social science, societal impacts, and weather · social science, societal impacts, and weather jeff...
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Social Science, Societal
Impacts, and Weather
Social Science, Societal
Impacts, and Weather
Jeff Lazo and Julie Demuth1National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
With special thanks to Heather Lazrus2
and Melissa Tuttle Carr3
2OU & NOAA Social Science Woven Into Meteorology (SSWIM)3Independent Consultant, CNN
2010 Summer WAS*IS Workshop
August 6, 2010
MotivationMotivation
• Even perfect forecast and warning information isn’t
useful if it isn’t received, understood, or usable
• We’re always looking to provide better information
in better ways to better serve the range of users of
forecast and warning information … to promote a
safer, more informed society
Requires physical and social science!Requires physical and social science!
Research programs focusing on
meteorology & social sciences
Research programs focusing on
meteorology & social sciences
• NCAR Societal Impacts Program (SIP)
– Jeff Lazo (economics), Rebecca Morss
(meteorology), Emily Laidlaw
(journalism), Julie Demuth
(meteorology & communication)
• OU Social Science Woven Into
Meteorology (SSWIM)
– Eve Gruntfest (geography), Heather
Lazrus (anthropology)
Many more wonderful researchers
(& collaborators) and research efforts!
Many more wonderful researchers
(& collaborators) and research efforts!
www.sip.ucar.edu
www.sswim.org
Capacity-building effort: WAS*IS!Capacity-building effort: WAS*IS!
• WAS*IS is an important capacity-building effort
– Builds an interdisciplinary community of people
passionate about social science and meteorology
– Promotes new ways of thinking about issues that fall at
the interface of meteorology and society
– Workshops provide a forum to discuss these issues
WAS*IS®
weather & society * integrated studies
www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/
CULTURE CHANGE
Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program
• WAS*IS is not a research program
– Can inspire collaborations
– Can spur research ideas
www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis
Science, impacts, and capacity-
building … oh my!
Science, impacts, and capacity-
building … oh my!
Weather
Enterprise
Weather
Enterprise
Societal
Impacts
Societal
Impacts
Social
Science
Social
Science
Collaborations
Weather
Enterprise
Weather
EnterpriseSocietal
Impacts
Societal
Impacts
Social
Science
Social
Science
CollaborationsCollaborations
Societal impactsSocietal impacts
• Societal – of or pertaining to the life, welfare, and
relations of human beings
• Impact – the effect of one thing on another
• Societal impact of weather – the effect of weather
on human life, welfare, and relations
– E.g., impacts – economic impact (crop loss), health
impacts (heat stroke), emotional impact (property
damage)
We want to respond to societal impacts to reduce
loss of life and property
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Forecasters can consider societal
impacts by asking…
Forecasters can consider societal
impacts by asking…
• Who will be impacted?
• Are people…
awake/sleeping/driving/harvesting/fishing/
constructing/graduating/getting married?
• What has happened to this point?
– Have there been fatalities?
– What are the TV stations saying?
• Have earlier events been “missed”?
Courtesy of Daniel Nietfeld, SOO, WFO OAX
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Societal impact ex: Rush hour tornadoSocietal impact ex: Rush hour tornado
• Environmental conditions – favorable to produce a
tornado
• Societal impact – urban area with three interstate
highways at rush hour
• Action – a well warned event that conveyed a
message to stay off of the roads
• Effect – highways empty at rush hour
Not research … but the societal
impact was addressed beneficially
based on forecasters’ understanding
of local area and population
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Social sciencesSocial sciences
• Application of the scientific process to study &
understand human cognition & behavior
– Emphasis on “process”
• Using testable theories, systematic process, and
rigorous research to answer questions about
human society
• Subjects and the theories that describe them
constantly change – unlike physical parameters,
human society is never static!
So
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Scientific
process
Scientific
process
So
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Take home point
Social sciences are true “sciences” – as are physical sciences – with theories, observations, methods, applications. And they are extremely challenging as human behavior is non-linear, dynamic, and even “chaotic” … kind of like
meteorology!
Diverse disciplinesDiverse disciplines
Social science is commonly used as an umbrella termto refer to a plurality of fields outside of the natural sciences
•Anthropology
•Geography
•Communication
•Psychology
•Political Science
•Economics
•Education
•Sociology
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Diverse methodologiesDiverse methodologies
Qualitative and quantitative approaches
• Interviews
– Structured
– Semi-structured
– Open interviews
• Surveys
• Direct observations
• Participatory activities
• Focus groups
• Etc.
