softwood timber supply outlook and influences richard a. harper, cf, rf forest resource analyst usda...

Softwood Timber Supply Outlook and Influences

Richard A. Harper, CF, RFForest Resource Analyst

USDA Forest Service, SRS, FIAKnoxville, TN [email protected]

Southern Forest Products Association

2004 Annual MeetingAsheville, North Carolina

September 26 - 28

Pulp & Paper Mills in the South

1953 51 Mills 1995 105 Mills470 tons/day 1,325 tons/day

R. Harper USDA Forest Service, FIA TPO data

2004 94 Mills1,310 tons/day

1950s – 20,000+/- Mills?

1960 – ???? Mills 12.6 Bill. BF

1970 – 4,528 Mills 16.0 Bill. BF

1980 – 3,674 Mills 19.4 Bill. BF

1990 – 2,838 Mills 24.0 Bill. BF

1999 – 2,289 Mills 26.5 Bill. BF

2001 – 2,189 Mills 25.8 Bill. BF

Historical look at Pulp & Paper and Sawmills

All Primary Saw and Veneer Mills in the South

U.S. Annual Lumber and Wood Pulp Production, 1900-2003

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Bill

ion

s o

f b

oar

d f

eet

- lu

mb

er

.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Mill

ion

s o

f to

ns

- w

oo

d p

ulp

.

Softwood LumberHardwood LumberWood Pulp

U.S. wood pulp output peaked in the mid-90s, and since 1995 an unprecedented drop in wood pulp output has occurred.

Wood pulp production includes estimates of dissolving pulp and wood pulp for construction paper and boardSources: Howard, J. L. Research Paper FPL-RP-595 (and earlier reports); AF&PA Monthly Statistical Summary;

Pet

er J

. In

ce,

U.S

. F

ore

st,P

rod

uct

s L

abo

rato

ry,

Mad

iso

n,

WI

U.S. Annual Lumber and Wood Pulp Production, 1900-2003

Forested Regions of the World

14%

23%

27%14%

17% 5%

R. Haynes, PNW-GTR-560, Feb. 2003

R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA

U.S. ≈ 6%

South 1.7%

Industrial Wood Output is projected to increase 50% between 1995 and 2040

J. Prestemon and R. Abt Journal of Forestry, Oct/Nov 2002


195241% of U.S.

6.3% of World

199758% of U.S.

15.8% of World

Today18% of World

While U.S. ≈ 25% of World

U.S. softwood timber

production grew

22% (1952 – 2001)

South softwood timber production

grew 125% (1952 – 2001)

South’s Percent of Industrial Wood Products(All Roundwood Production)

Forestland in the United States

USDA Forest Service, North Central Research StationForest Inventory and Analysis

Legend

Forest

Nonforest

Forestland OwnershipU.S. Forestland and Ownerships

U.S. Mill Capacity

Mill Capacity (MMBF/Year) Less than 10 (221mills)

10 – 50 (214 mills)

50 – 100 (135 mills)

100 – 200 (113 mills)

Greater than 200 (30 mills)

Softwood Mill Capacity in the United States

Data - H. Spelter, M. AldermanFPL-RP-608Forest Products Lab, Madison, WI

Map - Dale Gormanson North Central Research StationSt. Paul, MN

Forest Type Map

Forest Type

Hardwood

Softwood

Non Forest

Mill

ion

Cu

bic

Me

ters

H. Spelter, USDA FS, Forest Products Lab, Madison, WI


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

North South West

1995 Capacity

2002 Capacity

Capacity Loss

14%9%

21%7.1%

13.5% 0.5%Net Capacity Change

U.S. Softwood Lumber Capacity Change by Region 1996-2002

U.S. Softwood Sawtimber Volume/Acre of Timberland

Less than 500

501 - 2,000

2,001 - 5,000

5,001 - 8,000

8,001 - 10,000

10,001 - 20,000

Greater than 20,000

None

Board Feet/Acre of Timberland

Data source: 2002 Timberland Area, RPA dB ESRI 2002 data & mapsUSDA Forest Service North Central Research StationD. Gormanson, J. Vissage, R. Harper

Softwood Sawtimber Volume/Acre of Timberland

Intensity of Softwood Sawlog Harvest – 2001

Less than 50

None

50 - 125125 - 250250 - 500Greater than 500



U.S. Intensity of Softwood Sawtimber Harvest - 2001

Less than 25-24 to 25 (no change)Greater than 25


Change in Softwood Sawtimber Production Intensity – 1996 to 2001


U.S. Change in Softwood Sawtimber Intensity – 1996 to 2001

NoneLess than 1000


1001 - 20002001 - 30003001 - 5000Greater than 5000

Softwood Sawtimber Volume per Acre of Timberland


South Softwood Sawtimber Volume/Acre of Timberland

NoneLess than 50

50 - 100

100 - 200Greater than 200


Intensity of Softwood Sawlog Harvest – 2001


South Intensity of Softwood Sawtimber Harvest - 2001

Change in Softwood Sawtimber Production Intensity – 1996 to 2001

Less than -24-24 to 25Greater than 25



South Change in Softwood Sawtimber Intensity – 1996 to 2001

Trends in Softwood Volume by D.B.H. Class - South

R. Harper USDA Forest Service, FIA data

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22-28

D.B.H. (inches)

