small cars: reality or myth?...mitsubishi imiev scion iq % share of tiv despite the struggles of the...
TRANSCRIPT
Small Cars: Reality or Myth?
Michael RobinetDirector, Global Production ForecastsIHS Automotive
February 24, 2011
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Actuals and forecast reflect CSM Worldwide’s light vehicle production and Global Insight’s light vehicle sales for vehicles up to 6t GVW
• Going Global
• US Sales Prospects
• NA Sourcing
• Summary
Agenda
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Actuals and forecast reflect CSM Worldwide’s light vehicle production and Global Insight’s light vehicle sales for vehicles up to 6t GVW
Global ScaleHigh Volume, Global Platforms – Top 10 by 2016
3.7
2.9
2.9
2.1
536
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6
0 1 2 3 4
Toyota - MC-M
Hyundai - HD
VW - MQB A/B
Renault/Nissan - B
GM - Global Delta/D2XX
Ford - C1 MCA
Hyundai - PB
Honda - C5
Ford - B2e
Honda - GSP
Millions
• Every top 10 global platform has/will have exposure to North America
• March of global platforms into developing markets accounts for overall growth
• Volume expansion also driven by major OEM platform consolidation in B- through D-segments and enhances design flexibility
• Platform consolidation alters competitive dynamic toward larger, more diversified players
3
Segment (Top Nameplate)
B (Fit)
B (Fiesta)
C (Civic)
B (Accent)
C (Focus)
C (Astra/Cruze)
B (Versa/Clio)
C/D (Golf)
C (Elantra)
C/D (Camry)
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Actuals and forecast reflect CSM Worldwide’s light vehicle production and Global Insight’s light vehicle sales for vehicles up to 6t GVW
Global Segment Analysis 2010-2013
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
5
10
15
20
25
A B C D E F-F
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%A-Segment
B-Segment
D-Segment
C-Segment
2010
Glo
bal S
egm
ents
in M
illio
ns
Full-Frame
• North America shifted output from full-frame offerings to B-, C- and D-segment offerings, due to higher commodity costs and regulatory constraints.
• The average age of core B-, C- and D-segment vehicles in the market will decline, dueto consumer demand and requirements for integrating new fuel economy technologies.
• The B- and C-segments are the key growth markets in Brazil and China.
Segment C
hanges in %2010-2013
Contribution to Growth 2010-2013
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
5
10
15
20
25
A B C D E F-F
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Actuals and forecast reflect CSM Worldwide’s light vehicle production and Global Insight’s light vehicle sales for vehicles up to 6t GVW
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2002 2006 2010 2014 2017
D-FFSegment Developed Mkts D-FF Segment Emerging MktsA-C Segment Developed Mkts A-C Segment Emerging Mkts
Global Light Vehicle SalesA Through C Segments Dominate
Milli
ons
CAGR (2010-17)
2.8%
5.8%
3.2%
7.2%
67%
52%
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Actuals and forecast reflect CSM Worldwide’s light vehicle production and Global Insight’s light vehicle sales for vehicles up to 6t GVW
• Going Global
• US Sales Prospects
• NA Sourcing
• Summary
Agenda
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Actuals and forecast reflect CSM Worldwide’s light vehicle production and Global Insight’s light vehicle sales for vehicles up to 6t GVW
7
Honda Civic• 1978 – OAL* 150”, WB** 87”• 1988 – OAL 163”, WB 97”• 1998 – OAL 175”, WB 103”• 2008 – OAL 177”, WB 106”
• Smaller segment car sizes have inched up steadily over the past 30 years - and especially in the last 10 years.
• Today’s Toyota Yaris 4-door B-Car is approximately the size of a 10-year-old Civic C-Car.
