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ISBN: 978 0 643 09603 5

Simulation and Modelling of Urban and

Regional Transitions (SMURT):

Proceedings of a CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems

Workshop, Melbourne, December 4-6, 2007

Kostas Alexandridis and Xiaoming Wang

June 2008


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Enquiries should be addressed to:

Dr. Xiaoming Wang Dr. Kostas Alexandridis

Principal Research Scientist Regional Futures AnalystCSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems

Highett Laboratory Davies Laboratory, University Drive

Highett, VIC Douglas, QLD 4814, Australia

Phone: +61 3 9252 6328 Phone: +61 7 4753 8630

Fax: +61 3 9252 6249 Fax: +61 7 4753 8650

Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

ISBN: 978 0 643 09603 5

Copyright and Disclaimer 2008 CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems: Kostas Alexandridis and Xiaoming Wang. To the extent

permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be

reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO.

Important DisclaimerCSIRO advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based

on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be

incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be

made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To

the extent permitted by law, CSIRO (including its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to

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any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole)

and any information or material contained in it.


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Table of Contents

Preface .......................................................................................................................... 11. Pre-Workshop semantic analys is ...................................................................... 3

1.1 Questions and Responses ........................................................................................ 31.2 Semantic Analysis results ......................................................................................... 3

1.2.1 Semantic Mapping ................................................................................................ 31.2.2 Semantic Statistics ................................................................................................ 8

2. Workshop Program and Participants .............................................................. 132.1 Workshop Program ................................................................................................. 13

2.1.1 Tuesday, December 4th, 2007 - Welcome ......................................................... . 132.1.2 Wednesday, December 5th, 2007 ...................................................... ................. 132.1.3 Thursday, December 6th, 2007 .............................................................. ............. 15

2.2 Workshop Participants ............................................................................................ 162.2.1 Keynote Speakers ........................................................... .................................... 162.2.2 Participants .............................................................................................. ........... 18

2.3 Workshop Committee ............................................................................................. 182.3.1 Advisory Committee ............................................................... ............................. 182.3.2 Organizing Committee .............................................................. .......................... 19

3. Workshop Presentations .................................................................................. 203.1 The Challenge of Coastal Growth Alan Stokes (Keynote speech) ...................... 203.2 CSE Urban Science: Challenges and Opportunities Allen Kearns ...................... 203.3 SMURT Goals and Challenges Kostas Alexandridis and Xiaoming Wang ......... 203.4 Fundamentals of Urban and Regional Dynamics Prof. Peter Newman (keynote speech)

................................................................................................................................ 213.5

Modelling and Simulation Techniques to Support Understanding of Sustainable Socio-Technical Systems Prof. Peter Campbell (keynote speech) ............................... 21

3.6 Developing a Science Plan for Transitioning Cities Research Stream Xuemei Bai213.7 Overview of the Sustainable Communities Initiative Sean Rooney ..................... 223.8 A Review of Modelling in Urban and Regional Transitions Xiaoming Wang and Kostas

Alexandridis ............................................................................................................. 223.9 Impact Analysis: Modelling Capacities and Experience in CSE Scott Heckbert . 223.10 Using Diverse Modelling Methods to Forecast Land Use Change in the United States,

Eastern Europe, and East Africa: Current Trends and Sustainability Perspectives Prof.Bryan C. Pijanowski (keynote speech) ................................................................... 22

3.11 GIS-based Modelling and Visualization Tools to Assist Urban and Regional Planning andManagement Chris Pettit (keynote speech) ......................................................... 23

3.12 Facilitating Emergence? Developing resources to map existing systems, model andcreate future systems, and accelerate necessary transitions Neil Davidson et al.23

3.13 A Framework for Assessing Increased Patterns of Landscape Ecological Homogenizationand Social Heterogeneity in Agricultural Landscapes Undergoing Transition to Peri-UrbanLandscapes Neil MacLeod ................................................................................... 24

3.14 Agricultural Chain Resilience under Urbanizing Pressures Ainsley Archer ......... 243.15 Urbanizing Landscapes in Northern Queensland Cameron Fletcher .................. 253.16 NEMSIM as a Long Term Agent-based Simulation and Scenario Exploration Tool for

Electricity Market Development George Grozev .................................................. 253.17 Life Cycle Assessment of the Built Environment Selwyn Tucker ........................ 253.18 Simulation and Modelling of Sustainable Buildings Zhenggen Ren .................... 263.19 Report from the First Complex Dynamics of Urban Systems Workshop Tim Baynes 26


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3.20 Simulating the Behaviour of Adaptive Agents David Batten ................................ 263.21 Vulnerability of Urban Water Services in Pacific Island Countries Magnus Moglia263.22 Modelling the Uptake and Impact of Distributed Energy Simon Dunstall ............ 273.23 Nested Transport Systems for Viable Cities Freeman Cook ................................ 27

4. Workshop exercises and interactions ............................................................ 274.1 Fishbowl Discussion ............................................................................................... 27

4.1.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 274.1.2 Fishbowl discussion results ........................................................ ......................... 284.1.3 Fishbowl discussion highlights ....................................................................... ..... 33

4.2 Group Scribble storming A: Better models, research pathways to impact. ............ 344.2.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 344.2.2 Group 1 .............................................................................................. ................. 344.2.3 Group 2 .............................................................................................. ................. 354.2.4 Group 3 .............................................................................................. ................. 364.2.5 Group 4 .............................................................................................. ................. 36

4.3 Group scribble-storming B: Domain representation ................................................ 394.3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 394.3.2 Domain: Climate Change .............................................................................. ...... 394.3.3 Domain: Interfacing / Integration / Interoperability of Models .............................. 404.3.4 Domain: Beliefs, Attitudes and Behaviour .......................................................... . 404.3.5 Domain: Mobility, Demand Responsive ........................................................... ... 414.3.6 Domain: Innovation Diffusion Through Institutions .............................................. 424.3.7 Domain: Urban Energy Usage / Demand ............................................................ 434.3.8 Domain: Rurban Systems Design ....................................................................... 444.3.9 Domain: Water and Gas Transport in Landscapes ............................................. 44

4.4 Crucial Questions .................................................................................................... 454.4.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 454.4.2 Specific questions ............................................................................................... 454.4.3 Provocative Propositions ........................................................... .......................... 46

4.5 Graphical Linkages ................................................................................................. 464.5.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 464.5.2 Social Network Analysis .......................................................... ............................ 47

References .................................................................................................................. 56Appendix Workshop Presentations ....................................................................... 57


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List of Figures

Figure 1: A balanced semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions (group themesize:50%). ......................................................................................................................................... 4

Figure 2: A narrow semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions. Group theme sizes areset to 25% of theme concepts. ......................................................................................................... 5

Figure 3: A relatively narrow semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions. Group themesize is set to 33%). ........................................................................................................................... 6

Figure 4: A relative broad semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions. Group themesize is set to 75%. ............................................................................................................................ 7

Figure 5: A very broad semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions. Group theme size isset to 99%. ....................................................................................................................................... 8

Figure 6: Joint probabilities of semantic attributes versus classification categories in SMURT workshopquestions. ....................................................................................................................................... 11

Figure 7: Specific variable and classification group probabilities for semantic analysis of the SMURTworkshop questions. ....................................................................................................................... 12

