Social Resilience Social Resilience and State and State

Fragility in HaitiFragility in HaitiA Country Social AnalysisA Country Social Analysis

Presented by Presented by

Dorte VernerDorte VernerWorld BankWorld Bank

May 2006May 2006

BackgroundBackground

Haiti is a resilient society whose rural Haiti is a resilient society whose rural communities in particular have developed communities in particular have developed coping mechanisms in response to a long coping mechanisms in response to a long history of underdevelopment and political history of underdevelopment and political instabilityinstability

The country’s religious, cultural, and artistic The country’s religious, cultural, and artistic life is highly diverse and vibrantlife is highly diverse and vibrant

Like other fragile states, however, Haiti is also Like other fragile states, however, Haiti is also beset by widespread poverty and inequality, beset by widespread poverty and inequality, economic decline and unemployment, poor economic decline and unemployment, poor governance, and violencegovernance, and violence

ObjectivesObjectives

To support the Bank’s Country Assistance To support the Bank’s Country Assistance Strategy and Bank and other donors’ Strategy and Bank and other donors’ policy dialogue with Haitipolicy dialogue with Haiti

To assess the main components of Haiti’s To assess the main components of Haiti’s conflict-poverty trap from the perspective conflict-poverty trap from the perspective of the triangle of factors that have been of the triangle of factors that have been identified identified

The report’s three main sections explore The report’s three main sections explore the nature of these components, and a the nature of these components, and a closing section considers the linkages closing section considers the linkages among them. among them.

Components of a Components of a conflict-poverty trapconflict-poverty trap

Demographic and socioeconomic outcomes and risks

Institutional capacity;provide public goods

Political actors and strategies

Demographic risk factors for Demographic risk factors for violent conflict:violent conflict:

A very young population profile, A very young population profile, High population turnover High population turnover

because of high in- and out-migration—new because of high in- and out-migration—new migrants continue to be attracted to the migrants continue to be attracted to the metrop. area by higher levels of metrop. area by higher levels of infrastructure, services, and jobs infrastructure, services, and jobs

Poverty Poverty

Rapid population Rapid population growth and growth and

urbanizationurbanization Rapid population Rapid population growthgrowth now about 8 M (could now about 8 M (could

reach about 12.3 M reach about 12.3 M by 2030) by 2030)

2.2% per year, 5% in 2.2% per year, 5% in urban areasurban areas

Rapid urbanization: Rapid urbanization: 1.2 mill (1982) to 3.2 1.2 mill (1982) to 3.2

mill (2002)mill (2002) Two-thirds of growth Two-thirds of growth

occurred in PauPoccurred in PauP

High population turnover &High population turnover &absent economic growthabsent economic growth

High population turnover in PauPHigh population turnover in PauP 75,000 migrants to greater PauP per 75,000 migrants to greater PauP per

yearyear High rate of dissolved familiesHigh rate of dissolved families

The rapid rate of pop gr +poor The rapid rate of pop gr +poor economic performance => lowering economic performance => lowering per capita GDP per capita GDP has fallen by about 50% to $332 in the has fallen by about 50% to $332 in the

last two decades last two decades

High transfer dependency, High transfer dependency, Inequality and InformalityInequality and Informality

Very high access to nonlabor income Very high access to nonlabor income World’s top receiver of remittances—30%+ of HH World’s top receiver of remittances—30%+ of HH

receive receive Esp. in urban areasEsp. in urban areas

Remittances contribute 32% of HH incomeRemittances contribute 32% of HH income Education promotes internal and external migrationEducation promotes internal and external migration

Little demand for workersLittle demand for workers 83% are self-employed/informal83% are self-employed/informal Skilled wage labor is Skilled wage labor is key key to escaping povertyto escaping poverty

World’s highest income inequality (Gini 0.66)World’s highest income inequality (Gini 0.66) Both within and between rural and urban areasBoth within and between rural and urban areas Remittances reproduce existing inequalityRemittances reproduce existing inequality

Few and diminishing Few and diminishing options options

for Haiti’s youngfor Haiti’s young 115,000 persons 115,000 persons enter the PauP labor enter the PauP labor mk every yearmk every year Unemployment is Unemployment is

staggering among the staggering among the young and educated young and educated (secondary>50%)(secondary>50%)

Number of skilled jobs in Number of skilled jobs in the capital < one year’s the capital < one year’s supply of new entrantssupply of new entrants

TotalTotal number of wage number of wage jobs in the PauP< 2 jobs in the PauP< 2 years’ supply of new years’ supply of new entrants entrants

0

20

40

60

80

100

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60 +

Age

%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

None Primary Secondary Higher

Education

Poverty is very deep and Poverty is very deep and broad (2001)broad (2001)

