Solar Activities and Halloween Storms Ahmed Hady Astronomy Department Cairo University, Egypt

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<ul><li> Slide 1 </li> <li> Solar Activities and Halloween Storms Ahmed Hady Astronomy Department Cairo University, Egypt </li> <li> Slide 2 </li> <li> 1-Historical study of the last twelve solar cycles and its effects on Earths climate 2- Descriptive studies of the high energetic storms during the last three solar cycles &amp; its effects on earth s atmosphere, and October 2009, Halloween Storms. 3- Analytical studies Geomagnetic storms of the earths atmosphere 4 -The global Earths temperature variation during the last two thousand years </li> <li> Slide 3 </li> <li> Importance of the Sun for life on Earth has long been recognized From the beginning of the life </li> <li> Slide 4 </li> <li> In the ancient Egyptian civilization, the solar disk has been proposed like divinity. </li> <li> Slide 5 </li> <li> Observation of the solar sunpots since more than 4 century Galileo, Spring 1611 1673 </li> <li> Slide 6 </li> <li> Solar cycle ~11 years Migration of the spots from midlatitudes to the equator during the sunspot cycle Butterfly diagram solar magnetic component - sunspot </li> <li> Slide 7 </li> <li> Slide 8 </li> <li> Slide 9 </li> <li> Slide 10 </li> <li> Annual number of geomagnetic disturbance days with Ap (black area) vs. annual sunspot numbers (Black area). Courtesy NOAA national Geophysical data center, Boulder CO </li> <li> Slide 11 </li> <li> Slide 12 </li> <li> Slide 13 </li> <li> Relation between CMEs released during solar cycle 22, 23 &amp; and the number of prominences during the same time </li> <li> Slide 14 </li> <li> Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Update released May 8, 2009 </li> <li> Slide 15 </li> <li> The solar source region have strong magnetic field intensity and high speed to compress the earths magnetosphere. Magnetic flux during the most disturbed days in the Peak and decline phases of cycle 23. </li> <li> Slide 16 </li> <li> YearProton Flux (pfu @ &gt;10 MeV) Maximum (Day/UT) Start (Day/UT) 1998 1,700Apr 21/1205Apr 20/1400 1,200Oct 01/0025Sep 30/1520 2000 24,000Jul 15/1230Jul 14/1045 14,800Nov 09/1600Nov 08/2350 2001 1110Apr 03/0745Apr 02/2340 12,900Sep 25/2235Sep 24/1215 2360Oct 02/0810Oct 01/1145 31,700Nov 06/0215Nov 04/1705 18,900Nov 24/0555Nov 22/2320 2002 2520Apr 21/2320Apr 21/0225 2003 29500Oct 29/0615Oct 28/1215 1570Nov 03/0815Nov 02/1105 2004 2086Jul 26/2250Jul 25/1855 2005 5040Jan 17/1750Jan 16/0210 3140May 15/0240May 14/0525 1880Sep 11/0425Sep 08/0215 </li> <li> Slide 17 </li> <li> Halloween solar Storms SoHo EIT X-Ray Flare (X 17.2/4B ) 28 October 2003 </li> <li> Slide 18 </li> <li> Movies of regions 10486 SoHo EIT X-Ray Flare (X28/3B) Nov 4, 2003 </li> <li> Slide 19 </li> <li> 8 - Active Regions during Halloween storms </li> <li> Slide 20 </li> <li> Solar disk before the region 10486 rotate behind the western Limb UT 19:29 on November 4, 2003, and X-28 flare during that time. AR486 Before rotation </li> <li> Slide 21 </li> <li> Active Regions during Halloween storms by SoH0 EIT Oct. 22, 2003 By EIT-171 A </li> <li> Slide 22 </li> <li> Movies of regions No 10486 CME in C2 During Oct. 28 2003 </li> <li> Slide 23 </li> <li> The daily cumulative summation curve of 6-solar indices has been studied in order to investigate the possibilities to forecast the occurrence of such giant sudden storms. The used solar Indices are: Sunspot Numbers Sunspot area Optical Flares X-ray flares x-ray intensities x-ray Background