Figure 8: The SMURT workshop participants during a working dinner. ................................................ 13Figure 9: A graphical representation of the fishbowl exercise design (upper part) and process (lower

part). The implementation of the fishbowl exercise for the SMURT workshop included twointeractive sessions from each of the inner and outer fishbowl circles. ......................................... 28

Figure 10: The process for developing better models (scribble-storming, group 2).............................. 36 Figure 11: A modeling system representation for mobility demand responsive (traffic model). ........... 42 Figure 12: The SMURT social network drawn by the workshops participants. .................................... 47Figure 13: The SMURT participant social network graph-theoretic representation. The line colors

represent different types of connections (Gray = General, Red = Methodology, Blue = Design,Orange = Society, Green = Environment, Magenta = Engagement). ............................................ 49

Figure 14: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the General category ofinteractions. .................................................................................................................................... 50

Figure 15: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the Methodological(modelling, simulation, particular tools and theories) category of interactions. ............................. 51

Figure 16: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the Design (engineering,transportation, etc) category of interactions. .................................................................................. 52

Figure 17: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the Society (social,economic, cognitive, etc) category of interactions. ........................................................................ 53

Figure 18: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the Environment (climatechange, environmental modelling, sustainability, etc) category of interactions. ............................ 54

Figure 19: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the Engagement (visioning,stakeholder engagement, empowerment, communication, etc) category of interactions. ............. 55


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List of Tables

Table 1: Semantic rankings of workshop questions 1 and 2. .................................................................. 9Table 2: Semantic rankings of workshop questions 3 and 4. ................................................................ 10

Table 3: A matrix representation of multiple factors informing better models (scribble storming, group

4). ................................................................................................................................................... 37Table 4: A matrix representation of multiple factors affecting the ability to perform better research

(scribble storming, group 4). .......................................................................................................... 37Table 5: Examples of pathways to impact (scribble storming, group 4). ............................................... 38Table 6: A classification look-up table for the categorical assignment of connections among participant

nodes. ............................................................................................................................................. 48Table 7: Key social network metrics for the SMURT participant representation. .................................. 49


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PREFACE

SMURT Workshop Proceedings, Melbourne 4-6 December 2007 June 2008 1

PREFACE

Within a highly complex and inter-connected world, enhancing simulation and visually displaying our

problems is an essential part of the ways for us to understand, respond and adapt to the dramatic

changes around us. Transitions in the structure and configuration of our urban and regional landscapes

are directly and indirectly interwoven with changes in the structure and character of our social

functions and groups. Simulation can inform management and policy makers, through successful and

interactive dialogue and communication, setting priorities with a clear understanding of the problems

that the society is facing in the future as well as assessing possible impacts of key decisions and the

severity of the problems to the society as a whole at all scales (local, regional, state and national).

Urban and regional transition is a human-driven process; unless we clearly understand the degree and

magnitude of transitions social significance, we cannot achieve levels of policy and management

responses that would enhance the social, economic, institutional and cognitive capacity of societies to

respond and adapt to the transitions. Simulation and modelling may provide an alternative pathway to

the answers.

Since the late 1960s and early 1970s, a good deal of research has been carried out on the analysis of

regional and urban systems in an effort to shed more light on their temporally dynamic and spatially

interactive behaviour, across multi-disciplinary domains. Recently, progress has been made showing

the tremendous potential of regional and urban analysis which could be unlocked through complex

science and interdisciplinary collaboration including economics, sociology, anthropology, geography,

social psychology, system dynamics, complexity theory and engineering, etc. Advances in computing

science have made the simulation of regional and urban transition more practical, providing powerful

tools to unearth more subtle emerging characteristics in the transition process.

This analysis has developed from the single market centre-based location theory, developed by von

Thunen toward a search for land uses to maximise profits, to input - output modelsas well as stocks

and flows models popular in the 1960s and 70s. These methodologies attempted to explain the

interactions in urban dynamics and created significant interest in regional and urban planning

communities, but also attracted criticisms in the past as a result of their reliance on aggregated inputs

and consequently difficulty in describing the complexities of urban dynamics in more subtle geo-

scales. Progress in computing, particularly in Geographic Information System (GIS), created a

platform for modern regional and urban simulation, largely based on cellular automata and agent-

based simulation in combination with traditional regional modelling. More importantly, emerging

behaviours of urban systems are able to be examined at this scale, as a result of the social behaviour ofhuman beings and their interaction with environments (social, political, economic, ecological and

technological). More recent advances in geographic information science and land use science

indicated a further paradigm shift in our understanding, practice and application of science in

this rapidly emerging multi- and cross-disciplinary research.

However, we are still facing considerable challenges that may include:

Full integration of interdisciplinary approaches for the simulation of regional and urbantransition;

Determination of emerging behaviours of regional and urban systems, interconnected inphysical, temporal and spatial domains;


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PREFACE

2 SMURT Workshop Proceedings, Melbourne 4-6 December 2007 June 2008

Application of regional and urban transition simulations in relation to real scenarios based onexisting knowledge and information;

Validation of the accuracy of the simulations, providing a reliable prediction of regional andurban transitions.

It becomes critical to develop a practical approach, but also maintain the accuracy in the simulation of

complex regional and urban dynamics, in order to identify the vulnerability of our regional and urban

systems, and to help develop more effective policies to secure their sustainability.

Facing the challenges, the workshop of simulation and modelling of urban and regional transition

(SMURT) aims to achieve an understanding of existing regional and urban models and their analysis

techniques, and identify pathways or roadmaps to apply the simulation to regional and urban policy

development, planning and management in the real world.

The Proceedings summarises the workshop, including semantic analysis of the participants responses

to four questions of SMURT in chapter one, introduction of workshop program and participants in

chapter two, abstracts of workshop presentation in chapter three, and results of workshop exercises

and interactions in chapter four. All presentation details are provided in appendix A. Presentations by

keynote speakers, on the subjects of the challenge of coastal growth, fundamentals of urban and

regional dynamics, modelling and simulation techniques to support understanding of sustainable

socio-technological systems, using diverse modelling methods to forecast land use change, and GIS-

based modelling and visualisation tools to assist urban and regional planning and management,

highlights research needs, critical issues, and approaches in urban and regional sustainable planning

and development. They were all further addressed by other presentations. We hope the information

provided by the proceedings may become a useful source for the research in SMURT.

Kostas Alexandridis and Xiaoming WangJune 2008


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PRE-WORKSHOP SEMANTIC ANALYSIS


1. PRE-WORKSHOP SEMANTIC ANALYSIS

1.1 Questions and Responses

Before the workshop, the perspective participants were asked to submit their responses to four

important questions regarding simulation and modelling of urban and regional sustainability

transitions. Specifically, the questions were:

1. What do you see as the main challenges for urban/regional sustainability research?

2. What would be appropriate scientific concepts and methodologies to address these challenges?

3. What tools you would be looking for in simulation and modelling of urban and regionaltransitions?

4. How can we ensure to address the needs of the key stakeholders and to effectively improve

decision and policy-making processes?

The questions were designed to address a number of workshop goals:

o Inform further design and facilitate discussions during the workshop.

o Introduce participants to the goals and focus of the workshop.

o Allow for building of collective and common understanding of challenges, methodologies,tools and communication aspects of the SMURT goals.

o Evaluate the capacity and composition of the workshop participants.

The responses received from each participant were used to conduct an ontological semantic concept

analysis (Mika, 2007; Shamsfard and Barforoush, 2004). The analysis conducted using the

Leximancer software model (Leximancer, 2007), a Bayesian unsupervised classifier (see also Freeman

and Yin, 2004) of natural lexicographic textual content. The results are shown below.

