slides for sociology w3480: part 2 of 3 revolutions, social movements, and contentious politics...

Slides for Sociology W3480: Part 2 of 3

Revolutions, Social Movements, and Contentious Politics

Columbia College

Spring 2007

Prepared by Charles Tilly and

Ernesto Castañeda

send questions to [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

RevolutionsRevolutions

(Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 2

RevolutionsRevolutions

• Revolution = forcible transfer of power over a state in the course of which at least two distinct blocs of contenders make incompatible claims to control the state, and some significant portion of the population subject to the state’s jurisdiction acquiesces in the claims of each bloc.

• A full revolution combines a revolutionary situation with a revolutionary outcome.


Revolutionary SituationsRevolutionary Situations

1) contenders or coalitions of contenders advancing exclusive competing claims to control of the state or some segment of it: mobilization process.

2) commitment to those claims by a significant segment

of the citizenry: mobilization plus diffusion

3) incapacity or unwillingness of rulers to suppress the

alternative coalition and/or commitment to its claims: ruler-subject interaction


Revolutionary OutcomesRevolutionary Outcomes

1) defections of regime members2) acquisition of armed force by revolutionary

coalitions3) neutralization or defection of the regime’s armed

force4) control of the state apparatus by members of

revolutionary coalition5) transfer of state power to new ruling coalition.


CONFLICT, REVOLT, AND REVOLUTION CONFLICT, REVOLT, AND REVOLUTION complete great

revolution

civil war top-down seizure of power TRANSFER coup OF POWER revolt routine politics none none complete SPLIT IN REGIME 6(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)

How to Analyze Contentious How to Analyze Contentious Event CataloguesEvent Catalogues

Adapted from Tilly’s “How to Detect and Describe

Performances and Repertoires”Chapter 2 of upcoming book “Contentious Performances”

April 11th, 2007


Aerial Graph of Contention in Russia (based on Bessinger 2001).Aerial Graph of Contention in Russia (based on Bessinger 2001).

Source: Data Supplied by Mark Beissinger

Figure 5.4: Demonstrations and Violent Events in the Soviet Union and Successor States, 1987-1992

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Event AnalysisEvent Analysis

• The fundamental unit of analysis in this study is the contentious event.

• Event analysis is widely recognized as a tool for studying waves of mobilization.

• It is essentially a way of tracking over time the rise and fall of particular types of events and the features associated with them (Beissinger 2002: 42).


Different Soviet nationalities staged protest demonstrations Different Soviet nationalities staged protest demonstrations month by month from 1987 through 1991 month by month from 1987 through 1991 (Beissinger 2002: 84). (Beissinger 2002: 84).

For the most active, these were the peak months:For the most active, these were the peak months:

• Armenians May 1988• Estonians November 1988• Moldavians February 1989• Russians January 1990• Crimean Tatars April 1990• Ukrainians November 1990• Latvians December 1990• Lithuanians December 1990• Azerbaijanis December 1990• Georgians September 1991


Results Results

• “In all, I have been able to identify thirty-two major waves of nationalist violence in the former USSR during the 1987-92 period, part of sixteen larger ethnonationalist conflicts involving violence during these years. Only in four of these conflicts (the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict, the Georgian-Ossetian conflict, the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict, and the Moldovan-Transdniestr conflict) did violence become a self-sustaining strategy of contesting state boundaries, with relatively short waves of violence growing increasingly protracted over time. In all other cases, violent mobilization remained short-lived. What distinguished conflicts in which mass violence grew sustained from those in which violence ceased to proliferate was the relationship of state institutions to the production of violence” (Beissinger 2002: 309).


Graficas de violenciaGraficas de violencia

Source:

Samuel González RuizSamuel González Ruiz

Mexican specialist in comparative legal systems, in relation to the fight and prosecution of organized crime.

