Solid Earth and Natural Hazards Program

Progress and Plans

Solid Earth and Natural Hazards Program

Progress and Plans

NASA’s Earth Science EnterpriseNASA’s Earth Science Enterprise

Prof. Thomas Herring and Dr. John L. LaBrecqueMIT Manager SENH Program

Based on November 27, 2001 Presentation by John LaBrecque

Prof. Thomas Herring and Dr. John L. LaBrecqueMIT Manager SENH Program

Based on November 27, 2001 Presentation by John LaBrecque

NASA’s Earth Science Enterprise Pioneers Scientific Observation of the Earth

Our Mission:

Develop a scientific understanding of the Earth system and its response to natural and human-induced changes to enable improved prediction of climate, weather, and natural hazards for present and future generations

Our Mission:

Develop a scientific understanding of the Earth system and its response to natural and human-induced changes to enable improved prediction of climate, weather, and natural hazards for present and future generations

As a Result, Science Now Views the Earth as a Dynamic System

Forces acting on the Earth

system

Forces acting on the Earth

system

Earth system response

Earth system response

IMPACTS

Feedback

Of the total forcing of the climate system, 40% is due to the direct effect of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and 60% is from feedback effects, such as

increasing concentrations of water vapor as temperature rises.

Of the total forcing of the climate system, 40% is due to the direct effect of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and 60% is from feedback effects, such as

increasing concentrations of water vapor as temperature rises.

Ken Hood, Perthshire Farms, Mississippi

Healthy crop

Stressed crop

Applications Theme Areas

• Disaster Management– Natural Hazards– Environment & Health

• Resource Management– Renewable &

Non-renewable

• Environmental Quality– Air and water quality– Land use/Land change

• Community Growth– Transportation Infrastructure– Quality of life in communities

Applications Thrusts

• Aiming at partnerships to apply Earth Science data and technology to high priority national needs

– Flood plain mapping with FEMA

– Highway siting with DOT

– Aviation safety (topography and atmosphere) with FAA

– Precision agriculture with USDA

– Precision global navigation with Industry and DoD

– Improved weather prediction with NOAA

– Water & other natural resource management with USGS & Statel/local governments

Science: How is the Earth Changing and What Are the Consequences for Life on Earth?

• How is the global Earth system changing?

• What are the primary causes of change in the Earth system?

• How does the Earth system respond to natural and human-induced changes?

• What are the consequences of changes in the Earth system for human civilization?

• How well can we predict future changes to the Earth system?

What is Required?

• Research

– Sponsors competitively selected research, analysis and modeling via open solicitations structured around the science question

– Supports basic Earth science R&A and related EOS and other mission science teams, the suborbital science program, and the interdisciplinary research investigations.

• Observations (Development)

– Systematic measurement missions to detect trends against the background variability in the Earth system

– Exploratory measurement missions to examine lesser understood but important Earth system processes (particularly in forcings and responses)

• Technology

– Technology development and demonstration to reduce the cost and enhance the capability of future missions and data product capabilities

• Applications Demonstrations

– Enhancing the near term socioeconomic benefit of NASA’s Earth Science investment to the American taxpayer.

– Focus on meeting the needs of State and Local governments and partnerships with other Federal agencies (e.g. FEMA, EPA, USDA, NOAA)

Dr. Bernard Minster Dr. Byron TapleyDr. Walter C. Pitman, III Dr. Mark Simons Dr. Mary Lou C. Zoback Dr. Andrea Donnellan Dr. Alan Chave Dr. Tom Herring

Dr. Jeremy Bloxham Dr. Eric Rignot Dr. Donald Turcotte Dr. Raymond Jeanloz Dr. Victor R. Baker Dr. Ben Chao Dr. Alan Gillespie Dr. Douglas Burbank

Solid Earth Science Working Group

Chairman: Dr. Sean Solomon

“To guide the science community in the development of a recommended long-term vision and strategy for Solid Earth Science at NASA”

Web Page: http://gaia.hq.nasa.gov/nsewg/index.cfm http:/solidearth.jpl.nasa.gov

e-mail: seswg@hq.nasa.gov

– Topography and Surface Change - -How is the Earth’s surface being transformed and how can such information be used to predict future changes?

• What is the nature of deformation at plate boundaries, and what are the implications for earthquake hazards?

• How do tectonic, geomorphic, hydrologic, and biologic processes interact to shape the landscape and produce natural hazards?

• What are the interactions among ice masses, oceans, and the solid Earth and their implications for sea level change?

– Earth Dynamics - -What are the motions of the Earth and the Earth’s interior, and what information can be inferred about Earth's internal processes?

• How do magmatic systems evolve, and under what conditions do volcanoes erupt?

• What are the dynamics of the mantle, and how does the Earth’s surface respond?

• What are the dynamics of the Earth's magnetic field and its interactions with the Earth system?