1.2 Semantic Analysis results

1.2.1 Semantic Mapping

The semantic classification analysis revealed a number of concepts contained in the responses to the

workshop questions by the participants. Classification theme boundaries can vary. Classification

themes convey the broader circle of influence of the joint distribution of variables or drivers based on

the mapping of their respective semantic distances. A balanced classification theme threshold of 50%,

is shown in Figure 1. It contains five major theme categories, namely emphasis on systems, models,

development, sustainability and policy. Each of these themes contains several semantic identifiers,

which differentiate the conceptual and ontological semantics of their influence.


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Figure 1: A balanced semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions (group theme size:50%).

Additional theme classification thresholds are explored in the following figures. Figure 2 showcases a

narrow semantic classification of the data (theme sizes 25%). Fifteen key themes emerge through the

classification, with the key concepts modelling approaches and urban ranking high within the

classification themes.


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Figure 2: A narrow semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions. Group theme sizes are set to 25%

of theme concepts.

The following Figure 3 illustrates the changes in semantic theme allocations when the theme size

(influences) is increased to 33% of the classification categories. Models, systems and urban concepts

became relatively more influential as drivers of the semantic classifications. The development of

research tools are relatively disconnected from the thematic domain of urban systems and models in

this classification scheme.


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Figure 3: A relatively narrow semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions. Group theme size is set

to 33%).

Increasing the semantic classification theme size to 75% (Figure 4), results in three broad semantic

categories: models, urban and development. A significant overlap exists between urban and models (in

terms of social system approaches), whilst development of these tools and their impacts seem to be

relatively disconnected from the other two concepts.


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Figure 4: A relative broad semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions. Group theme size is set to

75%.

Finally, Figure 5 shows the most broad semantic classifications of the data (theme size is 99%). This

categorization reveals the persistence of two broad themes in the analysis, the ones that focus on urban

and modelling issues respectively. The overlap between these two categories is also increased

compared to the previous theme size, and reflects the potential influence of scientific models and tools

to urban issues such as sustainability, systems, or social and economic issues.


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Figure 5: A very broad semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions. Group theme size is set to

99%.

1.2.2 Semantic Statistics

The results summaries for the four SMURT workshop questions are:

Results summary for Question 1 (shown in left part of Table 1): Regional research using urban

models to address sustainability challenges. Focusing on system changes and interactionspertaining economic, policy, and social system approaches. We need complex analysis tools

that address important environmental and land use impacts.

Results summary for Question 2 (shown in right part of Table 1): Emphasis on models and

system approaches to urban sustainability. Analysis of regional interactions to address

research challenges in social and economic development as well as land use change. Providing

appropriate tools for simulation in complex policy environments is important


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Table 1: Semantic rankings of workshop questions 1 and 2.

Similarly,

Results summary for Question 3 (shown in the left part of Table 2): Various models and tools

for urban systems regional environmental simulations. Such approaches to sustainability

policies are important for the development and analysis of complex land interactions, as well

as in social systems research.

Results summary for Question 4 (shown in the right part of Table 2): The responses obtainedfor this question bare some similarities with question 3, but are more directed towards using

scientific tools in applied and empirical settings of interest to key stakeholders, decision and

policy makers. Providing models using urban regional research approaches to sustainability.

Development of tools for systems interactions, economic and policy analysis, and simulation

of social impacts.

Concept Count Concept Count

regional 7 38.8% models 12 66.6%

research 7 38.8% systems 7 38.8%

urban 6 33.3% approaches 7 38.8%

models 6 33.3% sustainability 5 27.7%

sustainability 5 27.7% urban 4 22.2%

challenges 4 22.2% analysis 4 22.2%

change 4 22.2% regional 4 22.2%

systems 3 16.6% interactions 3 16.6%

interactions 3 16.6% challenges 3 16.6%

economic 3 16.6% research 3 16.6%

policy 3 16.6% social 3 16.6%

social 3 16.6% development 2 11.1%

approaches 2 11.1% economic 2 11.1%

complex 2 11.1% land 2 11.1%

tools 2 11.1% change 2 11.1%

important 2 11.1% tools 2 11.1%

environment 1 5.5% simulation 2 11.1%

analysis 1 5.5% environment 1 5.5%

land 1 5.5% complex 1 5.5%

impacts 1 5.5% policy 1 5.5%

important 1 5.5%

Selected Concept: Question 1

Total Count = 20

Relative Count


Total Count = 21

What do you see as the main challenges for

urban/regional sustainability research?

What would be appropriate scientific concepts and

methodologies to address these challenges?

Relative Coun t


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Table 2: Semantic rankings of workshop questions 3 and 4.

The summaries and their associated probabilities were also broadly classified into three thematic

groups: economic, environmental and social. The following figures showcase the joint probabilities of

semantic attributes versus the classification theme groups (Figure 6) as well as the specific

probabilities of the semantic attributes and their mean theme performance (Figure 7).

Concept Count Concept Count

models 13 86.6% models 7 33.3%

urban 5 33.3% urban 3 14.2%

tools 5 33.3% regional 3 14.2%

systems 4 26.6% research 3 14.2%

environment 3 20.0% approaches 2 9.5%

regional 3 20.0% sustainability 2 9.5%

simulation 3 20.0% tools 2 9.5%

approaches 2 13.3% systems 1 4.7%

sustainability 2 13.3% development 1 4.7%

policy 2 13.3% interactions 1 4.7%

important 2 13.3% economic 1 4.7%

development 1 6.6% analysis 1 4.7%

analysis 1 6.6% policy 1 4.7%

land 1 6.6% simulation 1 4.7%

complex 1 6.6% impacts 1 4.7%

research 1 6.6% social 1 4.7%

social 1 6.6%


Total Count = 17

Relative Count


Total Count = 16

Relative Count

What Tools you would be looking for in modeling

simulation of urban and regional transitions?

How can we ensure to address the needs of the key

stakeholders and to effectively improve decision and

pollicy-making processes?


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Figure 6: Joint probabilities of semantic attributes versus classification categories in SMURT workshop questions.

0

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Figure 7: Specific variable and classification group probabilities for semantic analysis of the SMURT workshop

questions.

0

.1

.2

.3

.4

P(var)

Attribute Variable Category Variable

mod

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WORKSHOP PROGRAM AND PARTICIPANTS


2. WORKSHOP PROGRAM AND PARTICIPANTS

The workshop was held in Melbourne, 4-6 December 2007. The SMURT workshop included 12

concrete sessions over two full days. Six of these sessions provided the necessary science background

for modelling and simulation in urban and regional sustainability transitions. Three sessions discussedthe overall goals and strategic directions of the CSE urban systems program. Another three sessions

provided the opportunities to participants to engage in structured dialogue and facilitated exercises that

aimed to address key questions and challenges related to the modelling and simulation of urban and

regional sustainability transitions. Six invited keynote speeches were given, as well as 16 contributed

presentations that addressed a number of modelling and simulation approaches and methodological

frameworks. The detailed workshop program is listed in the next session.

Figure 8: The SMURT workshop participants during a working dinner.