Niveles de Violencia en México

2007

2006

2005

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1998

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1996

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9 Violencia mortal Terrorista

X1

X2

8 Violencia mortal intimidatoria Generalizada

X3

X4

X5

X6

X7

X8

X9

X10

X11

7 Utilización de armas de destrucción media.

X12

X13

X14

X15

X16

X17

X18

X19

X20

X21

X22

6 Violencia contra políticos y de primer nivel

X23

X24

X25

X26

X27

X28

X29

X1

X30

X31

X32

5 Violencia mortal contra funcionarios y periodistas

X33

X34

X35

X36

X37

X38

X39

X40

X41

X42

X43

X44

X2

X45

X46

X X47

X48

X49

4 Violencia mortal contra Terceros

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X 52

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X

54

X 55

X56

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3 Violencia mortal contra Rivales

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X 61

X62

X 63

X X64

X 65

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66

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X 68

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X 70

X 71

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X X 73

X X X x x

2 Violencia física

X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X74

X X X X X x x

1 Violencia Moral

X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X x x Violencia Moral o intimidación (amenazas o daño en propiedad ajena para amedrentar a las 1 Inicio de la utilización de grupos armados tipo autodefensas. (la familia en Michoacán) 2 Caso de los Fernández. Hotel Camino Real Guadalajara. (Sólo ha habido un único intento en México de usar bombas en caso de narcotráfico. Los Arellano contactaron con libaneses y

1 Preparación de atentado contra el General Rebollo. Contrato contra Francisco Molina.

2 CIUDAD VICTORIA.- Francisco Morales Hernández, comandante de la Policía Judicial en Tampico, fue asesinado ayer por Hilario Gómez Herrera, comandante de la misma corporación en Ciudad Madero, quien además hirió a dos policías preventivos.

Eduardo Rodríguez Masso, director de la PJE, informó que los hechos ocurrieron la noche del sábado en Ciudad Madero.

Explicó que el enfrentamiento entre los dos comandantes se debió a que Gómez Herrera había detenido antes a dos hijos de Morales Hernández, al parecer de manera arbitraria

Increase of Violence in Mexico due to Organized Crime

13(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)

Niveles de Violencia en Colombia

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2000 99

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97 96

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9 Violencia Terrorista

X1

X2

X3

X4

X5

X6

X7

x8

X9

X10

X11

X12

X13

X14

8 Violen. intimidatoria. Generalizada

X15

X16

X17

X18

X19

X20

X21

X22

X23

7 armas de destrucción media.

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X25

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x


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2 Violencia física

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X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

1 Violencia Moral

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1 La Policía atribuyó a las Farc el ataque con carro bomba contra una planta de Nestlé en Doncello, Caquetá, en el que 4 personas sufrieron heridas leves. Médicos del hospital de Florencia, reportaron que las personas lesionadas ya fueron dadas de alta. Las autoridades investigan la hipótesis de que el atentado se produjera porque la multinacional no pagó una suma de dinero que les exigía la guerrilla. Enero 22 del 2007. Un atentado con 30 kilos de pentolita, distribuidas en dos cargas, fueron activadas al paso de una patrulla de la Policía, en el barrio La Independencia. Seis personas murieron y catorce resultaron heridas. Dos atentados de las FARC dejan 6 muertos en puerto colombiano.

2 El comandante del Ejército, general Mario Montoya, reconoció que un capitán y un teniente de la institución estarían involucrados en el atentado con carro bomba ocurrido en Bogotá el 15 de julio, días antes de la posesión del presidente Alvaro Uribe para su segundo manda. 8 de abril de 2006

Reduction of Violence in Colombia


Niveles de Violencia en Irlanda

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Violencia mortal Terrorista

Violencia mortal intimidatoria. Generalizada

Utilización de armas de destrucción media.