49% of all Haitian households lived in 49% of all Haitian households lived in extremeextreme poverty poverty (on the basis of a US$1 a day (on the basis of a US$1 a day extreme poverty line)extreme poverty line)

Wide differences among localities and Wide differences among localities and regions regions 20, 56, and 58 % of households in 20, 56, and 58 % of households in

metropolitan, urban, and rural areas, metropolitan, urban, and rural areas, respectively, were extremely poor respectively, were extremely poor

Most of the approx. 3.9 M who are extremely Most of the approx. 3.9 M who are extremely poor live in rural areaspoor live in rural areas

Poverty is especially extensive in the Poverty is especially extensive in the Northeast and Northwest regionsNortheast and Northwest regions

Many social indicators low Many social indicators low but improvingbut improving

Adult illiteracyAdult illiteracy From 78 to 40% (1970-From 78 to 40% (1970-

2000)2000) Infant mortality Infant mortality

From 148 to 79 per 1000 From 148 to 79 per 1000 (1970-2002)(1970-2002)

Child malnutrition Child malnutrition From 34 to 23% (1990–From 34 to 23% (1990–

2000)2000) But varies strongly But varies strongly

with HH income and with HH income and region (rural vs. urban)region (rural vs. urban)

Likely result of…Likely result of… RemittancesRemittances Illegal economyIllegal economy Price changesPrice changes

Reduction of food Reduction of food import tariffs in the import tariffs in the 1990s1990s

Aid and non-state Aid and non-state service provisionservice provision

Access education and Access education and infrastructural strongly infrastructural strongly

correlated with poverty in correlated with poverty in HaitiHaiti InfrastructureInfrastructure

access infrastructural services is highly unequal access infrastructural services is highly unequal (income, location) (income, location)

the rural poor in particular lack access to the rural poor in particular lack access to potable water, electricity, and roadspotable water, electricity, and roads

Eduaction. Although overall educational Eduaction. Although overall educational attainment has increased in recent decades, attainment has increased in recent decades, there is substantial variation in attainment there is substantial variation in attainment and school attendance across regions; and school attendance across regions; children and youth in the poorest regions lag children and youth in the poorest regions lag

behind their peers in richer regions. behind their peers in richer regions. the children of poor households have less the children of poor households have less

education than their nonpoor peerseducation than their nonpoor peers

Crime and cohesionCrime and cohesion Despite troubles, many Despite troubles, many

indicators point to strong indicators point to strong social cohesionsocial cohesion Rural peace and cooperationRural peace and cooperation Migrant – household bondsMigrant – household bonds Social capital a factor in Social capital a factor in

escaping povertyescaping poverty

Homicide rates on regional Homicide rates on regional average, but high incidence average, but high incidence of domestic violenceof domestic violence 35% of women victims of 35% of women victims of

domestic violencedomestic violence 27 homicides per 100,000 27 homicides per 100,000

citizens in 2001 (LCR: 22.9)citizens in 2001 (LCR: 22.9)

Violent deaths concentrated Violent deaths concentrated in PauPin PauP

Political violence worse in Political violence worse in earlier periodsearlier periods

Violent deaths by main urban center June 2004 - May 2005

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Gonaives Port au Prince Cap Haitien Rest of Country

High criminal threat High criminal threat areasareas

A resilient societyA resilient society

Economic indicators reflect pervasive Economic indicators reflect pervasive development neglect & demographic and development neglect & demographic and socio-economic indicators point to high socio-economic indicators point to high conflict risksconflict risks

But majority of population live in peaceBut majority of population live in peace Crime rates are not higher than regional averageCrime rates are not higher than regional average Human security is improving & basic social Human security is improving & basic social

indicators are showing progressindicators are showing progress A society that has learnt to cope despite the A society that has learnt to cope despite the

statestate

Components of a Components of a conflict-poverty trapconflict-poverty trap

Demography, poverty, and inequality: welfare outcomes and social risks

Institutional capacity : provide public goods

Political actors and strategies: leadership and entrepreneurs of violence

Dimensions of Dimensions of StatenessStateness

Pure public goods

Addressing market failure Improving equity (ex post)

Protecting the poor

Addressing externalities Social insurance

Coordinating private activity

Minimal

Intermediate

Activist Wealth redistribution

Func

tion

s

Public adm.Law and orderBasic health and educationInfrastructure

Institutions mattersInstitutions matters Institutions Institutions mattermatter for social and economic for social and economic

development, and are crucial for state development, and are crucial for state buildingbuilding

Institutions have the potential to mitigate Institutions have the potential to mitigate the risk factors of violence and conflict that the risk factors of violence and conflict that emanate from the socioeconomic and emanate from the socioeconomic and demographic contextdemographic context

The Haitian state, however, has only a The Haitian state, however, has only a limited capacity to establish law and order, limited capacity to establish law and order, or to create conditions for economic growth or to create conditions for economic growth and poverty reduction.and poverty reduction.

