solar energy in the garden city - wordpress.com · 2017-05-20 · solar energy in the garden city....

SERIS is a research institute at the National University of Singapore (NUS). SERIS is sponsored by the National University ofSingapore (NUS) and Singapore’s National Research Foundation (NRF) through the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB).

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Solar Energy in the Garden City

Eddy BlokkenBusiness Development ManagerSolar Energy Research Institute of Singapore (SERIS)National University of Singapore (NUS)

Science in the CaféMay 24, 2017


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Agenda

Brief introduction to SERIS

Basics on photovoltaics (PV)

Global technology and market developments

Case Study: Singapore


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Founded in 2008; focuses on applied solar energy research

Part of the National University of Singapore (NUS)

Rapid growth (now > 200 people and > 6000 m2 of space)

State-of-the-art laboratories R&D focus is on solar cells, PV

modules and PV systems Specialised in professional services

for the PV industry ISO 9001 & ISO 17025* certified

(* PV Module Testing Lab)

SERISSolar Energy Research Institute of Singapore


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Main R&D areas of SERIS

Solar cells: Silicon wafer solar

cells (various cell architectures)

Tandem solar cells on silicon (e.g. GaAs, perovskites)

Characterisation & simulation

PV systems: PV system technology PV system monitoring Quality assurance of

PV systems (incl. simulations)

Solar potential & energy meteorology

PV grid integration

PV modules: Module development Module testing

(indoor & outdoor) Module certification Characterisation and

simulation


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Agenda






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Renewable Energy

Tidal & Wave

Energy

Biomass & Pellets

Bio-fuel

WindPhotovoltaicsSolar Thermal

Solar Energy

Geo-thermal

Small Hydro-power

Renewable energy is derived from natural processes that are replenished constantly. …and others


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Solar Energy

Sun => Heat (=> Steam => Turbine => Generator => Electricity)

Sun => Electricity

Classic ElectricityGeneration: replace oil, nuclear, gas, coal by sun

Same technology that enables internet &iPhone

-> semiconductors

Solar Thermal Photovoltaics


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-

+

front contact

rear contact

photon absorber,p-silicon

n-silicon contact- + junction

antireflective coating

+-

How does photovoltaics work?

Si


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Modular build-up of a PV system

• Cells are extremely breakable and moisture sensitive• Modules encapsulate cells to give mechanical strength,

protection from moisture and still allow maximal light to the cell• Modules are building blocks for larger systems, allowing the

same product used from small rooftops to utility scale systems


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(feed-in tariff)

Solar System: Residential

Small residential systems:• Inverter transforms DC to AC and synchronizes with the grid• Feed-in tariff: all electricity generated sold to grid• Net metering: grid functions as super-efficient battery• Alternatively: install batteries to increase self-usage

(net metering)


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Solar System: Utility scale

Utility scale systems:• Largest grid connected system today 850MWp (Cn - completed 2017)• Fixed, single axis or double axis systems• CPV (concentrated PV) has to be on double axis tracker & cloudless


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Energy Flow

The Grid

The electricity grid:• In the past hierarchical

system with big sources and many sinks

• With renewable energy distributed generation is possible

• With renewable energy intermittence needs to be managed

Energy Flow


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Smart grids – management of intermittence

PV generation

Matching demand andgeneration: Demand side management Control of electricity

generation from solar,wind, co-generation, etc.

Forecasting of: Electricity demand Electricity generation from

renewables(“energy meteorology”)

Basic grid equation : energy generation = energy need (load)

load

Non-PVgeneration

DSM

DSM: Demand Side Management


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Smart gridsMerging of different power sources (German case study)

source: www.solarserver.de/solarmagazin/anlagejanuar2008_e.html


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After IoT will we have PVoT?Will transparent solar power our world?

Technology exists….

..but• Most applications have not

enough surface• transparency = low output• technology unstable• RoI not feasible yet

Maybe in 10 or 20 years?