2.1 Workshop Program

2.1.1 Tuesday, December 4th, 2007 - Welcome

Opening Dinner, Welcome, and Keynote Speech

Keynote Speech: Alan Stokes (Executive Director, National Sea Change Taskforce). Title:

Sense of Place in Urban Australia

2.1.2 Wednesday, December 5th, 2007

CSE Urban Science: Workshop Goals and Challenges (Session Coordinator:Matthew Inman)

CSE Urban Science: Prospects and Opportunities Allen Kearns

SMURT Goals and Challenges Xiaoming Wang & Kostas Alexandridis

Questions and Discussion


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Workshop Structure/Process Andrew Rixon (Workshop Facilitator)

Tea Break and Graffiti Wall (Connection)

Scientific Fundamentals in Urban and Regional Dynamics (Session Coordinator:Allen Kearns)

Keynote Presentation: Prof Peter Newman (Director, Institute for Sustainability and

Technology Policy, Murdoch University). Title: Fundamentals of Urban and Regional

Dynamics

Keynote Presentation: Prof Peter Campbell (University of South Australia). Title: Modelling

and Simulation Techniques to Support Understanding of Sustainable Socio-Technical

Systems.

Questions and Discussion, Graffiti Wall

Strategic Science for Urban and Regional Dynamics (Session Coordinator: TimBaynes)

Process and Mechanism of Urban Transition: An Evolutionary Perspective Xuemei Bai

Overview of the Sustainable Communities Initiative Sean Rooney

A Review of Modelling in Urban and Regional Transitions Xiaoming Wang and Kostas

Alexandridis

Policy Impact Analysis: Modelling Capacities and Experience in CSE Scott Heckbert

Lunch and Graffiti Wall

Approaches for Understanding Urban and Regional Transitioning (SessionCoordinator: Kostas Alexandridis)

Keynote Presentation: Assoc Prof Bryan Pijanowski (Director, Human-Environment

Modeling & Analysis Laboratory, Purdue University, USA). Title: Using Diverse Modelling

Methods to Forecast Land Use Change in the United States, Eastern Europe, and East Africa:

Current Trends and Sustainability Perspectives.

Keynote Presentation: Chris Pettit (Statewide Leader, Spatial Sciences, PIRVic DPI). Title:

GIS-based Modelling and Visualization Tools to Assist Urban and Regional Planning and

Management

Neil Davidson, et al. (Sustainability Broker Collaborative Innovation Systems). Title:

Facilitating Emergence? Developing resources to map existing systems, model and create

future systems, and accelerate necessary transitions

Tea Break and Graffiti Wall


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Parallel Session A: Urban and Regional Transitions (Session Coordinator: GrahamTurner)

A Framework for Assessing Increased Patterns of Landscape Ecological Homogenization and

Social Heterogeneity in Agricultural Landscapes Undergoing Transition to Peri-UrbanLandscapes Neil MacLeod

Agricultural Chain Resilience under Urbanizing Pressures Ainsley Archer

Urbanizing Landscapes in Northern Queensland Cameron Fletcher

Parallel Session B: Built Environment (Session coordinator: Pramesh Chand)

NEMSIM as a Long Term Agent-based Simulation and Scenario Exploration Tool for

Electricity Market Development George Grozev

Life Cycle Assessment of the Built Environment Selwyn Tucker

Simulation and Modelling of Sustainable Buildings Zhenggen Ren

Break and Graffiti Wall

Facilitated Dialogue: Challenges, Opportunities and Gaps (Facilitator: Andrew Rixon)

Facilitated dialogue

2.1.3 Thursday, December 6th, 2007

Special Session for Complex Dynamics of Urban Systems (Session Coordinator:Scott Heckbert)

Report from the First Complex Dynamics of Urban Systems Workshop Tim Baynes

Simulating the Behaviour of Adaptive Agents David Batten

Vulnerability of Urban Water Services in Pacific Island Countries Magnus Moglia

Modelling the Uptake and Impact of Distributed Energy Simon Dunstall

Nested Transport Systems for Viable Cities Freeman Cook

Question Time

Group Exercise and Facilitated Dialogue: Capabilities, Challenges, Opportunities,Gaps and Pathways (Facilitator: Andrew Rixon)

Group exercise and facilitated dialogue


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Developing a Science Plan for Transitioning Cities Research Stream Xuemei Bai

Group Exercise and Facilitated Dialogue: Capabilities, Challenges, Opportunities,Gaps and Pathways (Facilitator: Andrew Rixon)

Closing Allen Kearns / Matthew Inman

2.2 Workshop Participants

A short overview of the workshop participant bios is provided below. The bios are arranged in

alphabetical order by participants surname.

2.2.1 Keynote Speakers

Campbell, Peter: Professor of Systems Modelling and Simulation, Centre of

Excellence for Defence and Industry Systems Capability (CEDISC), Defence andSystems Institute (DASI), University of South Australia

Professor of Systems Modelling and Simulation in the Defense and Systems Institute (DASI) at the

University of South Australia from 2004 and founding member of the Centre of Excellence for

Defense and Industry Systems Capability (CEDISC), a new government funded centre for up-skilling

government and industry in systems engineering and systems integration. Continued association with

Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) as Simulation Technology Applications Advisor to the Decision

and Information Sciences Division. Through mid 2007, consultant to CSIRO Complex Systems

Science Initiative to introduce complex system simulation tools for agricultural landscape planning.

From 1994 to 2000 Professor Campbell served as Director of the Advanced Computer Applications

Center in Argonne National Laboratory, focusing on simulation-based decision-support tools for

application in logistics, battlefield environmental representation, hydrological planning, healthcare,

and meteorological forecasting applications, including new technical developments for complex

adaptive system applications involving human interactions with systems and organizations. His prior

affiliations with Decision and Information Sciences Division of Argonne National Laboratory, EES

Division and Private organizations and consulting companies.

Newman, Peter: Director of the Institute for Sustainability and Technology Policy,Murdoch University

Peter Newman is the Professor of City Policy and Director of the Institute for Sustainability and

Technology Policy, at Murdoch University. In 2006/7 he was in the US as a Fulbright Scholar at the

University of Virginia Charlottesville, examining innovations in sustainability in US cities, regions

and states. This is based on comparative work he did in Western Australia at the political level when

he worked with the Premier of WA from 2001 to 2004 to develop the State Sustainability Strategy;

this was the first state in the world with such a strategy, covering 42 areas of government. In 2004-5

Peter was the NSW Sustainability Commissioner assisting with the production of the Metropolitan

Strategy. He is well known in Perth for his work in rebuilding Perths rail system which is now seen as

a model for modern cities. Peters academic work includes his book with Jeff Kenworthy

'Sustainability and Cities: Overcoming Automobile Dependence' which was launched in the White

House in 1999 and his 2001 co-authored book is called Back on Track: Rethinking Australian and


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New Zealand Transport. Peter is the author of the chapter on Greening Urban Transportation in

Worldwatch Institutes State of the World, 2007.

Pettit, Chris: Statewide Leader Spatial Sciences, Primary Industries Research

Victoria (PIRVic), Department of Primary Industries.