To

ns

(m

illio

n)

2002

1997

1987

1977

1953

Trends in Softwood Volume by D.B.H. Class - South

Global Tree PlantationsGlobally, industrial forest plantations have expanded to over 200 million acres by the year 2000 (according to FAO*), with most expansion in Asia and Oceania.

(?) *The plantation acreage in Asia is questionable, but in any case there are now tens of millions of acres of industrial plantations worldwide.

0

50

100

150

200

250

Mil

lio

ns

of

Acr

esSouth America

North America

Europe

Asia & Oceania

Africa

(?)

Peter J. Ince, U.S. Forest,Products Laboratory, Madison, WI

14%

23%

27%

14%

17%5%

South Tree Plantation and D.B.H Classes

Also, the shifts in pulpwood demand and timber harvest were accompanied by big increases in the area of managed timber plantations and intensity of management for Southern pine . . .

Since 1985, an estimated 32 million acres of pines were planted in the South

(Marshall Thomas, F&W Forestry)

Peter J. Ince, U.S. Forest Products Laboratory, Madison, WI

R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA, Knoxville, TN

Volume by DBH Distribution of Planted SYP - South

-20406080

100120140

5.0-6.9

7.0-8.9

9.0-10.9

11.0-12.9

13.0-14.9

15.0-16.9

17.0-18.9

19.0-20.9

DBH

Mill

ion

To

ns

Stand Age 15-20

Stand Age 20-25

Stand Age 25-30

Stand Age 30-35

Stand Age 35-40

R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIADB

Historical Planted Acres in the SouthSeedlings Planted in the South, 1945 – 1999 (Industry & Private)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Acr

es (m

illio

ns) Soil

Bank

ConservationReserveProgram

SFRA, Sept. 2002R. Harper, USDA Forest Service, FIA

Industry

NIPF

Historical Planted Acres by U.S Regions

Historical Planted Acres in the South


Figure 12-1. Tree planting in the United States by year and region, 1952–1996.

North South West

1952

1962

1972

1982

1992

2002

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Mill

ion

ac

res

0.0

Projected Softwood Volumes by Stand Types - SouthProjected Softwood Volumes by Stand Types- South

27%

55%

67%

43%

25%

18%

J. Prestemon and R. Abt, SFRA, Sept. 2002

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Planted Natural Oak-pine Upland hardwood

Bottomland hardwood

To

ns

(th

ou

san

d)

27%

55%

67%

43%

25%

18%

199520202040

Projected Softwood Volumes by Age Classes - South

J. Prestemon and R. Abt, SFRA, Sept. 2002

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50+

Age Class (years)

To

ns

(th

ou

san

d)

199520202040

Projected Softwood Volumes by Age Classes - South

0

40

80

120

160

Bill

ion

cu

bic

fe

et

Softwood 89 101 111 121

1995 2010 2025 2040

SRTS Southern Softwood Private Timber Inventory, 1995–2040

Professor Bob Abt, NCSU; Fall 2001See http://courses.ncsu.edu/classes/for319001/sofac/sfs_fwc_timsupply.ppt

The Southern Regional Timber Supply model (SRTS) that was used in the recent Southern Forest Resource Assessment projected an increase in softwood timber inventory on private forestland in the South out to 2040.

Peter J. Ince U.S. Forest, Products Laboratory, Madison, WI

≈36% increase

Shifts in Annual Volumes, So. Pine Plantation Growth and Total U.S. Pulpwood Receipts (all species)

Shifts in Annual Volumes, So. Pine Plantation Growth and Total U.S. Pulpwood Receipts (all species)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Shift in Pine Plantation Growth Shift in U.S. Pulpwood Receipts

Mill

ion

gre

en

to

ns

In an article published in the January 2003 Forest Products Journal, Professor Siry (Univ. of GA) estimated that the average annual growth increment of Southern pine plantations will have increased by 69.2 million green tons per year, between 1987 and 2004 (at left).

Meanwhile, actual data on pulpwood receipts from the Forest Resources Association show that annual U.S. pulpwood receipts (all species, roundwood and residues) have declined by -6.74 million green tons between 1987 and 2001 . . .