Progress in breaking out of the conflict-Progress in breaking out of the conflict-poverty trap demands attention to the poverty trap demands attention to the restoration of core state functions in these restoration of core state functions in these areasareas

To understand the Haitian state’s To understand the Haitian state’s capacity capacity

to be a driver of development, its to be a driver of development, its financial constraints must be noted financial constraints must be noted

(2005)(2005) GDP is low and declining since 1980GDP is low and declining since 1980 Gov. revenues were only 9% of GDP (avg. of 18% in Gov. revenues were only 9% of GDP (avg. of 18% in

low-income cou)low-income cou) Only 1.8% of revenues derive from taxes on income, Only 1.8% of revenues derive from taxes on income,

profits, or capitalprofits, or capital Gov. expenditures have fluctuated sharply—9-16% of Gov. expenditures have fluctuated sharply—9-16% of

GDP—largely as a result of volatility in external GDP—largely as a result of volatility in external assistance.assistance.

Therefore a weak domestic revenue base, Therefore a weak domestic revenue base, unstable external flows, and poor expenditure unstable external flows, and poor expenditure targeting have left spending on edu., health, targeting have left spending on edu., health, and infrast. below the avg of low-inc couand infrast. below the avg of low-inc cou

The absent stateThe absent state

1987 constitution established complex 1987 constitution established complex and comprehensive national and comprehensive national governance structuregovernance structure But the But the Collectivities Territoriales Collectivities Territoriales never never

implemented in practiceimplemented in practice Local participation in policy planning and Local participation in policy planning and

institutional channels between local levels institutional channels between local levels and central gov. remains low and central gov. remains low

Public infra. Public infra. (electricity, telephones, piped (electricity, telephones, piped

water, roads, regulatory frameworks) water, roads, regulatory frameworks) hardly hardly provided outside of PauP =>NSSprovided outside of PauP =>NSS

Basic service provided by Basic service provided by non-state actorsnon-state actors

Non state sector (NSS) has expanded rapidly to respond to unmet needs Some 80% of education provided by NSS providers Make the difference between access and nonaccess

for large parts of the population, esp in rural areas

The NSS sector is diverse diverse in character & Serious problems of efficiency, accountability, equity, and access for the poor

Can the state successfully facilitate and coordinate service provision to enhance quality and cover gaps in provision to the poor?

Weakness and Weakness and corruption of police and corruption of police and

judiciaryjudiciary Massive efforts to Massive efforts to

build police and build police and judiciary institutions judiciary institutions in the 1990sin the 1990s

Achievements wiped Achievements wiped out in late 1990s out in late 1990s because of political because of political interferenceinterference

Police is involved in Police is involved in corruption, smuggling corruption, smuggling etc.etc.(HNP chief October 05)(HNP chief October 05) ILAC 2005 assessment : ILAC 2005 assessment :

“Rule of law has fallen to “Rule of law has fallen to lowest point since 1994” lowest point since 1994”

Politicization is the Politicization is the fundamental problemfundamental problem

Number of police officers per 100,000 people

63

180

285

304

325

346

363

0 100 200 300 400

Haiti

America (Latin)

America (North)

Asia

A failed stateA failed state

The Haitian state does not provide The Haitian state does not provide core public goods core public goods (security, rule of law, (security, rule of law,

infrastructure)infrastructure) and cannot claim the and cannot claim the monopoly of the legitimate use of monopoly of the legitimate use of physical force within its given territoryphysical force within its given territory

Economic growth, poverty reduction, Economic growth, poverty reduction, increased equity, and conflict increased equity, and conflict prevention are equally dependent on prevention are equally dependent on restoration of core state functionsrestoration of core state functions

Components of a Components of a conflict-poverty trapconflict-poverty trap

Demography, poverty, and inequality: welfare outcomes and social risks

Institutional capacity : provide public goods

Political actors and strategies: leadership and entrepreneurs of violence

Soup of democracy, fork of Soup of democracy, fork of division;division;

Political Actors and Political Actors and StrategiesStrategies Twenty years have passed since the Twenty years have passed since the

1986 ouster of Jean-Claude “Baby 1986 ouster of Jean-Claude “Baby Doc” Duvalier created a window of Doc” Duvalier created a window of opportunity to establish a more stable opportunity to establish a more stable and democratic form of governanceand democratic form of governance

But polarized politics has complicated But polarized politics has complicated efforts to address the country’s efforts to address the country’s complex and deeply rooted complex and deeply rooted development challengesdevelopment challenges