Strategic Solid Earth Science Research GoalsStrategic Solid Earth Science Research Goals

...To enable timely and affordable delivery of Earth Science data and information to users

Technology Emphasis Areas

ComputingGeospatial

Earth System Science in the future will leverage three ongoing technology revolutions:

Communications

Systematic Missions - Observation of Key Earth System InteractionsSystematic Missions - Observation of Key Earth System Interactions

Terra AuraAquaLandsat 7

Exploratory - Explore Specific Earth System Processes and Parameters and Demonstrate Technologies

Exploratory - Explore Specific Earth System Processes and Parameters and Demonstrate Technologies

GRACE

PICASSO

Cloudsat

QuikSCAT

EO-1

ICEsat Jason-1

SRTM

VCL

EO-3

We Will Examine Practically Every Aspect of the Earth System From Space in This Decade

SESWG Calls for“InSAR Everywhere All the Time”

1994 Northridge EarthquakeAt L-band (JERS)

• ~1 mm-accuracy with <100 m spatial resolution

• 4-D Vector strain measurements • Dense time series (image archive)• Ability to provide measurements in

vegetated areas

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GeoSyncSAR

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Interagency Collaboration Interagency Collaboration for Multidisciplinary Sciencefor Multidisciplinary ScienceInteragency Collaboration Interagency Collaboration

for Multidisciplinary Sciencefor Multidisciplinary Science

EarthScope:The NASA View

• EarthScope affirms the value of NASA developed Space Geodetic Techniques (e.g. GPS, SLR, VLBI, InSAR, LIDAR) developed under the Crustal Dynamics Program, DOSE, and SENH during the past twenty-five years.

• EarthScope is an opportunity to significantly advance NASA’s goals in natural hazards research, mitigation, and disaster management.

• EarthScope offers a unique opportunity to apply new space-based observations within a well instrumented natural laboratory for geodynamics research.

• NASA’s role in EarthScope can be expanded beyond InSAR to include advanced space-based and airborne sensor technologies with a strong geodynamic modeling component.

EarthScope is a broad consortium of solid Earth scientists supported by an alliance of federal agencies -

NSF, NASA, and USGS-

EarthScope is a broad consortium of solid Earth scientists supported by an alliance of federal agencies -

NSF, NASA, and USGS-

•SAR, Lidar, Hyperspectral & Multispectral Imaging Data•GPS Science, Technology, Orbits, Algorithms, Processing•Terrestrial Reference Frame

NASA

NASA’s EarthScope Participation

Lead Agency

NSF

NSF

NSF

NASA•Mission Design and Implementation•Processing Software and Systems•Science Support

•Event Triggering and Regional Targeting•Identification of Fault Processes•Structure of Lithosphere-Aesthenosphere-Mantle

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Increase Earth System Understanding Natural Hazards Forecasting and Mitigation

PBO and InSAR will generate near Synoptic Views of Earth Dynamics

InSAR Provides Spatially Continuous Measurements

InSAR Provides Spatially Continuous Measurements

GPS Provides Time Continuous Deformation Measurement

GPS Provides Time Continuous Deformation Measurement

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INSAR can Detect Slow Deformation Processes

such as Subsidence Related to Fluid

Extraction and Aseismic Creep.

Groundwater Withdrawal Pomona,

CA

InSAR Measures Important but Imperceptible Surface Changes

InSAR Measures Important but Imperceptible Surface Changes

Amelung and Jonsson

InSAR Measures Unreported Volcanic Activity

Darwin: + 22 cm

Wolf: +10 cm

Sierra Negra: + 250 cm

0.5 Billion people live near volcanoes, many of which are not monitored and have unknown surface deformation and hazard potential

LIDAR enables centimeter scale measurements of the land surface

beneath vegetation

Geodetic Imaging Has Arrived

Precision Practical Real Time Navigation Enables It All

InSAR enables sub-centimeter scaleland surface change detection

beneath vegetation

InSAR enables sub-centimeter scaleland surface change detection

beneath vegetation

Long Valley, CAGila National Park

Objective: Digital terrain data of the Earth Landmass. • One arc-sec (30 meter) posting• 10 meter relative height resolution• 16 meter absolute height resolution• Mosaickable terrain-corrected geocoded images

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SRTM Mapped 80% of the Earth’s Land Surface

San Andreas Fault at Lancaster, CA Looking NWSRTM with Landsat Overlay

NASA’s Global Geodetic Networks Enable Global Millimeter Scale Measurements within a Stable Terrestrial Reference Frame

Very Long BaselineInterferometry

(VLBI)

Satellite LaserRanging (SLR)

Global PositioningSystem (GPS)

•Polar Motion •Length of Day•Inertial Reference•30 Station Network

Network Organization:International VLBI Service

• Satellite Positioning < 3 cm• Time Variable Gravity• Earth Center of Mass• 37 Station Network

Network Organization:International Laser Ranging Service

• Satellite Positioning <10 cm• Polar motion• Site velocity•>250 Station Network

Network Organization:.International GPS Service

JPL processing centerrunning IGDG

Global AirborneInSAR

Internet

Iridium and ImarsatBroadcast

Capability JPL’s IGDG Un-augmentedGPS

Others(WADGPSservices)

Global Yes Yes NoSeamless Yes Yes No

Coverage:

Usable in space Yes Yes NoKinematicapplications

0.1 m horizontal0.2 m vertical

5 m > 1 mAccuracy:

Orbitdetermination

0.01 – 0.05 m (goal) 1 m N/A

Dissemination method Internet/broadcast Broadcast BroadcastTargeted users Dual-frequency Dual-frequency Single-freq.