flux </li> <li> Slide 24 </li> <li> Daily cumulative Summation curves of x-ray intensities during 25 Oct. to 10 Nov, 2003 show a sudden increase on 26 October, allowing a possible prediction 2 - 3 days before the occurrence of the major eruptive flare/CME, which was released during Halloween storms Daily cumulate Summatio n curve of x-ray intensities during 17 days, starting 25 Oct. 2003 </li> <li> Slide 25 </li> <li> Intensity-time profile of Optical Flares (Fig5b) and GOES 12 x-ray Background flux (Fig4b) during the time period October 25, 2003 to November 19, 2003 </li> <li> Slide 26 </li> <li> Daily cumulative Summation curve of SESC Sunspot number and Sunspot area during the period 25 Oct. to 10 Nov. 2003 </li> <li> Slide 27 </li> <li> The temporal behavior of the six solar indices during the great solar proton events during the solar cycle 23 a)Sunspot NO. b)Sunspot area c)Optical Flares d) X-ray flares e)x-ray Int. f)x-ray Bg flux </li> <li> Slide 28 </li> <li> (Continued) (a)(b)(c)(d)(e)(f) </li> <li> Slide 29 </li> <li> (Continued) (a)(b)(c)(d)(e) (f) </li> <li> Slide 30 </li> <li> -During the decline phase of the last two solar cycles ( 22, and 23) high energetic eruptive flares were recorded. Some of them, are more than that occurred during the peaks of the cycles -High Energetic proton flare, during the decline phase of the present cycle 23,during the Halloween storms of 2003 were occurred. From cumulative cure analysis we can conclude that the release of the Eruptive flares at Halloween storms, 2003 are due to: I - Large active region area (AR 10468), II - Very Strong solar Magnetic field was appeared during that time. III - High peak in geomagnetic disturbances From the data analysis </li> <li> Slide 31 </li> <li> Therefore : -Solar particle events (SPEs) with very high fluxes of solar protons have correlation with geomagnetic storms. -Geomagnetic Indices ( A and K indices ) increased with Increasing Solar Activities with time delay of 1-2 days. </li> <li> Slide 32 </li> <li> Climate changes and Solar Activity in History </li> <li> Slide 33 </li> <li> The C14 Measurement during the last 1000 years </li> <li> Slide 34 </li> <li> Cosmic Ray changes and its comparison with solar cycles </li> <li> Slide 35 </li> <li> Temperate changes over history </li> <li> Slide 36 </li> <li> Global observations since the late 1950s show that the troposphere (up to about 10 km) has warmed at a slightly greater rate than the surface, while the stratosphere (about 1030 km) has cooled markedly since 1979. </li> <li> Slide 37 </li> <li> - A correlation between Geomagnetic Storms, solar Activity variabilities and Climate Change, DETECTED - The Geomagnetic Indices have increased after the high Energetic Particles released, after 1-2 days from the start of the Solar event. </li> <li> Slide 38 </li> <li> http://iaga.cu.edu.eg Convener: Ahmed Hady, aahady@yahoo.com, aahady@cu.edu.eg </li> <li> Slide 39 </li> <li> http://iaga.cu.edu.eg Session 1: Slow Wind Streams, CMEs &amp; 3D Structures of the Corona and Heliosphere. Session 2: Fast Solar Wind &amp; Plumes Session 3: The influence of solar wind turbulence on geomagnetic activity and Earth s Atmosphere Session 4: The role of solar wind heavy ions in the space environment, Meteors and Meteoroids Session 5: Modeling of the Solar Wind and Space Weather. Session 6: Helosheric plasma and Magnetic reconnections. Session 7: Space Science Researches &amp; Education and Public Outreach, The International Year of Astronomy (IYA2009). </li> <li> Slide 40 </li> <li> Slide 41 </li> </ul>