Xi xii

Xiii

Violencia contra políticos y de primer nivel

Violencia mortal contra funcionarios y periodistas

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xvi

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xxii

Violencia mortal contra Terceros

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Xxiv

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xxvi

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Xxxiii

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Violencia mortal contra Rivales

Xxxvii

Xxxviii

Xxxix

Xxxx

Xxxxi

Xxxxii

xxxxiii

xxxxiv

xxxxv

xxxxvi

xxxxvii

xxxxviii

Violencia física

Xxxxix

Violencia Moral

Xxl

xxli

i The government, which had prematurely declared last year that the fight against gangs was nearly won, is now cracking down, and police are seizing weapons - 500 this year - from sawn-off shotguns to M16 rifles and armour-piercing bullets ii Inicio de envíos de armas en los cargamentos de droga. Algunas fueron intercambiadas con el Ira iii

1982 bomba en un coche de un criminalista dr James Donovan puesta por el mafiosa Cahil iv 26 de junio de 96 asesinato de Verónica Guerin periodista que estaba investigando a la Delincuencia organizada. v 6 junio 96 dos policías muertos por tratar de impedir un asalto del IRA vi La periodista Verónica Guerin solicito una entrevista con Gillman para que explicara como había obtenido su dinero. Gillman la golpeo personalmente. Ella presento cargos contra el lo que implicaba una directa condena. vii El Criminal Gillman amenazo de muerte a los funcionarios de la Seguridad Social que investigaban a su hija. viii Verónica Guerin reporto que un criminal que había robado camiones bancarios había recibido una amnistía de impuestos por lo que había recibido del robo. Fue lesionada con un balazo en una pierna. ix Secuestro del Director del Banco de Irlanda. x 1989 El oficial Brian Purcell del departamento de Seguridad Social elimino los beneficios sociales de Cahill. Fue secuestrado y golpeado. Le dieron dos balazos en las piernas. xi El detective dominick hutchim disparo a dos personas de la banda del monk y el se llevo seis balazos. Murio su amigo thomas driscoll xii Los kelly amenazaron al juez . xiii Tearful parents today visited the scene where their son was shot dead in the first gun murder in Ireland of 2007. A 22-year-old man, named locally as Damien Dowdall, died after gunmen burst into his girlfriend’s house in west Dublin last night. Dowdall died in the living room after being shot twice, according to the Garda

xiv A man is being questioned about the murder of a couple who were set on fire at their home in Co Armagh. Thomas O'Hare and Lisa McClatchey died after an attack at their home near Armagh City five weeks ago. Both victims later died in hospital.

xv Gilligan amenazó a los dos testigos que se tenían para comprobar que es había ordenado la muerte de verónica guerin. Martus Baltus cuya hija amenazó de muerte no testificó. Tampoco una antigua amante Carol Rooney. xvi Tasa homicidio de 1.01 por cien mil xvii Tasa homicidio de 1.02 por cien mil xviii Tasa homicidio de 1.04 por cien mil

Trends of Organized Crime in Ireland(not linked to terrorist organizations)


Niveles de Violencia en Italia.

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8 Violencia mortal intimidatoria. Generalizada

7 Utilización de armas de destrucción media.

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2 Violencia física X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

1 Violencia Moral X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

i 27/ 7/ 1993: a Roma, un’autobomba esplode nel piazzale antistante il vicariato, dietro la basilica di San Giovanni in Laterano. Poco dopo un’altra autobomba esplode davanti alla chiesa del Velabro. Lo stesso giorno a Milano, un’autobomba parcheggiata in via Palestro provoca cinque morti: quattro vigili urbani accorsi sul posto e un extracomunitario che dormiva su una panchina. 27/ 5/ 1993: a Firenze, esplode un’autobomba in via dei Georgofili, cinque morti. 14/ 5/ 1993: a Roma, esplode un’autobomba in via Fauro al passaggio dell’auto con a bordo il conduttore televisivo Maurizio Costanzo. ii Utilización de 800 kilogramos de explosivo para volar la carretera del aeropuerto a Palermo y asesinar al juez Falcone. En el incidente muere su esposa Francesca y varios miembros de su escolata. Utilización de explosivos para volar a el Juez Paolo Borselino. En el incidente mueren varios miembros de su escolta iii Nostra decise di rispondere con un agguato, luogo prescelto la sala trattenimenti “Madison” dove i Grassonelli erano stati invitati ad una festa di matrimonio. Venne rubata una A 112. Ma i Grassonelli intuirono il pericolo e imbottirono di tritolo l’auto destinata a trasportare i loro killer. L’esplosione ridusse in brandelli Calogero Salemi (nella foto i resti dell’auto). iv