Dr Pettit is the Statewide Leader - Spatial Sciences and Principal Research Scientist within the

Department of Primary Industries Victoria. Dr Pettit maintains honorary appointment at the University

of Melbourne as Associate Professor in Geomatics and he is a Senior Research Associate of RMIT

University. Dr Pettits spatial sciences groups in DPI applies a range of spatial technologies including

spatial decision support systems, visualisation, remote sensing, GIS across a number of natural

resource management application areas including climate change, water use efficiency, agricultural

productivity and peri-urban land use change. Dr Pettit has an international track record in the area of

spatial planning and decision support systems and visualisation across a number of theme areas

including: urban planning, climate change, natural resource management, and knowledge

management. Dr Pettit is the Associate Editor for the International Journal Applied Spatial Analysisand Policy and is the scientific secretary for the ISPRS WG II/4 on Spatial Planning and Decision

Support Systems. Dr Pettit completed his PhD in 2003 where he developed a number of land use

change scenarios for Hervey Bay using GIS and the What if? Planning Support System. Dr Pettit has

published over 50 peer reviewed book chapter, journal conference papers over the last 10 years. He

has participated in more than 20 International conferences in a range of capacities including keynote

speaker, conference organiser, session organiser, session chair and presenter. Dr Pettit is the author to

the ESRI International online course Introduction to urban and regional planning using ArcGIS

where more than 9000 students from around the world have registered or completed.

Pijanowski, Bryan C.: Associate Professor, Director of Human-Environment

Modelling and Analysis Laboratory (HEMA), and Discovery Center for theEnvironment, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA.

Bryan C. Pijanowski is currently Associate Professor in the Department of Forestry and Natural

Resources at Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA. His research interests focus on

understanding the drivers and consequences of land use change using a diversity of approaches that

span machine learning, role playing simulation, geographic information systems and agent-based

models. He has developed and applied simulation models to many areas of the world, including the

United States, Central and Eastern Europe, East Africa and South East Asia. Dr. Pijanowski maintains

a rigorous research program funded by the National Science Foundation, US Environmental Protection

Agency, NASA, and several foundations. He also works closely with local stakeholders who help

frame, analyze and use his model results in decision making. Many of his models are being used to

forecast several decades in the future in the hope of understanding consequences of land use actions

that impact sustainability. Dr. Pijanowski is also co-Director of the Purdue Sustainable Land Use

Systems project that is designed to develop new approaches to understanding sustainability and land

use change in the United States.

Stokes, Alan: Executive Director, National Sea Change Taskforce

Alan Stokes is the Executive Director of the National Sea Change Taskforce. His professional

background is in communications, media and the local government sector, having worked as

communications executive with the City of Casey in Melbourne. He has also provided strategic


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communications advice to local government authorities in Victoria and Queensland. Alan played a key

role in the initial formation of the sea change group of councils, beginning with the organization of the

Sea Change Summit in February 2004 and the establishment of the sea change taskforce of CEOs. He

subsequently managed the formal constitution of the National Sea Change Taskforce, in November

2004. The National Sea Change Taskforce was established as a national body to represent the interestsof coastal councils and communities experiencing the effects of rapid population and tourism growth.

2.2.2 Participants

CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems (CSE):

Alexandridis, Kostas

Archer, Ainsley

Bai, Xumei

Boulaire, Fanny

Chand, PrameshFletcher, Cameron

Grozev, George

Inman, Matthew

Kearns, Allen

McFallan, Stephen

MacLeod, Neil

Levinson, Matthew

Nguyen, MinhRooney, Sean

Ren, Zhenggen

Schandl, Heinz

Straton, Anna

Ton, Tu

Tucker, Selwyn

Turner, Graham

Wang, XiaomingYum, Kwok

Zhou, Mingwei

CSIRO Complex Systems Science (CSS):

Batten, David

Baynes, Tim

Cook, Freeman

Cook, Steve

Heckbert, Scott

Dunstall, Simon

Moglia, Magnus

Williams, Rachel

External Organizations:

Blake, Charles (Energy

technologist)

Pijanowski, Bryan (Purdue

university, USA)

Campbell, Peter (University of

South Australia)

Davidson, Neil (Collaborative

Innovation System)

Hulsman, Kees (Ecology,

Griffith University)

MacMartin, Duncan (Social

Transformation)

Mochelle, Richard (Architect,

QUT)

Newman, Peter (Murdoch

University)

Pettit, Chris (Department of

Primary Industries)

Stokes, Allan (National Sea

Change Task Force)

2.3 Workshop Committee

2.3.1 Advisory Committee

Bai, Xuemei (CSE, Gunghalin

Foliente, Greg (CSE, Highet)

Heckbert Scott (CSE, Townsville)

Inman, Matthew (CSE, North Ryde)

Kearns, Allen (CSE, Gungahlin)

Lynam, Tim (CSE, Townsville)

Schandl, Heinz (CSE, Gungahlin)

Turner, Graham (CSE, Gungahlin)


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2.3.2 Organizing Commit tee

Wang, Xiaoming (CSE, Highet) Alexandridis, Kostas (CSE, Townsville)

Baynes, Tim (CSE, North Ryde)


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WORKSHOP PRESENTATIONS


3. WORKSHOP PRESENTATIONS1

3.1 The Challenge of Coastal Growth Alan Stokes (Keynote

speech)Mr. Alan Stokes, addressed the workshop participants during the opening dinner of the workshop. He

laid out the current major challenges for research and policy related to coastal growth in Australia, as

they are perceived from the National Sea Change Taskforce. Mr. Stokes provided a number of relevant

statistics on the growth of coastal regions in Australia, including demographic and population changes,

housing and lifestyle preferences, and community-based characteristics of growth. Finally, Mr. Stokes

provided an insight and roadmap for the policy making framework required to address these

challenges, both for the local governments and communities, as well as for the Australian Federal

Government.

3.2 CSE Urban Science: Challenges and Opportunit ies AllenKearns

CSIRO has made significant progress in developing a suite of national flagships that address urban

energy, water, climate adaptation and health issues. The prospects and opportunities for CSE Urban

Science researchers are to work with urban domain experts to develop and implement systems

integration frameworks that demonstrate the value of thinking across multiple disciplines and

jurisdictions found in urban environments. To achieve this goal will require skills and techniques such

as simulation modelling, community engagement, action research partnerships, urban science,

engineering and technology, urban informatics and systems thinking techniques that respond to the

dynamic interactions between disciplines and the complex components of cities. The three big urbanscience opportunities that I see ahead are as follows: Adapting our present and future urban ways of

life to living with less oil in what are presently car-dependent cities and suburbs; Rejuvenating our

existing buildings and urban infrastructure to reduce urban resource use per person (energy, water,

construction materials, food) by 20% by 2020, and; Planning and design of safe, attractive, sustainable

and secure urban environments with the design goal of improved health and well-being.

3.3 SMURT Goals and Challenges Kostas Alexandrid is andXiaoming Wang

Within a highly complex and inter-connected world, enhancing simulation and modelling of urban andregional sustainability transitions is an essential part of the ways for us to understand, respond and

adapt to the dramatic changes around us. Transitions in the structure and configuration of our urban

and regional landscapes are directly and indirectly interwoven with changes in the structure and

character of our social functions and groups. Simulation can inform management and policy makers,

through successful and interactive dialogue and communication, setting priorities with a clear

understanding of the problems that the society is facing in the future as well as assessing possible

1The full workshop presentations are provided in the Appendix A.


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impacts of key decisions and the severity of the problems to the society as a whole at all scales

(local, regional, state and national). Urban and regional transition is a human-driven process. Unless

we clearly understand the degree and magnitude of transitions social significance, we cannot achieve

levels of policy and management responses that would enhance the social, economic, institutional and

cognitive capacity of societies to respond and adapt to the transitions. Simulation and modelling mayprovide an alternative pathway to the answers. The workshop aims to establish a shared appreciation

of the most pressing sustainability issues and what research and modelling techniques are appropriate

for developing and communicating potential transition solutions.