Revolutionary new capability: decimeter real time positioning, anywhere, anytime

For more info look uphttp://gipsy.jpl.nasa.gov/igdg

Precision Global Real Time Navigation EnablesPractical Airborne & Spaceborne InSAR

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Internet

NASA’s Global Real Time NetworkNASA’s Global Real Time Network

Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Modeling and Forecasting

• NASA/ESE supports through the HPCC program an advanced modeling effort based upon the precepts of geocomplexity and the integration of space geodetic, remote sensing, seismic, and geologic data for natural hazards research and disaster management

• Goal is to understand the earthquake process through a program of new observations, numerical simulations, and theory

• Understanding these data will require advanced new computational methodologies to simulate the physical processes involved

• The Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) component of EARTHSCOPE relies in part on systematic observations of earth deformation and strain via GPS, InSAR, and Borehole Strainmeters

• Numerical simulations indicate that the data obtained by EARTHSCOPE / PBO will have the resolving power to reveal extremely detailed, critical new information about the dynamics of the multi-scale, space-time processes associated with earthquakes.

• In any observational campaign, the development of simulation technology for complex nonlinear geosystems must go hand-in-hand with the observations if the maximum information gain is to be realized.

• New observations together with new results from simulations suggest that space-time patterns and correlations are the keys to understanding the physics of complex geosystems such as the earthquake process.

EARTHSCOPE contributions to Earthquake Volcanic Eruption Modeling and Forecasting (con’t)

ØRSTEDØRSTED GRACEGRACE

SAC-CSAC-C CHAMPCHAMP

LAUNCHEDFEB 23,1999

LAUNCHEDFEB 23,1999

INTERNATIONALGEOPOTENTIAL FIELD

&GPS REMOTE

SENSINGMISSIONS

INTERNATIONALGEOPOTENTIAL FIELD

&GPS REMOTE

SENSINGMISSIONS

LAUNCHEDJULY 15,2000

LAUNCHEDNOV 21, 2000

LAUNCHEDMAR 5, 2002

Oceanography: Measurements of Gravity + Radar AltimetryAbsolute Surface CurrentsDeep Ocean Currents & Mass TransportSteric Component of Long Term

Sea Level Change Mass and Energy Flux

Continental Hydrology: Measurements of Gravity + in-situ dataEvapo-transpiration & Ground Water ChangesSnow Loads

Glaciology: Measurements of Gravity + Ice-Sheet AltimetryPolar Ice Sheet Mass Balance

Solid Earth Sciences & Geodesy: Measurements of Gravity + in-situ dataMantle & Lithospheric Density VariationsPrecise Positioning and reference frame maintenance

GRACE Will Track Monthly Changes in Mass Distribution within the

Hydrosphere, Atmosphere, and Lithosphere

Weather

TODAY Goals for 2010

3-Day forecast at 93%*

7 Day forecast at 62%*

3 day rainfall forecast not achievable

Hurricane landfall +/-400Km at 2-3 days

Air quality day by day

6-12 month seasonal prediction experimental; achieved an understanding of El Nino mechanics

Decadal climate prediction with coarse models and significant uncertainties in forcing and response factors

Demonstrate centimeter-level measurement of land deformation

Accurate characterization of long-term tectonic motions, but no short-term earthquake forecast capability

Accurate characterization of volcanic activity, but no long-term prediction accuracy

5-Day forecast at >90%*

7-10 Day forecast at 75%*

3 day rainfall forecast routine

Hurricane landfall +/-100Km at 2-3 days

Air quality forecast at 2 days

6-12 month seasonal prediction routine;12-24 months experimental

10 year climate forecasts experimental; moderate to high confidence in forcing & response factors

Continuous monitoring of surface deformation in vulnerable regions with millimeter accuracy

Improved temporal dimension of earthquake & volcanic eruption forecasts

Improve post-eruption hazard assessment

Climate

Natural Hazards

* Accuracy refers to sea level pressure forecasts over Northern Hemisphere during winter.

Enabling Earth System Prediction

Summary

• We had the most successful year in the 25 year history of Earth science at NASA. We are enabling unprecedented views and understanding of the Earth system

• We must fulfill our commitments to the Nation by completing successfully the current phase of our program

• ESE has a plan for the next decade that the Administration has agreed to fund. We need to move aggressively to implement this plan, answer the science questions, and provide those answers in forms useful to the Nation

• ESE continues to rely on its partners in other agencies, in industry, and in academia for mission success