Haitian PoliticsHaitian Politics The 1987 constitution provides for a clear The 1987 constitution provides for a clear

separation of executive, judicial and legislative separation of executive, judicial and legislative powers, as well as decentralized governance powers, as well as decentralized governance structures structures

In practice politics in Haiti lacks a predictable In practice politics in Haiti lacks a predictable system of rulessystem of rules

Political stability will remain illusive without the Political stability will remain illusive without the establishment of an equilibrium among the establishment of an equilibrium among the competing forces within societycompeting forces within society

Haitian politics swings between two key Haitian politics swings between two key dangers: dangers:

capture by privileged elites who harness government capture by privileged elites who harness government to protect their dominant position in society; and to protect their dominant position in society; and

populism that neglects the cou.’s long-term populism that neglects the cou.’s long-term institutional and eco. development while paying lip institutional and eco. development while paying lip service to the poorservice to the poor

Strong national leadership Strong national leadership is crucial to achieving a is crucial to achieving a

turnaround in Haititurnaround in Haiti Entrepreneurs of violence have taken advantage of Entrepreneurs of violence have taken advantage of political instability and weak state institutions to political instability and weak state institutions to manipulate popular grievances for political and manipulate popular grievances for political and criminal endscriminal ends

Breaking free of Haiti’s poverty-conflict trap will Breaking free of Haiti’s poverty-conflict trap will require capable national political leadership that is require capable national political leadership that is committed to the consolidation of democratic committed to the consolidation of democratic institutions and processesinstitutions and processes

In a context of very difficult socioeco. conditions, high In a context of very difficult socioeco. conditions, high social risks, defunct state institutions, extremely social risks, defunct state institutions, extremely limited budget resources, and political polarization, limited budget resources, and political polarization, Haiti’s leaders face enormous challengesHaiti’s leaders face enormous challenges

The 2006 electoral process, however, has created new The 2006 electoral process, however, has created new opportunities for reform, reconciliation and opportunities for reform, reconciliation and partnershipspartnerships

Summary: The TrapSummary: The TrapDemography, poverty, and inequality

Institutional capacity Political actors and strategies

Social risks, high demand

Opportunities for illegality,growth disabling

Institutional weakness, missing checks and balances

Political interference and corruption

Supply of grievances and recruits

Tactical mobilization

Conclusion: Conclusion: Breaking the Conflict-Breaking the Conflict-

Poverty TrapPoverty Trap Haiti’s social resilience and social capital and Haiti’s social resilience and social capital and

improvements in social indicators are keystones improvements in social indicators are keystones to draw upon in breaking the conflict-poverty to draw upon in breaking the conflict-poverty traptrap

The state has struggled to provide basic services The state has struggled to provide basic services to the population and has been dominated by a to the population and has been dominated by a small elite that has made limited investments in small elite that has made limited investments in infrastructure and basic servicesinfrastructure and basic services

Development, poverty reduction and conflict Development, poverty reduction and conflict prevention will not be possible without a focus prevention will not be possible without a focus on strengthening the state’s capacity to provide on strengthening the state’s capacity to provide basic public goods, including security and the basic public goods, including security and the rule of law rule of law

Its financial and managerial resources must be Its financial and managerial resources must be used with an exceptionally strong sense of used with an exceptionally strong sense of prioritypriority

Conclusion (2): Conclusion (2): Breaking the Conflict-Poverty Breaking the Conflict-Poverty

TrapTrap The most important factor for breaking out of Haiti’s The most important factor for breaking out of Haiti’s

poverty-conflict trap cannot be provided by donors but poverty-conflict trap cannot be provided by donors but only by Haitians themselves: good leadershiponly by Haitians themselves: good leadership

Because of the centrality of corruption in undermining Because of the centrality of corruption in undermining good leadership, transparency in public finances should good leadership, transparency in public finances should be a foundation for the Bank and other donors’ be a foundation for the Bank and other donors’ assistance to the new Haitian government assistance to the new Haitian government

Among the triangle of risk factors in the poverty-conflict Among the triangle of risk factors in the poverty-conflict trap, institutional capacity building is a key entry point trap, institutional capacity building is a key entry point for breaking the cycle; improving demographic and for breaking the cycle; improving demographic and socioeconomic outcomes and supporting political socioeconomic outcomes and supporting political dialogue remain longer-term objectives dialogue remain longer-term objectives

National planning and international assistance should National planning and international assistance should build on the existing International Cooperation build on the existing International Cooperation Framework by prioritizing resources and monitoring Framework by prioritizing resources and monitoring progress, such that both donors and government can be progress, such that both donors and government can be held accountable for resultsheld accountable for results