Other Roundwood Consumption (besides pulpwood), Historical and Comparison of RPA Projections

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1952

1962

1970

1986

1996

2010

2020

2030

2040

Bill

ion

cu

bic

fee

t

Fuelwood & Misc.OSBVeneer logsSawlogs

Other Roundwood Consumption (besides pulpwood), Historical and Comparison of RPA Projections

1989 RPA


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2001 RPA

Population Density Impact on Forestry

0 -99100 - 199

200 - 399

400 - 799

> 800

# of People Per Square Mile

2000 Census

Population Density Map

At approximately 45 people/square mile, there is a 50:50 chance of practicing forestry.

At 150 people/square mile, forestry approaches zeroVirginia Study (D. Wear, et al., USDA Forest Service,1998).Compiled by R. Harper, J. McCollum USDA Forest Service, FIA

0 -99100 - 199

200 - 399

400 - 799

> 800

# of People Per Square Mile

2000 Census

Population Density Map


Forecast Change in Forestland 1992 - 2010

Forest change> 14% loss8 – 14% loss0 – 8% lossStable> 1% gain

Forecast Change in Forestland 1992 – 2010

D. Wear, et.al, SFRA, Sept. 2002

South-wide Pine Sawtimber Stumpage Price

1991(3rd Qtr.) to 2003(2nd Qtr.) $/ton

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Stumpage

Stumpage trend

Source: Timber Mart-South

Annual Increase 12.1%

Annual Decrease 2.7%

$/T

on

Historical National Forest Annual Timber Harvest Levels and Lumber Production Shift

NFS Harvest

The downward shifts in pulpwood demand and U.S. timber harvest were accompanied by a huge decline in National Forest harvest levels since the 1980s . . .

Also, NFS timber inventory data were revised upward since the last timber assessment.

Source: Forest Service ‘Sold and Harvest’ Reports, through FY ‘02

Historical National Forest Annual Timber Harvest Levels

Peter J. Ince, U.S. Forest, Products Laboratory, Madison, WI

Lumber Production Shift 1986 to 1997

West ` 27%

South & 34%R. Haynes, USDA Forest Service, PNW-GTR-560

Lumber vs. Stumpage Prices

Source: Random Lengths and Timber Mart-South

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1Q86 1Q88 1Q90 1Q92 1Q94 1Q96 1Q98 1Q00 1Q02 1Q04

US

$ p

er M

BF

(l

um

ber

or

tim

ber

)

RL Composite Lumber SE Avg PST stumpage

Poly. (RL Composite Lumber) Poly. (SE Avg PST stumpage)

Lumber vs. Stumpage Prices

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1Q86 1Q88 1Q90 1Q92 1Q94 1Q96 1Q98 1Q00 1Q02

US

$ p

er M

BF

(l

um

ber

or

tim

ber

)

RL Composite Lumber SC Avg PST stumpage

Poly. (RL Composite Lumber) Poly. (SC Avg PST stumpage)

Source: Random Lengths and Timber Mart-South

Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 - Impact???


J. Mills, X. Zhou, PNW-GTR-568, Jan. 2003

Figure 73–National forest softwood harvest in base, zero harvest, and doubled interior West harvest scenarios.

So

ftw

oo

d h

arve

st (

bill

ion

cu

bic

fee

t) 2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

Year

Zero national forest harvest

Base case

Doubled NF cut interior West

1989 RPA Projection(≈10.8 BBF*)

SW Stump $ ` ≈ 2%SW Lumber $ ` ≈ 2%SW Removal ` ≈ 1%

≈700 Million CF/YR (≈4 BBF*)

Adds ≈445 Million CF/YR (≈2.5 BBF*)

Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 - Impact???

(Healthy Forest Initiative)

* BBF = Billion Board Feet

Southern ForestsThe World’s Preeminent Producer

• The U.S. South is the single largest producer of industrial roundwood.

• The U.S. South produces approximately 25% of the world’s wood pulp, 18% of solid wood products.

• The South currently produces 58% of the total U.S. harvest.

• 60% of the total U.S. forest industry capital spending is dedicated to the South.

Summary

Summary • The forest resource situation is constantly changing, and change is one rationale for FIA/RPA assessments… • Big shifts recently: - Pulpwood Demand ` down

- National Forest Harvest ` down

- Pine Plantations (South) & up

• Result: Big build up in standing timber inventories (especially for NFS, Other Public, & NIPF)

• Issues for future timber assessments (2010 RPA?):- Globalization, consolidation, & fiber demand- Future development of plantations- Other big changes?Peter J. Ince

U.S. Forest Products Laboratory, Madison, WI

Softwood resource looks abundantSince 1985, an estimated 32 million acres

of pines were planted in the South (Marshall Thomas, F&W Forestry)

14%

23%

27%14%

17% 5%

Plantations of the World ≈ 220 million acres

softwood timber supply outlook and influences richard a. harper, cf, rf forest resource analyst usda...

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