event in the past

Which drought year we need to choose for analysis?

The most similar in asset levels, market situation , migration pattern,

disease prevalence and levels of stress

The most likely drought that comes into picture using such criteria is

that of 2007-2008

LEARNING FROM THE PASTComparison of the drought situations of 2007/08 & 20110/11

Indicator 2007/08 2010/11

Rainfall deyr rains failed deyr rains failed

Needy people 1.6 million 1.7 million

Livestock Mortality at March of 08

Mortality is just starting

Production Crops/livestock failed in 7 zones

Crops/livestock failed in 7 zones

ToT Shoat = 50 -65 kg Average shoat =50kg

Migration high High

Disease No outbreak No outbreak

LEARNING FROM THE PASTComparison of the drought situations of 2007/08 & 20110/11Indicator 2008 2011

Rainfall very poor Gu in9 zones

Below normal rains predicted ?

Needy people 1.9 million Possible upward trend?

Livestock High mortality in the hagaa

Likely to happen in the absence of gu rains

Production Crops failed in most areas

May perform poorly

ToT Shoat = 23 - 40 kg Average shoat=?

Migration Large scale Likely to increase further?

Disease Increase prevalence ?

LEARNING FROM THE PASTNDVI in May 2008

LEARNING FROM THE PASTNDVI in May 2008

LEARNING FROM THE PAST

LEARNING FROM THE PAST

LEARNING FROM THE PAST

LEARNING FROM THE PAST

SITUATION SCENARIOS IN 2011

SITUATION SCENARIOS IN 2012

Basic current Facts

Rains failed in seven zones led to

Emergency water tankering for around 1 million people

Emergency food requirement for 1.7 people

Likely increase of numbers and needs in the months ahead

Livestock in the deyr areas is facing dire feed & water scarcity

Animals failing to trek to water points & grazing areas already reported

among the nugul species

A failure of the coming gu rains will be a decisive blow for both

SITUATION SCENARIOS IN 2011

Possible scenarios cases

Worst case scenario – complete failure of rains

Mid level case scenario – rains perform inadequately but rains do

not fail completely – most likely scenario

Best case scenario – rains perform normal to good

Assumption – no large scale disease outbreaks and dramatic

changes in other food security and livelihood parameters beyond

the influence of rainfall.

SITUATION SCENARIOS IN 2011

Possible scenarios cases

Details of each scenario case will need to be developed

Its implications for response have to be clearly defined and

quantified

Resource requirements and availability have to be identified in

each case

The gap and potential sources and mechanisms of bridging that

gap need to be also outlined.

Thank you