Societal Value of ImprovedSocietal Value of Improved

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts:Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts:

A SynthesisA Synthesis

AsimAsim ZiaZia, Rebecca , Rebecca MorssMorss and Jeff Lazo and Jeff Lazo

National Center for Atmospheric ResearchNational Center for Atmospheric Research

Societal Impacts Program (SIP)Societal Impacts Program (SIP)

First THORPEX International Science SymposiumFirst THORPEX International Science Symposium

December 7, 2004December 7, 2004

OutlineOutline

Motivation

Research objectives

Methods

Initial results

Future research

MotivationMotivation

QPFs feed into high-impact weather

forecasts (floods, snow storms, hurricanes)– THORPEX Objective

SIP objective - synthesize knowledge about

societal impacts and value of weather

information

QPFs research focus for USWRP

Research ObjectivesResearch Objectives

Synthesize existing knowledge about QPFs

– societal

– economic

– environmental

What QPF information does and will provide

most benefit?

– spatial resolution

– timing

– lead time

MethodsMethods

Literature review

Qualitative meta-analysis

Expert interviews

Initial Results:Initial Results:

Literature ReviewLiterature Review

No statistical

difference in the

expected profits

with irrigation

schedules based

on climatologic,

current and perfect

QPFs.

Whether to

irrigate

Irrigation

sorghum

Oklahoma

1984-87

precipitation,

temperature,

solar

radiation

1 day

Rogers

and

Elliot

(1988)

ConclusionDecision

Problem

Sector

subsector

Region /

Period

Weather

studied /

lead time

Author

Categorized:Categorized: Static Cost/Loss Model Static Cost/Loss Model

Initial Results:Initial Results:

Qualitative Meta-AnalysisQualitative Meta-Analysis

–– Bayesian decision theoryBayesian decision theory

one shot game: one shot game: staticstatic Cost/Loss Cost/Loss

sequential game: sequential game: dynamicdynamic Cost/Loss Cost/Loss

–– Neoclassical economicsNeoclassical economics

individual decision-makersindividual decision-makers

non-market valuationnon-market valuation

–– Risk marketsRisk markets

weather derivativesweather derivatives

reinsurancereinsurance

Initial Results:Initial Results:

Qualitative Meta-AnalysisQualitative Meta-Analysis

–– General equilibrium economicsGeneral equilibrium economics

–– Psychology - descriptive decision modelsPsychology - descriptive decision models

–– Sociology - group decision theory modelsSociology - group decision theory models

–– Public mgmt / organizational behaviorPublic mgmt / organizational behavior

–– Environmental / natural resource mgmtEnvironmental / natural resource mgmt

(Initial) Recommendations(Initial) Recommendations

Extend cost/loss modelsExtend cost/loss models–– nn-person non-cooperative and cooperative games-person non-cooperative and cooperative games

Descriptive decision theoretical studiesDescriptive decision theoretical studies–– individual psychologyindividual psychology

–– social psychologysocial psychology

–– organizational psychology studiesorganizational psychology studies

Empirical partial and general equilibriumEmpirical partial and general equilibrium–– valuation for policy and decision makingvaluation for policy and decision making

–– estimate marginal benefit curvesestimate marginal benefit curves

Non-market valuation studiesNon-market valuation studies

‘‘ForecastedForecasted’’ Research Research

Continue literature review and analysisContinue literature review and analysis

Expert InterviewsExpert Interviews

–– researchersresearchers

–– forecastersforecasters

–– usersusers

Extend to other weather forecastsExtend to other weather forecasts

–– hurricane track and intensityhurricane track and intensity

–– probabilistic forecastsprobabilistic forecasts