1 Asesinato del Periodista Nino Pecorelli

Violence in Italy


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Reported “corruption” offences - rates per 100.000 inhabitants

(Italy 1989-2000)


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Rates per 100.000 inhabitants (Italy 1989-2000)

18

Organized Crime ↔ Corruption ↔ Obstruction of Justice Organized Crime ↔ Corruption ↔ Obstruction of Justice = Escalation of Violence and Loss of State Capacity= Escalation of Violence and Loss of State Capacity

• “La relación entre la violencia, la corrupción y la obstrucción a la justicia son de protección directa de la delincuencia organizada y se configuran como un círculo exterior que protege el silencio o la oferta de las organizaciones criminales” (Gonzalez y Flores 2007).

Source forthcoming as:. “Violencia, corrupción y narcotráfico: el desafío del México democrático.

”González Ruiz, Samuel y Carlos Flores.” Foreign Affairs en Español ▪ Volumen 7 Número 2.

Special thanks to Samuel Ruiz for sharing his research and slides with the Mexican Graduate Student Groups at Conferences at Yale and Columbia.

19

Tarrow’s Italy StudyTarrow’s Italy Study• Tarrow examined Italy’s cycle of protest from 1965 to 1975, for which the national

newspaper Corriere della Sera yielded 4,980 “protest events”, non-routine actions in which the participants revealed a collective goal. Tarrow tells us,

• I collected information on ‘protest events’, a category which included strikes, demonstrations, petitions, delegations, and violence, but which excluded contentious behavior which revealed no collective claims on other actors.

• I defined the protest event as a disruptive direct action on behalf of collective interests, in which claims were made against some other group, elites, or authorities (Tarrow 1989: 359).

• Tarrow produced a record for each event. But he enriched the enterprise in two important ways:

• First, he incorporated textual descriptions at a number of critical points – summaries of events, grievances, policy responses, and more. That made it possible to refine his classified counts without returning to the original newspaper sources.

• Second, within the record he placed checklists where two or more features could coexist. As a result, he was able to analyze not only the overall distribution of events but also the frequency of such features as different forms of violence – clashes with police, violent conflict, property damage, violent attacks, rampages, and random violence (Tarrow 1989: 78). (Taken from Tilly Contentious Repertoires. Forthcoming [It has now appeared in Cambridge university Press. 2008]).

20

(Source: Tilly and Tarrow 2007)

Figure 5.2: Italian Contention, 1966-1973

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Source: Tarrow 1989: p. 70

21

Tilly’s Great Britain StudyTilly’s Great Britain Study• Over about ten years, research groups at the University of Michigan and the New School for

Social Research worked with me to create a systematic body of evidence on actions, interactions, performances, repertoires, and their settings in Great Britain between 1758 and 1834.

• The central data set we produced includes machine-readable descriptions for 8,088 contentious gatherings (CGs) that occurred in southeastern England (Kent, Middlesex, Surrey, or Sussex) during thirteen selected years from 1758 to 1820, or anywhere in Great Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales, but not Ireland) from 1828 to 1834.

• In this study, a CG is an occasion on which ten or more people gathered in a publicly-accessible place and visibly made claims which, if realized, would affect the interests of at least one person outside their number. In principle, CGs include almost all events that authorities, observers, or historians of the time would have called "riots" or "disturbances" as well as even more that would fall under such headings as "public meeting", "procession" and "demonstration".

• Our standardized descriptions of CGs come from periodicals: the Annual Register, Gentleman's Magazine, London Chronicle, Morning Chronicle, Times, Hansard's Parliamentary Debates, Mirror of Parliament, and Votes and Proceedings of Parliament; we read these periodicals exhaustively for the years in question plus January-June 1835. Although we frequently consulted both published historical work and archival sources such as the papers of the Home Office in interpreting our evidence, the machine-readable descriptions transcribed material from the periodicals alone.

