Small Business Landscape 2016: Cause for Cautious Optimism

The year 2016 has been an emotional roller coaster for business owners, entrepreneurs, and the lenders who serve them:

This is not unique to any one sector. Many companies and industries have enjoyed a consistent, if not complete, recovery since 2008. However, an honest and complete picture must acknowledge concerns of those business owners who have experienced a bumpier, lackluster or even non-existent return to economic normalcy.

As the summer turns to fall and the November elections approach, further uncertainty is forecast. From technology, business funding, and workforce issues, to new business development and governmental regulations, businesses are navigating waters both familiar and uncharted.

Many small business owners have seen a return of sales and revenues to levels not experienced since before the Great Recession that began in earnest in 2008.

Given the buoyancy of the economy and overall recovery, start-up activity also has been bullish, as employees are sufficiently optimistic either to leave existing jobs or branch out and launch side businesses in addition to their primary employment.

Lenders are fielding an uptick in new lending inquiries or actual originations from business owners expanding operations or entrepreneurs launching new enterprises. This traffic historically is a sign of optimism among borrowers.

Executive SummaryWith 90% of U.S. companies characterized as small-business enterprises and 30% of all working Americans employed at companies with fewer than 100 workers, it’s no question that small business drives the U.S. economy.

Recent studies suggest these companies are growing in number, but they’re also cautious – and cautiously optimistic – about the future. Some small businesses still suffer the effects of the recession. Others are nervous about the outcome of the November elections and the impacts of increasing federal regulations. Still, many possess the confidence common to entrepreneurs that could determine the health and direction of the U.S. economy through year-end – and beyond.

While the Fortune 500s get the headlines, the mindset, health, and actions of American small businesses truly drive the U.S. economy. Consider their scope, scale and impact:

Only one in 10 businesses in the U.S. are publicly traded, reports the Wall Street Journal, and more than 30% of working Americans work at companies with fewer than 100 employees, notes the U.S. Small Business Administration.

The number of those companies seem to be rising, according to the SBA’s 2015 Small Business Bulletin. The SBA measures “small businesses” as those with 499 or fewer employees, which qualifies them for performance tracking and eligibility for programs preferences reserved for “small business” concerns to help them compete in the marketplace.

34%in 1997

25%in 2015

26%in 2015

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These new entrepreneurs also are increasingly diverse; four in 10 of the new entrepreneur market are African American, Latino, Asian, or other non-white entrepreneurs in the 2015 Index.

Additionally, new, younger entrepreneurs aged 20 to 34 have declined from 34% of all new entrepreneurs in the 1997 Index to almost 25% in the 2015 Index.

Older new entrepreneurs aged 55 to 64 has grown from almost 15% to almost 26% over the same period, Kauffman reported.

Business Growth: Inside the NumbersSmall businesses are a considerable driver of the U.S. economy.

In 2014, they added 1.4 million net new jobs, exceeding the hiring by those businesses with 500 or more employees. Firms with fewer than 50 employees contributed the most job growth, or 39% of all net new jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Additionally, reversing a decades-long trend, start-ups are outpacing closures, the SBA noted. Clearly, statistics reveal how influential small business is in fueling the U.S. economy in employment, new job growth, and start-up activity.

The new companies also seem to reflect a changing America, notes The Kauffman Index: Startup Activity, which tracks new business creation. American entrepreneurship and start-up activity in 2015 reversed a five-year downward trend dating back to 2010, “giving rise to hope for a revival of entrepreneurship,” Kauffman reports. Most of the increase is related to those left unemployed following the recession who are now launching their own businesses, as well as growth of immigrant entrepreneurship.

Entrepreneurship was up 10%, from 280 out of 100,000 adults in the 2014 Startup Activity Index to 310 out of 100,000 adults in the 2015 Index.

Moreover, about 80% of new entrepreneurs were previously employed, compared to roughly 20% who had been unemployed. To the outside observer, this reflects a confidence and willingness among gainfully employed individuals to “make the leap” and start their own business.

Cause for Pause and Optimism in 2016 and BeyondThe next 12 months bring reason for hope and caution. Small business owners revealed optimism not seen over the previous 12 months, according to the Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index released in February. The overall score of 67 was up 13 points from the November 2015 survey. In fact, the three previous quarters had revealed a decline. The survey, which tracks some 600 small business owners nationwide with annual revenues up to $20 million, ranges from a high of 400 to a low of minus-400. The highest Index reading ever was +114 in the fourth quarter of 2006; the lowest was -28 in the third quarter of 2010.

The uptick reflected optimism over cash flow, the bank reported, with 60% of small business owners commenting that cash flow was “very or somewhat good” over the previous year, a level not seen since the fourth quarter of 2007.

Looking ahead, 66% of business owners expect their cash flow to be very or somewhat good in the next 12 months, compared to 63% in November,” according to the January 2016 survey of 600 small business owners nationwide with annual revenues up to $20 million.

A bank executive added, “The latest Index scores show that small business owners are more upbeat about their current and future business conditions … improvements reported in the January survey indicate the optimism of small business owners rebounded after trending downward for much of 2015. This suggests small business owners are entering 2016 with greater confidence.”