(Sunpartner)


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Agenda






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Photovoltaic electricity generationPhotovoltaics (PV): Direct conversion of solar energy to

electrical energy via solar cells

Advantages: Clean energy, energy payback

between 1 and 2 years Uses an inexhaustible

renewable energy source Modular (from mW to GW) Very low safety risks Reliable; low maintenance Also suited for developing

countries


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Market shares of PV technologies

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10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

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1994

1996

1998

2000

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2004

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2008

2010

2012

2014

PV Technology share (Relative)

Multi-Si (p-type)

Mono-Si (p-type)

Mono-Si (n-type)

Thin Film (CIGS & CdTe)

Others

Ref.: F., Data from Navigant Consulting 2008 report (1980-1998), March issues of Photon Ivan Mierlonternational (199

40 30 20 10 0 10 20

199319951997199920012003200520072009201120132015

Total Market Installed (GW)

Multi-Si (p-type)Mono-Si (p-type)Mono-Si (n-type)Thin Film (CIGS & CdTe)Others

Source: technology: Ref.: F., Data from Navigant Consulting 2008 report (1980-1998), March issues of Photon Ivan Mierlonternational (1999-2009), IHS Q4-2 Capacity: IEA - PVPS - assumption: utilisation over all technologies is equivalent

PV Technology Share (Absolute -GW)


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Other Photovoltaic Technologies• III-V: i.e. GaAs – developed technology, but too expensive for

mainstream market, applicable for space and military• a-Si thin film: efficiency too low and CAPEX too high for current

market situation. Had flash life when poly-Si was 20x more expensive than today

• Organic PV: lending technology from organic electronics and OLED. Still exploring why it works… (>5y)

• Perovskites: inorganic, toxic, unstable, dissolves in water, … but record efficiency increases (>10y, probably in tandem cells)

• Dye-sensitized: inorganic, and pushed out by perovskites (ever?)

• Quantum dot cells: still explorative, production cost and repeatability(>>10y)

• Tandem cells/modules: multi-junction cells handle each a part of spectrum. Could move modules in to efficiencies of >30%! (>10y)


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Other Photovoltaic Technologies

Multi silicon Si wafer: 21.9%Thin Film (CdTe & CIGS): 22%Mono silicon wafer homojunction cells: 25%Mono silicon wafer heterojunction cells: 26%

But all on sub-industrial size!


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Photovoltaic market The progress with the deploy-

ment of PV is breathtaking

PV poised to become a major source of global energy

2016 was the best year ever for PV (75 GWp added)

Cumulative PV installations beyond 300 GWp in 2016

In 2020, PV production rate will be close to100 GWp/a

Lots of room for ongoing technical innovations across the entire PV value chain (from materials to systems)

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

ANN

UAL P

V IN

STAL

LATI

ON

S (G

W/A

)

50%/a

15%/a

1TW/a

Source: IEA/PVPS


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Asia-Pacific is the global growth market

Source: IEA


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The “price-learning curve” of PV

Source: Navigant Consulting, EuPD, IHS, pvXchange. Graph: PSE AG 2014

Mod

ule

pric

e(in

flatio

n ad

just

ed €

2013

/Wp)

Learning rate in PV industry (since 1980): Each time the cumu-lative production doubled, the PV module price (in $/Wp) went down by 20%

Cumulative production (GWp)

Swanson's law


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Efficiency brings cost down fastest

Source: Trina Solar, 2013


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Data source: IEA PVPS Trends 2016 in Photovoltaic Applications

Overview of global policy frameworksFeed-in Tariff (FiT) is the dominant market incentives and enablers

(Singapore)


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Agenda






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Renewable energy potential in S’pore

no major river system, calm sea, no big height difference

waste-to-energy plants already exploited

no significantwind resources (average ~ 2 m/s)

?

?

?

?

?

limited land to pursue large-scale bio-energy

low prospectforgeothermal

PV most promising…


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Renewable energy potential in S’poreThe potential of most renewable energies in Singapore is limited: Hydropower is not feasible as SG lacks a major river system Wind energy is not feasible as SG does not have good wind

resources (average wind speed is < 2 m/s) Large-scale bioenergy is unfeasible due to the scarcity and high

cost of land The prospects for geothermal are low The sea surrounding SG is too calm to give much benefits from

wave or tidal power

However: Singapore receives lots of solar energy throughout the year

(~1630 kWh per m2 per year, or, equivalently, one barrel of oil per m2 per year)

Typical solar power during daytime (10 am - 4 pm): ~500 MW per km2 or, equivalently, 350 GW for the main island of SG (~700 km2)

For comparison: SG’s electric grid has a peak demand of 6.940 MW


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Solar PV 2016 in Singapore

Data source: EMA


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Singapore is space restricted……but this has never stopped us!