3.4 Fundamentals of Urban and Regional Dynamics Prof. PeterNewman (keynote speech)

This presentation will examine how transport planning priorities and planning systems drive city form

and development. These physical planning directions however are part of a cultural, economic and

political milieu in cities that is constantly being remade. The new constraints of climate change andpeak oil as well as the need to ensure better local ecological outcomes, will mean cities need to be

remade again. Signs of how this will be needed are happening. The way that physical planning can

change to provide the tools that are culturally, economically and politically relevant is the task of

urban policy advocates and researchers. A core idea will be to examine how the Marchetti Constant on

travel time budgets can be maintained in alternative, more sustainable urban forms based on centers

and corridors of transit. Data required to model this will include the transit speeds that are required in

each corridor and the population and job numbers in each centre to make an urban system work viably

in an economic sense. The cultural and political processes required will need to include community

engagement so that the issues of density, mix and transit quality are easily understood as key

interlinking variables for sustainability and community-based social marketing is developed in an

urban sustainability package.

3.5 Modelling and Simulation Techniques to SupportUnderstanding of Sustainable Socio-Technical Systems Prof. Peter Campbell (keynote speech)

Gaining an in-depth understanding of sustainability requires the consideration of the complex non-

linear interactions between physical, biological and socio-economic issues and their effects.

Experimentation with real systems is no longer possible, leaving large scale simulation as one of the

most useful tools we have to aid in understanding such complex interactions. The presentation will

provide an over view of several approaches to the development of useful models and the

characteristics they should have, and will illustrate with a number of examples.

3.6 Developing a Science Plan for Transit ioning Cities ResearchStream Xuemei Bai

The changes in urban environment (and virtually all other urban system performances) are the result of

a complex interaction among the system components, and is influenced by external factors beyond the

urban system. While some attempts were made to identify patterns of such change, it is important to

recognize these patterns as the outcome of various process and mechanisms underlying them, and that

they should not be regarded as a stylized one that is to be followed by other cities. This presentation


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explores how evolutionary perspective can contribute to the understanding of urban transition, from

pattern to underlying mechanism.

3.7 Overview of the Sustainable Communit ies Initiative SeanRooney

The Sustainable Communities Initiative (SCI) is a three year 'action learning' program designed to

develop and deliver innovative and integrated solutions to enable Australian communities to realize

sustainable social, economic and environmental vitality. The SCI brings together participants from

across governments, businesses, NGO's and CSIRO, to work in partnership with communities, to

develop and deliver innovative and integrated responses to local sustainability challenges and

opportunities. The SCI provides a vehicle for to develop and test applications in urban and regional

transitions.

3.8 A Review of Modelling in Urban and Regional Transit ions Xiaoming Wang and Kostas Alexandridis

The presentation will give an overall overview on the modelling and simulation techniques, which has

been applied in the urban and regional settings and dynamics. Understanding the strengths and

weaknesses of the models, techniques and methods both at the theoretical/methodological levels and at

the applied/real-world settings is essential for crossing inter- and cross-disciplinary science

boundaries. How to model urban and regional dynamics at different temporal and spatial scales,

operate within different knowledge and information domains, and encapsulate a range of

environmental, social and economic dimensions of urban and regional change is the key issues that

should be developed in modeling and simulation methodology.

3.9 Impact Analysis: Modelling Capacities and Experience inCSE Scott Heckbert

CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems has a high level of capability and experience in modelling and

simulation, although the application to urban systems has been limited. Our researchers have used a

suite of techniques including but not limited to: computable general equilibrium, agent-based models,

optimisation, Stocks and Flows Framework, network analysis, cellular automata, systems dynamics,

and others. Each technique is suited to different questions, and/or scales of resolution. CSE projects

have realised impact through proving policy impact assessment, where simulation modelling is used to

assess the outcomes of various policy interventions that a management body can implement. There is a

challenge to make the modelling relevant for policy use, particularly through empirical validation of

the models we use. Specific examples will be given from experiences using agent-based techniques,

identifying ways to empirically calibrate / validate these models. This presentation will attempt to map

modelling capacity within CSE to identified research areas in urban simulation and modelling, and

highlight the need to align research needs with the list of requirements and deliverables involved in

different modelling techniques.

3.10 Using Diverse Modelling Methods to Forecast Land UseChange in the United States, Eastern Europe, and East


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Africa: Current Trends and Sustainabil it y Perspectives Prof. Bryan C. Pijanowski (keynote speech)

We have analysed land use/cover change data from three diverse areas of the world: the Upper

Midwest USA, Eastern Europe and East Africa. Rates and patterns of land use change vary

tremendously reflecting the diverse nature of the socio-ecological drivers of change present in these

regions. Rates and patterns are also scale dependent and the need to understand the complex

interactions of drivers and the scales at which they operate is at the forefront of research in land

change modelling. I review the important features of land use change in each of these three regions

and then show how these are being used to build forecast models that are being used to understand

how land use impacts climate change and hydrologic cycles. We also show how diverse methods, such

as agent based modelling, role playing simulation and machine learning tools can be used

simultaneously to improve out understand of this complex process.

3.11 GIS-based Modelling and Visualization Tools to Assist Urbanand Regional Planning and Management Chris Pettit(keynote speech)

One of the greatest challenges facing planners and policy-makers today it the ability to synthesize vast

amounts of information in order to envision future sustainable land use scenarios. Since the advent of

the first computer based planning tools in the late 1950s and early 1960s, deterministic mathematical

models were developed to predict spatial changes in land use patterns. In the 1970s these deterministic

models became more and more complicated and less transparent, which led to Lees (1973) large scale

urban models. Since that time there has been an emergence of non-deterministic modelling techniques

such as Cellular Automata, underpinning urban growth models such as SLEUTH, and the arrival of

collaborative GIS based Planning Support Systems such as What if?. More recently we have seen an

increase in visualization technologies such as gaming engines (e.g. Torque and UnReal) and Earth

Browers (e.g. Google Earth and Nasa Worldwind) as a potential tools to engage planners and policy-

makers. This presentation will discuss the potential application of a number of spatial planning models

and visualisation interfaces for making better land use decisions. The presentation will examine the

current state of the art urban and regional planning models and will discuss some of the challenges

facing urban and regional sustainability research from the perspective of end user adoption.

3.12 Facili tating Emergence? Developing resources to mapexisting systems, model and create future systems, andaccelerate necessary t ransit ions Neil Davidson et al.

Rising concern about multiple and interconnected crises facing the planet has seen an increasing

number of publications discussing the problem. The science is becoming more certain daily and it has

become increasingly apparent that business-as-usual approaches will not provide the needed solutions.

Change would be difficult even if we had ample time, but the impending crises make rapid change

imperative. Communities at various scales recognising the need to change are starting to develop their

own solutions. However there are few resources to inform communities and government of how we

might achieve the systemic solutions required to address such systemic problems. Some discourse has

covered the need for transformative change, but recent discussions have also underlined some of the

most critical issues that would-be change agents face, including: constraints of institutional inertia on


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the adaptive capabilities of complex, dynamic social systems; cognitive dissonance between many key

progressives understanding of the imperatives for rapid large-scale change, and their assumptions

about how transformational change might be achieved; an apparent reduction in the time and space

available to make informed decisions during changing times, and with less informed debate and

participation from open-minded contributors. Even among those most informed of the perils and needsfor urgent solutions there is potential for a dangerous collision between players with often quite

sophisticated understanding of aspects of the science underpinning sustainability and those with less-

scientific social transformative change agendas. We need to create the critical mass required to

facilitate informed debate, develop viable visions, and create systemic solutions and resource the rapid

transformations required to more sustainable human systems. A group of players in Southeast

Queensland is currently developing the nucleus of a Systems Design Network at the interface between

government, community and industry to help meet this urgent need.