• We did not try to find every event about which information was available or even a representative sample of such events. Instead, we assembled a complete enumeration of those described in standard periodicals whose principles of selection we could examine, and sometimes even test.


Tilly’s Great Britain StudyTilly’s Great Britain StudyTilly laced computer-stored records for Contentious Events into separate sections and provided:• a general description of each event (8,088 machine-readable records)• a description of each formation -- each person or set of persons who acted distinguishably

during the event (27,184 records)• supplementary information on the geographical or numerical size of any formation, when

available (18,413 records)• a summary of each distinguishable action by any formation, including the actor(s), the crucial

verb, (where applicable) the object of the action, and an excerpt of the text(s) from which we drew actor, verb, and object (50,875 records)

• excerpts from detailed texts from which we drew summary descriptions of actions (76,189 records)

• identification of each source of the account (21,030 records)• identification of each location in which the action occurred (11,054 records)• a set of verbal comments on the event, or on difficulties in its transcription (5,450 records)• special files listing all alternative names for formations and all individuals mentioned in any

account (28,995 formation names, 26,318 individual names)• Except for straightforward items such as date, day of the week, and county names, the records

do not contain codes in the usual sense of the term. On the whole, we transcribed words from the texts or (when that was not feasible) paraphrases of those words. Think of formation names: Instead of coding names given to formations in broad categories, we transcribed the actual words used in our sources.

• For example, the transcription of each action includes the actor’s name, a verb characterizing the action, and (in the roughly 52 percent of cases in which there was an object) the object’s name.


Subject – Verb - ObjectSubject – Verb - Object

Transcription subject verb object the same night the mob (gathered) mob #gather none the mob committed great violences in Surry-Street, in the Strand, particularly at the Coach Office, not a window was left with a whole pane of glass mob #break owner of Coach Office


My research team found multiple accounts of these attacks in 1829’s Times of London. Here is how we transcribed and classified the major actions within a cutting incident on May 4th: Transcription Verb Broad Verb Category certain evil-disposed persons riotously assembled assemble move entered the dwellings of the journeymen silk weavers enter move and maliciously cut and destroyed the silk in the looms destroy attack #end #end end a reward of 200L is hereby offered offer negotiate The left hand verb presents our simplified transcription of the phrase’s central action. The right hand column shows our placement in one of eight extremely broad categories of verbs: attack, control, end, meet, move, negotiate, support, and other. (More on verb categories in a moment.)

Source: Tilly. Contentious Performances Chapter 2. Unpublished draft 2007.(Tilly & Castañeda 2007) 25

Figure 2-3: Major Categories of Verbs in British Contentious Gatherings, 1758-1834

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(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)26

Figure 2-2: Locations of Action Verbs in Two Factor Space F1 = Indoor (low) vs. Outdoor (high) F2 = Disagreement (low) vs. Agreement (high)

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ATTEMPTATTACK

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ADJOURN

ADDRESS

27

Over-represented Verb Categories* by Broad Type of Over-represented Verb Categories* by Broad Type of Gathering, Great Britain, 1758-1834Gathering, Great Britain, 1758-1834

• authorized celebrations (78 CGs): bracket, celebrate, cheer, dine, enter, gather, observe, proceed, receive• delegations (79): address, bracket, deliberate, gather, negotiate, proceed, receive, support• parades, demonstrations, rallies (142): attempt, block, bracket, celebrate, cheer, decry, dine, enter, gather,

march, negotiate, observe, oppose, other, proceed, receive, support, vote• pre-planned meetings of named associations (985): dine, hear petition, meet, petition• pre-planned meetings of public assemblies (3197): none• other pre-planned meetings (1672): dine, meet• strikes, turnouts (76): attack, attempt, block, control, deliberate, donkey, gather, hear petition, march, move,

negotiate, observe, other, proceed, resist, turnout• attacks on blacklegs (27): attack, block, control, decry, die, enter, fight, gather, move, observe, turnout• brawls in drinking places (24): attack, attempt, block, bracket, celebrate, control, deliberate, dine, enter, fight,