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Floating PV SystemsWorld’s largest floating solar PV test-bedTotal capacity: 1MWpNo. of floating systems: 10Water surface covered by PV: 11,000m2Grid connected since: January 2017Owner: PUBOperated by: SERIS/NUSAn initiative from: EDB SingaporeAnnual expected output: 1,286,000 kWh/a


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Floating PV Systems


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Floating PV SystemsYoutube: search “floating seris”


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Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE)

Total life cycle cost

Total lifetime energy productionLCOE* =

Up-frontinvestment

Irradiance(kwh/m2) x

*net present value figure, all input factors are annually discounted by the project hurdle rate (e.g. average weighted cost of capital)

+ O&M +Loan

Payment +/- Tax +/-Residual

value+ Insurance

-Annual degra-

dation rateInitial energy yield

(kWh/kWp)Performance

Ratio (%) =


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System size: 1 MWp, System price: 1,300 SGD/kWp

Total investment: SGD ~1.3 million (of which equity ~0.5 million) 60% debt finance, 2% over risk-free rate, 10 years at 4% 10% equity cost, 17% tax rate, 6% discount rate 80% performance ratio, average irradiance of ~1,608 kWh/m2 (P75) First year energy yield: ~1,286 kWh/kWp

1.0% degradation rate p.a., 20 years operational life 0.3% insurance cost p.a. (in % of total investment cost) Cost inflation 2% p.a. Annual operating and maintenance expense: 10 SGD/kWp

Inverter warranty extension cost at 25%, 45% and 60% of prevailing inverter price factored in every 5th year, respectively (increasing with the average age of the inverters)

LCOE = 10.9 SGD cents per kWh (pre-tax)

Example: 1MWp industrial roof


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LCOE Sensitivity analysisMost critical LCOE parameters are discount rate and durability


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SERIS’ meteorological stations networkExpansion of spatial resolution is envisioned


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Meteorological measurement inputsExample of SERIS’ remote meteorological station

Ambient temperature/humidity

Air pressure

Global/diffuse irradiance (pyranometer)

Wind speed/direction

Global irradiance (silicon sensor)


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SERIS’ live solar irradiance mapAvailable at www.solar-repository.sg

http://www.solar-repository.sg/


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SERIS’ sky camera network8 cameras already deployed for cloud motion purposes


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Future potential? Solar Photovoltaic Roadmap

published in 2014 by Singapore Government (drafted by SERIS)

Projecting growing PV installations from currently 130 MW to several GW within the next 13 years.

Two scenarios: Baseline scenario Accelerated scenario Singapore SportsHub -

~700 kW of PV (2014)


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Possible cumulative installed capacity Maximum capacity, given the assessed inland space.

Licensed conventional generation capacity, Singapore Jan 2017: 128 GW


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Possible PV electricity contribution to Singapore’s electricity demand in 2050, 6 scenarios

E1110 TWh

E280 TWh

E350 TWh

BAS 6% 9% 14%

ACC 14% 19% 30%

Assumed energy scenarios for 2050: E1: Energy demand growing at a constant rate of 2.5% p.a.,

proportional to expected long-term average GDP growth(110 TWh by 2050)

E2: Energy consumption under additional energy efficiency measures (80 TWh)

E3: Energy demand following strong energy efficiency efforts (50 TWh, i.e. electricity demand remains constant until 2050)


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Future cost of solar electricityResults from LCOE calculations (levelised cost of electricity)

PV grid integration adds to this cost and has to be assessed separately, using a combination of: Forecasting of PV power output Grid codes for PV grid integration Load management Storage solutions Increasing fast-reacting reserves Grid enhancements

Future LCOE of solar PV electricity in Singaporein [SGD-cents/kWh], with 4%1 cost of capital

Year 2012 2020 2030 2050BAS 19 12 10 8ACC 19 11 8 7

1) Cost of capital for Singapore government agencies

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Today already less than 10.9 SGD-cents/kWh


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The future is bright for PV in Singaporeand SE Asia…


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Information on PV in Singapore- National Solar Repository

www.solar-repository.sgInformation on specific PV systems, irradiation forecasting in Singapore, market evolutions and best practice

- Singapore Solar Photovoltaic Roadmapwww.nccs.gov.sg/sites/nccs/files/Roadmap_Solar_20140729.pdf

Roadmap from Singapore government on how solar should evolve in Singapore. Views on market size up to 30% of electricity need, technology advancements needed to implement this view, and impact on LCOE

- Youtube: search “floating seris”

http://www.solar-repository.sg/

https://www.nccs.gov.sg/sites/nccs/files/Roadmap_Solar_20140729.pdf


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Thank you for your attention!

More information at www.seris.sg

[email protected]

http://www.seris.sg/

solar energy in the garden city - wordpress.com · 2017-05-20 · solar energy in the garden city....

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