3.13 A Framework for Assessing Increased Patterns of Landscape

Ecological Homogenization and Social Heterogeneity inAgricultural Landscapes Undergoing Transition to Peri-UrbanLandscapes Neil MacLeod

Conventional models of vegetation and landscape change derived form ecological studies of

agricultural landscapes typically provide a misleading picture of landscape change in peri-urban

landscapes. Additional dimensions, including subdivision of management scales, human population,

and the extent of hard infrastructure add considerable scope for predicting ecological trajectories in

these landscapes.

3.14 Agricul tural Chain Resilience under Urbanizing Pressures Ainsley Archer

Sustainable agricultural systems are fundamental to a large proportion of the world economies and

critical for stable urban communities. As with other systems such as manufacturing and transport,

operations research methodologies have been extensively applied to different agriculture value chains,

particularly in the production and processing sectors. Despite these extensive applications that are

aimed at increasing profitability or reducing costs, industry adoption has been minimal. The common

reasons behind this lack of adoption, include: biophysical and climatic uncertainty; complex chain

ownership structures; over-simplification of value chain models; and lack of industry involvement in

the development of the tools. A further key reason, which is less understood, is that increasing

efficiency is often either not the primary goal in agriculture value chains or difficult to achieve using

operations research methodologies alone. Resilience, or the ability to return to a desirable state in the

event of a value chain disturbance, is often a greater need for participants in agriculture chains when

striving for sustainability. We explore the trade-off between whole-of-system resilience versus

efficiency in agriculture value chains, and suggest how operations research can be a valuable resource

within a multi-disciplinary methodology to address some of the challenges.


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3.15 Urbanizing Landscapes in Northern Queensland CameronFletcher

The Reef Water Quality Protection Plan aims at halting and reversing the decline in water quality

entering the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) by 2015. Population growth rates in GBR catchments are,

however, amongst the largest in Australia and expected to lead to substantial changes in land use, a

subsequent decline in water quality and degradation of the GBR ecosystem. This paper explores

welfare gains that can be obtained from population growth in a linked terrestrial and marine

ecosystem, using a deterministic optimal control approach in which we equate terrestrial benefits from

population induced residential development patterns and, subsequent, marine costs from water

pollution associated with these development patterns. Patterns of land use development are thereby

explored using a classic urban economic model with environmental amenities, while associated water

quality impacts are assessed using a water quality model. For a case study catchment in the Wet

Tropics of Australia, results show that the welfare maximizing population size depends to a large

extent on whether downstream costs from water pollution are taken into account. Ignoring

downstream costs from water pollution leads to welfare maximizing populations that are multiple

times the current catchment population. Accounting for these downstream costs, however, leads to

welfare maximizing populations that are only a fraction larger than the current catchment population.

3.16 NEMSIM as a Long Term Agent-based Simulation andScenario Exploration Tool for Electr icity Market Development George Grozev

This presentation aims to share some experience about NEMSIM an agent-based simulation tool for

Australias National Electricity Market, which is an advanced stage of development by CSIRO Energy

Transformed Flagship Program. This tool captures complex interactions between market participants,

technical infrastructures and the natural environment. It uses computer-simulated agents to represent

the decision making of power companies. It provides a set of demand models consistent with climate

change scenarios and simulates the spot market based on bidding and dispatch over 30 minute

intervals. It uses several open sources Java libraries for sophisticated data manipulations and advanced

graphical user interface.

3.17 Life Cycle Assessment of the Buil t Environment SelwynTucker

As concern over the environmental impacts of residential housing construction grows, there is a push

to quantify and compare the environmental performance of the entire life cycle of buildings from

production of materials, fabrication, construction, operation and final end-of-life disposal or recycling

to support sustainability decisions. As well as emissions to the environment during operation of a

building, production of building products make major contributions to environmental emissions.

Process modelling and life cycle analysis can quantify emissions such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and

total greenhouse gas emissions. The environmental indicators or performance measures range from

greenhouse gas emissions (in terms of CO2 equivalents), embodied energy and water in products,

operating energy, generation of solid waste, ecological footprint and eco-points (eco-indicator 99).

These indicators are essential measures in determining whether one building or urban scenario has a


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greater or lesser impact than another. Modelling such environmental impacts over the whole life cycle

is important in achieving sustainability.

3.18 Simulation and Modelling of Sustainable Buildings Zhenggen Ren

This presentation will give a review on currently used building performance models (from microscale-

CFD to macroscale-multizone models) and their applications and limitations. The emphasis will be

given to our model-COwZ (COMIS with Subzones), which was developed in The Queens University

Belfast during my PhD study and later (from 1999-2006). COwZ can be used to predict indoor

airflows, temperatures, and pollutant dispersion and transport through individual rooms to a whole

building. Since it was made available for three years ago, COwZ was distributed to over one hundred

international researchers or research teams including some USA universities and UK Health and

Safety Laboratory, where it is under evaluation in a study of the spread and dispersion of toxic gases

released inside buildings.

3.19 Report from the First Complex Dynamics of Urban SystemsWorkshop Tim Baynes

On the 3rd and 4th October 2007 the Complex Systems Science Theme convened a workshop entitled

Complex Systems Science in the Urban Context. Here we present the conclusions of that meeting

which: sought to identify major urban issues that could usefully be addressed with complex systems

science; examples of current urban research (not necessarily complex systems based); and asked: what

complex methods or approaches exist and how can they produce insight into urban dynamics?

3.20 Simulating the Behaviour of Adaptive Agents David Batten

Human ecosystems correspond to real life systems characterized by very strong, long-term interactions

between human communities and their environment. They not only process flows of matter and

energy, but also information flows. Nowadays, research on human ecosystems straddles the social,

computer, and environmental sciences. For example, it has created a space where anthropologists meet

with programmers. Until recently, such a creative space could not be found in Australia. This is why

two networks the Human Ecosystems Modelling with Agents (HEMA) network and CSIROs

Agent-Based Modelling (CABM) Working Group were created in 2002. In this presentation, I shall

attempt to synthesize the synergistic collection of ideas and applications that have emerged from the

simulation work of the HEMA network and CABM working group over the last five years.

3.21 Vulnerability of Urban Water Services in Pacific IslandCountries Magnus Moglia

The provision of Urban water services in Pacific Island Countries (PICs) is an urgent and dynamic

problem that requires considerable coordination and cooperation of a large range of stakeholders.

Complex socio-technical interactions must be considered while traditional and administrative

institutions work in parallel and institutional lock-in situations preventing change are common-place.

In attempting to foster a spirit of dialogue, integration and co-learning, an agent based model has been

developed, Tarawa Waterscape, through which complex interactions and impacts of behavioural


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WORKSHOP EXERCISES AND INTERACTIONS


patterns can be explored. Local stakeholders are showing considerable albeit often compartmental

interest in the models; and real incentives for integrated management are required to create a more

constructive dialogue. Through a Delphi dialogue involving funding agencies, local stakeholders and

experts, such concerns are being constructively explored.