* OAL – Overall Length; ** WB – Wheel Base
Dimension Creep
Honda Accord• 1978 – OAL 163”, WB 94”• 1988 – OAL 180”, WB 102”• 1998 – OAL 189”, WB 107”• 2008 – OAL 194”, WB 110”
OAL 169”, WB 100”
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Actuals and forecast reflect CSM Worldwide’s light vehicle production and Global Insight’s light vehicle sales for vehicles up to 6t GVW
Limits Of Consumer Pull
Current Market Conditions• Fuel prices: moderately stable; relatively low• Constrained consumers
However …
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Oil - WTI (US$ per barrel)
Pric
e P
er B
arre
l In
US
Dol
lars
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Actuals and forecast reflect CSM Worldwide’s light vehicle production and Global Insight’s light vehicle sales for vehicles up to 6t GVW
Depress5%
Quiets13%
Baby Boomer
s34%
Gen X19%
Gen Y29%
Depress12%
Quiets14%
Baby Boomer
s34%
Gen X20%
Gen Y20%
Quiets12%
Baby Boomer
s31%
Gen X18%
Gen Y27%
Gen Z12%
Depress19%
Quiets14%Baby
Boomers
36%
Gen X20%
Gen Y11%
2000 2005
2010 2015 - 57% will be under 50 years old
2000-2015 Profile Of American Drivers
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Actuals and forecast reflect CSM Worldwide’s light vehicle production and Global Insight’s light vehicle sales for vehicles up to 6t GVW
10
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.8%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sha
re o
f Mar
ket
Smart ForTwo Fiat 500 Chevy SparkMitsubishi iMiEV Scion iQ % Share of TIV
Despite the struggles of the only entry in this segment, the Smart ForTwo, more OEMs are bringing vehicles into this segment.
Electrification will be prevalent
Thou
sand
sA-Segment Sales - US
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Actuals and forecast reflect CSM Worldwide’s light vehicle production and Global Insight’s light vehicle sales for vehicles up to 6t GVW
11
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sha
re o
f Mar
ket
VW Toyota Scion SuzukiNissan Mitsibishi Mazda KiaHonda Chevrolet Ford SmartChrysler/Dodge MINI BMW % Share of TIV
OEMs are introducing many new models but volume has never been particularly strong.
B-Segment Sales - USM
illion
s
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Actuals and forecast reflect CSM Worldwide’s light vehicle production and Global Insight’s light vehicle sales for vehicles up to 6t GVW
12
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sha
re o
f Mar
ket
Other Jeep Cadillac Buick Lexus LincolnAudi Chrysler Scion Mitsubishi Dodge KiaSubaru Mazda Hyundai Volkswagen Toyota NissanChevrolet Honda Ford Share of TIV
Model proliferation is high, content is emphasized
C-Segment Sales - USM
illion
s
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Actuals and forecast reflect CSM Worldwide’s light vehicle production and Global Insight’s light vehicle sales for vehicles up to 6t GVW
• Going Global
• US Sales Prospects
• NA Sourcing
• Summary
Agenda
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Actuals and forecast reflect CSM Worldwide’s light vehicle production and Global Insight’s light vehicle sales for vehicles up to 6t GVW
14
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sha
re o
f Pro
duct
ion
Other OEMs Fiat/Chrysler HyundaiToyota Volkswagen Renault/NissanHonda General Motors FordShare of NAFTA Output
Growth in Mexico, import substitution, bodystyle proliferation, export opportunities and market dynamics drive a rising share in NAFTA
A Through C-Segment Production - NAFTAM
illion
s
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Actuals and forecast reflect CSM Worldwide’s light vehicle production and Global Insight’s light vehicle sales for vehicles up to 6t GVW
• Going Global
• US Sales Prospects
• NA Sourcing
• Summary
Agenda
Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Actuals and forecast reflect CSM Worldwide’s light vehicle production and Global Insight’s light vehicle sales for vehicles up to 6t GVW
• Global platforms add a new dynamic – export sourcing, greater economies of scale, increase content/value
• CAFE is a driver though ownership costs and demographics are also critical
• Demand from Mexico is a key anchor for B-segment volume in NAFTA
• Increased production flexibility reduces downstream risk versus last generation efforts
Summary