Biggest Business ChallengesFurther exemplifying their cautious optimism, in Wasp Barcode Technologies 2016 State of Small Business Report, a survey of 1,100 U.S. small businesses, companies reported that their biggest challenges for 2016 would be:

Hiring new employees Increasing profits Providing employee healthcare Growing revenue Managing cash flow

Yet, many of those companies were planning on investing for the future. Among their anticipated strategies to improve revenue growth were:

Improving existing customer experience and retention Investing in new customer acquisition activities and methods Investing in training or tools to improve employee productivity Expanding into new markets Launching new products or services Hiring new employees Opening new stores, sites or facilities

Furthermore, implementing technology and innovation, as well as navigating issues related to access to capital, workforce, and the regulator environment represent challenges and opportunities for small businesses, notes The State of Small Business in America, a study of 1,800 small business owners from Babson College commissioned by Goldman Sachs “10,000 Small Businesses” and conducted in March 2016.

Innovation and Technology

In an effort to drive innovation and technology-related businesses, the Small Business Administration’s Small Business Innovation Research in June announced grants to Federal and State Technology partnership program recipients. These included state and local economic development agencies, business development centers, colleges and universities, and Small Business Technology Development Centers to support programs for innovative, technology-driven small businesses.

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9%

Innovation and technology are critical issues for businesses large and small. For example, the Babson study found:

feel prepared for cyber threats of a cyberattack their intellectual property

40%of business owners do not

20%have been the victim

< 50%know how to protect

Alternative FundingThe Babson report also found that constraints placed by financial institutions often limit business owners’ ability to borrow, leaving them unable to secure even half of the funding requested. As respondents now seek more flexible terms from lenders, this has become “a central issue for financial institutions, as is the continued capacity building of Community Development Financial Institutions and other mission-driven lenders, which may offer more flexible rates and terms than conventional lenders,” the report noted.

To that end, applications by and originations to older, more established companies for alternative business loans are outpacing those from younger business enterprises, according to statistics compiled by BFS Capital. This could reflect both that older businesses have a stronger record of performance to present to lenders, as well as such borrowers have emerged as an underserved market among lenders.

Moreover, between Q4 2015 and Q2 2016, the company saw significant spikes in submissions from three industries: full service restaurants (up 66%), electrical contracting (up 51%), and general automotive repair (up 42%).

These trends combined reveal that borrowers have accepted “alternative” financing as an acceptable means of funding.

Washington’s Far-Reaching ImpactOf course, any discussion of optimism, pessimism, and the economy’s future relies heavily on news from the nation’s capital. In its survey, Wasp found that the anticipated impact of the 2016 presidential election on small business varied. Respondents reported that a Republican win would deliver a positive impact (39%), a negative impact (22%), or no impact (39%). Conversely, respondents reported that a Democrat win would deliver a positive impact (34%), a negative impact (30%), or no impact (36%). Keep in mind, these numbers were tallied before the two parties had selected their nominees.

Beyond who will occupy the White House, regulatory agencies remain an issue. Not surprisingly, many argue that government’s greatest effect on U.S. businesses comes from the regulations it implements and enforces.

Babson found that six in 10 of its survey respondents reported “some level of difficulty understanding and managing government regulations and laws,” with business owners often investing 200 hours a year “learning about, navigating, and managing regulations and compliance…” Additionally, compounding federal, state, and local regulations “extenuates the challenge.”

The January 2016 NFIB Small Business Economic Trends report stated 21% of small business owners cited taxes as their biggest problem, while 18% cited regulations and red tape.

Recent action out of Washington regarding sick and parental leave, regulatory changes from the U.S. Department of Labor regarding overtime, and minimum-wage requirements, for example, have employers – especially small businesses – considering the impact.

For example, minimum-wage requirements scheduled to go into effect December 1, 2016, will change compensation rules for some 4.2 million “white collar” executive, administrative, professional, computer-employee, and other highly compensated employees who previously were treated as exempt from overtime pay.

The number of full-time workers who qualify for overtime pay could rise to 35% from 7% currently, a 500% increase.

This may only exacerbate labor issues highlighted in the Babson report. Small businesses reported their most pressing challenge is hiring qualified employees with the requisite skillset, and then providing healthcare coverage (though many small businesses fall beneath the federal limitations required to provide such coverage).

“No business ecosystem can be healthy and sustainable without a deliberate means of addressing workforce development in a way that meets the needs of all sizes of businesses,” the Babson report noted.

Once finalized, those changes could have a significant impact on the Fair Labor Standards Act. At this early stage, it’s difficult for employers to fully prepare for implementation of the proposed rules. However, a good first step small employers can take now is to budget for increased overtime costs and/or salary increases in 2016.”

– Chris Rush, VP of strategy,ADP Small Business Services, in Business News Daily

ConclusionTo be sure, many sectors of the U.S. economy have enjoyed a robust recovery in the years following the Great Recession. Yet, the fiscal, managerial, and basic entrepreneurial challenges have created an emotional roller coaster ride that business owners and their employees continue to face. This likely will contribute to and even compound continued uncertainty in the marketplace. This will only grow as the November elections approach, leaving businesses to navigate territory both familiar and uncharted with an eye on finishing 2016 strong and moving confidently into 2017 – and beyond.

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Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Kauffman Index on Startup Activity, the Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index, Wasp Barcode Technologies’ 2016 State of Small Business Report, Babson College/Goldman Sachs’ “The State of Small Business in America” study, and the Small Business Administration’s Small Business Innovation Research.

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