3.22 Modelling the Uptake and Impact of Distributed Energy Simon Dunstall

The Intelligent Grid (IG) project was created to inform debate on the merits of distributed generation

and demand management (collectively Distributed Energy - DE) to deliver a future vision for an

electricity network that balances supply and demand for the benefit of consumers and utilities, and that

minimises greenhouse gas emissions, losses and price. A critical challenge to the delivery of this

vision is to determine the true value of DE for Australia and the triggers that will bring it about. There

remain a number of technical, regulatory and social issues that need to be addressed to satisfy

industry, government and community concerns. The project takes a multi-disciplinary integratedapproach to form the value proposition for DE by investigating the technical, economic,

environmental and social issues, and includes several simulation and modelling approaches.

3.23 Nested Transport Systems for Viable Cities Freeman Cook

The transport of people and goods in cities will require modification in the near future from individual

to mass transit systems, but how can mass transit systems be made user friendly. A nested approach

that scales as the numbers being transported increases offers a flexible, efficient and user friendly

system. Will such a system really work? One way to test would be to model it with agent based

models and test for the likely problems.

4. WORKSHOP EXERCISES AND INTERACTIONS

A number of concrete workshop exercise sessions were conducted during the SMURT workshop that

gave the opportunity to participants to interact, brainstorm, exchange ideas and engage in constructive

dialogue and communication pertaining the goals and aims of the workshop. A summary of these

exercise sessions is provided in the following sessions.

4.1 Fishbowl Discussion

4.1.1 Introduction

A fishbowl discussion session (Wikipedia, 2008) was conducted that aimed to explore a common

vision for the SMURT workshop (Yankelovich, 2001). The participants were divided in two groups:

the inner fishbowl circle, and the outer fishbowl circle. The inner circle consisted volunteered

participants that were willing (and identified by others) to have an active discussion regarding

SMURT vision and goals. The rest of the participants remained in the outer fishbowl circle which

enclosed the inner circle. The discussion commenced at the inner circle and on regular intervals was

expanded to the outer circle. A rule of the exercise was enforced according to which, the interaction


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between the inner and outer fishbowl circles was structured and contained within each category. More

specifically, when discussion was underway in the inner fishbowl circle, the outer circle participants

were not allowed to intervene, and vice versa. The discussion oscillated between the inner and outer

fishbowl circles in regular intervals. At the end of each inner-outer fishbowl session pair, questions

raised from the outer circle was introduced to the inner for further discussion. An overview of theprocess is shown in the following figure.

Figure 9: A graphical representation of the fishbowl exercise design (upper part) and process (lower part). The

implementation of the fishbowl exercise for the SMURT workshop included two interactive sessions from each ofthe inner and outer fishbowl circles.

The fishbowl exercise

4.1.2 Fishbowl discussion results

a. Inner session 1 (initial discussion)

The discussion begun with the realization that often modelling and simulation scientific approaches

have an inherent level of complexity, and involve multiple scientific disciplines. The need to work

together towards contributing to a better future becomes a more critical factor because of these

inherent complexities. Despite the fact that scientific tools for urban modelling and simulation of real-

world problems do often exist and have been extensively developed, an important barrier is that a

number of key decision makers and policy makers dont know how to move ahead or do not have the

necessary group dynamics that facilitates emergence and innovation. In addition, the decision-making

system for urban and sustainability transitions is configured in ways that enables decision makers to

focus on short-term decisions rather than long term visions for the future. Thus, there is a need for

education for changing thinking paradigms that are prominent in these areas of decision making.

Another point of discussion is the need to move away from problem-driven pressures that often dictate

actions and behaviours, towards a more innovative, vision-driven future. Yet, it is clear that such a

vision for the future in relation to scientific modelling and simulation of sustainability transitions does

not currently exist in many of our urban cities. The way ahead, is to generate a vision that is looking


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forward to the future, rather than moving away from the present. Such a vision should have the ability

to encapsulate specific goals and roadmaps for endeavours. In addition, the vision should not be

technology-specific, as there are a number of alternative technologies that can help achieve desired

goals. Only with such a vision for research and implementation we can achieve enhanced outcomes

for the future.

Moving towards agreeing for such a vision, requires multiple scales, including local, regional, and also

global. Urbanization processes and modern cities are subject to global drivers and emergent processes

(the bigger picture). Furthermore, such a vision should engage and include multiple stakeholders,

such as Government departments, science organizations and agencies, regional and city planners, and

citizens. A good starting point would be to agree on the things that we dont want to see in the future

in our urban areas (e.g., pollution, water shortages, gas-dependences and crises), or things we would

like to see more in the future (e.g., emphasis on aesthetic, citizen-friendly cities, more natural

landscapes, etc.). These things might help direct our thinking and vision for the future.

Yet, in order to achieve a functional vision, we need to enhance the communication and collaborationbetween scientists and policy makers. To this day, there is no strong communication pathway between

these two actors. We need to find ways to bridge the gap between the policy maker, the government

and the research. This is probably the only way to ensure that high-value scientific outcomes translate

into policy outputs and have impact on urban sustainability. Current research has both the skills and

the knowledge to address contemporary urban sustainability problems, yet the link to the policy

making and implementation is weak.

A way to address these gaps is to create more viable and open collaborative spaces with decision and

policy makers. We also need to be outward-looking and drive our efforts beyond the boundaries of the

scientific institution or government agency. The opening and maintaining of such collaborative spaces,

also has the potential to empower decision and policy makers to address more efficiently and

aggressively our contemporary problems, using the information and tools provided by scientists.

Nevertheless, such a collaborative space must work both ways; scientists require public attention and

recognition from the policy side in order to enhance their work. Such recognition also provides

funding and resources that in turn enhance the ability for delivering high-impact science.

Beyond the current gaps and needs, the discussion also recognized that some attention is starting to

move towards the right direction. Both the public and the policy makers are changing their ways of

thinking and look towards research for innovative solutions and ways to address these complex issues.

Examples of these problems that drive changes in attitudes are climate change and adaptation issues,

water shortages and energy crises, to name a few.

Another related issue is building networks and relations of trust among the scientists/researchers and

the decision and policy makers. Stronger relations of trust enhance the ability and efficiency of

collaboration. An important issue that often has significant impacts on the ability to openly collaborate

and generate trust relationships is the issue of intellectual and commercial property and viability.

Some discussants raised the issue of open source collaboration, the realities today demonstrate the

difficulties of achieving such a task. In some cases intellectual property and commercial viability

interfere with the need to find urgent and efficient solutions to some critical urban sustainability

problems. It also has impacts on implementing solutions, on their prices and the cost of new

technologies. It is also related with the consumers attitudes and our modern level of amenities we are

used to in our urban regions some of them may not be sustainable under future change scenarios.


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Scientific modelling and simulation tools could better inform these issues, clarify what changes in our

thinking and collective behaviours can be sustained, and what technologies and solutions can be better

implemented in such a complex socioeconomic environment.

b. Outer session (first set of questions)

One issue identified by the outer fishbowl session participants is the need to address some popular

perceptions and policy responses, that are not based on scientific analysis, yet, have maintained a

strong level of support that contradicts research findings. An example of such is the climate change

debate at the global and national levels. There is a question if and how as scientists we can combat and

address these issues within such collaborative spaces and public dialogues as the ones proposed in the

inner fishbowl circle.

Following up on the latter point, the discussion identified the need to enhance the ability of informed

citizens at the local level of decision-making and their level of involvement to the public discussion

and dialogue, based on science, modelling and simulation. Often, informed citizen involvement andpublic discussions can balance any existing policies and policy directions that may be based on

science fallacies. Facilitating such flows of information from the ground-up could be one of the

answers.

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