gather, give, move, negotiate, request, resist, turnout• market conflicts (12): address, block, gather, negotiate, oppose, other, proceed, request, support• poachers vs. gamekeepers (71): attack, attempt, block, bracket, control, deliberate, die, disperse, enter, fight,

gather, hunt, move, negotiate, observe, other, proceed• smugglers vs. customs (49): attack, attempt, block, bracket, celebrate, control, die, fight, gather, give, move,

observe, other, proceed, resist, smuggle• other violent gatherings (1156): attack, attempt, block, bracket, control, decry, enter, fight, gather, give, march,

move, negotiate, observe, petition, proceed, resist• other unplanned gatherings (520): block, celebrate, cheer, control, decry, demonstrate, enter, gather, march,

move, negotiate, observe, other, proceed •

* over-represented = 2+ times the proportion in all gatherings or (in the case of end and meet, which appear in 73 and 54 percent of all gatherings respectively) 20%+ more than their general proportions


From Hector Forero’s Student Memorandum 29(Tilly & Castañeda 2007)

Takeshi WadaTakeshi Wada

• Wada (Wada 2003, 2004) drew accounts of protest events from the daily newspapers Excélsior, Unomásuno, and La Jornada for 29-day periods spanning national elections over the 37 years, a total of 13 electoral periods.

• From the newspapers he identified 2832 events, some linked together in campaigns, for a total of 1797 campaigns.

• Wada’s subject-verb-object-claim transcriptions made it possible for him to employ sophisticated network models of who made claims on whom. Overall, they reveal a sharp politicization of Mexico’s collective claim making as the country’s partial democratization proceeded. From claims on business, landowners, and universities, protesters moved to making increasingly strong claims on the government itself.

• According to Wada’s analysis, the weakening of network ties among the elite (especially as concentrated within the longtime ruling party PRI) provided an opportunity for claimants to divide their rulers. It thus advanced the partial democratization of the 1990s. Technically, Wada broke free of many restrictions imposed by classified event counts. That technical freedom opened the way to a sophisticated treatment of interaction in Mexican politics.

Source: Wada, Takeshi (2003): “A Historical and Network Analysis of Popular Contention in the Age of

Globalization in Mexico,” unpublished doctoral dissertation in sociology, Columbia University. (2004): “Event Analysis of Claim Making in Mexico: How Are Social Protests Transformed into Political Protests,” Mobilization 9: 241-258.


LessonsLessonsThe innovations of Tilly, McPhail, Tarrow, Franzosi, Beissinger,

Wada and others offer three lessons for analysts of contentious politics:

• First, it is practically feasible to record and analyze the internal dynamics of episodes instead of settling for classified event counts.

• Second, the recording of particular verbs rather than general characterization of the action is crucial for that practical purpose.

• Third, verbs with objects make it possible to move from individualistic analyses to treatments of connections among contentious actors (relational).


Extra lecture:What Happened in Oaxaca?

Triangulating Outside Witness Accountsto Analyze the Contentious Politics

in Oaxaca, Mexico

Nayeli Chavez-Geller, UNIVISIONRene Ramos, MPA Student SIPA Columbia

Ivania de la Cruz Orozco, MPA Student SIPA ColumbiaManuela Garza, The New School and Fundación Comunitaria Oaxaca

Ernesto Castañeda-Tinoco, PhD Student Department of Sociology, Columbia Leslie A. Martino, PhD Student, Department of Sociology, CUNY, The Graduate Center

Thursday April 12th, 2007.

Organized by Mexican Initiative Co-sponsored by the

Institute of Latin American Studies, LASA-SIPA, and ALAS-TC.

For this see extra Lecture file 4.

Move to file number 3 for the rest of the course material.


slides for sociology w3480: part 2 of 3 revolutions, social movements, and contentious politics...

Documents

revolutions tilly castaeda

charles tilly

ernesto castaeda

revolutionary coalitions

contentious event catalogues

event analysis

revolutionary outcomes

revolutionary situations