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Ex. Different research questions
from different disciplines about a
single phenomenon...
Ex. Different research questions
from different disciplines about a
single phenomenon...
e.g., hurricane
evacuation
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Research question ex. 1:
Economics
Research question ex. 1:
Economics
What are the economic costs of hurricane
evacuations?So
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What would be
the economic
benefits of
opening the other
lanes to outbound
traffic?
Research question ex. 2:
Anthropology
Research question ex. 2:
Anthropology
Which vulnerability characteristics are most
influential in hurricane evacuation decisions?So
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What cultural
characteristics
affect the use of
public shelters??
Research question ex. 3a:
Communication
Research question ex. 3a:
Communication
How could social media (e.g., Facebook,
Twitter) be effectively used during hurricane
evacuations?
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What
communication
sources do people
trust most?
Research question ex. 3b:
Communication
Research question ex. 3b:
Communication• Social science is NOT just about studying the “end
user” … meteorologists are people too! ☺
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE SUITER LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL1129 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE SUITER MOVES
THRU BAHAMAS...
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
SUITER IS BECOMING AN INCREASINGLY SERIOUS THREAT
TO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
FOCUS ON EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO
NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. A GENERAL
CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST
EXTENSIVE DAMAGE SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLY BASED ON WINDS, WITH SURGE ALSO BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY AT
THIS TIME...HEAVY AND FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN RAIN BANDS WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM. …
How do forecasters’
knowledge and
perceptions of their
audiences influence
the content of the
forecast messages
they construct?
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So…So…
• Sometimes social science research is needed to
understand the complexity of human cognition
and behavior
…and…
• Other times understanding societal impacts can
improve the outcomes
–Know local context
–Listen to local stakeholders
–Draw on your local expertiseSo
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The good, the bad, & the uglyThe good, the bad, & the ugly
• “Good” – Social sciences have taught us a lot
about people, and can teach us so much more
• “Bad” – Work integrating meteorology & social
science is in its infancy
• “Ugly” – We will never be able to save 100% of
people 100% of the time (and sometimes, weather
isn’t even the main influential factor)
• There are so many opportunities of where NWS
and social scientists can work together to do
better at saving lives and property!
& the beautiful& the beautifulSo
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Collaborations are key!Collaborations are key!
• Social scientists, meteorologists, NWS,
broadcasters, practitioners, policy-makers,
– Value and integrate each others’ expertise
– Listen to and learn from each other
– Co-produce new knowledge
Co
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None of us individually can (or
should!) do it all
None of us individually can (or
should!) do it all
• Jeff Lazo issuing 7-day forecasts + forecaster
developing and implementing a survey to elicit
people’s interpretations, perceptions, and
behaviors re: weather forecasts = disaster!
• Jeff developing the survey + forecaster issuing the
7-day forecasts + working and learning together
= success!
Co
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The sum is so much greater than the parts!The sum is so much greater than the parts!
NWS collaborative efforts & resourcesNWS collaborative efforts & resources
• NWS social science focal point – Jen Sprague
• Integrated Warning Team (IWT) workshops
– Julie Adolphson & Andy Bailey (Kansas City/Pleasant Hill)
– Jim Meyer & Dan Nietfeld (Omaha/Valley)
– Mike Coyne & Krissy Scotten (Huntsville)
– Upcoming Kansas-wide IWT (more tomorrow!)
• SAFER workshop
– Craig Schmidt & Darone Jones
Co
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Key take-home pointsKey take-home points
• Ultimate goal of weather forecasting is to create
societal value by providing usable information for
decision making
• Social sciences use the scientific process
• Societal impacts and social sciences both have a
role … they’re not the same … each has its place
• Collaborations are key!
Thank you!Thank you!
• Acknowledgements
– Jen Sprague, Eli Jacks, and Tom Graziano – HQ
– Mike Foster – MIC, WFO OUN
– Doug Hilderbrand – OST
– Brian Lamarre – MIC, WFO TBW
– Jim Meyer – MIC, WFO OAX
– Daniel Nietfeld – SOO, WFO OAX
– John Ogren – Director, NWS Training Center
– Kevin Scharfenberg – OCWWS
– Rick Smith – WCM, WFO OUN
– Dan St Jean – SOO, WFO GYX
– And many others…